Photos for a long time. 34 tanks and more than 90 armored cars in a day, but the fact that the prepared occupiers left is unfortunately a fact, and if they left thats it for snoring and to take some more positions in they did not succeed, they will be charged, well, probably for such a longterm campaign, until the task is completed, because obviously the task there now is such that either the achievement of the goals set in the kremlin, well, or another general. Well, lets go to a little commercial break now, and then well continue on the same topic, because i think this is the most interesting twist in the fighting that s worth analyzing, so now the commercial is on the espresso channel, stay tuned, we will continue to analyze this situation avdiyivka, people and ideas that protect and create ukraine, the sixth carpatia forum, the future of tradition, ukrainian in the global world, ivano. Frankivs on october 14 and 15. 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To learn about the war and how the world lives, two hours, to keep up with Economic News and sports news, two hours in the company of favorite presenters, presenters who have become like family to many, as well as distinguished guests of the studio, the events of the day in two hours , vasyl zimas big broadcast, a project for the intelligent and those who care, in the evening at espresso, these are the chronicles of military operations with ivan kyrychevsky, a military expert of defenspress we continue to discuss the attempted offensive of the russians in the avdiyivka region, and actually what this could mean, here ivan, look, well, what will be the offensive in the avdiyivka region, in principle, it was clear since last week, well, at least no one came from the russians, that they have such plans, we even in this program last week, i personally discussed that we should probably wait for an intensification of some hostilities there , but here is the question, is this a local offensive, do they have some local goal, or is it some kind of greater effort on the entire front . Do we have a connection i see what, i see were having a little bit of a connection problem here maybe lets try lets redial because the thing is why am i even talking about this because anyway , but first, the russians do not stop their attempts to do something in the area lyman, in the area of kupyansk, where they are also constantly carrying out some forces , their offensive forces, moreover, there is a large group, to say that there is a large group near avdiyivka, well, it is probably not possible, but nevertheless, there are some, and there are also declarations of the russian generals, first of all, there shoigo, who say that they recruited and formed there. The reserves recruited 300 or Something Like 20,000 volunteers, and now they seem to have to demonstrate something, what, they were recruiting these volunteers for something, what happened, well it is clear that part of these volunteers had already been killed during their attempts to fight there, near bakhmut, in the south, when they were forced to raise troops in order to resist. The ukrainian counteroffensive, it is well known that they just threw new recruits there , new brigades, including mobilized ones, and those that they announce as volunteers, they threw there, but one way or another, well, this is a constant attempt to carry out some offensive actions of their own, which could demonstrate, in the opinion of the russian leadership, that the russian army is capable to conduct an offensive at all, not only to be silent in the defense, eh, well, this, this, this , this can take place and this, can continue, obviously, the only question is how much strength they have for this, how much their declarations are real and to what extent, well, these are really threatening actions for us, because at the moment, we can only say, well, thats what foreign analysts say about it. That currently the russians can conduct defensive actions and in principle their character is all summer, all summer actions, these were primarily defensive actions carried out by the russians, and here we see now, here, after such an attempt, there are vorushitsi near kupyansk, here we also see an attempt of vorushitsi near avdiivka, and in principle it is even a little clear why near avdiivka, because this enclave is very close to donetsk and this one, well. Well, lets say yes, probably an ideologically important position, thats how ivan kyryachevsky came back to us , i ask the same thing, is it something local, does it have some other goals, or is it, well, a fragment of a larger effort, oh, a very good definition, after all this is a fragment of a much larger effort, because on the one hand, it showed quite a bit that yesterday the rechistes themselves even wrote about their future campaign against the avidians, who said that in the Current Situation of the russian army, which, to begin with, spent resources on its summer counteroffensive, which we may not have noticed, because after all, that they constantly counterattacked near bakhmut, that they constantly carried out some sort of assault counterattack actions in the south , well, plus, after all, they still tried to advance in the summer in the kupin and liman directions, then it was not successful for themselves, after all, it would have been worth it to be perceived also as their counteroffensive operation, which failed on the contrary. Well, from our side, it is still too early to draw