When we come to twenty twenty that jurys going to need your help. Also coming up tonight if you thought twenty seventeen was a turbulent time just wait for twenty eight teen tonight ill discuss the biggest risks to the world as we know it with the euro asia groups ian bremmer. Twenty is by far the most dangerous geopolitical risk environment that we have experienced since we started the company some twenty years. We begin the day with scorched earth and schizophrenia im talking about the relationship between u. S. President dollar trump and his former closest adviser steve benen just a year ago the two were considered the disruptive do go taking over washington with a promise to rid the nation of its political establishment and now the two men are on the outs and are suddenly politics most prominent brogan bromance in a new Controversial Book by journalist Michael Wolff bannon is quoted using the words trust treasonous and unpatriotic implying drums inner circle colluded with russia he also reportedly writes that bannon considered evolving khatron quote dumb as a brick or drums reaction expected and very brutal the official line now abandon was never influential in the oval office or important and when he was fired as advisor last year he not only lost his job he quote also lost his mind and yet in the last twenty four hours bannon has said trump is a great man some may think if its not crazy it certainly sounds that way. With friends like these who needs enemies it may feel like ages ago but it hasnt been that long since President Donald Trump and his former chief strategist steve benen were thick as thieves. Toward the end of the two thousand and sixteen president ial campaign bannon left his post as executive chairman of the right wing web site Breitbart News to join the Trump Campaign he was the embodiment of all the issues that energized the trump base nationalism and time aggression and economic deregulation despite accusations of racism and xenophobia benon helped build the wave of populism that trumpet unleashed trump became president and bannon became a kingmaker. Bannon took on the role as chief strategist and senior counselor to the president he was seen as a primary architect of trumps nationalist agenda the president was not shy about celebrating their closeness steve is very committed hes a friend of mine and hes very committed to getting things passed well have a very Good Relationship as you know with steve benen steves been a friend of mine for a long time i like steve a lot man and also helped push both the president s populism and his attacks on news organizations their corporatist globalist media that are adamantly opposed adamantly opposed. To an economic nationalist agenda like donald trump. But after a series of staff shake ups and public embarrassment trump brought an instant in the white house to an end after a mere seven months now following the publication of an incendiary book bannan trump have suddenly become sworn enemies trading barbs over the media given how fervently readers of breitbart have supported trump the cracks in this relationship could spell trouble. And a short while ago trump spoke about ben and that new book i did i didnt get a t. V. And it betrayed you mr president any wish you had steve and i dont really know me a great medalist obviously changes to pretty quick thank you all very much. They cry dont talk. I dont talk thats just a disturbing thank you. Are lets try to make some sense out of this or corresponding cost of a nominee is on the story for us tonight in washington good evening to you karsten so beyond this being an obvious broken little boy remains why does this public falling out between trump inband and why does it matter. It met us because even though a lot of conservatives on now trying to distance themselves from steve benen siding with the president steve benen still reprints the ideology of at least parts of Donald Trumps base so as long as benon is the head of the right wing conservative News Platform he can still do some harm with the things he knows with the followers that he still has and of course donald trump has survived the worst scandals than this one but ultimately i think this will have neither trump nor ben and this is set definitely demagoging for both of them and according to this new book donald trump was shocked and when he won even he didnt want to win thats what were being told i mean what does this mean if trump wants to maintain his base support as we move towards those november midterm elections. Well to be honest im not quite sure about this particular statement of the book because seeing donald trump to me it seems that at least part of an always wants to win out of principle but what seems possible or likely is that he didnt really expect to win and this is not only in the book but its also what weve heard from reports about the final phase of his campaign up to the day of the election he didnt really seem to think that he could do it well basically most people didnt think that was possible and still it happens the problem for donald trump with all this is that for the for the past year he has been playing to his base most of the time he hasnt tried to woo democrats or independents or moderates so in all opinion polls his Approval Ratings are pretty low and historic low compared to other president s after a year in office and so this could mean trouble for him in the midterm elections in november because if the democrats win one or both chambers of congress his presidency might be effectively over and there is speculation that there could be a bloodbath in november for