Will putin react. Or thanks very much indeed for joining us here on to the point and my guest in the studio are belarus spawn all eager to rid over from the Research Center for Eastern European studies at the university of brim and she says active support for the wounded bellicose leader would only damage russia the mood of the pro russian nor pro european also with this is because in a dorm flute experts on russia and Eastern Europe and a former moscow correspondent she says its almost inconceivable that russia would simply tolerate a democratic turn around. And a woman looking to to dont have ellos own. Who is from the russian desk he argues the. So far nothing has happened in belarus that putin really needs to react to. An interesting comment were come to that shortly 1st of all the girls will go there and over dramatic events in your home country are we seeing the final days of Alexander Lukashenko. Where i think we have to make a difference of people seeing you know these brutus decided that it is protest in and of what the president and his elites are seen because i think there is quite a huge difference there so for me it is obvious that the vast majority of people in belarus do not see the president as the legitimate president anymore i mean its not for the 1st time that the elections were falsified in belarus when all that it has been happening for 20 years already very cautious the last days of president lukashenko. These could be the last may be weeks months whatever but i could still imagine a scenario where when he would come back to the oppressions and a lot will depend on his communication with russia its a very important Factor Analysis so there could be a return to the status quo of 26 years. Not in that sense made before him but not for the society this aside to has already changed and he will never believe that the cheetah made any more as he used to be a quiet for a long time. But we definitely see that the relations between state and society has to have changed in belarus and we also see that you know also on the level of local office or it is and also some cases within the elites people start conceived in rape and its really the last days of him so its a very good question that you ask i think that everybody in there is asking about this question a lot really depends on what those people who are asking this question now will do it tomorrow because enoch is in the door blew do you say you are worried for the brave people of belarus why the next. I mean i have been last time to a bit of those in 2011 and there i witnessed already how people react how all men and so on react on very small protests i saw in 2011 and i mean we saw the videos and photographs from torture from torture of people in jail in their rules and i dont know if i would be so brave as a bit of those in to go on the streets today and to protest especially given that you are convinced that voting may putin is not going to allow democracy to take hold in belarus what makes you so convinced. This is a threat to his own power because. Putin he is an author a tarion leader and hes had several times that he would not tolerate a system of regime change provoked by mass protests on the streets because if that would work and there was this would be a science and its already assigned to the opposition and to normal people in russia that they could also that this is possible not only in theory but in practice its a big issue for russian government because russian government see whats happening in the. Street protests next in the role of mass protest in the former soviet republic red georgia ukraine even care just on for years trying to prevent such scenarios in russia so what is going moscow 20112012 its a similar happenings on the streets similar must protest with huge enthusiasm from muslims in the russian government and Security Forces were very professional in suppressing these protests no im afraid i hope for. The best but im afraid that could be not be the last they saw of location i mean let me put it its going to very long an interesting political biography and there was a time when. Sort of flirted with democracy do we know so we agree that he now does no longer does democracy. Declare its liberal im sorry said deputy couple of couple of years ago an interview with Financial Times he pronounced liberal democracy that the liberal side enemies of the russian state since this street protest in russia 2011th 2012 and if you have a wave of state repression in russia seems the time. Why even though given this sort of cautious or feeling that you have been expressing why have people been willing to go out onto the streets no one in such numbers why have they been willing to take beatings and be in prison. Well there are quite a lot of reasons for that and actually it happened long before the election itself we have to understand that this society ballerinas was politicized at large months before the election so i mean what what what was saw in the last week and also a several weeks before with this new you know female trio that were mobilizing people so in their regions they just gave a new dimension to the health protest movements but people were a good politicised and that not at us due to the in consequent information policy during the pandemic so people were either not tech by the actions taken by the state that were not techie by the expressions of the president himself because he made really some victim blaming expressions in terms of people who died from coronavirus or exam you know for example well of he told people Something Like ah how can you leave if your weight is a 130 kilos or why are you walking on the streets if youre already over 70 or 80 years old he was talking about you know that for my actor and bits obscure this person was really a well known and he never apologized so its really a people were shocked and its one of the factors and now we have also comic effect as a new faces in politics and its just coincided all those factors that coincide it. I think is just you know that best thing for the question that he had