Transcripts For ESPRESO 20240703 : comparemela.com

ESPRESO July 3, 2024

General budanov, yes, but there are many such assessments by foreign experts, and in principle, according to many parameters that affect the ability to conduct war, or the combat readiness of the armed forces, ukraine is inferior, and this situation cannot be corrected, inferior in human resources, and it is not only a quantitative one, although the number here is of course a key factor, as regards economic, military, potentials, then here indeed, well, with some disagreements, somewhere at the end of the 24th year, such very critical problems will begin in russia with war financing. Today, russia spends about 300 Million Dollars every day, that is, it is a colossal amount. And the reserve that was created, the opportunities that russia had due to oil and gas revenues, they are also now, lets say, essentially limited, exhausted, but to predict what the price of a barrel of oil will be, or how much russia will be able to sell this oil to alternative markets, how effective will be. Sanctions, that is, there are a lot of factors that are difficult to calculate, definitely, but in any case, the russian resource is not infinite and even human, in this context, in the context of this interview that bodanov gave, it was also about the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear power plant, in your opinion, how high are the risks of undermining the plant by Russian Forces now, or not i know, its use in a more dangerous format than it is today , in fact, general budanov talked about not so much the physical detonation of some part of the station, er, but about the controlled leakage of radiation from its reactors, thats basically it, this the danger remains, our energy colleagues, especially those who are specialists in nuclear energy, have described these scenarios in various. Sources, and, well, if so, to try to predict one of these scenarios, in my opinion, the most likely is that russia at the moment when will understand that they need to make another gesture of goodwill, to leave the station , then she may well create such a slowacting mine there, that is, it is not necessarily an explosive, it is, for example, destruction, from outside the channel. External power, this is the creation some other prerequisites for which ukraine will have a minimum time in order to prevent this catastrophe, or is it, in other words, in the hands of Russian Forces, it still remains an instrument of at least some influence on the situation, an instrument of nuclear blackmail, the bahamud direction, avdiivskyi, kupiansky, if look at the summary of the general staff of ukraine, they remain complex, and the situation there remains complex, the concentration of Russian Forces in these areas is quite high, please tell me what you think, how do you assess whether the transfer of troops of Russian Forces there and the actual intensity of the fighting, increase, it was there that they stopped the offensive of the armed forces of ukraine in the zaporozhye direction, that is, this was the idea of ​​the military command of the russian federation, which was discussed repeatedly, whether it was successful, what do you think, of course, this was one of the key goals. Which pursued the russians with these attacks, and it is obvious that these goals were much more ambitious, the very encirclement of avdiyivka, and whether it pulled the ukrainian reserves away from the areas where the offensive is being carried out, well, in part, probably yes, but if we look at the regular reports of the ukrainian general headquarters, then, well , in my opinion, there was not a single day when active offensive actions would have stopped precisely in the southern direction or in the district of bakhmut, that is, the pace, maybe so. But to what extent is this exactly russias counteroffensive in the avdiyivka area influenced this pace, it is difficult to say, most likely, these are the problems we know with intensive mining, with those engineering and defense barriers that russia had time to build in the areas of a potential ukrainian offensive. Mr. Oleksiy, very briefly in conclusion, literally we have 30 seconds, as you think, because according to the forecasts, there will be intense russians. The forces should also attack the Energy System of ukraine during the autumnwinter period, are there any opportunities to protect the Energy System, if not completely, then at least as much as possible, eh, then the good news is that some measures have been taken to physically protect its critical infrastructure, the bad news is that it has certainly not been possible to fully restore it, even to the state it was in last year. So back in october of last year, but what we need to understand, i have even first of all for the society, is that it is better to prepare for the worst case scenario, that is, that we already have experience, how to prepare for it, blackouts, blackouts can be , thank you, mr. Oleksiy, unfortunately, we have it wrong for a long time, oleksiy melnyk, codirector of the Foreign Policy and International Security program, coordinator of international projects, guest of our broadcast, we talked about, analyzed, more precisely, the statements of mr. Bodanov in the interview with ukraine. The truth, where he talked about zas and how long the war can last, and that the world is on the verge of a global war. I remind you, you are watching the project Svoboda Ranok and dont miss it. Already this sunday, poles will elect deputies and senators. These elections have already been called the most important in the last 35 years years the main intrigue of the election race is whether kaczynskis ruling law and Justice Party will come to power for the third time, or whether the opposition Civil Coalition with donald tusk will win. Details of the election process. In neighboring poland and why ukraine is also waiting for the results of these elections, my colleagues will tell. But in ukraine, the holding of elections during the war is positively perceived by