conclusions, but obviously the russians are now preparing positions for what could be called a conditional such a large offensive in the east, well , because as far as i remember, our general staff has not yet given up the qualification that the actions of the russians in the east , they are precisely aimed at occupying the entire territories of the luhansk and donetsk regions, and even, if you take the situation there, in general, it looks so that the russians need to move to kupyansk and raisin precisely in order to secure the northern flank for the offensive in the east, to attack the action itself, to encircle it, they just need it in order not only to capture a symbolically important city, overcome ours in kryprayon very close to donetsk, but in general, to cut off the ledge , which, as we can see there, forms our lines around, well, the lines of defense around avdiivka, well, and also as a bonus, of course, as there, as far as it is known that the people of kadyriv really love it to bargain for a battered metallob, obviously the avdiyiv kokhsokhim, they are interested as a source of metallobt, well, of course, given the fact that the russians, at the same time, they do not spare their , lets say, counterattack efforts near bakhmut and do not spare the pace of the onslaught , how they are trying to storm and, well, attack in the mariinsky direction, the voglodar direction, it all really looks like a part of such a large fragment of efforts, the russians have an appropriate array of forces and means for these efforts, because if their occupying group only there, well, the front, and well, the first, the second, there on the third line of defense, there are 430,000 bayonets , not counting, lets say, their own gendarmerie, well, that is, those. Forces that simply ensure the occupation regime, there is the militia, what do they have there there may still be, there are too many of them, unfortunately, to be able, you know, to conduct such offensive actions, continuing the limited mobilization that they were, that they are conducting now, moreover, to the extent that, to the extent that they will approach new battles in an urbanized area, it may even happen such a situation that they will, lets call it, carry out this concept of mobilization through wagnerization, well, that is, multiply various such small. Private military campaigns, well, lets say, on the one hand, repeat the socalled Success Story in the pews, well, how by their standards, wagners pmk, and on the other hand, to avoid the political problems created by the existence of wagners pmk, which essentially created, well, constituted two army corps, such wellequipped ones, especially since it is still possible, which could to confuse the optics of the events, well, even this accentuation from our official sources about the fact that, well, the russians have transferred to the front 25 this unformed army, forgive me, but if this army turned out to be capable of going on the offensive, well, it means that on unfortunately, the russians have fulfilled their plan for the formation of this general military unit, even if it began to be implemented there only in december of last year, so all this is in the air, there are reasons to qualify it as part of such a largescale effort, and unfortunately for efforts on other areas, so that at the same time we do not have the opportunity to concentrate our efforts only on clothing, the russians also have, well, the appropriate array of forces, well, with avdiivka there is another complication, that in principle, it is really one, and probably the largest, most fortified really ours, our positions, because there are many trenches, well, underground communications , well, thats really it, its such an engineering structure in its essence, that is, lets just let the audience understand that its not just a thin line of cops, no, its completely different story, and this story can be quite in that respect its telling, look how they can storm this whole thing, because trying to storm the way they stormed it in bakhmut, throwing, even there, here according to the principle of wagner, here, as they say, meat storms, yes, thats not a bit about this, not about this story, because there have already been such attempts here and they failed, what can they do. that they have to change some of their tactics and, in principle, we are probably already observing this change of tactics a little bit, but what exactly is she, well, judging by so far, they are all the same here they will come back and here, in my opinion, they are a little bit sidetracked, but just in the context of our prebinding events, especially even the story with that hamas and the underestimation of everyone, as if, well, lets put it this way, i happened to come across a good statement, that everyone has been shown that it is not profitable to simply leave the enemy there, it is irrational to do something, well, it is wrong , well, because if you were to say the style of russian warfare, it assumes roughly the same thing, that is, to do as it is rationally unprofitable, respectively , they are possible even they tried to change something there, that is, to advance exactly as the army of the ref was going to do it until february 2022, well, that is, rapid such aggressive breakthroughs by mechanized columns with the support of. Drones, well , because, for example, the figure in the general staff report about the downed su 25, and seven reconnaissance drones at once, it clearly