tighter than anyone saw coming. at this hour the governor's race in new jersey still too close to call. democratic phil murphy has a narrow lead over republican jack ciattarelli. it's coming down to every single ballot. in virginia, voters delivered a much more decisive message, all but erasing democrats' 2020 gains in the old dominion to send republican glenn youngkin to the governor's mansion. >> together. together we will change the trajectory of this commonwealth. >> youngkin gave the gop a roadmap to victory, an ominous sign for democrats ahead of the critical midterms in 2022. nine months into the biden presidency, voters there moved away from the president, away from democrats, and right to the republican party. former mcconnell aid already predicting a, quote, epic wave next year. jonathan allen writes the goons for democrats is that they have a year before next november's midterm elections. the bad news, they're already fighting over went wrong. you might think the message received on the hill might be to end the infighting. instead, the result is a new determination to pass president biden's agenda. with me at the big board, steve kornacki. nbc's rehema ellis is in hoboken, new jersey. steve, what's the latest? >> you can see here, jack ciattarelli the huge underdog coming into this, the republican, he has gotten right up to the line of pulling off this monumental upset in new jersey. but he is right now with not a ton of votes left running behind governor phil murphy. the margin is about 15,000 for murphy. that's bad news for ciattarelli. he's already exceeded expectations but murphy's lead has been slowly climbing throughout the day today. the reason is because we've been getting vote batches in from some pretty heavily democratic places. just within the last hour, for instance, here in mercer county, they released their vote by mail, it was about 25,000 votes. murphy won nearly 20,000 of those votes. it's a big reason why he has that margin he has statewide right now. the problem for ciattarelli, what murphy has going for him right now, as you look, where else are there votes in new jersey. essex county is one big source, this is the king of democratic counties in new jersey. what's left in essex county? there are 56 precincts in essex county that have yet to report their votes. there are some issues there. but the precincts are in some of the most extremely democratic cities and towns within what is a very democratic county to begin with. so murphy going to bank some more votes in essex county. paterson, passaic county, similar issues, there are some precincts not reporting from there, heavily democratic, you can expect murphy to get votes from there as well. also camden county, a big democratic area. you can point to a number of spots on the map in new jersey where murphy is likely to gain votes here and you can't find many spots for ciattarelli to counter that. unless he pulls a rabbit out of a hat here, the story will be he gave phil murphy the scare of his life but it may not be enough based on what we see in the vote. >> rehema ellis, what are you hearing from voters about why this has ended up being the case? >> reporter: joe, what we're hearing from voters is that it was a question of the message and the messenger. one person told us who voted for murphy said he liked him a lot but he thought that ciattarelli actually was a better campaigner, somebody who was speaking to the anger and the frustration that so many people have around the economy, around the taxes, the high property taxes in the state, being the highest of any state in the country. also the anger people have about the vaccination mandates and masking. what ciattarelli was doing was turning that into his message. murphy was saying, if you like the way things are going, don't change the captain, stay with me. how did that resonate with voters? we're seeing the outcome. listen to what people have told me about how all this panned out. >> it's difficult to pick a guy you like, you feel like you're voting against someone you dislike more. >> i'm unhappy the race is as tight as it is because i think governor murphy did a better than average job handling the pandemic. i don't agree with all of his policies, but that one overrides i think anything else. >> reporter: so now, voters and all of the west of us will be waiting for all that information that kornacki was mentioning a few moments ago, that is these votes being counted from the mail-in ballots, et cetera, and what that will mean for these two candidates in terms of who actually ends up coming out on top in this election. joe? >> we'll say the and see what happens. chris, let's head to virginia. is that state a roadmap for republican victories next year in the midterms? >> reporter: republicans certainly think, joe, that they have a roadmap from glenn youngkin. and it's so interesting here in loudoun county which has always been looked at as one of these key suburban places, what the exit polls showed were exactly in line with what voters have been telling me for the last four days that i've been here. let's start with education. we all know about glenn youngkin talking about banning critical race theory