We are answering your questions about the crisis from Small Business owners to individual investors, tweet me at cb payne, all that and more on making money. Charles stocks are down as effort to combat coronavirus taking a serious toll on our economy. I mean, losing 701,000 jobs in march, thats the worst monthly lost since 2007. The market held up better in recent weeks, but few folks believe that the worse is over. Get this, there have been 20 s p bear market rallies of 15 or more. How do we know if a bottom has been reached if any of the moves are higher temporarily and do we go back down. I will bring rob luna alicia levin. Alicia, let me start with you. This week i will figure out what the market did monday through friday for the last 3 weeks, i would argue they are probably up but the friday sessions have been reminders of just how dangerous this territory is and how much of the unknown is out there. How are you assessing it all . Alicia right, i think we can call coronavirus fridays and nobody wants to hold long positions going into weekend given the fact that news is coming so rapidly and also markets reacting to healthcare data and that happens over the weekend when markets are closed. Investors are reluctant of going into the weekend. I will say this. I think for the most part some of the bad news is already expected and priced into the market. Charles you know, rob, to that point, over these years, 15 bear market rallies of more than 15 , the quickest were 2 days, 8 days and 30 days, the longest were as long as 393 days, so we can actually see a rebound of a year duration and technically being a bear market and so i started this week on monday talking about the 3 times a bear market markets. A lot of unknowns of where we go from here. Rob thats exactly, charles, it is driven. Is this going to be cyclical or more of a structural issue and the market is trying to digest the news. We all know if we open the economy, still take time to ramp up. Earning estimates have still very high. My biggest concern, charles, if you look at the earnings which is hard to get arms around also its not extremely cheap. Retail for us seems likely. Its probably the best Case Scenario we think right now. Charles you know, alicia, i look for individual investment ideas, i dont ever invest, quote, unquote on the whole market because i want the best semiconductor and not the worst Semiconductor Stock in my port poll i. When rob mentions earnings, one thing that i have noticed that when earnings come up, give us a glimpse of companies that are doing well and taken market share and had perhaps pricing power. Theres a way for investors to make a list and find ideas to come out better than the rest, i mean, because ultimately we will be in oversold position no matter what when we hit the bottom and folks want to zero in on opportunities. Alicia let me say that i agree with rob here. I mentioned markets not really pricing in the sense that this could go much longer than just a couple of months, with that comes major disruption to the economy. Having said that, i think there are clear leaders here. Lets start with investing along side the fed, so the fed has essentially has to take winners. We suggest investors go to small cap to large cap and give any exposure overseas, come back home here to the corporations with the feds balance sheet. Secondly, you also have to think about which sectors that are going to be relative winners when we are on the other side of this and you have to look at health care which really hasnt done much over the last cycle in the last 10 years as relative winner coming out of this and also less likely to be regulated than it was before this crisis started. Charles you know, rob, to that point i also think because of the strong dollar you want to find more domestically Oriented Companies and and so to alicias point, healthcare suffered last year from political pressure. Everyone knows that there could be some sort of additional strut any of the industry but by the same tone we are applauding what they are doing right now. Yeah, thats exactly. Alicia you are basically talking our playbook. Thats what we have been doing in the downturn. We are trying to reposition our clients where we do believe inevitable recovery and we are pretty much cutting International Exposure because theres really no reason to go outside of the u. S. And take that risk when you this discount that we are seeing right now and i Like Health Care but what i would add to that is technology you look at recoveries, technologies led 2 to 1 versus the rest of the market and you look right now, charles, look at what companies are investing, employees are staying at home, crowd strike, end point security, thats going to be a big issue as you see the people working remotely that companies are concerned with. Charles hey, rob, alicia, please hold one second for me. Stay with us. I want to bring in Manpower Group north american president becky who joins us now on the phone. Becky, thanks for joining us on the phone. Thank you, charles. Charles okay, 701,000 jobs lost, yikes, listen, thats if wall street was looking for a hundred thousand i dont know why they are trying to do estimates anymore. As you go went through the data, theres a couple of areas where there were job gains albeit small, what does this tell you how does this inform you also compared with the fact that you know more about the jobs market than anyone to begin with, how do you put all of this together what should we be bracing for in the months . The numbers this morning were devastating for the american worker, charles, notably because the month of over month gain that we experienced, we didnt need the report today to tell us what was happening. We see it in realtime as we work with employees and employers across the nation. The other thing we are seeing in realtime two areas that we can focus on. We are seeing the largest reallocation of labor since world war ii. Overnight industries are shifting from hospitality and leisure to to retail. We have 