Predicted every last recession weighs in. Now to Edward Lawrence at the white house, on the trade front where things stand. What is going on there . Reporter looks like better than expected numbers coming out of china helping markets today. China says their exports have increased 3. 3 from june to july. Surprise with some with escalating trade tensions. Export numbers deficit from the United States has shrunk 2 billion from june to july. It is still a huge number, look at yeartodate. It is 168. 5 billion yeartodate. Also thursday, Chinas Central Bank made moves signaling future devaluing currency even though today theyre stablizing. Should the currency weaken too much that should cause Asian Countries to cut their Interest Rates even more. White house Economic AdvisorPeter Navarro down playing that this morning. Listen. The yuan has gone down 12 . We put on tariffs at 10 . The yuan goes down 12 . Theyre basically trying to offset the effect of the tariffs but it does have ripple effects but this is not, this is not something thats threatening to the Global Economy. Reporter still the raise to zero Interest Rates could have the effect of strengthening the dollar, making it more expensive from other countries to buy our products. The president tweeting about this morning. He said in a tweet some think he like as stronger dollar. He doesnt. He went on to blame the Federal Reserve for making the wrong moves, hurting American Companies trying to sell overseas. Some chinese experts believe that chinas move is to offset the impact of possibly additional tariffs that could be imposed on september 1st. Trade sources are telling us that china does believe that those tariffs of 10 on 300 billion of additional imports will go into effect on september 1st. Those sources also saying that china is preparing right now for those 10 tariffs to be 25 because they will refuse to buy u. S. Agriculture. Back to you, neil. Neil Edward Lawrence on white house. Real quick correction. I think we were showing you a wrong level on the 10year you might have seen before at 2 point something percent. That is not only reversal, that is a problem. The 10year now is around 1. 75 . Remember for a while it had gotten slightly below 1. 59 in this global freefall on Interest Rates. Were not out of the woods. That is still a very, very, low, low rate. Germany, france, some other countries are sporting negative rates. That has not changed. That is the Global Environment which we live. Where do we go right now . Get the read on trade front, especially on talk we might not get a trade deal at all before the president ial luck shun. Former secretary under barack obama, and lee spieckerman. Very happy to have you. Lee, first on impact if we dont, forget about the market impact, if we dont get a trade deal from the chinese, for whatever reason, then what . You know, it is, our client have told us time and time again that the rollercoaster ride that were on is disruptive to their longterm business planning. Tariffs are a tax. Tariffs, especially when you look at our clients who are manufacturers, who source many of their inputs from china, you know, their manufacturing process will be more expensive. They will shift to third countries. They are not coming back to the u. S. The winner here will be vietnam and other countries in Southeast Asia where the cost of manufacturing is lower. I think that this is corrosive to market confidence. It is corrosive as weve seen with global markets. It is something that we must end at sooner than later so that businesses can begin to do longterm planning and investment which creates jobs and maintains jobs in this country. Neil lee, you could flip it around, saying a lot of businesses made alternative arrangements. That changed the Playing Field no matter what happens with the deal, that they found alternatives to china. That they sort of cushioned themselves in the case this were to drag on and it will be to chinas detriment, not ours, what do you think . Absolutely, neil. We have nearly a 400 billiondollar trade deficit with china. They export to us almost five times what we export to them. Obviously any type of retaliatory trade activity will enure to our benefit and be detrimental to china. Nicole was born in detroit. She has seen firsthand how detroit, baltimore, philadelphia, cleveland, other once bustling Manufacturing Centers in the United States were ravaged by the horrific trade deals were made. We a lot of 10 or more of our middle class over the last 20 years. The overwhelming reason for that the deindustrialization of the industrial heartland of the United States. In terms of these trade agreements not having a trade agreement with china, that would be great because you know what . China cheats. China cheats. Those trade agreements are not worth the paper theyre written on because they are unenforceable. What i endorsed we have a uniform trade tariff, uniform import tariff on all goods imports into this country. That is easy to enforce. Something our country has a great deal of experience with. We built the mightiest economy and highest standard of living in Human History on tariffs through most of our history. So we know how to collect tariffs. That would be a boon to manufacturing and as far as importing components, instead of going to third countries like vietnam, that should come back to the u. S. If we have a tariff on all imported components, whether theyre from vietnam, china, germany or any country, that will facilitate that happening. We have got to redomesticate american manufacturing. We have to redomesticate our supply chain. Yes we can bring a lot of that, if not all of that components goods manufacturing to the u. S. It will take a little time. Neil i dont know time is on the side here but, ambassador, one thing, the chinese are all but admitting they can manipulate their currency still taking offense to being called a currency manipulate when