the cdc recommends isolation for most people who test positive for have been exposed to the virus, from five days to ten. during evidence people are most infectious in the early days of the illness. let's bring and doctor farney makary, johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health and fox news medical contributor. marty, welcome, good to see you. let's start with talking about the omicron variant where we are, these new studies about t cells and how they seem to be very active against the omicron variant and maybe reducing the severity of covid. >> we got a lot of good news this week, a study out of johns hopkins that confirmed the t cell immunity from omicron and delta crossover, there's good cross immunity. the t cell immunity doesn't really protect you from getting the infection but it does prevent severe disease, it takes a few days to kick and it's powerful. we got another promising study that answered the open question, does it omicron immunity cross over to delta? it was found it's four times immunity against delta so it does answer the question will omicron displaced delta? yes. much of the world will not have access to a vaccine, for the rest of the world we can recognize at least there's an end in sight to this particular variant as omicron sweeps across many countries. paul: with that good news in mind, talk about the new cdc guidelines reducing quarantine. to five days from ten, do you think that was a sensible move? >> a move in the right direction but not based on new information, the cdc argued it's based on new evidence but the evidence was a study of six people describing the six people a month ago had mild omicron infection in brassica, there's tremendous public pressure right now for more reasonable and sensible set of policies, people are fatigued and exhausted and seen through policies, recognizing they are not sustainable because tempter 25% of the population in the country will get respiratory infection every year, we need a way to work with the infections and be smart at the same time. paul: because a lot of people on the right and left criticizing the guidelines, it seems to me and if you disagree, please do but it seems to me it's a creeping reality that we are going to have to live with this, we do not want to shut down society at the economy every time we get a new variant. what is your response to that? >> if we use the same criteria for restrictions, closing schools, universal masking and quarantine, we will in this perpetuity forever because of influenza, there's a whole host of respiratory pathogens, this one is heavily stigmatized and we got memories when the cases were higher but people should feel good about their immunity. paul: controversy bring up at home rapid test, pcr tests and the administration is rushing out to try to address the shortage, how serious do you think this is is a failure of government or should we even be concerned about testing? >> it's been debated among experts whether or not a universal testing program is something we should be doing, i happen to think there's value in testing but we don't do so with influenza each year, test coming out is about 150 million a month based on three months prediction of when it would take to roll out the 500 million pests on items, we need to billion a month to duke universal testing they called for the you can't have it both ways, you can have limited scarce supply and universal testing guidance, otherwise you create a black market which we are seeing, price gouging, magnifying inequities among poor people in the u.s. and the public is getting frustrated so we need guidance on selective testing program that says just test these particular situations, if you are around somewhere vulnerable, change your behavior. paul: if you're a symptomatically, you are saying you shouldn't test, weight until you have symptoms that could be covid or if you are going to see a loved one or your grandmother or somebody who is immunocompromised or at risk? >> yes. we have test everywhere then maybe it would make sense to test but we got a limited supply and we have to use them in a precious way. paul: all right, i think i know your answer but for people who are fatigued, it will be three years in february where we are dealing with this in a major way, march when shutdowns happened two years ago, i think people want to know about 2022, can this be the year we look forward -- we know we are not going to do away and eradicate the virus but put into the context what we usually consider the flu her usual run of respiratory diseases and viruses we cope with every year? is this going to be the year that happens? >> yes it is, probably in the next few weeks we will see omicron peak and it spreading so quickly that may even be accelerated further, think about a bad flu season when half of everybody you know will get the infection, it will confirm immunity about the delta evidence is an and therapeutics are impressive not just flu, it's currently available but the new drugs for merck and pfizer will help significantly. paul: that's also very good, thank you doctor makary, appreciate it. public cases spike again, who calls from lawmakers for another round of pandemic relief from more spending on the way? what else does congress have in store for the new year? store for the new year? ♪♪ congress set to return from winter recess january 102022, weeks before the november