for eight people gathering to debate in milwaukee. we'll get insight into the political mountain those candidates will have to climb from someone who has been on that debate stage. and a story out of tennessee that is both heartbreaking and creating a political fire storm after republican lawmakers cleared the room in the midst of a tearful legislative session on guns. the latest on their increasingly aggressive efforts pitting them against the families of murdered children. but first, we knew this was coattlming.between the political and legal, and here it is. the first republican debate of the year is tonight. but being overshadowed by what's happening 800 miles away in georgia. that's where the front runner, donald trump, boasts that he'll be, quote, proudly arrested. and using it as a prime time event, planning his arrest at night tomorrow when more people are able to watch it. and even before that, working to pull eyeballs away from the debate tonight. nbc news has learned that includes not just his pre-taped interview with tucker carlson, but also sending a throng of high profile surrogates, conservative fire brands to the debate for him. and that's all the more extraordinary because it's happening right as a growing number of trump's codefendants are surrendering, one by one, grappling with the reality of facing felony charges and potentially years behind bars. at least six have now turned themselves in, including two of the so-called fake electors. finger printed, height and weight recorded, mug shots released to the public. number 7 will likely be ex-new york city mayor and trump attorney rudy giuliani, who talked to reporters ahead of his surrender, which is expected later today. >> this will be proven to be like all the rest, a lie, dishonest, crooked, you want to destroy the constitution of the united states. and if we don't change it. >> i want to bring in nbc's vaughn hillyard live in atlanta. nbc's dasha burns is in milwaukee, and carol lamb is a former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst, so vaughn, it's already been a busy day. what have we seen and heard? >> reporter: number five and six, the defendants have now gone into the fulton county jail to officially surrender and go through their booking process. that would include the likes of kenneth chesebro, one of trump's attorneys, one that is alleged in the georgia indictment to have come up with the fake elector scheme and put it into action in multiple states including in georgia, as well as ray smith iii, who is the attorney in georgia who represented the trump campaign in multiple lawsuits on their behalf in the state of georgia. you said the name number 7. rudy giuliani is in georgia, flew from new york to atlanta here this morning. we were able to catch up with john esposito, his new counsel. he's a long time major new york attorney who took the plane down with giuliani to come here on his behalf. he is presently meeting with his local counsel in georgia because giuliani will need somebody locally to also represent him inside of the courtroom, and so these two individuals, our understanding, are working up what will ultimately be a potential bond agreement that they will present to the district attorney on behalf of their client. giuliani here, we are waiting for him. i am told he will be coming to the courthouse here in atlanta. the question from there is what does this potential bond agreement look like, and will he actually go through the official surrendering process today, and of course tomorrow is the big one, donald trump himself, who touted in a social media post earlier this afternoon that he looks forward to in his words, quote, proudly being arrested here in the state of georgia. we expect him to arrive into atlanta about 30 hours from now. he will officially surrender to authorities come tomorrow evening, chris. >> while you were literally speaking, vaughn, we got a statement from rudy giuliani's local counsel, brian tevis. here's what he wrote. based on the bonds that have been set, we would expect it not to be any higher than the president's. we will negotiate that with the district attorney's office $100,000, he says would be appropriate. we need to hear what they have to say. first, are they trying to, i don't know, put it out there early negotiation for getting the bond lower for maybe some people think it could be? >> reporter: that's exactly what is happening here, and for good reason. there is plenty of concern around legal bills for any of these defendants but for rudy giuliani, he is also a coconspirator in jack smith's named indictment. of course rudy giuliani has not faced federal charges but those could be looming here, and for rudy giuliani he's looking at potentially years of legal bills that he'll have to pay, and of course when you're talking about bonds here, they are seeking to have something lower than what is been agreed upon by donald trump's attorneys here in the state, and so those are the negotiations. we're able to catch up with esposito, his attorney from new york. right as he was walking to the office with the georgia counsel whose statement you just read, i can assume they were working on that very statement you are outlining because they have to go and present their proposal to the district attorney's office before rudy giuliani or go to the fulton county jail and actually surrender or he could potentially be inside of that jail for several hours while that is negotiated, so for rudy giuliani, we will obviously are several hours away from him actually formally surrendering, knowing his attorneys are now coming up with the proposal. >> vaughn, thank you so much for that. dasha, i want to dig into the new reporting about donald trump's counter programming strategy. what is his plan for the debate besides skipping it obviously? >> reporter: well, look, chris, the former president has said that he will be, quote, very busy tonight as the republican primary candidates all take the stage at this major moment for them tonight, but he, instead, has created the split screen moment where his interview that has been prerecorded with former fox news host tucker carlson will be airing on social media at the same time. we expect that to play out at 9:00 p.m. est is saying that sparks will fly. and of course a throng of trump supporters, surrogates have descended upon milwaukee. those include don jr., kimberly guilfoyle, kari lake, congressman marjorie