only 15 of citizens, as evidenced by the survey results of the sociological service of the Razumkov Center. Is the ukrainian Political Community preparing for the elections and whether they will be held in conditions of a largescale invasion, we will ask the representatives of the ruling majority. Your likes are important to us, so please like our videos and subscribe. To radio svobodas Youtube Channel and write in the comments the topics that interest you, which could become the topics of our broadcasts in the future. In poland, there are elections to the sejm, already this sunday poles can and should elect 460 deputies and 100 senators. The main competitors are the conservative ruling party law and justice and the liberal opposition civic platform. And besides the elections the parliament will also hold a referendum, at which several questions were submitted at once. As the results of these races. Can affect relations with ukraine and about what this Election Campaign was like and what ukraine expects from them, we will ask my colleague, natalka volosatska, a correspondent of Radio Liberty in poland, joins our broadcast. Natalya, good morning, please tell me how the preparations for the elections in poland are going, what forecasts are given by sociologists and those who poll people, and what are the consequences of these results can affect ukraine later . Congratulations oleg, go vote. Then you wont have the right to complain, thats how they joke in poland about the election, about the election, in addition to the campaigning of the politics of all parties, they call on citizens to come to the polling stations on sunday and cast their vote. Political scientists predict that voter turnout will be approximately 60 . And such an interesting detail is that this year, for the first time , those who were born in the family when poland joined the eu will go to the polling stations. So, on sunday, poles will elect 460 deputies and 10 senators, the main intrigue is whether the ruler will come to power for the third time the party is right. Justice led by Yaroslav Kaczynski or the united opposition, the Civil Coalition with donald tusk. Observers say that these elections have polarized society and the fight for every vote is very intense, but in what direction will poland develop further . The most fundamental problem of these elections, and here we have two different perspectives from the side of the ruling coalition, positions, is the question of the relationship with the european union, whether we will consistently participate in supporting integration, or whether we will proeuropean, will we take an active part in the creation of a proeuropean policy, will we have claims against the eu, will we try to build some local alliances with, for example antiukrainian hungarians or antiukrainian slovaks, the question of whether we will play against brussels or with brussels, this is the main stake of the elections . Observers call this Election Campaign exceptionally dirty. Politicians call each other liars, thieves, traitors and bullies on tv screens. Atypical methods of campaigning, chosen by some politicians, also yielded chimerical ones promises, one of the young candidates, in addition to election leaflets, distributed scented condoms signed with her own name to people , another candidate from a party expressing antiukrainian views offers to substantially increase assistance for childbirth, and also to give away 2 million zlotys to women who gave birth in a certain day. Another politician advocated free driving courses for 18yearolds, which is a huge expense, because for driving courses in poland you have to pay 34 zlotys. So, according to the latest polls, the leader of the race ruling law and justice. Collects 33. 5 of voters votes, the Civil Coalition 28 , the third way almost 11, the gulfs are ready to give their votes to a little more than 10 of poles, and the party with antiukrainian rhetoric, the confederation, is in last place with 9. 2 . Let me remind you that during the Election Campaign, it was this party that actively used the ukrainian issue, in particular grain and refugees, called to deprive ukraine of aid and support, saying that ukrainians are not grateful. And since the electorate of the confederacy and the ruling party of law and justice in part intersects, then in order to win votes, peace also used the ukrainian issue. Well, thats what political scientists say, at least. In particular, the ruling party extended the ban on the import of ukrainian grain, hoping to win the votes of farmers. And we have a bit of a copod here, we have a bit of a problem with grain, relations between ukraine and poland have become more passable, but this coolness is electoral, and therefore who. Was not in power, with the exception of the confederation, but it itself will not rule, only in some coalition, then whoever is in power in poland, i cant imagine that relations between kyiv and warsaw will deteriorate significantly. Well, actually, in the end, i will say that it is not the first time that ukrainians are very actively following the Election Campaign in poland, because since the beginning of the fullscale war, the countries have become very close, poland supported and supports ukraine, almost a million ukrainians received temporary shelter here, so everyone is interested, what will happen next, the forecasts of political scientists, as you can hear, are encouraging, they say that after the elections the tension between the countries will disappear, relations will improve and further constructive cooperation colleague thank you, natalie, very original approaches to how to attract the attention of voters in poland. Natalka volosatska, about the situation and the election race that is going on in poland, she is actively following her in ukraine, as natalya said, because it is interesting in which direction the relations between the two states will develop further. But ukraine. They negatively perceive the idea of ​​holding elections during the war. This is evidenced by the results of a sociological survey by the Razumkov Center. 