Transcripts For ESPRESO 20240703 : comparemela.com

ESPRESO July 3, 2024

For ukraine . Strengthening. For the occupiers, will iran transfer hypersonic missiles to russia and how will this change the situation on the front . About this and other things, today we will talk with our guests, they are the colonel of the armed forces of ukraine in the reserve, petro chernyk, and the peoples deputy of ukraine, former head of the sbu, valentyn nalyvaichenko. However, before starting our conversation, lets look at the consequences of todays attack by the russian invaders on the territory avdiivskogo coke chemical plant. Water, one of the rockets hit the naphthalene storage warehouse, luckily there were no casualties. For those who are. Watching us live on youtube please like this video and also take part in our poll, today we are asking you this, do you support ukraine joining nato, yes no, and this it would seem like a rhetorical question now, but we are asking to make sure that 100 of our audience thinks as we do, that ukraine should be in the North Atlantic Alliance, and this is related with what we met today guests from the North Atlantic Alliance in kyiv, but all in turn, the colonel of the armed forces of ukraine in zapasiv, the military expert petro chernyk, is in touch with us. Mr. Colonel, good evening and glad to see you on our air. Glory to ukraine glory to the heroes. Two defense ministers of france and great britain, sebast lecorne and grand chaps, as well as the secretary general of the north atlantic visited ukraine today. Alliance Jens Stoltenberg, what do you think this triple visit to the ukrainian capital is connected with, our the main allies and people who determine in what way they support ukraine in the russianukrainian war. This means that ukraine remains on the radar of world geopolitics and that the actual accession of ukraine to nato is closer than ever, as it is today, well, really, what will happen is that we need to be patient and go the way that we have to go, personally, as a citizen and as an analyst, i firmly stand on the position that there is no alternative to nato, of course it would be great if the us army entered the territory ukraine, but this is a very unlikely scenario. Today, during the briefing with stolteng, zelensky spoke about the prospects of cooperation with the alliance, lets listen to zelensky. Today it is already. The conversation of de facto allies and the question of when ukraine will de jure become a member of the alliance. We are doing everything to bring this time closer. Ukraine already defends the common space of freedom that unites all nato members, and a victory for ukraine in this unprovoked and criminal war unleashed by russia is guaranteed to ensure longterm security and peace not only for our country, but for the entire continent. Mr. Colonel, after all, before our victory over russia, are any steps possible regarding ukraines accession to nato, we know the promise of the North Atlantic Alliance that ukrainians will definitely be in the alliance, and we are waiting for the washington summit, which will be the anniversary of nato, and still, are there any other options. Because European Security and security in the world are now undergoing very serious changes, and it is clear that what was usually, in prewar times, the main thing for nato and the main principles, can they change during the war, because well, this same block was created to ensure security, including on the european continent, and why cant they, they can, but lets go, if we go a little into the historical retrospective of the development of this bloc, we understand that the United States of america is primarily blocked by 80, or even 90 , if there is a political will of the global american establishment to apply ukraine to nato, then believe me, this issue will be resolved very. Quickly and very high quality i will remind you how turkey was accepted into nato in 1959, 52, sorry, year, then turkey did not have a lot of all kinds of problems, from economic to human rights, with the most diverse issues of corruption and the like, everything was far from simple and in part of the socalled the second wave of expansion, which began after the collapse of the soviet union and the destruction of the warsaw defense bloc, there were also problems with corruption. Including in romania and bulgaria, but nato, primarily the usa, had to close the southern flank , and they are it done very quickly and very qualitatively, it is my deep and firm belief that the main player in this process will be played by the United States of america, well, but we understand very well that there is a threat from trump, who uses rhetoric that the United States will withdraw from nato, so far not everything is so simple and unambiguous, the world has clearly entered a deep zone of turbulence, security, as it is until the fifth International System appears, or the fourth yalta system is completely crossed out, it will be in that zone of turbulence, and when it appears, well, it really question of a very serious and large order. Today , reuters reported following the meeting between zelenskyi and stolteng in kyiv that nato signed contracts for the supply of ammunition to ukraine in the amount of €2,400 million. A few days ago. Thats why the russians flaunted the fact that the west is not keeping up with the Russian Military machinery , which produces a lot of weapons, which is rearming, and is converting the majority of factories to military rails, which, they say, very quickly both in europe and in the United States of america , those stocks which earlier there were missiles and other weapons, medvedev says that the conflict between moscow and nato will definitely happen, and on land, he says that it is, that it is simply inevitable, what do you think, eh, where here, just the rhetoric that works for the russian domestic consumer ends, and the kremlins desire to