you know it's more complex than that. as fadel said, it does start with supply and demand but it goes a lot farther. tell me your take. >> exactly. i think he's got it right. supply and demand will always be the base for oil prices. we were at $85 before it began to flare up in egypt, and now as you said, we're $20 or more higher. we're up over $111. i've heard a lot of debate about what is the risk premium in oil. i've been $10 to $20. >> it's the risk you pay because there's some risk that supply might get curtailed. >> we don't know what the numbers are, but it's got to be something. we just don't know how this is all going to play out. >> finally you've got something here that's interesting. it's not something we talk about. that wall graphic shows the federal reserve as a possible reason for higher oil prices. explain to me what you mean by that. >> this is a huge debate going on right now, and the federal

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