Transcripts For MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber 20240709 : co

Transcripts For MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber 20240709



infrastructure. aggressives are vowing to stand firm on their real threat to their own leader. they say as of this evening they will vote down and tank watered-down deal with the infrastructure with a safety net and that spending, which, of course, faces this uphill battle in the senate, largely thanks to joe manchin, who has been driving this standoff, while keeping his cars close to the vest. you can see him surrounded by reporters, as he has been for much of the week. in fact, for months, manchin pushed back without publicly saying anything about the spending number in this second package that he would support. and no bill will pass the democratic senate without him. so all of this was the state of play. then everything changed today. with this new by washington standards a new leak which shows all the way back in july manchin set out then more specific numbers in a written summary, a topline as they call it for democrat chuck schumer and agreed up to 1.5 trillion in that second spending package, which is less than half of the 3.5 trillion that most of the democratic party and liberals are pushing for as of tonight so what we have here is a development. as a narrative matter and a story, that's interesting. as a human matter, it shows you just how far apart the democrats are for spending that could affect your life and your family's life. this changes the public's understanding of the whole clash that washington has been going through. manchin all but confirmed this leak document came from his office today as he spoke out about the spending he backs what his limits are and opposing what he views as a too large liberal proposal. i got to 1.5 was always done from my heart, i've never been a liberal in anyway shape or form. i have voted pretty consistently all my life. all we need to do, is we have to collect more elect more liberals. >> elect more liberals. he was not a liberal. he is putting out the number that is for him he says is the non-liberal level of spending he will support. he is an elected senator. he is certainly entitled to his policy stance. he said there about being consistent. he has consistently been like this on many of these policy. but this is "the beat." we do facts around here. we have to point out the other objective fact. which is that senator manchin spent the last two months in this high stakes level and many families have their education and leave in the balance, senator manchin had been acting like he had not wormgd on the numbers. >> reporter: president biden said to give him a number. have you given him a number yet on what you would like that price tax to be? >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers, i really haven't. >> 2.5 is pretty high for you? >> it's pretty high. >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers. no i haven't worked on the numbers. this is right in that line between politicians speak and lawyer speak. apologies to all lawyers it's a little folk sip. but you have done that sorry. not trying to be insulting. we are very respectful here. but you have done that. this is important as we go forward, particularly because the good or bad faith of politicians spending your tax money is also a big part of tonight's vote and the clash ahead. senator manchin did not say he was keeping his numbers private, which is true and which people do in negotiations, to be fair. he claimed he had not worked on the numbers, which his own numbers today shows is false. let's run back that part. >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers, i really haven't. >> but you have. by your own office's admission two months ago. so this matters, it's all on the line, today a top democratic staffer who worked for the leader harry reid says the memo's developments feeds the idea that joe manchin's pass all along is to pass infrastructure first and then bail on the biden safety net. meanwhile, speaker pelosi vowing her vote tonight. >> i think we're in a good place right now. we are making progress. i'm only envisioning taking it up and winning it. you cannot tire. you can not concede. it's this is the fun part. >> the fun part. we should also note amidst all this news, congress did avert that potential government shutdown and moments ago, democratic leaders are telling law makers any infrastructure vote tonight could come later after 9:00 p.m. eastern. so you take it altogether. what do we have here? we learn some. if you care about the results, which is why a lot of people watch the news, or you are just interested in learning about the people, we learned that for months, joe manchin named a number and went around in public. that means tells his own constituents and the press and everyone else that not only did he not have a number. he hadn't worked on the numbers. this goes to the heart at what's ahead. will the numbers move? which numbers are real? and who is to be believed if democrats have to put their faith aside and strike a deal to pass something, hoping they will get more good faith negotiation going forward. we begin one-on-one with a very special guest. it's the perfect guest, an insider, you want to hear on a night like this, to understand what's happening. you know he was president obama's campaign manager in 2008 and senior adviser to president obama. you have been in these rooms. it's complicated, difficult. sometimes it looks different outside the room, inside the room. walk us through what is happening. what insights you can share what is going to happen in the house vote and the manchin standoff. >> well, first of all, that's why nancy pelosi is historically good at her job, she actually finds this fun. it brings back memories when i was in the white house. listen, nancy pelosi is skilled. i think she's got a plan to land the planes here. you know this manchin memo, i guess you can call it the manchin-schumer memo. it's been clear the final reconciliation wasn't going to be 3.5. the question is how north can it get to keep manchin and sinema in line. at this point i do not buy, maybe i'll prove to be naive that this is suggested manchin's plan, he plans to bail on the non-infrastructure piece of the package. i think all these things travel together. but this is going to be a big pill for some progressives to swallow. if we end up at 1, 5, i'll make a general point, to the, tent that anybody out there in the opportunityr country who is going to decide the 2022 election is paying attention, allthey know is there is no agreement or what's in these bills and eventually, that's a solvable problem. if are you able to pass these things, that will be a big part for the next 14 months, essentially. you got to get out. right now, it's big numbers. it doesn't mean anything to anybody. democrats are arguing. i'm not overly alarmed about that. the democrats have to go community by community and media market by media market and telling the story and even more popular than what the spending is going to be used for is the tax changes and i think democrats can really lean into that and say every republican opposed raising taxes on the wealthy and capital gains. >> yeah. some in that manchin proposal as well as what is on the table in congress is basically restoring the tax rates that existed before the donald trump presidency cut them. as you say widespread support for those changes, which goes to how do you fund it. david stays with us as our kickoff expert. we want to bring on the ground libby caseer, our reporter tracking all of this. libby, is this washington as usual and you just throw out what the politicians say and that's why some tune it out completely? or does it matter joe manchin claimed to not have a number when he had one? >> well, i want to focus on one part of senator manchin's statement. he does this thing, the i'm not a liberal. this is red state is what voters want to hear. what progressives, david said, what's in it? universal pre-k, free community college, fighting the climate crisis. things that do poll well. that's president biden's agenda. progressives will say, look, this is the president's agenda, not the liberal wing of the party, even if senator manchin tries to pivot away. the democrats are saying we are in line with the president of the united states who you know you can say a lot of things about president biden, people don't think of him as the farthest left progressive driving the train. as far as senator man. manchin, there is a lot behind the cool ras and in front of the cameras. you know more about what goes on that's away from the cameras and away from reporters. but the big question on everybody's minds, can they pass anything? any democrat say fill area is not an option. whether they're talking about the hard infrastructure bill, the physical infracture, whether they're talking about the build back better plan. they know they have no way of winning mid-terms if they cannot get success in the biden agenda. let's take it out of the political range. they got to go back to voters and say we were able accomplish what you put us in office to do. will it happen tonight, ari? we know nothing is planned until after 9:00 p.m. tonight when that infrastructure vote could still come up. speaker pelosi does not like to bring up bills unless she knows she has bills to pass them. really, it's still an open question as to whether they will put this out there. she'll know. she'll have a count before she brings it up. progressives are not holding punches how she let it vote. she put it out there to let it fail. how would that be spun in the media is the word in question. >> david knows that, he was mentioning the speaker's known