People who study pipework health have been saying listen, this is going to happen. Its only a matter of time. This is a message from the governments chief medical officer coronavirus. You should now only go out to an absolutely necessary for food medicine, work or exercise. Always try to stay 2 meters apart, to not meet others outside your household, even friends and family. I think this disease is remarkably infectious, even compared to influenza in the flu. And so even though we were prepared, were almost overrun by the ferocity of the pandemic. Is highly transmissible, like all the crying about it, which would only cause a common cold. You know, if youre in the room with someone with a cold, youre likely to get the cold. But the problem with this virus is it doesnt stop in the nose. It doesnt stop in the long. It can spread very rapidly into the rest of the body. And thats why it is such a dramatic disease portobello road in the heart of Londons Notting Hill district, normally packed with people and tourists from all over the world. Now in march 2020, its deserted streets shuttered, shops, closed schools, empty public transport, queues. The deadly covered 19 virus that hit the world in the early months of 2020, neck to scenes like this, everywhere. We all brave. And its very difficult to completely isolate the brass of one person from another. So that it is likely the respiratory diseases that are the respiratory viruses that are going to be the real problem in terms of epidemics and pandemics, you know, for the, for now at, and in the future. But this is just the latest in the series of pandemics that is devastated populations and societies across the world through the eightys. When i was a child in the fiftys, there were many diseases around. You know, i got, have otitis those polio or do you see people who were crippled and we were aware all the time of the to the dangers of infection and the doctor would come to go home and treated for that. But whats happened since then weve brought in antibiotics. We brought in factories and gradually weve driven many of the Infectious Diseases not necessary out of the rich countries, but into into Hidden Health care components of the richer countries often of need hospitals away from the community. This hasnt happened in, in many parts of the world, for example, on the african continent where they dealing with daily diseases like this on a daily basis, each to see slightly different from every other disease. And the problem with this 19 virus is that we, we cant quite projectile. This is going to turn out. We cannot predict at the moment how long immunity will last, whether well be solid immunity, whether everyone becomes, you know, whether you become more immune if you had a more severe illness and have less immunity. If you tried to of quickly, we just dont know movies are still questions, are up in the air, diseases and viruses such a small cocks people on a plane. You bet she learned since an influenza a, some of the most brutal killers in human history, outbreaks of these diseases across international borders. I defined as pandemics. How did they change the world in the past . Why do they still happen . And how will they change the world again . This will be a can to new and battle. I think we thought we were winning the battle after brown night in fiftys, and this is a reminder of the covert night in our brain that it is a continuing battle and it will continue on into the future. Through the ages, men have searched and found cures for new diseases and they doing the same. Again, the idea that vaccine saw drugs or silver bullets is rather naive or it certainly needs you need to be far more nuance in your thinking there. These are extremely valuable weapons in the armor against Infectious Diseases, but they, they suffer from 2 problems. Sometimes when we want them to work, they dont work. And sometimes they cause problems in addition to the problem solved. And thats true of drugs and its true of actually humans have always caught diseases from animals. In fact, most new infections and diseases come from wild life. It really goes back full time when humans 1st became urbanized and told clusters themselves where theyve moved from being on together as if you like into more organized society. Thats probably where the 1st many pandemics occur. Very history of human human civilization has been increasing contact with animals starting with agriculture, you know, where we had on domestication of animals. We had also things like grain stocks and such which brought in other non domesticated animals like mice and rats, and wrote other rodents. Weve had expansion into wilderness areas with agriculture, with need for housing need for lumber, or need for raw materials, other or materials, which brought us in contact with animals. So theres been these tendencies to have increasing contact with animals that we have not had contact with before. Which environmental change is a speeding up this process. While the explosion of city living in International Travel means that when these diseases emerge, they can spread more quickly. Most animals carry a range of cottage inspect, and viruses which can cause disease. A pathogen is an organism that causes disease. The pathogens evolutionary survival depends on infecting new hosts and jumping to others is one way to do this. The new hosts, immune system tries to kill off the new pathogen, meaning that the 2 unlocked eternally in an evolutionary game of trying to find new ways to vanquish each other. We encounter new calendars all the time. The vast, vast majority of the pathogens being counter are either not very successful at infecting humans or transmitting between humans or are dealt with very easily. Barmy ancestor, no, there is some very small fraction thats able to infect humans directly from Something Like bird flu. A very small fraction of those are able to actually transfer from one human to another, such as murders. I mean, even smaller fraction of those are able to jump from one human to or another human with enough transmission that it could actually cause an outbreak wild animals, often harbor viruses. Bats for instance, can carry hundreds of them. And viruses jumping from species to species can ultimately infect people with human. Urbanization officious cycle