5 million open jobs in our country not on hiring freeze. We have more people unemployed but we still have 5 million open jobs. We are working with marriott and hyatt and hilton to move impacted associates to continue earnings and, charles, its heartbreaking to talk to these companies. They love their associates, they want them to keep earnings, so we are helping place them and second area of focus to keep us moving forward is ensuring the essential employees know they are valued, giving them a safety environment. Doing split shifts so you are putting them in between. You are starting to see wage increases, charles, im sure you saw this good morning. We are seeing in grocery retailing and warehousing. There are some bright spots but overall its devastating to see a reversal so quickly. Charles you know, to your point i have friends and or Family Member who is went to work no new york city, homeless shelter, construction, cashier, laundry services. Outside of buddy in construction, lowpaying jobs and highrisk jobs. Youre saying they will see grocery increases . 2 to 3 an hour, warehousing 5 to 10 bigger pay increases in areas most impacted by the virus. Yeah, i believe they will start to see more increases. Charles one of the sectors actually had job growth, becky, youre the best, thank you very much, we appreciate it. Thank you, charles. Charles i want to bring in market guest rob and alicia. Okay, guys, we talked about allocation but list go a little bit more macro here with the notion that you brought up that the sobering reality is its going to take longer to snap back. I mean, certainly some form of a snap back but how do you after what becky just told us with the jobs market after we saw 700,000 jobs, 10 million unemployment claims in 2 weeks, how does that inform your Investment Strategy and folks who are watching, investors who are watching, what should they consider . So i think the magnitude of the numbers that we are talking about when i mentioned it was historic, our models are not very good in telling you where we are going here because actually these are outliers and having said that its very clear that april is going to be a devastating month both on the healthcare side and on the economic side and i think investors and the population at large, we are prepared for that. I think what we are not prepared for is that this extends longer maybe into early summer and then what we are seeing in asia and we should be talking about this is that theres a concern about a second way in china and in hong kong and that is not something that the market is pricing in here which is why we are relatively cautious overall although certain individuals stocks do feel like they are ready to start edging into. Charles you know, rob, to that point. I think thats going to be a political discussion and the administration has all month to work on that and figure out a game plan and controversial. We had a lively passionate debate about that this morning on the maria show, but the notion that we cant reopen the economy until weve actually beaten the virus means the vaccine means 18 months. Theres no way in the world anything survives, the stock market or the economy if we have to go at this pace for another 18 months. Rob no, thats exactly it. Thats what the market is trying to get their arms around, how long is this going to be. Lets say we get the economy back open in a couple of months. We know that behavior will be changed. First like alicia is seeing, concern about the second wave. When disneyland reopens do you think theyll be full capacity right away . Things put in place that will cause impact on earnings for quite a few quarters. Thats the biggest challenge and really our biggest concern for us with the market overall is valuations we think are still not reflecting that but just like youre saying and alicia is saying, this is the time where all of the passive indexers dominating the market for the last decade really have to stop and take a look at the companies that they own because clear winners and clear losers unlike we have ever seen before. Charles passive investing, you know, its fantastic on the way up, but i think it has to contribute to a degree to the pain on the way down. Alicia, we talked you and rob on the same page, anything on the upside, any level that may make you rethink that or think that the coast is clear even for a short period of time . I started the segment talking about bull market runs or big, bull rallies in a bear market and sometimes can be lucrative particularly to those folks sitting on a lot of losses and sitting on cash and want to know what to do. Alicia so, look, the place where you might feel most comfortable in terms of probability, its probably the index gets over 2800 and a long way from here but, you know, if you want certainty and not betting atlas vegas, i think thats a better place to look at because if you can hold 2800 level youre probably in movement upward. Having said that, its going to be very, very huff to get there. The headlines are going to be dreadful throughout the month of april and just feel like earnings right now for 2020 are a black hole, right, so the public investments are hanging out there, 163, which is completely impossible and youre going to have a drop between 25 to 50 in earnings for 2020, and with that, all of a sudden the multiple go a lot higher than where we are today. It feels like its going to be challenging to get to those higher levels in the s p. Charles well, thankfully we have you and rob to help throughout all of this. Hope you have a safe weekend, we will see you again soon. Ahead of virtual town hall America Works together. On thursday 2 25 we will go to help ohio Small Business owner navigate the challenges that shes facing in realtime, real difficult time, first we are seeing the biggest capitalism in lifetime. Are big businesses or administration doing enough or paving the way for even larger, gigantic governments. I will ask liz peek next. You doing okay . Yeah. This moving thing never gets any