even though it's not taught in schools here. but it appealed to conservatives who felt their children are being indoctrinated by liberal ideas, but also moderates who are frustrated by covid and felt their kids struggled over the last 18 months. then there's the economy. the number one issue, i heard again and again about inflation. that's tied to the other big issues which is taxes. when i talked to voters a lot of what they talked about was the cost of groceries and cost of milk. glenn youngkin said he'll get rid of the tax on groceries. they see him as a businessman who knows how to cure some of the ills in the economy. big picture, what does this mean? here is what one democrat told me at mcauliffe headquarters last night. >> this was a bell for the democratic party. right now it's an alarm bell. if we don't stop fighting with each other, unite and get deliveries for the voters, it could be a funeral bell. >> reporter: there are plenty of democrats i talked to last night and frankly some of them are in the mcauliffe camp, who are furious with washington. they say suburban voters in places like here in loudoun county put them into office because they said they were going to change washington, they were going to get things done, and they haven't made good on that promise. it's very interesting that the senator here, mark warner, just spoke on capitol hill. he said, we talked a lot about enthusiasm, there was a problem with democratic enthusiasm. 300,000 more voters turned out for terry mcauliffe than ralph northam who won the governorship four years ago. the difference is clearly that a lot of these folks in the middle liked what they heard from the republican better than they did from mcauliffe. >> all right, chris jansing, re rehema ellis, steve kornacki, thank you all. joining me now, jonathan allen and michael steele. jonathan, you asked the question today will democrats heed this warning shot based on the response you're seeing so far. is the party listening? >> no, i don't think there's been any change in the views or the activity of the major party leaders, the ones we observe in congress today, people who thought that the build back better bill should be more robust and liberal and move faster, have added on to it. speaker pelosi now trying to put family leave back into that. and on the other side, those who have been cautioning that maybe they shouldn't spend so much and certainly not so fast, joe manchin, the senator from west virginia, coming out and basically saying that the results reinforce his views. the vast majority of democrats in congress, having talked to many of them over the cows of the last several months, would like to see both of the bills move, the infrastructure bill and the build back better agenda and they would vote for pretty much anything in those bills at this point, and they're frustrated with their colleagues on the left and they're a little bit frustrated with manchin and senator sinema of arizona on the moderate side. some less frustrated with them simply because they understand being in a competitive electoral scenario. >> quickly going through and still no vote there. michael, when you look at virginia, how much that have was about youngkin? did youngkin give republicans a blueprint for 2022 or did democrats give youngkin a big opening and it's really about the political environment? >> [ inaudible ]. >> sounds like we might not have audio. there you are, michael. >> you got me. i coughed before and turned off the sound. i think it's a combination of the two. the reality is you're looking at a very nimble campaign in the youngkin campaign who did two things very effectively. one, it came out of the gate and defined the candidate. he had the little blazer on, the sweater vest, he was talking real talk to people. hey, i'm just a business guy, you know, trying to make my state better kind of deal. in that three to four-month window, there was no real pushback by mcauliffe's team narratively to define youngkin negatively, if you will, attaching him to trump. they tried to do that after the fact. the second thing that was very interesting was that last debate when mcauliffe stood on that stage and basically threw parents under the bus, under the school bus, and indicated not necessarily intentionally, that they had no role to play in the education of their children. youngkin seized on that and changed the tenor from a more national focus where mcauliffe was talking about what was going on in washington and donald trump to something that was more home-grown and local. so there is this sort of a blueprint available to keeping it local, stupid. there's no need to go dancing up in the air about these big national policy questions and worrying about senators and congressmen and women are or are not doing in washington, but let's talk about how you're going to change lives, improve lives here in the backyards of fill in the blank. and i think youngkin showed that strategy worked. and while you had trump sitting on the sidelines looking to get in, doing a double dutch move, trying to figure out how to jump into the game, youngkin was effective at keeping him at arm's length and still getting trump to endorse