efforts. >> hello, everyone. welcome to the center for stra tee teethic and international studies. i'm a senior fellow here and also the deputy director of the project on prosperity and development. we really appreciate everyone coming out on a thursday afternoon that's gorgeous before labor day:i think this is a really important topic. and a really important report that we're putting out right now. so i appreciate all of you taking the time out to do this. before give a brief summary of the report which i hope all or most of you were able to get, it will be posted online right after this event. i you want to say a couple of thank yous. the first is to the ford foundation that has -- we're just completing our second year of funding with the ford foundation. they've been really great partner with us. so thanks to the ford foundation for believing in in us. a slightly nontraditional partner for them on this. i want to thank my co-author who is currently in laos working for unicef. if she's watching, hello, carmen. then i want to thank our panelists who i will introduce in a minute. so this is an issue that has come on to mine and our team at csi's radar more and more over the last couple years that we've been looking at this. it's really an issue, this issue of require regular migration. it's frustrating in a lot of ways. because when you talk about people that are moving without some regular status, so often you're talking at least in the united states about illegal immigrants. and the report, you know, we shouldn't say that illegal immigrants don't exist. they do. but they're a small subset of the overall stock of migrants globally that doesn't have status and isn't able to move through regular orderly and safe means. i think there is a really important conversation to be had around what to do for those people, what to do with those people. i see this report as the beginning of a conversation. we need to have more conversations tl conversations like this in policy circles and more discussions and more roundtable that's are talking about this real phenomenon of people on the move and desperate people moving at a desperate circumstances most of the time and what do we do about that? the shadows con instruct is one we thought of here because illegal migrants live in and travel through the shadows, but the idea of irregular migration is one that has been caught in the shadows of broader forced migration, forced displacement and migration conversations globally. you know, those conversations typically revolve around people with internationally recognized status. these are legal immigrants, refugees, asylum seekers and i think those are really important architecture that's we have for those people. we need to maintain those. we need to strengthen those. irregular migration is an underappreciated phenomenon hence the existence of this report and hence why you're here today. we estimate that there are over 100 million irrelevant migrants, slightly more than our friends at iom. we have taken our own slightly broader definition of irregular migration. the reality is we don't know. that could be an overblown estimate. that could be a conservative estimate. a lot more work needs to be done on this. and we hope that we can do it. here's where i say something controversial. people in d.c. don't really -- and the united states and europe and elsewhere don't really like to talk about migration right now. we are not in the gotcha game. we want to present good credible bipartisan solutions to the challenging global issues of our time. i think the u.s. needs too take a leadership role. much that's my controversial opinion. i think even in today's political environment, ignoring the root causes of why people are moving irregularly and only focusing on people arriving at the border and the size of the wall and other things is a mistake. i think that mistake has long term ramifications. we, carmen and i and our program here, argues that u.s. leaders -- [ no audio ] >> hello? that was for all you folks on c-span2 that broke from the pete rally to join us here. i think that u.s. leadership is both critical and feasible. realistically not on everything. right? this is where my controversial opinion maybe gets tempered with a bit of reality. but i actually think ignoring this issue is not an option. so thank you again to all of you for being here and i'd like to invite brian and cindy and key to the stage for what i know will be a very interesting conversation. >> everybody can hear us? great. we have foiled their plans. you probably came to get a free cop copy of the report. hopefully you got one. i hope you also came to hear from three people who i think are really important in this space. they are addressing this and other issues from a whole post of different perspectives. and so i think that it's not just about the report and it's not just about listening to people like me here at csic, one of the benefits and privileges of working here is i get to e-mail people like brian and cindy and key and say we're doing this thing, would you be a part of it? thankfully they say yes. brian, i'm going to start with you. you are the head of the community stabilization unit at the u.n. migration agency. also known as iom. you've been with iom since the year 2000. and you have worked in the balkans, afghanistan, indonesia, nepal, iraq, pakistan and countless other places. you have -- you're a published author yourself on climate change and displacement. you have written a handbook on communitying with disaster affected communities and relevant for a later part of this conversation, i think, you've also written about libya and labor migrants suffering in libya from -- caught in the crisis. so, brian, if if you could -- if i could just ask you a broad question first about, you know, we talk about shadows in this report. where irregular migrants find themselves. you work with stabilization and in some of the places where these schacht yoez exist. can you talk to us a little bit about how think about these issues? >> sure. i must -- i must begin by just thanking you for the opportunity to be such an esteemed panel. it's great. the report is helpful. and the commitment that you've had for a few years now looking at this issue is really important. so thank you. you know, i look at the issue probably mostly through the eyes of the people that i've met, the faces of the people. and the conversations that i've been fortunate enough to have over time. you know, a couple anecdotes. i remember being in neitheaster niger in a historical transit point for migration corridors heading north. and i met this -- i think 17-year-old guy from the area. and he had just come back after a failed trip to europe. and he told me about the consistent, horrific events that had occurred until then he was imprisoned in libya and he told me me with a smile on his face and his innocent eyes about, actually, it brought me back to a philosophy class where we talked about the best day of his imprisonment in libya is when he was sold from a north african prison owner to a subsaharan owner. he thought he would be deemed valuable enough to live. just last week there juan article in reuters about 15 migrants that were trying to cross the med. 14 of the 15 died. the one gentleman from ethiopia that survived is talking about the boats and ships that were passing and he saw their faces. they moved on. it's horrible. so what does it mean to me? i mean when you get too attached to the horrific stories that we face, it can affect you. and so we have to take a step back and look at some statistics and numbers. because you have to wrap yourself in that for the missing migrants project. it's 1,750 that have died so far this year. that's down from three years ago where it was over 5,000. and at least now there's blailt more of an understanding of data. if you go back to libya, i remember when kadavy was killed and iom, my organization was being asked very reasonable question. how many migrants are in libya? check out the press releases. you have to go back and look at it. 75,000? 