This weeks to the point. Im javier. Its good to have you with us and im joined by this weeks guests, catherine kluver ashbrook is a german american political scientist and a Senior Adviser for germanys beman foundation. Thomas is a journalist specializing in International Defense and Security Policy and ben hodges, former Commander Us Army europe and chairman of the glob future security and Defense Council to all of you. Welcome. Thank you very much for being with us and thomas, id like to start with you. Because were constantly trying to assess the state of this war. Crimea seems to be an increasingly frequent target for the Ukrainian Military and they now seem to have hit the Russian Black Sea fleet severely. How significant is that . Thats pretty significant. It shows the ability of the ukrainians to hit targets in crimea, especially the headquarters of the russian fleet significant. It shows the ability of the ukrainians to hit there. And uh so ukraine makes clear its willing and able to hit target there and Going Forward to achieve military progress with the help of western weapons. Is this new or is this something that has been possible before it has been possible before . But the scale is becoming different. Obviously, its not really confirmed. They used british storm shadow cruise missiles to hit this headquarters. This means those long range weapons from the west will make a difference katherine ukraine claims to have killed russias black sea fleet commander. How credible are these reports . And does it make a difference moving forward in this war . Do you think do you have a crystal ball . I think its been a difference moving forward in this war . Do you think its been really difficult, i think even for journalists, you know, on the ground to confirm what the reality is i mean, we have, were in the middle of an know, on the ground to confirm what the reality is information war, all the same. The russians have posted not one but now two videos off this ad sort of seemingly alive and well, who knows when these are dated et cetera, et cetera. If in fact, the attack, you seemingly alive and well, who knows when these are dated know, were talking about injured personnel and if this admiral in fact was killed, it, it would be a huge hit on russian morale. And of course, thats why you in fact was killed, it, it would be a huge see the information war ramp up the way it has on the russian side. And it also has a tactical and, and sort of strategic implications as well. It would demand a reordering of some of the command structure out of sevastopol. It is, it would be a very significant hit. Can we confirm this independently at this moment in time . No, we cannot. It is always very, very difficult now, ben ukraine is trying to sell the idea very clearly that the counter offensive is going well, but weve also seen significant russian attacks especially on the port city of odessa. How are things looking for the russian army from your perspective . Uh i would hate to be a Russian Private sitting in a trench right now knowing that from your perspective . Uh i would hate to be a i have a terrible logistics system behind me. Uh and commanders dont care about me and looking at ukraine every week increasing in its capability with 54 nations supporting it um the attacks that, that youre describing that have happened uh against uh crimea are part of this counteroffensive. The counter offensive is so much more than the, than just the ground assault. Whats happening with the trenches and the counter offensive is so much more than the, than just mine fields. Thats an important part, but its only a part the ukrainian general staff is conducting what nato calls and what the us calls multi Domain Operations where you integrate the effects of land, sea, air cyber Information Special forces. So this hit on the headquarters was not just a coincidence. This is the result of intelligence sabotage, commando raids, destroying radar. Uh the hit on the, on the dry dock in sevastopol, which is a very important hit because it destroyed maintenance capability as well as a submarine and a ship. And then the headquarters and catherine is exactly right. Its not so much the loss of a commander, whether or not the admirals killed, he can be replaced, much more difficult to, to replace 30 Staff Officers um i mean, that is a real hit on the ability of the black sea fleet. So finally, this is about making crimea untenable for russian forces, the air force ability of the black sea fleet. So finally, this is the Navy Logistics make it untenable as a necessary step to liberating. However, that might come at a very high human cost if we believe the russian side, im just going to confront you with this. The Russian Defense minister said that only in september, the Ukrainian Army had 17,000 casualties. What do you make of these types of statements well, first of all, the kremlin would be the last source i would use for any uh information, but theres no doubt that ukraine is, is suffering casualties. Of course they are. But imagine the human cost if russia wins i mean, the ukrainians know they are fighting for their survival as a nation as a state and they literally are trying to protect their families. So the number you decided thats about the number of ukrainian children who have been deported out of ukraine into russia. So i think ukrainians are not going to stop. They definitely say so been deported out of ukraine into russia. So i think and some experts agree they need to because this war been deported out of ukraine into russia. So i think will probably be here to stay. And that resistance and a constant supply of ammunition are decisive. Thats why the will probably be here to stay. And that resistance and ukrainian