Outnumber republicans roughly 21. Leading challenger right Wing Talk Show Host Larry Elder has already started Laying Groundwork to blame a loss if it happens on socalled election fraud. To get us situated before the starting line, the big board, Steve Kornacki is on duty. The nbc News Decision Disk has given us the following wording straight up, this race is technically too early to call, but no, the anti recall vote, is in the lead. Were going to get results from california. No means no recall. Yes means yes recall Gavin Newsom. All 58 counties will start lighting up within next couple of minutes. Take you through what to expect here. Way they do elections in california, a lot of mailin voting, usually vast majority are cast by mail, many sent in last few days, weeks. Counties have been receiving them, processing them, theyre going to report them out within minutes of polls closing. In 2020, the president ial election last fall, First Report from any county in california came 11 minutes after poll closing. By 25 minutes after, we had 40 of all the votes cast in the state already reported out. This thing looks blank and empty right now but were going to get a lot of votes quickly here. To take you through, three types of votes, the stuff youre going to see next few minutes, next hour or so, going to be Mail Votes as i just said. Votes that arrived in the mail a couple of weeks ago, days ago, up until yesterday, early today. Its most friendly to democrats, the history on this. And numbers you see right away are rosy as they get for Gavin Newsom against the recall. Thats probably going to be first hour or so here as counties start to come in. Then they add up and release the votes cast same day, people went out to the polls today, cast ballots oldfashioned way. Those will get added in, probably starting about an hour from now. Going to start to get the same Day Vote added in there. Thats going to be most republican friendly chunk out there. Big number for the democrats right away, then republicans we got first results. San Diego County, this is a biggie. Show you this, second biggest county in the state. Take you through what we got. San Diego County. Said its a ton of votes. What we just got here, over 800,000 votes in San Diego County. What youre looking at is mailin ballots primarily. What you just got here. Earliest arriving, most democratic friendly. How were interpreting these, this is great example from around the state. Got to select this. San Diego County in 2020, biden trump, biden won 60 to 37. So the Benchmark Tonight in any county is this, you take the Trump Number, trump got trounced in california, he got 34 of the vote statewide in california. So recall to succeed statewide, if trump got 34 statewide in any given county, recall probably needs to do about 16 points better than trump did. So San Diego as a rough, this is rough, a rough target to be on track to succeed, needs about 53 support in a place like San Diego County. Here we go, just got 2 3 of all the vote probably in San Diego, the Mailin Vote, recall running 39 . Target is 53, running at 39. I said this is the most democratic friendly its going to look, same day will be added in, more republican friendly. Late arriving mail ballots not as democratic still added. But in 2020 if past is prologue, this number will only move about four or five points like 2020. Trump number went up four or five points from First Report to final result on average. For recall to be succeeding means would have to be a flood of same Day Voters in San Diego County and other places like this, this number has to come up bigtime. Thats first one right now. Exit poll, the projection you just gave, looks rosy for Gavin Newsom. Earlier results in San Diego County look rosy for newsom. Recall has to be over 50 here. Mail votes, far from it. Would need big change in same Day Vote in San Diego County for recall to be on trachlkt isnt track. It isnt right now. This is only San Diego County, second biggest in the state, 10 of the vote. Got another one, this is napa, wine country. This is heavily democratic county, no surprise here no is leading in napa. But again, yes, 28 , trump got about 29 . Again the target in place like this roughly for recall to be succeeding statewide would be at least 40 probably. A significant jump from what trump got. Right now its level with what trump got and for napa, this is the Lions Share of the vote, Mailin Votes that just came in. Recall supporters want this number higher. Only thing could change it, same Day Vote. Votes cast today yet to be counted, there have to be a flood of pro recall votes we havent seen in past elections. Pattern weve seen in San Diego and napa, first two counties that come in, benchmark is not being met for recall supporters. Let me ask, traditionally were also very eager to see l. A. County and orange county, traditionally how fast do they report . Los angeles county, 10 Million people, it is 25 of all votes statewide, one of every four votes cast will come from l. A. County. Last november got 