taylor greene, matt gaetz, and byron donalds, and senior campaign aides, jason miller. and also political consultant, alex bruzowitz, trump's top toll will be here as well, known for stirring trouble. somebody to watch out for. there's been a fight between the trump campaign and the debate about who can and cannot be in the spin room and on site in the credentialing process. a lot of these surrogates are going to be inside via credentials through other media networks even if fox and the rnc aren't allowing them on site, so it will be interesting to see that dynamic inside once we get in tonight. one trump campaign aide tells nbc news that they will be watching to see how many times trump's name gets mentioned tonight. in terms of what the former president will be doing tonight, we're not sure. it would certainly be out of character for him to not watch in some way, shape or form. his aides tell us that he's holding his plans this evening close to the vest. >> you've got a busy night ahead. thank you so much. so carol, i have to imagine that jack smith and fani willis will be listening to everything trump has to say in tonight's interview and going forward. if you were prosecuting this case, what would you be listening for that might help you make your case against him? >> if we're talking about things that others are saying. >> i'm talking about the interview he gives to tucker carlson, sorry! yes, well, we've previously talked about how no defense attorney wants their indicted client out there talking about the case. he has to be careful, of course, because he's now under a couple of orders from courts telling him he better not say anything that can be interpreted as a threat against witnesses, codefendants, in some cases court personnel and certainly jurors, potential jurors, so he has to be careful about that, and i imagine he will be because he is a smart man, and that is a line that he knows he can't cross without drawing additional problems on himself. but you've seen in the past how he says things that he thinks are advantageous in the moment, but actually, when you look at the whole history of the various cases in front of him, they turn out to be somewhat problematic because now he's gotten himself into a situation where it is now a provable lie, and every time you can show that somebody has lied about something relevant to a case, it becomes a problem for him and his defense attorney at trial. for example, when he said, i wasn't really waiving a classified document around at the bedminster golf course. that was just -- those are just various papers i was waving in the air, and that turned out not to be true, and there's other evidence establishing that. if i were jack smith or fani willis, i would definitely be listening for those moments. >> yeah, he says sparks will fly on social media. he posted that. we shall see. i want to talk about mark meadows and jeffrey clark, two of trump's codefendants, and they're actively trying to avoid having to surrender in atlanta, trying to get the case to federal court. and lawyers urged willis to delay the friday deadline, while their efforts play out, and her reply was blunt, quote. i am not granting any extensions. i gave two weeks for people to surrender themselves to the court. your client is no different than any other criminal defendant in this jurisdiction. the two weeks was a tremendous courtesy. at 12:30 p.m. on friday, i shall file warrants in the system. unquote. she's not playing around. how do you think this might play out? >> so fani willis is not playing around, and she is correct. so here's what's going on, mark meadows had to file his motion to transfer to federal court all the defendants who want that relief have to do so within 30 days of the charges having been filed in georgia. that's appropriate that those motions are being filed quickly. there actually is no reason why he should not surrender in state court at this time. his motion has not been granted this case is not in federal court. and fani willis is correct, despite donald trump's assertions that he's going to be arrested, he is not being arrested. he has been given, as have all over 18 defendants in fani willis's case, the courtesy of being allowed to self-surrender at a time of their choosing, anytime before the friday date. that is a courtesy i have not seen before. usually you're told you have to surrender on such a date. she has extended courtesies to them. there's no harm to mark meadows in being arraigned in state court if his case is moved to federal court, he can be arraigned in federal court. but i think fani willis is saying, no, i'm in control of this prosecution. you are not in control of it. >> carol lam, this is so fascinating. always great to have you on the program. thank you so much. the show down and shakedown, the new development that might keep one more republican candidate off the debate stage tonight. we're back in 60 seconds. tonight. we're back in 60 seconds (christina) with verizon business unlimited, i get 5g, truly unlimited data, and unlimited hotspot data. so, no matter what, i'm running this kitchen. 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(vo) make the switch. it's your business. it's your verizon. gop showdown in milwaukee, and donald trump's rivals are preparing to face off without him, hoping for that breakout moment to turn some momentum in their direction. it argues against conventional wisdom and the polls that the republican nomination is already a done deal. >> no, i hardly think the race is over, you know, this is not the yogi berra school of political philosophy. it's not getting late early. >> it's really early. everybody needs to be patient, including the media, and let this unfold over the next three or four months, and the right alternative to donald trump will surface. >> now, the debate stage may be a candidate short tonight after north dakota governor doug burgam injured his leg in a basketball game. he spent time in the emergency room, and may be unable to stand for the debate. msnbc's ali vitali, bring us up to speed, is he likely to be a no show? can they make some accommodation for him? what are we hearing here? >> reporter: that's one of the open questions here, my understanding is that the burgam team is doing their walk through, standard practice for all of the campaigns, and make a game time decision. pun intended because that's how he got into this instance in the