React. Or thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio are belarus born all go there in dover from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of broome and she says active support for the wounded bellicose leader would only damage russia the mood in the pro russian nor pro european also with this is causing a dont dilute experts on russia and Eastern Europe in a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic turn around. And a woman who dont have ellos own blood. Who is from the w. C. Russian desk in argues that so far. Nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. An interesting comment will come to that shortly 1st of all the old girl will go there and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. When i think we have to make a difference that people you know these brutus decided that it is protest and what the president and his elites are seen because i think there is quite a huge difference so for me it is obvious that the vast majority of people in belarus do not see the president as the legitimate president Saddam Hussein anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified and valorous will know that it has been happening for 20 years already very cautious are these the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last may be weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense maybe for him but not for the society this aside to has already changed and he will never believe that the g. To make any more as he used to be quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state and society has to have changed in belarus and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within the elites people start consider weighty and its really that lots days of him so its a good question that you ask i think that everybody in belarus is asking out this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because enoch is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to been all those in 2011 and then i witnessed already how people react how on one and so on react on very small protests i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from torture from torture of people in jail in their rules and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bureaus in to go on the street today and to protest especially given that you are convinced it will be made putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putting in hes an author or tarion leader and hes had several times that he would not tolerate a system of regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work and there was this would be a sigh and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only in theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because russian government see whats happening in. The street protests next in a row of mass protest in the former soviet republic red georgia ukraine even kyrgyzstan for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia so its going to moscow 20112012 its or similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with huge enthusiasm from the muscles in your government and Security Forces were very professional in suppressing these protests or im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw. Let me put it its going to very long an interesting political biography and there was a time when. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does it no longer does democracy. Put. Liberal im sorry said deputy couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy that sort of liberal side enemies of the russian state since even this street protest in russia 20112012 if you have a wave of state repression in russia since the time. Why then given this sort of this cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no way in such numbers why have they been willing to take beatings and be in prison. While there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election itself we have to understand that this society ballerinas was politicized at large. Before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the help protest movements but people will read you politicize and that not as due to the inconsequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state there were not tempted by the way expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exam for example well of he told people Something Like ah how can you leave if your weight is a 130 kilos or why are you walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know that for my actor in the tips queue this person was a really well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and that we have also common factors in new faces in politics and it just coincided all those factors that coincided. I think is just you know best thing for the question that he had all those factors at the year of elections so people will get not to contend with the state and also a very very personally with look at the so that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but a question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes which kind of guy who is not a petition she you know. Housewife wife. Blogger that that is a fine for me very highest high protest most people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko the. Strongman is however still in power he only troublesome by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he can visit is the situation developing. We need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what do you say the prospects of fresh elections would with the opposition accept the elections if president looking to were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. Before maybe you were answer because you were at this news about it was reported today that marina crescent was one of the few gross of the. Joint staff a month of the opposition declared that they are in a position with allowed to take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what. You said i guess its only he wants to win time and hes not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. It was only about how important a momentum is because the opposition it seems to happen quickly in the middle it was hugely important youre completely right it was then i think of the 1st just very dramatic pictures with great completely different dynamics that 10 years later 10 days later because now we have like a kind of a slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in europe and you know took 10 days to organize a special summit to be about was 10 days and. Yesterday before 5000 people in the streets in the better place in the pen its very means which is like a very low number compared to the previous administrations and the next one will be. 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen that have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change but some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of belarus this happy this free bellerose you are incredible we love you. This shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free elections. The protesters are related but they have still not one that lana scalia has become their leadership figure her husband who had actually been a candidate was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Repaired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. The nation must calm down. We must stay united. And thats a new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing and many workers in states that injuries and that state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at showing go hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is dead a beginning to see. Where have i think we have to be cautious when its a position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here in the best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and so i mean as a former housewife and now we have they were presented different from other teams of the most public candidates but this nation can lead to that to be observateur now its really not that you know in this position that we used to so there are people you know people from Civil Society. People from also from striking teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people. Who have gained some popularity that. Prize you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt even deal theyre not movement who they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem. Begins to to be a problem because. It was actually more or less i think their position their position actually. Because they didnt have a Leader People people learned to just sort themselves people learned to be solitary and people sort of denies they sort of organize through social media and so on so it was ok for them to be leader in the understood. And im just you know a symbolic figure a technical candidate that now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be sanctions eager who are also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious she get because 10 oscar is not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know in women power and so on so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot who is now in this committee that if this everything is still of the very beginning and we dont know if youve been maybe already have some contacts within this committee for you just mentioned women and women have played a very prominent part in the process movements in recent weeks or so he came to the streets in their thousands often wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against state violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places brutally beaten so theres a lot of talk though about a new generation of women coming to the fore in. A new generation of women in belarus. Its difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel to the last years because i was not at the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. The engagement the context between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were i 10 i said i can survive during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an impact on the also on the young women on generations how about womens rights and so on the research that we took for a young woman i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the idea use my oh yeah were hardly use them were very often sort of negative categories that is really giving to change we are told what section is a rag question is actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox a tradition that we have now because from the one hand it would have a woman here openly admits that she is actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband come out of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the recent society from the dictator but she openly admits that she wants to come back as long as you know the new elections that theyre. That from the other hand of course this this female trio that weve seen 3 weeks before election is of course it gave some other discourse to that they were saying politics because you know women where not see there is you know some kind of serious heaters and. Mentioned it himself for he said that that i was in a constitution of course was not written for women in afghanistan negative reaction came there at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before elections because people supported that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so. It was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that people saw a president at her it was just you know the sign of sort of directing to showcase whatever happens which us which just on your side and we do not agree with this where the president one other point we must come back to is it because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will that give to people in burma reuss or not i think on the one hand course they need. Solidarity they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and we see you know that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and the other. Is a movement finance and organized by some western actors as was said by the question go and also you can read this today and yesterday on all the different channels from Russian Politicians and from the state on russia saying the same scene to every so called colorful revolution in the in the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well so its basically the same narrative from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries or very the United States by the European Countries regime changes on the honest. Truth process not not on a legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its i mean from russia you know its been said very very often the good the protesters themselves people like holger im sure have been so has been saying you know this is not about being anti russian unproved european absolutely not thats the thats the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about the issues aside and European Union. From all the one hand people expect from a desperate and this illiterate is already there right and there is also you know for. Some funds. To help from the European Union to help those. From oppressions and to Civil Society support and sources are inserted into syrians the energetic roots and thats why i say differentiation because in the while the other on the other hand they should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of coordinate and also within this you public can meet and then they already offered mediation or xor they. Ask for mediation from the European Union but i think this you know mediation observation you have to be aware of cautious because it could really cause a very emotional reaction from russia so people are talking about mediation with this coordination can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not on to russian or not. Whatever that its really a very internal problem of the reasons that i want to new president and then most important thing for russia is that they would not become. Incense of. Im too russian and this is also not true its not to embarrass its not on to russian and its better just to tell that to base so and not to try you know bring this geopolitics within this society and to to i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no the geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already sets that and other off and Russian Politicians so they need this this image of they might be expecting that actually from the coordination can meet team may give a quote stress that once again that theyre really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking only. That Coordination Committee could also have said ok were actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that puts and hoping to hear but is this a wonder is this episode is this chain of events now this is an opportunity for putin or a threat. I dont see it as a threat for him its not of exist cyrus in reaction of the sco socalled street protesters to call or for evolution because russia exercising their actions theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was a huge surprise for at russian government state authorities so they react that after this and now theyre collecting experience with these street protests not only in