president traveled to north america to seek wider support for his defense. But things werent as easy as last time, dont be fooled by the hugs and Smiling FacesVladimir Zelinsky was hard at work during his trip to north america gathering military and Political Support from the global community. He gave a passionate speech at the un followed by a frustrating encounter with the Security Council from there he traveled to washington dc where he was welcomed at the white house and then made a quick stop to he traveled to washington dc where he was welcomed at canada. Defense minister. Tanks are already in marine to reinforce our actions against the capabilities. This statement could be alluding to further weapon deliveries from the United States which is apparently prepared to deliver attack ends. These missiles are capable to further weapon deliveries from the United States which is of flying up to 300 kilometers. Would this Weapon System be a game changer in the war against russia and katherine watching that . What do you make of slansky trip and his ability to gather more support, more money, more katherine watching that . What do you make of slansky trip weapons and more sanctions. Well, i was in washington at the same time as the ukrainian president and i can say that it was a decidedly mixed resonance out of this because in as much as he talked to republican lawmakers on the hill, quite, aside from the congressional speech we see now that ukraine is becoming a political play ball, not just ahead of the 2024 elections and the second Republican Debate we had in the last couple of hours. But as a matter of course, in the actual debate on whether we can keep the American Government open and functioning, kevin mccarthy, the leader of the House Republicans is pinning his own political fortune on whether or not and functioning, kevin mccarthy, the leader of the House Republicans the 25 billion or 24 billion billion aid package is going to be in what senate and Congress Senate and house actually sit down to negotiate on whether to keep the Us Government open. And i think that sends a house actually sit down to negotiate on whether to keep very dangerous signal that should put all the rest of the western alliance on alert that these issues around consistent american support wont just come to haunt us come the election in 24 but could become a very volatile moment in the continuity of the western alliance far earlier. And that not everything of course can be decided in the white house. How significant would it be if there is not, lets not say no support but less support. For the Ukrainian Army coming here. Well, the ukrainians are dependent not, lets not say no support but less support. For on western supplies. It relates to ammunition for artillery, but it also relates to new Weapon Systems. Weve talked about that weve seen the attacks, but the problem is im not sure whether there ban has an idea which version will be delivered. Um theres talk about the 300 kilometer range of the attackers in the usual version, but theres also talk of the Cluster Munition version which has much less reach what the ukraine needs is ammunition Weapon Systems with a long range. So the details will make a difference. Im going to test that question specifically to ben ben just to start with the two Weapon Systems that weve talked about so far. Im from costa rica, a country with no army. Could you explain to viewers who are maybe not acquainted with Weapon Systems . What difference does it make for ukraine to have say abrams tanks . Well the abrams tank itself, um its the best tank in the world. Uh the german leopard is exceptional. The british challenger. These are very good systems, but what matters most um are the people inside the tank and then how these tanks are actually employed . Um im sure the ukrainians will make good use of the abrams. Uh theres enough for one battalion, 31 tanks in a, in a ukrainian tank battalion. Um uh im sure they also will protect for one battalion, 31 tanks in a, in a ukrainian the location and time of their deployment employment uh until theyre, theyre ready as well. But, you know, 31 tanks is not gonna change the outcome of the war, but it obviously is going to help ukraine. However, seems to say that that it will change or it will be decisive. Lets talk about the attack against missiles. Then thomas ukraine has been asking for them for months and months will that really change the course of the war . Well first of all, we have to say there is no real single weapons system which will be a game changer that has been when we talked about the tanks, when we talk about short distance missile systems, everything will contribute but its not a single system which will completely uh lead to a different outcome of the war is the whole system. As ben put it in multi Domain Operations everything is of importance. And when we talk about the attacks, its again, its the reach which the ukrainians want and which will make a difference if they get the long range version. What exactly militarily would that imply to have this long range . This would mean that ukraine is would be able to reach logistic lines, supply points, command centers, all this stuff way beyond the range they have at the moment. So when we look at crimea, there is a lot of possible targets for these long range at the moment. So when we look at crimea, there weapons. This also applies to the discussion about german cruise missiles at to wars. Its um sevastopol, which we have seen would, wouldnt have been possible without this long range systems. And also we are talking about the bridge, which is a choke point for the supply of crimea. If ukraine is able to reach this bridge and to destroy it, this will really would make a