wonder why that was all needed in there? the agreement ordered him to not make any threats against any witnesses or codefendants, including threats made on social media. the ex president's ordered not to discuss the case with his 18 codefendants. one of those defendants, trump attorney and fake electors schemer, kenneth chesebro, had his bond package set at $100,000 today, after his attorneys were spotted meeting with prosecutors at the courthouse. meanwhile, codefendant and fake electors, john eastman, also had his bond set at $100,000. all 19 defendants, trump included, including him of course, have until friday to surrender. and all of this is happening as the majority of republican candidates seem to be on a whole another planet, pretending like this isn't actually the weirdest and the most unprecedented debate week in history. just to look at the last few days. a few of the candidates seem to be having a hell of a time at the iowa state fair this weekend, good for them. for arkansas governor, asa hutchison, seemed to enjoy cooking some burgers. will hurd took a selfie with a supporter. every major republican candidate, except the one who has just been indicted, participated in a forward-looking policy driven forum in georgia. that all sounds refreshingly normal-ish, right? it's normal. maybe we are back to normal. except here's the problem, the big problem. things are not normal. the most important photo for history books this week, when we all look back, will not be of republican candidates cooking up burgers or standing onstage debating energy and tax policy on wednesday. it will be the mugshot of the ex president of the united states, from when he surrenders. for the fourth time, in just over four months. on charges that he orchestrated a criminal conspiracy to steal the 2020 election in georgia. on wednesday, the day of the debate, trump plans to release a prerecorded video on social media with the tv guy, formerly employed by fox. the next day, he may reportedly turn himself in. here's the crazy thing, as if all of that isn't crazy enough. despite the indictments thing, the jail thing, and even the mugshot thing, donald trump is still absolutely crushing everyone in the republican field. by double digits. coming up, we will talk to steve kornacki and -- and i will pollster and sell sir that shows trump leading desantis by over 20 points. that's an interesting date underneath there as well. those candidates do not know exactly what to do with those numbers. they haven't moved that much in a while. so they keep talking about looking forward, and not looking back, instead of attacking trump head on. >> i don't think it serves us good to have a presidential election focused on what happened four years ago in january. so i want to focus on looking forward. i don't want to look back. >> we have to move forward. we've got to quit living in the past. >> i look forward to having a conversation, and frankly, even a debate about the future of this nation. >> i think we need to move forward as a country. >> we've got to be looking to the future, not to the past. >> but the problem is that all of this talk about looking forward, which by the way, is very normal campaign speak. only ignores the biggest political elephant in the room, donald trump. or maybe he's not the room, if you're talking about the debate on wednesday. it's based on this argument they all seem to be making that the trump indictments have nothing to do with the policy issues presidents deal with. that is just the destruction over here. there is this cop out argument that you can either be talking about trump, his legal issues in the past, or policy in the future. there are a few more fundamental policy positions for presidents then how you view democracy. and national security of the country you want to lead, including their national security secrets. so let's start with the federal indictment around trump's mishandling of classified documents and obstruction of justice. holding on to classified documents, including nuclear plans, waving iran war plans around with a disregard for the impact on national security and the people serving you around the world is a policy position. then there's the other federal indictment brought by special counsel, jack smith. for trump's attempted scheme to steal the 2020 election. believing your victory, your win is more important than the will of the public, is a policy position, as a sidebar, one that dictators take. attempting to bend the justice system to benefit you is a policy position. you don't see the role of an independent judiciary, that's a pretty important position to have. have a conversation about policy issues, we can all embrace that. but don't leave the core ones of the future of our democracy to protection of our national security secrets out of the conversation. because silence on those should be taken as complacent agreement with the policies of the current and overwhelming republican primary front runner. joining me now is congressman jamie raskin, democrat of maryland who is a member of the january 6th committee. as i've been taking all of this, as we all are, and what to expect for this week, i've been wondering what jamie raskin thinks we should be watching for. how do we wade through this and figure out what is important to be looking out for this week? >> well, i'm looking for any policy substance at all, jen. donald trump basically wiped out the idea of there being a party platform. the republicans haven't really had one for a long time. the platform is whatever donald trump tells them to think about, any particular issue. what is their position on climate