Hello and welcome. Im quite richardson in berlin and im thrilled to introduce our panel this week. We have a flat him here, yes, above officer and a journalist with dw mika, with long a senior fellow at the munich security conference. And joining us today from munich moreno moran, a military analyst with Kings College london. Warm welcome to you all. Read a after months of essentially stalemate. Were starting to see some movements again in the war and ukraine. Russia making games in the northeast. Is this the new offensive that many analysts were expecting to take place this spring or summer as well . I will be very careful as to describe it as the actual offensive. I believe this is just a prelude to the offensive because what were seeing now, obviously a new front has been opened in the north in har keith. There are some talks about the potential of su me entering the hes also being attacked by Russian Forces. However, we see activity along the entire line of contact. So from my perspective, this is just a way thats why shes trying to gain a better position, a more favorable position for itself in order to street. Im afraid we just cant hear the last bit of what youre saying. So i would turn over to nico to, to pick this up. We have the United States top diploma anthony blinking in care of this week. And we know that one senior us official, basically acknowledge that this trip was to reassure the ukrainians. He said this was quote, a very difficult situation. Can you read between the lines for us here . What is the United States thinking about the situation . Well, 1st of all, i would have preferred the secretary blinking to go to hockey if instead of playing guitar in the club. And the situation is difficult also because the us took 6 months of a domestic discussions. Most of them unrelated to your train at all to delay the necessary military assistance to ukraine. So there is some responsibility of the us and a difficult situation. The ukrainians know themselves that the situation is difficult. The question is, what is done to help them, especially with ad defense, which seems to be the biggest problem for the equations and they are, i believe we have still not doing enough. And we will certainly come to that later in the show. But 1st flight, im here, you know, within russia were also seeing big changes as well, boots and has been swapping people out of the top jobs in this re shuffle of the government. And im, im curious why were seeing this now. Even though it seems like things arent going so badly for russia was it was expected for, for him to change something to make some changes on the government positions as over some of the president ial elections. So it was expected. There might be some movements um, but besides the facts who lead state defense ministers, title, the lowest of all someone else. As long as was an important mistake, some powers and there are. So she is the only one who decides whats going on on the general, on the general was the front. So we can say its talking about the in terms of me that there is to have to start to strengthen training the ukraine. But it did, did i some of stay, some power sensitive chief over the russian unit. Ill stop. So she decides whats going on on the, on the Mental Health and the ukraine and the below sufficient. But this is being described as pragmatic. Oh, professional economist indeed. But as i mentioned all on already, 14 is the only one who, who is there any deciding to the general direction of the russian politics. Okay, so we have put in, you know, in a way keeping us guessing, with what has been the most significant change as to his military commander, since russias full scale invasion of ukraine. And as weve hinted, even one of pollutants closest allies was not spared in this region awful. Side by side and good friends. Thats how ill show you cool and polluted and present, that their relationship for years. 68 year old show who has ever seen the ministry of defense since 2012, his time in office. So the annexation of crimea, and the invasion of ukraine. But he did not deliver what boots and had hoped for a quick capture of keys. Now he is being replaced by the civilian and right below self boots in hopes that the form administered of Economic Development will provide a boost to the alms industry in particular and use that. So you, course military technology is changing very quickly, which if we want to be successful, we must always be one step ahead of the we can see that the initial competing and showing go his new position, the secretary of the National Security council. Replacing nikolai pa to chef will. So a long time alley of putin. What is persons a human restructuring . The military leadership academy. Id like to talk a little bit more about troy. Go out of that job at. Do you think these are ghosts here of of you have danny, for goes and the, and the wagner group chief for those who, who dont remember, he went after show you how hard a year ago there was a viral video in which he was a strongly criticized no gosh, so if you have any goals and youve been able to go to the history so its, its gone so its not, not, not public any anymore. And then a replacement of a cycle. My, they have technical reasons for us about the big question is, what was important ones to achieve or be the most of . And the question is, if ross is going for the long cold war for the long war, isnt mention, can ukraine stand for a long core . Is isabel, is that our 2nd and is the most important questions for the rest and public . Because if the rest and rest and Society SystemCongress Wants the support to gain no longer war against trust, so you kind of need more supports from now. So lets pick a little bit about his replacement then moreno. Why do you think were seeing who general pointing a, a civilian, an economist as his defense minister . Well, i think that andre below sophie has done and very good job in his previous position. And its certainly somebody who is more scientific and who is also oriented towards more of steve control of the military industry. And if were looking at the russia and see how it has behaved during this time since how it