Continue to stumble along here. Theres a sort of sense, you heard the 1 00 show, that this cockiness is fading just a little bit. Buyers are waiting for a bigger dip, so you have got that no mans land. But with wareful careful what you wish for. Remember, today is the eyes of march ides of march. Somehow the ides of march and the god father seem appropriate particularly when our u. S. Debt eventually could derail the nation. They need an offer they cant refuse. Meanwhile, there are probably other potential black swans, and Larry Mcdonald knows a thing or two about that. Hes here to tell us what we should be watching for. And shocking new Real Estate Development broker commissions are about to get slashed, or should i say whacked, in theme with todays show . What does this mean for the if Housing Market and the economy . Major ripple, folks. Plus, record amounts of cash continue to pour into bitcoin, natalie burnell, she predicted all of this. All of that and so much more on making money. Charles a week away from the vernal equinox, spring begins. Right now theres a sense that maybe the overarching upward market bias is beginning to tilt the other way. Of course, nobodys running for the hills, but the veneer of invincibility isnt what it was the a week ago. Were already seeing weakness in the socalled magnificent seven names. A lot of them are just underperforming mightily. Theres also a some rotation happening which, by the way, is a good thing or should be, but this leg of the rally that began in late are october late october of 2023 on hopes of six or seven rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, you know, had to shift gears and became different, right . It became clear that that wasnt going to happen, so the rationale shifted to, you know what . Lets keep the rally going because the economy is getting strong, the Strong Economy will give us strong corporate earnings. Well, you know with, its better that the market in my mind climb on the Earnings Growth story, right, than the fed pumping free money into the system. In the last couple of years in particular, we saw last year, rather, and then this year we saw most of the growth in this market has been primary ally there from multiple growth, right . So its imperative that we start to get something happening on the bottom line. Now, heres the bad news probably on that front, earnings revisions are now beginning to turn lower. And the Economic Data continues to miss the mark. So i want to bring in rob luna from luna if Wealth Academy founder. Rob, know youre in the buy the dips camp. Heres the thing, a lot of dips come on and they say buy the dips, which is fine, but ive seen guests who have done that the whole year, and the implication is our audience cant buy every dip. So two things. How big does the dip have to be before you actually pull the trigger . Yeah, its a great question, charles. And i would say in terms of buying the dip, its these big tech names that are leading that weve talked about for a long time being the future growth names that you want to be in. I think today youre probably going to hook for a 1015 decline. 23 is normal movements. If youre a longterm investor, you want to dollar cost average on those 1015 declines. Charles what about a name like tesla . A huge, significant pullback. We know the ev story has sort of deteriorated, but they always a had this sort of special place because,lets face it, if you wanted an ev for the most part, youve been buying a tesla. Yeah, no, i agree. I think the problem9 and the challenge with tesla, we sold our position quite a while ago, is like you said is, i think the narrative really has changed and the future for ev, i dont think, is going to be nearly as bright especially if you get a change in administration which i think will happen this year. For me, tesla at a current valuations really doesnt make a lot of sense, you know . Im probably in the minority say hag, but im not really interested in the future of tesla over the next year. Charles lets talk about the future everyones interested in, and thats artificial as well as. Were starting to get a weird backlash, right . If adobe is getting smoked for the most part because it doesnt have an a. I. Strategy, in fact, its business may be hurt by a. I. Jbl, they reported last night, that stocks getting smoked. They mentioned a. I. More than two dozen times on the call. So it just feels like welcome no longer throw that a. I. Dart, so how are you playing that space . Yeah. One of the stocks im looking at i talked about a before, charles, ui path. This is a company that has an executive from sap, google, really broadeninged the platform of what that company can do. The reason im talking about it now, today, is because they just reported earnings yesterday. That stock was actually up aftera hours about 8, but because of that the inflation data, the stock wound up being down, so you got about a 15 pullback with. The stock the reported surprise profitability. Thats a name i really like right here. I think youre getting a good valuation and the private markets, charles, theyre raising capital at 35 billion. Its down around, you know, just a herd of that right now. So i think a third of that a right now. So i think