Coming up this morning. Took me a taco about it, Dagen Mcdowell, rose clip ceo managing partner mike murphy and twc managing partner Mitch Rochelle. Happy valentines day. Thank you for this. So sweet of you. Its a more important day for us. The cpi day. So excited about inflation day. Maria so worried, et cetera. All this comes back to a market improving. I dont have a problem. If the overall economy is improving, the market cannot fluctuations but a good thing overall. Dagen let me be the worrywart. Maria of course we want to get the Consumer Price index data to see how bad Inflationary Pressure is close to the third consecutive day. 200 points with another wild wind up trading despite gains at the close. The dow and s p 500 remain on pace. Worst month since august 2015. Nasa but the biggest monthly decline since january 2016. Mike murphy, what is your take . A little nervous. Nice rally from a three day rally, but its important to find that cpi. Its a basket of goods come in the price you pay for a basket of goods. If the price of that is going up, then the market feels that made the prices of goods are going up, therefore people wont have as much spending power and batteries will go higher and market selloff. For the last several years, weve been talking here on this program any better than 2 gdp growth. We need the economy to improve. With an improving economy you often get inflation. The question is which one is going faster. And what comes with it because the fed will raise rates and whether they raised three or four times in 2018 has a major negative impact on the market. If we see for, i dont know. Dagen Bond Investors seem to think its for. This also goes back to see this and it totally. Youve heard for major corporations who are very concerned about rising prices whether its on food, metals, other materials, ford, in the most recent quarter, food prices were up 3 . So it is percolating. There you have to factor in people anticipating higher inflation if they start changing their behavior. One thing that should the markets up so much, the market decline since february 1st, the 2. 9 fastest wage growth since 2009, we want that to happen and however, he raises the specter of higher inflation and that could have some longerterm rates even higher. A thousand products in goods and services. Not all of them impacted by wage. And that often with the more causeandeffect when the wage goes up. We should keep an eye on that as well. Obviously really important. The journal reported that u. S. Regulators looking into manipulation of the fear index. Top story this morning the volatility index. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority focusing on whether traders place bets on options to influence prices for vix future is good for the longest time there was no volatility. Now the volatility and now theres this pro. I hope it drives individual investors out of the volatility related products. We cite couple of sharp volatility products that blew up and essentially shut down, that people lost billions of dollars essentially because they were betting on something they didnt understand. You can talk about if you read the disclosure documents for. Its pretty doggone clear the risk you are taking by the Volatility Exchange traded products. I hope this drives people out. This is worse than a coin flip. Maybe it is rigged, but your trading against individuals and institutions who are a lot more powerful. Is steady and out it did all of his victory daytrading product. The universe on a daytoday basis. If you held it over time, you are guaranteed to lose money over time because it was based on a futures Contract Price the same way as the underlying insecurity. Maria the resample up is the future is based off of cat training from 4 00 to 4 15. They essentially after the regular stock market closed they lost all their money. One thing that costs investor hundreds of millions of dollars in losses every month because theres some identified crimes. Hes obviously manipulating them, urging regulators to take a look. Most of these products are professionals. In 2009, where the regulators then . Writer beware. If you want greater regulation, wheres Elizabeth Warren and her Consumer Financial protection board . Maria regulators are always behind. You can never give regulators in place to understand products on wall street. When this came out in 2009, it was in reaction to 2008, so its a way to give not only professionals, the Retail Investors away to bat with volatility of the Previous Year but it ended up ending really badly. By the way, not just the vix, not just the cpi. What is interesting is the National Retail federation who has a forecast very bullish on the retail ahead and theyre also more bullish. We will have more and more good data in the market may or may not react people expect. I watch the headlines and im not necessarily out there looking for bad news, we started this year with two major worries about the stock market inflation and Interest Rates and the Federal Reserve making a mistake in going to a trade war. Headline in the wall street journal, trump malls foreign steel. Go do Something Else on top of the solar panels. Trade do we spoke to wilbur ross then i said specifically, as aluminum and steel of next . He said bottomline comest dealmakers internationally have been dumping steel of this country for years to wilbur ross has been on the other side of that. So aluminum and steel are next. Is a policy mistake if they do anything to drive up prices at a time where inflation is a worry picking up in this country. Also in the u. S. Household because inflation, much higher Interest Rates. Trillion dollars deficit in u. S. Household shouldering a record amount of debt in 2017. I love dagen. I kind of disagree with that point. Listen to the steelmakers, whats been happening for years is chinese steel in china they take our steel and put a huge markup on it. But they take their steel in a dump it. If you have a steel company, maria like wilbur ross was. We just wanted fair. If you pay 10 tariff on our steel in your country, will put down 11, but a 10 tariff year. Trade your reciprocal tax . Shes not going to allow cheap products to come and get dumped in this country. Hes not. Dagen my point is whether the justification is fair or not for these terrorists, it could have a major market impact. Congress pushing back saying we dont see inflation. Yesterday i sat down for an exclusive interview with paul ryan. He weighed in on everything from entitlement reform and also inflation. They should be normalizing by the way. The fed has been carrying all of the water. Blues, easy money because we had horrible fiscal policy couple over regulation, higher taxes. We are getting regulatory relief, tax reform Long Time Coming and the fiscal policy authorities are taking over the work of growth in the economy so they dont have to do that so we can start normalizing Interest Rates. We want to have rates be normalized. That is why the biggest driver of it is health care entitlements. That is why one of the biggest casualties of the bill passing was not Getting Health Care entitlement reform. That is why we can never give up reforming health care because if you Reform Health care and take care of the structural drivers have a dad like medicare and medicaid. Maria he kept going back to taking care of the structural drivers of the debt. I said, mitch, that is not enough for the