all those factors at the year of election so people will get not to contend with the state and also there are very angry personally with look that united under the slogan everybody but one which means everybody but the question and thats why they were actually ready to to give their votes which kind of guy who is not a petition sheet you know. Housewife the wife. Of blogger that it is a fine for me very highest high protest most of society so people just dont care who they just want to get rid of the president whos in power for 26 years ok everybody but one Alexander Lukashenko the. Strongman is however still in power he only travels by helicopter these days were told lets take a quick listen to how he in this it is the situation in belarus developing. We need to approve a new constitution so the opposition wont be against it it needs to be approved in a referendum because our previous constitution was approved in a referendum. And based on the new constitution and if you want it we will hold new elections for the Parliament Presidency and local government bodies. Because you know what do you say the prospects of fresh elections would with the opposition accept the elections if the president looks younger were going to stand again for the presidency. I heard. Before maybe you will answer because you were at this news about it was reported today that marina crescent was one of the few girls of the. Joint staff joined for months of the opposition declared that they are in a position would allow the question could take part of the new election. Interesting. But i mean what. I said i guess as only he wants to when tion he is not alluding to the it is all about me its all about momentum here because. It would tell me about how important a momentum is because the opposition which seems to happen quickly in the middle it was hugely important or youre completely right that it was then i think of the 1st the if youre so very dramatic pictures with great completely different dynamics that 10 years later then they slater because now they have like a kind of. A slowing economic and the numbers of people on the streets are decreasing in europe and you know 10 days dorgan has a special summit on be about was 10 days and. Yesterday. 5000. 00 people in the streets in the Bennett Place in the pen its very means which is like a very low number compared to the previous demonstrations and the next one will be sunday so 4 days without street actions interesting as weve already seen there have been protests in the past and very few people would accept that this is not a time for change but some have been absolutely euphoric and thats becoming a little bit more questionable as things as regards momentum change in the way that weve just been hearing. I think this is incredible weve never seen the people of bella bruce this happy this free delivery you are incredible we love you. This shows that were all united and that we want to protect our right to vote freely and stage free election is. The protesters are related but they have still not one. That line of tea kind of sky has become their leadership figure her husband who had actually been a candidate was arrested in a statement from exile in lithuania she confirmed. Paired to take on the responsibility and the role of leader of our country. The nation must calm down. We must stay united. So that new elections can be held. And the protests are continuing and many workers in states that threes and at state t. V. Are going on strike how long can look at showing go hold out. The answer to that question will depend on how much the opposition can remain united is the opposition united or is dead beginning to see. Well i have i think we have to be a bit cautious when its a position because its not really you know this classic Party Position and it would think about when we say a position here and a best its really kind of a Grassroots Movement that we are observing now and so i mean as a former housewife and then we have their representatives from other teams of the most public candidates but these go to Nation Committee of that to be observation out its really not that you know in this position that we used to so there are people from you know people from Civil Society. People from striking teams from the state on enterprises there are just people well known people. Who have you know. The. Price you know do you in your heart of hearts believe that you have a leader that you have a figurehead who couldnt deal theyre not movement they still do not have the lead in that has been the problem. Begins to have to be a problem because. It was actually more or less i think their position their position actually because because they didnt have a leader because. People learned to sort themselves people learned to be solitary and people sort of denies they are going to throw social media and so on so it was ok for them to go about leader in a distant. It is just you know a symbolic you get technical candidate that now it could be a problem because somebody should you know initiate those negotiations and there should be some few ground who also would be you know seen also by the authorities as a serious she get because its not such a figure for the president by no way because he doesnt just doesnt believe you know women power and so on so i would say that this could have been this former minister of culture and use that a lot now in this committee that if this everything is still of the very beginning and we dont know if youve been maybe already have some contacts within this committee for you just mentioned women and women have played a very prominent part in the process movements in recent weeks are taking to the streets in their thousands often wearing white and carrying flowers its been a peaceful protest against state violence some 7000 people have been arrested in many places badly beaten so theres a lot of talk about a new generation of women coming to the fore in belarus is even a new generation of women in belarus difficult to answer because i have not been i couldnt travel but i will say the last