change, for example? they are in complete and total denial about it. it is 115 degrees for a month in arizona, the water is 101 degrees in the ocean in florida. they have nothing to say about climate change. nine inches of rain in vermont, and a mass death toll in hawaii, and they act as if nothing is happening. i will be curious to see if any of them even raises the question of climate change, and what could be done about it. they are talking about pardoning donald trump. trump is talking about pardoning the insurrectionists, the proud boys and the oath keepers, for their violent assault on our police officers. they are racing to see which can be the first candidate to say he will be the one, or she will be the one to pardon donald trump for his crimes. even before he is convicted, even before the evidence has been shown in court, in a jury of his peers has been able to pronounce upon what crimes he may have committed. so, the problem is that they will all talk about it, they want to get to the future, they want to get beyond this. the problem is that donald trump is their future. donald trump is their past and they're present. he operates like a cult leader. they operate like cult followers, except for chris christie and mike pence, depending on what day it is. >> it all goes through trump. now, trump just posted on truth social that he plans to surrender, turn himself in on thursday. that's a little news that just broke this evening. there are many ways the moderators can ask a question on wednesday night about his legal issues, about the indictments. they indicated they are going to in some capacity, we will see. i know you are not advising fox, but what do you hope they ask? >> well, again, i would ask whether they have any platform for the real issues facing the country. before the dobbs decision, all i heard from republicans in the house was that abortion was murder, and it was a genocide, and it should be a crime. they all signed up to make it a federal crime, then after dobbs and after the good people of kansas, and a bunch of other states have completely repudiated their right wing extremism against women's health care, and sovereignty over their own lives, now the cat has got their tongue. they don't mention abortion anymore. i would like fox to nail them down on this, at least for the anti choice movement, if not for the rest of america which stands up for freedom. how many of them would support a federal law banning abortion across the country? which i think is pretty much dogma within the republican caucus, certainly in the house side. i don't know about where the senators are on it. so, i would be interested in that. i would be interested in whether they have any plan to deal with the cataclysmic consequences of climate change, which are upon us. whether they are willing to break from the carbon barons who have been dictating everybody's complete indifference within their caucus to the climate catastrophe that we are facing. do they have any plans for the country, in getting out of this, or is it just more drill, baby, drill stuff? . what is their platform on extremism and fanaticism? the reappearance of authoritarianism. look at what is happening in florida with the war on education. do they agree that slavery was basically americas first apprenticeship program? i mean, is that going to be standard republican party doctrine? fox may be interested in teasing out who is going to be the new ultra maga trump. fine, let's let the country look and see what happened to their party. because they have taken the party of lincoln, the party of freedom and anti slavery, and anti no nothing-ism, plo emigration, they've turned it into an authoritarianism cult of personality. just like the republicans replaced the whigs, maybe another party will come on and try to replace the republicans. i do believe donald trump is dragging them down to a historic defeat in next year's elections. >> before i let you go, i just want to quickly ask you, i know you've been traveling around the country talking to a lot of voters. are people asking you about the indictments, and about the legal issues? or is the majority of the conversation about other issues? >> well, people are asking about both. people understand that climate and democracy are now intertwined, for example, as issues. choice and democracy, freedom and democracy are intertwined as issues. the vast majority of the people reject donald trump, biden of course beaten by more than 7 million votes. we are just adding 15 million new young voters in 2024, the question is, will people's right to vote be respected and honored? or are the republicans going to be able to continue with the gerrymandering, the voter suppression tactics, the right-wing judicial activism, which has nullified so many peoples voting rights. people understand that we've got to defend democracy in order to confront the real issues of our time. we know that the autocrats and the kleptocrats and the plutocrats are not going to deal with climate change. they believe that they live air conditioned lives and vladimir putin and donald trump and orban they are going to be fine. they don't care about climate change. for the rest of humanity, this is a crisis facing us. who is going to deal with it? with all of our flaws and imperfections, the democrats are going to deal with it. that is the message that i've been taking out into the country. i think that america feels that, democrats are the party of democracy. in fact, that's what fdr called us. the democracy. today, he could not be more fitting title. >> congressman, jamie raskin, but thank you for always returning as to what