Good morning, everyone. Im the director of turkey studies at the middle east institute. Im happy to welcome you all to our eighth annual conference on turkey. Each year as we convene this conference, we find interest in turkish matters. 2017 was very dramatic and difficult year for turkey and neighbors. We appreciate that so many of you are making time today to join us in our discussion. Our keynote speak er is a leadig voice on turkish affairs. She will provide a first hand report on the berlin. We have elected members of the turkish and parliaments on the program as well along side a leader in u. S. Diplomacy and expert analysts. Youll hear our guests speaking on three panels. To begin well examine turkeys environment. Our Panel Includes a recent member of the turkish parliament. Scholars who have been writing and following turkey. Off our Morning Coffee break well turn our attention to turkeys economy with the help of three turkish scholars who teach at Washington Area universities and a member of the parliament. Well hear from our keynote speaker at 1 30 p. M. Well follow with the days final panel looking at turkeys foreign relations. Particularly turkeys relationship with the u. S. , European Union and russia. We will be joined by legislatures from turkey and European Union as well as u. S. Deputy secretary of state for Southern Europe and the turkish scholar in that conversation. As you can imagine were delighted with the program we have assembled and i hope youll find the discussion valuable as well. We are recording the event. If you miss any part of the conference, dont worry about it. Just go back and you can listen to it online. One final note on todays program, for the last 71 years the middle east institute has been decaded to balance and nonpartisan programming and analysis. We work very hard so you hear to ensure that our invited speakers represent all sides of debate. You as the audience can hear diverse views and make up your own minds about controversial issues. In that spirit, this year, as previous years, reach out to prominent figures affiliated with turkeys ruling just as think tankers, journalists who are close to the government and opposition parties and scholars. We are very grateful to all the the speakers who agreed to appear today. I also would like to express my gratitude to mr. James holman. Hes our board member for his generous support to this conference. His Team Provided a critical expertise and support in making this conference possible. Its my pleasure to ask michael to greet you and introduce our opening panel. Michael, the floor is yours. [ applause ] its really a pleasure to be with you this morning. Just come back from germany yesterday evening and the times are not easy in germany as well given the Coalition Talks. Turkey does not play a role yet in the Coalition Talks but this will come up. I would like to dwell on three areas where i think we also will get some interesting discussions today. One is concerning domestic situation after the coup. The rifts aggravated between within the Turkish Society between turks and kurds. Dh is not the situation that should be welcomed by anyone. We should try to do as much to keep the Turkish Society together and not to split them. From my point of view, no Political Force to bridge these dangerous trends and maybe we can come Forward Together to give some recommendations on that. Economically, as you all know the turkish is on an all time low right now. Since 2000, Economic Development was very impressive. Now it seems to me that turkey is facing this middle income trap. In order to overcome such a middle income trap, Goldman Sachs identified years ago four area how you can overcome middle income trap. One is maco economic stability, political maturity, openness investment of trade and impro improvement in the quality of education. Lets see if todays conference can identify areas where turkey has fulfilled any of these requirements. On Foreign Policy, turkey and the eu relations are in deep trouble. The European Commission assesses that turkey doesnt fulfill the cop copenhagen criteria into the eu. The turkeyu. S. Relations are in trouble. Different views on syria, the syrian kurds, interleague, the zarab trial. The arrest of americans and the halt of Visa Services in turkey to name a view. The protests i would say and the violation of basic rights, the jailing of germans, german citizens and german journalists in turkey. The meddling of turkish officials in the german election campaign. The refusal to german lawmakers to visit german troops on a nato base and the linked relocation of units outside nato territory to jordan. This is unprecedented. It had happened. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a lot to discuss. Im really looking forward to that. To your input and to your active participation. I would like to thank the middle east institute against and the staff for making this event possible. Let me now introduce the moderator of the first panel. She is from Johns Hopkins and shes really, really informed and experienced turkey and middle east specialists. The floor is yours. Thank you so much. Thank you to all of you for coming. Thank you very much. Its a little different. We have much, much to talk about. I want to briefly introduce our panelists as well. You have their biographies in your brochure. Hes moderator to make a tiny grammatical point where ever i go. It says Peoples Democrats Party with apostrophe after the people. In fact the translation is peopl peoples because it means multiple peoples. We have the professor of Political Science at san diego state. We have an extraordinarily esteemed panel for this discussion. I was thinking about what are the issues i want to bring up and i wanted to publicize the event. I was trying to tweet about Different Things we can cover. I was thinking everything from the kurdish issue. Everything from things