midterm. trump salvaging president biden's build back better plan to a sweeping overhaul, federal elections, our panel is here with a look at what democrats hope to get done in the new year. joining me now, street journal columnist dan henninger an editorial board member, kyle peterson. dan, election year is notorious for congress not getting things done but i wonder if you think this could be the exception as democrats try to salvage something from their professional majority. >> i kind of doubt that because they are democrats and the democrats running for reelection in november are caught between a rock and a hard place, the rock is senator joe manchin of west virginia, he's resisted build back better for an entire year. the hard places the democratic left, progressives and those who support go back better and what has to be understood, i think is the progressives are willing to get these things past. their only opportunity to do it and if they lose this, they are not going to be able to return to this legislation for a long time so it's do or die for them, i think they've sacrificed a lot including members of their own party if they could get some of the spending past, joe manchin is standing there resisting and so far there's no indication that they can revise the spending plans in a way he'd find acceptable. i'm expecting more gridlock as the year goes forward and they peel off and start looking at other legislation that doesn't involve spending or perhaps asking the president to do executive order. paul: i don't think -- i think a little different on this, i think the democrats, the left in particular may, may look reality in the face in the form of joe manchin and say you know what? joe, what will you vote for next paragraph the bill to do that and then declare a great victory, maybe half a trillion dollars in green energy spending but they were take the victory they can get, what you think of that? >> i think dan makes some good points but i am inclined to agree with you, joe biden will drive over the line and he'll do it by focusing on things joe manchin can go along with, my even get help from mitt romney if they try to do something with the child tax credit for people with children. you might also see the left, progressive left going along with it because they realize come november if they don't have anything to show for two years in office, they will be in trouble. paul: kyle, what about the other priority, voting rights? national election laws and all 50 states trying to get through but again, they will have to bring the filibuster because they can't use reconciliation so they will have to get through manchin and sinema and others who don't want to do that, is there any chance that happens? >> i think it looks unlikely. chuck schumer is the majority leader said he plans to hold a vote in january on some version of hr one, the massive bill, one part would be a requirement state count mail ballots that arrive a week late and if they don't have postmarks on them, they can be counted even if the voter stated, stated them on time before the election but she doesn't support breaking the filibuster and joe manchin says even though he supports this specific version of hr one and some talk joe biden said maybe the senate could make an exception to the filibuster for democracy and voting rights bills but there's no specifics on how it works and you can't make an exception to the filibuster, if there's one tiny hole, republicans will do the same next time in the filibuster would be gone. i think they will choose not to go there. paul: mary, the other issue, another covid relief bill, i know you can't wait for your check, do you think congress may be going there again using omicron as the excuse? >> i think it will be very tough, they've pumped a ton of money into the economy 2021 and we have inflation as a result and i think joe manchin main resistance to the bill apart from problems with the crime issue is the spending and results on a average american families, i think it will be tough for them to do that. paul: dan, i want to put you on the spot, prediction for the midterms, will republicans take the house or not and what about the senate? >> i think republicans are taking over the house for sure. the question is, how many states? the senate depends on the economy, inflation and how poorly joe biden appears to be doing. the approval rating gets done 30%, we could see republican senate next year as well. paul: when we come back, democrat scrambling to get the biden agenda through congress as midterms loom. karl rove with a look ahead to the elections in which party is poised to come out on top. ♪♪ when you have xfinity, you have entertainment built in. which is kind of nice. ah, what is happening. binge-watching is in the bag, when you find all your apps, all in one place. find live sports faster just by using your voice... sports on now. touchdown irish! [cheering] that was awesome. and, the hits won't quit, with peacock premium included at no additional cost. all that entertainment built in. xfinity. a way better way to watch. happy new year with a new focus on the 2022 midterm election, democrat scrambling to protect majorities in the house and senate, flipping control in november and polling suggests contracts to back the house. recent foxbusiness poll shows republicans with a four-point feed in the generic ballot with 43% of registered