its a Good Opportunity for the for the retail investor. Charles youre also a saying its time to start paring some of these big highbeta names, steady eddies. I know one you like is kin med . Yeah, theres a big article that just came out the other day talking about how the shortage of plumbers in the United States is going to cost the economy about 35 billion. If you look at the the biggest publiclytraded company, theyve9 got rotorooter which is about half of their business, some chemical some medical business in there. I do think whats going on right now, theyve talked about it before, theres a possibility they spin that company off. If that happens, that stocks going to skyrocket. Charles unfortunately, you can never go wrong with rotorooter or. [laughter] i know you also like altria. Whats your concern . Do you have any concern here . Again, when the market has this much upward bias, when everyone is all in, theres not a lot of bears out there, theyve been defeated, i start to get a little antsy. Yeah, i think so, charles. In the short run what moves the markets is supply and demand, fear and greed. And i think whats happened with this pullback is youve got a lot of people that have made a lot of money in a short period of time, is so now with the fear and greed, thats going to be based off of news flow. We saw that yesterday, were going to see it next week with the fed. So i think if the fed if is going to come out hawkish, that will send this market back probably around 1012 if theres a difference in that, i think the market can go up higher. Right now, unfortunately, its not about valuations, its going to be about muse flow, so were going to have to Pay Attention to what the feds saying. If that turns south, the markets probably going to go lore. Charles thanks a lot, my man. Talk to you soon. Although the market has been wobbly of late, cash keep pouring in, the most since march of 20211. The question is, is it a good sign or a contrarian signal . I want to bring in nicholas, first and foremost, your research is fantastic. I really appreciate. Lets are talk about this, what we are, because where we are, because youve been around for a while. When the market gets in that groove where it feels like it cant do go down, it on the wants to go up, do you get a little more anxious about things . For right now im not all that anxious because were in a midcycle market and midcycle economy. Its not a recession which is early cycle, not heading into a recession, its this broad middle. The market tends to rally for years on end with very low volatility, is so for right now i think were okay. Charles last summer the market was starting to fall apart a little bit, it was really stumbling into late october. Then thicks change9, with concern things changed. We got the first part of this, the leg of this rally was all paced on 67 rate cuts. It became apatient that wasnt going to happen apparent, but the rally baton was passed to Strong Economy, strong earnings. What if we dont get either one . What if inflation stays in place . I mean, look at the empire fed number today, an unmitigated disaster. Look at a the last couple of inflation reads, ppi, cpi. All of these data points suggest inflation if is higher, wont go away and is actually impacting the economy. So wheres the em we discuss for the market to keep going up impetus . Its important to put that rally from february to october in context. It was the strongest rally by order of magnitude except for in 2018 and during the pandemic when we came off the bottom. Now were having to reset expectations. Youre right, were not going to get 67 rate cuts, well be lucky to get the 3 the fed has promised, and if were coming down to very slow are Earnings Growth with. This is not a bad recipe, but its not excitement that generates the kind of returns we got if from october to february. I think were in for a slowchurning, higher market with some modest pullbacks, 5 at the most, but generally still a rally mode. Charles you know, when a fair amount of guests have suggested particularly in lean years that look outside of recent years look outside of america, look outside the u. S. The only hinge that bothers me is the implication is always like were the same economy with the same markets, ours just happen to be much higher than our counterparts and so its the their turn to rally higher. What do you say to folks who say, hey, were looking for opportunities and someone said looked at emerging markets, this country, that country. Do you say u. S. Centric or broaden out . We tell our clients stay as u. S. Sent is rick as you possibly can because, sure, the economies grow faster, but not one emerging market has beat the s p over the last 10 years. Not one. And emerging markets overall, you have 3 a year for the last 10 years. They dont make the kind of companies charles thats the bottom line. Thats the bottom line. Charles its so weird to me that that somehow theyre due because theyve underperformed t been a decade and counting because weve been that much better. Off the bottom, it works because they get so depressedded and then the relief comes out. One or two years out of ten you can make some money. The other eight years, a disaster. Charles so before we wrap