Ways of look at this, if not more. There are going to be those who say the president lost deterrence, the iranians see they can continue to walk all over him and theyll continue to escalate tensions with some sense of comfort that perhaps the president doesnt have the stomach for conflict. There is another way of looking at this, however. And that is that the United States can use this to galvanize support from the europeans and perhaps from other places around the world to show the International Community that iran is still aggressive, that iran is deserving of the sanctions that we have on them right now, and these sanctions, lets go very clear, are still taking a bite out of the iranian economy, the political and economic isolation is working. So we still have a plan thats been in place by the Trump Administration and it looks right now as if were set to double down on that and perhaps even to recruit others to the cause. Paul there are two interpretations you offered us. Which one do you side with . I think theres a bit of truth in both. I certainly think the iranians right now may see this as a green light and that the president yet be forced to respond with force. Right now he doesnt have to. Hes taking his time. It doesnt mean he couldnt attack tomorrow or next week if he sees an opportunity. Were on no timetable here. So even though hes going to come under fire for having lost deterrence, he still has that ability. But i do see an opportunity right now that by not attacking we could still recruit others in this Important Campaign of isolating iran, again, its working. We can see that theyre in deep trouble right now. Their currency is dropping, unemployment is rising, and theyre potentially going to see a need to come to the negotiating table. Paul take us through what you think iranian strategy here is. As i look at it, its one of escalation here, militarily. Now they want to retain deniabilities. You have the huthis firing missiles. Theyve done something on the oil terminals. Theyve gone after air tankers. They shot down an unarmed american drone which the u. S. Insists was in international waters. They seems to be a calculated gamble that they can escalate tensions that will somehow get them off the hook on the sanctions. Is that what the strategy is . It could be. I think its important to establish the history here, which is that iran for 40 years has been carrying out violence against the United States and our interests. Just in iraq and afghanistan, weve seen iran carry out asymmetric attacks, which have actually cost the lives of more than 600 american servicemen. So this is an extension of what weve been seeing by the iranians for quite some time. The he question that i would ask now paul this is an escalation. Theres no question. They dont shoot down unarmed American Drones every day in international waters. Thats what they did this week. Thats right. Theyre also challenging what weve been doing, which is ensuring the freedom of navigation in the persian gulf and what thats doing is its potentially Setting Oil Prices higher, its making insurance more difficult to obtain. So theyre trying to i think make it more difficult for the United States to maintain the leverage that we have in the gulf and perhaps get us to stand down on some of these sanctions. In the meantime, threatening an asymmetric conflict that could really ex act a toll on the United States. Were seeing a United States that is treading carefully and, again, still leaving all of our options open, which, again, i dont think that weve lost anything so far but certainly way could see the iranians try to push things further. Paul if that happens, seems to me theres going to be a moment of truth sooner or later. As to your point for President Trump. As for the europeans coming around, i agree that would be a good outcome here, Good Progress but those countries are going to meet with china, iran and russia soon to see if they can salvage the nuclear accord. So instead of moving towards President Trump, in fact theyre trying to salvage what the president has already gotten out of. Its interesting, youre absolutely correct but on the other hand we actually saw the germans come out and verify the u. S. Intelligence, which point todd the iranians being responsible for attacks on some of those vessels in the gulf of oman and we also have really interestingly next week a summit between the National Security advisors of russia, the United States and israel, where theyre going to be talking undoubtedly about iran and what the next steps are. Not only about getting them out of syria or potentially trying to, but the broader challenge that iran pose toss the region poses to the region. Paul do you see any sign that the iranians are going to take up President Trumps offer to come to the table and actually talk to renegotiate the terms of the nuclear deal . Look, its hard to imagine that they will. And what the iranians have said now very clearly is that all of this rests on the Supreme Leader of iran. For all the talk about moderates or about some sort of imperfect democracy inside iran, we know thats all not true. It all rests on this one man who is deeply idealogical and deeply antiamerican and has said he doesnt wish to engage with the United States after the unraveling of the joint comprehensive plan of action, the iran deal of 2015. Paul if he doesnt do it, they dont move. So far, he