actually matters, and what people actually care about. thank you so much for joining me this evening. still ahead, the ex president says he will turn himself in on thursday. what we know about donald trump's bond agreement in the terms of his surrender, coming up next. i suffer with psoriatic arthritis and psoriasis. i was on a journey for a really long time to find some relief. cosentyx works for me. cosentyx helps real people get real relief from the symptoms of psoriatic arthritis or psoriasis. serious allergic reactions and an increased risk of infections or lowered ability to fight them may occur. tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms, had a vaccine or plan to or if ibd symptoms develop or worsen. i move so much better because of cosentyx. ask your rheumatologist about cosentyx. when i first learned about my dupuytren's contracture, my physician referred me to a hand specialist. and i'm glad he did, because when i took the tabletop test, i couldn't lay my hand flat anymore. the first hand specialist i saw only offered surgery. so, i went to a second hand specialist who also offered nonsurgical options - which felt more right for me. so, what i'd say to other people with dupuytren's contracture is this: don't wait —find a hand specialist trained in nonsurgical options, today. >> i am giving the defendants i found mine at findahandspecialist.com. the opportunity to voluntarily surrender, no later than noon on friday, the 25th day of august, 2023. >> so, this is surrender week for donald trump, as well as the 18 others charged with racketeering in georgia for plotting to steal the 2020 election. they have all have over just three and a half days on noon on friday to surrender at the fulton county joining to avoid facing arrest. we just learned that the ex president says he will surrender in atlanta on thursday. today, his lawyers were at the fulton county courthouse where his bond was set at $200,000. let's just sit with that for a second. by the end of this week, the ex president of the united states will be out on bond in yet another jurisdiction. fulton county district attorney, fani willis, is also trying to stop trump from continuing his practice of making direct or indirect threats or both against people involved in his various criminal cases. she ordered him to, quote, perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case, or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice. that includes no threat of any nature against any codefendant, against any wendy's, against any victim, or against the community. it makes clear that this applies to, quote, posts on social media or re-posts or posts, or retweets, if you want to call them, that made by another individual. some of trump's 18 codefendants also got bond orders today as well. trump is so far the only one with these detailed orders against making threats, i wonder why? all of this comes while the ex president and his legal team are now negating three other indictments. the possibility that some of his codefendants in georgia may have a big incentive, a huge incentive to cooperate against him. for one thing, trump could never pardon any of them. even if he returns to the white house. this is a state case. of course, all of this is just a fraction of his current legal problems. glenn kirschner is a former federal prosecutor and host of the podcast that -- i ankush khardori, a contributing writer for new york magazine. glenn, i just wanted to start with these kind of warnings from the judge. that is very strong language. we've heard it in some of these other cases. what can she actually do? and what do you think she should do, if he violates? it >> i don't think fani willis owns a pair of kid gloves. have a feeling if donald trump violates these conditions, how could he not, jen? he can't post or re-post anything that might be intimidating of a witness. not just a week ago he did something that if he did it now, it would be prohibited by this order. he said, look, i know that former lieutenant governor, jeff duncan, is about to testify before the grand jury, quote, he shouldn't. >> he has already violated, essentially. >> he would. have >> he would have. >> interesting, that actually constitutes a violation of georgia state law. that could be used next week by judge chutkan up the street, to say you did violate a convention that had been set for you. >> this is coming next monday. we were just talking during the break, i guess, about what the actual conditions or the consequences if your name is not donald trump. which is important to remember as we discuss equal justice under law. it someone else did this, what could happen to them? >> we have a pretty good example that has been in the news recently. sam bankman-fried was charged for massive fraud. he was out on bail. and prosecutors alleged, and the judge agreed, that it appeared he was attempting witness intimidation by working through the press to cede some negative information about a -- cooperator. he was remanded, that means he was sentenced to jail. the judge was not happy about it, obviously, but that's what often happens to defendants who are out on bond. in an ordinary course, it can be quite easy to violate terms of release, almost like a tripwire. trump is sort of getting a lot of benefit of the doubt. >> you also had something you wrote interestingly, recently, that the addition of defendants creates pressure and incentives for those people to cooperate for the biggest target, katie which in this case, is clearly trump. i referenced, of course, in georgia, he can't pardon them. what are the other incentives? >> well, there's the