Including arizona, florida, michigan, North Carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin. Were tracking each candidates road to 270 electoral votes. The number, of course, needed to win the presidency. Another big story, who will control the United States senate . A handful of races will determine that question. Were watching them all. So polls have just close in the six states with 60 electoral votes. Lets get right to it. You see right now, georgia is too early to call. Lets go to South Carolina. There is a Big Senate Race as well as the president ial. Too early to call. Were waiting for the vote there. And the president will easily carry indiana, the home state of Vice President mike pence. And lets look at virginia. It is too early to call. However, our projection is that it is a biden lead at this hour. Lets look at kentucky. Right now, too early to call. You see the first numbers were getting of the night. Vermont is too early to call. And lets look at how all this takes us on the road to 270 right now. You can see, donald trump with 11 electoral votes to bidens zero. It could be a long night. This will be an election like if other. We have Andrea Mitchell with us, chuck todd with us. One thing thats different is the enormous amount of mailin voting. 100 million have already voted. When you see the expectant vote in the righthand side of our graphics, that includes mailin voting. A term you wont hear a lot of, the expected vote. An educated estimate. It may change here or there. It will be the thing to watch. It is. Im going to show you how youll be able to follow it and well show you real fast here and take a look at one of our states right now. Here, hopefully we are starting, here, we should be able to see it here in indiana. Not yet. Well, well work on that. The data is coming in here any second now. Well go here. Lets see if it is working. Right here, were going to be able to tell you. And you will see this on all the state results all night long. Well tell you, in indiana, we knew there were 207,000 in absentee votes. Some states you will see the early and absentee take up most of the column. Your election day votes will come in yellow there and you will start to see the yellow. Places like pennsylvania, we expect more yellow than orange. And then this gray spot. This number, it is an estimate. It is an estimate. It could change throughout the night. We may learn more. There are more ballots or fewer ballots than we thought but this is the expected vote, as best as he can estimate it. This could move by anywhere from a percentage point or two but this is what will be letting you know about all night long. The main thing is we are counting the early vote and we are estimating day of vote. Well revisit. All night long. People will want to know, how much did the early vote impact as well. Andrea . What will happen in pennsylvania . Thats a place where suburban women did not turn out for Hillary Clinton in 2016. What we might see this year, it just depends on whether that gender gap shows that weve seen all along in the early polling between joe biden and donald trump for weeks now. Women are disproportionately affected by covid. The suburban white women have been going for joe biden. If that holds, that could be key in pennsylvania, michigan, other states. It could offset Donald Trumps big advantage with white noncollege educated men. And these women are staying home, many working from home, taking care of children. Theyre disto portionately affected by covid and theyre saying, they dont like the way the president has handled the pandemic. All right. We have a team across the country. Well check in with them through the night but first a look at where the candidates are tracking. Kristin welker is at joe bidens headquarters in delaware. The president is at the white house watching returns come in mixing yet again his official return. Are an event set for the east will room tonight. Several hundred supporters will be here watching this all unfold. Were told by people close to the president that he is sounding tired. You can hear it in his voice. It is raspy from all the rallies hes had in the last few days. Hes indicating he is feeling good, optimistic about his chances. So lets talk about what were hearing close to the president in this campaign. Theyre looking at some key battlegrounds and theyre feeling encouraged about states like florida, ohio, iowa, some of the states that have been on that battleground map. Arizona. Theyre feeling optimistic about georgia and North Carolina. There is a big question mark on michigan. I think many acknowledge privately, that is an uphill climb for President Trump at this point. Critical when it comes to the electoral vote. And then a really interesting state. Pennsylvania. I asked which three states theyre looking at. Well, pennsylvania, then pennsylvania, and after that, pennsylvania. This is a state where the president has campaigned more than any other in this 2020 cycle. There is a lot at stake because it could be a tipping point. The president has acknowledged it. Here the race, the polls show it is extremely close. A lot of eyeballs on pennsylvania. As far as the mood more broadly, i covered this campaign in 2016 when it was a come from behind win. I vividly remember Election Night with all of you as well. And there is the memory of that. But it is still lingering. This campaign has been an underdog before and could be an underdog and pull out a victory again. But there are also those close to the president who are looking at the way, suburban women, for example. Seniors have moved largely away from the president largely because of his handling of the covid19 pandemic. All right. Hallie, thank you. And whats the mood at the white house . Reporter joe biden watching returns in delaware after striking a confident note throughout the day and after making some final campaign stops. He was in pennsylvania, scranton. Where of course he was born, visiting his childhood home. He was also in philadelphia, urging them to get out the