doesnt seem to have any intention of doing that. Jonathan, thank you for being with us. Pleasure. Paul when we come back, amid rising global tensions, President Trump makes his reelection pitch. Will the themes he laid out in this Weeks Campaign kickoff be enough to win him a second term . Our panel weighs in, next. Our magnificent first lady, melania, thank you. Thats gonna be a good one. , playing did you know that nationwide has customized Small Business insurance . Huhuh. Maybe thats a song. Yeah, maybe. peyton did you know nationwide is americas 1 provider of pet insurance, farms, and ranches . Now thats a song. Yeah, maybe. Oh, thats gold right there. Did you know that nationwide has an interactive retirement planner . music stops are we there yet . nationwide jingle instateoftheartn Technology Makes it brilliant. The visionary lexus nx. Lease the 2019 nx 300 for 359 month for 36 months. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. At comcast, we didnt build the nations largest gigspeed network just to make businesses run faster. We built it to help them go beyond. Because beyond risk. Welcome to the neighborhood, guys. There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. I have news for democrats who want to return us to the bitter failures and betrayals of the past. We are not going back. Were going on to victory. Paul that was President Trump tuesday, kicking off his campaign for a second term at a rally in orlando, florida, the president leaning on familiar themes as he launched his reelection bid, including his attack on democrats and Hillary Clinton. Will that be enough to return him to the white house in 2020 . Lets bring in our panel, wall street journal come u columnistn henninger, and kyle peter sensed allysia finley. Let me ask you about iran. What do you make of the president s standdown on the military strike . Well, its very strange, i think in one respect, paul, which is that where we are now with iran i think was entirely predictable, certainly after the United States moved that Aircraft Carrier group into the gulf on the basis of intel intelligence that iran was going to do something imminently. It was entirely possible it would have escalated to this point. The military, National Security agency would have had to start thinking about this. It was predictable after the president pulled out of the iran nuclear deal. This was going somewhere and the iranians were going to produce a strategy to try to get the u. S. To back down from that nuclear deal, so i would assume the pentagon has an idea now of what they might do at this point in time. Paul seems to me that it depends a lot how this plays out with iran, if iran decides to escalate and they interpret this as a sign of weakness on the president of the United States, then the president s going to be forced down the road maybe even a bigger military action. On the other hand, if they decide okay, well negotiate, renegotiate, then the president may have this might look like a decision that is at least salvageable but, boy, when a president calls off a military strike in midair, that is some that is a big, big deal. President trump has Big Decisions to make now. Paul all right. Lets turn to the reelection theme. You heard the speech, allysia. What do you think his team for reelection is . Whats his argument . Well, hes trying to relitigate 2016. I think this is one thing he and democrats can agree on. His argument is basically keep america great. Hes trying to run on the economy, but he hasnt really provided a second term agenda which i think is going to be a problem. Paul litigating 2016, thats usually not a winning issue for 2020, for the next election. Youre saying hes got to have an agenda in the next hes going to have to develop one to be able to move forward. Right. Hes not a policy wonk but he could put some poe sal some prot there, fix obamacare, he could talk about how he wants to finalize the china deal if its not done by then. Of course, he kind of walks into the trap there, well, why werent you able to get china deal done. Paul the other theme, kyle, the president really struck me with, hes saying to the voters democrats are going to take you off the cliff, theyre so extreme now. Socialists and so on, that you just cant afford to go there. But thats a risk because it means you have to have a candidate who l validate valida. Bernie sanders would do that. Maybe Elizabeth Warren would do that but maybe not joe biden. Its understandable why the president is pitching his message that way right now because he doesnt have an opponent. Next week were going to get the first democratic debate, 20 democrats up on the stage and so the president can still talk about how democrats are dangerous and unhinged an afflicted with an ide idealodgel callogicalsickness. If its bernie, it might work. If its joe buy depositio biden. President trumps nickname for joe biden i is sleepy joe. Whats wrong with being sleepy . Paul President Trump mentions Hillary Clinton all the time. Sooner or later hes got to get rid of that, doesnt he . I think so. Lets give him the fact that 2016 was an extraordinary unpredicted victory, it was a big achievement for him and he cherishes it. Hes the president four years later. You look at the orlando audience, the intensity of their support for the president is overwhelming. Id assume hes got 43 of the electorate behind him, Something Like