him over and over again. so an interesting network of opportunities. >> michael, we appreciate you muting that cough. jonathan, you spoke with former republican congressman david jolly by text last night. here is what he told you. inflation is up, congressional democrats are in disarray, covid is ping-ponging and the taliban is back. maybe this was not just about the gop's message on critical race theory and culture wars. so democrats don't collectively view this as a harbinger. where does that leave the party now? >> it's interesting, i think they do collectively view it as a harbinger. they just have different prescriptions for how to solve it. that's the problem, and it's the same divide essentially you're seeing on the legislation, can say what i was talking about before. there are similar divides on the political battlefield. some democrats feel mcauliffe should have fought back on critical race theory harder and others will tell you that it was a good issue for glenn youngkin. i think chairman steele was right that nobody thinks it was a good idea for mcauliffe to say parents don't have anything to say about education in schools. >> will this always be the specter looming? >> the specter is going to be there. we just need to be honest about that. the question is how do you as a candidate or a party pivot, and where do you do that and how effectively can you do that if trump really was to insert himself. the other thing to keep in mind is the kind of candidates who will be running in republican primaries starting today, what do they look like, what do they sound like, how much do they tack toward trump? their goal is to get through a primary and they're less concerned about how they send to a general electorate that's sitting there watching the primary unfold. youngkin showed, and youngkin was lucky in this regard, joe, that he did not have to run through that primary gauntlet. the party picked him at a state convention. so he did not have to run against a hard-edged trumper. they effectively cleared that way for him through the convention process and allowed him to go in a little bit cleaner than he otherwise would have. not every republican candidate is going to be that lucky coming up in the primaries. and so navigating away from trump while at the same time kind of holding that base is going to be an interesting and sometimes difficult tactic going into a general election. >> good point heading into next year. jonathan allen, michael steele, thank you both for your analysis, we appreciate it. up next, a vote on voting rights set to take place at any minute in the senate. if republicans block it, about busting the filibuster finally be in play? 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>> nowhere. they're not going to blow up the filibuster. there's been no change in that. i know that democrats are frustrated but joe manchin and kyrsten sinema have made abundantly clear that they're not interested in blowing up the filibuster. voting rights, until they have some sort of change in view, is not going anywhere. republicans have been uniformly against getting rid of the filibuster as have sinema. what people may not understand is that joe manchin is a supporter of the filibuster. it would be difficult to see a scenario in which he would blow up the filibuster which he, again, supports. >> this next question for joe manchin comes up from democrats, they have new urgency to pass the president's agenda after last night's election defeats. family leave is back in the spending bill. but joe manchin, is he ever going to support that if he's concerned about the cost of all this? >> the important dynamic to keep in mind here, and punchbowl reports about this, the house and the senate are moving farther apart. there was in idea in the house they would not vote on a reconciliation bill that the senate couldn't pass. now the house has decided to add back in paid leave which joe manchin has not bought into. they have added in a provision to lift state and local tax deduction caps for five years, something that bernie sanders and even bob menendez of new jersey are both against. they're moving in different directions at the moment. if you think about the timing, the time it will take to get this reconciliation bill done, this large package, the kind of crown jewel of joe biden's domestic agenda, it could take another couple of weeks, three weeks, four weeks, something of that nature because the two sides are moving farther apart. if the house votes on a bill that the senate cannot or does not want to pass, the senate is going to alter it, send it back to the house, and the house will have to consider it again. this is like step one or two of a very long process that the democrats are first beginning to get into. >> jake, let's take the pulse on capitol hill after these results in new jersey and virginia. what is the reaction from democrats there right now? >> yeah, so it's split. this is a typical thing when it comes to congress. no one agrees what the takeaway should be or is when it comes to this election in virginia which is the most important one. i would say obviously new jersey flew under the radar, the election is close but