they tried to finesse a stable yuan. I deal with that with you. We had to deal with this, as president obama, as did many of your predecessors, the same china plays currency rigging games. I suspect no matter what deal is scored they will continue doing so. Do you worry about that . I do. Currency manipulation is a problem, it is distorttive to global markets. The irony the trade war is putting, china some respects theyre propping up their currency somewhat because as weve seen in reports chinas economy is suffering. I do agree with lee on that, but i have to say it is important to remember that supply chains are integrated in the u. S. The taxes are, tariffs are taxes, and when you look at 300 billion of products may be subject to 10 tariff come september 1st, that will cut into u. S. Consumers pockets. The very people that President Trump is trying to support are the people who are going to be hurt by this. This is cell phones. This is neil lee, do you buy that . That the very people longer term this lee and i will have no. Neil lee that is the feeling all of sudden. Will tell you why. Tariffs are taxes. Ill tell you why. Neil go ahead. I agree with nicole that tariffs are taxes but that was the tax revenue that provided vast majority of our federal revenue up until well into the 20th century. I would rather have tariffs as taxes than income taxes. We can make the trump middle income tax cuts permanent if we had a 15 tariff on all imported goods. Just a 15 import on chinese imports would give us 80, over 80 billion a year. Neil that might be fine. Im sorry. Lee, just get to the point here. It would cost 50 billion to make the middle income tax permanent. Neil i wish we had more time. You didnt answer my question. Well follow up on this story. I do want to follow up on this, whether youre for a tariff on said country at a said time, really escapes the meaning what is happening right now. Right now the feeling seems to be there is going to be, in fact on the consumer, sooner rather than later. Whether the consumer is prepared for that, particularly the latest wave, is going to hit them, since mostly consumer items tariffs kick in on september 1. That is one of the reasons why this slowdown you hear a great deal you talk about here in the United States is so pronounced. How low do we go, what does it mean for the markets and everywhere . Jack mcintyre with us. What do you think, jack . Were rebounding a little bit today, a slight backup in yield. I didnt think the day would come saying 1. 75 sounds like a nice bounceback, but it is what it is. What do you think . I will not read too much into todays price action because i dont think anything has changed. Obviously bonds had a huge rally. We need to kind of consolidate. There will be profittaking. We have a 30year auction in about an hour in here. So the market kind of building in a concession. Im, i still like treasurys. I think yields are heading lowers but might be we need another catalyst and the catalyst could be that we actually start to see weakness in the u. S. Labor market. Until that happens, we might not see another big move lower in treasurys. Neil you know treasury yields. Neil i get it, is there a level which you say 1. 75 on the 10year is one thing, negative Interest Rates on the extreme end what is happening with germany, france which is quite another thing but i mean we dont have a lot of wiggle room globally so then what . You raise a great point because i dont think there is a lot of what i kind of view monetary ammunition globally. Rates are low. They have had to go negative. We havent seen the response yet from a positive Economic Growth standpoint to those negative rates. I look at treasurys, i dont think treasury yields will go negative but there is a gravitational pull lower from those countries that have negative yields. Were up to 14 trilliondollar u. S. Equivalent of negative yielding bonds. The u. S. Is not immune to that well see yields drift lower. One other quick point, i think yields can go lower until they affect some type of change. So in the u. S. These low treasury yields will mean lower mortgages. If the worlds healing, our u. S. Is healing housing should do better. If it doesnt, it means yields will go even lower. Neil how much lower . Well, okay, so you have got a Global Economy challenged, low inflation, u. S. China trade. So i think yields can go, 10year yields can go towards that 1 . It will not be a Straight Line but i dont see why they cant go to 1 , if youve got treasury or german bund yields going to minus 80 basis points. Neil interesting, holy cow. Thank you, i think, all right. Jack, thank you very much. You be well. Well see what happens with all of that. Were looking at all these battles back and forth political statements over what a company is doing, but let me ask conservatives out there, conservatives, do you like ben jerrys ice cream . Do you care they give to liberal causes like Bernie Sanders . Probably not. Doesnt matter to you. So on the left the push to go after steve ross, the guy behind equinox fitness clubs and soulcycle clubs he is giving to donald trump. Now does that make you more inclined, less inclined to go to his establishment or to accept a boycott . What is the difference between ice cream made by people on the left and operations owned by a guy on the right . This is over the top. Hey im bill slowsky jr. , i live on my own now ive got xfinity, because i like to live life in the fast lane. Unlike my parents. You rambling about xfinity again . Youre so cute when you get excited. Anyways. Ive got their app right here, i can troubleshoot. I can schedule a time for them to call me back, its great you have our number programmed in . Ya i dont even know your phone anymore. Excuse me . what . I dont know your phone number. Aw well. He doesnt know our phone number you have our fax number, obviously. Todays xfinity service. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Ill pass. Neil how is this for a little bit of pressure . Equinox and soulcycle facing boycott over investor steve rosss ties to President Trump doing a fundraiser this weekend. Patrice lee onwuka, we have david burn steen and constitutional lawyer gem ma ellis reeves. I generally think boycotts are risky from the left and right. I love ben jerrys. It would have be to a crane to claw me away from chunky monkey, stop buying their product, no matter who they are giving money to. Enough already. Especially when you look at soulcycle having a passive investor, people are willing to boycott. This is a free country. We all have political beliefs. We can support any candidate. Well boycott your product because you support a particularly president ial candidate, that is absolutely ridiculous. Im a conservative goes to starbucks. People told me for years you need to boycott neil riddle wrapped in a conundrum. That is what my husband says. Just because there are certain things that worth standing up for but this i dont think is one of them because weve seen that boycotts work. Look at effect of chickfila. When the left was calling for boycott, that then had the supporters going in, were going to support this company because we believe in their values. But in this country everyone can stand up for what they believe in and they can have their message and so people want to boycott, thats fine. Do i think it is effective . Absolutely not. But people have the right to support their political candidates. I think especially the difference here is that soulcycle said in their statement, we dont condone this, were not holding this event. For people to boycott them one of their passive investors is supporting President Trump neil he is the head guy. He doesnt speak for the company. Exactly. Neil having said that, david, im worried about, maybe you are, when you look at the Democratic Party that is big on inclusion, big on being open to all points of view, ideas, doesnt this smack of hip Proctor Gamble chrissie . It is problematic, youre either for everyone speaking values or for a certain set of values, right . I think the issue here is that, you know, and in particular case equinox and soulcycle are known for, they have a lot of lgbtq members, they have a lot of affinity and sponsor of pride. Insults to them because it represents a good part of their base. They have to say something. Everybody has to do damage control on everything. I hope that the president ial candidates dont get involve in this. This seems to be a fine thing for people to talk about on social media. My hope is that people can see this is issue that will stay here, we wont be talking about this by the end of the week. Neil sure we will. Patrice, help me with this. I have seen it in my profession certain hosts are boycotted or no one is going to watch their show, urge viewers to boycott products advertised on the show. I have seen it on the right, on the left. You have to calm down. Life is short. Stop it. But the other issue is, if you dont want to watch that particular personality, you dont have to. You have something called a remote control, move on. But i do think it is going to put the fear of god into companies in general for fear of offending anyone on the right, for fear of offending anyone on the left, just to cater to whatever the prevailing view is at the time and i think that is slippery slope. Your thoughts . I will counter, jenna made. I actually think it could be damaging if people actually believe it. Look at ivanka trump brand. She had a loyal strong following, loyal strong brand. That has all but disappeared. The left turned out the machine against her Closing Company as soon as her father became president. I dont think this will have effect on soulcycle, basically with Companies Like peloton. They are trying to do as much damage as possible to insure that doesnt happen. Yes, it could become a slippery slope every company is scared like somebody like Chrissy Teigen sure social media patrols against them. Neil what i worry about, guys, i was one that used ben jerrys analogy here, kind of funny if youre one of these facilities, especially the equinox fitness and youre eating ben jerrys ice cream while youre on it but i think it gets past reality here, you know . Everyone is free to their own political point of view, but when you extend it, im going to economically try to destroy them because of that, that gets a little dangerous. That is, castro coming out and doxxing some of trump donors, this is, and saying specifically on msnbc, that it is for the intent so people think twice before donating to President Trump. Neil didnt he reveal one of his own people. He did, which is super ironic. Neil i think that is castro calling david right now. What do you think of that, david . Does it go too far . I think the other thing the companies have to be willing to stand up. We can talk about the role of citizens in this, also i think a lot of companies have been very quick to cave. A lot of people would find their business is just fine. Im a member of equinox. It has a very loyal neil ive seen you. It has a loyal following. So does soulcycle, they will not be destroyed by Something Like this. Neil i dont know. In this city that is so bad, when we have a culture that is saying were going to punish you for your political beliefs and try to silence you, what castro is doing. That is not america. Weve also done a lot to divide these things. Whole foods in the last election cycle. Whole foods is for democrats and other supermarkets are for republicans. Neil that is accurate. But, there has been a push, more and more people, more and more companies are focused being values aligned. That is important to them. But they have to be consistent what those values are. Neil there is a difference between the company and guy runs i can understand easily get blurred. Patrice, where is this going