develops more people bring more deforestation. Human expansion and loss of habitat ultimately kills off predators, including those who feed off regiments with the project has gone, or at least their numbers sharply diminished. The rodent population explodes and the studies in africa show. So does the risk of soon not it does seems that the situation is only likely to get worse as it has been for centuries, a major proportion of east asia population still lives in one. Larry and other nice asian is expected to continue for decades. Tropical regions rich in bio diversity, already hold a knowledge pool of credit unions, great increasing the chance that a noble pathogen, the farming system throughout african nations doesnt help on both continents. Many families depend on 6 systems farming on a miniscule supply of livestock disease, control, food and housing for those animals is extremely minute and cattle chickens and pigs, which can carry endemic disease up, often in close contact with each other and a variety of non Domestic Animals and humans live on the markets, common place throughout a journal, africa teacher, crowded conditions on the internet, mixing of multiple species, including humans. This team plays a key role in how a killer pathogen could emerge and spread between species. Another risk is bushmeat hunting and butchering, which is particularly widespread in subsaharan africa. These activities not only threaten the animal species and can revoke the change ecosystems, they also bring people and wild animals together. Bushmeat hunting is a clear primary cause zoonotic disease transmission with bush made while youre doing is youre going out there and youre traveling or catching wild on moles which might by which might scratch and then your butchering them, which puts you in direct contact with a lot of their bodily fluids and so its very easy for pathogens to jump from these wild on both through human sort of the mechanism of push me an alternative to bush meat is factory farming, you know, high density farming. But then that can do you causes the conditions that are right for pathogens jumping it from a while population into a domestic population like domestic poultry in a way that allows the power gen to jump into human population. So is traditional chinese medicine, which purports to provide remedies for a host of conditions like arthritis, epilepsy, and erectile dysfunction. Although no Scientific Evidence exists to support. Most of these claims. Asia is an Enormous Consumer of traditional chinese medicine products, chai, against their rhinos, pangolins and other animal species approach. So their body parts could be mixed into these questionable medication. This too is a major contributor to increasing animal human interaction. Demand is likely to go up as an Online Marketing source along with asias relentless economic growth. These trends have become very well established in the last 100 years that plagues and condemn ics have been around for as long as man himself, the ones that really affect all influences. Other ones have these large demographic impact. 30 percent of the population is killed. That with drawls, an awful lot of people from the labor force to just drop social, Political Institutions and ways that make it very popular to recover. The plague of justinian was a pandemic that afflicted the byzantine eastern roman empire and especially its capital. Constantinople in the 6th century merchant ships arriving from black sea ports, harbored rats that carried fiends infected with plague. This became one of the deadliest pandemics in history, resulting in the deaths of an estimated 252100 100000000 people during the following 2 centuries. It was named after empress justinian the 1st to call the disease, but survived the outbreak begun of 542. But then there were current episodes of plague over the next 1012 years or so. And we know that by the end of this period, the byzantine empire was thrown into turmoil, said Something Like more the population was stricken and dawoud, the losses of rome itself, where huge. So it struck right at the heart of the roman empire. The usual narrative about the plague justinian is that the us was result of the breakup of the byzantine empire and the beginning of what were known as the dark ages. In the same way that we used to, you know, covert starting slowly. It starts with, you know, one or 2 people falling ill, not really realizing, but in this case, we know that infection is a very, very rapid. Once people develop some sort, they would progress of our soil, severe illness, and end up dead in a matter of days. So it was shocking unfair for the deadliest plague in history was the 2nd major case of people on a plane commonly known as the black death. The dance of death, it down from a car up and agree on the universality of death was a common painting motif during the late medieval period to kill between the 1st to haul them population up to 75000000 people. So yes, i mean the demographic impacts were immense. Also reaching 18 in the east in china. The disease spread west along the silk road, sic ane reaching the black sea in mediterranean trade ships, then spread the disease to the rest of europe. Italy 1st in sicily, in venice, in 1347, and the rest of europe over the next 3 years. This remains the deadliest plague outbreak in history. The bacteria yesenia pest is derived from the rat flea, which results in several forms of cake is believed to have been the cool once again. Technically, you would very quickly develop a fever headache start to feel very ill. But the distinctive marks that terrified everyone were when the plague was still has got into the lymph nodes. So under the arms back of the legs. So i mean, typically people who develop those symptoms would rapidly, most of the rapidly worsen and they would die very, very, very quickly. Monks, nuns and priests were especially hard hit since they cared for victims of the black to the plague created a number of religious social and economic up. He feels pressure found effects on the course of european history. It took 200 years for europes population to recover to its previous level. Land values declined by 40 percent, and there were neighbors shortages. But for the remaining working class food was cheaper and lands more abundant, heightening the