Charles payne. This is making money. Breaking right now the market has moved on to animal spirits. You are remember animal spirits. Here is the question, which animal has the greatest chance of longterm survival . Were talking about highrisk versus low risk approaches to life and investing. Meanwhile nvidia getting a major boost ahead of wednesdays earning. After three more Brokerage Firms raised their target. I have to be honest i never seen a stock this beloved ahead of earnings. What can go wrong . We had two guests who recommended this stock at much lower levels. They will share their thoughts. Is it time for small caps to be gig . Gary k. Where the action is right now. Copper and silver, and gold how long will they shine . Tracy shuchart is spot on as usual. Well find out if she is still riding a the wave on these rallies. My take on the greatest sin, high Interest Rates or high borrowing . All that and more on making money. Charles so, we always talk about an pool spirits when the market is at alltime highs well think are different kinds of animal spirits. A couple years ago, research, herbivores make tasty meals for lions, they have a remarkable survivability. Carnivores have long lifespan. The market is driven by these unusual animal spirits. Were talking gambling spirits are back. A lot of speculation. A lot of time that means shortlived moves. The upside has been very powerful. Enough to get a giant wall street bear on board. Mike wilson, welcome to the party, my friend. He sees the s p 500 going do 5400. Although that is not much higher than where we are right now. It is higher than his prior target. 20 in fact higher than his prior target. Parade of fed speakers continues folks. Im sorry i cant stop them. Continues message high for longer. The fed is beginning to soft sell the message higher forever, at least for a long time. I will bring in b. Riley Wealth Management chief Market Strategist art hogan. Art, i find it interesting after an avalanche of harmful Economic Data, right, look im showing on the screen right now the economic surprise chart. On the righthand side is a cliff, falling off the cliff are economic date f all of them have missed. All of sudden that makes wall street bullish. Which camp are you in . Im in the bullish camp and i will tell you why. I think when you weed it out everything weve seen so far in 2024 in terms of Economic Data the biggest surprises have come arguably in earnings, right . So what really matters to us at the end of the day are earnings better than expected, and certainly they were in the First Quarter, hooking for 3 1 2 on consensus. Came in about 5. 4 . So clearly a better picture. More importantly guidance went up at the same time. You look at guidance for the rest of this year and for the next 12 months and they have gone up about 3 . When you look at that, sort of weed through all the mixed messages from the Economic Data stream the good news earnings continue to grow. They continue to grow because of gdp, atlanta fed has it pegged at 3. 2 in second quarter. Consumer continues to spend and earnings that continue to grow. Charles my whole beef with the earnings game, i will call it a game, is that one year ahead of time the earnings are high, right . Lets call it 200. And as time goes on these earnings drift down to 170, maybe a week before they go to 180. Then they come in at 190. Then they crush the estimates and the market is off. Listen the game works this way. In the beginning when theyre at 200 the market goes up to your point look how high earnings estimates are. When they beat the lowered numbers they go up again because they beat the street although this time around it hasnt really worked, right . We see beats go up very small and misses get hammered pretty hard. Feels like maybe Something Else is nagging this market even though were at alltime highs, art . You bring up a real by good point. The only thing i would rebut with charles, twofold. A, earnings estimates for the First Quarter went up four the First Quarter they usually come down. They went up for the First Quarter they handily beat. The second thing is more important, the reaction function. Clearly at alltime highs. Stocks are priced to modicum of perfection. We saw some of the misses like meta. Talk about how much they spent but not how much theyre making on artificial intelligence. Had massive reaction to the downside. I would agree with you the reaction function is much more negative for misses than it is positive for the companies that beat. Charles art, on the other side of this of course last year we saw multiple expansion. Of course the year before that was the exact opposite. Is it, it doesnt still feel like its one of these markets where you can throw a dart. It still feels stock specific. You have to go in there knowing specifically what you want to own and what you want to risk. Yeah i think that is very much true this year but the good news is, we talk about multiple expansion at the end of march before we had the april drawdown if you looked at the almost 5300 on the s p, about 6 or 7 of that was coming from multiple expansion, only 3 from earnings. After the firstquarter Earnings Report weve seen thats balanced out now. Were up 12 on the s p 500 yeartodate. That is half and half. 6 from multiple expansion, 6 from earnings growth. I think that is much more intuitive place to