years because i was not the visa but this one point actually where we can also talk about the possibilities of European Union because the. The engagement the context between european Civil Societies in the European Union and the levels they were i 10 i said i can survive during the last years and i think this also has a kind of a an impact on the also on young women on generations how about womens rights and so on this might be this is time we took our young women i read. Somebody saying that until very recently the word feminist and semitism the the the idea you smile. Hardly used them were very often sort of negative categories that is refusing to change we are told whatever section is a reg question is actually ive been thinking about that for weeks its a very paradox a tradition that we have now because from the one hand we have a woman here openly admits that shes actually just a housewife and she is there only to help her husband come out of the prison and at the same time you know to rescue the rest of the recent society from the dictator but she opened ignatz that she wants to come back as long as you know the new elections out there. That from the other hand of course this this female trio that weve seen 3 weeks before elections of course it gave some of the discourse to the ricin politics because you know women were not see there is you know some kind of serious figures and it mentioned it himself for he said that the recent good situation of course was not written for women of more than negative reaction came there at once on his words and i think it was also one of his biggest mistakes before elections because people and supporters that line and her team actually out of protest and out of solidarity so it was not that much about politics of course they also wanted new elections but i did not think of course that the people saw the president or her it was just you know the sign of sort of direct into shock a whatever happens which is just on your side and we do not agree with this for the president for one of the point we must come back because in because you mentioned the role of the e. U. The e. U. Has issued this statement saying we stand side by side with the people of belarus how much comfort will i give to people in both groups or not i think on the one hand of course they need. Solidarity to they need moral support on the other hand its very dangerous and weve seen all that russian propaganda already is working and doing their job that they want to discredit the protests and the other. Is a movement finance and organized by some worst. This was said by the question go and also you can read today and yesterday on all the different channels from Russian Politicians and from state. Russia saying the same same to every so called colorful revolution in the. In the former soviet republic and in there are up countries as well so its basically the same narrative from russia is all the time this is from sponsored by very stern countries who are very the United States by the european countries. Changes on the on the very process not not on the legal way by elections but on the way of street protest so its from russian you know its been said very very often the broad the protestors themselves people like holger im sure have been sort of been saying you know this is not about being anti russian improve european absolutely not thats the thats the the most important single point people have been wanting to make i think we have to differentiate when we think about the Russian Society and European Union. From the one hand people expect so desperate to end this holiday which is already their right and there is also you know 5 some fines ready to help from the European Union to help those who suffered from oppressions and you know Civil Society supporting his outside interference the energy that it wants and thats why i say differentiation because on the while the other on the other hand they should be there are cautious not to make this impression that you know they are kind of coordinating also within this and your public can meet i mean they already offered me the ation or actually they asked for mediation from the European Union but i think this you know mediation observation you had to be aware of cautious because it could. Cause a very emotional but a reaction from russia if you are talking about mediation with this code nation can lead to i think it would be reasonable to at least try to invite russia so that to show that these protests i really am not to russia. Or not probably you or not probably not oprah china whatever that its really a very internal problem of the returns that i want to new president and the most important thing for russia is that the other is would not become craning in sense of. Russian and this is also not true its not to embarrass its not on to russian and its better just to let it so be so and not to try you know and bring this geopolitics within this society and to just to i think i think it would be very difficult and i dont know if it really makes sense for European Union to try to explain to putin that they have no geopolitical interests even if they dont have any way putin already is has that and other off and Russian Politicians so they need this this image of they might be expecting that actually from the coordination come it tame maybe they quote stress that once again that theyre really not i think it was well its problematic that they are talking on the. Need to could also have said ok were actually interested in the interest of all our neighbors is important i think this is the message that putin is still hoping to hear but is this a wonder is this at this so does this chain of events now this is an opportunity for that putin or a threat. I dont see that as a threat for him its not over exist cyrus reaction of disgust of gold street protests a street koehler for evolution because there are so exciting the reactions and theyre making distractions perfect for years because the orange revolution in ukraine 2004 was a huge surprise for at russian government state authorities