Muchneeded good news on treatment and vaccines for the virus. Health and Human Services secretary elex is our wednesday and in operation warp Speed Reading same expects 40 million doses to be ready for distribution by the end of the summer, but 20 million americans. Pfizer and moderna said this week their candidates proved to be about 95 effective in the late stage clinical trials. Pfizer said friday it would seek emergency use authorization from the fda. Professor of Health Policy and the Johns HopkinsPublic Health and fox news medical contributor. Doctor, welcome back. Good to see you. Before we get to the vaccine, i would ask you about the state of the pandemic right now. How much worse will he get before it gets better . If you think about it in terms of the electoral college, we need to get to about 220 americans having been infected to have community immunity. Hopefully we will have good vaccination rates before we get to that number but we are taking a lot of infection into the fall right now, probably three quarters of a million to 1 million new cases a day. Probably 150 million already infected, we are probably adding almost 1 million a day right now. Paul we have to get to 220 million to have something comparable to herd immunity. For vaccinations, yes. Paul okay. Our hospitals being close to being overrun right now . I know thats are going way down relative to the rate at which people died in april. Doctors are doing a much better job at preserving and i think people need to interpret media reports carefully. When hospitals are full or near full, people need to remember hospitals normally are full or near full in precollege times. The real question, how many medical care patients are being displaced by Covid Patients . Its 20 33 or so. Hospitals are strained for sure. The bigger issue is staffing that was an issue already strained before covid and now its being magnified. Paul so are we going to see and do we need more lockdowns . I dont think we will see a National Lockdown while President Trump is in office but regionally, youre seeing that. We need that . Targeted closures for indoor public areas make sense in areas but a much more simpler and feasible intervention at this time is simple, mask mandate and indoor public areas were social distancing cannot be achieved. That is one simple thing we can do as a country and it is much more compatible. I called for the lockdowns in march, we didnt know what we are dealing with. It was scary. Paul i understand that. But we need to evolve our strategies. Paul lets talk about the vaccines which is very good news, 90 effective rate. Do you foresee any difficulty with the pfizer or moderna vaccines getting fda approval . I dont. I think they are under intense scrutiny. I dont think its going to be tolerable for the fda to do their normal process of sending the data to the advisory commission, external reviewers and giving them two weeks to look it over. The country right now is in the state of emergency i do think we will see it turned around in a few days and we saw secretary as are saying 24 48 hours and another 24 hours to distribute getting in to that. Paul does it give you pause that there could be mistakes or glitches . You feel confident about this process . I do. The review of the data is not going back and interviewing patients. Looking at data output and if you put smart people together in a room, they reached the same inclusion 24 hours they can in two weeks. Its extremely independent and i would feel comfortable taking it if they say. Paul the protocols in place for once the vaccines rollout for healthcare workers to be the first to be inoculated. I think everybody agrees that makes sense. Then they say people with comorbidities would get it, people at high risk. You agree with those two priorities . I do. We want to think about those at higher risk and whose most likely to transmit the infection and give it to others our Research Identified those at high risk and mortality to be seniors, sicklecell disease, chronic disease, leukemia, Heart Failure and diabetes and obesity. Those are the highrisk Seniors First in line. Paul theres an alternative school of thought that says we shouldnt inoculate teachers because we want to get the schools open and they should it be at the beginning along with healthcare workers. Others say we should get young adults because they tend to be super spread is and if we get them immunized, they wont spread as much and we can protect, that is the way to protect the most at risk. I think every american is an important and precious american to protect. We shouldnt think about anyone less than anyone else but the data are pretty clear and if a teacher is highrisk and falls into one of those comorbidities, sure. They can be first in line but lets look at the data. 35000 kids and one School District in north carolina, 100 infections, not a single transmission child to adult. The data has come in. Its overwhelming and its clear the classroom is a safe place when basic mitigation can take place. Paul all right. Thanks so much for coming on. Appreciate it. When we come back as coronavirus cases spike across the country, mayors and governors are imposing new restrictions and facing backlash. Everyone loves the james and Indoor Dining. This year, walmarts turning black friday into deals for days. Starting wed 11 25 shop online only and score deals like a 299 Nintendo Switch bundle with mario kart. Lets end the year saving bigger. Stayed on my mind. Was another around the corner . Or could it be a different story . 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Bill de blasio saying the nations largest School District would close for in Person Learning and warning its just a matter of time before the city was shut down Indoor Dining and gyms as well. Lets bring in our panel. Deputy editorial page editor. Dan henninger. Kim strassel and alisha. Youve followed all of this the beginning in detail. Tell us about the hospitalizations across the country. How threatened are some of the hospitals . Hospitalizations are definitely rising especially in some area hotspots. They are rising across the country but i think the worst is probably over in these places, hospitalizations in south dakota and north dakota, northeastern wisconsin. The Southeast Area around milwaukee. Theyve built field hospitals in el paso and wisconsin that can handle the search. Previous segments, some workers doctors are calling in sick and take care of the load but keep in mind, the patients are coming in and you see it in the data classified as Covid Patients are actually coming in for other issues. It be a car accident, they are pregnant or something. 