first place, playing a game of pickup basketball. we tweeted about this, saying it's not the first time he has been sent to the er because of a pickup game but he's thankful for the well wishes. i think you set the stakes up for this debate correctly. it's both early and late. it feels like we have been doing this forever, and also like the race has only just begun, and i think that's the mindset the candidates are bringing here. certainly the trump campaign is trying to make this seem like it's a done deal. he's the guy that's locked up the nomination. frankly in a lot of conversations i have with republican sources, it's hard for them to argue with that, especially when you see the polling, not just in terms of the horse race but in terms of the ideology of the party, the way trump's name has been reimaged. the majority of iowans believe he won the election that he lost. they don't believe he did anything criminal in all of these indictments we have seen him be indicted for in the past few months. that's a mindset shift for conservative voters that all of these other candidates will have to contend with. those of them that are going to be on the stage, the other eight or perhaps seven of them who are vying against trump certainly will be talking about trump, but most of them have this as a plan to make this their first introduction to the electorate. the biggest audience that any of them have to this point, and a real chance to introduce themselves in a game at this point, which you know is all about name recognition and getting their name out there. i think it's why you're going to see burgum fight to be on the debate stage, injury aside, and you have people playing the expectations game. senator tim scott saying this is not a make or break night for him. telling me he knows he has the resources to stay in the race far after the debate, and he doesn't need a narrative changing performance in the words of one senior adviser. and others like nikki haley saying this is a new benchmark for her. she sees this campaign in chapters, in benchmark, and this is a real moment to show not just her foreign policy credentials but also the deep executive experience that she has, and you and i both know, she's going to stand out regardless because she is the only woman standing on that stage. voters know she could bring something different to the primary field if she were to be the nominee, and then of course there's florida governor ron desantis, his allies have spent a lot of time in the last 24 hours trying to make clear to reporters, they know their guy has a target on his back. he has been the person in quote unquote second place the entire time. they think this could be a breakout moment for him, but at the same time, when the whole stage is looking at you and the arrows are coming your way, we'll see desantis has found a way to seem affable and come off tough. that's a balancing act we're going to watch him play on the debate stage. a lot of dynamics, chris, not least of all who's going to be on the stage to begin with. >> ali vitali, i know you'll keep u.s. posting, thank you for that. also joining us, ohio's former republican governor and msnbc political analyst, john kasich. so we just played chris christie and asa hutchinson, both arguing this race is not over. there are some who say it actually starts tonight. this is when people start to pay attention. which side are you on in that debate? >> i'm on the side of yogi berra who famously said, it ain't over until it's over. one of the things you notice instead polling that came out from iowa as someone told me earlier, it appears as though people are not open to new information, republicans that being, so that really played in to trump's strength. if they're not interested in hearing anything else, then, you know, that really works against everybody else. again, it's a debate, there could be a spark. you never know what can happen, and so i'm on the, it ain't over until it's over, chris. i'm on that side. >> there are people, as you know, who say, though, what are some of these really low polling people doing there? are they simply run to go increase their profile in hopes of landing the vp slot or a big spot in the private sector? are they essentially test running for a run sometime in the future? do you think that everybody who stands on that stage, governor, believes they could be president of the united states? >> there's no way i could tell you how they think. i can tell you, i went to new hampshire, and i was at 1% in polling in new hampshire, and i beat every single person there except for trump. normally when you do that, you exceed expectations and you get a big bump, and i remember the night of the new hampshire primary. the little plane i was on, i had to throw all the staff of the plane to fit reporters on, and the next day, i went down and did, you know, all the networks, and, you know, after that, all the attenon was on trump. i never got the bump. but, you know what, i hung in there, and ultimately, this is something people didn't understand, ultimately, there was an effort being made to take this thing to the convention because there was a sense that people at the convention would come to their senses about donald trump, and that didn't happen. it became mathematically impossible to stop him, that's when i left. i was committed to the things i believe in, and i don't want to have anybody else tell me what to do. it's like me trying to tell you when to get off television. it's none of my business. and you wouldn't listen anyway. you have no right to be there, that's nonsense. i don't like when other politicians try to say t particularly if they're people that don't want to run. if you don't want to run, fine. but don't tell somebody else what to do. >> somebody who interviewed you outside your campaign bus, i will affirm everything you said about your own campaign, for sure. i did not get on that plane, by the way, after new hampshire, but we can talk about that another time. >> you needed to be on plane, chris, i mean, honestly, honest to goodness, when you exceed expectations, when bill clinton did in new hampshire, john mccain was called the comeback kid, the bump didn't happen. obviously, the big guy upstairs, he said, nope, and i got to go with him. so let's talk about how you plan this, and again, you're speaking from your own experience. others may have other ideas. teams may have other ideas. is this