Donald trump straight boys taking a bite out of chinese export books just how long will this trade war go on not much longer says one expert says the soybean market will fix it. As this is d w a business welcome to germanys seems to be heading towards a recession the countrys mechanical engineers car makers component suppliers that all are in a Crisis Companies have seen profits slump and are considering job cuts or switching to short time work or just this weeks headlines from the German Economy so far automotive supplier continentals net profits slumped 41 percent in the 2nd quarter competitors scheffler and bosch lowered earnings expectations some firms even slipped into the red Steel Companies are struggling with falling demand and corp is expected to report a slump in earnings later this week exporters are feeling the squeeze from growing trade tensions between the u. S. And china and breaks it has prompted many firms to hold on fire on planned investments. Now over the past few months clouds have been gathering over the German Economy it appears the country is really heading towards an actual recession in june this year industrial output was down 1. 5 percent compared to may that was a far bigger drop than analysts had been forecasting compared to june of last year it was an even greater 45. 2 percent the biggest decline since the financial crisis broke a decade ago factory orders are up again as we reported tuesday the outlook for the German Economy appears to be far from rosy industrial output is expected to drop further and then 3 months something which would cause a dent in. Quarterly growth figures now are really heading towards a recession this is something i would like to discuss with for a try hes the chief economist of the german chambre gems of commerce for that welcome to the studio simple question are we really headed for a recession nobody knows whether it will be a recession or not but thats not my my major question the order is the major question major question is how to be more independent from that what is happening and what could be a good reaction and when it comes to monetary policy. We have already exploited all the instruments we have to turn to germany and to do our homework and we have to keep together in europe to be a big partner when it comes to trade policy in open market and this is the side issue where is it is it a homemade problem or is it is it other external factors more important im sure that both are in play but whats more important i know its there are external factors and. We did our homework a long time ago and really yeah i mean a gender 2010 and. All that reform measures which also when it comes to tax policy we are waiting now for more than 10 years desperately for a tax reform for the for the business sector but now the clouds are coming from outside and its itself a human being inflicted crisis what is happening but its not done by europeans its not done but german policymakers its done between china and the usa what can german policymakers do i mean isnt it time i mean people are saying germany has to borrow more germany shouldnt be so fixated on balance the books and start spending. No its an export success its not its not for granted thats what we are experiencing right now so therefore it is good to be open minded that open markets you have to do something for it and long time ago we did almost nothing in in europe having in mind what has happened with the an ambitious Free Trade Agreement with the United States called teated and that moment it failed fortunately. There is another redirected europe has redirected its vision and we have now concluded f t as with japan and with latin american countries meccas thats good we have to stick on that we have to continue and we have to reflect interim a need that we have to be competitive in germany as well and once again we need for instance a reform for Companies Taxation and we need to. Have to the awareness that open markets on it for granted and we have to present our goods and products worldwide to compatible price very very briefly please do we need to be afraid. And no we dont need to be afraid to domestic economy is running quite good that means we have the big time in order that the decreasing impulse is coming from abroad and the bad signals from abroad are really affecting german labor market focus while thank you very much like im. And now to some of the other Global Business stories making headlines today italy has threatened to ban cruise ships from entering venice for years and now theyve done it resident groups have been complaining that their 1500000 tourists arriving on cruises each year cause congestion produce lots of rubbish and spent a little following a collision in june when the big liners struck a small boat the Italian Government says it will now reroute ships away from the historic city. Some so has unveiled its new galaxy note smartphone and hopes it will help the club back some of the i phones market share the companys squeezing more battery life into its latest devised by scrapping the headphone jack something competitors for doing other things as include advanced Video Editing tools and old made augmented reality occasions. German 10 year bond yields have hit a record low. On heels across the board are in negative territory as investors seek safe havens off for a lot of large rate cuts from new zealand and weak german data added to fears of a global recession. The escalating us china trade war continues to take its toll on beijings balance books with imports falling 5. 