150? 250? just didn't know what the answer was. now 670,000, 80% male. about 10% are minors. and it also made me rethink vulnerability. and when you apply that to migrants, because when you think traditional, i've done a lot of humanitarian response, you think traditionally with vulnerability an unaccompanied female is fairly high up on the list in the midst of a crisis. it is the 20 something group of guys that are migrants and they were perceived to be party to the conflict. they possibly could have been recruited because with kadavy's greater pan africa plan, there was a lot of migration from subsaharan africa. they were all being targeted. whereas the unaccompanied females who primarily were working at residences, were fairly safe. what does that mean in real terms? it means what kind of commodities we needed to have on the other side of the boarder when peop border and we were aping a lot of women coming through. we said we thought this was happening. and these implications, and that was 2011. just 2011 was kind of a fairly big year when you look at dealing with migrants and the issues that they were facing. we also had, remember, in thailand there were the big floods that came in to bangkok and further up in the north. and there were all these mae yar nationals. i think there were about a million. all of them didn't speak the language. they were isolated. they had to get assistance. i remember i was there at the time. and talking with the head of the thai red cross who was in a really difficult political spot. and i really appreciateded his commitment to helping migrants. but if you only have so many resources, you're also not helping someone else. you're not helping the thai nationals that donated to the thai red cross. so it really tested the concept of impartial alt and needs based assistance. luckily, just trying to put a little spo spin on that, you move forward and then 2014 came the migrants in countries and crisis which did less developed countries and more developed. then you had 2015, the federation of red cross came forward with a campaign on migrants' rights. collectively, i think it's part of the space we're heading now, we're starting to institutionalize some of the needs of migrants and how to best address it. >> i hope. so one of the thiings that i the should talk about here is the global compact and thu is moving forward. brian, if you'll allow me, we'll go to the other panelists. i would love to touch on the compacts and what you're seeing coming forward and how that's going to be operationalized. the but before we do that, cindy, thank you for being here. i was looking back on your bio and reminded that you're actually dr. cindy wang. so dr. wang, thank you for being here. you are a senior policy fellow. the but the incoming vice president of tra steejic outreach at refugees international. and i really can't wait to hear you talk a little bit about what you're going to be doing because i think it's very interesting and relevant. you were director of policy at the state department's cso, bureau of conflict and stabilization operations. you were a senior adviser in the chief of staff in the state department and you've done other incredible things throughout your career. so thank you again for being here. you know, you've tackled these issues both in the migration, forced displacement, even some of the regular migration stuff. from research and policy angles both from within and outside of government. so can you just talk a little bit about your reactions to maybe what brian said or just this issue set in general? >> great. thank you. it's a that you pose there around, you know, kind of what is the state of this post-world war ii order, the 1951 convention on refugees, the 1957 protocol. and the caveat here is most of my research and work is focus ond refugees. i come at it through that angle. but i completely agree that it's time to take a step back. yes, there are real refugee protection concerns in the world. thats why i'm so proud to have joined refugees international. i think we need those independent voices out there. but we also have to grapple with the fact that the world order is changing. we can either approach it from a position of fear and say no we have to clamp down and just protect what's there and protect the institutions like unhcr which is providing invaluable services for some of the most vulnerable people in the world. so we can clamp down or we can, you know, take a fresh look and say this is going to be a really challenging time they really challenge us to take an approach that we know will be longer term to rebuild a system and i'm very interested in your thoughts on the gcm and gcr. i think although they're not perfect, they won't be perfectly implemented. they are the next step in trying to outline the future of the architecture that we need. i was really moved by what you said about the experience in libya around, you know, who are the most vulnerable? of course it's evolved, it is really kind of around who were the masses of people who were most vulnerable at the time? but we have to question that. and so just from the research that i've been doing just a few, so not just myself, sorry, also cgd and michael clemens and this is mentioned in your report around thinking about the central americans who are fleeing and that is at the top of the political discourse. but, you know, in some of the rigorous impeerical work they've done, finding that, you know, there is no way to disentangle people who are fleeing violence, from people who are also looking from -- for economic opportunity. it's a mix. and using statistical methods, can you say there is this relationship between people increases in homicide and in particular municipalities and the presence of long term unemployment and underemployment. and so it really challenges us to think about, you know, how we can't separate. if someone answers on a survey, you know, i came for economic opportunities, well, it could be that. and the school they sent their child to is closed because of gang violence and the neighborhood is targeted and maybe that doesn't respond to a definition of refugee status that exists, but they're really fleeing difficult circumstances. and so i think there is really an opportunity to bring together different methods to create a better understanding of vulnerability and displacement today. so one other thing raily appreciated about your report is that, you know, it does talk about a spectrum as i've discussed. it really challenge md he to think about looking at refugees where some governments like turkey have provided permission for people to be in turkey but only in specific places. and so in the news recently the fact that there was the, you know, reports of the deportation of syrian who's were not in the governments that they were registered in. so again, how do you, you know, there is a whole spectrum of situations. and so even for refugees and those who have refugee status or in refugee like situations, you know, even their status can be irregular in some ways. so that is another example that was in the news recently that came to mind. and so just to give a teaser on the work that i'll be doing at refugees international, it's really around how to better -- take that fresh look and better understand. also about how the public, you know that, is too general of a term, but how does the public think about migration and my focus will be forced displacement and refugees in particular. but in that example, you know, someone whose neighbor has been killed, mother threatened, i do believe and some polls show this, that the average person or many people we can say look at that and say, you know that, person deserves protection. you know, and what that -- we should -- we need to help that person. so what that looks like. we have to do a lot of work to build con ssensus. and they're around some of the understandings. we do need public support. that is leadership at the highest levels but also engaging in public dialogue and public education about vulnerability and protection and what that means from a very basic human level. and also what that means at the level hf systems and institution. and i will -- i almost always say this in panels even though there have been very challenging times on refugee and asylum issues recently, i am by disposition an optimist. i do have to believe this set of challenges will effect the united states and is affecting so many other countries that there is a way forward. i'll just end with one last country that i've been looking at that is, i think, providing a lot of leadership which is cl colombia. taking a very positive approach in the research i've done talks about, you know, given the right to work so not only permission around residency or refugee a rs that refugees are actually given the right to work and allowed to contribute and i think there are governments that keeping the doors relatively open and saying that optimism, and that potential opportunity in hosting refugees or even those without status as well. >> you brought up about a zillion really important points there. just to i wanted to highlight i had the opportunity last week to help lead a course here at sea i see as i asked for a bunch of students and it shows venezuela this venezuelans as a touch issue as a topic and together with my colleague we were the topical experts on this and i learned a lot but why we do this verbal dance every time we talk about venezuelans we talk about venezuelan money migrants and refugees and venezuelan people living in refugee like situations there's. the stance that happens it was really important point that we figured out through the course of that week which was part of the reason is because countries like columbia are a footing a version of temporary protection and status so if we go full-on into the refugee asylum bush that may actually have overall negative consequences over the grand scheme of things so unintended consequences of good intentions all of that to say is that it's a very complicated issue and there's no easy answer to this. if >> i could follow up i do think it is time when those are shifting relatively quickly but what kind of factor this on the ground and with the political narrative and approaches his potential even more importance of that we think by these examples where it's not, there could be unintended consequences the both practically and politically speaking of invoking stat status that looking around at their seeds where this could grower columbia could ugly a role model for other countries in the region also had to rebuild a system from the ball bottom up in like something you have with the students last week they >> were really phenomenal underground they were not topical experts on this but were asking all the right questions. i'm hopeful about the future of journalism. the other point i wanted to make was the point about central america. we have a case study on mexico on the idea is not luck just to talk about mexicans coming to the united states but the case that he, 1995 -- and it's not what's going on right now. there are some mexicans that are coming north but more even mexico even the policies that psyche in our psyche towards mexico and our policy towards mexico is focused on mexicans coming north, the reality is than mexico is a receiver of people right. now they are having to deal with the influx of central americans, patients and even venezuelans and beyond. and by the way mexicans that are leaving to the united states going back to mexico. their system is not ready set up for that we were talking about this it is part of this research we went to the guatemala border the cover of this is this is one migrant shelter in mexico we are talking to people about this idea of what you and michael have done excellent research on if you asked someone we will say, yes i came from a battle. life but if you peel back that onion just one layer it because of as the reasons you said. because because of a woman walking at night in the port neighborhood and there's not a light in that neighborhood i am at risk of sexual violence or maybe i don't have enough money to have a lock on my door and so we are at risk of and robbery at any moment. maybe that's not top of mind for the that person's mind and so the question like i said if you peel back the onion a little more and more of these people and then some more credible researchers then i will back up this >> you ky luu are the the -- you maintain an affiliation with george washington university thank you and you are a man of many hats we are very happy to have you here you were relevant for this conversation, you are also the head of the office of foreign disaster assistance in the bush administration i do usa id you've come these issues from a whole host of different perspectives, academic practitioner government official. so same question to, you how do you think about these issues >> i will congratulate you and see i as soon as i asked a report and really to get the migration issue regular regular at the front at thing this through the urgency with which we have to come up with a better way to deal with migration process and we may be dealing with 40 50 years with and i'm tired country and what we do with that entire population. in louisiana where i live we are losing land by the day if you are outside of a levee system that are underwater what we do with his population it is relevant it's relevant here to the way we approach it, how i approach it. we need to have evident based approach dealing with migration issue a project that at george washington that we worked on as we develop and stood up what we call the resilient african network which is a collaboration of 18 sub-saharan africa into included stanford, and now george washington and the network looked at how do we measure resilience. resilience the conflict, resilience to food and insecurity and violence how do we measure that as evidence to actually inform and of innovative solutions for results. in somalia, interesting studying which was to look at how to paul populations become more resilient to conflict and displacement chronic displacement. we did a study in six communities in somalia, we had identified dimensions of resilience we found to be protective factors. they had high value in terms of mitigating the impact of chronic displacement. those three are very similar to what's been identified in the report governance, wealth and access to basic services so in host communities that had policies that promoted protection and basic human rights. that afforded the displaced population opportunities for livelihood, that had afforded them access to basic services, we found higher scores of resilience. i will take that further in terms of applying in my current role with the international medical corps and if you could put that picture on the slide, here which is that in june, i had the