impacted the russian economy, we can see that the sanctions didnt achieve the desired effect meetings at whatever below. So who was doing . He was doing the right thing and so for put into perspective what he needs right now is somebody in the ministry of defense. He has somebody for the military as has already been sab. Good. Rosmer remains in his position, but he needs somebody who understands economics and who is able to take care of the military. Industrial complex, especially as a defense spending increases and to integrate it into the overall russian economy and ensure that it functions efficiently. Also perhaps removing those layers of corruption or assembly years of corruption which were standing in the way of the proper and Civil Military cooperation and military innovation. Because when you think of this, can bellows of clean up rushes, military complex and make it more efficient to think of 1st of all, and i believe cycle is also a civilian. I think hes coming from the emergency services, but he was never an expert in military matters. And so i go and goes, ill see him off. I mean, they have messed up this aggression against your crime. No military goals have been achieved even after 2 years. So from the effect that the same of is staying there, i would draw the conclusion that loyalty is still more important than competence and put in has made this movement. No, but i would not start with the hypothesis that this would work. I mean, shall i go ahead and many deficits, but he is a very important part of the system put in for many years. And he was able to quickly trone and lot of resources around, especially when the initial phase of the invasion got botched. And russia had to go to other plans. Um, so lets see if this really works and the russian war economy and to approach to this. I mean, we are hearing a lot about this and it seems to me, part of it, at least is information warfare. What i see is all tanks getting out of storage, being refurbished, being drawn to the better field and destroyed very quickly. So i think from a risk and point of view of we should not be afraid of russia waging, waging a little more. We have enough resources if we want to, ive told you is russia and to do if you train everything its need, it needs and also the the efforts northwest of hawk. If a seems to me more like a supporting effort to, to Information Campaign. And they are competing in target that its a, getting the population in hockey if and maybe so you mentioned you have to leave to cities. But its not something that way i would, i would suspect, serious military results from the russian side. But just to just to make things clear, if i understand you correctly, you think this does indeed signal that food is digging in for a long war of attrition. And the fact that hes, hes an economist, does this not signal the fact that futon is trying to find someone who can really put the economy at the service of the Defense Industry to put in his digging in for a long war. I think that is clear since april may 2022, when the initial plan did not work out. But theres nothing to be afraid of from our point of, you know, military goes by the, on the roof off. The russian side has been the chief so far and i think we can make sure that also the new military goals will not be achieved. What i think is changing is that russia is more successful now in the Information Campaign and just trying to create a picture that its hopeless to defend against frustrating that to us. And when the divorce academy is running and it seems that is impressing many people, including here in germany and then the rest of the general flight im here is that also your opinion . Do you think we should be afraid of eligible suff . And what he can do with the rest of the economy, you know, youre still going to be afraid of the loss of not at all. And your son should be afraid of being not clear about your goals, because its contradiction a signal so good. And from, from europe on the one side, theres a lot of talks about delivering dollars to your credit and delivering more reasons. And is it to face their entity . There is no dollar is the dividend through the ukraine, no more the funds and ukraine facing their future, lack of manpower as well. So its not only about people in the system, so in the restroom, but the lack of, of men power in the inside the ukraine, which is a problem. But what, what night nato consult for the. Okay. So its a contradictory positions contradictory signals going going from the rest on the one site youre supporting your ukraine on the other side. Not really. And this is what, what shell do face to face, but the rest of the site is ok. Lets take a closer look at the situation in the northeast of ukraine. Clearly, it is in a dangerous position here with Russian Forces pushing across its North Eastern border and taking over the past week controls more land every day than they have since the start of the war in the region. No, says car keys is under constant fire soldiers, ill guessing the remaining people out of the homes, one off to the right here. Come on, lets go. Only take your document, what the they can only take the battery essentials, not knowing if and when theyll be able to return. In Eastern Ukraine lies vaux chungs directly on the front line. Its not far from coal keys, which is home to millions of the ones. 19000 inhabitants on the 500 remain. You lie down and one to will they kill me now . Oh, and then i want to sure for those 500, it could now be the last charms to flee from the Russian Troops. The homeland has become the focal point of the current fighting. We drove through the city center. I cant see it without crying. Everything is trembling when the russian army is testing the Ukrainian Resistance at several points up the front can the we can soldiers with stand the russian attacks so we have thousands of ukrainians evacuating from the harkey of region. Niko, many of them are reporting that this 2nd russian invasion is for them even worse than the 1st one at the start of the war. Can tell us a little bit more about what you think were seeing unfold here. Or russia has been telegraphing this