64 of respondents are against the elections, while only 15 would support such an idea. The respondents did not decide decided on their attitude. Those who support elections before the end of the war justify this by supporting democracy in the country and the need to show ukraines democracy to the world. Also, in their support , the interviewees explained the need to change the government, or to update it. But the opponents. The lack of money for the voting process is cited as an argument for elections during the war, and legal obstacles are the most common among respondents, because elections during martial law are prohibited. Also, the negative attitude is justified by Security Issues and the impossibility of organizing the election process in the occupied territories and war zones. Also, ukrainians are not sure that during the war it is possible to observe democracy in elections due to restrictions on rights, but if such elections were held, then according to the results of the poll, 15 would vote for old politicians, and 24 would vote for newly created political forces, for a relative majority, almost a third of the polled it would not matter if the party existed before or was just created. It is worth noting that this survey was conducted by the Razumkov Center at territories under the control of ukraine and along the combat line, and not along the combat line, from september 21 to 27 of this year, 2016 respondents were surveyed, the theoretical error, say sociologists, does not exceed 2. 3 . Meanwhile , incumbent ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyi says he is ready to run for a second term, but only if the elections are held during wartime. In case of its completion, he will not go to the second round. The president made such a statement in romania in an interview with local journalists. To the question, does he know when the war will end, he said he could not answer, however, says ukraine is now in the last and most difficult stage of the war. If the war continues yes, if it ends no , i cant escape during the war, i cant tell you the exact date, i dont think anyone can, i know that we are going to counterattack, that russia will go with. Territory, i think i know when, but i cant tell you this, this is the last part of the war, this is not the middle of it, we have a lot of fear, money for weapons, but we are in the last part, the most difficult. Elections in ukraine during the war were discussed after a visit to kyiv by the american senator from the republican party, lynzi graham, during the visit, he said that elections should be held in ukraine next year, even during martial law, arguing that this is a natural process for democratic countries and it is necessary to reboot the government, at. Therefore, all types of elections during the war are clearly prohibited by the law of ukraine on martial law. Later , ukrainian president zelenskyi stated in an interview that he is ready to hold elections if the west will pay for it and is ready to send its observers into the trenches. At the same time , he is the head of the Public Network opora, which monitors the elections in ukraine. Olga aivazovska says that it is impossible to hold democratic elections in the conditions of war. Mykyta putturayev, peoples deputy of ukraine, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada committee on humanitarian and information policy before our broadcast, good morning, mr. Mykyta, good morning, thank you for taking the time, but after mr. Zelskys statement that he is ready to run for the second term if the war will continue, the issue of whether there will be elections in ukraine or not, please tell us how ukrainian politicians are preparing for the elections now actively, they are not preparing, there may be an even bigger discussion on this issue in the parliament, look, we are we are not preparing for the elections, not because we dont want them or are afraid of them, but because we all understand the complexities of this process, i want to remind you, i am currently reading a lot of delusions, so as not to express myself even more harshly, unfortunately, from people who i am very many years old i know, and i still respect those who write that the government wants, the government never wanted it, we have never heard a single statement that we want to hold elections during the war, but i can say that although we are at the official level and we say that we, the western partners, are not forced, as a parliamentarian i have much more freedom to talk about certain things, because i am not bound by official obligations, as the president or the minister of Foreign Affairs and so on, so i can say , that for the first time i heard from western partners the question of whether we will whether we will hold elections or not, and if we will then when, it was in february 23 of the year in vienna at the winter meeting. Obssi, then i heard these same questions, and here my colleagues from the opposition will not allow me to stop, because Artur Gerasimov and ivan krulko also took part in that discussion, it was in vancouver at the summer session of the obssi in the 23rd year. So these questions were constantly being asked, to which we always said, i can personally say what i said , i said that without a lot of money, which still needs to be calculated for the first thing, to make a register, now to make a register, it is actually equivalent to a census, and the census must be done inside ukraine, this census must be done in europe, this census must be done in the united states, in canada, wherever there are ukrainians, this is one time, it is a huge job and a lot of money. So, the second issue is the issue of changes to the electoral legislation, again, we are accused of wanting elections through action, action is an auxiliary tool. I have one question how to ensure its appearance, i put it to our western colleagues, people whom 5 million voters for borders, how to do it, at

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