do you put out a scenario we have tordoes, and stuff happens, and then there is next winter. we had a terrible winter here in the northeast this winter. can you like pinpoint which season is going to bring which horror? >> well, you certainly being based on what you are seeing in the atmosphere and water temperature ano, anomalies and s and other things you look at. they give you the key to what the pattern is going to look like. and if you know where the troughs and ridges set up across north america, you can then try to predict the extremes or the probability of getting the extremes. what you can't do is pinpoint that on may 14th there is going to be a tornado in joplin, right. >> bill: you can only do so much. just recapping. the tornado season ends in about a week. right? this terrible stuff is going to end fairly soon as it gets warmer across the country, correct? >> well, what will end up happening is the jet stream will