traditional set of incentives. this applies to the federal and the state level. anytime you have a large multi defendant case and there is a lead defended, right, trump is undoubtedly the lee defended here. there's incentive for everyone else who might have information on him to try to cooperate against that person, to get themselves a break at the end of the day. it's purely self interest. it's not an act of altruism. they have been charged, if they end up being sentenced one day after a conviction, they are going to want all of the credit and goodwill they can generate with prosecutors. that tends to be the normal calculus. >> glenn, there has been a whole back and forth about the timeline here. that's a very diplomatic way of saying it given that trump has asked for a trial in 2026. jack smith's team replied and said that is bogus. that date is going to be set, or we expect that day to be set coming up next monday. what do you think is going to happen here? what is a viable timeline for a trial? >> let's look at what judge chutkan said previously. she said, if the defendant continues to say things, to post things that might interfere with our ability to pick a fair and impartial jury, might poison the jury pool, might intimidate witnesses, i will accelerate the trial date. he has done some of those things. so i have a feeling judge chutkan is going to set a trial date in early 2024. i also think when the defense team, trump's defense team, throws out a date that is two and a half to three years down the road, april 2026, it shows that they are not really engaged in legitimate lawyering. it really feels like they are assistant campaign chairman at this point. >> it feels ludicrous, a little bit. >> that will help, i think, push judge chutkan to an earlier trial date if they are not trying to legitimately present a trial date that it is an honest assessment of how much time they think they are going to need. i can't wait until next monday. i want to see what judge chutkan does. i think she understands that everybody, including the american people, have a keen interest in getting this case resolved well in advance of the 2024 election. >> do you agree on the timeline, early next year? >> i do agree. if it's feasible. i think out of all of these cases, i think the strongest by far concerns the january 6th federal january 6th case, and bringing that case to trial, ideally as quick as possible. i also agree that the setting of a trial date, anytime you have litigation and competing position of parties can be a bit like a settlement and a bid and ask scenario. prosecutors put forward a date, trump's lawyers have put forward a date that is so absurd i think chutkan will set it aside. it's very probable she'll set it aside. that really is the main center of gravity is going to be the prosecutor's proposal. i've no idea how it will be resolved. she does seem to have a keen awareness of the significance of this case, and it's importance to the country. >> before i let you go, and my legal education this evening, i want to ask about mark meadows. there's a range of reporting about him cooperating, not cooperating, sharing information, not. we don't entirely know the totality of it. but for each of you, i'm going to start with you, glenn, what is the best case scenario for mark meadows? >> he is in such a curious posture right now. this is like an action adventure, legal thriller. all indicators word that he was cooperating with jack smith in the federal case, both in washington and in the documents case in florida. then all of the sudden, he pops up as a charged rico defendant in georgia. i will say, when i had defendants and they had criminal exposure in multiple jurisdictions, i worked very hard to try to strike a global plea agreement that would resolve all of their criminal exposure. so we could kind of keep our cooperator close. that doesn't seem to be the case right now. it feels like maybe he is helping jack smith, maybe he has not yet formalized the cooperation agreement. jack smith has said, until that happens, you just go ahead and take care of your own little problems down in georgia. maybe we will circle back on that. >> row, quick before we go, can he avoid consequences, mark meadows? >> he. can if he manages to run the table to ingratiate himself with jack smith in hopes that he doesn't get charged with the federal government. he does have a pending motion to transfer the state case to federal court in florida with the ultimate objective being to get that case dismissed. i don't think that motion is a great motion. but it is a potential lifeline for him. >> glenn, ankush, thank you both so much for educating me and all of us on all the legal trials and tribulations we're all dealing with. coming up, nbc news has a brand-new poll on the republican primary field with some potential red flags for the quadruple indicted front-runner. steve kornacki breaks down the numbers next. isn't pretty. it's the moment when you realize that a good day... is about to become a bad one. but then, i remembered that the world is so much bigger than that, with trelegy. because one dose a day helps keep my asthma symptoms under control. and with 3 medicines in 1 inhaler, trelegy helps improve lung function so i can breathe easier for a full 24 hours. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. trelegy contains a medicine that increases risk of hospitalizations and death from asthma problems when used alone. when this medicine is used with an inhaled corticosteroid, like in trelegy, there is not a significant increased risk of these events. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase risk of thrush and infections. get emergency care for serious allergic reactions. see your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. ♪ what a wonderful world. ♪ ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy for asthma - because breathing should be beautiful. >> nbc news has teamed up with the des moines registry, in polling likely republican caucus numbers. we have brand-new numbers just out today as much of the national polling we've shown you, donald trump holds a gargantuan lead over his nearest rival, florida governor, ron desantis. he is polling at 42%, versus desantis's 19%. this is important, because iowa is the first state in the republican nominating contest. a win there or even a strong finish can keep candidates in the game. or even secure a front runner hold on the nomination. but the numbers show that things might not be locked up for the ex president. some other candidates, potentially seeing an opening with iowans. it's still very early, but the question of whether there is enough time and momentum for another candidate to challenge trump, still appears to be open. here to help dig into the numbers is steve kornacki, nbc nbc news national political correspondent. steve, you are there at the big board. we just want to know, what are you seeing with this new poll? >> jen, as you said, a big lead here for donald trump. you see a lot of reasons why he has that lead. but some questions about whether there is a ceiling here, and whether there are indeed a few candidates who could potentially move up in the polls and give trump a run for his money in iowa. first, the bottom line here is this is we asked folks who is your first choice. likely republican caucus goers here, trump has a better than 2 to 1 advantage over his nearest rival. ron desantis after 19%, trump at 42%. no one else in double digits. we also asked folks who would your second choice be, outside that first choice, here you see something interesting. we do see trump as the second choice at 10%, you could see that 40 to potentially moving up a little bit for him. ron desantis is actually the number one second choice on this list here, with 20%. but what you really see is this second choice number is spread out. there is no clear consensus, sort of default second choice when it comes to being a non-trump candidate at this point. all of these other candidates, desantis, scott, all of the non trump candidates would like to have all of that non-trump vote coalesce behind them. you see a scattering of second choices here. that is one of the things that is helping trump. it's not just that he's at 42%, it's how scattered the opposition is. i think this is notable in terms of where trump supporters coming. from even angelical christians, in 2016 the iowa republican caucuses, almost two thirds of all republican caucus goers identified as evangelicals. trump, remember he lost iowa in 2016? he lost iowa in those caucuses for ten points to ted cruz. evangelicals were a weakness for trump in 2016. has four to summer of 2023, they are powering him in iowa. he's got a 27 point advantage in this poll among evangelicals. also those indictments, the fourth to come down against trump last week in georgia, two thirds of republicans in iowa say they don't think trump has committed serious crimes. they are not weighing him down. that significantly. then you look historically. trump is ahead by 23 points right now, how does that compare to past des moines register polls at this point in republican iowa caucus races. you see the 23 point trump lead. you've got to go back here more than two decades to the 2000 cycle to find a candidate who is up by a comparable margin at this point. it was george w. bush in the summer of 1999. he was 27 points up. he did go on to win those caucuses in 2000 by 11 points, i would note though, you go all the way back to the 96 cycle at this point bob dole, they used to call him the president of iowa, bob dole was 46 points ahead in the republican poll in the summer of 95. he did hold on to win those caucuses. the margin though over pat buchanan was only three points for dole. maybe that 96 example shows how fluid and how volatile some of these races can end up being. >> so interesting, it strikes me though, second choice numbers are so important for vivek ramaswamy and tim scott. what surprised you, if anything, from here. do you see anyone with upward momentum that could actually challenge trump? >> that gets to the question of is there a ceiling on trump, and who could potentially move up in this? when you go to the ceiling question, there's a lot of words on the screen here. i think this might be revealing here. we gave republicans three options here. in terms of how they think about trump. should the republican party continue to be led by trump? 