This is making money. Breaking right now, stocks continue to succumb to the summer doldrums. At one point should you start to worry . Pull up a seat. Weve got guidance for you. In fact some of the best in the business. Dan niles is on deck. Cameron dawson is on deck. You will get a bonus today. You will learn what a duck market is. Danielle dimartino booth is in studio where the fed goes from here. President biden celebrating the First Anniversary of the inflation reduction act. Theyre shifting to pravda mode to sell the product. We have homeless crisis and death crisis. It is awful. Former hud secretary ben carson is here at 2 50. Millenials have legitimate beefs but they may not like my answers when nothing is cheap anymore. All that and more on making money. Charles all right, so the market dealing with summer doldrums. Investors kind of hoping though, this recent weakness is just a seasonal thing. What is interesting is that professional investors, right, here in the yellow, are starting to get bullish, right . Theyre trying to catch up with the dumb money who rode out this rally big time from the very beginning. Of course they have a lot more at stake now, these pros, because they missed the first half of this year in the rally, only just begun to increase equity exposure. What is compelling here, the names that led this market. Some call them faang, a whole lot of names, the market darlings, right . At a double top, this is a chate grater mere, they are really bearish. Theyre starting to struggle a little bit. You wonder how much of a pullback they will really have. The thing is for retail ininvestors, theyre not moving into the defensive sectors. This is allocation of socalled defensive stocks it has never been lower. It is pretty clear. Ride or die with the names that are changing the world, fourth industrial revolution. Forget about wall street valuation metrics, nobody cares anymore. When retail hears higher for longer, theyre not thinking fed policy, thinking about not missing out opportunity after lifetime. With that bring in santori fund founder portfolio manager, dan niles. Dan, start with the broad market. Even though history suggests this market should rally, we should have a strong first half, have a strong second half, are you still looking for a 10 correction . Yes. And its very simple the reason why which is ultimately stock prices are determined by earnings and not in the short term but in the long term. And if you think about the back half of the year youve got about 40 million Student Loans that are going to start getting repaid starting in october. That coincides obviously with the biggest retail quarter of the year, the Fourth Quarter, the tail end of back to school. So you have already seen a lot of big Cap Companies cut the forward numbers. Apple cut for the Second Quarter in a row. Nobody cared after the march quarter when they cut june but they cared after they reported the june quarter, cut september. Microsoft lowered in their intelligent Cloud Businesses supposed to be benefiting from a. I. , right . Their 10 billiondollar plus investment in openai which does chatgpt. Tesla, margins were an issue there. Youre starting to see even in the magnificent seven as they call them, things starting to bifurcate depending on if you put up great numbers like google, amazon, nvidia, meta, or your numbers were not as good like microsoft. Et cetera. Charles you like certain highflyers. You call them, they do qualify as garp, growth at a reasonable price, including nvidia. We talked about that a lot last couple times you were on the show i want to ask you more about, youre more short than long right now, some of the things youre suggesting to investors to avoid. Got a board high growth, hardware, consulting, talk about avoiding these particular areas. Well i think the big thing investors are getting confused on hear a. I. , they hear Companies Say a. I. 50 times, and they assume every company is going to benefit, even if you take nvidia, the posterchild for a. I. , if you look at their foundry, tsmc for example, tsmc ended up cutting their numbers while saying a. I. Will help revenues grow in rai business by over 50 a year the next several years. Microsoft, obviously posterchild in software for a. I. , they have 10 billion invested in openai which produced chatgpt, they guided the intelligent Cloud Business below consensus, not by much but by a little in the falling quarter. Obviously recently super micro has 350 of their revenues riding a. I. Servers, they ended up cutting the September Quarter relative to consensus was after beating the june quarter. So youre really going to have to start picking stocks now, beginning of the year didnt matter what you bought, you could buy anything. They were all going up. Charles right. Speaking which youre focusing jackson hole which has been monumental the last couple years, right . Major news came out of there that really set the direction of this market. Later on this month the theme will be structural shifts in the global economy. You point this out in your note. There are three major shifts you focus on. I want to talk about them. China in the news right now. What are the implications because china is so weak . Well i think from a, well if you think about it from a demand perspective china buys the most smartphones in the world. They buy the most cars in the world. They buy the most pcs in the world. Theyre a massive consumer as they add more people to the middle class every year. And so if they get weak and theyre weak going especially into you know the back half of the year when all of these companies are expecting a big ramup in sales that will be a problem for a lot of u. S. Tech companies that sell consumer goods into china. I was talking about china more from a structural standpoint used to be for the last 30 years you offshore to china because they have big population growth, they have the population shrink for the first time in 60 years and thats, drives inflation. It isnt deflationary like it was before. Charles by the way that also gets to your onshoring concern which not just china but i think political and other things. After covid