voters think they support republican candidates versus 39% support the democrat. let's bring an fox news contribute, karl rove, senior advisor to president george w. bush. karl, happy new year. let me start by getting to your column this week, highly entertaining review of your own hits and misses a year ago and predictions but the one thing that struck me was you said you'd overestimated joe biden, who thought he would be more effective than he has been, what did you miss? >> i thought he would govern as he said during the campaign, the big issue was trump fondled covid and promised normality and i thought he would be a traditional democrat trying to find and cut deals and find incremental ways to move the country in his duration but a study came out particularly with the build back better, he just aligned himself with progressive wing in the party trying to do big transformational things the american people were prepared for and congress wouldn't pass. if you want to do a big thing, you've got to make big part of your campaign and where did he say about the largest explosion of federal welfare spending in the creation of the new deal or the great society? nowhere. as a result, it's come to an end, i think it is said but he certainly didn't prepare the american people for. paul: as we look ahead, we are still 11 months out but as you look at midterm elections in the past, because the first year of a presidency set things up in the public mind so much that barring some enormous event, the presence low approval rating, advantage for republicans, both are likely to stay throughout the rest of the year up to the election? >> absolutely. since 1818 and the political scientists call second american party system, there have only been to first midterm elections for the party in the white house gained seats in the house, 1932 and 2002, the great depression and 9/11 to create that so the democrats will lose the house, i don't think there's any question of fact. the question is, how much of origin? world war ii, average seat martha midterm election has been about 30, i think republicans will gain fewer than 30 seat but take majority and only gain fewer than 30 seats because he didn't and extort my thing in 2020, they got a head start picking up 13 seats in the 2019, 2020 cycle so republicans will take the house. senate is but at the end of the day, republicans run campaigns in the four states they have defense seats, wisconsin, pennsylvania, north carolina and florida will be competitive pick up a couple of seats in the states or democrats are at risk of that, arizona, georgia and new hampshire, republicans will take it by one or two but it will require better candidates in place in arizona and new hampshire than they have today. paul: so you are saying even if democrats managed to salvage something out of the build back better plan, maybe the child tax credit or childcare entitlement, a lot more spending on green energy, taxes on the wealthy, they were counted as a huge victory but it won't be a different? >> it takes something much bigger and step back, 30% of the american people think the country is going in the right direction, 62% saying it's off on the wrong track, it's hard to change that number. the president has the lowest approval numbers of any modern elected president with the exception of donald deary trump and we note 2018 turned out republicans so absent some, 1962 in the october missile crisis, 9/11 great depression and suddenly a recovery, without the position of a gigantic major redefining moment, we will see the election play out like all midterm elections do. paul: so the republican in the senate, mitch mcconnell widely reported to have said that there will be no republican agenda governing, but they will offer in the campaign of 2022 or if they do manage to take back congress, is that a wise strategy or can they do it by running the democrats? >> well, they quit but i think they will have bigger victories and durable victories if they begin to articulate what is they want to do, i'm one who believes is easy what you are against, it's hard to say what you are for but more important to say what you are for so i think republicans better be prepared to talk about what is they see wrong with the biden administration and say these are the changes we want to make as individual candidates and asked a party to deal with the challenges the country faces so i agree with leader mcconnell but on this i think he's mistaken. paul: thanks, good to see you. have a great weekend. still ahead, u.s. beginning the new year with inflation rates it's not seen since the 80s. for the crisis continue to rise in 2022? how will the biden administration respond? >> addressing this will and has been and continues to be my priority in the entire administration. ♪♪ united states ending 2021 with inflation rates not seen since 1982. american consumers paid from everything from groceries to gasoline in the biden administration ramble to contain the political fallout blaming oil and gas companies and meat processors for rise in prices. will inflation persist in the new year? how will the federal reserve respond? we are back with dan henninger, mary o'grady and kyle peterson. mary, the question for 2022, economically, how long will inflation persist or are we going to see it back down to normal levels? >> it's elevated and likely to stay elevated until begins to remove monetary