They scarf up anything they can from those shelves. Were getting all of that. Meantime, get a gauge where we stand with this storm. Accuweather chief meteorologist bernie reno with the latest on its path. What are we looking at, bernie . Were looking at a strengthening hurricane, im afraid if it hits the Central Coast of florida, which is what we are forecasting it will be a catastrophic storm. All right. Throughout the morning weve been looking at a strengthening hurricane. Take a look, at this. Just in the last couple of frames, you are starting to see the eye pop in the middle of the cloud structure. Now, listen ive been doing this for 29 years. One thing i know an identifiable eye on the infrared satellite picture, you are looking at a major hurricane. What do i mean by that . Ooh talking about a hurricane of at least 120 mileanhour sustained winds. Hurricane center update had it at 110. I can tell you this is stronger than 110 miles per hour. Notice the movement. 24 hours ago, it was northwest at 12 to 13 miles an hour. That movement now is at 10 miles per hour. I want to show you satellite estimated radar. You can see the eye on this graphic. Not much in terms of impact on turks caicos, even bahamas. The problem, neil, this storm is out over the open waters of the atlantic where water temperatures are skyhigh, 84, 85 degrees fahrenheit. There is no wind sheer. Show you that in a second. With no interaction to land, there is nothing stopping this system from developing. I will show you the water vapor loop. This is frightening. I show you why. The reason why dorian was not strengthening t. It was getting dry air. That was going on the last 24 hours. Now what youre seeing, this dry air is pushed away from the storm in all quadrants. What does that mean . There is no more dry air coming into the storm. Also because youre getting this push away from all quadrants of the storm, this tells us there is no wind sheer or light winds in the upper part of the atmosphere. The slow something starting to occur now because it is this upper level low over the bahamas now that is pushing this to the northwest. This is a very unusual track. Usually storms move from west to east. This is to the northwest, because of this upper low. But that upper low is moving away. It is weakening. You know what will happen . The steering flow is also going to weaken. So dorian is going to be slowing as it pushes to the northwest. Then there will be a bending to the west. Right now, were thinking landfall, Central Coast of florida, West Palm Beach the space coast, late monday night, tuesday morning. Neil oh, by, thank you very much, bernie, appreciate it as always. In florida, all 67 counties in the Sunshine State are under emergency order. Florida Emergency Management director brian kuhn on that. Good to have you. Thank you for having me. Neil state of emergency order, all counties, 67 in florida are under that, what does that mean . That means that the state has authorized the State Government and local government to do everything they need to prepare for this storm. So it frees up their ability to make sure that all of the processes are in place, that all the goods and services they may need to get ready to respond to this storm are easily attainable. Neil you said that in motion. Is the next step they urge evacuation of coastal, vulnerable communities, which would be virtually all of them in florida, what would happen then . Thats right. Right now all of the local government age sys keeping close eye on the storm. How it will impact them. Theyre looking at evacuation plans. Looking at storm surge. Theyre trying to best serve citizens by getting them to place of safety. They will start with those most vulnerable, live along the coastlines. Those who live in lowlying areas, work in mobile homes. That is what everybody is doing, how best to make sure their citizens will be safe when this storms makes landfall. Neil always a dicey thing to predict, especially days out. Paths could change. The direction of all of could change. After all this was the same storm at that was supposed to hit puerto rico. Puerto ricans dodged it. What contingency plans do you make in the event that is strays by the state but goes further up north, carolinas, georgia, that sort of thing . Right now everybody from miami up to Nassau County on east coast of florida should pay close attention to it. Any of them are susceptible to the storm right now. As your forecaster earlier, there is potential it could go up into the carolinas. Potential to go up in the gulf of mexico, panhandle, depending where it makes the turn. Everybody in florida needs to pay close attention to it, considering how they will prepare themselves, family, business, community for impacts of the storm. As well as folks in georgia, florida, south carolina, north carolina. Either direct impacts of this storm, remnants of this storm. There will be tremendous rainfall and wind field when it gets up into those states. Neil it will stick around. It is not exactly a fastmoving storm. How does that play into whatever plans . That plays in tremendously. You know, with a fastmoving storm you get impacts, you start into the response and recovery. When you have a slow moving storm like this one, you will have a lot more rain build up. You will have lot more inland flooding. You will have a slower response time. So your firstresponders will have a delayed reaction to be able to get out there and check on people and clear the roads. The Power Companies will take a little bit longer to get out there, start checking outlines and polls poles. We have done a great job hardening those, the fact well lose power. We have to wait until the wind dies down before we check on them. Everything will be delayed. The rainfall rates, inland flooding will be worse and storm surge will be worse, because of slow movement of the storm once it hits the state. Neil youre an encyclopedia. Former florida