60 of the vote at 11 25 p. M. Getting San Diego and napa this quick, these two are already ahead of pace from Last November. L. A. County, we got the majority 25 minutes after polls closed Last November. Orange county just south, i believe 11 26 p. M. , alameda in Bay Area we got before 11 30. Usually get majority of the vote in biggest counties first half hour after polls close. Only thing on the ballot is recall so quicker probably to count and process. Just got orange. Orange county, third biggest. Again, look at this, 2 3 of the vote, 64 in, most democratic friendly compared to orange in 2020. Trump got 44 , recall needs to do 16 points better, running 60 in orange county. Its at 42 . Again, most democratic friendly, should come up. But in 2020, republican share of the vote only went up four or five points from the mailin to the final result. San diego, orange, napa, three counties with majority of the vote in. Three counties seeing most of the Mail Vote, all three, recall is far from the benchmark it would need to be hitting to succeed statewide. We just got all right, Steve Kornacki what . Ventura county, next to l. A. , another big one, 800,000 people. 2 3 came in in ventura county, trump was 38, recall is 36 . Target for recall to succeed, about 54 . If recall is running 54 in ventura, its looking good statewide. 36 in the Mail Vote right now. Again well see. Is there a flood of same day that could move it up dramatically . Would have to be extremely drat dramatic. Thats the fourth county short of the benchmark. Santa clara, overwhelmingly democratic county. Bay area here. But again, 22 in the mail, 70 of the vote in. Again theres no sign in any of the counties weve seen yet of this recall having any momentum it would need to even get near 50 . One thing ill say is, could be some regional disparities here. Here we go. Small one, republican. This is interesting test. This is a more rural, republican friendly county. Northern california here. Trump got 62 in glenn county, recall running at 68 . Probably to succeed statewide has to be in mid to high 70s. Its doing better there but not probably at level it needs to be running at. Going from County To county. Merced, the San Joaquin Valley, different demographically from other counties. Lets look. Trump got 43. 5 , recall is 48 . Probably target here is about 60, maybe 59 or 60 . Recall is better than trump did here. More support than other counties but its got to dramatically outperform to have a chance. Only outperforming him four points in Mailin Votes. Looking if anything else comes up here. Question coming in, were we going to see anything in early returns that suggested polling heading up before Election Day or Exit Polling tonight, suggested those numbers were off . Because they had newsom double digits ahead in this thing. Nothing in Nest Counties ive shown so far suggest that polling or Exit Polling was off in this. Steve, let me ask you about our process. You can stare at the board if you want, its not impolite. Were all looking at same counties you are. Our Decision Desk with whom you and i are not allowed Communication Or Conversation because they have to be able to crunch the numbers without any outside pressure or knowing what other News Organizations are doing, our Decision Desk factors in, into a giant algorithm, correct, the fact this is first Wave Mail ballots, even though some of these counties it is north of 70 of all the votes were going to get in. Do they have a threshold where folks staying up late here on the East Coast are going to learn perhaps what it looks like in california . I think the answer is yes. Just to underscore the point here, 8 13 West Coast time right now. Add it up, more than 2 Million votes, Well Over nearly 2. 5 million counted up already. 19 of all the votes have been counted. I think what the game right now in terms of trying to get to outcome in this, basically looks like this, use San Diego County as an example. Again this is probably about 68 of all the vote in San Diego County has already been counted. Early Mail Vote, bulk of the vote. Added in next hour, hour and a half, start to add up the people who went to the polls today. Count up ballots, report them out. If what we see there is anything like what we saw Last November in typical california election, it wont bring that number down dramatically. It would have to be. Just want to see one or two counties, see what same Day Vote looks like, see if Theres Something unprecedented in it. If there isnt, pattern is being set quickly here. We got l. A. County. Here we go. Okay. L. A. County, first thing you say, 60 of all votes in largest by far county in california just came in here. 10 Million people in l. A. County, quarter of all votes statewide come out of it, 60 of it, heavily democratic. Compare to Last November. Donald trump got 27 of the vote in l. A. County. Right now in the mail, most of the Mail Vote from l. A. County, recall is running about 24 support. A few points under what Donald Trump got Last November. Again the target