that touch on economy, touch on Foreign Policy. Its very difficult to understand the kurdish issue without understanding syria and iraq. Its difficult to understand russias relation with turkey if you dont understand the economy. Its a lot of connection among the panel well be seeing. I try to tweet about it. I couldnt even get a quarter of those issues in with the extra letters. Well leave a lot of time for questions. This is great audience. Im sure youll be interested to ask this panel your pressing questions. I want to start with a general question. Well kind of drill down into the specific issues. I want to ask all the panelists. Obviously, thinking about things that are connected. Difficult to understand any of the akps domestic and foreign policies or potentially moving up those elections as some are now talking about. What i want to ask panelists is what do you think the akp or the greatest challenge in the upcoming elections. Whether they be held in 2019 or moved up to 2008 will be. How do you think the party or he is or will try to address that challenge . Okay. Good morning. Since this is going to be the first time in which we had president ial elections, i think its important to emphasize that. Then this did not work out. You can also like how on earth the party wants to make the deal so they will have a chance. It means image well never take it. It will come into and selfdestruct. The ruling party, akp, making a deal with the kurdish nations. It was also very controversial. Now the challenge is coming back to your question is making sure that the turkish nation kept happy. This becomes prior concern. The person was in the next president ial elections or in 2019. Then the challenges we have different integral part. This is going to be a major challenge. Let me just make my own point. I look at the turkish politics, theres the secular guys and this has been going on since early republic. Obviously the story is much more complicated but what i want to say is hes very powerful, a strong leader. A at the same time his power depends on the majority. He needs to make sure he wins next elections. Thank you very much. Just to add onto a bit, i think the elections is a good occasion to look back on when trying to understand the dangers for the akp right now. We can see he really can be dictated by election before deck at a timing his policies. When you look at what happened with the Peace Process and how it wasnt benefitting him numerically and how he could suddenly swerve into the nationalist base we were talking about. He face a huge risk to whatever he does not just just nationalist base will be fragmented, but no election will probably do. Whether that is fragmented or not, in terms of the countrys economy for the first time, it will be at a stage where he probably wont be able to hide it as much. I think until now certain cracks have been covered pretty well but i think we have to be look at the case and how that could have a severe Economic Impact in the next few months. That will probably be a huge factor. I think people are expecting that now. Thats probably going to be a crack too far. We saw that attempted coup has strengthened his hand domestically in terms of consolidating his significant authority in all processes in the country. Its helped on his way. Especially if the case in new york, what kind of decisions come out there will probably be pretty significant for any election. That seems to be a little funny but something thousands of miles away in the u. S. Will have a huge domestic impact in the campaign well be the first elected president in the new system. How much of an impact shell have in fragmenting that nationalist vote. Im not too sure. No one expects her to make a huge gain or threat in any kind of authority or seat, take anything in that regard from erdogan. Hes been severely trying to consolidate especially in the past one and a half years after the collapse of the Peace Process. The challenge is, if any, will come from outside turkey. Excellent. For decades ive been critical of my colleagues studying in asia. They study something that doesnt matter at all. When you say someone, you dont before finding yourself in his or her shoes. I find myself in the same weird position discussing turkish elections that do not matter at all. Erdogan will never go with any election results. He will rig it, he will cancel it. No one can challenge him. He has full control over the media, economy and beaurocracy. Certainly policies, eu policy, u. S. Policies may hurt erdogan economy. The money floating from qatar may be limited, shrunk. That may hurt him. Hes a very smart guy. He always look at the coming trends. For example, there was a National Coming and i was expecting him to be damaged by this wave of turkish nationalism. So now, for example, im expecting secular wave. A secular backlash. He seem to be prepared even for that returning. Has no limitation to use any discourse, any means. One is economy which matters. Obviously, we are human beings. If we have an economy crisis, you find scapegoats. We produce excuses, blame someone in the party. In the long run, i think ak people, many of my friends and family at the political level, at the basic level, may are losing morality. Turkey is under a very unprecedented ethical crisis. The basic line is its totally gone which is surprising and disappointing and heartbreaking for me which is happening with a constant that claims to be very moral because of certain nationalistic they consider themselves moral people. It congresswomans to supported political leaders. In the very long run, there may be a certain level of free thinking morality, consciousness at the very heart of the ak we may be hopeful about the future of turkey. Until that comes i think the regime is well established. Does the opposition pose a challenge for erdogan or are other challenges much more worrisome . I think opposition