accommodations from the system so the question is, when and how much whether that act? one think that i think is worrying is the economy is going to be weaker at first than anticipated even six months ago because of the omicron virus and the response by government, sorry to the variance. on top of that you will have more pressure because there are a lot of people on the sidelines were not going to go back into the workforce unless they are offered better wages so upward pressure, the fed will have to act in the delay because it's worried about the economy slowing down a little bit in the first quarter, that would be a problem. paul: kyle, mary put it on the fed, a big part of it obviously, what do you think jay powell and new appointees he's going to get, i think biden has at least three appointments to the fed, what you think they will do? >> that's the million-dollar question but it seems all throughout this chain of events, they spent a step behind the figure for november, year over year inflation is alarming from of december is a big spending month, tickle me elmo's and the worry i think is it doesn't have to stay that hi, it just has to persist long enough to spiral, you have workers at john deere, kellogg's asking for cost of living increases adjusted in the contracts in the worry is other workers, the price of frosted flakes and saying i need a bump to take care of my inflation and at the beginning of a negative trend. paul: the view on the left saying it's not really the fed at all, supply and demand mismatch and as the shortages and supply chain is fixed, inflation will take care of itself and the fact doesn't have to do much at all and shouldn't because it doesn't want to raise interest rates and sent the economy down, how do you respond to that? >> i respond that they are stretching their own arguments to the list limits of possibility. friedman said inflation every time, a monetary phenomenon but we remember how fed chairman, they would routinely go up to capitol hill and say we need help on the physical side congress and what they meant spending. the congress has spent trillions upon trillions of dollars with all of this liquidity into the economy and that response foreshore creates enormous amounts of demand, pushing inflation up to the levels we are seeing right now but they may say bottlenecks will simply open up on their own but there's no evidence of that happening because the democratic congress has done nothing but suppress the supply side, especially in the area of energy with the keystone pipeline shuts down and other anti- energy policies president biden and actor, energy producers in the u.s. say we are not investing until that is clarified and that creates upward pressure on prices. paul: mary, talk more about that but because as you go into the second year of the administration, they have a harder time getting things through or not they will focus on the regulatory side, executive orders and try to do with i can't get past from capitol hill the regulation. if you go with financial regulation, climate as a new part of financial regulation, if you put restrictions on oil and gas, that's going to reduce the supply side of the economy and could feed into crisis, am i wrong? >> that is right and certainly the reason those of us who believe and growth and put emphasis on that is because we think the supply side is very important that i would go back to the monetary angle because i think what we have is a fed that is okay with two and a half percent or 3% inflation and signaling, the markets are saying they expect about two and a half% so it's signaling you better get used to it probably as kyle says, they are going to be behind the curve. paul: but two or three, they love it at this time, four or five for all of next year, right? >> i do think it will come down later this year because they expect to raise the rates, maybe three times so the expectation is that but they need to signal the market that they are serious and they are not doing that right now. paul: still ahead, new year end set of global challenges for the biden administration as the world's autocrats continue. general jack keane on the latest threat from china, next. ♪♪ a new year end new set of global challenges for the biden administration as adversaries continue to test presidents resolved. the communist party's continuing crackdown in hong kong, hundreds of police officers rated headquarters wednesday and arrested seven people, latest in a series of assaults in the city under a new national security. tensions over taiwan continue to grow with the senior chinese diplomat thursday the u.s. will pay on unbearable price for supporting the island nation. let's bring an four-star army general jack keane, fox news senior strategic analyst, crime, happy new year to you. let's talk about china, a couple of big events, one hosting which olympics in february and bent in the autumn, the communist party committee meets expected to anoint xi jinping, the present as part of chairman which would make him the most powerful chinese leader, what does that foretell china this year? >> well certainly there will be something of a hiatus in terms of china's aggression in the region given the winter olympics. they are going to be on the world stage and they want to get all they claim they believe they deserve for that but that being said, there strategic goals have not changed from