6 percent in july compared with the same period last year trade with the u. S. Fell sharply with chinese purchases from the u. S. Plunging 19 percent exports will also down 6. 5 percent despite that fall overall expose rose 3. 3 percent year on year beating expectations next month additional u. S. Tariffs on 300. 00 u. S. Dollars worth of chinese goods are set to come into effect. So how much longer is this trade or going to last well one man says there will be Movement Towards a deal rather sooner than later alan valdes is the chief trade or silverback capital of the New York Stock Exchange and he says its all about soybeans explained its a financial correspondent again scores in new york. Where they only seems to be one topic for the past month i would say trade between china and the u. S. So how concerned are you overall you know youre 100 percent right and thats been moving the market whether its tweets from china tweets from our president the white house its been moving this market at superspeed and you know at 1st when we 1st got involved in this trade war i thought i lot of people thought ok be over a month maybe 3 months most now were going on over a year it is scary concerning but its amazing it really hasnt affected the u. S. Economy which has been so strong i mean inflation stays consistently low i thought it come up a little it hasnt Consumer Spending still robust unemployment still strong i mean overall the economy still acting very well do you believe that a deal between the 2 biggest economies on the planet is still possible. And hard hard but yeah i do think its possible and i think if we sort this week the chinese. Basically said theyre not going to get any more Agricultural Products but were the only one that really can supply mass supplies of soybeans argentina cant but not on the on the level that we can so it takes 52 days from the farmland and where they store soybeans to get to beijing by ship if they keep that up theyre going to go into winter without any soybeans and thats a staple for them so i think you may see movement in this trade war sooner rather than later do you have a certain sympathy for the overall harsh course for u. S. President donald trump when it comes to trade with china well you know at 1st you think ok hes taking a really hard stance and the chinese have taken advantage of the u. S. Economy and the u. S. Taxpayer for years we think its the right thing but on it i personally believe he could be a little more flexible and get things done and get things moving at least i think his tweets harm tour so i really do i wish he wouldnt be so bombastic out there with some of the things he says but thats the way this man is you also do quite some business was china so what do you hear from over there from your partners yeah i mean i work actually for a company have a china and hong kong and they feel that chinas taking a hard policy and they should break because theyre seeing ramifications in their economy more than we are i mean its definitely slowing down its more unemployment and were seeing unrest theyre not reporting it because the communist country but we are seeing more unrest going on in china were seeing in hong kong a high level but its a start to get out of hand there so thats another reason i do think well see some kind of movement one way or another i dont think everyone will get what they want but theyll have enough so both sides of say ok we won just to save face maybe briefly do you believe that the u. S. Economy is Strong Enough to actually handle all those negative effects of the trade tensions not for long i mean we are stronger of now but i think coming into the next earnings season. You will see it hit earnings remember we just came off in our season where things were good i mean 75 percent of all companies that reported beat a profit line so things are still good what earnings and thats the bottom line but i do think us the thing slowed down going into the Holiday Season this is the taking care thank you so much for your time thanks for having me really. Alan ball is that into all correspondence calls it in new york and thats it from me on the business see here in berlin as always for more Business News and background story. Business our web site thanks for watching right next. Global markets. Today dont miss our highlights. Program. Dot com highlights. Carefully. Simply. To dig and. Discover the i. Subscribe to documentary on you tube. Well be in western ukraine at a very special concert remembering the famous jewish colt also coming up. A top fashion photographer who says. Doesnt interest. Of australia. And has the relationship between the germans on america doing nowadays well find out. If. The ukrainian conductor. Is definitely want to watch in the Classical Music scene shes receiving accolades from musicians and critics alike and this in a profession that is still predominantly male apart from being in great demand around the world she started a festival in western ukraine and this year is opened with a special concert to remember the Jewish Population who were decimated in the 2nd world war. The cardiff symphony by Leonard Bernstein based on the jewish prayer of mourning. This year the live eve mozart festival opened in the town of brody population 24000. On stage 200 artists from