difference. Catherine, weve seen ukraines allies very reluctant to deliver these types of weapons. Do you think it has to do with the fact that they would go into territory that ukraine didnt weapons. Do you think it has to do with the have control on just a year ago . Well, heres the thing, you know, its a sort of k a would a should a piece. I mean, weve seen this now what irritates me and i think many of us who look at this very closely is the fact that we dont seem to be learning out of our debates around when weapons are delivered and the kind of sequencing and conversely the kind of trust that we can put in when weapons are delivered and the kind of sequencing and the ukrainians. Thomas mentioned the cluster of munitions, you know the americans didnt deliver Cluster Munitions quite independently of attacks delivery system. But until they had written guarantees by the ukrainians and tara, the ukrainians are using that kind of munition system very effectively. We need to be supporting the ukrainians such that they can have agility, such that they can have independence in their Decision Making and such that we trust their tactical ambitions. And this is where were having difficulties across the transatlantic divide. The americans feel that there shouould have been a slightly different tactical approach taken but this is why the sequencing of the zelinsky visit plus the sevastopol attack technically should offer very powerful political arguments in washington, at least in the defense circles because plus the sevastopol attack technically should offer very powerful political it proves that they can use the british and french plus the sevastopol attack technically should offer very powerful political systems very effectively to the ambition of what the americans have actually laid out. You know, the americans have been very skeptical of effectively this, you know, this east and southern flank, the fight around bamut, the americans would have rather seen a surge into the south outright. It would have cost a lot of ukrainian lives would have been very difficult to hold domestically. But thats the kind of work we need to be doing and fundamentally, we need to learn out of our experience, poor negotiations around the f16. General. Ben has said a number of times you would never send american troops into a land war like we have it without the appropriate air cover. We need to continue to make it flex, make the Ukrainian Army be flexible and agile. And when i use this word we, i mean, the western coalition which above all needs to stick together. And certainly ukraine is trying to make that point as well, especially announcing advances in its counter offensive. After weeks of stalemate on the front, things seem to be going better for ukraine, important tactical gains have been made on several fronts and decisive weeks ahead of the european winter. Slow and steady is the key concept behind the ukrainian counter offensive which finally managed to break through russias third line of defense. Last week, it appears to have worked in tarmac, located in the Southeast Region of zappos. Russias Regional Logistical hub. Ukraine has also reported success from the fighting around but their base blow was to a Russian Black Sea fleet headquarters in sevastopol where ukraine is reporting a death toll of more than 30 russian officers. Latest in a growing number of strikes on occupy crimea with the objective of making symbolic and strategic russian officers. Latest in a growing number of strikes on gains in the peninsula that lies at the heart of russian officers. Latest in a growing number of strikes on the conflict. But can ukraine leverage the success to create a meaningful advantage or are we approaching another winter of grinding deadlock . And im going to toss that question to a meaningful advantage or are we approaching another winter of ben. Do you recognize, speaking specifically about the front lines in the south . Do you recognize a strategy by the Ukrainian Military or are they just taking whatever is possible in the south . Do you recognize a strategy by the now, this is all about crimea. Crimea is the decisive terrain of this war. Uh ukraine knows it will never be safe and secure and theyll never be able to rebuild their economy as long as russia occupies crimea and be safe and secure and theyll never be able to the russians dont care about donbas except that, that gives them the land bridge that connects rostov down to crimea uh so if the, if the ukrainians are able to liberate crimea or at least make it untenable, unusable for russian forces, then theyre gonna win this war. Uh the Land Component of the counter offensive is aimed at um severing that land bridge. Thats why places like tok are so important because once they get there and then they can bring up uh other long range weapons. Uh exactly so important because once they get there and then they as thomas said to, to be able to go after russian logistics. And once you have severed the land bridge either by fire or by occupation, then the only thing thats left is the kurs bridge and now crimea is in a real fix. And so this entire counter offensive is aimed at isolation of crimea, making it untenable and eventually liberating it. Now, long range precision fire are the key here, whether its in a or to more storm shadow or scalp or the ground launch small diameter bombs drones, whatever it is, the capability that the ukrainians need is to be able to pound sevastopol the air base at psaki, the Logistics Hub at jay. And if this is to be able to pound sevastopol the air base is happening two or three times a day, week after week, theres no way that the russian navy can continue to operate from there or the air force can operate from there. Taking back crimea