markets. You cant just say it. The growing deficit is on the minds of everybody. Not just politicians, not just the elect to. They are very focused on the growing deficit. Trade do they just blew it out. Republicans both adept to say. 300 billion in additional spending setting a new baseline and sending us on the path of 1 trillion annual deficits as far as i can see. Yes, awesome that they did tax reform. Awesome that they are cutting regulations, but we are so far into this bull market, they might not be worried about it. Again, that was a mistake. Republicans made a mistake without spending plan. Maria the twoyear spending plan. Now we talk about the benefits of the tax package. And now because we are actually seemed pretty good growth and expectations of good growth, theres some poking into this tax. Do they need more stimulus into an economy already growing . Probably because after that stimulus you want more stimulus. That was the issue. Right. An economy heating up because you reform taxes, then you put in place more deficit spending. Thats what doesnt make sense. Ipad speaker ryan made a good point would you estimate question he said these are onetime things we have to give in for. The growth will be ongoing, but to make a deal we have to give in on these two things. If its one time it plays out as he laid it out to you. One time this time. Dagen is not one time. Its Community Health centers, billion more in health care, abstinence, 150 million, a boost to spending. Maria why did they throw that in there . Dagen the conservative religious rights. They had to give money to the military. 20 billion in Infrastructure Spending in President Trump wants 10 times that. Dagen youve got to pay the piper at some point. That the tenyear number. This was 20 billion a twoyear budget. We will take a break when they come back here tragedy on mount hood. One climber loses his life and several others are rescued after being stranded during a trek to the summit. Pictures coming out this morning. The snow boarders but they they going to victory at the olympics. Back in a minute. Oh, thats lovely. So graceful. The corkscrew spin, flawless. His signature move, the flying dutchman. Poetry in motion. And there it is, the baby bird. Breathtaking. A sumo wrestler figure skating . Surprising. Whats not surprising . How much money heather saved by switching to geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more. A trip back to the dthe doctors office, mean just for a shot. But why go back there, when you can stay home with Neulasta Onpro . Strong chemo can put you at risk of serious infection. Neulasta helps reduce infection risk by boosting your white blood cell count, which strengthens your immune system. In a key study, neulasta reduced the risk of infection from 17 to 1 , a 94 decrease. Applied the day of chemo, Neulasta Onpro is designed to deliver neulasta the next day. Neulasta is for certain Cancer Patients receiving strong chemotherapy. Do not take neulasta if youre allergic to neulasta or Neupogen Filgrastim . 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Right now during the ultimate sleep number event, save 50 on the ultimate limited edition bed with adjustable comfort on both sides. Ends soon. Visit sleepnumber. Com for a store near you. Train to a fall on the tallest mountain. Cheryl casone with details there. Good morning to you. He climber died after falling 1000 feet and several others had to be rescued all happening im one of the most dangerous mountains in the country. They encountered tumbling rocks and falling ice after weather conditions turned treacherous. The National Guard airlifted and pronounced dead when he arrived at the hospital. Apple ceo tim cook leaving investors didnt win when it to future dividend hike. Could say hes not a fan of the special dividends, but increasing the dividend is something they are committed to do. The new campus by the way, apple shares are trading slightly higher in the premarket. Chipotle has a new ceo. Taco bell chief executive brian nickel hoping the fast food veteran can revive the struggling mexican food chain which has had a number of food safety problems and theyve also seen a decline in customer visits. They affront taco bell for three years, made it the most successful portfolio we should add. Also pizza hut, kfc. It would take over for cofounder and chipotle shares have lost nearly 40 of their value over the past year. As christians around the world observe ash wednesday, abcs the view decided to mock Vice President mike pence face. I want one thing to talk to jesus. Its another thing when jesus talks to you. Maria they decided to beat up on pence after the former white house staffer, with amendments that on the show big rather believes that jesus speaks directly to hand, maria. Shes been on that show really bashing the president as well. Trade do what is she know about mike pence by the way . I dont even believe her. Dagen why are we still talking about amoroso . Can we stop writing about her shenanigans . Can we stop talking about whatever she thinks about the president and the Vice President . Why was she working in the white house in the first place . Again, she would send her way by john kelly. Again, a man who has what every think about what is going on with rob porter. Esf border in the white house. Which is why people would not see him leave. I dont thought there were mistakes made in terms of rob porter and whether his security clearance was in place soon enough. The people do not want to see john kelly stepping out. Train to the wall street journal has an editorial about that today. A very hot issue, but they say the people who want john kelly uttered the people who want dysfunction in the white house, disorder in the white house and i think that may be some changes are made, but john kelly. Maria we are going to talk about that in an hour. First, big story in the journal and leading the way. How will the record rise affect demand. 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Leaving every competitor, threat and challenge outmaneuvered. Comcast business outmaneuver. Maria take a look at where it is. Dp Nancy Rochelle companies turn on a record rates. The report publisher, stephen short. Good to see you. We were just reading the journal story that output is so strong, there are questions if its going to meet demand. Energy observers addressing could overwhelm global demand. What is your take . Absolutely am on board without peer production is at record highs and will continue to rise. We have hedges by producing companies at record highs hedging this rally since the fall. We also have a strong correlation in counts and the rise in oil prices giving the star prize in oil prices over the last six months and will continue to climb well into the summer. Absolutely, supply should outweigh demand. Keep in mind that steve, mike murphy. We are talking a lot about inflation and the price of goods going. Is there a scenario where you see strong numbers from the economy, numbers that are so strong that we push back through versus 70 a barrel . That is indeed a possibility, mike. I dont think well stay up there long enough. Demand elasticity will remain strong at 7 a barrel, so i certainly wouldnt rule it out. I think i was here last week, the high 60s is the top of the market. Having the producer wants oil prices have much higher because all that does is invite more substitutes in the market.