that. You cant win a president ial election with 43 of the vote. He somehow has to find a way to pull in 7, 8 of the electorate out there who might be independents, women, suburban women. Hes got to make an argument to them, not merely to the people in those rallies who put him across in 2016. Paul one of the things thats interesting about the speech, ali sharks i thought was the president stressing cultural issues, he mentioned partial birth abortion, saying the democrats are radical on that. Hes going to stress immigration, its obviously. He did talk about the economy a lot but this is also going to be election where cultural themes are really coming to the fore. I think thats right, especially in places like wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, where he won. There were cultural issues, the Supreme Court nomination was at stake and that probably put him over the finish line, lets be honest. Paul hes going to want to stress that. He went on judges for a long time on that speech. The fundamental challenge, you cant forget that Hillary Clinton won almost 3 million more votes in 2016 than donald trump did. The 2020 nominee for the democrats doesnt have to do that much better. They just have to move some of the voters over the state borders. Trumps approval is negative 13 in wisconsin. He will have a tough time turning that around, i think. Paul hes got do that, win some of the suburban women back. When we come back, 16 months from the 2020 president ial election, a closer look at where President Trump stands in the poll as he kicks off his poll as he kicks off his for people 50 and older colat average risk. Ing honey have you seen my glasses . Ive always had a knack for finding things. Colon cancer, to be exact. And i find it noninvasively. No need for time off or special prep. It all starts here. You collect your sample, and cologuard uses the dna in your stool to find 92 of colon cancers. You can always count on me to know where to look. 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There is reward. Beyond work and life. Who else could he be . There is the moment. Beyond technology. There is human ingenuity. Every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected, to do the extraordinary. Take your business beyond. Our economy is the envy of the world, perhaps the greatest economy weve had in the history of our country. And as long as you keep this team in place, we have a tremendous way to go. Our future has never, ever looked brighter or sharper. The fact is, the American Dream is back. Its bigger and better and stronger than ever before. Paul that was President Trump tuesday in orlando, touting the economy as he made his case for reelection. So where does he stand, some 16 months before election day in 2020 . Lets ask republican pollster, eed goez. Great to see you again. Lets take a step back, take a look at where you think the president is now. Whats his standing for reelection . Theres two types of models out there, one is an economic model or series of economic models, all which predict hell be reelected. The other are the political models, based more on polling and some other factors, all which predict he will lose. So i think right now its kind of too early to tell. Certainly his rankings that he gets on the economy from a variety of different voter groups, majority of americans is very, very positive. If he keeps the focus on the economy. Paul this is the fascinating thing. You look at the disconnect between his Approval Rating on the economy, which is above 50 , in nearly every survey now and you look at his overall Approval Rating and the average polls i see, its 44 , some 43, a little lower. How do you explain that disconnect . Well, the thing to also look at is favorability index which is his favorable, unfavorable rating, which quite frankly has been that 55 unfavorable since the day he announced. It was a 55 the day he was elected, 55 the day he was sworn in and 55 today. What you get is there is a group of voters, some of which like what hes doing policywise, particularly on the economic, but dont like his persona and they put a priority on that. And theres some that put a priority they dont like his persona but they like what hes doing policywise and they put a priority there and thats where you get the split. Paul so what that suggests is that the economy is not going to be the dominant issue in the election and even if it continues to be quite strong, some of the president s character issues are going to come to the fore. Well, that certainly would be the case if he doesnt focus on the economy but the more he focuses on the economy and kind of moves away from the kind of tweets of the day and some of the things he does on other issues, you know, hes always shown an interest in keeping his base strong which is important. Not the Republican Base but the trump base which runs about 32, 33 . That was his advantage in 2016 over Hillary Clinton that did not have intensity in her favorable base. But at the end of the day, and especially one of the numbers i look at closely is the gender gap, which you get very poor ratings with some of the key groups of women, married white women, white women overall but when you look at where they give him a rating on the economy, theyre in the high 50s, low 60s. So they dont like his persona. They do like his policies on the economy. He needs to show that as the import