Was not an operation, that is, they are now preparing provocations in two directions against ukrainians, this is masyrsky the oil refinery and the suvavka corridor , that is, according to you, how likely is it that in august this whole picture will unfold and russia will escalate, even if it is small, and then withdraw back with the countries that are part of the alliance. In fact, these are only two scenarios, i would add two more scenarios, the first is a Belarusian Nuclear power plant under the border of lithuania, and the second is vilnius itself. Vilnius is just 30 km from the border , and vilnius is very important for the belarusian opposition, so i would not rule it out. I would like to remind you that about a month ago , the Ukrainian Special service recorded the testimony of one of the soldiers who told about the strikes from the territory of belarus, which at 5 am on february 24, iskander launched missiles in kyiv and other cities of ukraine from the territory of belarus was hit. That is, this is a testimony that essentially makes lukashenkas guilt indisputable. Putin is playing on this because, well , putin needs to preserve the quasistatehood of belarus, because after all, belarus is one of the founders of the un along with ukraine. Lets say lukashenka was recorded in such a way that he cant even bring anything against putin. The whole history of his advocacy in relation to this wagner pvk finally cemented him as a codefendant for the crimes of selfincrimination here. Because lukashenko doesnt even exist. Well, lets put it this way, resistance against the concentration of the Russian Military on the territory of belarus. I myself saw in the kyiv region, for example , an armored personnel carrier in white camouflage. Already in march, it was clear that the equipment that was killed by the Ukrainian Military was replaced by the aggressor. Belarusian technique, which without even repainting it, therefore , it can be said that it looks like this chain of provocation is connected with the fact that lukashenko is essentially immobilized permanently so that he does not even have any resources to defend in the event to remove him from power by the same pm wagner, for example, he had nothing to protect himself, in essence, the lower generalship and the troops, there is a huge gulf between the troops, i understood that only they would crawl on the territory of ukraine and they would simply kill the belarusian troops the military understands very clearly, especially since there are still 15 officers who are patriots of belarus, despite everything , there is a big trauma in the military because lukashenko used the military in uh well, lets say that they are devastating uh public protests in the 20th year and he made them cocriminals, thats why he thought that now they, as cocriminals with lukashenka himself, should die together with lukashenka , they dont want to die with him, thats why here its just , well, there is a huge such, uh, i would say the boas tactic in the slow suffocation of lukashenka and belarus simply putin has already clamped down on them, fixed them and, so to speak, is releasing gastric juice and in order to finally rework belarus, lukashenko obviously still hopes to physically survive putin, that putin will die before lukashenka, and some of his faithful lukashenko people think that belarus can get out of the way like bulgaria in the second world war, being, well, how is it such a nazi coalition, bulgaria in the last literally weeks of the war managed to jump out and join the antihitler coalition, so most likely that lukashenko is somehow trying to get out of his way, but it seems to me that belarus is just uh, well, in the event of the defeat of russia, uh, it will be necessary to introduce external governance into belarus. On the part of the belarusians, nato is considered one of the most likely scenarios of the kremlins aggression against nato countries. To counter this threat, the North Atlantic Alliance has already deployed battalion tactical groups of up to 800 american soldiers to 1,600 people from the armed forces of germany, the czech republic, norway, and the netherlands, but this did not prejudice the netherlands at all. The landing of two belarusian helicopters on the territory of poland, which happened on the first of august, and accordingly, it did not affect the fact that the russians continue to stir up the topic of poland, that poland received some land from stalin putin quite often speaks according to your opinion, but putin still can he go to raise these rates when he will simply meet in a duel directly with the nato countries and create some kind of miniconflict , the result of which will be some kind of peace talks that they will sit down at the negotiating table putin will say but i have always been a peaceloving person and i just wanted to negotiate with the North Atlantic Alliance and not with ukraine. Well , what about ukraine . This is the truth of ukraine. The fact is that the slovak corridor, well, lukashenko himself, by the way, spoke up, so to speak, because he repeatedly stated that belarus claims the. Kaliningrad region in prussia. That prussia should belong to belarus, that is objectively, that is, he traded with putin on this topic, and the kremlin understood that it can be used in any attack on its oleksii corridor. It is simply senseless, because the us Tank Division is stationed there in the north of poland, and the level of equipment of the polish army itself is such that the poles will simply grind it, by the way, the poles will not be afraid to strike on the territory of belarus, on the placement camps, eh, it depends on if there is aggression, eh, i want to remind you that one of the scenarios that we did not mention is also the role of eh, well, a