41% chose this option. he is running at 42% in our poll, almost everybody in this poll who says the party should be led by trump right now is also saying they're going to be voting for trump. look at this bottom one here. the republican party needs a new leader with better personal behavior and a different approach, there's almost a third of republicans in iowa here who chose that. almost none of them say they are voting for donald trump, or planning to vote for donald trump. this is the interesting middle ground here. folks who say that trump was a good president, but it is time to consider other leaders here, a quarter of iowa republicans chose this. trump does have some support here. ron desantis has the most in this group. but i think this is the group, this is obviously a silent pro trump group, a silent anti trump group, this is the group here right now where if trump could build some support here, win them back over, he could be unbeatable. but if there's going to be a rise up against trump, it's going to come from this group right here. in terms of who could take advantage of that, the favorable, unfavorable numbers, i do think it's interesting. trump is very popular with iowa republicans. but the highest number, the highest favorable is actually ron desantis. the best ratio is actually tim scott, 59% favorable, 17% unfavorable. there is broad goodwill for some of these other republican candidates, which at least to me suggests the possibility they could tap into that goodwill and translated into support in the polls. >> steve kornacki, it's officially this season of the big board. i know everybody is very pleased about that. thank you so much for joining me this evening. and seltzer is the president of seltzer and company a iowa polling company that she founded in 1996. their polling is considered the gold standard -- in the much important early nominating states. i know from doing money iowa college aid myself. it is the firm that just conducted the first 2024 nbc news des moines registered poll. she joins me now. anna, steve just went through a lot of it, what stands out to you in this poll? >> well, i think that what is interesting about caucus polling is very difficult to do for one thing. the reason it is is because it is a fluctuating pool of people from cycle to cycle. i think it is easy to talk about, well, it is a set group of people. donald trump has this slice. maybe that's his ceiling, but maybe that's the floor. perhaps a way to think about it differently is you can make a bigger pie. one of the pieces of data in this poll shows that among independents, trump's lead is only two percentage points. they are only one out of four of the people who qualified as a likely republican caucus goer. but what we have seen in the past is where the ground with people talking about iowa and the importance of retail politics, the importance of the ground game. that is because you can go start knocking on doors, get people committed to your lesser ranked candidate, and have them show up in sufficient numbers, that they changed the complexion of the caucus altogether. so one of those down a ballot candidates might decide, look, if i can go and identify 40,000 people who have agreed a caucus for me, it can turn things upside down for donald trump. >> that would be quite a story. with that in mind, ann, you've been doing this for 27 years, what did you see in the poll as a sign of positive momentum for another candidate not named donald trump? >> i think that steve kornacki spoke to it, which is there is good will towards some of these other candidates. there is some ill will towards a couple of them, mike pence and chris christie, for example. but the will wasn't all that favorable to them when they ran for this in 2016. that sort of his their track record here in iowa. i think that goodwill is a piece of it. then i think it really has to do with how the candidates are going about recruiting first-time caucus goers. which aren't a terribly large portion, according to our poll just yet. they were a bigger deal back in 2016. i think that is there. i think the independent voters there. i think identifying the people who are kind of done with trump, and figuring out how to build, how to position yourself if you are the candidate, in such a way that it is not off putting. but in fact, would bring more people out. >> ann selzer, very hard to poll caucus goers, you are very good at it. the gold standard. thank you so much for joining me this evening. still to come, while the republican clown show duke it out in iowa, the biden campaign is dropping big money to counter program the circus. >> there are some who say america is fairly. not joe biden. he believes our best days are ahead, because he believes in the american people. >> that is ahead. >> the wildfires that burned across the island of maui were the deadliest in modern u.s. history. so far, at least 114 people are confirmed to have been killed in the blazed that razed whole sections of the island. including the former hawaiian royal capital of lahaina. authorities say the feds -- stretches are on for the 850 people still believed to be missing. president joe biden and first lady, dr. jill biden, spent the day on the ground in hawaii. they greeted elected officials, including the governor. and took an aerial tour of the damage taken scope of the disaster. >> for as long as it takes, we are going to be with you. the whole country will be with you. you know, we will be respectful of the sacred grounds and the traditions and rebuild the way the people of maui want to bill, not the way the others want to build. as soon as i got the governor's request, i signed the the major disaster declaration. that mobilized the whole government response, which means whatever you need, you are going to get. i've appointed bob fenton as our cheap federal -- response coordinator for emily to lead the recovery work. >> earlier today, brian schatz describe the situation to andrea mitchell. >> this is the most devastating wildfire in more than 100 years in the united states, as you mentioned, 114 dead and the death toll continues to mount. 