republicans in those elections i mean how realistic is that it does point well there is no guarantee for that obviously its still eleven months to go and eleven months is an eternity in politics especially in the age of trump where theres a new sensation every day or every hour and so we dont know how it goes but if this trend continues that his Approval Ratings are so low the Democratic Base energized moderates independents staying away from trump then yes that could happen you might say this is Wishful Thinking by the democrats but actually a number of conservative strategists and analysts also think that this could be a democratic tsunami really. Our correspondent carson phenomenal the story for us tonight in washington karsten thank you. Well still to come on the day is star power in celebrity enough to topple a russian president the Television Host zinnias old chalky is running for russian president against Vladimir Putin and against all the odds you may be asking why bother ill put that question to her Campaign Adviser thats coming up in about ten mins. Trumps america and putins russia are just two of the many volatile variables that we will have to deal with in twenty teams the new year does not promise to run more smoothly or more peacefully than last year and the reasons are epic in nature the global order is unraveling consider some of the geo political t. N. T. They are north korea now both the carrot and the stick have failed to deter pyongyang from launching missiles and Testing Nuclear bombs insults and taunts about whos got the Bigger Nuclear button have not helped either and then theres Europe Europe is busy with brags that the u. K. Will dominate the entire year how will that impact the e. U. s ability to react to global challenges let alone its own and whats china doing in all of this its rising beijing would like to win the geo political power game for now its offering a not so attractive alternative as washington disengages from its global responsibilities will the Pax Americana continue to fade away. Well we are in the think of a geo political recession and there aint no central Political Bank to rescue was that is what my next guest tonight says ian bremmer joins me tonight from new york he is the president and founder of the Eurasia Group a Global Leader in geopolitical Risk AssessmentEurasia Group is turning twenty this year and welcome back to the day and congratulations on the the big to. You and saying i wish i could say the same of me but as you can see its a little long. Because you started the company when you were five im sure you say that twenty eighteen is is the most dangerous years since you started looking at these wrist twenty years ago why. Well the us led global order is broken and thats pretty clear the americans dont find it useful being the leaders in global trade or as the global policeman on promoting Global Values and no one else wants to rebuild or patch up that old american led order which means that rogue states and nonstate actors have a lot more room to operate and the whitely hood of geopolitical conflicts a lot greater look we had a Major Economic crisis ten years ago the biggest since the global depression but if you remember january two thousand and nine everyone said we need to respond we need to fix this Global Economy the chinese were putting a lot of money into infrastructure the americans were bailing out the troika the banks the europeans were coordinating in talking about stimulus were going to geopolitical recession every big it has big in two thousand and eighteen its very clear from the headlines and the tweets every day and yet no one is saying that we need to fix it in fact the americans the one country that could do the most is saying America First baby not my problem and so clearly some of the wheels are going to start you know its coming off in this equation what about the economy and i mean stock markets are hitting record highs we just saw the dell breaking twenty five thousand the Global Economy is relatively healthy i mean the markets do not reflect this geopolitical recession. Thats right and the Global Politics didnt reflect the economic recession back in two thousand and two thousand and nine actually felt pretty good you know im not surprised by that i mean the markets react well the things they know how to react to so for example you get a tax bill in the United States reduces corporate taxation and also reduces taxes on the wealthiest in particular and that leads to the markets to go up and you know even when you talk about political dislocation so grex that referendum when you know there is a specific date and there is a vote that will go one way or the other and there is whatever percentage likelihood you want to put in that thats going to happen you think you know what you can then take some money out of sterling or take some money out of british equities but i mean if youre looking at north korea and you say wow they used to be a one percent chance of that place falling apart in war on the peninsula and now its ten percent or twenty percent how how do i deal with that i can tell you that c. E. O. s of major corporations around the world that we advise are actually putting in place plans of how to change their supply chains if it gets disrupted out of south korea or take their expats suddenly out of the country thats very different from saying people are going to stop investing in south korea because intil those markets turn sour in a precipitous way youd be leaving a lot of money on the table so i think that you know we those are the sorts of risks were talking about where that