Introducing the world of paint mixing. The Company Repays him by firing him. That employee joins us live today. All that and more on making money. Charles even though shares are slightly lower, my stock of the day is deere. Regular watchers of this show know i have talked about this company, i have great affection for it in the past and one of the reasons i love this company, it was born when a farmer saw a void and decided to fix it himself. That was 182 years ago. This morning, the stock reported earnings that was all about the american farmer, the Agricultural Equipment sales increased from last year, operating margins soared to 13. 9 from 9. 2 . Management credited a shift in sentiment, market access, government actions and prices, in addition to a mon centster government actions and prices, in addition to a mon centste be management gave strong guidance. If you are in the stock, hold it. I was also thrilled we did not allow our farmers to be destroyed by the Chinese Government in a trade battle that had to be fought. Deere is my stock of the day. Check out the soybean prices. Through the roof. The highest level since 2015. This points to something of a potential dilemma for investors that has been a november to remember. This might be the best november so far since 1928, for the s p. You might see stocks pull back, you may see a little gyration when news suggests they should go higher. Earnings are up, the stock is down. The question, is now the time for tyou to use all your investing tools because you want to make moves that include buying, selling and holding. Two guys will help us understand this more because they have to make these decisions every day. David nelson and nate fisher. David, i want to start with you. You are always invested so obviously, you have got to be thrilled right now because you endured a rough spring and anxious summer. Just for now, what do you see for the remainder of the year . Thanks, charles. No genius on my part. If you were invested at the bottom and you had to go along for the ride. With several vaccines out there, thats really the key, since we had the vaccines, the markets looking through the valley and obviously theres a lot of americans out there that could use a helping hand but now a lot of capital is coming back in that wants to get involved, money that hasnt been deployed, and even money that was deployed in large cap secular growth and stayathome trades, some of that is moving at well. I see as that money comes back into the market, the markets likely to drift higher, especially since this saeasonaly such a strong part of the year. Charles some would argue the santa claus rally began a couple weeks ago. A lot of longtime market pros missed this move. They really lament that, because listen, what they would say often is that stocks are only higher because there was no alternative. They call it tino on wall street. I personally found that to be bogus. I thought it was an excuse. Listen, bottom line is if you look, funds have been going out of stocks bigtime and into bonds, but now to your point, to davids point, looks like money is flowing into the stock market again, the market is making new alltime highs. In fact, this word from lpl that shows the year when new highs come, you see year after year these clusters, they seem to keep coming and there was a 15year period in the 1950s, 60s, a 21year period of new highs and new highs from the late 70s to 2000, now this period, eight years, it just started in 2012 and knowing new highs beget new highs, how much room could there be for more money pouring into this market . Like you mentioned, the fixed income world still controls a lot of the asset base that has been rotated into over the last call it five or seven months, so there is a fair amount of money still left on the sidelines that can rotate back into stocks. But what im really looking at is just pretty much the charts. Im respecting the price action you mentioned. The breadth is there, the momentum is there, the market broadened out. 92 of the s p 500 is above the 200 day moving average. Looks like the markets about to break out of the range of 3200 to 3600. So any time now it looks like the s p 500 can move up to 4,000. I dont know if thats in the next month, next three months, but seasonally strong december makes the trend your friend and stocks look to melt up higher as we approach 2021. Charles speaking of market breadth, yesterday in the new york stock exchange, 3 1 advancers to decliners, up volume 5 1 versus down volume. That is conviction. Let me circle back to my comments on deere at the top. I have been getting a lot of questions on what kind of tools or approaches people should use to determine buy, sell or hold. David, when the stock is at these levels and the news comes out, it pulls back a little bit, folks get a little anxious out there. What should they do . How should they determine what to do . I think earnings are also a report card on how good or bad the analysts were pegging the number. When a stock runs into the number like a deere, sometimes it can be a sell the news event even if its just the slightest blemish in the income statement. I would look through that, look at the fundamentals, look at what deere has to say. I thought they were spectacular numbers. I think its just a sell the news event right now. Money being deployed to other parts of the market. Charles yeah. I tend to agree with you. Nate, a lot of people do worry about that and end up selling something they loved the day before, then they end up regretting it not too shortly thereafter. Other than the chart, is there Something Else you look at people might want to consider . The chart looks great. Fundamentally, you have to figure out whats baked in the stock right now. The stock is sitting at alltime highs. It looks like investors more or less knew 2021 would be better than 2020. Lot of people can get on board with