Soldiers to the war against ukraine and in general, what is known about the Russian Forces at the front, this is what bbc viewer pavlo oksyonov says about it. I think, i dont think, that mobilizing 300,000 people literally in less than two months is unrealistic. The russian mobilization system will not cope with this, although it has been preparing for this for the past two years. The mobilization that took place in the fall of 22 showed that this a very difficult matter. Any mobilization system has a certain maximum. Capacity, but simply to take 300 thousand civilian men, put them in some military uniform, or even without military uniform and send them to a camp, this does not mean mobilizing, you have to create some combatready units from them, so i think that 3000 is the figure is too large, there are also political concerns, many commentators have said that in recent months and even years since the 22nd year, after that, i want to unofficially, but in fact the first a wave of mobilization. Russia carried out covert mobilization, trying not to overload Public Opinion with information that people were being taken to the front. If this is done now in some kind of emergency mode, then i am not sure that the russian authorities will take such a step without fearing some kind of reaction in russian society, that is, it is theoretically possible to take 300,000 men and place them in some military camps, but it is not means that units of 300,000 soldiers will be formed from them. They. Will have to undergo training and they must will undergo some kind of combat adjustment, they will have to be made into a military unit, but the russian command would probably like to have some combatready units consisting of mobilized. If the russian authorities take a responsible approach to equipping the units at the front, then these mobilized people, if they were collected by june, could be at the front two months later, and if irresponsible, then theoretically, of course, they could be sent to the same ones. Nor assaults, which are already being talked about in june. There is information from ukrainian sources and from some russian open sources that russia is withdrawing forces in the occupied part of the Luhansk Region to avdiivka, but there is no information about any really significant movements of Russian Troops or about any preparation for a grand offensive with a breakthrough of the front, in open sources. Just as there is no accurate data on the number of troops at the front. In december, putin voiced figures of 600,000. People who are directly at the front, but it is not known where exactly these people are physically when putin says they are at the front, it is not known whether these people are directly on the front line, whether they are in the close rear, or whether they are in some deeper rear, which is also considered a front, therefore, due to the blurring of these formulations, it is very difficult to talk about the number of troops on the front line, and in the context of such reports about a possible wave of mobilization in russia appears. The question is, what about ukraine, will it mobilize more troops, and if so, what number might we be talking about . Last year, the president said that 500 should be recruited into the army in 2024 000 people. The ministry of defense of ukraine said that half a million mobilized people are needed primarily to replace 330,000 exhausted soldiers at the front, and the rest to replenish losses and cover other military needs. Later, the ministry of defense. They said that the need for people had decreased somewhat, and the commanderinchief of the armed forces of ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi , said that the command had reviewed internal resources. And here is something today about the needs of mobilization, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Well, we dont need half a million, i am grateful to glavkom for the audit, it is important that he found strength inside the armed forces of ukraine, and the corresponding number that was not at the front. They will be at the front, as for the individual number, how many will be mobilized until they are ready to tell you. Well, it is too early to talk about the number of military personnel, as zelenskyi says, in ukraine the age of those who can be mobilized into the army has decreased. The day before, the president signed a law that reduces the age of mobilization from 27 to 25 years old, this was called for more than once in the west, and the former british minister of defense ben wallace said bluntly youth must be mobilized, because according to him, the average age of fighters at the front is over 40. So how is ukraine . To strengthen the defense, we are talking about it with the director of Geopolitics Research network, mykhailo samus, we are in touch, good evening to you, if we talk about a possible wave of mobilization in russia, we just heard from a bbc viewer, he is convinced that 300 thousand for russia, so far the number is unsustainable, and what do you think, russia will still announce mobilization in the summer . In fact, two aspects should be noted here. First. Russia is in a hurry, because they believe that while the United States does not help ukraine, europe has not yet reached, lets say, an effective level of assistance to ukraine, russia has a chance to really change the situation at the front, to break the front and still take on the tasks that they set before themselves, first of all, this is the kramatorskslovyansk, volhydar direction and occupy the Donetsk Region in its entirety, and it is possible to go further, and the second aspect is that they believe that the 24th year is really decisive for this war, that is, they are preparing, lets say, for a change of power in of the United States before the change of administration, their package of proposals, which i believe they will try to grab as much ukrainian territory as possible, and then offer the new president of the United States to fix the situation by signing the actual surrender of ukraine, of