Emergency Management director. Rick leventhal in delray beach where residents, not surprisingly are preparing. What is the latest from there, rick . Reporter theyre getting ready, lining up in every box store, every grocery store, gas station, topping off tanks, filling carts. Buying cases of water and buying sheets of fly wood and buying generators, whatever else they might need. The big question, neil as you have been talking about where is the thing going to hit . Nobody seems to know for sure. The storm has been unpredictable. There are, some agreement at least they think that it will hit between Central Florida or Palm Beach County where is center of that cone of uncertainty now. A lot of people could be impacted by this. A lot of people are trying to prepare in best ways they can. We talked into folks who packed into a home depot in north miami this morning. I just got to home depot. 6 00 a. M. , they just opened. I dont think they have much left. We came in for water and butane stove. Theyre all out. Wish me luck. This is potentially a multiday event where it will churn slowly across the state. That obviously creates a whole host of issues. Reporter neil, this thing is going to be very, very dangerous. If in fact it follows the forecasted paths, hits the florida coast as they say with category 4 with 140 mileperhour winds, we have seen firsthand what speeds can do to homes and businesses, trees, power lines. If its a slow moving storm, which they say it will be, that prolongs misery, prolongs heavy rains pounding already saturated ground, creating all sorts of flooding issues, knocking down trees, power lines. Millions of people could be in the dark, if it hits as hard as they say it will in the area it might. Neil you covered so many disasters, curious, what point do they pull the triggerevacuations . How close can they be to make that call . That is excellent question. That is a question for the government. You know, and in many cases weve seen that they waited too late to make that call. Neil right. But in this situation when you have such a wide area, you cant tell everyone to get out of town because i95 would be a parking lot. It would create even more problems for a lot of people. They have to get a better handle where it is going to be. I dont know, honestly neil, when that is going to be. Whether later tonight, sometimes tomorrow, they will have much better sense of this thing. Weve seen it make unpredictable turns before. I was down here for hurricane andrew in 1992. They were sure it would hit Fort Lauderdale and made a jog to the left, wound up in homestead. Pretty much was everyone out of position on that one. That could happen again. Neil even in this one in san juan couple days ago they were worried there. You never know. Rick, great reporting as always. Rick leventhal. Reporter thank you. Neil a lot of airlines allowing travelers to change flights into and out of florida for a penalty. You dont have to be in the course of the storm. Everything having to be with jets that have to be moved or not moved as a result of this. Grady trimble with the latest from chicago oy hair. Grady. Reporter neil, this is not a bad travel day looking at the boards. The flights to florida are on time. The flights from florida are the same. Whereas yesterday we were talking about sunday into monday landfall disrupting flights tomorrow and sunday, were not looking at that. Monday night, maybe even tuesday morning. So the flights into the weekend are not the issue. It is later. Weve been talking to people here who are flying out, despite that offer from all of these airlines, american, delta, jetblue, united, all Major Airlines offering travelers the opportunity to change their flights. Even cancel them without any fees. But we see people showing up here, getting on the plane, no problem. Including one gentleman i spoke, he is going down there to pack up his girlfriend to bring her out of harms way up here but theyre leaving some family down in florida. Lived there all of her life. She has seen it all. They have survived most of them. You know, major ones, im sorry. Of the she is not concerned. Theyre experienced. They know how to prepare, board up, pick up supplies. It is pretty much it. Reporter as of right now there are not any changes that Major Airlines announced to weekend flight schedules. As this thing gets closer, it will become inevitable, that lots of flights will be impacted by this, not just in florida, but with connections. There is delays all over the country when something of this magnitude hits. Neil . Neil exactly right. Grady, thank you very, very much. Grady in chicago on that. As grady pointed out here in the hub and spoke system with the Airline Industry right now, you could be in San Francisco and chicago not going anywhere near florida. Your flight would be affected by this or repositioned if they can reposition it by this because the beauty and convenience of our hub and spoke system it is supposed to cut down on delays, make things more efficient when you fly. In a perverse situation it complicates this, one hub is down, a couple of other speaks go down. Were on top of that, off corner of wall and broad. A lot of traders take the day off before a long Holiday Weekend that can exaggerate some activity that you see happening right now. A lot of that built on back and forth on trade, are talks still on . Yes. Are chinese still promising not to retaliate . Yes. We have worrisome economic news. Yes. After this. Thanks to you, we will. Aw, stop. This is why voya helps reach todays goals. All while helping you to and through retirement. Um, you guys are just going for a week, right . Yeah thats right. Can you help with these . Oh. Um, were more of the plan, invest and protect kind of help. Sorry, little paws, so. But have fun send a postcard voya. Helping you to and through retirement. To the wait did frowe just winners. Prouders everyone uses their phone