Days after the vote along himself promised to draw lessons from it saying he understood the messages given by the people. Turkey is heir to one losing his grip thats our topic here on quadri gonna talk about that im joined here in the studio by. Sade also the mayor he works for dws Turkish Department says. A great moment for turkish democracy but the real struggle has only begun. Alan poser as a commentator for the daily developed. He believes everyone has lost the trust of the educated leaks but he is far from finished. And floral accomplice is an analyst for the turkish politics for the berlin based think tank German Council on Foreign Relations she thinks quote the result of the local elections in south pole. And other metropolitan cities indicate a shift in political conditions enter. Thanks all of you for being here thanks to our viewers from wherever you are as well. Lower if we could start with yo. Whats happening in turkey and what are the voters in istanbul saying right now. Well i think what weve seen in the mens final actions not just at the stumble but also already in march is that the akp is losing its grip especially in the big cities in tacky the cities that youre always they have like large whats her relation the the Economic Centers of of tacky a man is stumble especially always he wa you know really important for the position to win a full for the akp always seem very hot full loss and i think what we see is that festival the position which is quite different factions of people actually couldnt unite around this idea of saying you know kind of like we all united against. The system for adult against this like one man regime at the same time we also see that you know more more supporters of the akp in the may hoppy coalition actually disappointed in the government and also themselves not. Turning out to vote as much as they did before maybe some shift at the disappointment in the akp might be an understatement dot charlie what do you think triggered this result. I think it has multiple factors obviously and economy conditions has always been one of the dominant forces economy is very big and and and and in turkey if we look at the breaking poioints when it went what what but when were talking about the similar Seismic Shift in the political. Environment in turkey over the past fifty years we always see the economy as one of the most important undererlying causes of that. So when. The public when when the people on the street are having. A problem with. Take bringing the bread at home. They are looking for alternatives and like this course might be a good driving force or other political factors might be good good driving forces but at the end of the day economies. And and the way that people. Can make an earning a makes a decision and i think one of the main reasosons why people decid. To jump off the ball to right now is because of the Political Economic situation in the country. Economics is is so determined in a vote especially one like this for a city like istanbul for big cities alan. When you look at this is it just the economics of the background to this vote or is it also aired one potentially losing his political instincts i mean hes the one who called for this re wrong vote . Right and that was a huge mistake because the first time at his party lost i think by thirteen thousand votes now they lost by. Seven to eight hundred yeah if you tell that seven of seven to eight hundred thousand yeah exactly i mean incredible and and people you put off the holidays. To be there and to be able to vote came back from the holidays from from from wherever they were to vote against iowa so this is this is a huge huge huge miscalculation and and if it be so people with but in spite of this if you look at the map of so the the the the election maps okay and you say that the c. H. P. s read your red rimmed the part of ticket tourists see you know is symbol is mia down there on tie downs on their role. There well western looking people educated people people have to do with tourism are situated they voted against out on but the huge inside except for on camera is still power base i mean whether the the rural areas you know the poor parts of the country the religious parts of the country people where where was soon the religious. It is is is very strong. They still vote for the akp and and and less you can bridge that gap tugs gonna fall apart as it as so often before were going to talk about bridging that gap and that divide coming up. In in the program id like to go back to lauren what you were saying about the akp and there is talk right now of a split in the governing party in the akp do you think thats a possibility. Wearing rooms have beeeen goingn for quite awhile now that im a prominent figures in the akp like any public john im old beat a double toll little enough to look cute im a what are considering forming their own movements unprocessed dissing away from the akp and i think you know if thahats the case if we will see that. The election has made that probably more likely i mean that they will see this like a little bit to do now to like kind of move forward with with such a missions. And there has been a bit me to kind of differences in opinion within the akp for quite a while weve seen. A much will criticism coming out of out of the akp itself charles you do you think that is something everyone struggling with right now keeping the party together. I totally agree with this point of view because ours on has already been losing the people that he started his own calls with when he formed a k. P. Back in the beginning of two thousand so the figures like i live away john up to block your amid the little the bland engine so and so forth these figures were belonging to their calls at that close was kind of actually bringing together the conservative masses with the center right leaning people in turkey and the akp has