for this thing to be succeeding statewide in county as big as Los Angeles, recall has to be near 40 support in place like Los Angeles county. Its 24 with 2 Million votes already counted. Give you the exact numbers for comparison. In 2020 when we got this batch of votes in Los Angeles county, mailin, Donald Trump was running 20 . Donald trump got 20 with this batch of votes in Los Angeles county, this is what he ended up with, 27 . Grew from the same Day Vote, from the late Mail Vote, other stuff not counted yet, seven points. If support for recall also grew seven points in remaining ballots would put it at 31 . Again, needs to be around 40 in l. A. County. Its on pace right now to be significantly under where it needs to be. When you ask could we get an official result here, i think its a question, brian, of place like Los Angeles county, seeing little bit of the same Day Vote to make sure Theres Nothing going on there we werent expecting. Unexpected votes, bigger margin than expected, something to bring 23. 7 up to 40 . That would have to happen in county after county. Fresno, A Million people. Heart of the San Joaquin Valley. We got 60 . Trump at 45 , recall at 46 , needs to be over 60 . Same story. Mailin votes put recall in position, you need a flood, avalanche, something unprecedented to bring it in. Havent seen one yet. Good on california. You and i spent many a long night painfully waiting for reporting this much. Bay area . This is the strongest democratic area in the state, 20 of the votes in the Bay Area. But go across from san francisco, Contra Costa County california, some of the most liberal counties in california. Gavin newsom was the mayor of san francisco, a Bay Area guy, maybe a home area advantage. But look again, 26 for trump, 2 3 of the vote in, 24 support for the recall. Its got to be much higher than that. Would take something wild in same Day Vote. State capital region, sacramento county, more than half the vote. Early mailin, little more democratic than the Rest But Trump is 36. 1 , recall below it. Sacramento county, look it up here, in 2020, Donald Trump First Report had 35 . Same group of votes, big early Mail Vote dump in 2020 had trump at 35 , he landed at 36 . Went up a point. More republican went up a point. This would be at 35 . Where does it need to be for recall to pass statewide . 52 , over 50 . Same pattern. Do we got anything new here . Yes. Is this let me check on this. Thats 95 in. Adam are you can you check on Santa Clara . Lets get clarification on that. What about alameda . That might be error that just came in in Santa Clara county. I want to check what just happened. Alameda cant, this is one of the giant democratic counties, early Mail Vote, 15 . Trump didnt even get 20 here. Same pattern. Solano county. 34 trump. Recall getting 30 right now. Looking at Mailin Vote. Same pattern. Lets go through San Joaquin Valley at few more. Madera county, close to fresno. 70 of the votes are in. Recall needs to be close to 70 to have a chance. Sacramento suburbs, placer county, outside of sacramento, trump won this county. It has highest concentration of college degrees for a county that went for trump in california in 2020. Got 52 . Yes is running 3 1 2 points below trump, 48 . Again, for the recall to have a chance statewide, probably has to be 64 , 65 . Around there. Its running low. Expect it go up a little bit with the same Day Vote but would it go where it needs to go . Just dont see right now how that would happen. Core democratic, where davis is, one of the most democratic counties probably in the country. Trump 28 , 27 . Seeing if theres exceptions to the pattern. Far northern california, tiny counties, rural northern california, trump 75 , recall running at 82 , this is largest swing in positive direction from trump to yes on the Recall Weve seen. See how small Lassen County is, 6700 people. And theres millions of votes in Los Angeles. This is most republican part of the state, also the smallest part in terms of where population is. Geographically big counties, population small. Santa barbara, 2 3 of the vote in, south facing coastline there, trump 33 , recall a fraction of a point lower. Recall probably needs to be in high 40s in Santa Barbara to be succeeding. Monterey, what happened . Donald trump had 28 , recall is running exactly where trump ran with 2 3 of the vote in. Monterey Last November. Same group was counted Last November, Donald Trump running at 25 , then counted more republican friendly same Day Votes, late mail, and it went up to 28. 2 . Increased three points. If current yes 28 goes up to 31 , where does it need to be . 16 plus 28, about 44 . Its on course right now based on the history and what we know about the turnout patterns, to be tenplus points, 13 points short in monterey county. Okay. This is this is what i wanted to show you a minute ago, let me check one thing with producer adam, was the vote flipped yes and no in Santa Clara . A minute ago we had Santa Clara, if You Saw shown you two phases with Santa Clara, where San Jose is, silicon valley, 2 Million people, getting into the Bay Area. One of the most democratic counties in the state, in the country. This is the Mail Vote in Santa Clara county. 