phil murphy seems to be pulling it out at this point. some democrats say it's -- tim kaine said it's because democrats didn't pass an agenda soon enough, others say it's because democrats went too far left. joe manchin says all he hears about is inflation and the rising cost of goods and people need to listen to their constituents back home. of course constituents in one state are different than constituents in another state. there's no unified case for why democrats lost virginia which has been a blue state for a number of presidential cycles, has not had a republican governor elected since 2009. people are going to take all different messages away from this. >> jake sherman, thank you so much. right now let's take the pulse of one senator, democratic senator tammy baldwin of wisconsin. thanks so much for joining us. i want to get your reaction from what we heard from your colleague, senator tim kaine, earlier, talking about the election in his home state. >> let congressional dems, it's humbling to stay it, if we had been able to deliver infrastructure and reconciliation in mid-october, he could have sold universal pre-k, affordable childcare, infrastructure, creating jobs. >> so senator baldwin, do you think that's true, that if democrats had delivered on voting rights, on infrastructure, we might have had a different outcome in virginia? >> you know, i think the takeaway lesson from virginia is that all politics is local. and yes, i wish we had passed the build back better budget and the infrastructure bill before. but we are passing it now. and those results will be felt at the local level. and so, you know, i think even the previous quote from senator manchin, he's hearing about the rising cost of things back in virginia. the build back better budget is all about giving working families tax relief and giving working families -- helping them afford the things that they struggled with, whether that's childcare or seniors paying for home care, and everything in between. that is exactly what the build back better budget does, is lower costs for working families. >> so as we head into the midterms, what's the solution then for democrats? is it to lean more into progressive policies or how do you try to emphasize those local issues even more? because what happened in virginia clearly didn't work. >> yes, so, you know, as was said, we listen to our constituents, what are they struggling with. right now i think the prescription is to pass the build back better budget along with infrastructure. i don't want to forget the innovation and competitiveness act which also re-shores jobs that have gone overseas in critical supply chain areas. all three are the biden build back better agenda. this will be felt in many cases immediately, for those who perhaps left the workforce during the pandemic and are now unable to return because of the cost of childcare or the lack of availability of it, or other challenges that they face. >> let's talk about the fact that four weeks of family leave now back in this. how do you think your colleagues, your moderate colleagues like joe manchin who have objected to that, what's that going to do to this, could that put this in jeopardy? >> i support paid family leave. we're one of the few industrialized countries in the world that doesn't provide it. no one should have to choose between a paycheck and their own health or the health of a loved one. we need -- and it's obviously something that helps people remain employed while dealing with those challenges in life. and so i support it. but we know ultimately when this comes to the senate, it has to pass two hurdles. one is our parliamentarian is going to look at every provision in the bill to make sure that they can proceed using the budget reconciliation process. i don't want to get too much in the weeds here, but that will happen next week if the house passes the build back better budget this week. and then the following week, we will be able to vote. and we know the other hurdle in the senate is getting all 50 democrats. >> you heard it right there, two hurdles still ahead. senator tammy baldwin, thank you for joining us, we do appreciate it. >> thank you. still ahead, kids 5 to 11 can now get the covid vaccine. but if you're looking to get an appointment, there are some differences you should know about. also the supreme court takes up one of the biggest gun cases in years. we'll look at how the justices might be leading. t how the justs might be leading they need customized car insurance from liberty mutual so they only pay for what they need. what do you say we see what this bird can do? woooooooooooooo... we are not getting you a helicopter. looks like we're walking, kid. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ to make progress, we must keep taking steps forward. we believe the future of energy is lower carbon. and to get there, the world needs to reduce global emissions. at chevron, we're taking action. tying our executives' pay to lowering the carbon emissions intensity of our operations. it's tempting to see how far we've come. but it's only human... to know how far we have to go. ♪upbeat music♪ transitions™ light under control. ♪upbeat music♪ transitions™ signature gen 8™ available now, in 4 vibrant style colors. transitions™ children between the ages of 5 and 11 are now eligible for pfizer's lower dose pediatric vaccine. that includes 28 million american children. doses are going into arms as we speak. >> it was just a sharp pain and then it started feeling better. >> i can be back to normal in my classroom and in the school so we can have classes all together. >> i have the vaccine and live is just going to be better. >> good to hear that reaction from kids. according to a new survey, some parents aren't convinced it's safe. while those grownups may have gotten the shot themselves they may not be ready for their kids to be first in line. joining me now, nbc's cal perry outside children's national hospital in washington. dr. peter hotez, co-director of the center for vaccine development at texas children's hospital. cal, what are you hearing from families in line for the shot right off the bat on day one? >> look, the people that were here this morning with their children ready to get the shot are incredibly grateful. these are some of the more vulnerable people within that population. just as we vaccinated the more vulnerable adults first, that's what's happening now with children. by next week, the full program should be up and running, everybody should have access to this vaccine. as you said, it's about a third of the dosage given 21 days apart. i had a chance to interview a brave 8-year-old and his father. you'll hear first from carter and then his father. >> i'm halfway to doing stuff i couldn't do before. >> we're very lucky, we're fortunate in this country to have this. a lot of people in a lot of countries would love to have a chance to have their 8-year-old vaccinated today. and we should be grateful for that. because we live in a great country and we should take full advantage of the opportunity. >> in reporting this story, i can reinforce everything you heard there. this is a vaccine with a 91% efficacy rate within this age group, 5 to 11. as you said, there are some parents out there that are going to wait and see. about a third of those polled said they probably won't get their kids vaccinated at all. but a lot of people around the world are desperate for this vaccine today. health care workers who have been on the front line for 18 months say it's a historic day, joe. >> dr. hotez, we're almost a year into this vaccination effort. you hear from kids like carter there, we get to this moment, what's the significance of this in your mind and what's it been like at your hospital today? >> i think the big game changer was this delta variant over the summer that ripped through the south, including here in texas. and it really broke that narrative that was never true to begin with, that this only affects older americans or exclusively affects older americans. and we saw unprecedented numbers of kids going into children's hospitals, even pediatric intensive care units. the numbers are about 8,300 young kids in the hospital, and about a third of them in the intensive care unit. and the effects of long covid, which is occurring in about one in seven kids that have symptoms lasting 15 months. so the bottom line is with this delta variant, it's a serious issue for young kids. this is the need for the vaccines. but there's a lot of education to do because i think a lot of parents are not aware of it or they're being aggressively pursued by an antivaccine lobby that's telling them otherwise. >> so doctor, what are we going to see next? we heard what carter said about wanting to take off his mask. what level of vaccination do we need to get to for kids to take off their masks in school? >> well, you know, the bar is pretty high. when you have a variant like delta that's so transmissible, you need a high percentage. unfortunately we're probably going to see a lot of regional variation. i say that because of the vaccination rates among the adolescents, up in the 12 to 17-year-olds, or the teenagers, up in the northeast, we see 75% of the teenagers are vaccinated. so parents are all in in vaccinating their kids, they're probably vaccinate their younger kids as well. here in the south we're looking at half that rate, 30 to 40%. it's most likely a lot of parents are going to hold off. and that's going to make the difference between getting kids safely through the school year or not, because many of us think that we're not out of this by any means. nationally we only -- we still have over 40% of the nation unvaccinated. and that means we're going to see another resurgence just like we did after thanksgiving last year. we'll see it again, unfortunately. >> that third of parents who think they'll get their kids vaccinated but don't want to do it quite yet, what is your message to them right now? >> the message is covid-19 is a serious illness among kids. we've seen already unprecedented hospitalizations with delta. mother nature has already told us what's going to happen. high rates of pediatric hospitalizations, pediatric icu admissions, and long covid. and the best thing you can do is to vaccinate your child to prevent that. and that's what we've got to really hit home on, and