Certain Mission of the wagnerites, which involves the escort of new waves of refugees on the border with poland and belarus, and they will no longer be escorted by belarusian border guards, but by banners. They are talking about the fact that the belarusian side warned that there would be a movement of helicopters in the area, because of which poland did not, well, in the case of the flyover, it did not react in such an aggravation because the belarusian side allegedly warned about these flights, the only thing there is a deviation from the course. Its simple, you can say one such thing , if there is a strike, an attempt to break through to kaliningrad, it means that it completely blocks russia in the baltic sea, completely without shipping by sea and blocking air traffic of the kaliningrad grouping of troops, and the hell with them there it is, in fact, well, well, i would say land crimea, because there is a huge number of launchers from kander, there is a huge number of troops, and even a certain number of ships are located in the kaliningrad enclave, therefore, in the case of any aggressive actions against lithuania or poland, kaliningrad will be blocked from the air and from the sea, and it will literally bend in two months, they will invite peace , so i do not rule out that putin can somehow sell defeat to his population there may be such an option, but after such an aggression, when kaliningrad will be blocked and kaliningrad is unlikely to return. Russia needs drones, and with these drones they will er er bomb ukrainian territory , do you think there is an opportunity in ukraine, and the main desire is still to hit those objects that will threaten the National Security of ukraine, so that despite all the facts that you mentioned in the course of this program regarding the possible participation of belarusians in this war, it is a technique, and sometimes they say that the belarusians even stood in chernobyl, reached chernobyl, but did not go any further, or whether 5,000 belarusians fought in the russian army in why, therefore, according to you, why according to you, ukraine is so cautious about what is happening in belarus , and will not just hit several points there to simply demonstrate, including lukashenko, what can happen when he starts shooting ukraine on the territory of the republic of belarus well, it seems to me that ukraine will not be because in zelenskys cabinet there is such a figure as vice Prime Minister kubrakov, who can even claim the role of Prime Minister, this is the nephew of the minister of internal affairs of belarus and the map of the belarusian people, ivan kubrakov. It seems to me that this family line of communication is uh well, it still works as an additional channel for the belarusian elite, and it was not for nothing that zelensky took kubrakov with him to washington. Er, this is also one of the options for why we actually did not respond to the belarusians or the opinion. I want to remind you that zelensky already as an advance liquidated er tank battalion in ovruch, which er was part of the Airborne Troops of ukraine and essentially goals in this direction is why it seems to me that sometimes it is through some ukrainian functionaries that lukashenko tries to send signals to the west, well, actually, i do not rule out that kubrakov is such a connection. Thank you, mr. Volodymyr. It was volodymyr tsibulko, a political expert. Friends, we work live on the espresso tv channel, as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms, for those who are currently watching us live on youtube and facebook , please like this video so that it can be trended on youtube. Well, subscribe to our pages in social networks, in addition, we conduct a survey on youtube, we ask you about the following have you encountered scams in military commissariats or in some other way in Territorial Assembly centers yes no your option please write if you do you know or know the facts about the facts of corruption, please write them in the comments below, we have a contact yevgeny wild participant of the ukrainian russian war, former platoon commander of the aidar battalion, mr. Yevgeny i congratulate you for the sake of seeing you on our air good evening glory to ukraine glory to the heroes lets start with the good day that was from the good morning that we had because a naval drone arrived or two naval drones arrived in novorossiysk and the Security Service of ukraine together with the military naval forces made a landing ship of the occupiers named elena a mountain gun and one of the drones also hit the oil lighthouse. Lets hear what zelensky said about it today. He spoke very briefly after the meeting with the heads of the Law Enforcement agencies , but it was worth hearing. Today was the report of the head of the sbu. The content will not be announced. I will only say that we are all grateful to the security of ukraine for returning the war back to the aggressor state. What do you bring to the world with the same thing and find yourself . Lets first talk about this strike, yevgeny, how it affects the course of the russianukrainian war and the disposition of ukraine in the black sea basin. Quite seriously, by the way, the strike was a little more largescale, uh, not two drones happened, more uh, at least two hit only the oil terminal, and this terminal was seriously damaged, uh, one, as you know, actually sank a large amphibious ship the aliningor miner is directly mentioned in the old soviet cartoons where what do you call a yacht . Thats how it will float. Well, the liningor miners are hardly associated with the sea. Well, somewhere it was a trough and er floated. By the way it was the pride of the black sea fleet, it was the pride of the Northern Fleet. And from there, it went around the