71 of the Vote Right here. Minute ago we showed you update with yes somehow overtaking it. Mathematically with the difference of 250,000 votes, there was error in the system the wrong county was put in for yes, temporarily had yes jumping over the top, which didnt make sense. The Clerical Error has been fixed but its 78 to 22 . Inland empire, Riverside County, more than 2 Million people. Mailin vote, 5446 no. Almost 2 3 of the vote. Donald trump got 45 in Riverside County, no running at 46 . Pattern last time around, Donald Trump in same batch of votes started with 41 and ended up 45 . There was increase, republican shift of four points when they counted up all the other ballots Last November. If there were shift again, would be up to 50 . Recall would be on course potentially to narrowly win Riverside County. But whats the target . Whats the benchmark for the recall to be succeeding statewide . Remember what we said, take the Trump Number and add 16 points because he was blown out in california. 45 in this county, recall would need like 61 in Riverside County to be on course for narrow win statewide. Recall right now based on the historic math is on course for about 50, needs to be over 60. Notice the pattern in county after county. Did we get San Bernardino, half the vote in, another biggie here. Just so you know, this swath right here, more than 50 of all the vote in california coming out of these counties, San Bernardino valley, Riverside County, Inland Empire densely populated. Ton of votes. Trump, 43. 5 . Recall running at 42 . Its got to hit 58 in this county. Donald trump started get the number here. Started at 38 in 2020, so late shift in San Bernardino was 5 1 2 points, one of the bigger republican shifts in 2020. Got a shift of six points, recall would be on the course for 48 in San Bernardino county but needs 58 . Sizeable shift relatively speaking last election in the county. Republican vote increased 5 1 2 points from mailin to final Result F that happens again, still short significantly. Thats one of the better counties weve seen so far. Reset for is statewide vote. 60 of the statewide vote in. Margin is 2. 7 million votes right now for no over yes. We have counted a total of almost 7. 5 million votes statewide in california right now. Probably going to have 12 Million total when this is over, maybe 13 million, somewhere in that ballpark. Counted the majority right now. Whats been counted is most democratic friendly. Each of the counties ive been taking you through the math, on average republicans typically gain three, four, five points in late arriving ballots. If that were to happen statewide, what youre seeing now, 31. 5 might go to 35 , 36 . Theres more republican counties in the area, curran county, we dont have numbers yet. Shasta, where redding is, dont have number theres, could get number up into higher 30s, but big picture, brian, Mailin Vote coming in county after county, seeing Mailin Vote recall is nowhere near the targets it needs to be competitive statewide. Early Mail Vote is totally consistent with Exit Poll that showed Gavin Newsom comfortably surviving the recall. Its consistent with the polling prior. The piece that remains to be seen, waiting for the alert. See the big counties ive been taking you through, the same Day Vote be added in. Take for instance, San Diego County, math ive been going through, San Diego County, trump ended up at 37. 5 . Where did he start . 34 . Republican vote increased through same day voting, late arriving mail 3 1 2 points. If anything like that happens right now, yes goes up 3 1 2 points, anywhere near its target. I think what Decision Desk wants to see is same Day Vote from San Diego and few other places, make sure that basic pattern is what were looking at here. Thats the pattern from 2020, 2018, its well established pattern. If anything like that prevails here, recall goes down in a rout. But they want to make sure theres no surprise where recall doesnt gain ten points or something through the same Day Vote. Flood of turnout in unexpected surge of support, wasnt picked up in polling. They just want to make sure but i think thats the level. Would have to be something very dramatic, very unforeseen and unprecedented to swing these counties anywhere near level of support the recall would need to succeed statewide. San francisco in. Again, this is Gavin Newsom was mayor of san francisco, doesnt get more liberal than san francisco, almost A Million people there. Recall running a fraction of a point below trump. Marin, across the golden Gate Strait there, super liberal, lot of wealth here. Trump 15 . Thats the mailin portion. Target would be significantly higher. Sonoma county, starting to move up north coast, redwood coast, trump got 23 . Recall running at 22 . Targets going to be 40 here. Same Story County after county. Big picture, brian, zooming