You start to ask yourself whats next . How about a usmca deal, a trade deal . Could that send the markets even higher than they are now . There is a meeting underway today, in washington between trade reps from the u. S. And mexico. Well talk about that. Start real clear markets editor, author of a new book, theyre both wrong. John tamny joining us now. Talk about your book in a second, john which i started reading. It is great. Often times they are both wrong but lets start with this market and whether or not a trade deal on, usmca may be combined with some start with china. Does that send stocks even higher than they are now . What do you think . My sense that is why you have seen some of this uptick in stocks for quite a while. That has been a anticipation of a deal, usmca, and then also quieter talk, happier talk between the u. S. And china. Something happening there. I would add a third thing that probably soothes eninvestors minds is, all these, all this fighting over impeachment, where that is going to go. Once you have both parties in washington at serious odds like this, it greatly reduces the odds of politicians making a big deal that sets markets back. So this divide in washington is very good for the stock market. Connell youre still on gridlock. That is still 90s, john. Nothing changes. Connell in some ways it doesnt actually but you think that is helping sentiment but part of what youre saying a lot of this might be priced into the market if we anticipated trade deals that will get done, right . I dont imagine, i would be very surprised if upon signing or, voting through of the usmca, that there is some paying market jump based on that. Because i think a lot of this has been assumed. The assumption also is, donald trump wouldnt want to go into the Election Year 2020, with china still uncertain. He needs to have that less after risk factor also. So my sense, that is what investors are pricing in, along with the divide that is always pleasurable to them. Connell you talk in a your book, again the title gives that way how they both get things wrong many times. In terms of economics what might get started into markets, at some point how we figure out how the race looks for 2020 what the candidates that get elected would do. You take on republicans and take on democrats. One of the chapters on tax increases, no surprise, people heard your commentary the democrats get it wrong on tax increases. So could we be in a situation next year look like one of them might win and that is something that investors have to consider . Certainly if one of the democrats sales towards the nomination looking for a big tax increase, my sense that would be priced early as a negative for the markets, just because the outcome of election 2020 is still uncertain. Thats the bad news. The good news historically if it is expected that slow growth or tax hiking person is going to be elected president , usually the bad news happens in the election cycle and then once theyre actually in the white house the good news starts to price in because we have got that information. Weve been able to price it. Invariably it has to be stressed that the stock market is the most powerful force in the world, much more powerful than any president. So they cant move too far left or right. Weve seen that with President Trump. Weve seen that with a president warren. She cannot, she would never be able to do all the things she proposes. Thank goodness. That is the beauty of divided power in washington. Connell she is fading a bit anyway, well talk about in a minute seems like in many polls. This is truly fair and balanced book with john tamny. He goes after republicans early on for things like immigration. Great read. Theyre both wrong. John is very independent thinker. The book reflects that. Always good to see you. Thanks for having me. Connell holiday sales expected to top one trillion dollars for the first time. There is a round number for you as stores are set to be opened up tomorrow. All the deals, even on thanksgiving day ahead of black friday. Former saks chairman and ceo it with us. Seems like it is all online, steve. That is pretty big number to say we could get to a trillion dollars. What does it tell me . It tells me the Consumer Shopping and Mastercard Spending polls, like well be in the 3 1 2 type growth for the Holiday Season. It is healthy, but not quite as good as last Holiday Season. Were closer to four 1 2 to 5 growth range this last season. Not just online. Online is growing very quickly, probably in the 15 range. What you see is about 85, 90 of commerce is still being done in a physical store. Thats why beginning of this Holiday Season is so important. Thursday, black friday. Not so much, sales of those days per se. It is the mindset. It is getting people into the headset that theyre timed to start shopping and this year its a shorter season. You have got six less days. It is early, heavy promotions, hit them hard, hit them early. Connell we talk about retail in Broad Strokes to your point, to make a point how the consumer is doing or what have you. A lot comes down to execution. You see some stores doing very, very well. Others obviously struggling. Who is impressing you in terms how theyre hanging in there on the brick and mortar side . As you say, theyre still people. We see video of them running around the stores for as much as we mentioned online . Who impresses in execution . I think you have a winners and losers. The winners are a lot of the Big Box Stores that made the omni channel invests. They have the technical infrastructure, analytic skills. It is walmarts, targets of the world, that are seeing terrific results. But youre also seeing certain categories doing better than others. For example, the Electronics Category to doing extremely well. You saw that in the best buy numbers the other day. Category is doing nicely. Jewelry is holding up pretty well. The Department Stores not doing as well. Connell right. Youre seeing tougher results out of the traditional Department Stores. Connell we saw barneys, which everybody would think you pay arm and leg out of anything in barneys, we showed video theyre giving stuff away as theyre going through bankruptcy. It is going through liquidation. It demonstrates that the whole Retail Industry and Department Stores especially are a story of consolidation over many years. It is hard to be a niche player in the marketplace. They were a byproduct of some of that but having said that you have 12,000 store closes in the United States this year. On the other hand you have a lot of store openings and growth driven a lot by digitnally native brands as well as some larger players doing even better. Connell to wrap it up, steve, anything says were not heading to recessionary behavior. Maybe were not we have healthy consumer. The consumer is 2 3 of the economy. Absent a big disruption. Were coming out of the year with fairly amount of consumer momentum. Connell happy thanksgiving to you. Steve sadove. When youre talking about records broken this holiday weekend. We do stories every year about the thanksgiving travel this year. Over 49 Million People traveling by car. Rough weather threaten the travel in many parts of the country. Grady trimble on all that today. Reporter hey, connell. 