turned out not for nothing, but from the fact that the russians maximized the use of their aviation assets, well, they did not succeed, obviously, they even from this concept that there are small forces, but effectively, they tried to attack yesterday, it didnt work out, well, obviously, they will do as they are used to, that is, they will try to take the ovidian siege itself, try to intensify the shelling there, try to recruit these new storms, other such, lets say, assault the infantry, which is not a pity, lets call it that, well, especially since why do they have a private mechanism. Of military companies is still preserved, well, because try to sign up a mobilized or contracted person for such, lets put it this way, if you are hired by a private company, you will be paid simple money, but as part of your contract, you sign that you will go on this assault, they will obviously carry out this mechanism, indeed, as you very rightly noted, in the case of avdiivka, it is a fortified district, a very powerful fortified district, a level. Power, which cannot be compared with anything now, but on the other hand, lets note, maybe that is why the russians decided to abandon the assaults on the front of this fortified area, which were in the winter and spring of this year, where the russians gained as many as 30 units of regimental brigade level, they caught up with a lot of heavy artillery here , they didnt succeed, thats why they tried to leave and thats how they aimed, and judging by this, they will even continue to try to hit like that in order to capture it. There is a siege and everything, lets say so, all the formats and methods of fighting that we could observe, when you talk about taking the audio player into the environment, where it can happen, in what directions, because it is clear that this is the idea , that is, to sharpen, but if you look at the map, where does krasnogohorivka come from . Er, exactly of this attempt to encircle avdiivka, and where are there other points that are, well, probably , well, i would say, dangerous at the moment, i think that they will just hit, try, try to hit where they beat, and yesterday, that is, just to beat where in one point, well, just like there, based on our logic, to beat in one place is irrational, because you can prepare there, but decide, they act just the opposite, what there if the bat is the same point, then early or late can be nailed, well, they are just up to that did not demonstrate the ability to adjust their strategy in such a way as to look for some workarounds, especially since they may even believe that they had some partial success yesterday, especially since, for example, there is such a strange situation that the general staff of claims that no position has been encountered, well, but there are good people from resursay, who are very professionally able to geologize the current line of conflict, say that a certain gray zone has arisen, as far as i can remember, that when there was just some small gray zone on in the kupinsky direction, where three villages per 100 people were in this gray zone, it was not perceived as an administrative disaster, which was later corrected, that is, unfortunately, we cannot simply state that all the efforts of the russians that they made there yesterday , that they. Didnt give them any result , respectively, if they can see the result in this, they will just continue to do it in the same way, because they dont know otherwise, what are the possibilities of the russians for some intervening actions, not only in this raini, in general, that is, how would you evaluate them, because the russians are talking about 320,000 volunteers who recruited, well, these are all conditional figures, which should not be taken seriously, because they do not correspond. Most likely true, or it is already together with those who have already managed to fight, but nevertheless, what we have now on the battlefield, that we can somehow still identify and confirm this data, well, if we take those the data that are available, you can express the formula like this, for coming on the offensive, they have it all the necessary resources, but in order to achieve the goals of the offensive, here the question is actually open, well, because everything is like that, if you take, well, this example, with yesterdays losses in Armored Vehicles, why does it look quite optimistic, well, maybe for some the commentator gives a reason in principle to hope for a positive conclusion to the case for us, well, because if we do not take it for granted that the russians have 2,000 tanks left throughout the occupation group, and of them a thousand tanks are stuck in the kupnitsky directions, well it is obviously so ineffective, they cannot afford to lose tanks in the avdiiv direction, er, 90 Armored Vehicles in one day, well , you know, they are two at such a rate, if you take the data on the occupation troops that are known, well, about two three months of such losses will be enough for them, further questions, therefore. And if we proceed from the logic that, after all, the russians , after they try to take something by snoring, they do not succeed, they move, very usual for unfortunately, regime, that is, assault groups with limited support of Armored Vehicles, then here the story arises in such a way that they will be able to introduce longterm hostilities, for a very long time, several months, but the result there will be so very slow, well, approximately how the