it up then, is there something bothering you at all . Is there something lurking out there that we should be wary of . Is the there portfolio composition, you know, of course, are people too a. I. Heavy . If whats bother bothering you right now that is lushing in the back of your mind . Lurking in the back of your mind . The real die name if i can in this market has been to see Larger Companies outperform smaller companies. We see it in the s p, and a healthieral ally would show some of to middletier companies more love and and get those stocks working. Right now were still a little too riskaverse. Understand write so. I want to see that rally extend down the cap chain. Charles cool. I appreciate you taking time out. Have a good weekend, nick. All right, folks, my next guest says the fed has no other option other than to become hawk you should. 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Switch to comcast business mobile and save big with up to 500 off an eligible samsung device with a qualifying tradein. Dont wait call, click or visit an xfinity store. Charles my next guest wants to help investors understand the risk within the bond complex, right . We always have folks who come on and talk about bonds all the time. Theres its not just one bond, folks, theres a lot of things out there. But its an opportunity for you not only to learning but maybe make some money. I want to bring in Portfolio Manager nancy davis. Nancy, lets begin with that because its great we were talking about, you know, the laddering bonds and bond risks and how, you know, again, a 01year bond 10year bond is not the same as, say, a note or something else. I think its important because we have seen a lot of folks looking for yield outside of equities. Money markets at 6 trillion, but people are looking for other alternatives. Absolutely, charles. Its a really tricky time out the will because anytime you have a bond, you have exposure to Interest Rates. And so whats happening now is if you look at the 10year, its 4. 30 whereas the policy rate is still 5. 25. So the market has really priced in that bond rates are going to be cut. And inflation data, so far we had six cuts when we started the year, now were down to three cuts, but i think a lot of people could be in for a rude awakening. In 202230year treasury ross more in price terms than the nasdaq. Charles really . Yeah. Crazy e right. Charles i know theres been a lot of discussion about the old 6040 portfolio, particularly the bond parking lot of it. Part of it. A lot of folks have come on, go long tlt, adg which are, you know, and you know, ive a been concerned because these supposed to be or at least the theyve been considered just safest of safe havens. But to your point, theyve been big money losers from time to time. Yeah. All investing is always risk, and i think the big problem is do 10year, some models say its riskfree, but its absolutely not. If you look at the pricing right now, youre basically giving the u. S. Treasury money and getting paid less to take more risk. Its really crazy. People talk about the inverted yield curve all the time. The yield curve is massively inverted. Its been inverted for a longer period of time at lower levels than ever in our lifetime, so you look at a 1month tbill and you can get paid 5. 30, youre basically saying, here, janet yellen, take my money for longer and pay me less to take more risk. [laughter] charles i mean, listen, i remember when there was a negative yield, right . Particularly with the european bonds. I always said why would i give, you know, people someone money and then pay them to hold on to it for me . Maybe i understand where Pension Funds and those folks have to do especially, but our audience doesnt is to do that. Within that realm should people be looking at maybe having some notes in their portfolio or shorter duration exposure here . If. Well, i think a lot of people have moved into short duration. Charles right. Its been prettyup popular. Its been kind of pretty popular. I think the issue is things like the ag index or tlt, theres no inflationprotected bonds in those indices, and i do think everything right now everybody right now is expecting the fed to start their cutting cycle. There are debates about whether its two this year or three and is it going to be june. Everybody seems to take march off the table, but i think owning inflationprotected bonds is pretty attractive right now because nobodys worried that its going to be a problem charles and theyve gotten pretty cheap. Super or cheap. Real yields are near 10year highs. So inflation if has been super for sale, and i think its just one of those things that everybody should own it. But a lot of people look at what happened in the 70s and 80s, and i like to shake people and say the inflation markets are new. The treasury only started the inflationprotected bond market in 1997, so they didnt exist in the 70s and 80s. A lot of people look at a gold, commodities, real estate or certain parts of the equity market. So i think its ad good time for investors to be looking at their bond exproud your and having more diversification. Charles i love that. I really, really do. And, again, you know, just the sort of supreme confidence9 that the f