opportunity to travel out to libya and eee to look at our programs for stan. brian has already mentioned here in terms of when we think through irregular migration libya comes to mind were you see the pictures a story count libyan i was a country of transit. there are pictures here of rescues that take place. international medical corps is opening in nine detention centers, providing health care also see rescues. this is what irregular migrants and migrants regular migrants are faced. with you will see in the middle picture, the size of that room is probably the size of this room. at that time during my visit there were over 1000 young men that were housed in this facility. this facility in this picture to the right at one bathroom. as we spoke to the young men within this this tension center, their daily ritual is to be able to wait in line to use the facility. that is the reality they and, they out. they are sleeping next to each other. they are waiting for something to happen. these are individuals who had paid some smugglers to be able to take them to libya, hoping to be able to transit out. when they arrive at the border, they are picked up by local militias who then put in into detention center where they will go back to their families and try to exploit and get additional money. they are detained here for upwards of 69 months. in this population, there are irregular migrants but there are possible we would consider to be refugees. who are waiting for interviews, they are looking to be able to be resettled perhaps or find a solution. we also see groups of young children, youth that are housed in these detention facilities among the men. and you can think through here in terms of the protection related issues, this is the reality here. again, i just wanted to put the picture out there but bring it back in terms of what is it that we can do perhaps to mitigate the negative impact when things happen when these protection issues come up going back to governance, wealth access to basic services because libya was not always a transit entry. it was a point of destination. in the fifties and sixties, with the oil economic boom there, this was a large poll factor for many within sub-saharan africa. at the height of the pro immigration policy, open borders, where sub-saharan africans did not need a visa in order to come to libya. i believe there was something like two and a half million migrants in libya compared to a total population of 6 million. so migrants be played a huge role with regard to the economic backbone of society within libya. so when you see breakdown in terms of the governance structure on it's not affording basic human rights, and when you are not allowed access to basic services and you don't have a means in terms of generating livelihood, you move quickly from being able to have positive pull factors that actually benefit both hosts community and migrants themselves, just to the situation where we see today in libya for many of these individuals, there's not a lot of hope. it >> strikes me that as you are talking if we just replace the word libya with man was venezuela, to be a destination for workers again because of an oil boom. they were very welcoming to columbians who were escaping the narco wars in the nineties. now look where they are. i'm glad you brought governance in the same conversation. i am reading why nations failed right now. i am really hot and institutions and governance. thanks for that. you also mentioned bangladesh. i know you've been the bangladesh recently thinking about it i do want to come back to you on bangladesh on that point but maybe before we do that, brian, tell us a little bit about where we are with a. global compact on migration mainly can ask you juicy art that we want to comment on it is fine but where are we going at >> i think it. does i >> totally agree. with you i >> for softball that. you >> there's nothing quite like him multilateral not biting good consulting process to really exceed the crowd (laughs) >> thank you for that erol. it will be this december the d.c. and will have its first birthday and one thing that came out of the g cnn which was not born in the vacuum, it was born a processes that have occurred earlier affirmations is that a network migration network, was created. whenever you have a network, of course you have an executive committee. then you have a secretary, that's a role that i owe am has and there's an incumbent, in i think unicef is bringing some went on with the secretary and the membership of the network at saw available online for those who are interested very recently the network did with a work plan and the work plan looking at some of its core activities there's a start-up fund for safe, orderly and regular migration. there is a goal to capitalize that up to 25 million dollars. i think 1 million is in right now. on that, of course with any funds, this the the exciting multilateral world of un affairs. >> this is why people hate multilateral >> and. getting i think again you when women, and i find skipping in un brothers sisterhood organization >> you'll get an angry email. >> i will. and it also has donor countries in germany's participating in that and then also countries representing sending, receiving and transit countries. although now there's so many countries it's our -- how they're gonna sort this out they're gonna have to work through it the. just got constituted in me. >> this is the. fund >> the fungus constituted in may and then they're pulling everyone together in october them to figure out exactly what the modalities would be so there's one more pretty important structure. i will just give some key dates but international migration would do for. the the global compact at a state level it was formed. they will be meeting every four years, the first time maybe 2020 to. bangladesh and spain are leading that process. for some key dates this december 11th, the one year anniversary you will have the annual annual meeting of the network, asperger juicy and, there's an obligation to provide an evaluation of how it's performing. so one year that's done by the secretary, by us and partners and then subsequent years it's done by the secretary general we are really pleased that it has that level of visibility >> un secretary. general >> yes. that's baked and i >> think that significant. and that he is himself playing a role and the operational -- of did you see him what >> we will be looking at that he will be engaged every couple of years in the review. of an annual review process which is already baked into that. the goal is how do you operational eyes, make it relevant on the country at the regional level. >> you do that with a fund. as of today, there's approximately 50 you when country teams that have been looking at the juicy am and figuring out the various 23 parts the juicy and will be relevant this aligned himself i don't know what percentage >> let me tell you i think this is important that look at -- despite the fact that the u.s. decided to pull out of the negotiations in the process and december 2017, i have wanted the u.s. comes back. but even without that the reason i'm excited about the gm is that it was a member state driven process you said that he said that member states continue to be involved. you are not serving as to coming all the solutions and people to sign off. member states are doing the hard work of negotiating with one another on language, on things that are not easy to talk about. it's gonna be harder, the process is going to be harder but i would argue that the process being harder will lead to the outcome being more durable and more long-lasting. that's at least