Even among those who may want to go out and shop and miss that activity, a lot of them dont have the means to do so. Woodruff all that and more on tonights pbs newshour. Major funding for the pbs newshour has been provided by life isnt a straight line, and sometimes you can find yourself heading in a new direction. Fidelity is here to help you work through the unexpected, with Financial Planning and advice for today, and tomorrow. Carnegie corporation of new york. Supporting innovations in education, democratic engagement, and the advancement of International Peace and security. At carnegie. Org. And with the ongoing support of these institutions and individuals. This program was made possible by the corporation for public broadcasting. And by contributions to your pbs station from viewers like you. Thank you. Woodruff the covid19 pandemic has reached yet another grim milestone, as the number of confirmed cases worldwide surpassed the five million mark. That comes as the u. S. Labor department announced its own staggering statistic 38. 6 million americans have filed for Unemployment Benefits in the last nine weeks. Yamiche alcindor begins our coverage. Alcindor as businesses across the country prepare for gradual reopenings, the number of americans filing for unemployment appears to be leveling off. The Labor Department said 2. 4 million americans filed claims this past week. That is a drastic drop from the surge seen late in march. But those numbers are still sky high. And the toll covid19 is having on the economy overall remains vast more than 38 million workers sought jobless benefits in the past nine weeks. Today before he left for a trip to michigan, President Trump said the country would soon be on the path to recovery. The numbers are going to be very good into the future. Were going to be very good starting with our transition period, which will be probably june, june or july. He wasn the defensive after the release of a Columbia University model that estimated nearly 36,000 deaths could have been prevented had social distancing policies been enforced one week earl i was way early. Columbias an institutio thats very liberal. I think its just a political hit job, you want to know the truth. Researchers at Columbia University said if lockdowns had been imposed just two weeks earlier, 83 of the nations deaths could have en avoided. But at that time, a number of leaders, including those at the countrys epicenter of the crisis, stood back. Relax. Were doing great. It all will pass. We want people still to go on about their lives. Alcindor . As the virus quietly subsumed their cities. Today, new york city mayor bill de blasio said he regrets not having more information on the virus. I wish we had known so much more in january, february, beginning of march. I wish we had the testing that would have told us whats going on. I mean, right now were not sure when this disease started to be present in the city. We thought it was march and now more and more it looks like it was february or even late january. And we just didnt have testing to be able to give us the full picture. Lcindor dr. Ashish jha is the director at the Harvard Global health institute. He said no model will be completely right, but there is no doubt delays and inaction had a significant impact. This is the entire point of exponential growth in outbreaks like this. If you think of a doubling time of five days, it means that by delaying by 10 days you have four times the number of cases, four times the number of deaths. Or if you had closed 10 days earlier we would have a quarter of the deaths we ended up having. Alcindor he travelled to the city of ypsilanti, some 40 miles outside detroit. There he met with African American leaders from the area. Black people and people of color remain disproportionately impacted by the coronavirus. Africanamerican communities have been hit very hard, including in detroit. Reporter he also toured a he also toured a ford motor plant where workers are now producing ventilators in response to the virus. Those containment efforts have been across the country. New procedures for airport screenings were released. The agency is urging travelers to wear face masks and to scan their own boarding passes. People are also urged to keep carryon food items in clear plastic bags to prevent agents from handling their belongings. Control measures like these are playing out across the globe as the tally of infections surpass five million. And countries with Fragile Health Systems are bearing the brunt by the weekend, cases across the continent of africa could top 100,000. The Africa Centers for Disease Control and prevention warned the continent needs to be testing about 10 times the mber of people already tested. For the pbs newshour, im yamiche alcindor. Woodruff its a question that provided a haunting backdrop to this days news how many fewer deaths might there have been if social distancing had started more widely earlier in march . As we heard in yamiches report, a group of statisticians estimate there might have been 36,000 fewer deaths. Had dramatic ste been taken sooner. But this estimate is based on a computer model. And the models have their limitations. Miles obrien has been covering the work that goes into all this, as he did last night, and joins me now. So, miles, you have been looking at this new estimate. What did you find about how they came to this conclusion . Reporter well, judy, its incredibly complicated stuff to try to model a pandemic thats moving exponentially and judging that against the human response to it. The basic form lay is they look at whosusceptible, whos exposed, whos infected and whos recovering, and then they measure that