differently. Thats why Xfinity Mobile lets you design your own data. Now you can share it between lines. Mix with unlimited, and switch it up at anytime so you only pay for what you need. Its a different kind of Wireless Network designed to save you money. Save up to 400 a year on your wireless bill. Plus get 250 back when you buy a new samsung note. Click, call or visit a store today. Neil all right. This is what got us really jumping this morning after the big runup yesterday. Overnight words from the Chinese Foreign ministry Effective Communications are continuing. Normally this is gobbledygook to me. One guy understands it perfectly is blake burman. Maybe why stocks were racing. I guess it was and encouraging develop men, right, blake . Reporter i guess. You have been spot on with this, neil over the last week. It is so tough to decipher what we should decipher, what we shouldnt decipher. Here is what we know. The president called into Brian Kilmeades radio show said there were talks continuing, quote, unquote, different level, different level was the phrase. Chinas Foreign Ministry responded to that, was asked about that today, this is how they described it, quote, what i can tell you is, first the economic and trade teams of china and the United States have always maintained effective communication. He is saying there has been communication, for both sides, for a while, weeks into months, they always talk back and forth. Sources though. This is important. Neil, sources have been telling us complicated puzzle, what potentially fits into all of this intermediaries. The u. S. Has big names in the private sector, were told, have been acting quote, unquote, intermediaries what that means, floating ideas back and forth one way described to me, or trial ballooning for example. Two names we have been told have acted as intermediaries for the u. S. Steve schwarzman, lefthand side of the screen, head of blackrock as you know, John Thornton, former head of goldman sachs, has extensive tights to china. It is unclear who is acting as an intermediary with the u. S. At this point in time. The treasury secretary earlier this week alluded to it. Listen. Vice premier liu he came out with a very significant statement and weve been communicating with intermediaries back and forth with them. Reporter you heard from the mnuchin, communicating with intermediaries. Talk at quote, unquote, differently level. Were learning from sources that steve schwarzman, John Thornton have been intermediaries on behalf of the u. S. You put the statement up there from china, theyre always talking and u. S. Says theyre always talking, once you start hearing about different level, you have to wonder, neil, if that is the potentially what the president is referring to. Neil . Neil gotcha, gotcha. Thank you very much. Reporter did we make sense of it . Neil no, what i admire about you, if you dont know you say you dont know. I generally dont admire that quality. You have to find a way reporter this china puzzle is intricate. I tell you that. Neil my goodness. Thank you very my friend, very much, blake burman at white house. Consumer sentiment, degree of the drop since 2012. At the lowest level couple years. People were seizing it, consumer going gangbuster, these are volatile numbers. Asking you about your mood, are you happy, are you not. I dont put this much stock in this data. I dont know who does, if my next guest does. Follow as lot of data, the concrete, less concrete. Fifth third bank chief economist strategist. Jeff, what do you make of the lets say the mood of people in this country, shoppers in this country, it is enact science, it is slipping do you agree . We dont read too much into Consumer Confidence surveys. They have notoriously nonpredictive power. What is more happening incomes in the United States. They continue to rise. That will drive Consumer Spending more than sentiment. Neil but you know, if you look at the conflicts of all the data, i follow very closely, most of it has been pretty good. We might not come off highs in some cases here. Most has been pretty positive. Im wondering whether that is a good backdrop for the markets . Certainly by comparison to any other economy on earth, i mean were doing okay . Well, ideally you want Business Investment and the consumer both heavily engaged. Were in a period because of the, all uncertainty, particularly around trade, perhaps about the upcoming election as well, where the Business Community has scaled back their capex, their investment for the future. Consumer is carrying the ball here. Consumer spending, interest in Spending Continues to be very good. To the degree confidence play as roll there, it may shift some spending away from bigticket items, more towards smaller items, small ticket luxuries. Neil your sense of this flattening versus inverted yield curve where we are flatter more than inverted, shorter term rates eclipsing longerterm rates, how long do they have to be inverted to get a guy like you worried . I think fair to say we take the sign already very seriously. Inversion of the 2 and 10 curve does precede recessions in postworld war ii history. But what is really important to consider is, how much time you have left. And hour view this time around is that the negative Interest Rates abroad have probably dragged down the 10year, to some degree. So inversion signal this year is likely to be particularly early and perhaps in a sense, premature. So were already incorporating it. It is something were keeping an eye on. It doesnt tell us there is recession right around the corner. Neil everyone seems to expect a decisional quarterpoint cut in Interest Rates in september. Are you in that camp . We are reluctantly. Were not very enthusiastic as you may know about the feds policy of doing this mini ease. We think it is not very productive policy. One that is fraught with some risks. I have to wonder what the fed thinks of their policy already. They