my version of optimism i also happened to be a glass half full tide. feeling the next that, it's really continuing on this member state driven. there needs to be a secretary, you guys need to be playing a role here but the fact is that the secretary general himself and member states also our involve is pretty significant. >> i would agree. one of the challenges that everyone is looking at is how to benefit from the years of work very regional -- processes. there's the bali process, focused on trafficking, also finding minimum between labor receiving read labor sunday, list could go. on how to connect those bodies and make sure that we are tapping into all of that, what's positive about it is that behind each of those and it is, whether it's the gcm or different regional bodies you have member states. you have countries that have positions, we can like and we can not like them that's personal. but they have their positions and the engage based on their interest. and those that really have seen value, they just keep on moving along. >> please add to that. >> i will jump in the value of the and gcm connecting into the theme of your report will you report on a regular migration. i think there's a lot of interest and there is evidence to show increasing legal, safe, orderly regular pathways can help diminish the need for people to use irregular pathways. just mentioned i know (inaudible) immediately further developed so it will depend on context in some cases but just to highlight the work of my colleague michael claimants who mentioned the mexico case. he did a study, historical study that showed providing temporary permits for workers to come from mexico to the united states, in that program really led to an increase in irregular migration because we talked about a push and pull factor, many of those exist whether or not there is a legal channel. whether it's the u.s. the is bringing in temporary seasonal workers -- we provide more legal channels it's not only in terms of labor migration i'm or temporary or permanent (noise) (inaudible) legal protection and people should have the status and let that process happen in a timely manner. i think it really shows how how member states are and should be interested both because of the economic and other benefits but also because there is a relationship to irregular (inaudible) >> several months ago a year ago you had euro to provide provocative -- about a week bangladesh compact unforced migration talk to us a little bit you were there recently talk a little bit about how what you learned out of bangladesh >> we did put out the proposal for the bangladesh compact we were inspired in our -- (inaudible) other country level and even before that when we were -- we pull together resources to support a country to achieve greater inclusive growth. and there's a set of policy reforms not about conditionality we will give you that if you do this, but one of the positive reforms that are necessary to then we achieved the outcome that we want. different context it's not about displacement but yes, there were examples like the jordan compaq with there was a big commitment of a concessional finance, some private investment that created a package where it created conditions for jordan to really make a case of its own people. we are hosting a large number of syrian refugees and in order to give them to give them access to employment opportunities we need to grow the pie. that's really understandable to believe. in the international community stepped up. investment, commitments, that enabled productive dialog and created access to work permits for syrians it's like a different -- continual improvement not let it's been perfect. in the case of bangladesh it's not a package that could be put together to really change the dialog and even though -- we have not achieved success i think it's still very tough conversation however i think i saw in my recent trip there i think i saw some progress while there haven't been large policy shift, you are seeing greater cash we work opportunities for refugees, you are seeing some planning and what it will look and planning -- that does trying to grow the pie for everyone. i do think this policy changes, they are really important and we've done a report economic and fiscal effects of granting refugees labor market access and there really tricky political dimensions but the more we can tell the positive narrative about growing the pie, the contributions that refugees could make if they had greater access to the labor market, it's also a very important part of the story about displacement, refugees or displaced on average for ten years and those who are displaced for five or more years are displaced for more like 15 to 20 years. what is as more a more sustainable approach. >> the point about growing the pie for everyone else against this idea that rural communities are really critical here like brian mentioned before. i want to turn to you to discuss what we can do about this you showed that this is a really meaningful illustration to the scale of the problem in the reality but this is about people. what can we do about it? >> i think international organizations that international medical corps we put a band aid on the program on the problem they are in theory managed by the government but they really are led by pressure groups. >> militia groups? >> militia groups. the eye the depending on -- who detained? what they are fed? it's a real challenge for us there in they out to be witness to these horrific conditions. but if we speak out but access to get access to this vulnerable population -- nothing a long term solution we've seen as, you touched on the multi lateral gcm approach here. we've also seen effective measures between bilateral and regional organizations and with countries that export laborers and migrants and countries to make that take them in. colombo meetings south southeast, asian countries. as well as abu dhabi golf state. regarding the regional bilateral cooperation with countries they are exporting migrants, policies and information campaigns that allows the migrants to understand conditions within which they will be deploying to. also working with the countries that are taking in these migrants to create the types of policies that do not result in exporting laborers and providing conditions where they would meet the labor gap but also being able to take care of themselves on the families. i do think that again, this momentum needs to be built the multi lateral, regional, bilateral, and ultimately the solution is not going to it's not about how much a distance can provide migrants that if -- it means the shift to be allowed for migration to take place in a better way. >> nothing makes better sense. you guys are an implementing organization you do a lot of important work on these and other issues. same question to you. what do we do about this? probably have good for you but i think this idea of the policies and what we can do regionally and internationally and here in washington, i think it's really important. take it to whatever direction you would like what we do? >> i will take it to your report. >> that's a great place to take it. >> i like the title. because the whole idea of shadows because channels can be caused by anything building by person caused by whatever fact that the point is that there is multiple things that can create the same situation. the same horrific situation. you just have been talking quite a bit about policies. when we look at labor sending a labor receiving countries. the unintended consequences of having your visa tied to your employer. if your is that your employer and things are