30 of the patients in these states who are hospitalized and classified as Covid Patients are actually in the hospital for something else. Paul it sounds between you and doctor, you think its a manageable spike if we are able to send in Surge Capacity into real hospitals. What about the lockdowns . What you make about the renewal of lockdowns . The justification in march and april was there is a lot of uncertainty and we need to protect hospitals so we didnt see the scenes like in italy. Do we need new lockdowns now . Allysia we found lockdowns arent effective. People automatically change their behavior anyways and reduce how much they go out and socialize. To the extent that i think lockdowns in the spring because lockdown fatigue and people got tired of restrictions and then they went out and socialize and there are things government cannot enforce a lot of these governors are trying to impose limits on private gatherings. Theyre not going to go door to door, i guess they could but [laughter] i wouldnt put it past mayor de blasio to stop people from having a thanksgiving with family. Paul kim, lets talk about the schools. New lockdowns in germany and france and other countries, they have not those schools get here in the u. S. , most of the students in the u. S. I think not being in in Person Learning, the closure in new york. What you think about that . Kim we are an outlier. There was a poll in october and almost 60 of kids at that time were learning entirely online. Less than a quarter were actually in Person Learning. You can imagine that number has gone down that you have places like new york closed for in Person Learning and the craziness of this is, we just heard the doctor talking about this, schools are one of the safest places that kids can be so you have this double whammy that in new york, you have kids in other places where they will be at more risk to contracting the virus but in addition, we are seeing extraordinary poor outcomes of Remote Learning for kids all over. Kids are moving an entire year of schooling and given americas education outcomes right now, we cant afford that. We are to look back on this, this will be one of the worst Public Policy decisions of this entire pandemic, the handling of schools. Paul dan, looking at what governor witmer is doing, shes being sued in michigan and the churches are suing, synagogues are suing because what they think are arbitrary shutdowns in a lot of areas including new york state, pet stores can stay open but churches are closed. The cynicism on the public about following covid protocols. Dan i think its can shooting to real loss of credibility among the public and enthusiasm. Public is confused because they get conflicting rules, the closing of the schools this week in which both Governor Andrew Cuomo and bill de blasio seem to be cross purposes over when or why schools will be closed and who has the authority to do it. I think what is going on here, the same thing is true in michigan and many other places, the words arbitrary. Many of these politicians worry a lot about their legacy. We are after ten months, not much more sophistication and restrictions they are imposing and i think what they are afraid of his history will blame them for deaths from coronavirus. Governor cuomo carries the additional nursing home deaths within a ball and chain but they are not afraid history will blame them for everything else. Bankruptcies, closed schools, deferred care, depression and the like. They are totally focused on death rates in these states and they take steps and policies they think they are going to restrict that or bring that down to the loss of everything else. Paul thank you all. When we come back, preelection polls predicted a landslide for democrats. Results up and down. The ballot shows something very different. What we learned about americas moderate electorate. Next. Did you know that geicos whole 15 minutes thing. That came from me. Really. My first idea was in one quarter of an hour, your savings will tower. Over you. Figuratively speaking. But thats not catchy, is it . Thats not going to swim about in your brain. So i thought, what about. 15 minutes. 15 percent. Serendipity. 15 minutes could save you 15 or more on Car Insurance. har betsy twelquarter mile of tinsel. Lights. Serendipity. harold and real snow all the way from switzerland. betsy hmmhm. Gonna be tough to top. betsy well played. vo add some thrill to your wish list. 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I think the Election Results led us into the true character of the country that i think has been obscured by Media Coverage of the left for so many years. The truth is, there are fewer liberals than there were four years ago and more conservatives, 76 of this country is moderate or conservative, only 24 liberal. I think that can come through particularly in the congressional Election Results. Paul how do you explain the dichotomy between the president losing and republican gaining seats in the house and breaking even at minimum in the south . I think the president made a couple of mistakes, to be honest, he was cruising for reelection before the virus came upon the country and he didnt handle the virus in a satisfactory way with the bipartisan authorization. I think he took it as a political operation and he took the blame on the virus went south. I think secondarily, he made a minute major mistake not encouraging his supporters to vote by mail. After all, voting by mail is a lot easier than showing up in november at the polls. Paul one of the interesting things he wrote for us this we week, trump lost seven points compared to four years ago among white men. He gained two points among white women. We thought it would be the opposite. Is it fair to say if the president has done better with white men, he would have one . That is right. It turns out that moderate white men were the real swing voters. They were voters who didnt like Hillary Clinton who had 65 negative but felt more comfortable with joe biden than they did with donald trump. They focused on that route, rather than focusing on who they did focus on, they could have one. Paul fascinating. Lets talk about the moderate electorate, what does that mean in practical terms . Against tax increases, against the socialized medicine . What else does it mean . In practical terms, i like to say we are one nation divided by two parties now which means the public could get together and do immigration reforms cover borders and did something for daca and those without documentation pretty well. I think on most of the issues, healthcare at this time, they would more or less call for mandate but continue to expand medicaid subsidies to increase coverage. The publics very sensible. They want free speech, they are concerned about the growth of tech companies. This is a moderate sensible election that warrant compromised and moving forward. They want the stimulus bill of a reasonable and moderate size now. Paul okay. Do you think Nancy Pelosis opposition to not doing a deal on a stimulus hurt the party in the house . I think absolutely. Pelosis refusal to take the 1. 8 trillion deal hurt her and made the democrats look like it was all politics. Remember, the idea of getting elected is to do things. The idea isnt just to get reelected. Think people saw this as fundamentally to political. Her set numbers were substantially lower than trumps. Paul identity politics, particularly in the Democrat Coalition seems to take a blow with the rejection. In 52 of 58 counties of the referendum to restore racial preferences, what message does it send to the party about its focus on gender and race and identity as political issues . Heres where you ask the public, is there a lot of racism in america . They will say yes they will say do you want to defund the police . They will say absolutely no. They want to fix things and what is their dream . Their dream is to have post Racial Society that president obama originally talked about, not a racially divided identity politics society. I think it came through very clear both in politics and in this clear results and even california. Paul it was striking, california. I guess it would be downplayed, that kind of racial polarization going ahead. One of the best things biden could do be the police in black community brought together. Neither obama nor trump really attempted to do that. I was always surprised.