vote. Why so much focus on pennsylvania . Biden has been there several times over the last several days. They dont need pennsylvania to win the white house. However, it is very difficult for President Trump to win reelection if he doesnt carry pennsylvania. Of course, that is a state that he won in 2016. So thats why you see this intense focus on the keystone state. They like what theyre hearing so far in terms of the turnout rate. So they are watching that very closely. But theyre also watching the midwest. That blue wall that did not hold for Hillary Clinton. Biden has been there multiple times. Michigan, wisconsin, urging people to get out and vote for him. He says to vote for change. So theyll be watching quite closely. They said they dont need to win states like florida and North Carolina but those states could help biden with a victory. So there is measured optimism here. Some democrats privately expressing concerns that biden hasnt had the same Aggressive Campaign schedule that we have seen from President Trump. I asked the Campaign Official about that today. His official said, look, we feel confident. We feel as though we left it all out on the field. So now they are watching and waiting with the rest of the country. All right. Thank you. As mentioned, there is a big battle over the United States senate. Democrats need to pick up a net of three seats if they win the white house or four if they dont. And here are some results. Too early to call but this is a hot race in South Carolina between lindsey graham, the long time senator, and jamie harrison. We have a couple of races. This is too early. John ossoff and david perdue. Now we have the jungle primary, that is the technical term. It is too early to call. Both could go to a runoff. And that would be in january. All right. Lets look at the Kentucky Senate race. 14 , too early to call. Mitch mcconnell against amy mcgrath. In virginia, too early to call. Lets see where that leaves the senate right now. The drum roll with this. Democrats with 35, 30 for the republicans. We have kasie hunt right here. Shes watching the senate very closely. What are the big races you have your eye on tonight . You just walked through some of them. I would describe it broadly as is sunbelt suburb. What does that mean . Weve talked already about georgia. The suburbs of atlanta, the place that really could not just be a demographic shift that weve been talking about for several election cycles but a place that could really turn against President Trump. That not only has huge implications for the president ial ticket. It has implications, there are two senate races as we have walked through. One of them, senator perdue, a republican, running against john ossoff. If he can get to 50 tonight, that will be a sign that democrats are in for a very good night. Obviously, far too early to call that at this point but thats one ill be watching all through the night. That logic applies to these other sunbelt suburbs. Phoenix, arizona is another one. Martha mcsally running against mark kelly, a democratic challenger. Le republicans think that race may already be gone for martha mcsally. If thats the case, it is all about the suburbs of phoenix. And then the big surprise tonight, texas. We dont always think of texas being driven by suburbs but it really is. Houston, dallas, there is a senate race in texas. John cornyn, the republican senator, is an incumbent there. We have expected him to do better in texas. One of only a few places where you have a republican senator running ahead of the president. So some republicans im talking to who are pessimistic about texas suggest that john cornyn could hold on and perhaps donald trump could have a rough night there. It is far too early to say with any certainty about how these are going so far. Those are the places that i think will really determine control of the senate through the night. Everything is bigger in texas including the turnout that weve seen so far. Roughly 10 million votes about, 10 of all the early votes that have been cast so far. Chuck todd, are we going to get an answer tonight . What is the road . Watch the texas turnout. It is 17 million, thats what democrats say they would need to pull it off. So watch that tonight. Ill take you through our how to watch tonight a little bit. And this idea, what will we know and what wont we know . At the end of the day, we know these three states are not going to be reporting tonight. Theres a chance wisconsin could get a bunch of votes in before the today show. Which is always my measurement here. Before the today show. Michigan and pennsylvania, very unlikely. How do you want to watch the night . We know. Well see these early states here first. North carolina, georgia and florida. And let me show you why theyre so important to President Trump and why he really probably has to sweep the sunbelt. If you go back and get the Clinton States here to biden and our battleground map, and you give trump this. Well check that there and well in this and put maine in blue here for now. And well go, we have the ability to do this. Flip the maine control. And well get nebraska. You can see everything we can do. Heres the situation. If the president doesnt win the sunbelt states, and any of them, if he doesnt win the sunbelt states, and right now, well put them in red like the last time. If he just loses, if he doesnt get florida, if he doesnt get close, you have arizona which could be a problem. If wisconsin and michigan end up blue, and they lean blue right now, you start to see where just one of these sunbelt states starts to do it. If he gets a second, then suddenly, pennsylvania is no longer here. For the president , if he is able to hang on, and he hangs on, then look at what were staring at. Were staring at a onestate contest. Well all be wondering. What are the early clues . The early clues will be North Carolina, georgia, florida and arizona. One flip by biden there and suddenly the president s path gets really complicated. Two flips and we have an idea who the next president will