proficiency before and this is classic strategy, david. i mean sun su said the true warrior only fights battles they've already won and when you run the floor, whether it's lbj or speaker pelosi, you're in charge. so you have to have won the battle, know the number and execute on it, which would suggest she knows something that other people don't. that she has enough make-up votes from the republican side of the infrastructure to cover the balance if liberals defect or not as many liberals will defect as some think. lick rals vowed up into the night. i emphasized this on our program, this is a rarity. you don't usually see the house progressive caucus make this kind of maneuver against speaker pelosi. she is handling as you said in her fun way. david if manchin is 1.5 and only to budge a bit beyond that, how do you interpret schumer and others, they knew all along, a lot of people are what was the thinking? >> ari, i am really looking forward to reading coverage in the washington post and elsewhere that will get into the tiktok at the last 60 days. listen, i think at this point whether you are manchin, sinema or the progressives in the house, the only thing worse not getting your way is getting nothing done. it's still inconceivable to me that the democratic party is not going to find a way to enact the bulk of joe biden's agenda. i'll come to the politics of that. there is no guarantee the democrats will hold the trinexta. trifecta. free child care, tax changes, i think voters who worked so hard to organize and grow in 2020 to say, what did we get for that? so you got to report back to those voters that it mattered. listen, presidents, bill clrnths i was working in the house of representatives in '93 clinton's affordable care act had nine political -- republican presidents have as well. so it looks impossible to see how these pieces will come together until the very last minute. i think nancy pelosi has a plan here. i think what i'm looking forward is we haven't yet seen the progressives, actually i haven't seen it to the 1.5 number specifically. i think a big question is what is that ceiling with joe manchin and maybe sinema. if it's a hard 1.5, this will test nancy pelosi's skill. if you have a little room to move there, you can see how this comes together. the democrats will have to put away the swords. sand say, this is a historic achievement. a., make sure it gets executed well and make sure it gets out the door and do that local story-telling. which for the last few months, they haven't been able to do, because it's all been this haggling and big numbers which mean nothing to the average marine. >> it's interesting hearing david talk it through. you have been here, i'm running over because we have a lot of breaking news, libby, in 30 second, what should we watch for tonight? >> watch from the infrastructure passes or fails, it's passed in the senate, the house is where the action has to happen. remember unlike the debt ceiling or unlike the government shutdown that was looming and will be averted. this is a deadline based on politics, not a clicking clock. this is not about paying your credit card bill on time, like raising the debt ceiling. if they fail tonight, we come at this again tomorrow. it lives to be another day. this is the deadline set by politics. >> all such interesting points. thank you. let me tell viewers what's coming up. because progressives say they have a plan to brake some of the holdouts in the senate. later tonight, we turn to other important issues, eyeing what these subpoenas tell us about the january 6th probe. that's not all. it is a big night in washington. so we called in a big gun. steve kornacki is here. he'll be at the big board. i'll explain why with howard dean and michael steele. a special edition of "the beat." stay with us. teele. a special edition of "the beat." stay with us i don't know anybody who's had it. your uncle had shingles. you mean that nasty red rash? and donna next door had it for weeks. yeah, but there's nothing you can do about it. camera man: actually, shingles can be prevented. shingles can be whaaaat? camera man: prevented. you can get vaccinated. baby, call the doctor. camera man: hey! you can also get it from your pharmacist! 50 years or older? get vaccinated for shingles now. with the ww 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forward or not? there is hyperbole in the news. we have a leader, andrew levin is the co-director of the group indivisible and pushed the party to reform itself. if you go back farther, he is experienced, vermont government, presidential candidate howard dean pushed the party and went on to run it as the mc chair. so we think this is an interesting group. as we laid it out, your thoughts about this issue tonight in congress. >> i think there are three possible outcomes tonight, either there is no vote, because it gets pulled. there is a vote and it fails because the progressive caucus is holding firm and everything we know about where the progressive caucus is, is holding firm, or there is a vote and it succeeds because republicans go for it. i think it's between the first two. the reason why the progressive caucus is holding firm is this was the deal that was agreed to over a month ago, these two bills, the bipartisan infrastructure bill and build back better agenda were moving toke. they're not saying they want one or the other. they're say let's deep to the final end of this negotiation with both bills passed and sent to president biden and signed into law. i think that's what we will ultimately see. >> you are suggesting that was publicly phone that they were linked? >> oh, it was absolutely publicly phone. you know, i would go back and look at the statements by senator joe manchin who endorsed the two-track progress over a month ago. it's fought something progressives are making up or any faction is making up. this was an agreement made by the democratic president joe biden, chuck schumer, the lead democrat in the senate and nancy pelosi in the house. everybody agreed, okay, we're going to do two thing, pass the bipartisan bill and a reconciliation bill. >> you made detect the fe facetious inside of my question i'm a country lawyer, you know who never heard about it? joe manchin, he is roughly aware of big things in congress. but we did put together a little history lesson. take a look. >> make sure you understand that when people say, well, i'm not going to vote for this unless i see that. there ain't going to be no -- bipartisan bill unless we are going to have the reconciliation bill. >> how much you are not going to do if they felt there was a deal made. >> i never heard of the bill. >> you never a part of the deal? >> i never heard about that. why do you think we worked so hard to separate it? >> howard? >> this is a problem of two senators from states playing some sort of game. can i predict what manchin is doing. because i served with him. i know manchin, sinema is the problem. they're both problems. i think manchin will be there at a price eventually. west virginia makes too much money out of this. he's going to have to no home and explain to all the west virginiaians why there is no opioid money, why there is no bridges, why there is no infrastructure if he doesn't vote for this. he's going to find a way. the problem is that's not good enough because you got to get sinema. she is the sphinx of all this. nobody is figuring out what is making her tick. i have already predicted he is not coming back. that's not until 2024. you know, she really holds the key. manchin gets the inink. that's what this is about. i don't understand what sinema is doing and why she's in the senate. >> does he get ink, governor, or the pixels? >> who, manchin? he likes the pixels and the ink. i guess the pixels. who knows what is more important these days. they all read the people as well as look at the internet. >> yeah, i think all of it. the pixels, the ink. i am jumping because i have kornacki on standby, in a minute, we'llville you back, governor dean stays. in 60 seconds, we turn to the question, how do two senators have the power? steve kornacki here in 60 seconds. power steve kornacki here in 60 seconds. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what happens when we welcome change? we can transform our workforce overnight out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. welcome back to this special edition of "the beat." speaker pelosi says she will bring the infrastructure bill to a vote tonight. sometime after 9:00 p.m. eastern. major implications for americans. the entire fight shows as well as many guests tonight and other nights have mentioned how powerful one senator can be in this divided congress. in fact, our michael steele was on the show and said something that sparked the very conversation we're about to have with kornacki right now. >> google, a political map of the country not at the state level but at the county level. when you see that map and how red that map is. the country is a lot redder than 2020 pay lead you to believe. >> we did more than google, called upon by mr. steele to act. we brought in the map guru of america. you know what it is. you know who i'm talking act. it's steve kornacki on a non-election night. he is our national correspondent for msnbc, he's the author of the red and the blue. since michael suggested this, it was fair to bring him back along with howard dean who are mere for this special conversation, a deep dive on the national political situation. the mechanics of congress and just what is happening there tonight with why. so we're going to begin with steve kornacki's report. steve, take it away. >> sure, thanks, ari. what we're talking about here is the partisan distribution of voters. a couple different ways i go es to look