remember that the risk of the consequence of getting covid-19 far outweighs the very, very tiny, tiny risk of myocarditis as a result of the vaccination. >> all right, cal perry, dr. peter hotez, and of course to young carter who let us shoot him getting that shot today, thank you to all of you. next, reaction from the white house to last night's election results. what's president biden's takeaway from that defeat in virginia? virginia i just became eligible for medicare, and i'm already confused. i just called humana; i talked one-on-one with an agent who suggested a plan that fit my life. you should call too! so i did. turns out an all-in-one humana medicare advantage plan includes coverage for hospital stays, doctor visits and prescription drugs. most plans include dental, vision and hearing too. my agent told me i could save money on prescription drugs. oh! and these humana plans offer telehealth coverage. so i can connect with a doctor from my couch. and humana has a large network of doctors and hospitals. my doctor was already in their network. oh! a humana medicare advantage plan can give me all that coverage for as low as a $0 monthly plan premium. i'm so glad i called humana. humana really makes medicare worth talking about. call and talk to a licensed humana sales agent about how you could benefit from a humana medicare advantage plan. call today. humana, a more human way to healthcare. we're making the fagioli! ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ this looks great. awesome. alright. thank you! what... what recipe did you use? oh. my nonna's! she a good cook? -no. if the defeat in virginia was a warning shot for democrats, what message did the white house receive? republican glenn youngkin overperformed donald trump in key areas of that state, all but wiping out the gains that president joe biden and democrats made in 2020. we're just nine months into the biden presidency, a presidency that currently faces falling approval numbers and an agenda stymied by the president's own party. joining me now, nbc news white house correspondent monica alba. monica, we haven't heard much in terms of an official response to this bad night for democrats. what's happening there today? >> reporter: it's possible, joe, we'll get our first response from president biden himself in about an hour from now, when he is scheduled to give remarks on that news of covid vaccinations for kids ages 5 to 11. after that he could always take some questions, absolutely. my colleagues in the room are going to try to press him on all this since he did ignore those queries last night, returning at 1:00 a.m. from this european trip where just about 24 hours ago he sounded very optimistic, predicting that democrats were going to be triumphant in virginia. obviously that is not what happened. and so the white house here is grappling behind the scenes to move this into a more action-oriented plan going forward. they're going to insist that voters were unhappy with the inaction and some of the nitpicking over on capitol hill about what should stay and what should be removed from the president's economic agenda. and as a result of that, that should galvanize some momentum to see if they can get things done perhaps this week, though again we know there are still a lot of moving parts when it comes to the infrastructure vote and then the secondary build back better act. so the white house and top aides here are of course discussing what went wrong, what they could have perhaps helped messaging-wise to do better. but remember, this was a race that the president did go campaign for terry mcauliffe a couple of times, he again was bullish about the results here. but he did try to argue that the impact of whether his agenda was passed or not was not going to really resonate with voters. and in exit polls we did ourselves, nbc news, yesterday, it was true that about 50% of voters said this the president was not a factor in who they ultimately decided to support. but i think the major question going forward, since this is seen as of course a bellwether for next year's midterms, the critical 2022 races, is what the white house and democrats have learned that they will want to do differently. and that is what the president will of course have to reflect on, since he does bear responsibility here, as the leader of the democratic party. he may have a message for his own lawmakers which talking to my sources is going to be, this is the biggest evidence we need to get something done on capitol hill with time running out before the end of the year, because early 2022 is seen as the end of time and possibility to get some of these big budget items across the finish line, joe. >> monica, is the bottom line is whether the president will take away from this? >> reporter: the president went to capitol hill, he appealed to house democrats on thursday just hours before leaving for italy. he pushed back his air force one departure, even, to go do that. and he said behind closed doors essentially, get behind me, i need you. and what happens next week on the hill and also in these races could not just determine the future control of parties in the house and in the senate, but the