a broad sort of throw everything out there, here's who i am, or are you looking, maybe, to gain some ground with a particular group. for example, the associated press asked a key question, can south carolina's nikki haley, and tim scott woo the gop's white evangelical base away from trump. how do you see tonight being used most profitably for these candidates. >> i mean, look, what i did was some technical things, needed to understand how to finish a sentence and not step on my applause line because i kept talking, i needed to understand where the cameras were in the auditorium because it's big and there's millions of cameras, you want to do that, and then, you know, i wanted to go on there basically committed to understanding what i had done as an executive and also at the same time to be myself. and to be loose. and i got to tell you, chris. you walk on the stage, and you got, you know, at the time, 25, 30 million people watching, you know, you got to get used to it, and as you went on, you get more relaxed, and you want to be yourself, you want to be relaxed and also ready. ready and relaxed, those are two things. and then you've got to just put your best self forward, and people will look and figure out a little bit about your soul, too. you know, it's not just about numbers or figures or facts. it's about people looking and saying, i imagine that person being president or do i like that person and think that they have that certain leadership qualities. that's what i would do. and by the way, early on in a stage, we were there with, i think, ten at one point, in the early times, until the field widdles down a little bit, you kind of want to survive too. it's not like you do want to survive these debates. at the same time, there are probably some people there tonight who have -- who will not be back for the second debate, but let's not decide that until we get a little bit farther down the road. >> former governor john kasich, always great to see you. thank you so much. we've got breaking news out of russia, and this is potentially very big. state media is reporting that mercenary chief yevgeny prigozhin's name was on a list of passengers of a plane that crashed. ten people they report are dead. i want to bring in former u.s. ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul. let me read what has been reported, it's not much more than i said but according to russia's federal airport, an investigation of the plane crash that happened in the tavir region, i'm not certain i'm saying that right, tver, this evening, was initiated and again, a man with prigozhin's name was among the passengers, they did not elaborate further. let me get your initial reaction here, ambassador. >> pretty shocking. it doesn't sound like a plane crash. it sounds like his plane was shot down. that's what i'm reading on russian reporting. they're going to allege it was an accident, i'm sure, but it seems very strange that mr. prigozhin, everybody knows his plane, he travels, around, that that would be an accident, and i think what this might tell us is that the split between a conventional russian armed forces and prigozhin that we saw on full display a few months ago never -- they never saw eye to eye again. they have been debating, and now they took their action against prigozhin, and i suspect it won't be the end of this. there will be more tensions between those that support wagner, including, by the way, some soldiers in the russian conventional forces and the leadership at the top. >> all right. if you can stand by, ambassador, i also want to bring in chief foreign correspondent richard engel joining us by phone. what do you know or what context can you put to this? >> reporter: well, at this stage, we really only know what the russian media are reporting. they're all reporting it consistently that there has been a plane crash. that's how they are describing it just as you were describing it, that a jet was traveling from moscow to st. petersburg and crashed less than 30 minutes after takeoff, according to the top news agency. and it does seem very suspicious. many of us who follow prigozhin closely thought that this would eventually be his fate, that he rose up against vladimir putin, he embarrassed vladimir putin, he led an unthinkable, unheard of mutiny against the kremlin, and then it ended very strangely. it ended with this vague deal in which he was supposed to go to belarus, but then he was in africa, and his movements were somewhat vague and the people that i've been speaking to believed that putin was buying time, that putin needed, couldn't have just enacted his revenge right away, he needed to understand who was involved in the mutiny, and there were several senior russian generals who have been implicated in that mutiny who have gone missing. so he needed to understand who else was involved or may have been involved. and he also needed to have a better understanding of prigozhin's business network, particularly his network in africa where in the central africa republic and many other countries, he has a valuable network providing security services or i should say he had a valuable network providing security services in exchange for rights, in exchange for gold and diamond concessions. so we all were expecting something like this, and it's not surprising that the russians are describing it as an accident, but i don't think very many people in moscow, in russia, will be interpreting this as a simple accident that his plane, private plane was flying over russian airspace, and then it suddenly crashes before takeoff, before landing. >> ambassador, i want to point out that we at nbc as both of you have pointed out, we are not independently confirming this. this is coming from russian news reports. but the fact, ambassador, that this is on task, what does that tell you? is this a direct message from vladimir putin, and are you one of the people who as we just heard from richard, was expecting this? we didn't know when, didn't know how, but it was coming. >> well, a couple of things. first, we're assuming that vladimir putin ordered this. we should call it what it is, an assassination of mr. prigozhin. i should be careful, even if it's on task, we need to figure out exactly what happened and listen to the final report of what happened, although it won't be conclusive because it's in russia, but we should not jump to the conclusion yet that putin was behind this. i'm not so