and the ballot box are necessary evils. His key strategy is his weakness. Now the second stage is chp. Hes being tried for treason that can bring life in jail. Just a couple of days ak, erdogan indicted the whole 60seat party council. Those of you who have been following the news. As of last tuesday a couple hours before u. S. , zarrab case and a couple of hours before the chp leader was to announce erdogan extended families offshore accounts, Prosecutors Office issued an arrest warrant against me arguing that i was a witness. It guilty of providing a fake document. Now, i think this is erdogans main challenge. Needs to criminalize the opposition but at this point he can only do it in a farce way. In the Prosecutors Office is capable of checking the witness list. Even if i were there, even under turkeys state of emergency being called a witness to a trial is not a criminal offense. I think the key challenge is this. What do you do in a democracy thats just a ballot box where all the Major Players are criminalized. For example, just a couple of days ago, one of the akp legislatures said we should ride the house of the chp leader and confiscate all of its belongings to look for clues of treason. Now, sure, erdogan can do it. Meaning he can continue to criminalize my other colleagues. There are still a few who havent been indicted. Then ultimately when it comes to 2019 or early elections, he will need to play this game with us. Hes doing the same thing with the good party too. How will turkey or how will erdogan retain the semblance of any competitive authoritarians. It at least requires an iota of possibility that the opposition could win the elections. Even that semblance is necessary. 2019, we might not have that. At the same time theres very strong push for criminalization. Thats what ensures the survival of the regime. Survival of a ruler who has no exit strategy. My prediction is its quite difficult to predict anything. We will continue to run up to the elections. Live in a progressively toxic environment. Leftist, they will all be smeared. Simple societies too. Then in the last three months in the run up to the election, erdogan has to come up with a normally how wrecked and imprisoned, tortured, exiled. He has to come up with some sort of opposition like looking actors so there can be a ballot box at the end of this. I was not the only candidate. There are a few other candidates. How strongly erdogan cracks down on the opposition. There are always individuals in various political factions who might be willing to play what we call the neonationalist game, the hard liner game, prone to conspiracy theories. Yes, erdogan is not out there but there is a global conspiracy. Thank you very much. I want to turn back. I want to turn to the kurdish question. Ive written about name calling and the jailing of the to cochairs a and so forth, we see this criminalization. There was this understanding that the kurds would get some cu cultural or other rights would be given to them and they would support the president ial process. If thats the response they have seen if they no longer agree to support that, what would the Kurdish Movement have done differently . Was there anything they could have done differently to prevent the scene we see now . I get the impression we live in a country theres a master of puppets and this master decides on everything. Its a complete observation of Mass Movement in turkey. You dont see much with the exception but in turkey if you look more closely. You go beyond circles, you see vi vibrant, active society. I try to say theres a very strong tendency. At the same time theres a Strong Society. Its not that simple. Its much more complicated story. Coming back the your story, your question, if you are kurdish and it has many different faces. Its like the movement. Its been around for a long time. Do not always reflect what they want to achieve. Thats because the primary goal is to survivor which has been access on the very difficult conditions for more than 40 years. As long as they have people willing to fight for the insurgency then they can approach to make any kind of deal or negotiations. This is important to keep in mind. We can make the argument what happened in 2013 was like a miss at some point they need to make some kind of compromise. They need to find their tushish government. Erdogan is willing to give them some shamall concessions. As long as there are people willing to kill and fight, they always have leverage. Now turkey manage insurgency. If you look at what happened throughout the year, how many attacks they were a i believe to stage. Its kind of feasible insurgency. Its going to stay there. Its always some problem for turkish government. Before the president ial system, my belief is that the best, maybe the most optimistic way for the kurdish woman to be getting some concessions and being maybe like less violent is basically being part of a coalition government. There was a real possibility like in june 2015 after the first sign of elections. Theres no such possibility. He will decide on it. Its more like worst than what used to be the parliamentary system because more like possibilities for being part of a coalition government. There was some kind of real possibilities for Kurdish People to become ministers as long as this Peace Process was true. I can make more demands about the referendum and maybe we can keep it like for next time. The first thing id like to specify is that the criminalization of the kurdish calls didnt start with erdogan. This goes back a long time and the akp comes from a political tradition where in the 90s, its members of parliament. Activists were killed on the streets. This is the tradition, all the backdrop for the Peoples Democratic party. Secondly, the gra gramatic correction of all the people in turkey. In a lot of places, it has a prokurdish element but its not just a prokurdish party. A