entirety of his presidency. that is what he said to them. and i think that is the message. and that is the urgency that he had on thursday. so many people are going to say, what more could he do beyond that? that will be the real question for him today. but he will probably still have to go do that, as democrats have now set and missed multiple deadlines. the big question is are they actually going to get anything done this week. >> monica alba, thank you. happening now, the pentagon is providing new details on a drone strike in kabul that killed ten civilians in late august. the strike was ordered amid the chaotic u.s. withdrawal from afghanistan. at the time american intelligence targeting a vehicle it thought contained an isis bomb. that was challenged by a "new york times" investigation in september which challenged the military's interpretation of the events. joining me now is nbc's pentagon reporter, tara copp. what are we hearing? >> reporter: we're hearing that the military is saying that no law was broken in the drone strike even though civilians were killed. this report will be classified so we don't be able to see the contents of the report. it found that in the constraints of time, in the eight-hour window in which they were tracking the victim, the initial victim, and his white toyota corolla, they were constrained by confirmation bias, constrained by the limits of time, constrained bit fact that the -- by the fact that the u.s. had taken a public relations hit with the killing of u.s. service members, and there was agreement among the chain of command that this vehicle was intending to strike the base. so right now we're hearing that so far, there's been no accountability. they still have to look, that's the next step of this particular report, to see within that decision chain, did any of the members who were involved in the strike, do they need to be held accountable for the lives lost. >> tara, lieutenant general sayeed said it was done in self-defense and therefore should not be compared to similar strikes of this nature. what do you make of that argument? >> reporter: he was pushing that this was a matter of time. when we got the more extended briefing on all of the decisions that were made that led to this deadly strike, for eight hours they were tracking this white toyota corolla, a very common vehicle in afghanistan and elsewhere, because they had gotten an intelligence tip that a car matching that description was going to potentially carry a vehicle-borne ied to the gate. this car happened to match some of the movement patterns they were expecting, i.e. being in a neighborhood where they had seen other isis behavior. throughout the day, even though all it was was an aid worker completing his workday and going home, and his home happened to be closer to the airport, what the people in the decision chainsaw was a vehicle closing in on the airport. so in some of the other drone strikes, and those other drone strikes have also killed civilians over the 20-year history of this war, they have looked for what's called pattern of life. you know, did this person or did this person that they're targeting or the vehicle they're targeting, has it made repeat behaviors, is there something that is sticking out that makes this a particular day of concern for that target. and they had no time to do that. when general mackenzie, commander of u.s. central command, briefed us last month on the initial findings, he said going forward in these over the horizon strikes that the u.s. is trying to conduct, they will again have that luxury of time, that greater luxury of time to create a pattern of tara cobb, for joining us on this breaking story. we appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. next, gun rights at the supreme court today. it's case na could have wide-ranging effects. 44 e wide-ranging effects 44 ♪ there are beautiful ideas that remain in the dark. but with our new multi-cloud experience, you have the flexibility you need to unveil them to the world. ♪ ♪ ♪ to unveil them to the world. when the chapstick goes on. it's on. get yours on at chapstick.com turning now to the u.s. supreme court where justices today heard oral arguments in the most important gun rights case in more than a decade, the case centers around a new york statute which requires a heightened need to obtain a conceal carry permit, and it asks one consequential question. how far do rights extend when carrying a gun outside your home? concerns were raised for conservative and liberal justices, justice breyer podiumsing this hypothetical. >> do you think that in new york city people should have a considerable freedom to carry conceal weapons? i think the people of good moral character who start drinking a lot and who may be there for a football game or some kind of soccer game can get pretty angry at each other. and if they each have a concealed weapon, who knows. >> joining me now, of course, nbc news justice correspondent pete williams. pete, walk us through this case and what you think the justices might do based on what you heard today. >> well, justice breyer's concern was shared by some of the court's other liberals, but not a majority of the