whole of europe from the subpolar latitudes, crawled through the Mediterranean Sea and came to our black sea. Well, as a result, the landing in odesa, as we know, did not happen. Instead, the great military career of this ship, which began in the distant 76th year , ended, it can be said that this ship of the Northern Fleet actually repeated its fate many soviet officers who served for many years in the north and earned a pension in order to live and die and provide a black sailor on warm shores well, actually, with this ship, this whole cycle took place, but in fact, as far as we know , he is not himself at least everyone saw him, at least they somehow brought him to the shore, even though he will never swim again , oh, and another one, actually, one more ship of the black sea fleet, in general, just after todays drone attack, if no one can find in any pictures, thats true, its less tiko well, but its very similar to the fact that he heroically just blocked the Novorossiysk Bay with his board and thats all eh what does this really mean at all, it means that we now have no to the point where we cant get the orks, thats it, theyre going through certain stages. First, we sunk the cruiser moscow with neptunes, and the russians realized that we have weapons with a radius of up to 300 kilometers, about 250, maximum 300, and they stopped enter this zone impression, but they believed that the whole sea was different and theirs further in august. Last year, our drones attacked their ships for the first time in the sevastopol bay, and then they realized that ohohoh, and the ukrainian hand was already reaching even to the crimea, and they blocked the sevastopol bay with a bunch of barricades its really difficult to get in now, but every time they leave there, you earn a hit, but at the same time, they were at least completely calm, what is that, what is the pressure on veres, its deep dust, its absolutely safe, the harbor is all they dont have a safe wallet, that is, now its absolutely obvious that the only question is how long will it take us to mount enough drones to get all their ships , and actually there are no spots where they could hide, but this is not the only thing that still needs to be addressed attention to this oil depot, which was reached by naval drones in novorossiysk, and on the same day, air drones reached the feodosii oil depot, lets remember that about a month ago, a little more than that, a very large oil depot was destroyed in the cossack bay in sevastopol, its not all coincidences. And this is a completely wellthoughtout company, besides the fact that we can now sink their ships , well, at any point of the black mole of mice. We leave them without fuel, because of all these ships and other soviet projects, they were built back then when fuel was considered in principle not metered and free, and they were all made not economically, but they eat diesel on an astronomical scale, and there are not so many bases where you can refuel such large and voracious troughs. There were about three such bases in sevastopol, one in feodosia, one in kerch, two in novorossiysk. That is, 10 how many times did we count six pieces, so it is already 3 after today, that is, a little more and these ships simply will not be able to go to sea, not only because it is dangerous, but also because there is nowhere lets go, yevgeny, president zelenskyy said twice this week about transferring the war to the territory of russia , the first time when they hit, or rather, the second time when they hit the tower of moscow city and the second time when the black sea area near novorossiysk was attacked, and the western partners are talking about the fact that it is ukraines business, what they are attacking, what they are attacking, and what they are giving in response to russia, but if our weapons are not there, the americans say that it is not necessary to use our weapons, the germans say whether it is necessary to use our weapons, or do we have enough potential for that to transfer the war to the territory of russia, in the literal sense, not only with naval drones and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles that fly to the Business Center of moscow city, but also with other weapons. Well, actually, what other weapons . Well, ballistic missiles. We currently do not we produce cruise missiles. We currently do not produce, and unlike drones, this is not something that can be done quickly in the conditions of some garage startup of some volunteer team, and another thing is that the quantity and quality of these foreign drones and marine drones is very in fact, naval drones are improving, which already reach at least 1,000 km. This is actually already the fourth generation compared to the first simple ones like me that attacked sevastopol in august of last year, that is, in a year, we actually passed in terms of sea Drone Industry we have passed the path that western Companies Take a little over 10 years ago with aerial drones. In fact, a year ago we had nothing at all that could fly further than 100 km , and now our beavers are already hovering over moscow. The defense can do nothing against this. Now the next question is the next task before us is to move from small batches to Large AssemblyLine Production so that we produce them in the same quantity as, for example, the iranians they produce shahids for muscovites, or as muscovites themselves produce lancets, we already have drones of much better quality than russian and iranian ones, but as far as the question of quantity is concerned , none of our teams have yet moved to largescale conveyor production, well , this is exactly what they are currently working on very actively in scabies quite actively commented on the situation in the south of ukraine, in particular, the