not going well, you don't have the mobility. you don't have an opportunity you can really use redress on a practical fashion. it may exist but -- a single entry visa versus a double entry visa. people go for work. you have a family situation at home. you have to come back, there's a funeral, there's something. you go back to work. you were a regular migrant now you are an irregular migrant. just a policy created. that your report talks about conscription. how that has such a significant impact on the creation of irregular migration because people don't want to serve. we do so often think about the natural disasters in the conflicts as drivers it of displacement and they are hugely significant. some of the policy issues really have a very similar impact. to help unpack the issues, which is why and i'm very happy that we are having this discourse today. to be able to articulate the whole complexity of the situation. you are talking about drivers, earlier on. one of the issues when we are looking at drivers is that can you really just find one? in syria, just absolutely. that's pretty clear what a driver is. in large swath of the world.. what was the tipping point, when you and your family said we are done. what exactly is that? i love the restricted to explode together. i think was el salvador when this 1% increase in the homicide rates 188% increase in outward migration, wfp report. you referred to el nino community one point time five times more likely to become irregular migrants. but it's so >> at least one person has read the report (laughs) >> what what about causality? allow me to have a far more (laughs) on that if you >> i'm just going to say that it those coalitions are interesting because (inaudible) we need more research and there are those moments in central america study that i've mentioned where circumstances enabled us to use a causal identification strategy but we have to doubled down not everything is self serving for someone, think tank to do more research. but i agree i do think it's critical because it's on the basis, correlation in case that is, all of that. here's the picture and what how consistent and you positives his response. back to the point with how you communicate with people there is a great study that came out of you see as the. the kind of like the work you do maybe he situations you talk about statistics it was the basis in common understanding. i think is so much to the stories that you have told. what would be that point for me, or anyone to say i am attic here and i want to say that, my threshold from mostly a lot of comfort it just seems (noise) (inaudible) >> to the point where it's really not a decision at all which is the point i. making if there are any questions. we have a good audience here today. i want to open it up to some questions. so i have to colleagues with microphones. all i would ask is that you stand up tell us your name and what organization you are with, if you are with one. tracked and you're intervention with a question mark if possible. one right here, a gentleman right here. and then we will take that woman in the middle. here >> hi i am from from buenos aires argentina national defence expert. i really -- those pictures. if i correctly understood you you said one bathroom for that amount of people. my question is what about health issues there? is there any kind of system that allows them to have it kind of volunteer medical team to treat them as persons? >>. good question maybe i could take two or three and then allow folks -- >> thank you for talking with us today. of concentration of international manage. have a ton of questions to ask you but i i will stick to one that's one of my mind lately. i read recently that climate change is one of the biggest drivers causing mass data from the northern triangle in central. america i was wondering if you guys have looked at this little bit in the research on what other areas are we gonna start seeing more, with climate conscious effect on migration what is the dialog internationally on how to address it how good or how to deal with that? >> thank you for asking. it was on my list of questions. yes? >> thank you i work at the organization of american state working group for venezuela migration crisis. i am very impressed listening to you and this is so enriching but at the same time i have a question because i haven't heard anything about venezuela and i would like to know why this migration crisis in venezuela, has enriched the global awareness that it deserves? i was there at the border of columbia and venezuela and it's something that i haven't seen anything like that in my life before. i would like to know why it hasn't? >> thank you. question first question was -- for >> sure. >> you guys can take any of all of these and if you skirt any i will be sure to make a follow-up. >> on the question regarding access to health care within libya. this but 800,000 migrants give or take in libya these days. the majority are not living in detention center there on the host community. there are groups that do provide public health in clinics, or in distant detention center we mentioned here our global medical team. rescues out at sea rescues. but again, i will say that a lot of focus and attention has been on the detention centers themselves. we need to focus la with more on the broader population of migrants within libya itself. again, it's a balance between shedding more of a line and focus on these migrants, because one of the issues that we are constantly grappling with is that we operate a clinic in order to provide support to migrants. when they are lining up in chewing in front of atlantic, it raises the visibility and militia group can come back and pick them up and put them in detention centers. in terms of getting access and the ability to provide health care, its ongoing challenge in terms of dealing with armed militia groups who really are in control in many of these areas. one quick comment on venezuela. my wife is from venice well and she has a question every day. why don't we do more? when we look at the numbers, whether we are giving them the status of refugee or not, they are more displaced persons going out of venezuela than even syria. this is a great great problem and it's a perplexing issue as to why it hasn't resulted in more action. >> i also ask that question. someone i collaborated with them just put out an interesting piece showing also the disparity in international funding that's been made available to displaced venezuelans. i know there are a number of reasons and i haven't done enough in-depth reflection to say whether hierarchies, but i would go back to erol's opening remarks on that the u.s. hasn't done any leadership i would not a global group that stepped up -- fantastic commitment by other agencies i have -- i've i've also cooperated will (inaudible) not all that the you see these bright spots i don't know the answer but i think it's something that we need to keep asking and really pushing that greater attention is paid. i do hope that it's not just, unfortunately, a lot of crises you see the greater attention is paid when something happens. maybe it is a big i don't help just with it to happen, but maybe when something happens -- i really hope that attention and leadership of the country's continues and the really be a positive story. i will quickly say on climate it's not my area of expertise, but i know in areas of west africa there is they are increasing trans. of course reports, i don't know if the devolving verified, but in case of syria climate change played a role. i hope that's an area where we continue to acknowledge the reality of human caused