at this. first the map that everybody knows. this is the 2020 election. biden wins. here's the electoral vote. here are the red states, the blue states. you see basically we know democrats concentrated a lot on the west coast, the northeast, somewhat in the west, biden flipped a couple states. in that clip you have michael steele talking about the county states. the 50 states in the country. there is more than 3,100 counties in the united states. so what this map is going to change here in a second, you will see all of the counties in the country. this is the red/blue map four the counties. obviously you see a lot more red here than blue. in the 2020 election, donald trump won more than 2500 counties. again, there is just over 3100 of them. more than 2500 went for donald trump. now, obviously, not every county is the exact same size. here's like a very dramatic example i can give you. if you were to really zoom in here in southern california, i will circle it. i circled los angeles county in southern california. this is a big blue county. the city of los angeles, about 10 million people. there is about 10 million res dints in los angeles county. joe biden won los angeles county overwhelmingly. in terms of population, though, los angeles county would be the same size as utah, idaho, montana, wyoming, north dakota, south dakota, nebraska, roughly. if you were to combine all of those rid states, the population would be about the same as los angeles county yet obviously the number of counties, the land distribution. there is a lot more land mass, a lot more red than blue on here land versus population. that gets to the story this divide see on the county map. here's the actual number. trump won 2,574 counties, biden 539. this has become this century at least the story of our politics. in clinton in the noon 90s won a ton of counties the interior of the country. this has become the story. this by the way, what you are looking at here is you sized every state and county relative to its population. this would be the map. this is a blob here. it looks like a rorschach test. if you were to size the high population areas to the same scale as in low population areas much lower, this would become what the red/blue map. what it gets here is the distribution of the population, democrats in cities increasingly in suburbs. republicans used to be strong in the suburbs, democrats win it by double digits. it's the rural areas in the country. this is the 2020 election, yurl areas overwhelmingly republican. we talked to the racial component of this african-americans, hispanics, core constituency. it's among white voters, this is this big divide that's emortgaged in the last 20 years, white choaters with college degrees tend to be much more likely to be in metro areas, in cities, in suburbs. this has become a core democratic constituency. democrats doing better and better with this group every election. republicans, vote white voters, this has become more and more of a republican constituency. so it really translates into that map. it's metro areas, it's cities. that's where the democratic strength is. it's the rural aevgen-american south. otherwise, when you get outside of the rural african-american south, it's basically all red. that's what the geographical map looks like. >> it's fascinating. we listed elegs nights. you are saying that breakdown is a crash course in what's happening of course in the congress right now, in particular, some people might say, oh, well, counties are by land. i just show us. i want to get michael if, democrats used to do better as you showed in '96 across that land. that shift has become more polarized. michael, take it away. >> you know, look, steve incapsulated what i said at the time i had to say it in that clip. look, the reality of it is, and my basic point is, everyone likes to look at the top line. they like to look more broadly at the states, steve walks us 32 you that every election cycle. what i appreciate about what he did just now was to take it a little bit further down, a little bit more gran you laer to see why the republicans begin to behave the way they behave. they have strength in places that you otherwise wouldn't think about. even when you pull out that map in california, there are counties where republicans have strength in a place like cast, even though democrats may win the state. that's where the republicans are playing. that's why they act and behave the way they behave and act is because where they are closest to the ground, they see more people nodding their head yes and shaking their head no that's my core point. so as steve again appropriately pointed out, you go back 20 years, you see where the democrats were competitive in those same areas controlled by republicans, those races in '92 and '92 and '96 and even 98 were a much more favorable playground for democrats politically. that has shifted and fought paying attention to that is why you see a lot of the problems that we have right now. and i have to endorse real quick red and blue. i teach this book, steve's book in my class at -- university, because he nails it sought exactly so really a freight shout out to steve for what he does in helping is understand the numbers. >> a shout out to the book. that's interesting to know you are teaching it. we could leave it there, kornacki broke it down, michael walked us through. but we have a chair of a different party, howard dean used to run the democratic party and has a little different view on this i want, steve, if possible, if you can bring us back to the problem rorschach, the people map. which is one way for us to see especially in 2020 things turned more blue. take it away for your perspective, former democratic party care dean. >> well, the central problem. there are several central problems. the biggest problem of all is that the counties, and the states that michael talked about and steve talked about are older, getting older and whiter and they're terrified of the future. the kids are leaving. they're teaching stuff in the schools that's not useful. the older people don't know how to use the internet. they're losing their jobs. if they can't use the internet, they can't get another job. it's pure fear and anger motivating trump's voters. it's why he's so successful. it belongs to blue people, young people overwhelming vote, not because they love the democrats, because this furious vision of the republicans is totally unacceptable to people who are young. it also highlights the structural defects that we've got that are now an emergency after 250 years. the electoral college. it doesn't make any sense at all. the corrupt election laws that are being passed. we had experience through jim crowe. we had a new jim crowe in georgia. they still voted for two democratic senators for the first time since segregation was broken. the country is at an inflexionion point. the furry and anger is explainable by how terrified the right wing and the conservators are of the future. >> so, steve, walk us through then your response to that any of the maps you want us to re-visit. i'm curious, steve, how you view this tonight at a time when the senate is not responding to the map that's on our screen, which is the people massachusetts steve is responding to a different set of incentives. >> we don't have radar. you can go back to the first screen here. the senate is sort of the electoral college, whole states are represented. every state gets two, so it's not like when you start showing the county map here, this is, you draw congressional districts of 435. you can combine a bunch of different counties, obviously, when you start talking about the u.s. senate, versus the house, a state like west virginia proportionately will have more of a voice i think than it would in the house. it just, again, every state getting two senate seats there. i think the big point when i look at this, this is this screen here we showed you, the story of this century, really, after '96 starting with clinton with that bush-gore election in 2000. look what happened between 1996 when bill clinton got reelected and 2000 when al gore with that election that went to the supreme court, lost to george w. bush. look at all the territory of democrats. this is a very close election here. in fact, al gore got 600,000 more in the popular vote. look how much territory was shed there in that basic divide, that sort of rural/you are benefit, rural/metropolitan growing in the last years. it was set if 2000, two groups of white voters going two directions, accelerating i think in 2000 and really everything has been sort of entrenching more and more in the last 20 years to where we are now. >> yeah, so let me take that to michael steele with tonight's clash. we have here where the public is. it's not an endorsement of everything that the democratic agenda wants. but on the infrastructure, you look at 68%, which is huge. the safety net, depending on how it's described, another strong majority 62. climate change 66, tax and corporations are also high. then overlapping with steve's point, look at the senator who's are making these decisions here. it's not you know 5 or 3%. they are less, manchin less than 1% of the u.s. is what he represents. sinema just about 2%. yet they hold all the power right now. >> yeah. that's because of the balance in the senate at the moment. the way the country has decided to set this all in motion. remember, we're here because this is how voters voted in these respective jurisdictions. imagine what it would have been like if georgia had flipped the other way? that's how thin the margins are right now. and here's the crux of it. i know this is something that howard really appreciates, is, is where you have right now is the republican party is playing politics. they're