the story that the fleet age of tractors is old, the upgrade cycles coming, and most farmers want to increase their efficiency and use Higher Technology within those machines. Thats a nobrainer. But at 260 im not really looking to chase this one. The risk reward is not all that favorable, in my opinion. Charles right. Right. Yeah, im worried less about deere and more about how you deal with owning a stock that hits a new high, pulls back and you loved it the day before, people get stuck there. Thats a major issue for a lot of investors trying to do this on their own. Less than a minute to go. You talked about things being baked in. Right now the market is assuming more fiscal stimulus, more Federal Reserve accommodation and more good news on a vaccine front. Real quick, less than a minute, what are we missing here on terms of risk, david . Right out of the gate, its got to be rates. If rates start to edge higher and the yield curve starts to strengthen even further and you start to see a tenyear start to approach the dividend yield of the s p 500, that could be a trigger for people to pull capital out. Charles nate, the one risk youre looking at . The biggest thing i would say is the fiscal stimulus underwhelms and the vaccine takes longer to roll out, covid remains elevated and that ensues more lockdowns. Thats not good for the stock market. Charles great information. Thats what we are looking for. David, nate, thank you both very much. The market has been, well, under some pressure today. Not a whole lot considering things, some natural profit taking. There was disappointing news on home sales and consumer sentiment. Thats putting a little pressure. Right now, its all about the consumer, whether or not they will step up this Holiday Season and into 2021. The latest gallup poll is correct, the consumer will step up. The best november reading since 2017, the second best since 2007. For more, lets bring in kristen benz. Are americans ready to do heavy duty shopping or not . They are. Never underestimate the power of retail therapy. We have had this discussion. Charles you are absolutely right. But you know, a lot of folks say its counterintuitive, we are locked down, depressed, a lot of people are still out of work. You say no, ultimately this might be what helps cure some of that depression. Absolutely. We are in an amazon economy, if you are sad or depressed, you have stuff that can arrive at your door in two hours. I woke up to six kimonos today. It can happen. Charles dont forget my size, okay . I dont think i ever got one of those from you. Stick around. Youre on the good list. Not the naughty list. Charles all right. What are consumers shopping for . What are they buying . They are buying a lot of workout gear. They are buying pelotons and they are also buying things that are sentimental. I think a lot of folks want that connection because they cant be together for the holidays, if you are following all the latest cdc dogma out there. Pinterest has had a lot of success with people looking for very special personalized gifts. Thats where etsy comes into play here. Charles so funny, i was going to ask you about etsy. Its having a great session today. I wrote a piece two months ago saying it could be the new amazon. Now some people are saying they might even be better fits than amazon considering supply chain constraints because people are making the stuff right there. Their supply chain is anybody who wants to put something on the website. Its funny you say that. I was talk toiing to a girlfrien the furniture business and she was telling me she has an entire shipment she cant get in in vietnam because of the shortness of container ships. If she gets it here, she cant find drivers to deliver it. You are really on to something with etsy here. Absolutely. Charles talk about Retail Stocks. Some of those have been on fire and of course, we talked, i love the beatendown brick and mortar names. They have made huge moves, kohls, capri, even gap store which is down today. I took profits on half that i will give kanye some credit. I bought it at 12. 62 when they announced he was getting involved and sold half at 26. Magnificent run. But where are these opportunities now . Because i got to tell you, it feels like wall street is always late to the party when it comes to finding the opportunities in the retail space. The first time i ever met you, you turned me on to buckle. I had never heard of it. It was a gargantuan winner for a long time and maybe two years before i saw any wall street analyst mention it. Well, thank you so much for that. Its funny, i talk to a lot of Portfolio Managers that try to tell me certain Retail Stocks are better because their wife broke half the parking lot and it was packed. Clearly we cant use that as a metric anymore. I would also look at luxury names, people that are less impacted by no stimulus or losing their jobs. I love Restoration Hardware here. I still love lulu and peloton here. I still like louis vuitton. Charles today, we got the consumer income numbers. It was a miss, down. 7 , 130 billion. The miss really came from the government transfer, right. Again, same thing with the unemployment claims. Pandemic insurance moneys running out. Is that going to have could that have a detrimental impact on the retail scene . I would think it would. I dont know why congress is not acting. I know. To your point, those transfer payments matter. All that money is green and walmart really relies on those transfer payments. Their consumer will go straight to walmart once they get that stimulus. Same with amazon, too. Yeah, i really do think that will put a dent into consumer spending. I think congress should get their act together and i think the folks that need it absolutely need a stimulus and retail will benefit from that. Charles all right. Always appreciate your expertise. Have a great thanksgiving. Thanks so much. Charles all right, folks. Later in the hour, los angeles is about to ban Outdoor Dining even after admitting theres no scientific link to the covid spike. So why hurt thousands and thousands of Business Owners . First, janet yellen expected to be joe bidens pick at treasury. Is there a downside to so much easy money . Thats next. For over 30 years, lexus has been celebrating driveway moments. Heres to one more, the lexus december to remember sales event. 