always been a coalition. All from different center right forces or sometetimes to an extreme right what thohose forcs in turkey so its base never presented a some sort of a political islam that is being depicted all the time. And once that t coalition starts to shatter and im what i want to go back to the economy and economy whahat is one of the reasons why it was chatter. Done you might start seeing those movements coming within from within the party and if you if you add the fact that i would and has managed to antagonize the people that he started with. And he surrounded himself with a bunch of yes men over the past few years dan he started losing his grip so it actually. Now based is the whole party is based on his charisma and nothing else because they are not producing into sort of policies over the past five years okay so you so youre saying there is a possibility that he could lose his grip on power. Would that mean from what im hearing is theres a possibility that he could be replaced by a broader conservative coalition with that get a majority in the country. I dont think so i and i dont think he would lose his group within his own party but his own party eventually it might lose its grip over the over to government so like you know if you go to an election. Sometime soon its not gonna happen before twenty twenty two two at least. Unless theres a early election called done the akp mightnt not be able to secure a majority within the parliament basra thats far ahead but i i i think we should focus on right now how his party it will manage to survive this all. This right yeah that its experiencing right now this related to the vote and the economy will there is a consensus right now. That this vote was free and fair and as alan was pointing out. Its also pointed out that there is a deep divide in Turkish Society between conservative voters mainly in the countryside and the more liberal voters in urban areas. Im so excited the right person has one justice has one love and unity. One people in istanbul have. One everythings great now. We will work for a Brighter Future together. Shoulder to shoulder really im so happy. You should get a little change was necessary. Although im gonna people had enough of the incumbent government. Yeah turkey needs a fresh blood to new rhetoric and a new face yeah i do i think this result is a reflection of that she knew has a mine. Has among it i think people dont see the good things tie affair one has done. Were all said our relatives came here from other cities just for today no were so disappointed [inaudible] i think. Well the government mustnt allow him to serve as mayor. Okay we just heard one akp voter theyre saying the government should step in and overturn the popular vote those last sound bite we listen to how deep are the divisions. Between the negative with negative things going on in the country. That has a resonance within. Within the you know Party Supporters within the masses but i think that residence is no longer. As valid as he it used to be so of course theres this polarization of course theres this the wide within the school site and i think what a criminal to death. Just for the municipality but its a big discourse and that this course is based on not polarization but having a comprehensive approach trying to reach out to everyone. And i think it turned out to be a good strategy because were seeing that like that from a few thousand walls we have hundreds of thousands of what difference it where in. Just three weeks later that means that theres a huge shift from the akp from the people who voted for the akp candidates and then shifted to you mumbled. So turkey is actually better tired off this polarized language there were eight elections in the country over the past six years can you imagine that almost one election including local elections and referendums. So people are tired of elections and you cannot do business when youre in a election environment we were waiting for whats going to happen after the elections and as you are tired from that kind of you marmon and as youre tired from that kind of a political division. And polarization then you starships. To a person whos giving you a whole animal managed to actually gather the whole of so many people and i think its going to be over time more successful. As he will continue playing this game because they managed to find a good strategy and they are developing then and there its just the beginning for number is going to be a long and hard way. To go and challenge the governments stuff allen when you hear about this type of political strategy did you think it could be a winner to bring the country together. You know i i really dont know know enough about the chp and and and in a low to to to to to judge that but what im saying is. Everyone anticipated this this is why he changed the system so we now have a president ial system if he was just you know Prime Minister all of turkey and like and like to resume in in in britain yeah he could be you know he might be out tomorrow but as a president hes in also dont forget that you know there are hundreds if not thousands of journalists in jail of teachers of people accused of being members of the crew land. The sec and before that there was a people in jail who he together with good and you got rid of out of the ministry and so on so he does it. I mean. I really wouldnt underestimate ag adelines. Power. He may have lost. The mass of people in in in istanbul and ankara and and is me a bit he has as long as a minute trees still behind the minis purge the ministry as long as hes the president. You know i the question is can a memorial and and the c. H. P. In the opposition keep up this momentum across the country i does one of the the real question should be like. In turkey potentially would pop or shift the hands in a peaceful transformation i think that shouould be the questioion