2200 structures totally destroyed. it's really like nothing i've ever seen. it's like a war zone. >> the senator also acknowledged that the last few days and weeks have not been without serious challenges. of course, it's hard for people to apply for assistance. there's a whole question about when the president should come and show support. that is true for all natural disasters and the responses to them. but i can tell you, from having worked for two presidents who responded to crises, the most important questions are not how the optics have been handled. it is everything happening behind the scenes. even more importantly, the long term commitment of time, resources, and people after the camera crews are gone. right now, there are more than 1000 federal personnel on the ground. the new york times reports that as of friday, fema had approved more than five point $6 million in assistance. including a 700 dollar payment to each household. federal workers are also finding temporary housing for survivors and hotel and motel rooms. an emergency declaration signed by the president will aid the state by covering all recovery expenses across a 30-day period, the governor designates. a visit, of course was important. figuring out the time of it is always tricky. in part, because presidential visits massively disrupt any community. even without a natural disaster. one of his it occurs, a conversation is held behind the scenes about when a president can come, when he should come without disrupting the recovery effort. or taking away resources from the emergency team on the ground, or shutting down roads. but of all the announcements that have been made, one of the most important ones, in my view, is putting a high-level person in charge of coordination over the long term. which hopefully gives hawaii a sense of a bit of stability in this very difficult time. because this is the beginning of a very long process for the people of hawaii. ♪ breeze driftin' on... ♪ [coughing] ♪ ...by, you know how i feel. ♪ if you're tired of staring down your copd,... ♪ it's a new dawn, ♪ ♪ it's a new day... ♪ ...stop settling. ♪ ...and i'm feelin' good. ♪ start a new day with trelegy. no once-daily copd medicine has the power to treat copd in as many ways as trelegy. with three medicines in one inhaler, trelegy makes breathing easier for a full 24 hours, improves lung function, and helps prevent future flare-ups. trelegy won't replace a rescue inhaler for sudden breathing problems. tell your doctor if you have a heart condition or high blood pressure before taking it. do not take trelegy more than prescribed. trelegy may increase your risk of thrush, pneumonia, and osteoporosis. call your doctor if worsened breathing, chest pain, mouth or tongue swelling, problems urinating, vision changes, or eye pain occur. take a stand, and start a new day with trelegy. ask your doctor about once-daily trelegy, and save at trelegy.com when i first learned about my dupuytren's contracture, my physician referred me to a hand specialist. and i'm glad he did, because when i took the tabletop test, i couldn't lay my hand flat anymore. the first hand specialist i saw only offered surgery. so, i went to a second hand specialist who also offered nonsurgical options - which felt more right for me. so, what i'd say to other people with dupuytren's contracture is this: don't wait —find a hand specialist trained in nonsurgical options, today. >> there is no question i found mine at findahandspecialist.com. goli, taste your goals. republicans are taking up a lot of the political oxygen right now. donald trump is getting ready to turn himself in at the fulton county jail by the end of the week. while the rest of the field is focused on the first primary debate coming up in just two days. they are all grasping for attention before that big event. chris christie is slamming trump as a coward, for skipping to the debate. as vivek ramaswamy claims to be preparing by the playing shirtless tennis. different strokes for different folks. president joe biden's meanwhile lawn chain a 25 million dollar ad buy in battleground states, the four spot titled fightback touts the economic winds while explicitly calling out his predecessor and most likely opponent. >> america is back. >> we've shown each other in the world that there is no quit in america. there is simply no quit in america. >> in small towns and big cities, we are coming back stronger than ever. there are some that say america is failing. not to joe biden, he believes our best days are ahead, because he believes in the american people. >> $25 million is a big ad buy for a democratic president, or for any president during this period in the cycle. but the big question is what else is happening behind the scenes? this republican circus is going on front and center. david plouffe is the former campaign manager for the 2008 obama campaign. he also served as senior adviser to the obama. he joins me now. david, we both have worked for an incumbent democratic the president while the republican circus is unfolding. we've seen a different version of this, maybe a little different with trump. president biden, they invested in this big ad buy. they're doing some fundraising, they're organizing. what else is happening behind the scenes, and what should they be doing in a week like this? >> i was thrilled to see the ad buy, jen. i think you have to understand that even if it's uncomfortable to spend that kind of money right now, you need to begin to set the definition of the campaign. which is, yes, your record, but i was really glad to see that they also reference to trump. as we've heard, you and i have both heard joe biden say it 1 million times, don't compare me to the almighty, compare me to the alternative. any incumbent, no matter how popular they are, has a hard time surviving a referendum. so this has to be a choice. so yes, in this period, they are thinking a lot about the battleground states. the different pathways to an electoral college