be. Well be watching the sunbelt states. Theyre better at voting early and counting early. Well see. That might decide how long the night really is. The latest results when we continue with Election Night 2020 in just a moment. At tmobile, we believe you should get more. Thats why weve merged with sprint. Now its about to get even better. And as we work to integrate sprints network, our nationwide 5g keeps getting stronger. With the capacity and coverage to reach more people and places across the country. Who says you cant have it all. Now is the time for 5g. Now is the time to join tmobile. My grandma. My cousin. My greatgreat grandmother. She was all of 411 but very tenacious. A very independent woman. Driven, passionate. Embodied grit, perseverance. She marched. She wrote. She demanded. She was proud to pass on a legacy of civic mindedness to her descendants. Im very proud to carry on her story. All her story find their stories. Make them count. At ancestry. Another bundle in the books. Got to hand it to you, jamie. Your knowledge of victorian architecture really paid off this time. Nah, just got lucky. So did the thompsons. That faulty wiring couldve cost them a lot more than the mudroom. Thankfully they bundled their motorcycle with their home and auto. Theyre protected 24 7. Mm. What do you say . One more game of backgammon . [ chuckles ] not on your life. [ laughs ] when the lights go down [ laughs ] bubbles at this price . Is this for real . Oh, its real. Believe me. I mean this is upexpected. You would say. Remarkable . Absolutly. A remarkable deal. Thanks. I get that all the time. Wait. What . grocrey outlet jingle. Welcome back to Election Night on nbc news. It looks like the virginia president ial race, its too early but we can report that biden is leading in virginia of the. Lets look at georgia. It is a swing state this year. We dont usually say that. Were starting to get votes in. South carolina, too early to call there as well. In vermont, we can project that joe biden is the winner in vermont. Thats the new call. We just got that in. Not a surprise but yes. Lets go to rehema ellis in philly. The democrats are hoping for a high turnout to break out what happens in other more rural parts of the state. What are you seeing . What were seeing here is that right now, in this philadelphia area that were in, the voting has been quiet. It was very heavy in days leading up to this. They got a lot of mailin ballots brought into the state. So many people went out and stood in line to cast their ballots early. We talked to people and found out one of the things they were really concerned about here was covid19. For the first time they had over 400,000 mailin ballots for this election and they received more than 330,000 before this election day began. So thats why they think, they didnt have very long lines here. But the other parts of the state, they did have long lines. One of the things really important here, they tell us it is not likely theyll be able to call this race for either candidate because the democratic governor of pennsylvania says theyre going to count all those mailin ballots. If they are properly post marked tonight by 8 00, they will be counted even until friday. All right. Thank you. And chuck, youve been looking at the exit polls. What do you see in your tea leaves . Well, we have some georgia exit poll numbers among white voters here. And this is a key. When democrats do well in southern states, they have to essentially perform better with some white voters. They have to get to the 30 mark. Heres whats interesting. The last time a democrat carried georgia was in 1992, it was bill clinton. Also the last time that any democrat got more than 30 of the white vote. Right now joe biden is sitting at exactly 30 of the white vote. You can see 2004, 2016. The last time its been there. The magic number to watch there. The 30 mark. Thats usually what democrats need in georgia assuming they have the africanamerican turnout they need. And georgia looks like it. Thats why democrats are so bullish on georgia. Until we have the votes, we have the exit polls. They are including dayof votes and the surveys from early voters. Weve seen it before. The exit polls can overstate by a point or two. Were able to, as we see real returns come in. We match it. Were able to reweight it. The point is, winning candidates, winning democrats in states like georgia, get 30 of the white vote. The exit is saying that. Lets see what the real returns say. All right. Thank you. Well take a short break. Well be back with more nbc news 2020 Election Night coverage. Are all retinol serums created equal . No. New no7 advanced retinol night concentrate from americas number one serum brand. Five times more retinol than the no1 retinol serum yet formulated to be gentle on your skin. Delivering the combined power of retinol and matrixyl 3000 plus. Results after just one night. Five times more retinol than the no1 retinol serum. New no7 advanced retinol night concentrate. No7 we love our new home. Theres so much space. We have a guestroom now. But, we have aunts. Youre slouching again, ted. Expired, expired. Expired. Thanks, aunt bonnie. Its a lot of house. I hope you can keep it clean. At least geico makes bundling our home and Car Insurance easy. Which helps us save a lot of money oh, teddy. Did you get my friend request . Uh, ill have to check. doorbell ringing aunt jonis here for bundling made easy, go to geico. Com. Hello . Im szasz. For bundling made easy, go to geico. Com. [norm] and we live in columbia, missouri. We do consulting, but we also write. [szasz] we take care of ourselves constantly; its important. We walk three to five times a week, a couple miles at a time. Weve both been taking prevagen for a little more than 11 years now. After about 30 days of taking it, we noticed clarity that we didnt notice before. Its still helping me. I still notice a difference. Prevagen. Healthier brain. Better life. Welcome back. Bottom of the hour. Well get a poll closing in North Carolina. Thats a biggy. Yeah, 7 30 east