i think a lot of companies were concerned about what would happen if we went through another crisis like that unable or so overbearing, you know, overwhelmingly depending on one country. Before i let you go, dan, esg part of that structural shift, how does that play . Remember for the last several decades cheap energy fueled the growth in the world economies and esg is great but the problem is esg is a lot more expensive when youre switching off of dirty coal or oil, et cetera and that just makes things a lot more expensive to produce. A chip plant in arizona is twice as expensive to produce chips as a plant sitting in taiwan and so all of these things which have helped you in the past drive down deflation now theyre structurally higher, i dont know what the fed will touch on but it wouldnt surprise me if they hit one of the three things i brought up. Charles or all three, although, right now the political pendulum has swung where you have a democratic president following up a republican president with respect to that sort of some would call protectionism. I dont know how they can reverse that, at least with respect to politics right now. Great stuff, dan. Youve been spot on. Always appreciate you sharing your thoughts with us. Thanks a lot. Thanks, charles. Folks, coming up what do the dodo bird and affordability have in common. Tweet me cvpayne. Here is a hint. I wont give you a hint. I will talk about later in my takeaway. I bring in cameron diaz. You say the second half of the year will be a duck market. A duck market. Want you to explain. I will help out the audience. I do a little bit of artwork. Smooth on the surface but a lot of action underneath . It is picasso duck theme that shows the turn that could happen in this market. A duck looks like it is smooth but a lot of action as it moves its feet. There could be a lot of rotation in the market. You could see the tech stocks to continue to take a breather. They got really expensive. They are being hit by valuation compression because of higher Interest Rates. What were seeing better perform an out of things like cyclical value. Right. Look at growth, gdp now at 5. 8 today. Charles can the cyclical value and those names carry though the broad market . In other words, what i liked about recently as you, i dont mind, growth sectors, three major growth sectors in the s p are flat, even a little down. Weve seen days when they have been in the broad market is up, but can they carry the entire market . Likely not enough to push us into new highs. Meaning not enough to give us the escape velocity but enough to keep us from going into a deeper selloff, deeper downturn. Which means right now were not seeing signs of that indiscriminate selling, throw the baby out with the bath water, buy just defensives. It seems to people saying hey, valuations got a little stretch. Lets hunt for some better valuations. Charles you wrote in your note about the 50day moving average. You wrote certain stocks applies to the nasdaq 100, s p 500, all the majors are grappling with the 50 day. I always worry about that often after you Start Talking 50 day, the 200day, those are major declines. Is it imperative that these 50day moving averages hold . I believe to watch below the 50day, if we cant get above that the next level is the august high from 2022. It is around 4328. That is critical to hold to say we wont go down to the 200day moving average that is the really important level. I love that. That was so specific. Historically bond yields and the nasdaq traded hand in hand. Weve got bond yields and we had this year they have come down. They have kind of, you know, they are up again. This is an inverse chart. Bond yields are going to a place they have never been but when bond yields were going up the stock market was going up too but now the market is starting to pull back a little bit. The question is if bond yields going up is it inevitable it brings the stock market down with it . That has been the relationship in the past. We have seen the complete breakdown of the normal relationship between bond yields, mostly real yields which reached a new yeartodate high and tech valuations. So the same real yield we were back in october, even a bit higher, but tech valuations are 50 higher. That is kind of gravity that will be applied to tech valuations if we continue to see yields move higher. Charles before i let you go with all of this being said, near term anxiety, a changing of guard, where do we hide out . Where are you looking to put a majority of your money right now . Are you asking me to say quality again because you know i will . Charles [laughter]. Please dont say quality. So quality would be the smoothness of the duck . That is the top part . Yeah. Charles okay. Those names that dont have stretched valuations. That is always the most important part about quality investing you cant have quality at any price. Valuation discipline remains very important but it is also those names that have more earnings stability in the event that we start to see a little stumble on earnings. Charles great stuff. Great seeing you, cameron. Appreciate it. Folks, coming up, target, their terrible earnings report, in fact worst in six years, bad guidance. Guess what . The stock is exploding. Kristen bentz will figure its out and handicap walmart numb numbers. Ryan detrick has been a uberbull. So when he started to get a little worried i get worried. He is next. Somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. She didnt know they were talking to her. I just could not hear. I was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. But nobody even sees them. Our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason weve been the brand leader for over 75 years. When i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. I could hear everything. Call 1800miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so glad we did this. Im so. Glad we did this. [kid plays drums] life is for living. Lets partner for all of it. Im so glad we did this. Edward jones thats why comcast business de is launching theal. Mobile made free event. With our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free. Its our best internet. Powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99. 