course on conditions. But taking advantage of the victories on the battlefield, so they can throw in any resources now, because what theyre doing on the front, when we see that in the narrow area near the village of tonenti, they threw in actually a tank battalion and a Mechanized Company just to kill, and it was destroyed by ukrainian fighters, this happens every day, in fact in different directions, there is no military logic here, but the sense is that they are in a hurry, and therefore when we say or. They can they ensure the mobilization of 3,000 military personnel or persons . I will say that they can, unfortunately, they have a lot of funds, they have, they still earn tens and hundreds of billions of dollars on oil, and therefore they can provide for themselves even without announcement of actual mobilization, but to recruit several hundred thousand military personnel with those hidden methods, another problem arises here for them, it is equipping them with weapons and military equipment, which women, as they say, do not give birth to, as they say, their defenseindustrial complex does not cope, and that is why experts in ukraine say in a consolidated manner, in principle, that they will not have time, of course, until may and june to equip the new divisions with military equipment, if they will create them, but at the end of the summer on they can do it in autumn, yes, well, if they dont have time for mayjune, as you say. Will ukraine have time to prepare on the other side . For ukraine, the key moment is actually not mobilization, indeed, you correctly said that mobilization from the point of view is more important, after all, in the rotation of those soldiers who have been fighting since february 22. This is the main problem, to prevent the exhaustion of ukrainian boys, military men and women who are constantly fighting already. For years and this is a problem, but from the point of view of military capability, it is still more important for us not to to carry out mobilization, because if we again recruit 500,000 military personnel, the same question will arise where to get tanks, armored vehicles, ammunition, artillery, this is what interests us and the main thing, of course, the key tools that can still allow us to change the situation on front, its f16, its longrange missiles. Like atakams, and this is, of course, artillery with ammunition and opportunities for the technological growth of our military, the fact that the mobilization must be strengthened, this is clear, we will pass a law very soon, i think it is this the sphere will move into a more controlled and more, lets say, calculated growth, yes, but if we talk about military aid, then the american aid is already several. As it is literally stuck in the Congress Like this, and without american help, will ukraine be able to repel this potential russian offensive . Yes, i can say that europe surprised, that is, i counted on it. In fact , the russians that the americans will not help ukraine in the 24th year, and europe is not able to help ukraine, so in the 24th year they will succeed in breaking through the front, what they have been trying since october 23rd year, for example, in the avda direction, well , of course, in other directions they tried to break through the front, they did not succeed, now they continue to do it due to inertia, in the future they will still have to take a break, but their calculation is that europe wont help , it didnt come true because europe began to increase production, including initiatives such as the Czech Initiative to purchase ammunition in third countries outside the european union, which is having an effect. Already in the coming weeks, ukraine will have much more ammunition, which means that ukraine will be able to stop russian attacks, but if the United States still returns to stryia, if so, if you can say so, then we have the armed forces. There is still an opportunity to conduct and, lets say, surprises, which can be expressed in conducting offensive operations in certain directions, mr. Mykhailo, thank you, director of the independent platform new Geopolitics Research network, mykhailo samuts was in touch with us, thank you, so how to support ukraine is being discussed by representatives of nato countries, ministers of Foreign Affairs of the countries that are members of the alliance gathered for a meeting in. In particular, as reported by the media, nato is considering the possibility of creating a multiyear support fund for ukraine. Previously, we are talking about 100 billion dollars. And this is how nato secretary general Jens Stoltenberg commented on the need for longterm assistance to ukraine . We need to change the dynamics of our aid. We must provide reliable and predictable Security Assistance to ukraine over the long term, so that we rely less on voluntary contributions and more on commitments. Here is what the exdeputy of the Verkhovna Rada said about it commanderinchief of natos joint forces in europe, richard schaefer. A clear nato strategy is needed, which, of course, should be supported by all 32 Member States of the alliance. This strategy should pave the way for a future vision that nato has yet to formulate, and in my opinion, this vision should take into account the acceptance of ukraine as a member of nato, because only this can secure the transatlantic region from the threat from russia. For this to happen, we need clarity, leadership and support from all 32 member countries of the alliance, but i think that the most important and the most interesting thing is that nato is actually taking the initiative to provide lethal aid to ukraine, which has not been the case so far, until now it was the overwhelming initiative of the us. I think that nato recognizes the real threat of trumps presidency for the alliance, and therefore takes all measures to provide ukraine with everything it needs, because now the help is not enough. Nato is taking the initiative to form a strategy aimed at securing europe with ukraine as part of nato, and for ukraine to