that needs to be asked. Because as you said on your right and that the whole system is now structured in a way that i resolved. Keeps his grip. Over the country which is made it less stable in fact it is less stable politically economically internationally it is less stable but at the same time as i was saying the whole system is actually kind of keeping him isnt in power. And this like like i was trying to say earlier. Key to the turkish government did not develop a viable policy a policy that a state. Needs to address to the needs of its population in the past five six years so the whole system is based actually. Designed actually upon. Keeping a personality on power and that is one of the weakest point but at the same time that is one of the strongest point off the opposition not to be and not to be underestimated either i i i mean when when we look at them be. But at the same time a house of cards its a house of cards but we have to look at this base that that alan pointed out. Is strongly behind your to one i mean when you when you look at the numbers 45 of estable voted against mmo low. I mean that thats an important point and and for the akps candidate how do they view laura where they want the country headed this 45 in istanbul not in the conservative areas out in the countryside where they want to see the country headed. Well i think festival i would say it is stumble also has a very conservative area so i wouldnt kind of make this distinction six it is the liberal is stumble and the concern of him because hes white yeah and i think so i think for for a list of people that is still the believe in the president and that out on can deliver they theres a belie thats you know for them this is still the right direction even if its not perfect but its still the best option compact to the day happy pasta forget what position policies so i think always see you know the the support for out on it with a k. P. Isnt going to go away in like a day. Im in a single of people still think of the times with the akp really did develop the economy really well they look at readers improvements have been made to stumble and so i think its a question of you know kind of what did they see the future but also kind of disease who do they believe can deliver. Heroes of both solutions to problems and and who is a better alternative sure you have a an Economic Analysis here you think political islam is secondary to how the economys going but what of the conservative voters what is what is the base. For everyone want to see for the nation what are their interests one of their goals in reference to my words earlier like the akp has always been a quality tion of different forces within the society not necessarily coming from a very. Conservative background nor a political islamist worldview so does. Center right forces have come together and the akp banished to deliver within the first decade. What they were looking for they were looking for more representation they were looking for more opportunities and economic ways and weve seen this or huge boom . With in the in the countryside in a totally a dads new entrepreneurs came out new holdings were formed new companies startedd so the akp managed to create its own kind of a middle class [inaudible] the bays at which people are enjoying the things that modern capitalism can deliver. In their own way so this. Is still valid and i think one of the reasons why they the governrnment p party is still hs almost half off the support within the society is because we have the levers rector because they delivered that. But at the same time they are failing more and more day by day to that continued delivering that so thats why its my see if the proper might shift. Okay lets talk about the possible powershift who is the man that millions of people in turkey are pinning their hopes on ekrem imola. Lets find out. Graham immemorial addresses his supporters he presents a young and dynamic image his slogan is everything will be fine. The forty nine year old has managed to present himself as worldly and opened yet conservative and religious. To his style contrasts with the authoritarianism a president recep tayyip erdo. One the center left candidate of the Republican Peoples Party managed to garner votes for many kurds and a k. Party supporters as well. Sense himself as someone who wants to and can unite t the people. Get a bit about this s not a victory yeah this is a new beginning. Use another because john was a i would like to say that as of tomorrow as mayor. I will treat sixteen Million People equally it shipped out on a job as it were done due to much sputum. The Mayors Office in istanbul is said to be the key to the office of the presidency of turkey. Could email molo pose a threat to everyone. Alan what do you think can he pose a threat to anyone can he bring the nation together behind his leadership. I think not not alone is if you can Forward Coalition with with the liberal elements who supported the akp or what or what part of the akp he must reach out to the mall. Religious parts of society then if you can do that great [inaudible] john. I agree with that i think so far he has been playing the game rights. And if he doesnt fail in his game and if he continues. Gathering the masses behind them get get this gets the support done he might eventually challenge the leadership in the country what do you think laura is he ready for national politics. I think you know i i agree in that i think hes has been playing that we well right now im the question is can he actually keep that up because at the moment hes trying to unify. The more conservative as well as the nationalist as well as the kurdish as well as the secular liberals. So you you know i think the question is. Can you keep keep that up what he has been doing right now really s successfufully. Well jailing political opponents is one method the card one government