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Service stand back, im gonna show ya how doug and limu roll, ya you know you got to live it if you wanna wi. [ music stops ] time out only pay for what you need. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Charles one of the names at the very top of the list would be janet yellen for treasury secretary. Now, this news coming as one of yellens former colleagues at the new york fed, president john williamson, says the Federal Reserve can restart emergency lending if they need to and on that note, i want to bring in former dallas fed adviser danielle di martino booth and from the university of maryland, economist peter morici. Danielle, before we start with any of the actions being taken, your reaction on twitter to the selection of janet yellen . You almost broke twitter. What is your problem with janet yellen heading up the Treasury Department . Well, back to where we were a year ago, i was on set with you and we were talking about the most mundane, arcane plumbing issues in the repo market and overnight reserve and all the things were gumming up the plumbing in the financial system. These are matters that make markets tick and or come to a screeching halt. Janet yellen is a labor economist. The reason the mortgage the subprime mortgage crisis blew up in her backyard, remember countrywide mortgage, it was on tv constantly, the color of my dress, but she has a fundamental underappreciation and misunderstanding of the intersection of the Financial Markets and economic data. It was a very easy choice for biden to make. Janet yellen is the ultimate comfort food for markets. She would impose negative interest rates, have the fed buy stocks, do everything that markets love to hear but in terms of setting us up for longer term financial instability, shes the right person as well and thats what concerns me. Charles i would say more than comfort food. Looks like wall street broke out the champagne, the caviar and everyone is sporting a mozillo tan. How do you feel about janet yellen at treasury . Well, janet yellen is very liberal. Shes very much into social programs and theres a lot of pressure from the left to start using the fed for social purposes to make loans, you know, set aside special money for minority housing and things like that, industrial policy purposes, green energy and so forth. Essentially put it into the industrial policy business and politicize it like a latin american bank. The treasury historically has been the one check on the Federal Reserve. Its sort of the place in the government that is very cautious because the fed can do virtually whatever it wants because the only people that really can sue them, take them to court, are the treasury. Now that check is gone. So im very concerned that poor mr. Powell is going to be the guy with his finger in the dike because she is a labor economist and i dont know that she has a full grasp of the gravity of the things that she can do by giving the fed 500 billion and saying gear it up and make 2 trillion worth of loans to this purpose. Charles i did get around to reading some of her papers and i didnt realize how much of a social Justice Warrior she is. Yeah, she is. Charles yeah, thats a graeat point. It will affect a lot of things from fed policy to spending. You brought up treasury and the relationship to the fed. Big news this week was Steven Mnuchin announcing the next treasury secretary would need congressional the actions would make it so that the next treasury secretary would need congressional approval for that next 455 billion. Let me go back to you first on this, danielle. Lot of folks saying this is a political move but i like the notion that if congress which needs more pressure in my mind if they are going to do some sort of stimulus, at least can say okay, we have access to more money. Is this a political move, is it a dumb move . Whats going on . You know, charles, im with you on this. I dont think its as much political as it is mathematical. Mcconnell can come back as part of the december 11th continuing resolution and say you know what, we are going to tuck that skinny stimulus in there, half a trillion dollars, and we are going to claw that 400 billion odd that was not deployed, where it was supposed to be, in order to help maximize employment, their second mandate. We will take that money and tack it on and have true stimulus. Again, without taxing too much more from the u. S. Taxpayer. Charles i like that idea. Thats a fantastic idea. Peter, less than a minute but i want to give you the last word on all of this. Does this help perhaps speed up or give us some form of stimulus . I think the clawing back does, because it takes that money, puts it aside, makes it available and my feeling is we are going to probably see about 1 trillion worth of stimulus. Well, now half a trillion is already paid for. So thats a good thing. The fed cant go off and get involved in crazy social programs. Charles danielle, peter, two of the best. We were lucky to have you today. Thank you both very much. Meanwhile, officials try to monitor how many people are coming to your house for thanksgivi thanksgiving. Especially in california. But get this. The same state saw inmates, part of an alleged plan or scheme, if you will, that saw 1 billion in unemployment going to the wrong hands. Im going to get reaction on that next. And hes fired, he got fired from his job after showing his employers how to appeal to custom