sure about that. maybe there are other forces that decided to take prigozhin out. there were a lot of people disappointed that putin negotiated with prigozhin. and in other mysterious assassinations, boris assassination in 2015, a leading russian opposition figure, it was very murky as to who finally made that decision. i think that's what i'll be looking forward to finding out more about, was putin behind this or was it rogue elements within his russian armed forces that actually didn't like the fact that he stood down when confronting prigozhin months ago. >> so what we'll tell you or will we ever really know what happened here? what is -- what constitutes reliable sources coming out of russia? >> that's a really hard question. they're not reliable sources. there's lots of reporting. there will be other people that want to talk about it. it will be difficult to know the precise question i this attack prigozhin or not. with nemsoff there have been speculations for years. we won't know whether he was behind it or not. >> when we're looking, richard, for who, if it was indeed prigozhin on that plane, and it's a recognizable plane as the ambassador points out, and we're looking at the possibilities for if this was not an accident, who might be behind it, you did a whole hour on the rise of the wagner group, tell us a little bit more background that may be useful as we look at what's happening here. >> so i think another way we might know if this was an accidental crash or if this was something of an assassination attempt will come from videos. there are already some videos circulating that show fire and wreckage. another video that seems to show a plane falling precipitously from the sky, not the kind of things that indicate, you know, engine trouble or indicate typical engine trouble, so i would think that u.s. intelligence agencies, foreign intelligence agencies, militaries that watch the sky may have been able to track something coming from the ground, if that was what happened or there could have been a bomb placed on board or who knows. there is going to be a lot of reporting on this to come. but to answer your question, so yevgeny prigozhin was a mercenary leader, but he was much more than that. he was a close and was, assuming that the russian media reports are accurate, that he was very close to vladimir putin, was a close confidant as putin rose to power. he was in the restaurant business. he was a petty criminal, and i spoke to many people who spent time with prigozhin. we had some interactions with prigozhin. he threatened to strangle me to death. this was a volatile character who developed over time. he started out as a petty criminal. did about a decade of hard labor for assault and robbery in his early days, almost in his youth, and then as the soviet union collapsed, it was an opportunity for smart, aggressive street smart people like, well, both like putin, and like prigozhin and they rose to power, and they found each other because prigozhin opened or suspiciously because he had the best real estate and best location, he opened a chained of restaurants that became putin and his inner circle's hideouts, and then the two of them kept rising and rising and he was called putin's chef. he was more like putin's caterers, he catered to his food, a great indication of trust. a lot of people describe the russian state the mafia state, and he was one of putin's operators. he had his own crime syndicate but he was subservient to the boss, vladimir putin, but when he became outraged and felt that he could challenge putin because of the war in ukraine, when prigozhin became hyper in power, and he turned his small mercenary force into almost a combat division of the russian army that he rose up, launched this mutiny, and then if this plays out, or according to what the russians think, he's now died in a fiery plane crash, then it would not be surprising because he rose up, he was a close confidant, he was a member of the inner circle, but then he grew too powerful, and then challenged the boss, and then, well, sometime down the line a few months later, met his end, and many of vladimir putin's critics and challengers have been killed for far less than that. >> so, richard, as somebody who has been around him, and understanding that the list of enemies of prigozhin is very long, what was his security like? >> reporter: that's a good question. because he depended on -- he's such a complex character. so he begins as a typical mafioso, goes to jail, gets out, opens these restaurants, fortuitously for him. one of his customers is vladimir putin, just as vladimir putin is rising through the ranks post soviet union collapse, and ultimately becomes president of russia putting prigozhin in a very favored position. over time, his mercenary army, the wagner group, grows and grows with operations in ukraine, operations in syria, operations in the central african republic, and liken to a mafia family. he enriched himself. prigozhin's main priority was to help the boss, honor the boss, do what the boss needed and to enrich himself and his family and friends. and he did that over the years, so his security was largely his own group. it was the wagner group. he was warshiped in a way by the wagner group. he led this group over the strong cult of personality. the wagner group was known for extreme violence and brutality, including using sledge hammers to beat their opponents to death in a symbolic ritual to show how horrific they were and what the costs of betrayal could be. prigozhin, according to the russians, when they raided his house, they found sledge hammers, embossed sledge hammers, that would be given out as a state gift. he was operating state within the state of wagner, and he depends on them for security. after the mutiny, and i think that's why we're seeing this time lag, putin and the military, and talking about this deep resentment between wagner and the military, the military has been absorbing wagner, taking pieces away from it, taking control of the organization one bit at a time. and that would also suggest that his power, his protection force was also eroding as the russian state was draining wagner of its resources and enterprises. >> i want to bring in also nbc's foreign correspondent josh lederman. in moscow it's 8:37 p.m. for people who are wondering about the whereabouts about vladimir putin, there is this brick summit, right, which is a gathering of nations