has used as it sees it to guarantee National Unity. What point to the countrys failed to the kurdish separatist movement and the ongoing violence in syria as threats to National Unity are to one point to the countrys failed to as the primary element there but his critics say . Hes using these very real challenges as excuses to crack down on people who do not share his vision of where turkey should go sixteen of them are in court right now. For whats known as the gays a trial there some of the many thousands who been jailed for their political leanings. The silly record in prison complex west of istanbul is said to be the biggest of its kind in europe the court rooms are mainly for political trials. Sisixteen representatives of turkeys Civil Society are in the dock lawyers architects and artists accused of planning and financing and attemempt to oust air. To one the protests began peacefully in twenty thirteen they were primarily directed against plans to build on the site of gezi park in istanbul. Yet allegations of corruption and nepotism and president everyones government grew louder and louder. The more violence the police and state used againinst the demonstratorors the more nearby residents supported the protest. Demonstrations took place in other turkish cities as well. People were killed and wounded when everyone ultimately had gezi park cleared in june. Twenty thirteen back then there to one was already putting the blame on a terrorist conspiracy with financial backing from abroad. While these supporters hailed him as a hero. How stable is aired once government now . When we e talk about stability r the air to one government we also have to talk about the International Picture turkey is having a lot of problems right now the United StatesUnited States is . Threatening sanctions against turkey can err to one shot to afford to shift as he is right now towards russia buying the s. Four hundred Missile System. And risk his relations with the west. I think this question has to answer is one of them is that ireland has been playing sporadically this game why try ing to align with the antagonists of the west and get some. Reaction to it and then. Playing into that. In a way that he would gather. The actual support that hes looking for so its kind of like a leverageame for him if i may puput it thahat way so. It has been tried in the past and its work to an extent sometimes it doesnt. So one answer is that if you keep content if he keeps playing this game. He might eventually lose all the support thats coming from the west so thats one thing but the other thing is that. He should not underestimate and im sure he doesnt underestimate the fact that the boom the economy boom. That turkey went through over the past fifteen years was thanks to mostly of Foreign Direct Investment that came to from the west and that was me in from the west. And that yeah if you want something but that is. Some sort of important factors that turkey should consular at the moment because that money kind of dried out now. Ellen white what error one risk relations with the west at a time when hes experiencing so many domestic challenges we look at the voting to stumble. By buying the russian s. Four hundred anti Missile System well ill tell you why because we let him down. Because we lost syria because when the west said that you know Pre Condition we wanted to get rid of the regime in in in syria and we would do that by supporting a position. Add one with fully for that for a game and and demanded that i side to be removed now hes with the west lost to russia and iran who proxies in china in syria not if i will add one i would be hedging my bets which is exactly what hes doing hes not sure whos going to be the dominant power in the region. In five or ten years because america seems disengage in europe is. Busy chewing up itself so you know we know we need to get our act together if we want out of one to be on our side its really up to us laura we saw the gays the trial of the suppression of opposition voices theres a number out there. Hundred forty thousand people one hundred forty thousand people have been arrested im a d. Are you worried about a crackdown domestically a further crackdown when you look at a turkey today after this vote. As a possible response to the c. H. P. s victory well i think the correct that has been going on constant constant continuously im sorry i did and i dont expect it to go down i dont expect it to die down anyway yeah weve just seen at the start of the getty is the trials you know there was this thought that you know he might. That the immobile might get a meter sued full full full full insulting told so i say i dont think that this is going to die down i dont think were going to see like a kind of a peak and crackdowns all of a sudden again but i definitely think that its going to go dow. John what do you think. I think i agree with her and at the same time i think this gives the trial has a symbolic value because gives it for many people in turkey including the government circles was when the downturn started for the government. So like i was saying six oh since dizzy the government did not produce a viable policy okay for turkey and well see if theyll come up with one now. Id like to thank all of our guests for coming in today thank you so very much and our viewers rejoining us of course as well for me brian thomas. And the entire quadriga team take care until next dont remes that mean you are condemned to repeat it. What does o our countryss past tell us about our present . And how can it help us imagine a Better Future this w week two leading thinkers on thehe tricky challenges of democracy. What is the best tools and even the best words we can use . To create a Better Future. Thats all coming up although floor and to show the place where the people said call bee done take a backseat to the people who were doing it welcome