looking at the same thing that all of us are looking at here and they're saying, hmm, what are the politics saying to us? well, the politics are saying both of these senators, sinema and manchin are in conservative to slightly moderate conservative states. all right. we can use that. and that's the politics here. the question for democrats is, well, how do you leverage against that. >> you saw nancy pelosi you know sort of go out there and push on the first infrastructure bill and got vote no one thought that she could get. now the test becomes on this remaining piece, what she is able to do. i get she understands the politics. i'm not sure the democrats understand the politics in the senate. because trust me, if mitch mcconnell were in chuck schumer's place, we'd be having a whole different conversation act filibuster what bills get passed and through when and how. so that's the difference here when you are looking at such narrow numbers, it forces the politics. only one side in my view right now is playing the politics. >> it's very interesting going this deep, michael, you can suggest, we do these reports any time on air or off. it looks like we will program the show around michael and howard's suggestions. steve, i'm not going to play a clip. but in sum haitian, do you have any response to leslie jones from ""saturday night live"," who has been such a fan of yours with her commentary? >> just that i'm extremely flattered. >> all right. i hope she's listening and hears about it. again on the night when things hang in the balance, corenak /* /* kornacki gave us insight. maga insiders got hit with subpoenas. the indictment reports of a ledger with donald trump's name on it. we will see right after this break. it. wweill see right after this break. 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>> one of the things we know from a report is amy claimer also interestinged, a part of the women for the real half black donald trump was also someone who indicated directly we think there is some reporting that suggests about concerns about the rally and so one of the things someone in the house understand is how much notice did rally organizers have that this could be violent? what were their concerns? there is already facts in the record apparently from the reporting that the white house had been put on notice and katrina pierson, herself, had been put on notice. it's one of the reasons why the alex jones info war conspiracy theorists a contingent was given speaking roles the day before on january 5th. again, how much did they know? how much did they realize they should have taken more action to keirb the possibility that there was going to be violence at the capital, how much did donald trump directly know? we know one of the issues is how his words directly incited those who stormed the capitol who said we weren't invited here. we came here to fight trump. >> as you remy opinion us, the coordination is important to look into. if under full evidence it proves to be minor or weak, then the committee has an obligation to say, well, they didn't necessarily find that. if it proves to be incriminating. that's important for the government to know and props act on. so that brings me to the question of what any of us does is lock down any chain of communication. so right now they're hitting these folks. as for what was coming out of the white house the biden signaled it would turn over january 6th stuff. it wobbled, case by case, leaving room to maneuver. i want to say it's simple here, either they turn it over or they don't remember if they do turn it over, donald trump under the rules, meaning they have a process for turning it over, there is 30 days with the archives they can object or sue. putting it up on the screen, suing would be a situation where he could sue the administration congress or both claiming that he still has some kind of leftover privilege. your view on that standoff. >> with him, as we know donald trump's favorite privilege is to claim executive privilege really says i can block any information i want and share it with the american public. remember the congress has very broad hours to get access to information to do its constitutional duty and this commission is charged with finding the causes, learning the lessons and making recommendations around preventing this in the future and that does mean that i think there is an uphill battle to block the release of any of this information to congress to do its constitutional duty and its article has constitutional powers of subpoena information. i think biden administration has just been cautious. >> understood it's always good to have you back on the program. we appreciate you walking us through each of those items. when we come back, we turn to another super important story. obviously, washington is watching the vote tonight. that's not all congress is doing. republicans have found enrons an the court to overturn roe versus wade and evade a supreme court review. so we have an update on the deeply personal stories that are being told about defending choice in america. we also of course keep an eye on the action on the hill for you throughout "the beat" tonight. stay with us. again with the bill... what? it looks like a face. ...hearing about it 24/7 is painful enough... i don't want to catch it. well, you can't catch shingles, but the virus that causes it may already be inside you. does that mean bill might have company? - stop. you know shingles can be prevented. shingles can be whaaaaat? yeah prevented. you can get vaccinated. oh, so... i guess it's just you, me and bill then. i'm making my appointment. bill's all yours... 50 years or older? get vaccinated for shingles today. one, two! one, two, three! only pay for what you need! with customized car insurance from liberty mutual! nothing rhymes with liberty mutual. only pay for what you need. ♪ liberty. liberty. liberty. liberty. ♪ clerk: hello, how can i? sore throat pain? ♪honey lemon♪ try vicks vapocool drops. in honey lemon chill. for fast-acting sore throat relief. wooo vaporize sore throat pain with vicks vapocool drops. i was drowning in student loan debt. i was in the process of deferring them, paying them... then i discovered sofi. completely changed my life. lower interest rate. my principal is going down. sofi is a place where you can start to tackle those money goals today. compared to where i was three years ago, i'm kinda killing it. ♪♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, i'm kinda killing it. jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. congress is very busy, but it can do more than one thing. it was quite a searing in congress today featuring lawmakers testifying as witnesses, which is something they can do procedurally to discuss choice in america. the hearing featuring people sharing deeply personal story. here is congressman cori bush. >> to all the black women and girls who have had abortions and will have abortions, we have nothing to be ashamed of. in the summer of 1994, i was raped, i became pregnant, and i chose to have an abortion. choosing to an abortion was the hardest decision i had ever made, but at 18 years old, i knew it was the right decision for me. >> she is speaking about her own personal legal choice and also making the choice to share the difficult story to put something of a face on these decisions. congresswoman lee discussed her experience before roe. >> i'm compelled to speak out because of the real risks of the clock being turned back to those days before roe v. wade, to the days when i was a teenager and had a back alley abortion in mexico. i was one of the lucky one, madam chair. a lot of girls and women in my generation didn't make it. they died from unsafe abortions. >> congresswoman jayapal has been one of the progressive leaders clashing with pelosi about tonight's spending vote. but while playing that role this week, she also took time to speak out and explain what she calls her tough choice after a dangerous first pregnancy. >> i consulted with my doctors who told me that any future pregnancy would likely also be high risk to me and the child, similar to what i had gone through. i very much wanted to have more children, but i simply could not imagine going through that again. >> an important hearing today, and we wanted you to hear directly from these individuals and their stories. the supreme court may ultimately weigh in. there is the texas issue which they ducked, and there is the mississippi case which could come in weeks. we'll be right back. come in weeks. we'll be right back. do you struggle with occasional nerve aches in your hands or feet? try nervivenerve relief from the world's #1 selling nerve care company. nervive contains alpha lipoic acid to relieve occasional nerve aches, weakness and discomfort. try nervivenerve relief. we have to be able to repair the enamel on a daily basis. with pronamel repair toothpaste, we can help actively repair enamel in its weakened state. it's innovative. my go to toothpaste is going to be pronamel repair. what happens when we welcome change? we can make emergency medicine possible at 40,000 feet. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster. vmware. welcome change. the big day on capitol hill turning to a big night on capitol hill. democratic leaders as of this hour promise plowing forward on the infrastructure bill. it could come after 9:00 p.m. eastern. there will be full coverage on msnbc, including right now on "the reidout" with joy reid. hey, joy. >> hey, ari. thank you very much. the plot thickens. have great evening. we begin "the reidout" tonight, waiting as you just heard to see if speaker pelosi will bring the bipartisan infrastructure bill to the house floor for a vote tonight, which per her history, pelosi would like i will only do if it will pass. right now members are bracing for a late night with no votes scheduled before 9:00 p.m. but top aides to the president, speaker pelosi, and majority leader chuck schumer have been huddling to figure out a path forward. now, if you have been paying attention to the