try its hand at confrontation with the North Atlantic Alliance, in a direct conventional confrontation. The Russian Federation with northern anlens has no chance, none, russia is doomed, they cannot cope with the 15th the army of the world, i mean us ukrainians , well, what can be said about a huge collective event, which in terms of Human Potential alone is half a billion people, in fact it may be even more, because we still need to add the United States of america and canada, which necessarily, if it comes to such a conflict, they will be drawn into it, but there is one fundamental point i do not believe that nato can enter this war in any way until there is an obvious attack. What is the obviousness of the attack should happen the latest pearl harbor, like on december 7, 1941, the japanese almost completely sank the American Pacific fleet with the exception of a few Aircraft Carriers there, until then the americans did not move, this is how it should be now, forgive me for my cynicism, until the rocket flies to berlin or warsaw, dont let this happen and it wont be obvious that this is a russian missile, until there is no talk about the ground phase of natos war against russia, there cant even be imo, that is, russian drones flying from the territory of ukraine, which is being hit russian invaders on territory of romania, is not yet enough to talk about the fact that nato will perceive it as a military threat . In general. There must be obviousness of the attack, the missile must explode , there must be casualties, oh my god, it is among civilians, or some military object must be affected, that is , the obviousness must be one hundred percent, it must be so evident that it cannot be denied, the drone can fly into romania, explode somewhere in some forest, everyone will know that it is a russian drone, but this is too little evidence that something really serious was beginning. Mr. Colonel, this week the minister of defense of the Russian Federation Serhiy Shoigu said that they plan to conduct a socalled special military operation in ukraine until 2025 and to complete it by 2025, taking into account the resources and the capabilities that the Russian Federation currently possesses , can russia withstand this great military marathon, because this marathon is not only a competition with the ukrainian side, but it is a competition with an event that is currently actively helping ukraine and promising even more help in opposed to the Russian Federation. In terms of full support, weapons cannot and will not last, they no longer have the huge potential that the soviet union had, they can produce a maximum of 25 tanks per month, new t90s from scratch, of course they put strategic nonnuclear missiles on the assembly line, such as x1013 m14 caliber, x47 m2 dagger in the range from 60 to 80, well, maybe together with shortrange missiles such as kh31, kh35, kh50. The nines, which deliver blows from 110 to 300 km, can still do all this for a while, but there is a nuance, there is a very serious nuance, which is called Human Potential, unfortunately, at least up to 15 million men who can pick up a kalashnikov Assault Rifle and die for their family, for putin, for vilychi, they have. We are well aware that the practical, classic military defeat of russia in ukraine is equal to the death of putin, this is obvious. Will fight for his life as long as necessary, if it is necessary to kill a million, two, three, five russians in ukraine, he will kill them, so really we do not have to exhale, as a matter of fact, the Strategic Military potential is clearly on the side of civilized humanity, 53 countries are included in the socalled ramstein site, it is nothing but an antiputin, in fact antirussian coalition, but the flywheels are spinning and it is impossible to say that the russians have completely exhaled vertue, this signal that shoigu gave, it is really very simple to decipher, he gave a signal to his own people, we will fight, he gave us a signal that they will not accept an independent ukraine under any circumstances, he gave a signal to a collective action, that they are ready to go to the end, but we know very well that the real master of the universe is a chance, these are not my words, these are the words of napoleon bonaparte, and he can turn the whole modern reality upside down, and in my opinion it will , the question is only where and under what circumstances, the brightest mind of the planet earth will not undertake to predict this. Well, for now, analysts of the institute for the study of war, an american one, predict that from october 18 iran can supply longrange missiles to russia, because on this day the resolution expires un security council, which prohibits the legal sale of missiles with a range of more than 300 km. Today he spoke about the possibility of supplying such missiles at a joint press conference with Jens Stoltenberg and Volodymyr Zelenskyi, lets listen to what the president of ukraine said. Today there is information from our relevant authorities and partners that there is still no fact of iran selling missiles to the Russian Federation, our services are in contact with partners and are dealing with this issue. Well , actually, why are american analysts talking about the possible sale of these missiles to of the Russian Federation, because in august of this year the minister of defense of the Russian Federation sergei shoigu, during the military exhibition in moscow, was at the stand of the iranians, who were demonstrating the capabilities of such missiles, longrange missiles, in the second half of september , during a visit to tehran, shoigu discussed the military as far as these countries, iran, north korea, who is there or in this axis of evil, well indirectly china, can through north korea, as far as they can help the Russian Federation, withstand this marathon that sheigu spoke about until 2025 of the year, in which part they