against mobility datacell phone mobility data, to get a sense of how well social distancing and sheltering in place is taking hold. With those numbers and correlations based on whats tually happened here in the United States, they rolled back the clock and assume that those mobile patterns that were in place when the social restrictions were being adhered to more in th country were instituted earlier, and thats where you get those numbers. If they had started two weeks prior, there would have been 54,000 fewer deaths, 54,000. Now, thats not too surprising when you talk about the exponential spread of a virus that is novel, but it does give some specific numbers to the particular problem. Woodruff so these are eyepopping numbers, miles. But, as you were telling us, there are caveats here. Reporter well, whats really important to remember is, if you to back two weeks prior to that date, first part of march, trooper only eight deaths in the entire United States associated with covid 19. So getting people to abide by strict social distancing, sheltering in place rules when there are only eight deaths total would probably not work very well. After all, people have to feel compelled to to things. So the models dont capture that particular aspect of it, the human nature component. Woodruff yeah, its so much of it, of course, is about the timing. And is it possible to know that these deaths were really preventable . Reporter yeah, thats an interesting point because we talk about social distancing, and we talk about sheltering in place as a way to keep the Healthcare System from overflowing, which would, of course, create more deaths, because people cant get care. But this particular paper, looking at these numbers, doesnt account for that, it doesnt sort out between those deaths and deaths that, frankly, might benevitable because it is, after all, novel coronavirus, and we dont have a vaccine. But an important pont, if you take, using as a template, south korea, where they instituted early action, widespread testing, contact tracing, and the numbers have diminished dray mattedcally. As a matter of fact, theyre getting back to work. Professor jeffrey shaman is the lead author from Columbia University and elaborated further. I dont think its inevitable everyone will get infected. If we were to hold this virus in check and reduce it analogously in the United States so instead of 20,000 new cases each day we only had 200 each day, we would be in a similar position where we probably could hold this thing in check a considerable amount of time while giving ourselves an opportunity to develop therapeutics and an effective vaccine. Woodruff so, miles, how useful is the information the doctor is saying . I think theres plenty of blame to go around, i think the important point is we settle into the idea its a binary, either were shut down, at home, not going out or weret at work. Theres a lot in between we can think about, including more usage of masks, much more testing and contact tracing. If you get to a point where there is a small outbreak, you can identify it much more quickly and kind of put a ring around it and stop i from becoming that wildfire type growth that we see with an exponential pandemic. So there is some there are lessons here, if we are willing to list up. Im afraid if we dont listen, were in for another surge pretty soon. Woodruff still some ambiguity, but you are right, something we have to Pay Attention to. Miles obrien, we thank you as always. Youre welcome, judy. Woodruff in the days other news, more than 80 people have died after a powerful cyclone swept through coastal india and bangladesh. The storm packed winds of up to 118milesperhour when it roared ashore wednesday. Bangladesh remain without power. China is considering a new security bill that could restrict opposition activity in hong kong. That comes after months of pro eaty so until they adhere weey esidt trumps longtimeector aer personal lawyer Michael Cohen was released from a federal prison in new york today due to the coronavirus. He arrived at his manhattan apartment wearing a face mask, to ser the rest of his sentence at home. Cohen had been behind bars since last may for tax charges, fraud, and lying to congress. He was scheduled to remain there until november 2021. His release was part of a widespread effort to slow the virus spread in prisons. In the president ial campaign, georgias bureau of investigation arrested a man who video recorded the Fatal Shooting of Ahmaud Arbery in february. He was taken into custody on a felony murder charge. The two main suspects, gregory and travis mcmichael, were arrested earlier this month. In the president ial campaign, theres word the Presumptive Democratic nominee joe biden invited both of new hampshires Democratic Senators for initial interviews to be considered for his Vice President ial running mate. Maggie hassan agreed to take part, but Jeanne Shaheen reportedly declined the invitation. Former Vice President biden has pledged to pick a woman as his running mate. Actress Lori Loughlin and her husband have agreed to plead guilty in a College Admissions bribery scandal. Loughlin will serve two months behind bars for conspiracy to commit wire and mail fraud. Her husband will serve five months. Prosecutors will in turn dismiss Money Laundering and federal programs bribery charges. The couple is accused of paying 500,000 in bribes to get their daughters into the university of southern california. And, todays unemployment report pushed stocks lower on wall street. The Dow Jones Industrial average lost more than 101 points to close at 24,474. The nasdaq fell 91 points, and the s p 500 slipped 23. Still to come on the newshour