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Transcripts For MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber 20240709 : Comparemela.com

Transcripts For MSNBC The Beat With Ari Melber 20240709

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infrastructure. aggressives are vowing to stand firm on their real threat to their own leader. they say as of this evening they will vote down and tank watered-down deal with the infrastructure with a safety net and that spending, which, of course, faces this uphill battle in the senate, largely thanks to joe manchin, who has been driving this standoff, while keeping his cars close to the vest. you can see him surrounded by reporters, as he has been for much of the week. in fact, for months, manchin pushed back without publicly saying anything about the spending number in this second package that he would support. and no bill will pass the democratic senate without him. so all of this was the state of play. then everything changed today. with this new by washington standards a new leak which shows all the way back in july manchin set out then more specific numbers in a written summary, a topline as they call it for democrat chuck schumer and agreed up to 1.5 trillion in that second spending package, which is less than half of the 3.5 trillion that most of the democratic party and liberals are pushing for as of tonight so what we have here is a development. as a narrative matter and a story, that's interesting. as a human matter, it shows you just how far apart the democrats are for spending that could affect your life and your family's life. this changes the public's understanding of the whole clash that washington has been going through. manchin all but confirmed this leak document came from his office today as he spoke out about the spending he backs what his limits are and opposing what he views as a too large liberal proposal. i got to 1.5 was always done from my heart, i've never been a liberal in anyway shape or form. i have voted pretty consistently all my life. all we need to do, is we have to collect more elect more liberals. >> elect more liberals. he was not a liberal. he is putting out the number that is for him he says is the non-liberal level of spending he will support. he is an elected senator. he is certainly entitled to his policy stance. he said there about being consistent. he has consistently been like this on many of these policy. but this is "the beat." we do facts around here. we have to point out the other objective fact. which is that senator manchin spent the last two months in this high stakes level and many families have their education and leave in the balance, senator manchin had been acting like he had not wormgd on the numbers. >> reporter: president biden said to give him a number. have you given him a number yet on what you would like that price tax to be? >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers, i really haven't. >> 2.5 is pretty high for you? >> it's pretty high. >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers. no i haven't worked on the numbers. this is right in that line between politicians speak and lawyer speak. apologies to all lawyers it's a little folk sip. but you have done that sorry. not trying to be insulting. we are very respectful here. but you have done that. this is important as we go forward, particularly because the good or bad faith of politicians spending your tax money is also a big part of tonight's vote and the clash ahead. senator manchin did not say he was keeping his numbers private, which is true and which people do in negotiations, to be fair. he claimed he had not worked on the numbers, which his own numbers today shows is false. let's run back that part. >> no, i haven't worked on the numbers, i really haven't. >> but you have. by your own office's admission two months ago. so this matters, it's all on the line, today a top democratic staffer who worked for the leader harry reid says the memo's developments feeds the idea that joe manchin's pass all along is to pass infrastructure first and then bail on the biden safety net. meanwhile, speaker pelosi vowing her vote tonight. >> i think we're in a good place right now. we are making progress. i'm only envisioning taking it up and winning it. you cannot tire. you can not concede. it's this is the fun part. >> the fun part. we should also note amidst all this news, congress did avert that potential government shutdown and moments ago, democratic leaders are telling law makers any infrastructure vote tonight could come later after 9:00 p.m. eastern. so you take it altogether. what do we have here? we learn some. if you care about the results, which is why a lot of people watch the news, or you are just interested in learning about the people, we learned that for months, joe manchin named a number and went around in public. that means tells his own constituents and the press and everyone else that not only did he not have a number. he hadn't worked on the numbers. this goes to the heart at what's ahead. will the numbers move? which numbers are real? and who is to be believed if democrats have to put their faith aside and strike a deal to pass something, hoping they will get more good faith negotiation going forward. we begin one-on-one with a very special guest. it's the perfect guest, an insider, you want to hear on a night like this, to understand what's happening. you know he was president obama's campaign manager in 2008 and senior adviser to president obama. you have been in these rooms. it's complicated, difficult. sometimes it looks different outside the room, inside the room. walk us through what is happening. what insights you can share what is going to happen in the house vote and the manchin standoff. >> well, first of all, that's why nancy pelosi is historically good at her job, she actually finds this fun. it brings back memories when i was in the white house. listen, nancy pelosi is skilled. i think she's got a plan to land the planes here. you know this manchin memo, i guess you can call it the manchin-schumer memo. it's been clear the final reconciliation wasn't going to be 3.5. the question is how north can it get to keep manchin and sinema in line. at this point i do not buy, maybe i'll prove to be naive that this is suggested manchin's plan, he plans to bail on the non-infrastructure piece of the package. i think all these things travel together. but this is going to be a big pill for some progressives to swallow. if we end up at 1, 5, i'll make a general point, to the, tent that anybody out there in the opportunityr country who is going to decide the 2022 election is paying attention, allthey know is there is no agreement or what's in these bills and eventually, that's a solvable problem. if are you able to pass these things, that will be a big part for the next 14 months, essentially. you got to get out. right now, it's big numbers. it doesn't mean anything to anybody. democrats are arguing. i'm not overly alarmed about that. the democrats have to go community by community and media market by media market and telling the story and even more popular than what the spending is going to be used for is the tax changes and i think democrats can really lean into that and say every republican opposed raising taxes on the wealthy and capital gains. >> yeah. some in that manchin proposal as well as what is on the table in congress is basically restoring the tax rates that existed before the donald trump presidency cut them. as you say widespread support for those changes, which goes to how do you fund it. david stays with us as our kickoff expert. we want to bring on the ground libby caseer, our reporter tracking all of this. libby, is this washington as usual and you just throw out what the politicians say and that's why some tune it out completely? or does it matter joe manchin claimed to not have a number when he had one? >> well, i want to focus on one part of senator manchin's statement. he does this thing, the i'm not a liberal. this is red state is what voters want to hear. what progressives, david said, what's in it? universal pre-k, free community college, fighting the climate crisis. things that do poll well. that's president biden's agenda. progressives will say, look, this is the president's agenda, not the liberal wing of the party, even if senator manchin tries to pivot away. the democrats are saying we are in line with the president of the united states who you know you can say a lot of things about president biden, people don't think of him as the farthest left progressive driving the train. as far as senator man. manchin, there is a lot behind the cool ras and in front of the cameras. you know more about what goes on that's away from the cameras and away from reporters. but the big question on everybody's minds, can they pass anything? any democrat say fill area is not an option. whether they're talking about the hard infrastructure bill, the physical infracture, whether they're talking about the build back better plan. they know they have no way of winning mid-terms if they cannot get success in the biden agenda. let's take it out of the political range. they got to go back to voters and say we were able accomplish what you put us in office to do. will it happen tonight, ari? we know nothing is planned until after 9:00 p.m. tonight when that infrastructure vote could still come up. speaker pelosi does not like to bring up bills unless she knows she has bills to pass