out, 60 almost in right now statewide, Monster Lead for Newsom Side against the recall, i think just waiting to see keep looking at map to see if something lights up. Waiting to see same Day Vote to confirm the trend looks like the past, would tell you for certain that recall has no chance. So to steve and our audience, couple of notes, well keep a camera on steve, if he waves his arms well interrupt whoever is talking. Take a hit of the oxygen i sent over to your apartment this week. Dont take your eyes off the map, thats our Lead Story this hour. All were going to do is bring in some of the learned guests we have standing by. Starting Front Line on this election tuesday night. Starting with philip rucker, Pulitzer Prize winning senior Washington Correspondent for the Washington Post. Coauthor of the New York Times Best Seller i alone can fix it. A. B. Stoddard, veteran Journalist And Editor and columnist, seema maitta, political writer for the Los Angeles times, cant wait. And mike murphy, veteran republican strategist who worked for Arnold Schwarzenegger when california did recall its governor Gray Davis putting schwarzenegger in office, cohost in spare time of Podcast Called Hacks on tap, welcome to you all. Seema if you have to leave to write journalism on deadline, let us know. Dont have to wave your arms like steve, were understanding. But for that reason, start with you. Folks that dont follow the ins and outs of California Politics in other 49 states who may be watching, remind people what led to the Recall Effort and how and why it picked up steam. Every modern governor of california has faced multiple Recall Attempts. Several times the backers failed to get signatures. This time around they were criticizing his policies on homelessness and immigration, not pandemic. But Pandemic Hit and went to judge for four extra months, it was critical. When schools and businesses were shut down and voters were frustrated, juggling with kids learning and working from home. And at the same time you have famous images of him dining at french Laundry Maskless with friends when telling friends not to gather with multifamily groups on thanksgiving. Thats the fuel for the recall, how they got signatures and attracted Donor Money for the final push of signature gathering. Timing made all the difference for the qualification for the ballot. As Lay Person where California Politics are concerned, correct me if im wrong, its relatively easy to force a recall in california, as were seeing at the map tonight, its much tougher to eject a sitting governor. Just heard Lawrences Interview with Congresswoman Bass before top of the hour, said she would like to tighten the standards, make it harder to force these recalls. Is there any chance well see something like that in our lifetimes . People are already talking about whether its increasing number of signatures or having two different elections, one for recall and second for replacement, talking about Lieutenant Governor stepping in, or only recall if theres criminal conduct or malfeasance. Its enshrined in the california constitution, cant just make it go away. They have to get to ballot and have voters approve it. Voters do approve reforming this expensive process. It cost 300 million. But also dont like to give up power. Its questionable whether this will actually happen. Lot of people talking about it but skepticism on the followthrough, if we wake up tomorrow and things are back to normal. Mike. A. B. Phil, im coming to you after i go to Steve Kornacki at the board with news. You can see the news with checkmark, Nbc News is officially projecting that Recall Attempt against Gavin Newsom, governor of california, has failed, its failing decisively. 60 counted in california, failing better than 21 margin. Difference is 2. 7 million votes, 35point Margin between them. Talking about the importance. Same Day Vote, some up to that, and theres no surprise in the historical pattern. Little bit of improvement in final numbers for recall relative to trump last year but needs massive improvement from Numbers Trump was putting up. Still a few counties, handful in the state, generally small Population Counties were waiting on the Mailin Vote to come in, then the same day will be tallied tonight and next days and week late arriving vote will be tallied up, too. This number will take a while to get up to 100 , and its going to become Recall Number will grow between now and when all the votes are counted but clear from what we have now, and Decision Desk and everyone watching along that this number will come nowhere near 50 . Its landslide, recall fails and Gavin Newsom is going to survive as californias governor. Steve kornacki with the results from our Decision Desk. Mike murphy, Decision Desk sees this done and dusted, all over but the shouting and final tallies of the same Day Vote. What did the recall of Gray Davis and resulting placement of the terminator in sacramento have that this didnt have . Watching the numbers come in, the truth is this thing has been dead for three months, tell you why as guy who ran the last recall. L. A. County, vital l. A. County, was split by two percentage in the recall. When you have a real recall theres energy in all the parties. Do well with independents and republicans, chip off some democrats. San diego was 70 yes. Been doing playbyplay on the globetrotters game, reason its been dead is californias changed. Since arnolds recall, still democratic state but republican registration in california is only up 20,000 votes. Democratic is up 3. 