Virginia GovernorRalph Northam discusses efforts to reopen his state. The Trump Administration plans to withdraw from a critical arms control treaty. With the economy in freefall, the struggling Retail Sector faces a grim future. Plus much more. Woodruff the washington d. C. Metropolitan area, which includes parts of maryland and Northern Virginia, is still under lockdown. And it is one of three areas in the country where cases of the coronavirus are plateauing, instead of declining. Virginia Governor Ralph Northam oked the phased reopening of most of the state last week. Hes also the only sitting governor who is also a medical doctor. And he joins us now from richmond. Governor northam, thank you very much for talking with us today. You have begun to open up the state of virginia, like soany other states, but we also learned today virginia had the highest number of new cases reported since the pandemic began. How do you know that youre not moving too fast . Well, judy, first of all, thank you so much for having me on today, and i hope that you and your viewers are healthy and safe. We have been fighting this pandemic for a little bit over two months now. Our first case was on march 7th, and we have followed the c. D. C. Guidelines that were outlined, and those were looking at the percent positivity, the Hospital Capacity that we have, the amount of p. P. E. , the amount of testing, and most of virginia, judy, a week ago, was ready to move into phase one following those criteria. I have received Northern Virginia, which is neighboring with maryland and washington, d. C. , still have high numbers. We had discussions with their leadership and decided that we would delay entering phase one for two weeks. To your point, we did have a high number of positive tests today. The great majority of them are up in Northern Virginia. So were monitoring that very closely, and, again, were encouraging people in the Northern Virginia area to just stay home until these numbers go down a bit. Reporter woodruff and in a separate question, governor, which has to do with whats happening in the d. C. Area is that we see, as these areas open up in the less populated parts of the country, as in rural virginia, southern virginia, people from the urban areas are going out to these parts of the state and of the country. Is virginia prepared for what could happen as people move around the state more . Were monitoring that very closely, and we have encouraged individuals that live in Northern Virginia to please stay home. Weve had outbreaks in other parts of the state, as you know, judy, over on the Eastern Shore where im there, weve had outbreaks at our Meat Processing plants, Nursing Homes have been affected by this. So this virus doesnt know boundaries of counties and states, and we all have to just really remain villagetlanta and keep our remain vigilant and keep our hygiene, warrick hands, wearing face protection and keeping our social distancing. We know those things work and virginians overall have been very good about following those idelines. Woodruff how prepared would you say virginia is, because you have to factor in a certain amount of unpredictability, dont you . Absolutely. Thats why they call this a novel virus. There are so many things we dont know. We dont know whether its seasonal. We dont have a vaccination. Theres no treatment for the virus. So we are monitoring our numbers very closely, and we have the ability, now, and its Getting Better every day, judy, to do testing. Were hiring a number of individuals to do tracing. We have the p. P. E. That we have thats necessary in virginia. So each day is better. But, you know, one of the points i would make, judy, we have been fighting this biological war for over two months now and we started with no supplies. Being an army doctor, as i was, weve had our hands tied and, so, weve worked very hard to accumulate more p. P. E. , thats going well, and our testing capabilities, yesterday, we tested over 10,000 individuals in virginia. So each day is better. Obviously, were working to make it better every day, and we want virginians to be safe and, as we move into these phases, we will do it responsibly. Woodruff a different subject, governor, and that has to do with mailin voting. You reported yesterday that in local elections in virginia this week, there was a much higher number of people, i think you said you reported 55,000 virginians voted in these local elections with mailin ballots, much more than in the last election four years ago. Youre encouraging virginians to mail in their votes for the june primary. But we know that President Trump, in the last fe days and again today, is saying that mailin voting, in his words, leads to fraud. He said, in so many words, its illegal. He said its going to lead to total election fraud. What do you say to that . And do you see this as an effort to discourage voting in november on the part of democra . Well, judy, nobody should have to choose between their health and casting a ballot, and this is not the time to play politics. So much of what our president has done is aspirational. There have been so many mixed messages that have come out of washington, andeth really why were in somewhat the predicament were in now, but we need to make sure that we can allow individuals to cast their ballball lot andhat they can do it safely. So, you know, we dont know what this virus is going to do over the next weeks and months, but, certainly, if, i november, the virus is still out there and people are putting their lives at risk, poll workers are putting their lives at risk, and we need to find another means of voting to make sure everybodys voice is heard and that we can ele