them. really, it's still an open question as to whether they will put this out there. she'll know. she'll have a count before she brings it up. progressives are not holding punches how she let it vote. she put it out there to let it fail. how would that be spun in the media is the word in question. >> david knows that, he was mentioning the speaker's known proficiency before and this is classic strategy, david. i mean sun su said the true warrior only fights battles they've already won and when you run the floor, whether it's lbj or speaker pelosi, you're in charge. so you have to have won the battle, know the number and execute on it, which would suggest she knows something that other people don't. that she has enough make-up votes from the republican side of the infrastructure to cover the balance if liberals defect or not as many liberals will defect as some think. lick rals vowed up into the night. i emphasized this on our program, this is a rarity. you don't usually see the house progressive caucus make this kind of maneuver against speaker pelosi. she is handling as you said in her fun way. david if manchin is 1.5 and only to budge a bit beyond that, how do you interpret schumer and others, they knew all along, a lot of people are what was the thinking? >> ari, i am really looking forward to reading coverage in the washington post and elsewhere that will get into the tiktok at the last 60 days. listen, i think at this point whether you are manchin, sinema or the progressives in the house, the only thing worse not getting your way is getting nothing done. it's still inconceivable to me that the democratic party is not going to find a way to enact the bulk of joe biden's agenda. i'll come to the politics of that. there is no guarantee the democrats will hold the trinexta. trifecta. free child care, tax changes, i think voters who worked so hard to organize and grow in 2020 to say, what did we get for that? so you got to report back to those voters that it mattered. listen, presidents, bill clrnths i was working in the house of representatives in '93 clinton's affordable care act had nine political -- republican presidents have as well. so it looks impossible to see how these pieces will come together until the very last minute. i think nancy pelosi has a plan here. i think what i'm looking forward is we haven't yet seen the progressives, actually i haven't seen it to the 1.5 number specifically. i think a big question is what is that ceiling with joe manchin and maybe sinema. if it's a hard 1.5, this will test nancy pelosi's skill. if you have a little room to move there, you can see how this comes together. the democrats will have to put away the swords. sand say, this is a historic achievement. a., make sure it gets executed well and make sure it gets out the door and do that local story-telling. which for the last few months, they haven't been able to do, because it's all been this haggling and big numbers which mean nothing to the average marine. >> it's interesting hearing david talk it through. you have been here, i'm running over because we have a lot of breaking news, libby, in 30 second, what should we watch for tonight? >> watch from the infrastructure passes or fails, it's passed in the senate, the house is where the action has to happen. remember unlike the debt ceiling or unlike the government shutdown that was looming and will be averted. this is a deadline based on politics, not a clicking clock. this is not about paying your credit card bill on time, like raising the debt ceiling. if they fail tonight, we come at this again tomorrow. it lives to be another day. this is the deadline set by politics. >> all such interesting points. thank you. let me tell viewers what's coming up. because progressives say they have a plan to brake some of the holdouts in the senate. later tonight, we turn to other important issues, eyeing what these subpoenas tell us about the january 6th probe. that's not all. it is a big night in washington. so we called in a big gun. steve kornacki is here. he'll be at the big board. i'll explain why with howard dean and michael steele. a special edition of "the beat." stay with us. teele. a special edition of "the beat." stay with us i don't know anybody who's had it. your uncle had shingles. you mean that nasty red rash? and donna next door had it for weeks. yeah, but there's nothing you can do about it. camera man: actually, shingles can be prevented. shingles can be whaaaat? camera man: prevented. you can get vaccinated. baby, call the doctor. camera man: hey! you can also get it from your pharmacist! 50 years or older? get vaccinated for shingles now. with the ww 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forward or not? there is hyperbole in the news. we have a leader, andrew levin is the co-director of the group indivisible and pushed the party to reform itself. if you go back farther, he is experienced, vermont government, presidential candidate howard dean pushed the party and went on to run it as the mc chair. so we think this is an interesting group. as we laid it out, your thoughts about this issue tonight in congress. >> i think there are three possible outcomes tonight, either there is no vote, because it gets pulled. there is a vote and it fails because the progressive caucus is holding firm and everything we know about where the progressive caucus is, is holding firm, or there is a vote and it succeeds because republicans go for it. i think it's between the first two. the reason why the progressive caucus is holding firm is this was the deal that was agreed to over a month ago, these two bills, the bipartisan infrastructure bill and build back better agenda were moving toke. they're not saying they want one or the other. they're say let's deep to the final end of this negotiation with both bills passed and sent to president biden and signed into law. i think that's what we will ultimately see. >> you are suggesting that was publicly phone that they were linked? >> oh, it was absolutely publicly phone. you know, i would go back and look at the statements by senator joe manchin who endorsed the two-track progress over a month ago. it's fought something progressives are making up or any faction is making up. this was an agreement made by the democratic president joe biden, chuck schumer, the lead democrat in the senate and nancy pelosi in the house. everybody agreed, okay, we're going to do two thing, pass the bipartisan bill and a reconciliation bill. >> you made detect the fe facetious inside of my question i'm a country lawyer, you know who never heard about it? joe manchin, he is roughly aware of big things in congress. but we did put together a little history lesson. take a look. >> make sure you understand that when people say, well, i'm not going to vote for this unless i see that. there ain't going to be no -- bipartisan bill unless we are going to have the reconciliation bill. >> how much you are not going to do if they felt there was a deal made. >> i never heard of the bill. >> you never a part of the deal? >> i never heard about that. why do you think we worked so hard to separate it? >> howard? >> this is a problem of two senators from states playing some sort of game. can i predict what manchin is doing. because i served with him. i know manchin, sinema is the problem. they're both problems. i think manchin will be there at a price eventually. west virginia makes too much money out of this. he's going to have to no home and explain to all the west virginiaians why there is no opioid money, why there is no bridges, why there is no infrastructure if he doesn't vote for this. he's going to find a way. the problem is that's not good enough because you got to get sinema. she is the sphinx of all this. nobody is figuring out what is making her tick. i have already predicted he is not coming back. that's not until 2024. you know, she really holds the key. manchin gets the inink. that's what this is about. i don't understand what sinema is doing and why she's in the senate. >> does he get ink, governor, or the pixels? >> who, manchin? he likes the pixels and the ink. i guess the pixels. who knows what is more important these days. they all read the people as well as look at the internet. >> yeah, i think all of it. the pixels, the ink. i am jumping because i have kornacki on standby, in a minute, we'llville you back, governor dean stays. in 60 seconds, we turn to the question, how do two senators have the power? steve kornacki here in 60 seconds. power steve kornacki here in 60 seconds. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ what happens when we welcome change? we can transform our workforce overnight out of convenience, or necessity. we can explore uncharted waters, and not only make new discoveries, but get there faster, with better outcomes. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change-- meeting them where they are, and getting them where they want to be. faster. vmware. welcome change. welcome back to this special edition of "the beat." speaker pelosi says she will bring the infrastructure bill to a vote tonight. sometime after 9:00 p.m. eastern. major implications for americans. the entire fight shows as well as many guests tonight and other nights have mentioned how powerful one senator can be in this divided congress. in fact, our michael steele was on the show and said something that sparked the very conversation we're about to have with kornacki right now. >> google, a political map of the country not at the state level but at the county level. when you see that map and how red that map is. the country is a lot redder than 2020 pay lead you to believe. >> we did more than google, called upon by mr. steele to act. we brought in the map guru of america. you know what it is. you know who i'm talking act. it's steve kornacki on a non-election night. he is our national correspondent for msnbc, he's the author of the red and the blue. since michael suggested this, it was fair to bring him back along with howard dean who are mere for this special conversation, a deep dive on the national political situation. the mechanics of congress and just what is happening there tonight with why. so we're going to begin with steve kornacki's report. steve, take it away. >> sure, thanks, ari. what we're talking about here is the partisan distribution of voters. a couple different ways i go es to look at this. first the map that everybody knows. this is the 2020 election. biden wins. here's the electoral vote. here are the red states, the blue states. you see basically we know democrats concentrated a lot on the west coast, the northeast, somewhat in the west, biden flipped a couple states. in that clip you have michael steele talking about the county states. the 50 states in the country. there is more than 3,100 counties in the united states. so what this map is going to change here in a second, you will see all of the counties in the country. this is the red/blue map four the counties. obviously you see a lot more red here than blue. in the 2020 election, donald trump won more than 2500 counties. again, there is just over 3100 of them. more than 2500 went for donald trump. now, obviously, not every county is the exact same size. here's like a very dramatic example i can give you. if you were to really zoom in here in southern california, i will circle it. i circled los angeles county in southern california. this is a big blue county. the city of los angeles, about 10 million people. there is about 10 million res dints in los angeles county. joe biden won los angeles county overwhelmingly. in terms of population, though, los angeles county would be the same size as utah, idaho, montana, wyoming, north dakota, south dakota, nebraska, roughly. if you were to combine all of those rid states, the population would be about the same as los angeles county yet obviously the number of counties, the land distribution. there is a lot more land mass, a lot more red than blue on here land versus population. that gets to the story this divide see on the county map. here's the actual number. trump won 2,574 counties, biden 539. this has become this century at least the story of our politics. in clinton in the noon 90s won a ton of counties the interior of the country. this has become the story. this by the way, what you are looking at here is you sized every state and county relative to its population. this would be the map. this is a blob here. it looks like a rorschach test. if you were to size the high population areas to the same scale as in low population areas much lower, this would become what the red/blue map. what it gets here is the distribution of the population, democrats in cities increasingly in suburbs. republicans used to be strong in the suburbs, democrats win it by double digits. it's the rural areas in the country. this is the 2020 election, yurl areas overwhelmingly republican. we talked to the racial component of this african-americans, hispanics, core constituency. it's among white voters, this is this big divide that's emortgaged in the last 20 years, white choaters with college degrees tend to be much more likely to be in metro areas, in cities, in suburbs. this has become a core democratic constituency. democrats doing better and better with this group every election. republicans, vote white voters, this has become more and more of a republican constituency. so it really translates into that map. it's metro areas, it's cities. that's where the democratic strength is. it's the rural aevgen-american south. otherwise, when you get outside of the rural african-american south, it's basically all red. that's what the geographical map looks like. >> it's fascinating. we listed elegs nights. you are saying that breakdown is a crash course in what's happening of course in the congress right now, in particular, some people might say, oh, well, counties are by land. i just show us. i want to get michael if, democrats used to do better as you showed in '96 across that land. that shift has become more polarized. michael, take it away. >> you know, look, steve incapsulated what i said at the time i had to say it in that clip. look, the reality of it is, and my basic point is, everyone likes to look at the top line. they like to look more broadly at the states, steve walks us 32 you that every election cycle. what i appreciate about what he did just now was to take it a little bit further down, a little bit more gran you laer to see why the republicans begin to behave the way they behave. they have strength in places that you otherwise wouldn't think about. even when you pull out that map in california, there are counties where republicans have strength in a place like cast, even though democrats may win the state. that's where the republicans are playing. that's why they act and behave the way they behave and act is because where they are closest to the ground, they see more people nodding their head yes and shaking their head no that's my core point. so as steve again appropriately pointed out, you go back 20 years, you see where the democrats were competitive in those same areas controlled by republicans, those races in '92 and '92 and '96 and even 98 were a much more favorable playground for democrats politically. that has shifted and fought paying attention to that is why you see a lot of the problems that we have right now. and i have to endorse real quick red and blue. i teach this book, steve's book in my class at -- university, because he nails it sought exactly so really a freight shout out to steve for what he does in helping is understand the numbers. >> a shout out to the book. that's interesting to know you are teaching it. we could leave it there, kornacki broke it down, michael walked us through. but we have a chair of a different party, howard dean used to run the democratic party and has a little different view on this i want, steve, if possible, if you can bring us back to the problem rorschach, the people map. which is one way for us to see especially in 2020 things turned more blue. take it away for your perspective, former democratic party care dean. >> well, the central problem. there are several central problems. the biggest problem of all is that the counties, and the states that michael talked about and steve talked about are older, getting older and whiter and they're terrified of the future. the kids are leaving. they're teaching stuff in the schools that's not useful. the older people don't know how to use the internet. they're losing their jobs. if they can't use the internet, they can't get another job. it's pure fear and anger motivating trump's voters. it's why he's so successful. it belongs to blue people, young people overwhelming vote, not because they love the democrats, because this furious vision of the republicans is totally unacceptable to people who are young. it also highlights the structural defects that we've got that are now an emergency after 250 years. the electoral college. it doesn't make any sense at all. the corrupt election laws that are being passed. we had experience through jim crowe. we had a new jim crowe in georgia. they still voted for two democratic senators for the first time since segregation was broken. the country is at an inflexionion point. the furry and anger is explainable by how terrified the right wing and the conservators are of the future. >> so, steve, walk us through then your response to that any of the maps you want us to re-visit. i'm curious, steve, how you view this tonight at a time when the senate is not responding to the map that's on our screen, which is the people massachusetts steve is responding to a different set of incentives. >> we don't have radar. you can go back to the first screen here. the senate is sort of the electoral college, whole states are represented. every state gets two, so it's not like when you start showing the county map here, this is, you draw congressional districts of 435. you can combine a bunch of different counties, obviously, when you start talking about the u.s. senate, versus the house, a state like west virginia proportionately will have more of a voice i think than it would in the house. it just, again, every state getting two senate seats there. i think the big point when i look at this, this is this screen here we showed you, the story of this century, really, after '96 starting with clinton with that bush-gore election in 2000. look what happened between 1996 when bill clinton got reelected and 2000 when al gore with that election that went to the supreme court, lost to george w. bush. look at all the territory of democrats. this is a very close election here. in fact, al gore got 600,000 more in the popular vote. look how much territory was shed there in that basic divide, that sort of rural/you are benefit, rural/metropolitan growing in the last years. it was set if 2000, two groups of white voters going two directions, accelerating i think in 2000 and really everything has been sort of entrenching more and more in the last 20 years to where we are now. >> yeah, so let me take that to michael steele with tonight's clash. we have here where the public is. it's not an endorsement of everything that the democratic agenda wants. but on the infrastructure, you look at 68%, which is huge. the safety net, depending on how it's described, another strong majority 62. climate change 66, tax and corporations are also high. then overlapping with steve's point, look at the senator who's are making these decisions here. it's not you know 5 or 3%. they are less, manchin