5 million new votes. Become much more democrat. That makes it harder based on tribalism. Thats why bernie sanders, Kamala Harris and President Biden were coming to make sure the democrats showed up. When you have a governor like schwarzenegger not about partisan politics, keeps the focus on the democratic Office Holder theyre unhappy with. This was tribal, trump republicans without identity, Blue Versus red and california particularly now, thats done and over with. Gavin was in trouble but had a blue Safety Harness that was always going to save him. Story tonight is still going to be convincing victory for him and he will make political hay of that going forward. To our viewers just this note, obvious in the righthand side of your screen, live picture from sacramento. Note the banner does not mention newsome, its all about California Democrats as they indeed have according to Decision Desk been victorious in turning away the recall tonight. Expecting the governor to speak. When he does, well take it live. Tougher question to answer, mike, as we await that event, how is it that Larry Elder ended up republican frontrunner, the man to beat among republicans . None of the candidates had Money Or Muscle or a base. In the beginning, Caitlyn Jenner was famous but not defined as candidate. Hired a bunch of trump people and disappeared. Larry elder is fixture on talk radio, good way to be famous with republican primary voters. Two more electable candidates, Kevin Faulconer and Kevin Kylie never got any attention and didnt have money. 46 people running, three or four making noise. John cox was traveling with real Life Bear and probably a lot of bear tranquillizers. Early poll said big name i. D. Elder is frontrunner, and became a battle who could outtrump, which is fun for republican parlor games but doesnt help win a state like california. Magnetic field of Trump Populism pinned them all down into a culdesac. Who among us hasnt traveled with a real live Bear Or Bear tranquilizers, saying to Phil Rucker hang with us, if we dont take a Break Theyll turn The Lights Out or something. Brief break well blow out of it if governor starts to speak. Special live coverage of Election Night in california continues after this. N califoian continues after this im norm. Im szasz. [norm] and we live in columbia, missouri. We do consulting, but we also write. [szasz] we take care of ourselves constantly; its important. We walk three to five times a week, a couple miles at a time. Weve both been taking prevagen for a little more than 11 years now. After about 30 days of taking it, we noticed clarity that we didnt notice before. Its still helping me. I still notice a difference. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. I wonder how the firms doing without its fearless leader. You sure you want to leave that all behind . Yeah. Stay restless with the rx. Crafted by lexus. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Ayy, ayy, ayy yeah, we fancy like applebees on a Date Night crafted by lexus. Got that Bourbon Street Steak with the Oreo Shake get some whipped cream on the top too two straws, one check, girl, i got you bougie like natty in the Styrofoam Squeaksqueakin in the Truck Bed All The Way Home some alabamajamma, she my dixieland delight ayy, thats how we do, how we do, fancy like, oh vo this is more than glass and steel. And stone. Its awe. Beauty. The measure of progress. Its where people meet people. Where cultures and bonds are made between us. Where we create things together. Open each others minds. Raise each others ambitions. And do together, what we cant do apart. This is space for dreams. Loopnet. The most popular place to find a space. We are back, and at 11 45 eastern time, 8 45 out west where it really matters, Nbc News Decision Desk has determined based on the votes already in, on the algorithms that tell them where this thing is headed, that the recall has been turned down. Governor newsom will remain Governor Newsom in the state of california. Back to our guests, a. B. Stoddard, the ongoing republican attack, very much on brand as part of trumpism, on the integrity of elections. Famously past 24 hours, websites went up announcing the newsom victory, sponsored on the other side, announcing the victory, saying it was compromised. How is that argument going to work when they win one . I was wondering the same thing today, brian. It is remarkable they couldnt just hold the button until the actual results came in. But this is its add because even though it seems so funny, the