who run counter to western interests. what can you tell us about that and about vladimir putin potentially today? >> reporter: well, the timing is certainly interesting, chris, because this comes as russia is trying to use this brick summit to really show that despite the isolation that the west has tried to impose on russia over the last year and a half as a result of the war that it still has major and close allies around the world, including these bricks nations. ironically, president putin himself could not attend in person specifically because of the war in ukraine and because there are war crimes charges against him at the international criminal court. south africa where the summit is taking place is a member of the icc and so presumably putin could have been arrested if he stepped foot into africa, but nonetheless, it is notable that this is a time when russia and the bricks nations are really trying to exert influence over these other nations in africa, and perhaps no character is more intertwined with russia's efforts to exert and project its influence throughout africa then yevgeny prigozhin. he had been all over that continent. in fact, the last time that we heard from yevgeny prigozhin was a couple of days ago in a video that was purportedly shot somewhere in africa where he talked about russia freeing the nations of africa. continuing to do the work that the wagner group was doing in many of those countries there for much of the time, with strong support from the russian government. the other thing we should point out, chris, there are going to be a lot of people in russia and in the west who are going to want to see definitive proof that prigozhin is dead before they believe it. remember, it was not that long ago that we thought that prigozhin was in belarus after there was this big announcement of this deal, he was going to go to belarus with his fighters, then it turned out, he was not in belarus, he was actually in russia. so there has been a lot of muddy waters surrounding his whereabouts. we've learned several times now after the fact that what we believed to be the case, including in some cases from russia state media reports was, in fact, not the case. there's going to be a lot of skepticism until what exactly took place until more definitive facts come to light. chris. >> josh lederman, thank you so much. ambassador mccaul when you're talking about this summit and vladimir putin and his power base, a lot of culmination around the length of the war in ukraine, how it has raised serious questions about how they had mishandled, misplanned in every way, didn't really have an idea of what they were getting into, and now they found themselves into this extended war. they have seen a high number of casualties. they've seen the toll that it has taken economically. what does this say or is there a message that is sent to the russian people? is there a message sent to the world whether or not as both you and richard have pointed out it ends up being vladimir putin behind this, does it nevertheless send a message, what do you think the reaction of the russian people are to this reporting? >> i think the message is that the government, putin's reyeem -- regime is in disarray. he just assassinated, allegedly, we need to know the facts, i understand, but if this turns out to be what it looks like, he just assassinated one of the guys who has led thousands of soldiers fighting in ukraine. i think that's very important for people to understand. yes, he's a mercenary. yes, he's a thug. he's a terrorist, right, he was a terrorist, as richard was talking about, but in russia, the wagner group is also celebrated as being fierce fighters in ukraine. and my ukrainian colleagues say the same, that they were fierce fighters, all of a sudden their guy has been taken out, and i just can't imagine that there won't be some response from those thousands of soldiers. the idea that they're just going to fall in line and join the regular armed forces or just do mercenary work in africa. i suspect we're going to see a lot more drama, a lot more fighting between the remnants of the wagner group, and those in the russian military that supported them. >> what will you look for, richard, in terms of any kind of reaction, particularly among those fighters that are left? >> reporter: so some context is important. prigozhin, if you think of him as a mafia operator. then he has his operations in africa. they were extensive, they were profitable. he built up almost a colony for wagner in the central african republic, and then beyond that, in mali and other countries. and then when the war in ukraine, after the invasion in 2022 started to go badly for russia, and russia was losing troops, putin tapped prigozhin to turn his wagner mercenaries into a conventional army, and they fought in the city of bakhmut, and they fought very fiercely. many of them were conscripts who had been freed from prison in exchange for front line duty. according to wagner prisoners and wagner interrogators who we interviewed, it was a system that if you refuse to fight, they were shot, so they were marched into battle, fought, inflicted heavy losses on the ukrainian people, effectively leveled the city of bakhmut and were celebrated because they were able to bring victory to the cost of destroying a city, and many ukrainian lives, but they were able to achieve a degree of success on the battlefield that the ukrainian military wasn't able to achieve. so now wagner mercenaries who the russian military has been trying to absorb into the ranks of the army are effectively leaderless, so will they revolt? will they try and revolt individually, collectively. many of them are not in a strong position because they were former convicts themselves, only freed on the condition that they fight in ukraine. they're not in a very strong position to raise. many of these, thousands of the wagner fighters were sent to belarus. which is the closest partner and ally of russia, but is not inside russian territory. so if putin wanted to get rid of first thing you might want to do is plant his volatile force in a foreign country where even if they have some sort of violent reaction, at least they're not doing it on russian soil. >> so ambassador, if you're president zelenskyy, what are the conversations you're having right now with your military leaders? >> this is food news for ukraine. this is a killer, ordered his mercenaries to kill