for a long time. The air attacks and then you intensity on hockey. Different also pop the on. So me and showing you stopped at some weeks ago. So this was clear that this what would come and its the right move by the ukrainians to evacuate. Something village is to have a defense position somewhere deeper into the country and to defend there. But of course, this will lead ended let it for the last day is for russia been seen as taken territory. But it took most of to, to re territory because you create a vector 8 at the villages. Now that the real defend started under your great insight into creating or support and reserves and use more 45 positions, rushed off for the last 2 days is having more difficulties, the suffering, very heavy losses. And i think russia has to decide, know where to put it in, in reserves to continue this would continue with its plans to do a similar efforts in the so me region. But lets be clear here. This is the supporting effort to what is going on in general and to russian to text me a trust if yall and other places in the east, they continue at the same time why this is going on and stretching the Ukrainian Defense has been spreading. The ukraine and resources that is in effect, i think that russia is achieving marina, is that also what you think is going on here . Put this into perspective for us as how do you think Russian Troops were able to advance so far and, and so quickly in the northeast and under to im afraid weve got technical issues here again. So watermark, if you could, id ask you to jump in for that question too. What do you think happened . What went wrong here and ukraines defenses and looked at it as something went wrong because your brain is on the, on the limits because youre getting put the huge resources to the defense. Lions in the front line was almost more than 1000 kilometer long. Now we have a new piece of this is fighting against is and you conventions already. So uh, ukraine face as i mentioned already. Um there michael likes to open demand power in the more weight points from the front of the risk, more resources and more wind power moment. But as a, as in more, more troops on, on, on this, on this. And this is just another one problem for the, for the, okay, and government. So it is an empty council for this trip to europe. Yesterday, she was supposed to go to spain and portugal to canceled it on short notice because of this complicated situation on the front. So even if its on the adjuster, actually informational law for, for it, whats most facing critic is, its being treated very seriously by the by the presidency lensky. And indeed, we even heard a ukrainian commander criticizing this as quoted at the terrible Border Defense as marina. Lets see if we can bring you back in here. Whats your view, why Ukrainian Defense is warranted, better prepared . Or hey, there are many reasons for that. And we have seen that ukraine also has a problem of corruption as was a former defense minister resnick, of um, so im not sure what exactly happened. But apparently the defense is that were supposed to be constructed. Havent been constructed in, in, in the way expected. And so the logical thing that has been done by ukrainian troops is pulled back and let the russians enter. This is why we have seen this rapid tonight, in spite of the Russian Forces not withstanding, of course, it has drawn the attention of the ukrainian command and the necessity to decide where to send the reinforcements. Do we stay entrusted yard or do we send them to harkey . And i think that was a plan, old gas, or to divert the attention from more important directions. Because if we look at the map, what the russians are trying to do is that theyre trying to cut off ukrainian troops and cut through the grouping if they can get to colorado, well still need of it. So i think that the idea here is to develop the breakthrough that they had in nor tourettes in, in west, off of the youve got in order to get them for is or west. And the point that im talking about specifically i saw it on skin from a tourist. And hark youve, for now i think is more of a distraction because they just dont have the manpower and theyre not going to commit resources to take both chance front of it. Do a frontal assault on group of chance and or a frontal assault on heart to you. Okay, so ultimately meant to spread that ukraines forces then you can, weve mentioned blinking was on that unannounced visit to cube this week. There he said, us weapons will make a real difference. Where are these weapons . Do you think . Do you think so too . There are some of them are there and if they are they are, they make a real difference. And we can see that the new version of attack him as the ground based precision fire makes a difference on try me. Uh, thats the only a region where the ukraine can still put some pressure on the russians and the dust it and very significant, i think a text thats being conducted there. So yes, us weapons make a difference. Still blinking did not answer the question on what is the strategy of the u. S. W. A. D u. S. One to ukraine, helped to help ukraine to push russia or is it just this kind of slowed the recipe that divide house was perceiving as a set of g and nothing on the one hand divide . How strategy of denying restaurant achieving is for him as has been a success. On the other hand, many in ukraine have to feeling the dripping off. The support is a recipe for a slow drip death for a few great. And i think its up to the white house to make a different strategic choice. We hear that now and your package is formed immediately after this one. So maybe there is some speeding up. And jake set of upside even alluded to higher speed of deliveries. But there is always a big difference between delivery is being announced and having a communicative effect. And delivery is really arriving to the troops in ukraine. Yeah, these things take time, dont they avoid them . Or do you think brushes taking advantage of this window where your brain is still waiting with deliveries of so look late because this is a deliberate, a delay of many months or so huge the drastic, obviously will take advantage of