Free Speech Rights of Donald Trump have allowed for this situation were in, where millions of americans believe him that he lost the last election, and he is so so much ever since eroded the trust in the system that people have. If you look at whats happened since, republicans need to know there are two things at play here. Membership fee for participation in Donald Trumps republican party is you have to always back the Big Lie and you have to be a 1 6 truther. But when it comes to any other election, he will, even if you dont agree with him, Georgia Runoff in the senate January 5 or Larry Elders attempt in Recall Election in california, he will suppress the republican vote by coming out and saying in advance its all rigged, just like the 2020 election and its all a joke. Thereby keep the voters republicans need to turn out at home. If youre a candidate, know going forward in the republican party, you have to back the Big Lie. And then when your ballot comes due, former president can be counted on to tell the voters its all a joke anyway and the whole thing is rigged. Unbelievable but so on brand for 2020 and 2021, a. B. Phil thanks for your patience as well. Dual construction on this question. How important, according to your reporting and just your feel of the situation, was biden to making Sure Newsom prevailed . And how important is it to biden and his agenda that indeed newsom prevailed . You know, brian, i think its important for newsom that biden took the trip to long beach, california, for rally last night. Reminded the democratic faithful in california this is not a throwaway election but could have profound consequences. Remember biden was reminding voters in california that Larry Elder, leading republican candidate to replace newsom was as close to a Trump Clone as you could. Have they were trying to nationalize the election and make democrats fearful if newsom were recalled and republican would take his place would not be arnold Schwarzenegger Style but Donald Trump style republican. To second piece of your question, its difficult to nationalize elections in individual state, especially one as unique and heavily democratic as california. That said theres a clear takeaway regarding covid. Biden is facing highly partisan, politicized environment in reaction to the mandates he instituted last week federally for the Covid Vaccine and his strong advocacy for mask usage. Seeing in Exit Polling and raw results in california is overwhelming support from the voters there for wearing masks, vaccinations and of course for the strict protocols, the Health Safety measures that Governor Newsom has put in place in california. Mike murphy, elder is a trumper, just state that plainly, no other way to put it. Is there a danger to running a Trumper In A he was statewide frontrunner among republicans. Could it hurt or erode republican chances for suburban vote in 2022 in california . Yeah, the truth is again this is such a democratic land here, republicans are no longer viable statewide and we have Lab Experiment Number 84 here to prove it. If i were republican Senate Campaign Committee wanting to win in pennsylvania where the Philly Suburbs are so critical, wanting to win arizona, Take That seat. We have a formula now that elects democrats and trumps a big part of that. As long as trump runs wild we have a Brand Problem in the suburbs. While the house may be going our way for reasons outside of messaging, if they want to win the senate, time for changeup because trump is an anchor, and california is sign of that, even though its not very viable for republicans. Our man at the democratic Party Event in sacramento is jacob soboroff, interviewed elder and incumbent governor. Jacob what is going on we cant see . Reporter were just a couple of minutes away from governor walking in here to the California State democratic Party Headquarters for what really is not an improbable victory but a couple of weeks or months ago may have seemed out of reach. State faces multiple crises by definition of the president of the united states. How covid hit the state, highest economic inequality in the union and i do think Governor Newsom is going to talk about how voters decided to keep him in office amidst the crises. They decided to stick with him at time many folks thought he might be thrown out even by his own party. Focus has moved on to democracy. Larry elder said he wouldnt accept the results. When i asked him, he declined to do so. And when i spoke with Governor Newsom, he told me Point Blank win or lose, would accept the results and tonight he will accept the results in next minute or two, vehicles are pulling up in the distance. Jacob in front of the cluster of microphones and California Democrats banner. Steve kornacki, im guessing youre going to tell me numbers have filled in on the board, yet obviously in the Trend Lines that indicate the decision of our Decision Desk was the correct one. Yeah. Although i got to tell you, honestly not a ton has filled in since last time You Saw me. When we called the