a lot of ukrainians. there's no doubt in my mind this will be seen as good news inside ukraine. second, i think they will be watching for what we have been discussing, does this end with this decapitation and these soldiers scattered about in africa and belarus. do they just dissolve? some will join the army or not, and that's the end of them, or does this lead to more divisions inside russia, inside the military. remember, prigozhin had some allies to the best reporting that i have read from russian sources inside the russian military. some of those have been arrested. those people, general first and foremost. you were showing video, i think, sitting with prigozhin, and just think about it, for a minute, if this was in the united states, the soldiers that were fighting together suddenly one of the groups took out one of the other commanders. that's got to be demoralizing, i think, to the fighters inside russia, and ukraine fighting on the side of russia. maybe it doesn't lead to a big conflict in the future, but it certainly is not a sign of strength and unity. i think it's a sign of weakness for vladimir putin. >> i want to go back to general in a bit. let my bring in andrea mitchell. i wonder if there's early reaction in the u.s. or if you've had conversations on what was anticipated in terms of prigozhin by u.s. officials. >> this is not unexpected. no one in washington is going to be surprised by this. the u.s. officials in the white house, the state department elsewhere, and obviously intelligence and in the military expected that the so called accord, where we saw prigozhin, you know, in st. petersburg, with vladimir putin, at the african summit was just a very temporary marriage of convenience that no one goes up against vladimir putin for very long. we don't know what happened here. no one knows whether the wagner group's initial reaction on telegram that was complain was shot down, or some other mechanical failure, but just the suspicions as my colleagues have been reporting are going to continue throughout the military, the russian military, throughout the world. and certainly among the russian people that the first person to publicly challenge vladimir putin just earlier this summer has now at least according to russian media reports has apparently been a victim in this fatal plane crash. interestingly he appeared in video for the first time with his video statement on telegram just on monday. >> can i interrupt you for just a second, andrea, because this is the first image we're getting that we're able to show, and at the same time, we're getting a statement from the russian ministry of emergencies, the legacy aircraft crashed while flying from moscow to st. petersburg, they say. there were ten people on board, including three crew members. according to preliminary information, all on board were killed. emercom of russia is conducting search operations. again, sorry to interrupt you, but that's the very first image, andrea, we have from what we believe is that crash site. >> it's an incredible image, and it's obviously from a russian official media source, government source. we were just surmising that this comes so suddenly. we don't know the circumstances yet. it will be a lengthy investigation and a lot of intelligence has to be gathered as to whether we ever really know what happened here. but just monday, prigozhin was on video talking about what they were about to do in africa. where clearly according to the agreement with putin and the kremlin in the immediate aftermath of that mini rebellion, not operate in ukraine, in africa, there were enormous riches, billions of dollars to be gained, where prigozhin had, you know, made all of that money as richard engel has reported so brilliantly, you know, in the central african republic, and elsewhere, where people, you know, he and his troops were providing the basic security for these dictators in return for getting the wealth, the uranium, the gold, the diamonds, and the other minerals, getting all the wealth from the people who were basically enslaved workers, getting none of the wealth from their country. trying to make end roads in niger. they were not. that was the center piece of the u.s. efforts to put a stake in a democratic briefly held leadership there in niger. and of course with president bazum now still under house arrest under very difficult circumstances we now have a u.s. ambassador as of this week finally on the ground there. but we've had a very small mission, and not a career level ambassador who is now in place there. so niger was very much a target of opportunity for the wagner group as are other african countries that are, you know, rapidly falling in disarray. sudan is most notably one that has been raised at the security level of the u.n. security council in recent weeks because of what the u.n. is calling a genocide there. >> it raises the obvious question, andrea, of what this means for the wagner group in africa? >> well, it's going to be the leadership issues, the kind of leadership issues that richard engel was describing, also mike mcfaul. there's going to be probably al struggle for leadership there, and whether, you know, who's going to take that over and how that is going to be -- how that's going to come unwound, you know, remains to be seen. and very importantly, whether this is going to, as ambassador mcfaul was just saying, spark further divisions, within the russian military that has performed miserably in ukraine and making a strong stand in the counter offensive against kyiv. >> we were talking with josh lederman about the muddled waters, richard, of prigozhin. obviously we talked about the video that came out just a couple of days ago, but we done know when that was shot, where that was shot, what do we know about his whereabouts and the way he's been operating over the last days and weeks? do we know much? >> richard had to go away, but ambassador mcfaul, what do we really know? >> i think prigozhin thought he had a good deal. i think that's what's interesting about what happened. remember to remind everybody, he led a mutiny. he started to march towards moscow saying the official russian military was not doing the right things, and he was deliberately not trying to take down or criticize vladimir putin. very important to understand. that was his strategy. putin cut a deal with him. he went to belarus for a while, but then he came back, and most recently, when