end of feudalism. Suddenly there were a lot of farms the red sea because the farmer supplied the plague. So therefore, there was laughter was of the so that directly affected by the tide of the ban on olsons away. The other crucial factor of those farmers left suddenly found their wage bargaining power. Great, and we know this was a big issue because there was an attempt to restrict the ability of farmers to say, watch if you want me to farmers that you have to pay me more for my labor. Because i got a better offer from the next about how so many minority groups such as jews were blamed. This led many jews to relocate to poland where they were welcomed, leading to the Large Population there until the holocaust. During the 2nd world, people blamed particular ethnic groups, the jews in particular. Were seeing the plague. It was thoughts of parts of Eastern Europe even, you know, parts of sort of Northern Europe, the jews were responsible for. It somehow poisoned the wells. The problem with the fear that comes with them, it also means to blind people. They cant quiet except that theres nobody to blame here. This is an act of god if you like in the old pile. Its. d just one of those things they have to say, well, why do we have, we have to blame someone, seen a phobia. You have protectionism, you have had this sense of, we need to protect ourselves from those people who have this disease with all those consequences. Very similar to more of a conspiracy theories, people are poor thought. This was a plot by the state to the medical profession to reduce their population. Now we have peoples thinking that its 5 gene mobile networks. Now that is responsible for the cover of 19 pandemic can be a form of fake news that can spread when its not warranted. You know, being cases where in india, for example, where doctors have been beaten up because doctors are going to spread virus to them and things like in the past as now you have a lot of misinformation. And so, you know, for instance, with malaria, the name malaria comes from this notion of bad air, you know, because malaria was seen as caused by the type so characteristic of swamps and with influenza. Again, influence, it was seen as a merging from the influence of heavenly bodies. Thats how you end up with the payments. When so with leprosy, leprosy which are, is a very disfiguring yellowness, was seen as an affliction given to you by god. For your, for your sense, religious fervor and fanaticism and repetition, the wake of the black death chip says lapis and others with skin diseases such as acne, were killed throughout europe. The black death saw the introduction of quarantine in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague, epidemics cautious, port authorities required ships arriving in venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days. Before landing the word quarantine comes from the italian quadrant to gianni or 40 days while europeans had developed limited immunity against some diseases such as smallpox, hundreds of thousands were still dying from disease. The black death that never really gone away. And in the 17th century, if you want to play came back again. In london, the great play lasting from 6652666 was the last major epidemic of bubonic plague to occur in england. More than london certainly sits on the bones of the dead. London at that time is a city of about 448. 00 taken surrounded by a city wall. London 6 and city 5 is a very large city by stander. Its the largest of the 2nd largest in western europe. It has a population of perhaps 40450000 its main business. Its main reason is overseas trade, but it also has a major governmental function. It is the capital of the nation state and also of the beginnings of an empire. But many london as in 665, were poor a poverty stricken in a city with little or no sanitation and belching smoke coming from factories play. They could taken hold in many european cities such as amsterdam, in the ne, 16 sixties. It was in bells of cotton imported on top ships that the plague allegedly came to britain. The ships require 900 on the tents and other ports for 30 days before being allowed to travel up river. But it was too late. And one of the most difficult and dreadful things about the place was in the early part of it. You would know that it was going to happen. You could look back on the experience of the last century when they had been 4 or 5 major events. And you would know in may that it was beginning to be a major epidemic, and that it would get worse and worse up until at least september if you have walked over. And that literally thousands of people will die. So in a sense is that, is that for knowledge that experience that may help you to prepare for it in administrative terms. But it also means you are in no doubt about how bad its going to be in the great plague, killed an estimated 100000. People almost a quarter of londons population in just 18 months. As plague spread, a system of quarantine was introduced whereby any house where someone had died from play would be locked up. And no one allowed to enter or leave for 40 days. As soon as somebody in a household that used seems to have play or dies of they, then quarantine is imposed on that house. So the house, so is, is meant to be locked up with a border door with a mark on the door so that people cant go out. Another kind of quarantine is to take sick people to the pest house, which is not so much a hospital for curing people, but a place where sick people can be taken so they will not infect any other people. So thats part of the overall quarantine getting moving the sick in the plague sick out of the city. And so samuel peaks provided a contemporary account of the plague in his diary writing how empty the streets are and how melancholy, so many poor sick people in the streets full of saws. One eyewitness said that london became so quiet that every day life was like sunday and grass started to grow in the streets. Peaks right in his diary that the plague is making its cruellest dogs to one another. Daniel defoe in his journal of the plague, us 60 years later wrote, nothing was to be seen, but wagons and carts with goods, women, servants, children, coaches, filled with people of the better sort and horsemen attending them and all hurrying away. None of us knew about play