their regional goals in terms of dominating the region have not changed and as you mentioned, congress is coming up toward the end of the year in the fall and that will certify president xi jinping for third term but implications will be indefinite term and i think they will step up most likely fair intimidation and coercion in the region prior to that to solidify and consolidate the members of the party congress that president xi jinping is the only person for the moment, he's the only person who can achieve the so-called china dream which is their destiny so guess, a key year to be sure danger continues though because while i think the biden administration has taken on some of the trump policy, i have significant concerns because there's a lot they haven't done, china has economic technological military abomination and in the economic side thought by now we would have a trade deal with the uk, i thought we would push back on china's initiative, the biden administration said we will compete but there's not a lot of evidence with competition going on there, they could through the ring in terms of revised economic deals taking place in the region, technologically we've not deterred china one bit from the massive cyber warfare campaign they are conducting to steal intellectual property and our secrets. in the area i am most concerned is militarily. china outgunned us, they have more airplanes and submarines, more ships and more muscles than we do in the region. the balance of power has significantly shifted to china's military. we are not moving quickly enough in the near term, i know we are advancing technology in terms of research and development for the future and advanced technology and we need to do that and i give them credit for the defense budget to accommodate that, congress of course did that over the biden administration but in near term, we need to put military capacity in the region to return to an effective deterrence, we do not want china's military to be incentivized and given intimidation coercion that's going to continue to go on with taiwan and other countries in the region, we don't want them to feel they can get away with something dealing with taiwan and fast by the military deterrence and movement capacity into the region we have is critical. we are not moving fast enough to do that. paul: general, i want to talk about hong kong here because what china did was basically break a treaty signed with britain to give economy to hong kong for 50 years. an international treaty. i don't think they've paid much of a price for that, very little, we stopped our feet and said some things and sanctioned local officials, that's about it. what message does that send to xi jinping what he can get away with regarding taiwan? >> certainly that began in the previous administration, trump pushed back very hard economically and we give him credit for some of that, we have issues there to be sure and it's only his defense budget in the right direction and he revised the quad alliance but we should have hammered china for crushing hong kong's democracy like that. china should happen hammered also not only for deceiving us about covid but for spreading covid. at the previous president north this president has really taken china on for spreading covid worldwide, march the i think because president xi jinping felt his economy would suffer in western democracies in the u.s. to suffer. there's been a general lack of accountability for crushing hong kong's democracy and also for covid. paul: all right, we will see if the biden administration it's by this year. appreciate it. when we come back from next week's oral arguments on the biden administration mandates, gun rights and abortion, 2022 shaping up to be a year on the supreme court. that's next. ♪♪ supreme court to hear oral argument next week on the biden administration vaccine mandates for private employers in certain healthcare workers. friday's special session have another contentious issue to court dockets with the justices poised to rule on abortion, gun rights and religious liberty in 2022 and what's shaping up to be a big year for the high court. we are back with dan henninger, mary o'grady and kyle peterson. kyle, a huge here for the court, let's start with a vaccine mandate case, a big issue of executive power, how much power it has especially relying on its own reading of regulation, writing in regulation with no explicit authority from congress, how do you think that will go? >> i think this court will be highly skeptical of the employer mandate on businesses with more than 100 workers and the question really is, did congress give the power to mandate vaccines for testing? i think the answer is probably no and part of it is that covid is not specifically workplace, it's not like a toxin or machine that could hurt you, it's floating around everywhere, outside as if they, flu vaccines mandate and particularly another thing, the current mess with testing going on, the alternative to vaccination in the mandate is being tested once a week but can osha require you if you are totally asymptomatic to spend hours in a testing line, the testing fiasco we have in some places? i think the answer will be no. paul: i agree, fast probably in my mind, justice roberts and your poor such to let it rip, i don't know if that is the case. [laughter] dan, another issue, gun rights, new york gun law restricting