9 reliability. Plus one line of free mobile for an entire year. Its the mobile made free eventhappening now. Get started for just 39 a month. Plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. Comcast business, powering possibilities. Charles folks to to say my next guest has a lot of influence and sway just might be an understatement. Recently janet yellen remarked she isnt looking for recession. Check this out at the time she made those remarks look what she was reading . Thats right, she was reading midyear Outlook Research from the carson group my next guest is the chief Market Strategist there. Lets bring in carson group chief Market Strategist, ryan detrick. My man, you didnt tell mee, congratulations is she right . Did she glean this from your work, no recession, toss it out . I wish she would have been listening to you eight months ago. Bull market, no recession. Theyre catching on, finally catching on. Charles funny you mention that, that goes for a whole lot of people out there, let me ask you though, how, one thing i noticed youve been tweeting about we should note be as concerned with some of these jarring debt numbers. Credit card debt a trillion. Auto 1. 58 trillion. Student loans, 1. 8 trillion, because you say at the same time net worth has gone up over that period of time 246 for instance, Credit Card Debt up 106 . Is that enough to make us feel comfortable because obviously there are certain income groups that are hurting here more than others . A lot of way i can take this, charles, i call it nominator blindness. Numerator, lots of credit card out there. There is lot of wealth out there. Credit scores are solid. Delinquencies, were not seeing massive spikes in delinquencies. Were aware were not perfect but as i have been saying a long time economy is strong. 5. 8 is what the atlanta fed looking for gdp in the third quarter. Might be a Little Pricey come back a bit. No depression. Just today, Industrial Production better than expected on heels of yesterdays retail sales. There is no recession coming, charles. Charles listen, talk about why you are anxious then because everything youre saying dovetails into what you were saying coming into the year but now youre starting to get a little bit concerned and i think it has something to do with seasonality. This is a chart you put up. Yeartodate is in green. This is historic. It followed history to a t. Were entering into this period. Tell us this period sideways make were more vulnerable in this market. Exactly. Charles, when i was on with you bullish, you see the tweets people were angry. I dont know why they were. Long term bears are sorry. Turning bullish. I dont feel as lonely now. Not the end of the world. The chart showing when you have the 10 gain first half of the year like we did this year obviously what happens next . Next couple months are historically pretty weak on average are kind of sideways and choppy. We had a little pullback. Maybe more is necessary. Not the end of the world as well. I look at calendar which is really right. We talked about seasonality in last three quarters with you. Maybe time for a break to frustrate those johnny come lately bulls. Charles to your point you shouldnt panic during the choppiness orbit of a correction because when it picks back up it is worth being long till. Amen. I think by the Fourth Quarter well see a typical strong Fourth Quarter you tend to see in preelection year especially like youve been strong. S p up five months in a row. Historically looking out after that, you tend to have really strong returns. I still think were bullish, maybe time for that seasonal weakness we want to try to remind investors here. Charles ryan, i know you let your work doing your talking for you. Maybe youre not superstitious. Not all the folks who thought you were wrong hopped on the bandwagon, does that make you a little uncomfortable . It does. That is one of reasons you could say, i liked when they thought i was crazy back in january came on with you we could hit alltime highs this year. People thought we were nuts. Were not that far away. It still could happen. My back hurts, charles, im carrying a lot of people jumping on. It makes me a little uncomfortable. Charles that comes with the territory being right. Just ask atlas, it is a lot of work. Thank you. U. S. Seeing a amazing mindboggling rise in homelessness, mindboggling spike in death rates. It is a national catastrophe. Dr. Ben carson here with solutions at 2 50. My next guest, rather, target they got slapped around pretty good. Management did swift actions, maybe they escape this. What is up with retail . Kristen bentz has the answers. Before we go to break, i want to share my snippet of fun with gutfeld. I had a message for our leaders. Whats happening in this country politicians in general are seducing people to doing this, particularly black kids. Its hard breaking, its scary but it just shows, another example along with the poor education and other things that they do not want black people to do well in this country and you have to wake up to see who really is on your side and who isnt. People like my mom said, hell no, you will not go loot, who you wanted on your side. Hell yeah. Amen. [applause] the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . I have type 2 diabetes, but i manage it well. Jardiance its a little pill with a big story to tell. I take oncedaily jardiance, at each days staaart. As time went on it was easy to seee. Im lowering my a1c. Jardiance works 24 7 in your body to flush out some sugar and for adults with type 2 diabetes and known heart disease, jardiance can lower the risk of cardiovascular death, too. Jardiance may cause serious side effects including ketoacidosis that may be fatal, dehydration, that can lead to sudden worsening of kidney function, and genital yeast or urinary tract infections. A rare, lifethreatening bacterial infection in the skin of the perineum could occur. Stop taking jardiance and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms of this infection, ketoacidosis, or an allergic r