strikes on ismail, we will hear how it is and see how it happened in the studio of the propaganda channel, looks like the strikes and ismail were we predict that after the cancellation of the grain deal, russia declared the north of the black sea a dangerous navigation zone for foreign ships, the sovereign forbade them to go to the ukrainian port in odessa, they were afraid to go. Here you are, izmail, some of the grain trucks that left did penetrate, and they did it through Romanian Territorial waters , the witch was counting on the fact that moscow will not sink the socalled peaceful vessels and destroy the fort with foreign grain carriers, the calculation of Kyiv Poroshenko always turned out to be wrong here , he copied, she spoke so proudly about it, but this it was before novorossiysk, now we understand that obviously the same problems will arise in all vessels that go from novorossiysk to the Mediterranean Sea because we know that 50 of the seas exports and imports take place through the novorossiysk port, in particular, by the way, very large volumes of oil go like this not only the russian one, but the kazakh one as well, eh, its more like a problem with kazakhstan, were not at war, and here russia is selling oil through its ports, eh. So , what do we have at this moment, we have at this moment of the grain agreement from which russia came out we have the shelling of the south of ukraine and we have ukraines response to these shellings in the black sea near the russian well, that is, one, conditionally speaking, well, roughly, that is, in response, we are not quite well, not quite, i did not count the difference, their the blows are blows to the civil infrastructure, these are really very serious blows to our economy , in particular to that industry, which is one of the last to bring taxes to our budget, but it in no way directly affects the the course of military operations, that is, it will affect us in a military sense. Well, only if the war drags on for years, but the strikes that we are making now, they absolutely directly affect their ability to conduct military operations right now, that is, these strikes really speed up and bring our victory, but in this there is a huge difference, piskovs comment about why the americans intervene or do not intervene in the situation on the black sea as part of the grain deal, where are the americans, and the americans must and still want to contribute to the fulfillment of the part of the grain deal read by russia and promise that they are thinking about it . It has already been said more than once, including by president putin, that this is a typical blackmail of terrorists, mr. Yevgeny, i. E. That is exactly how he should not be treated in any way, and how can you help in this situation and our grain traders who will export grain and in general because of the safety of our ships in the black sea and not only ours, who should derail this situation and get rid of the pirate putin . Well, im afraid that the only one who can ensure the safety of shipping in this case is our armed forces when fully will destroy the black sea fleet of the russian federation. To be honest, i dont have other ways. Well, theoretically, any other state could do it, which would destroy the black sea fleet of the russian federation, but other states are clearly not planning to fight with russia at the moment. Okay, we dont care. We are fighting directly. Well, accordingly, more attention should be given to the black sea fleet. As soon as he follows the moscow cruiser and the alineor cruiser, who is he, a miner , he will immediately calmly give up shipping until then. To be honest, i have not seen many options for turkey, bulgaria, romania, and other countries. Which are part of the North Atlantic Alliance, which could well do something in order to ensure their safety. First of all, i simply cannot help but remember the wonderful man from odessa. Unfortunately , the late Mykhailo Zhvanetskyi is in the territory in which region could three states like switzerland be located, but they are not located, they could do a lot of things, but it is absolutely obvious that they do not plan to do this because of the existing things. Thank you, mr. Yevgeny, for the conversation. This was yevhen, a wild participant in the russianukrainian war, a former battalion platoon commander aidar friends we continue to work live on the espresso tv channel as well as on our youtube and facebook platforms for those who are currently watching us on youtube please take part in the vote we are asking you today about have you ever encountered corruption in the military committees or territorial recruitment centers, and what is your option . At this moment , more than 300 people have already voted in this survey. They have encountered corruption facts. I also want to tell you that we have a wonderful espresso tv website , you can read our news online and find out about the most important things in ukraine, the world and the front line on the espresso tv website. Visit us. We work for you 24 hours a day. A day, seven days a week, more prompt information is available on our website espresso tv well, and in our social networks, join our social networks, watch our broadcast and i say goodbye to you. I wish you good health. Take care of yourself and your relatives. See you on monday until see you, welcome to kyiv, eateries from ukraine in the london studio, jeff died, today in the program we are talking about the attack on the port of novorossiysk , naval drones hit the base of the russian fleet, damaged a large Amphibious Assault ship olenihorsky hornyak, officially ukraine did not comment on this attack, but sbu sources tell some details about what kind of drone it is and what kind of ship it is, we say throughout