court. it did seem pretty clear a majority of the supreme court is going to say yes, the second amendment's provision about keeping and bearing arms applies to guns outside the home. and they're not going to look favorably on a new york law that requires showing some special need to get a concealed carry permit. now, there is no open carry allowed in new york. so the only way to carry a gun around is to get a concealed carry permit. several of the justices said it's an odd thing to say a constitutional right can only be exercised if you can show some special need. then it becomes not a right, but a privilege, they seem to say. and for that and a number of other reasons such as historical antecedents, the text of the second amendment and so forth, i think this new york law is in trouble. now, having said that, and that, by the way, would doom similar laws that exist in other states. this is a look at the strictest gun laws in the u.s., but there is another list that shows guns like -- these are the ones that i think will be most directly affected by the supreme court, states that limit like new york carrying gnlz outside the home. nonetheless, i think the supreme court is still concerned about still being able to restrict where guns can be taken in populated areas. amy coney barrett, for example, said, can't we just say that times square on new year's eve is a sensitive place? and other justices were concerned about courthouses and schools. but there was an interesting exchange, joe, about subways because barbara underwood representing the state said many people in new york are terrorized is the term she used about the idea of guns proliferating on the subways. but justice samuel alito said think of somebody who works at night and lives in a high crime area and has to commute home. why shouldn't they be able to carry a gun? that's giving you a range of the views today, but it seems like the new york law is in trouble. >> pete williams, thanks so much. appreciate it. that's it for me today. hallie jackson picks up our coverage next. coverage next. this is art inspired by real stories of people living with bipolar depression. i just couldn't find my way out of it. the lows of bipolar depression can take you to a dark place... ...and be hard to manage. latuda could make a real difference in your symptoms. latuda was proven to significantly reduce bipolar depression symptoms and in clinical studies, had no substantial impact on weight. this is where i want to be. latuda is not for everyone. call your doctor about unusual mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts. antidepressants can increase these in children, teens, and young adults. elderly dementia patients on latuda have an increased risk of death or stroke. call your doctor about fever, stiff muscles, and confusion, as these may be life threatening... ...or uncontrollable muscle movements, as these may be permanent. these are not all the serious side effects. now i'm back where i belong. ask your doctor about latuda and pay as little as $0 for your first prescription. this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to have a dedicated fidelity advisor looking at your full financial picture. this is what it's like to have a comprehensive wealth plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. and set aside more for things like healthcare, or whatever comes down the road. this is "the planning effect" from fidelity. in business, setbacks change everything. or whatever comes down the road. so get comcast business internet and add securityedge. it helps keep your network safe by scanning for threats every 10 minutes. and unlike some cybersecurity options, this helps protect every connected device. yours, your employees' and even your customers'. so you can stay ahead. get started with a great offer and ask how you can add comcast business securityedge. plus for a limited time, ask how to get a $500 prepaid card when you upgrade. call today. bogeys on your six, limu. they need customized car insurance from liberty mutual so they only pay for what they need. woooooooooooooo... we are not getting you a helicopter. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ wondering what actually goes into your multi-vitamin. at new chapter. its innovation organic ingredients and fermentation. fermentation? yes, formulated to help your body really truly absorb the natural goodness. new chapter. wellness well done. so, moving pieces as we come on the air this afternoon, watching for president biden who we just learned is set to speak this hour from the white house. officially he'll be talking covid vaccines for kids, but you know our team will be right there ready to ask him about the new political reality after those wins for republicans on his watch, and the one race that's still not overcoming up here in new jersey. they're still counting votes. 19 hours after the polls closed. the election for governor, nobody thought would be this close, is still that close. new numbers coming in by the minute. so you know what? steve kornacki, the man who never sleeps, is standing by at the big board with the latest numbers from across the state. and the numbers across the countr