majority. what kind of organization they have to put in place. what core contrast to they want to draw. i think it's different against trump than the rest of the field. i think trump gives you a lot of targets. the biggest one, people don't want to go to the drama. people he's promising another coup. the battle for the economy is always critical. i think in this presidential election, the economies went going to be the key issue, women's health care, climate change, we are going to have a lot of issues that are going to compete with it. you have to at least get to a draw on the economy. the important thing is you've got to communicate, as you know, jen, maybe it's not a great thing, but the reality is it's very easy to reach people with messages that you think are going to be most persuasive to them. that is starting now in august, and will go all the way through next november. you've got to have every channel you can to make that case. >> i remember how important it was to define mitt romney so early in 2012. that had a huge impact, i think, on the outcome. or had a big impact. the biden campaign also says they are expecting that the republican candidates will, quote, out maga each other at the first debate on wednesday. if you are sitting in their campaign offices or their war room, what are you looking for? what are you hoping happens at that debate on wednesday? does it even matter, i guess? >> that's a good question there. i will say on your first point, whether it's ronald reagan, bill clinton, barack obama, they were presidents in part because they defined their opponent. what's tricky here is universally known. this is less about defining him, than defining the position you want to have. how do you want voters to think about this? i think in terms of this debate, there is no question that i assume desantis is going to be pummeled by everybody. everybody auditioning to be him in second slot. desantis has as precarious as it is, he holds that now. i don't think you are going to see much that surprising. i assume at this point, the biden white house is assuming donald trump is going to be their nominee. the big caveat that you and i both worked on a campaign in 2008, we were given up for dead for most of us. so there's still plenty of time for this to happen particularly if trump were to startle in iowa or south carolina. i think they will be watching carefully to see the tracks on trump. this if anybody looks maybe like they have what it takes to supplant desantis. then if there is somebody, whether it's a tim scott, our ramaswamy, if somebody gets into that second position and holds on to it, then you have to spend some time planning for that scenario. as you know, back in 2012, mitt romney came out. we had three or four different plans based on who came out of the primary. >> yeah, i remember that well. there is this ever -- there's always this debate about whether debates matter. debate whether debates matter. this year, trump has said he's not going to attend other primary debates. we will see. do you see a scenario where he may also not attend general election debates, if he's a nominee, and there aren't general election debates at all? >> he's a historical narcissist. it's hard for me to see him not doing that. that being said, if he likes where the races at that point, as scary as that is, he may not. the truth is, you know, the debates helped him in 16. in both the primary and the general, as much as the polls might have suggested otherwise. certainly helped him with turnout. in 20, i think joe biden did very well in that first debate. but i think at the end of the day, the debate stage has been friendly to trump, for the most part. i think it's hard for me to imagine him not participating in that. at the end of the day, we will see. i think he is as unpredictable a candidate as we've ever seen in modern times. he basically has -- i mean, his kitchen cabinet, it's an insult to kitchen cabinets to use that term. it's a rogues gallery. he kind of keeps his own council. the interesting thing will be is if somebody begins to really close the gap in iowa. trump will be forced then at a later stage in the primary to join the debate stage. that will be fascinating. >> that is fascinating. we will all be watching, david plouffe, thank you as always. that is all in on this monday night. the rachel maddow show starts right now. good evening rachel. -- raphael warnock is gonna be our guest here live this evening. senator warnock does not do all that many tv interviews these days. we feel really lucky to have him tonight. particularly with, you know, the whole world's eyes on his home state of georgia, given the ongoing drama there that is centered on the fulton county courthouse and the fulton county jail. again, u.s. senator raphael warnock from georgia is going to be joining us here live in just a moment. very much looking forward to that. president biden is in maui tonight as we speak, meeting with lahaina residents. in the aftermath aftermath of the horrific wildfires there. we're going to be checking in on that presidential visit this hour. it is ongoing right now as we speak. we'll also be checking in on the big storm that roared ashore in southern california today. we have also got a pretty mind-bending story that's going to take us to arkansas tonight. a lot to get to over the course of this hour, but i want to start tonight with a story that no one remembers the name of. it is technically called the adventure of silver blaze. but nobody remembers that. what happens in the adventure of silver blaze is that a famous

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