vladimir putin was hosting two dozen african leaders in st. petersburg, prigozhin was having side meetings with many after can leaders. from his perspective, he thought everything was in good standing with the kremlin. @the fact that he was flying a plane out of moscow instead of taking a train or doing something safer suggests he thought things were fine with the kremlin. obviously it sounds like he was wrong in that assessment. >> are you surprised at all that he was making those movements within russia from moscow to st. petersburg? >> again, it was confusing because initially putin called him a traitor on national tv. right? think about the president of the united states, president biden gets on tv from the oval office and says these guys are traitors, we are going to deal with them accordingly and then just a few hours later, he cut a deal with them. that created all kinds of speculation about what putin's loyalties are with prigozhin or the armed forces. until 30 minutes ago, it seemed they had cut a deal, and he was cooperating with him. cooperating with him to keep his mercenarying -- mercenaries all over africa. we keep calling him a mercenary, but 100% of their contracts came from the russian state. they were an arm of the russian state. until an hour ago, i would have said putin was having his cake and eating it too. obviously something changed or maybe something changed long ago and putin was looking for his moment, but we don't know that yet. i want to underscore, we do not know if putin ordered for his plane to be shot down. we may never know, but i i want to put a question mark to that and not just assume that we know that this is what vladimir putin himself personally did. >> i also want to bring in general barry mccaffrey. retired four star army general and msnbc military analyst. let me put one more piece here. before you came on, general, we were talking about general sergey se rot kin, well known as one of the most grew brutal. he hasn't been seen from or heard from since the rebellion. before we got word of the plane crash, he was, they said, dismissed as head of the country's aerospace force. now prigozhin potentially on the plane. your reaction to what you're seeing, general. >> we won't really know. we're never going to know. we're every going to see an independent investigation that determines how the plane went down that we'll believe. we should not try and understand this from the u.s. perspective. these people are gangsters. they kill each other. putin is the head gangster. it seems self-evident when prigozhin went to the limit publicly calling the ukraine war a mistake, that nato wasn't at fault, it was us and we did it for corrupt reasons, i thought he was a dead man walking from then on. and those whom he has contaminated in the russian regular military will now also be called out of the herd. i think it's likely putin trying to consolidate power. in the long run, putin's cooked. there's no way he pulls this off for several more years, but in the short run, he's in charge. the gru, the fsb, the armed forces, the interior ministry, they're going to cooperate to try and eliminate prigozhin's influence, but the wagner group is defunct. there's no way the gru can't take over the existing operations in africa. i think it was a real attaboy for putin as the head gangster. >> what are you watching for in the days ahead, general? >> all that's important to us in the west should be the defense of ukraine. they're fighting for their freedom. they understand the consequences if the russians ever grab the country in total, which is what putin is trying to do, not just at donbas and the crimea, he wants to take ukraine back under his control, and then eliminate the military elites that have defied him. so what impact does this have on the war in ukraine? probably not much. if anything, it tells the russian armed forces putin's still got his hands on the controls. so we got to follow his orders. what i want to see is how can nato and the united states finally get the tools needed to ukraine and armed forces to fight and win, rather than to try and, you know, make sure putin doesn't have a catastrophic loss, lose crimea, et cetera. we need better technology, long range missiles. f-16 fighters. 500 to a thousand u.s. armored vehicles, bradley and abrams tanks. we got to make sure these people aren't -- ukrainians aren't bled to death in the coming two or three years. >> andrea mitchell, what amount of intelligence, human and electronic does the u.s. have in place as they're looking to see what they can find out about what happened here and who's behind it. >> u.s. officials clearly are talking to nbc moscow and talking to all of their sources. we're talking about the state department and other officials as well. so this is a mystery. and as mike mcfaul was pointing out, we cannot assume anything about putin. u.s. officials were saying since the piano rebellion, they did not think this accord would last long. they thought eventually vladimir putin would not tolerate what he had said was a traitor's behavior by prigozhin. there will be a lots of, you know, in this death match, this war with ukraine, and at a key point in the counter offensive. chris? >> two men of extreme brutality. two men you could argue, part of a cult of personality who have led very differently, right, for a very long time. andrea mitchell, i can't thank you enough. we appreciate it. we are coming up on the top of the hour. just half a minute away from 2:00 eastern time. so we want to catch everybody up on the breaking news that we're following out of russia. yevgeny prigozhin, the mercenary chief who led the march on moscow two months ago, now listed among the passengers on a plane that crashed. now this is according to russian state media. three of the people on board, they say, were staff, seven were passengers. nbc's josh lederman is following this story. also with us, former u.s. ambassador to russia, michael mcfaul, former four star general, barry mccaffrey, and msnbc national security analyst, clint wants. josh, bring us up to speed, what's the latest? what do we know? >> reporter: what we know is coming from russian state media, which has spoken to the emergency services authority in russia, which said that this plane crashed, this private business plane between moscow and st. petersburg with three pilots on board, seven

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