handgun law is going to be hurt, tell us about that. >> that case, new york reichel rifle and fist, case has been brought over new york state permitting licensing laws from acute can buy a gun and own it new york or new york city, very restrictive permitting most there and i think the argument there was interesting between the conservatives and liberals on the court. what that "issue is" permitting. the question is whether you can own a gun or as second amendment puts it, bear arms. justice kagan brought up the issue of whether that would mean if they allow that to carry against what they call sensitive places, on campuses or in courthouses, arenas. justice kavanaugh had an interesting answer, he said i don't know we have to the question of sensitive places, what's at issue here is the right to bear arms, you own a gun. if the court narrows it down to simply bearing arms which i think is what second amendment proponents want rather than carry them in the courthouse and campuses and such and we could see a real expansion this year of second amendment rights. paul: all right, of course the politically most sensitive case is abortion-rights, the case out of mississippi that bans abortion, most abortions after 15 weeks takes aim directly at roe v. wade and casey planned parenthood, how do you think the court will approach that after you heard the oral argument? >> i have a strong feeling they may overturn roe v. wade and the reason is, i think what americans should understand here is the argument against roe v. wade is not about abortion but whether it was rightly decided. his in the constitution, there are right to an abortion? if it was wrongly decided which i think may be the outcome of this court, that means the states are the ones to decide about abortion loss so if roe v. wade is overturned, it will go back to the state and in many states it will remain legal, guidelines about how far along a pregnancy can be before it's terminated but i think the idea of putting with the state as opposed to the federal government, the court is deciding, is there a right to abortion in the constitution? i think there is a strong possibility they will decide that right does not exist. paul: kyle, i would have been in the camp before the oral arguments justice roberts and kavanaugh find a middle ground, mississippi law is legal but we don't have to reach, we don't have to overturn roe and casey but after hearing the oral argument, it seems like maybe five votes are going all the way. do you agree with mary? >> i do. two things out show, chief justice john roberts, he asked both sides if they want to uphold 15 week span but don't overturn will be waived, is are placed in the middle? the left said no and the guy on the right side no and he was looking for something they weren't giving him. amy coney barrett seems skeptical of keeping roe and justice kavanaugh said several times the constitution is neutral on abortion and if he is the swing vote, that is encouraging for people who want to see it overturned. paul: the oral argument is never perfect indication how the decision will grow but is sometimes a good indication so we have to take one for break. panels predictions for 2022 next. ♪♪ time now for our panels predictions for 2022, kyle, start us off. >> i predict joe biden, president biden will get his nominees to the supreme court to replace replace stephen breyer, democrats have been using bryant retire and he pushed back her mat but is a naïve turning 84-year-old this morning, the winner is short because democrats, republicans could take the senate in november so i think he will retire and president biden will be ready to go with his nominee. paul: mary. >> i'm going to predict new york city mayor eric adams, it makes me happy to say mayor eric adams, he's going to pull new york city out of this slump by being serious about crime once again and welcoming entrepreneurs to new york city, it's going to be hard because andrew cuomo raised taxes on entrepreneurs but i think eric adams is arctic sending signals we will have a new new york in 2022. paul: mary, thanks. dan. >> i predict significant political tension inside china over xi jinping's policies. next october, they will have the communist party and seek to become chairman of the party, holding the chairman's position but there are signs there's pressure building against policies both personal consolidation of power and external aggression and i think we will see china boiling over internally next year. paul: my production is that this will finally be the year when the trust busters inside the biden administration go after big tech with one or more cases against google, apple, amazon and/or facebook. cases will get tied up in court and ultimately probably won't go anywhere but the biden administration get tough on big tech but the big winners as usual in these cases will be the lawyers. that's it for this week's show, thanks to my panel and to all of you for watching. i am paul gigot, happy new year. we hope to see you here next week. ♪♪ >> fox news alert as we monitor three stories this newsday, the death of betty white, she defied stereotypes and became pop-culture. i am william. >> great to have another hour with you, eric and arthel are off today. we are following two other big stories with this hour, president biden starting the new year facing numerous challenges at home and abroad, soaring cover cases and