right now whether its about iran or its about terrorism or Cyber Attacks or north korea and those are risks that the markets just dont respond to what you see in your Risk Assessment that china is rising beijing one of back you. What do you mean by that back you. Well what i mean is that you know china of course has been rising for a long time its a much bigger economy than it used to be it is it has a much Stronger Leadership than it used to have under shes in pink but now they also have trump and America First and allies around the world germany certainly very clearly that dont feel like they can count on a trump lead america the way they could have historically and that provides opportunities for china and for she should think to play a much greater role particularly in the Global Economy and in Global Technology the chinese economy is the second largest in the world right now the Chinese Government is by far the most impactful in terms of their ability as a state to use their economy for political gains around the world the United States economy is bigger but its all about the private sector those arent patriotic corporations and so what you see is that shes in pink just two months ago give a speech at the end of his nineteen Party Congress and you dont see leadership america thats ok chinas going to provide leadership thats the first time in our lifetimes weve seen a major country do that the chinese have always said were too small were not developed enough were too poor and i do believe that this president xi would not have done that nearly as quickly if trump hadnt been president so if you know trumps biggest impact on the global stage to date in his first year has been providing enormous opportunities for the chinese and if you go talk to the south koreans of the australians or the indonesians or even countries in latin american Subsaharan Africa talk to the heads of state their ministers they will tell you theyre paying a lot more attention to beijing these days than theyre paying to washington and that thats a very big deal thats a dramatic change in the geo political order in that let me bring into your a bomb before we run out of time i want to ask you about. Exit in your assessment you you seem to see breaks as consuming all of europes energies this year and making it almost a non player on the global stage youre nowhere to be seen do you really think is going to be that severe well i actually dont think that there are a lot of risks that are affecting europe itself as you said at the beginning the Global Economy has turned much more positive and while thats not true for the u. K. It real wages are doing worse in the u. K. Right now than any country the o. E. C. D. For twenty eighteen the Continental Europe feels to me fairly benign even italian elections are not something were worried greatly about merkels going to be weaker but she will have a government to get them a cron actually looks quite strong for labor and other Economic Reforms but but rex it is certainly consuming in terms of talking about the future of europe on the global stage shore and i have to say that you know germanys foreign minister gave one of the perhaps the best speech that ive seen from any european statesman in the past twenty years just a couple weeks ago when he said look germany has to do a lot more because the americans count cant be counted on this is the new world order but but he recognizes what an incredible hard lift thats going to be in this environment for europe and i agree with that i think that its too hard to imagine that the europeans are going to do much to fill that vacuum ian bremmer with the Eurasia Group joining us tonight from new york its always a pleasure talking with you thanks for being on the day to night i thought that anita. Or russians go to the polls in march to elect a new president and it is not risky at all to say that Vladimir Putin will be reelected our Moscow Bureau chief yuri rashad tonight on tidings of the new year in putins russia. Twenty eighteen it will be a special year. First is his predictable victory in the president ial election then the food bowl world cup in russia. But it also involves risks especially in foreign affairs. The middle east and syria. Prominent example of russia attempt to reposition itself on the build stage just a few weeks ago putin announced russias withdrawal from syria but even if the military mission was successful achieving a political solution with partners whose individual goals are often radically different might prove to be a more difficult task the socalled Syria Peace Congress planned for the end of january in such is the best example of this Syrian Opposition groups have canceled their butt dissipation because of a cold russian aggressor committed to war crimes in syria. And here how do people in russia see putin syria policy it was a great victory for russia good the why not the war lasted too long it was time to pull out now we dont have to pay as much in taxes. Most of those who we asked to were in favor of withdrawing Russian Troops over they called of the withdrawal the most important Foreign Policy event of the past year russians are tired and say pomp and brands are well and good but it wouldnt be bad for the government to turn it down russias economic problems coast in part by western sanctions will remain largely unresolved even in twenty eighteen. Nevertheless let me put an end to will remain as the countrys most popular politician in twenty eighteen and he expects a victory in march why because the kremlin promises stability and muzzles anyone who questions is their promises the only