49 million americans on the road today, we decided what is one more car on the road. Were here outside of chicago. That 49 million surprisingly is not a record but second only to the record set in 2005. It is up about 2. 8 compared to this time last year. One thing drivers do not need to worry about today, is gas prices. Theyre still relatively low. The National Average about 2. 59 but what they do need to Pay Attention to closely is the weather. There is wicked weather from the west coast to where we are in the midwest. We talked to some drivers out here. They noticed the wind here in chicago, even though there is no snow or rain right now. They said the wind was pretty bad even in small cars, let alone for semitrucks. I mean even, im in very small car. Even in a small car you can feel it pulling at your car. I cant imagine what it is like to be in a semitruck. That has to be a completely difficult situation. Theyre slowing down a little bit but probably not enough. Reporter so where is everybody going . The top destination this is Holiday Season, two of the top places people are going in hawaii. Four in the warm weather cities of florida. Connell, some people are going up to where you are in new york city. Connell we have enough people here. I will say this, grady. We do this story every year. The great jeff flock handled it for years. Normally he drives. Makes me nervous. You know what, this is safer. I have both handsfree. Connell this is safer. Have someone else drive, you can speak. Not criticizing jeff at all, you know at least were not as nervous watching you sometimes you never know. Jeff is looking at us. Driving the whole time. Good to see you, grady out on the roads in chicago with a driver. Not a bad gig. Major democratic donor coming up next he is a joe biden supporter. Mike bloomberg getting in the race he says changes potentially everything about the race. Catch us after the bell on 4 00 p. M. Today is the final full trading day of the week heading thanksgiving. Friday is a shortened day. Well see you back on coast to coast. 1 in 5 people you meet wear dentures. Yeah. That many but right now, is not the time to talk about it. So when youre ready, search my denture care. Poligrip and polident. Fixed. Fresh. And just between us. 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Backing the former Vice President in this particular race. Im talking about a Politico Magazine piece where you probably seen or herd about where the former president is quoted and the context of that quote is, it comes second or third hand, that he is talking to another candidate who comes to see him in the office supposedly, he says, i used to have a intimate bond with the electorate especially in iowa apparently president obama says he no longer has. You know who really doesnt have it . Joe biden. What do you say . Well, look i cant comment on that i wasnt there. What i can say is, Vice President biden has led this primary pretty much from day one to today. I think he has put together a Strong National campaign. He is clearly the guy to beat. I can also say that Barack Obamas endorsement would probably be without any doubt the most the important endorsement in this race. If he were allowed to run a third time i would think he would win the the presidency by 20 points. Connell that part is not happening obviously but the first part might and hasnt yet. There is lot said about the former Vice President , i asked him not to endorse me. What do you say . Look, again, i cant comment on that. What this is all about is, you have got, a dozen candidate, the number is shrinking all the time and the big question i think voters are really looking deep into their souls on, at least if youre a democrat, which of these candidates joe biden, Pete Buttigieg, senator warren, et cetera, can win those three or four key Electoral College states . I think Vice President biden is best positioned to do that. I think the data shows that. He was born in pennsylvania. Right. I think Mike Bloomberg coming into the race introduces a interesting new element. Well see. That is why it is one of the most interesting elections of our time. Connell lets talk about that a little bit because as you allude to that buttigieg done a little better in the polls. There is new polling where biden leads nationally. What is the effect of bloomberg . He will not come to you to raise money. He will spend a lot of his own money. How does he change the dynamic of this . Easy to write Mike Bloomberg off as a billionaire. With the base of the party that is not the most popular thing in the world but i think analysts and other candidates would be remiss to dismiss him. Heres why. He held office three times. Very popular mayor of new york. Many said the best mayor in the country. Second, elections, especially president ial elections in this company are expensive. You have the worlds ninth richest human being, someone can run a 50state campaign. And third, this is something less talk about, all democrats are talking about income redistribution. Mike bloomberg is talking about Wealth Creation and redistribution. I think that will be a powerful message to a lot of voters. He is trying to position himself as the candidate of jobs. Well see how it shakes out. Connell as a biden supporter, does it worry you . Bloomberg gets into the race to defeat donald trump what he talked about in his ads but in the primaries to beat someone like Elizabeth Warren who he disagrees with on the issues. Net effect of that analysts will tell you could split the vote of socalled moderate democrats and that would hurt the guy youre supporting Vice President biden . That is an issue. Any candidate on the left or center would be foolish to disunder michael bloomberg. He is extremely articulate, strong track record, job creator. I think joe biden is the person that resonates the best with america. He is the most experienced. He is ready to go on day one. Also someone that most every american knows, feels comfortable with and has been associated with probably the most popular presidency in the last few decades. Connell final point, you had a lot of complimentary things to say about bloomberg. Why is biden better than bloomberg . Somebody that needs fundraising, still need supporters like you . Just listening to you speak sounds like you really like bloomberg . Look, i want to see the person who is most able to beat donald trump because i think he has been bad for our country. I believe joe biden is that person. One he is the most experienced. Two, he plays particularly well in the northwest, the northern part of the country, northern midwest, again, this election boils down to wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania. You have got a candidate, joe, from scranton, pennsylvania. He is someone the American People are comfortable with. I think the American People after all the drama of the Trump Administration are yearning for someone they can like and feel good about. I think joe biden is the most likeable candidate in american politics today. Connell steve westly, thank you for coming on. We appreciate it. Raises a lot of money for Democratic Candidates over the years. 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