less than 1% of the u.s. is what he represents. sinema just about 2%. yet they hold all the power right now. >> yeah. that's because of the balance in the senate at the moment. the way the country has decided to set this all in motion. remember, we're here because this is how voters voted in these respective jurisdictions. imagine what it would have been like if georgia had flipped the other way? that's how thin the margins are right now. and here's the crux of it. i know this is something that howard really appreciates, is, is where you have right now is the republican party is playing politics. they're looking at the same thing that all of us are looking at here and they're saying, hmm, what are the politics saying to us? well, the politics are saying both of these senators, sinema and manchin are in conservative to slightly moderate conservative states. all right. we can use that. and that's the politics here. the question for democrats is, well, how do you leverage against that. >> you saw nancy pelosi you know sort of go out there and push on the first infrastructure bill and got vote no one thought that she could get. now the test becomes on this remaining piece, what she is able to do. i get she understands the politics. i'm not sure the democrats understand the politics in the senate. because trust me, if mitch mcconnell were in chuck schumer's place, we'd be having a whole different conversation act filibuster what bills get passed and through when and how. so that's the difference here when you are looking at such narrow numbers, it forces the politics. only one side in my view right now is playing the politics. >> it's very interesting going this deep, michael, you can suggest, we do these reports any time on air or off. it looks like we will program the show around michael and howard's suggestions. steve, i'm not going to play a clip. but in sum haitian, do you have any response to leslie jones from ""saturday night live"," who has been such a fan of yours with her commentary? >> just that i'm extremely flattered. >> all right. i hope she's listening and hears about it. again on the night when things hang in the balance, corenak /* /* kornacki gave us insight. maga insiders got hit with subpoenas. the indictment reports of a ledger with donald trump's name on it. we will see right after this break. it. wweill see right after this break. 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>> one of the things we know from a report is amy claimer also interestinged, a part of the women for the real half black donald trump was also someone who indicated directly we think there is some reporting that suggests about concerns about the rally and so one of the things someone in the house understand is how much notice did rally organizers have that this could be violent? what were their concerns? there is already facts in the record apparently from the reporting that the white house had been put on notice and katrina pierson, herself, had been put on notice. it's one of the reasons why the alex jones info war conspiracy theorists a contingent was given speaking roles the day before on january 5th. again, how much did they know? how much did they realize they should have taken more action to keirb the possibility that there was going to be violence at the capital, how much did donald trump directly know? we know one of the issues is how his words directly incited those who stormed the capitol who said we weren't invited here. we came here to fight trump. >> as you remy opinion us, the coordination is important to look into. if under full evidence it proves to be minor or weak, then the committee has an obligation to say, well, they didn't necessarily find that. if it proves to be incriminating. that's important for the government to know and props act on. so that brings me to the question of what any of us does is lock down any chain of communication. so right now they're hitting these folks. as for what was coming out of the white house the biden signaled it would turn over january 6th stuff. it wobbled, case by case, leaving room to maneuver. i want to say it's simple here, either they turn it over or they don't remember if they do turn it over, donald trump under the rules, meaning they have a process for turning it over, there is 30 days with the archives they can object or sue. putting it up on the screen, suing would be a situation where he could sue the administration congress or both claiming that he still has some kind of leftover privilege. your view on that standoff. >> with him, as we know donald trump's favorite privilege is to claim executive privilege really says i can block any information i want and share it with the american public. remember the congress has very broad hours to get access to information to do its constitutional duty and this commission is charged with finding the causes, learning the lessons and making recommendations around preventing this in the future and that does mean that i think there is an uphill battle to block the release of any of this information to congress to do its constitutional duty and its article has constitutional powers of subpoena information. i think biden administration has just been cautious. >> understood it's always good to have you back on the program. we appreciate you walking us through each of those items. when we come back, we turn to another super important story. obviously, washington is watching the vote tonight. that's not all congress is doing. republicans have found enrons an the court to overturn roe versus wade and evade a supreme court review. so we have an update on the deeply personal stories that are being told about defending choice in america. we also of course keep an eye on the action on the hill for you throughout "the beat" tonight. stay with us. again with the bill... what? 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but what have you been doing for the last two hours? ...delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today. congress is very busy, but it can do more than one thing. it was quite a searing in congress today featuring lawmakers testifying as witnesses, which is something they can do procedurally to discuss choice in america. the hearing featuring people sharing deeply personal story. here is congressman cori bush. >> to all the black women and girls who have had abortions and will have abortions, we have nothing to be ashamed of. in the summer of 1994, i was raped, i became pregnant, and i chose to have an abortion. choosing to an abortion was the hardest decision i had ever made, but at 18 years old, i knew it was the right decision for me. >> she is speaking about her own personal legal choice and also making the choice to share the difficult story to put something of a face on these decisions. congresswoman lee discussed her experience before roe. >> i'm compelled to speak out because of the real risks of the clock being turned back to those days before roe v. wade, to the days when i was a teenager and had a back alley abortion in mexico. i was one of the lucky one, madam chair. a lot of girls and women in my generation didn't make it. they died from unsafe abortions. >> congresswoman jayapal has been one of the progressive leaders clashing with pelosi about tonight's spending vote. but while playing that role this week, she also took time to speak out and explain what she calls her tough choice after a dangerous first pregnancy. >> i consulted with my doctors who told me that any future pregnancy would likely also be high risk to me and the child, similar to what i had gone through. i very much wanted to have more children, but i simply could not imagine going through that again. >> an important hearing today, and we wanted you to hear directly from these individuals and their stories. the supreme court may ultimately weigh in. there is the texas issue which they ducked, and there is the mississippi case which could come in weeks. we'll be right back. come in weeks. we'll be right back. do you struggle with occasional nerve aches in your hands or feet? try nervivenerve relief from the world's #1 selling nerve care company. nervive contains alpha lipoic acid to relieve occasional nerve aches, weakness and discomfort. try nervivenerve relief. we have to be able to repair the enamel on a daily basis. with pronamel repair toothpaste, we can help actively repair enamel in its weakened state. it's innovative. my go to toothpaste is going to be pronamel repair. what happens when we welcome change? we can make emergency medicine possible at 40,000 feet. instead of burning our past for power, we can harness the energy of the tiny electron. we can create new ways to connect. rethinking how we communicate to be more inclusive than ever. with app, cloud and anywhere workspace solutions, vmware helps companies navigate change. faster. vmware. welcome change. the big day on capitol hill turning to a big night on capitol hill. democratic leaders as of this hour promise plowing forward on the infrastructure bill. it could come after 9:00 p.m. eastern. there will be full coverage on msnbc, including right now on "the reidout" with joy reid. hey, joy. >> hey, ari. thank you very much. the plot thickens. have great evening. we begin "the reidout" tonight, waiting as you just heard to see if speaker pelosi will bring the bipartisan infrastructure bill to the house floor for a vote tonight, which per her history, pelosi would like i will only do if it will pass. right now members are bracing for a late night with no votes scheduled before 9:00 p.m. but top aides to the president, speaker pelosi, and majority leader chuck schumer have been huddling to figure out a path forward. now, if you have been paying attention to the

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