definitely can, shaheds 131, 136 are working at full strength, and this is a rather serious weapon that we can neither cancel nor ignore, of course, we shoot down most of it, but unfortunately, something still flies in, in in one part 11 kg of warhead in another 50, this is like a fullfledged artillery projectile quite a lot, lets say, the same iran and north korea have a certain weapons potential, unequivocally, this is how north korea grew from the same root with russia from the soviet union, they have all the main artillery on those calibers that russia has, and north korea has never stopped its weapons factories, especially for the production of shells and other ammunition, or have something in the accumulated mode as a matter of course, but it is not those 2 million, where now very. Is rapidly accelerating in our information space, that they will give the russians and thats it, we cant stand the end, we will stand it, why . At the beginning of this war , the russians had a space reserve of artillery shells of all calibers from 15 to 20 million. This is an incredible amount, the entire us army had 2. 5 millions, and russia is still the leader in the production of projectiles in monthly figures of 130,000, the americans by 50,000, if they go out now for this fall, then it will be for real. Very good, and what about the artillery ramparts, which have no precedents since the second world war, for a year and a half they cannot solve the issue of advancing further than bakhmut, so we have advanced in some ways, so we occupied the south, so it will be very difficult, but if we still if we endure, then we will endure in the future, fath 110 and sulfikar, it is precisely these missiles that are quite serious from 300 up to 700 km the task of strikes, ballistic, so we understand, this is a very high speed. Somewhere in the range from 4 to 9,000 km, depending on the configuration of the missile , the warhead is quite heavy, in the range of 600650 km, but even their supersonic or Hypersonic Weapons were raised, as they say daggers, behind 10,000 everything poured out over ukraine, i i mean, all classes of missiles from shaheda, hard, painful, painful, but so far they have not been able to break the course of the war, and if at the beginning of the war, not having any barrel artillery of the attack. Sample not having a single antiaircraft complex of the nato model, we survived, so now we need only one thing patience, patience and once more patience, because in this war only two things will win logistics, it is much greater in nato than in russia, and even if we include iran and north korea, patience is also greater, and we need to gain all this. Last week, mr. Colonel, Volodymyr Zelenskyi met with the president of the United States of america, joseph biden, after which newsweek appeared information about the possibility that russia and the United States of america will still provide ukraine with atakams and taurus longrange missiles , so far, the germans are also in no hurry to give the ukrainians the extent to which the lack of these missiles are currently in service, inhibiting our counteroffensive and, in general, to the extent that they restrain ukrainians or do not allow to create. Some kind of parity on the russianukrainian front. Not that parity, if we got a sufficient number, first of all, atacism in the direction of taurus is not worth looking at, as the weapon that breaks the course of the war firstly, there are very few of them, the germans declare only 150 units , we understand that they will not hand over everything, even if they give 50 units, they do not scold the course of the war, plus it is an airbased cruise missile, everything is very difficult with an airplane , he must rise into the air, go to the launch line, carry out. Go back, su 34 is a big machine , the russians are watching it, well, not just one machine , in general, our airfields, they are constantly pouring something there, we have to lift them into the air to save them and so on, its a long the philosophy of using such missiles, but atakams in large numbers can turn the tide of war on a specific bridgehead and generally help win this war, the question of quantity, atakams is unique in that, first, it is a quasiballistic missile 5400 km h. Very seriously fired from m142 hymars and m270, you are just now showing hymars, one rocket will be, it can be used from it, reloading speed, some 1520 minutes, the car is mobile, launched, moved a few kilometers, again carried out, again several kilometers, again, behind him by trucks, and this is all done at night, the enemy cannot see it , there are enough readymade launch containers, the question of quantity is very serious, they will give a few dozen, it is good that we will destroy something, somewhere we will improve something, we will speed it up somewhere, and if we gave a few hundred , a few hundred, there are over 4,000 in the warehouses , conditionally a good thousand, literally in a months time it can allow us to reach the shelter of the Perekop Isthmus and seriously approach almost to mariupol. Sir colonel, over the past few weeks we have been watching the Ukrainian Defense forces destroy military infrastructure on the crimean peninsula. First this. Pppo systems, which ours destroyed, then the command post near sevastopol, and the headquarters of the black sea fleet of the Russian Federation, information has already appeared that the russians are now trying to transfer part of the ships with calibers to feodosia sevastopol, in particular, the corvette, buyan m and one corvette karakurt and at least two minesweepers of the alexandrite project and big. Amphibious assault ship of project 775. In your opinion, under what conditions will the russians be generally intolerable on the crimean peninsula, because they are now trying to redeploy. Some way, regroup, and this is stil

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