climate change and that there is a response and again greater research that bridges, goes back to our conversation, different causes, more approximate causes but there are these longer term transit we need to pay attention to as well. >> i guess to start with the presence, detention centers. i know i wish it was a matter of how -- i've been to rid of interviewed a lot of people come out of the centers and the vast majority are outside of government control. they don't have any access ... of having described you have either a work prison, or killing prison. the work prison is where you are in good enough condition that the owner of that president can sell you on a daily labor market. then there's one when you're not. it's just a situation so horrific let has been some steps, i'm an optimist as well, there are a lot of john positions on how to improve the situation and how to have access, but it's just, the situation is so much more horrible than a lack of access to basic services. as critically as important as they are, unfortunately it so much worse. for the question on climate change, one of the most confrontational meetings i ever participated and was in fiji at the un climate change compact there was a regional consultation where i've been brought as a subject matter experts on this placement. the idea that specific islands states would look at migration as an adaptations that strategy as opposed to how about compensation. talking about displacement as part of the solution. no higher ceilings. hi seawalls. they're asking for different opinions. very heated conversations. more recently, i think you are you referenced with in your report, there were some islands but in fiji so migration is one of the adaptation strategies. that's the enter that started to enter the discourse a bit more than it used to. for venezuela, my iom has been privileged to work -- at a request of the un secretary general for venezuelans outside of venezuela i agree with everything that the person with a question had. you are completely correct. it's not getting the resources that it needs. it needs significantly more. just today, the head of the platform put out a statement focusing on this particular issue. we just need to continue. but you didn't ask for the excuse why, you asked why. i don't know. maybe geography? i don't officially are. if you want to galvanize a response to libya and are looking for funding from the eu justify that it's across the mediterranean, you can't discount that. the amount of resources that go into turkey. you look at the proximity issue so is that part of it? that wouldn't surprise me but the honest answers i don't have a clue. when >> i normally don't answer questions one thing i'll use my moderators rule to an answer. i think the question is a fantastic. one having looked at this recently i don't think it's a full answer but i think a question about why it's not getting more attention is partially and appeal for us to talk about this more generally and i'm fully on board with that and we should have several -- just on. this i think it's a very important one. the first one i have it's a bit of donor fatigue and what brian said. the way that i think about it is hot iom and uhcr and if you are looking for bright spot if you look at the collaboration between these two is something to watch. both in venezuela and respond there and also in bangladesh another places i think you are doing our honorable partnerships working together. but their joint appeal this regional response framework and plan for venezuela displacement. the appeal for this year is less than 100 million dollars. to me it sounds like a lot of money hundred million dollars is a lot of money but if you are thinking about responses to global crises and 5 million by the end of the year, of of displaced venice williams the international community could sneeze and come up with that amount of they wanted. to the u.s. is actually one of the larger contributors to that. but as brian mentioned, the europeans are much more focused on sub-saharan african coming across the mediterranean, on syrians, afghans, and other issues. i get the sense and i'm not quoting anybody here, this is a little bit of my sense. i get a sense they are kind of like, united states, canada, you guys run the western hemisphere, this is western hemisphere problem. they are going to the meetings, are playing ball but they are looking at leadership on these issues from the united states. one part of the venezuelan conversation that doesn't get talked about nearly enough and i will use this platform. is the islands. the caribbean islands, when you think of codicil. there's something like 22,000 20,000 not not much but not about 60% of the population of curacao displaced venezuelans it's almost backbreaking. it and i want to go for and aren't quickly climate change, its fundamental thing to talk about here is the the next conversation we will have on this is probably how climate change is at the root of all these other but -- i don't think it's, we we listed it is a root cause but when you think about climate change, is the root cause of food and security, it's the root cause of rising sea levels, forcing people and some places to leave. i think it's really critical. the last thing i will say on climate is there's not really a good international architecture response to those that are displaced by climate. i think both the gcm ngc are, -- positive sparked but there is start but there is a long way to go. the reason i wanted 1 million people 120 million people is a conservative estimate. all the people that i've had to leave home and move regularly they will have a status. they don't fall into under protection, correct me if i'm wrong, but they don't fall it into any protection. like that i wanna take a few more questions. yes gentleman with glasses here, they will take from there and then there. i'm trying to be equal opportunity. >> i thank you very much my question is on the recommendations you had in the report on leveraging private sector. my question to the distinguished panel would be what could be done to increase the private sector at all and their responses but the with the organizations, un governance, also what can roll what role can private sector play especially in the in markets where may not be functioning --? >> yes gentleman in the middle. >> i can't believe we discussed a venezuelan columbian today without anyone pointing out itself that color itself has the largest population of internally at the -- weekend whether it dwarfs colombians in venezuela and, in any case our idpc, talk about lack of attention and i doubt that one person intent was aware that one person was but i'm not sure the panel. new the largest population of this place migrants in columbia. how does the number of idpc the world compare to irregular mine? >> excellent question thank you very much. >> thank you so much i would like to mention my common goes with a fact thing right now with war in the world we are -- more and more migrants that are escaping home because the criminal law they are here they are in a criminalized state in power or there are criminalized groups taking over. so they really have to leave or they are in conflict or war. these are irregularities, these are criminal situations criminal tower. i feel like the formal power institutions, mechanisms we are moving very slow. in the end we are creating a massive amount of population in a situation that are very vulnerable. victims for a criminal again, or criminal powers or they are passing to be the workers of a criminal economy. my comments is these fact one way or another touch or discuss or is it too far