receive the necessary means to achieve membership conditions. That in will ultimately mean the defeat of russia. But we are still very far from that. And the worst scenario of the development of events is a war between nato and russia. Nato must do Everything Possible to prevent this from happening. The only way to avoid this is to restrain russia. Nato must mobilize all its capabilities, mobilize its militaryindustrial base, in order to provide ukraine with the weapons, ammunition, aircraft, means it needs, as well as the nato member countries. Should Pay Attention to their own armed forces and prepare them for this worstcase scenario, but i fear that we are very, very far from that at the moment. And thats all we have time to talk about today. Follow the updates on our website bbc. Ua. Our colleagues monitor the situation and help understand what is happening in ukraine and the world. And well be on the air tomorrow, as always, at 9 p. M. All the best. Greetings, friends, live on the espresso tv channel, the second part of the verdict program, my name is serhiy rudenko, today in the episode blind thirst for revenge, antiukrainian hysteria is being whipped up like crap in russia. Uses tragedy in crocus for mobilization against ukraine. Telegram and telethon. The information war for the heads of ukrainians continues. And how to maintain a balance between. Interests of National Security and freedom of speech during wartime. Only after the victory , poroshenko plans to run for president again. What can be the next election of the head of state . Friends, we work live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms. During our broadcast, we conduct surveys. Today we ask you about whether ukraine will receive an invitation to join the of the North Atlantic Alliance in 2000. 24, if you watch us on youtube, its pretty simple, yes, no, or your own answer, please write in the comments below this video, if you watch us on tv, pick up your smartphone or phone and vote if you think ukraine will receive an invitation to join nato this year, 0800 211 381, no, 080 211 382, all calls to these numbers are free, vote at the end of the program, we will match. I want to present the bags of this vote todays guests of our studio are political experts Maksym Rozumny and serhiy taran. Gentlemen, i welcome you, thank you for being with us today. So, lets serhiy and maksym begin our conversation with the bliss poll, as we ask our viewers whether they think ukraine will receive an invitation to join nato in the 24th year. Or not, they have two answer options, yes, no, maybe you have a slightly extended answer option, but lets start with you, so that our tv viewers also pick up this baton and start voting on tv and on youtube maxim, you have a word. I think that there is really no big intrigue here, i think that there will be no invitation in the 24th year of ukraine, and in general this is a question. Can obviously appear in the practical plane after the war is over, for many reasons, actually one of those reasons is that i think both nato headquarters and the capitals of the leading nato countries crossed paths when the war started, i mean a fullscale invasion russia, that ukraine was not in nato for a while, because otherwise it would oblige these countries and nato to react in the way for which they were not ready, so i think that they took this situation into account and the question of ukraines accession will arise when it will not pose a threat, will not pose such a challenge as it could be in the 22nd year, if ukraine was a member of nato. Thank you, serhiy, and what do you think, i. E. Are the western partners ready, are they ready . Ukraine is ready, it is clear that the current level of the armed forces of ukraine, well at least this condition and the existing weapons, are they sufficient for ukraine to be a member of the North Atlantic Alliance . If ukraine was a member of nato, no war would have happened. So far, at least, putin does not dare to go to war with any member of the north. Alliance, if ukraine had not made a fatal mistake and declared its neutrality back in the 90s, if it had stubbornly joined nato since the 90s, as in fact all our neighbors, except belarus and moldova , did, then there would be no war in ukraine did not, and this should be clearly understood, but now it is too late, so to speak, to wave ones hands, one must understand that now there is already a war, russia has started a war with all its neighbors. Who were not members nato actually began the occupation of belarus, and never started a war with those former members of the soviet bloc who managed to join nato. And with all this now, when we look at this history and predict the future, i can say for sure that, of course, now, while the hostilities are going on, where you are, where you are, ukraine will not receive an invitation, but de facto it will be integrated into nato. Well, in fact, this is happening now, just this integration, it is a little unfair for ukraine, because we are mainly fighting with an aggressor, and nato only helps us, but this will be the integration that will allow ukraine to become part of western security. Look, just the other day, uh, secretary general stoltenberg made a very interesting proposal when he said, you know, we are constantly at risk of not providing aid to ukraine because of the fact that in various members of the alliance, including the United States, constantly there are some internal political problems going on, and so lets create a fund for. 5 years in the size of 100 billion, which will allow directly, directly bypassing the governments from to send funds from this fund to ukraine, that is , the decision on the allocation of funds would be made at the nato headquarters. This is such an informal mechanism of ukraines involvement in the North Atlantic Alliance. I repeat, this is not a deura, but a de facto, which will obviously be tested in july this year, when the nato summit will take place. Therefore, to sum it up like this, i would say that ukraine will receive a d