be but to your point Stock Election and sector selection has been very important. Were starting to see that broaden out. Like on our barbell we like energy that outperformed all other sectors in terms of Earnings Reports in the First Quarter. Health care has a lot of catchup to do. We think small caps certainly have a place in your portfolio this year. Charles to all areas that you can argue certainly have not, there was a point where energy was running away with it all. All of sudden im not sure why it stumbled. I had some Energy Stocks that were up 20 . Now theyre up 2 . Those, are those longer term kind of ideas for you, energy, health care, not just for the next move higher but for a longer term buy and hold . Yeah, certainly is. I think especially with energy. If you look at the supply and demand dynamics for the first time in the cycle were really close to being in balance, opec plus keeping their quotas on, u. S. Continues to produce more than anybody, Global Demand will come back gradually. That is the story for second half of the year Global Demand comes back, china off its lows. There is no challenge in multiple for energy, fully integrated e p names, most of them throw off nice dividend. I think it is a very healthy longterm play. Charles i agree 1000 percent. Honestly this looks like the most undervalued sector with the best risk reward out there, then you get a dividend on top. Art, thank you very much. I appreciate it. Thank you. Charles hey, folks, wall street economists and financial mediath reluctant, very reluctant for a long time to admit anything wrong with the American Consumer yet peel back the aggregate number. There is mountain of evidence there is issues out there. I want to bring in evans may Wealth Management partner, elizabeth evans. Elizabeth this is a different tell right . There are two consumer groups out there we know. I think 60 are tapped out on their credit cards. The rest have cash and they are spending that money. So what are your thoughts on this sort of bifurcation what it means for the economy . I think it is the story of the highend consumer lower vest the lowend consumer. We have heard that dichotomy from the biggest and best ceos around the world. You heard from mcdonalds, 3m, cocacola all noting a crack in the consumer with mcdonalds missing eps, noting that the consumer is becoming more discriminating and rolling out this five dollar value meal. You heard from cocacola saying that the lower end consumer is moving more towards value options. Yet at the same time youre hearing from the biggest banks that there is, jpmorgan, saying that spending is reaccelerating so much that they havent seen that since 2022. American express, 8 yearoveryear growth in spending. So, i think the bottom line, charles, is that the higher end consumer they account for more than half of overall spending and theyre doing okay. Charles right. Right. In the meantime everyone else can get a happy meal with a roll of scotch tape in it, right . Where does all this leave the Federal Reserve . Listen, they understand what is going own. Sometimes they borrow the wall street jargon but when you listen to them individually in the speeches they give, it seems to me they know a lot although theyre reluctant to sound the alarm out of triggering more panic . I think what we saw last week trot various data points that came in that the economy is moderating. So we saw core cpi, core core resales come in a little softer than consensus expectations. You saw the fed come out two or three times saying hey well not cutrates anytime soon and that first rate cut continue toes be pushed back later in the year. We continue to be in a higher for longer environment. The market continues to digest that. Charles right. I think you want to own Large Companies over Small Companies in that environment. Charles right. By the way i like what you said. I agree, what bostick said this morning i think well you al be accustomed or ready for this higher for longer thing and at t some point no one will talk about it. I want to talk about recent ideas you had for the audience because you had some grand slams. Nvidia up 72 . Netflix 46 , you Still Holding all of those . We are. Those are core components of our client portfolios. Charles schlumberger is one thats down, it is down 11 . I just had this information with art. All the Energy Stocks exploded higher, they have come back down, are you holding that one . We actually sold schlumberger in february. You remember, charles, in february that was right after the saudis came out directed saudi aramco to hold production at 12 Million Barrels per day. Previous guidance was 13 Million Barrels. So with, if you look at schlumberger, 80 of their revenues are upstream Capital Expenditures and they have about 30 exposure to the middle east and asia. So as a result of that we sold slb and we actually took those proceeds and bought taiwan semi. Taiwan semi is up 20 whereas slb is up a little less than 2 over that same period of time. Charles right. I got 30 seconds to go, i share with the audience you like american express, microsoft and amazon. These are buy and holds for you right now . They are. Charles great work, elizabeth. Thank you very much. Talk to you again soon. Thank you, charles. Charles all right, folks, s p 500 has been on a record pace. We set a number of record finishes this