away from this question i know it's very naive the question but >> i don't think it's. live at all >> i think it's important because more and more the reality of the migrants we are talking about millions and millions of them. i feel like the machine is heat saying itself. >> it's a good question actually. on page six of the report i talk about something, how people movement, some smugglers, it's no longer a niche business. the un report the talks about, i use the term business deliberately. there's a report out this is the between 5.5 and seven billion dollars last year in recent year was made by people smuggling. the u.s. spend seven billion dollars a year, about the same amount on global humanitarian assistance. this is no longer, the shatters construct to draw attention -- the me people moving through the pathways a lot of times they're using these illegal networks that have existed for roy thank you so much i apologize to the panel for getting excited about page six there for a second. yes maybe i will go the other way this time brian cindy and ky. >> i will start with a last comment. just really echoing what you said, erol. the smuggling and trafficking networks are so highly sophisticated. they've got supply chains, worthy of a top 500 company. and it should attached to the shadow, is that displacement more and more so it outward migration i think we close our eyes and think about it, many people think about it in and that equated fashion. that's the one way movement from the global south into the global north. that's just simply not the case anymore. it was as of about, maybe three years ago the world migration report, that's when the south south mobility, south of south migration exceeded the south north. the data gets a little bit spot here. there's not so much light on the problem, hence the shadows. since then, that's a growing trend. having these regional migration patterns, much more so than crossing continents. it's an issue that exist and certainly an issue that's going to continue. for the private sector, i think we have an opportunity right now. what was, it a week or so ago it came out from the business round tables, 150 some odd ceos, that turned a that the profit is not the sole the profit is not in the only bottom line anymore. what does that mean? how does that impact migrants. think of the positive impacts it could have on managing supply chains. ethical recruitment issues. i think it's just a great space where the u.s. can really play a big role. the u.s. chamber covers forward leading then as far as what a private sector can do, itself, i would like to separate ways. pro bono, low bono, no bono. if it's philanthropy that's great. we are equal opportunity recipients of large gas, preferably cash. aside from that, it's really when the market makes sense. you are looking at intervention dealing with that business does. creating markets, creating jobs opportunities and unstable environments. let's risk associated with that, there is ways -- without risk that's a conversation i would love to continue. and columbia, it is the largest displaced population in the world. as far as the number of migrants that are facing a thing, i think that puts iom the figure at about 58 million. i tie the common in venezuela to the initial comment. something for a lot of people to understand is also the circular fashion of venezuelan migration. there's a lot of outflow, but there's also a lot of people that are going into columbia to access services and then going back to venezuela. >> sometimes on a daily basis. >> our biggest request which came out, again it came out in a statement that was just earlier today can the neighboring countries maintain what to date has been some relatively lax immigration standards that people across to it's not simply an economic issue it's not necessarily do we have the services capacity to observe it's also political issue to go full circle i would say when the head of the -- cross to make a decision to miami migrants which means he wasn't getting he wasn't getting assistance to son who were in need, some decisions had to be made and he took a lot of heat for that so we appreciate it at. so hopefully government will be more progressive as far welcoming migrants and refugees that are crossing into their countries. >> i think we have one minute left. i think it's really exciting to what is happening i would push. and say give cash if he can the private sector and if you are not in a position to give something else the leadership of the world ban he goes back to what i spoke about about growing the pie whether it's irregular migrants a refugee we gotta keep growing the pie at the back of the pie. so we don't leave anyone behind. there are ways to do that i would like think (inaudible) an initiative was launched how we could increase labor market access not just on the policy side but how we further engage the private sector so that we can generate more solutions together. ky? >> all states have the prerogative sovereign prerogative to prescribe the conditions for entry for non nationals within their country. but if you do so with evidence and data. this is really where the private sector can really help because. cindy mentioned here, we need more regular migration opportunities that labor based. the private sector can match skills between the labor gap with countries with countries that can export and train in the vigils. this is really where it can benefit the whole industry in terms of private sector to be able to, you can play train the labor place the labor is and ultimately benefits those countries that really need additional skills skill sets. and those who have a surplus of individuals there the don't necessarily have those opportunities back home. i do think again, it comes back you have a right to be able to set those conditions but let's make sure that that it's done with evidence and data and not on rhetoric, not based on and that is based on practical reality. >> my last question to the panel as cindy mentioned we are out of time but if you had to leave the audience with a tweet length take away based on this conversation or anything else that you want to bring in that's related to this, what would that be? while you are thinking about it i am putting out what mine is. which is part of the report. when you think about it too i want to thank all of you for taking the time to be with us and thanks everyone for taking the time to be with us and ask some really thoughtful questions. i'm always struck by the quality of questions are asked at csis. we haven't started with city yet. okay fine. okay ky what is your tweet length? >> i will give you a heads up so i knew you would ask us. this a put some thought into a lot of rhetoric out there about migrants, refugees, regular, irregular a drain within the host community in terms of basic services and i ran across a study done that noted 85% of the money that migrants made stays between host community. it stays with taxes the pay, rent they pay, food consumption. therefore, it is an economic boom in terms of what it means to the host community. that would be in my tweet. 85% of the money stays within the host community. >> i was wondering 280 characters >> i had to explain. it >> i didn't prepare so i will end on a philosophical note. it's precisely in these most challenging times that we must protect reject politics of fear and reach for hope lighten optimism. >> brian? >> i didn't do anything i'm a u.s. citizen, i didn't do anything to earn my citizenship or go through -- so there by the grace of god do i. >> think you very. much (applause) just

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