easier. Well, xfinity makes moving super easy. I can transfer my internet and tv service in about a minute. Wow, that is easy. Almost as easy as having those guys help you move. We are those guys. Thats you . The truck adds 10 pounds. In the arms. Okay. Transfer your Service Online in a few easy steps. Now thats simple, easy, awesome. Transfer your service in minutes, making moving with xfinity a breeze. Visit xfinity. Com moving today. Charles this to me the moment of truth when capitalism is being tested appear its your administration, you and President Trump that have to prove that it is the best way to go about life. I actually think that America Business has proven that every day. President trump and i couldnt be more proud of the way american businesses have stepped forward. Charles Vice President mike pence throwing support behind american businesses reinventing themselves to help fight the pandemic, but as federal government and Federal Reserve pass out trillions of dollars to keep the economy afloat, many are wonder if the nation will want bigger government from now on. On this topic liz peek. You and i have talked this about. Its been an election topic and you heard folks saying, see, universal basic income works. We should let the fed print money and maybe they can pay off student loans. You know whats happening out there. What do you think . Liz first of all, i would say the craziest thing of Democrat Party was that it took place during the period of unprecedented prosperity in our country thanks to private sector. I mean, what we have seen in the last several years is better jobs, better incomes, et cetera, Even Opposing of the income closing of the income inequality gap and we had Bernie Sanders vilifying american corporations during the good times and now we have the opposite and i would sort of take issue with what you said because it seems to me corporations really have an opportunity here. The private sector has an opportunity here to really do very well. What are we seeing from the federal government up till now . In the past and continuing a lack of foresight, a lack of planning ahead, a lack of stockpiling the products that we need or even anticipating the downside of our other reliance on china. Charles, those are bureaucrat problems and they continue. The problems we have with testing today are bureaucrat problems. They are not privatesector jobs. So im kind of, i guess im kind of optimistic that mike pence is correct that, in fact, as American Companies big and small step up. Whether its mike lindell or my pillow making product that is the country really needs, we will think kindly about our private sector. Charles yeah, theres no doubt the additional masks are coming out of private sector inventories, the additional, you know, to your point they are making hand sanitizers, ventilators, masks, but they also have inventory in storage where you have governments particularly local and state governments that ignored it completely and now, of course, everyone is pointing their finger at the federal government. You know, having said that, theres another debate too thats here and i want to ask you about it and its perhaps even a larger debate. When do we bring people back to work . When do we not flip a switch and just order the whole world to go country to go back to work but find a smart way to gradually return the wheels of progress, turn the wheels of commerce again because if we wait until we have a vaccine, i think its going to be far too late. Liz we cant do that. We cannot afford to have tens of millions of people out of work for an extended period of time. Truthfully we simply cant afford it and the people want to get back to work as soon as its safe. How does that work . I think for every business and every industry its going to be a different call slews, charles, but you and i can think of dozens of businesses, small real estate brokerages or insurance companies, whatever, they can institute safeguards that will make it okay for people to come back to work and i think thats whats going to have to happen and you cant have the economy on lockdown forever, theyll be parts of the country where this ravages through and you get to what is immunity to it and then you start to reopen some of those areas in cautious way. To your point everyone is acting like this is on, off, its not, its a gradual transition. Local authorities have to figure out what makes sense with the advice of the medical community but i really think we can get there and its just a matter of sort of being smart. Charles liz peek, when it comes to being smart, youre right up there. I appreciate it all of the time. See you soon. Have a great weekend, liz. Liz grate is great is probably charles yeah, in this environment. We will see you soon. Small Business Assistance website is now online. We will have update for how many Small Business owners are getting the loans that they so desperately need and ahead of virtual town hall America Works together on thursday april 9th, we will pair up one expert with ohio Small Business owner who is trying to navigate through challenges in realdifficult time. You do not want to miss it. We will be right back. Charles help is on the pay, the Paycheck Protection Program is now lives, some banks may not be ready for fallout and still waiting for guidance from the Small Business administration. Edward lawrence live in washington with the very latest, edward. Edward a lot of money going from mainly Community Banks this morning. The ones leading the charge. Let me show you the latest numbers. As of 2 00 p. M. 5,218 loans have been written. Valued at 1. 8 billion, 1. 8 billion. Thats a lot of money being pushed out in this economy. The loans are retroactive. Back in february 15th, we have seen a lot of this momentum and if the Small Businesses will then go back and rehire some of those folks from the date. Now, the next effort when the jobless comes out on may eighth may effect the numbers there to see where that comes in. Early on the Community Banks stepped in