year. Rob luna says he sees more upside. In fact significant upside. He is here with the names you need to be a part of to ride that wave. Well be right back. [ applause ] the day you get your clearchoice dental implants changes your struggle with missing teeth forever. It changes how you eat, how you feel, and how you enjoy life. It changes your smile and how others smile at you. Clearchoice Network Doctors have changed over 100,000 lives with dental implants, and they can change yours, too. Because a clearchoice day changes every day. Schedule a free consultation. A slow network is no network for business. Thats why more choose comcast business. And now were introducing ultimate speed for business, our fastest plans yet. Were up to 12 times faster than verizon, at t, and tmobile. And existing customers could even get up to triple the speeds at no additional cost. From the company with 99. 9 Network Reliability and advanced cyber security, its ultimate speed for ultimate business. And its all from comcast business. Charles so updated Gallup Survey on u. S. Stock ownership says the number moved higher. Were near the alltime record, but heres the thing, only 22 of americans think equities are the best longterm investment, barely edging out gold and significantly below real estate. Someone who knows a thing other two about both, rob luna Wealth Academy founder rob luna. What do you tell investors . They come to you, im sure this is the first thing i have a bunch of money, i want to be rich, which is the best longterm investment, real estate or stock market . I think if you look at the numbers, the stock market absolutely is the place to build wealth for more investors but when you think about it, theyre not familiar with. I like to see increased ownership across the globe of stocks. Quite honestly for most people they will not afford real estate starting out. Everyone can put 50, 60 bucks in the stock market. Look 10, 15 years later you build wealth. This is one of the best places for the average investor to park their money. Charles now this is in your wheelhouse of course but just how much should individual investors take control, like you know, i know you help, you teach, you train people to be Great Investors and traders. Yeah. Charles just how much. I listen, i got a 401 k , almost everyone tells me that is not enough, they want more control over what theyre invested in. Look no one cares more about your money than you do, charles. I advocate, even if you use a financial professional you should be educated because we all know Financial Professionals are not created equal. I think you need to read, you need to learn about the stock market, about real estate investing. You cant delegate that to somebody else to take care of your own future. Charles here is the problem when you read about the market. Depends what book you read. The modern market. You see trades get crowded quickly and expensive. I dont care how conservative the sector is to stock. Everyone loves it. Everyone piles in. It goes straight to the moon. Every wall street analyst chases it. It does a supernova thing, blows up, moves onto the next thing. It is tough toe hopscotch that area, so, how do folks get around that and still maintain the focus on longterm appreciation . Yeah. I mean its a great question, charles. Like you said the algorithms really made this game a lot differently. If they look for a good book. I put one out there, you put one out there, those are two i shamelessly recommend. For most investors you have a 401 k , you have to invest this, that is free money when you get employee match. The s p 500, if you dont do anything else has been a very, very good place to park your money. I advocate doing more than that look at some names you own but take a longer term view. One of the things investors do to really reduce risk, is lengthen time horizon. That is one thing they have to do. Charles taylor riggs says time in the market, not timing the market. I love the word you use, oprah tiff, you own these companies, as shareholder you are part owner. Less than a minute to go, couple ideas you like. Tractor supply and lyft. Talk to us about those for us. Tractor supply, demographic change people move into the rural areas especially with the cost of housing will continue. This company just hit, pulled back, now a new 52week high today. They continue to understand their customer. That is what weve been talking about, look at walmart and some others who are not executing they open 90 new stores a year. If you play the pet space, they own pet sense. It is a great longterm play, tractor supply. Charles it is in one heck of a wellrun company. Rob, thanks a lot, my friend. Lets talk again soon. Thanks, charles. Thank you. Folks, silver and copper are en fuego. I think i said that right. Someone told us this would happen. That someone happens to be back. Tracy shuchart whether you should hop on this or someone else your sleeve. Clems not a morning person. Im tasting it or a night person. Or a. People person. But he is an i can solve this in 4 different ways person. And that person. Is impossible to replace. You need clem. Clem needs benefits. Work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan thats right for him. Im short but im. Im confident. You know . Let our expertise round out yours. 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