race, about 60 of the vote. Now 62 is in. If you didnt want to be up next two or three weeks waiting looks like governor is talking. Probably want to here we go. But no is not the only thing expressed tonight. I want to focus on what we said yes to as a state. We said yes to science, we said yes to vaccines. We said yes to ending this pandemic. We said yes to peoples right to vote without fear of fake Fraud Or Voter suppression. We said yes to womens fundamental constitutional right to decide for herself what she does with her body, her fate and future. We said yes to diversity, we said yes to inclusion. We said yes to pluralism and all the things we hold dear as californians and americans. All of those things were on the ballot this evening. So im humbled and grateful to the millions and millions of californians that exercised their fundamental right to vote and express themselves so overwhelmingly by rejecting the division, by rejecting the cynicism, by rejecting so much of the negativity thats defined our politics in this country over the course of so many years. I just think of our kids watching all of this, nightly news, day in and day out, and i just wonder, ive got four young kids, oldest about to turn 12 this weekend, and what theyre going up to, world were so divided, kids increasingly fearful, isolated, disconnected, and were teaching them that. And doesnt have to be that way. I think we owe our kids a deeper sense of respect. And all of us as Adults Responsibility to disregard this false separateness. Were so much more in common as a State And Nation than we give ourselves credit for. Ive been all over the state of california, over the last many years but notably the last nine months. Conservative parts of the state, Progressive Parts of the state, folks i knew would vote no and those who i knew would vote yes and did that. But one thing thats universal, everybody wants to be respected, feel some connection to one another. We all in this pandemic want to feel safe, protected. Those are universal values, and i think about just in the last few days, the former president put out saying this election was rigged. Democracy is not a football. You dont throw it around. Its more like a i dont know, antique vase. You can drop it and smash it in A Million different pieces. And thats what were capable of doing if we dont stand up to meet the moment and push back. I said this many, many times on the campaign trail, you know, we may have defeated Trump But Trumpism is not dead in this country. The Big Lie, January 6th insurrection, all the Voting Suppression efforts happening across this country, whats happening in the assault on fundamental rights, constitutionally protected rights of women and girls, its a remarkable moment in our nations history. But im reminded of something i dont know, few decades ago someone told me when describing a difficult and challenging moment said the world is too small, our time is too short, and our wisdom is too limited to win fleeting victories at other peoples expenses. He went on to say we must all triumph together. So in that spirit of recognizing and reconciling this moment, in trying to understand whats going on not just here in the state but across the united states of america, i just want to say this tonight im humbled, grateful, but resolved in the spirit of my political hero, robert kennedy, to make more gentle the life of this world. Thank you all very much, and thank you to 40 Million americans, 40 Million californians, and thank you for rejecting this recall. Good night everybody. Steve kornacki, having heard from Governor Newsom, take 30 seconds to fill in what we may have missed. Tell folks were at 62 of the votes counted up. Going to take a week or two to get it all to 100 . Some is slow. But this is going to be a landslide. Polling in advance of this in final week was showing decisive newsom lead, if anything underestimated what happened, clear, emphatic win for Gavin Newsom. State of california, home to 40 Million americans, beset by active burning wildfires right now and of course the same pandemic we are all battling and dealing with, that same state of california just spent a little bit over a quarter billion dollars to carry out this recall, legal as it was to raise, legal as it was to bring it to the polls, it did not prevail, the governor did, Gavin Newsom remains incumbent governor of the state of california. Our thanks to our patient guests, to analysis not the board. That is our broadcast for tonight. Thank you so much for being with us. Thanks don for joining us this hour. We have the book. We got it early. The book is called peril. It is by Washington Post Journalist Bob Woodward and robert costa. It is not published. Its not being published till next week. We obtained a copy tonight, evidence of Speed Reading here. On the Rachel Maddow Show specialty. This book has important news in it. Whats the book is about broadly speaking, the peril its describing its title, is just how fraught and dangerous the period was for the country