Congress. My name is sandy, ill be chairing this discussion. As many of you know, chinas 19th Party Congress wrapped up last week in beijing. For those who follow china, a Party Congress year is like game of thrones and awards season rolled into one. This is how i describe to nonchina friends, detailed profile, whos who and how they are connected top up everywhere. Everyone makes predictions how they will make it on the committee, the pinnacle of power in china. This Years Congress was really all about one man. That man was general secretary xi jinping. Prior to the congress, questions surrounding xis strength dominated debates among china watchers. For some analysts, any doubt about xis strength was put to rest when they amend, xi jinping chinese characteristics for a new era. Xi is the First Chinese leader to have his name enshrined in the constitution while still it alive since mao. Ive been reading headlines xi is now the strongest chinese leader in his since mao, perhaps even stronger. What youll hear in a minute from our speakers, this is debatable. In his report to Party Congress a few weeks ago xi used new era, compared to using it once in the speech in 2012. Although theres still questions surrounding the nature of xis power and what he intends to do with it going forward, what we do know is that according to xi china is embarking on a new era and xi is in control. Hes definitely steering the ship. China will do things their way as xi described it in the work report several times. Chinas unique culture compels china to seek a place on the world stage. The Kissinger Institute focused on this aspect of xis thinking for quite sometime in our work, which is why im plugging it. Weve rooted our analysis on a better understanding how china sees itself, xi sees it and history and how it translate to policy. Under editorial stewardship of my colleague, who is somewhere around here, i dont know where she is, Kissinger Institute a web a platform, a curated, soft power under leadership of xi. The purpose is to help measures understand the connections between xis interpretation of history and culture and the policies hes pursuing. We believe this platform is important important than ever because of the overwhelming emphasis on culture and civilization in the work report he mentioned 121 times. Thats why we took time today. Well introduce you later. First our speakers what this new xi era means, we have ambassador roy, founding development of emerit emeritus, kissinger, all over asia, ambassador posts, singapore, indonesia and china. Robert is senior director of institute, began as a diplomat in late 80s, early 90s. Hes a fluent world leader and has interpreted for world ledders such as henry kissinger. Ive asked both speakers to speak for 20 minutes, then well leave it open for discussion. If you guys want to well let you sit first before we start, so its not so like robert wants me to clarify its College Language materials english language analysis . Mapping chinas cultural genome web platform is bilingual. We give you chinese and english language translation. If you dont speak chinese, youre still welcome to take a look at what weve done. Stape, youre on. Good afternoon, the 19th Party Congress has come and gone. Lets consider three propositions, xi jinping emerged as most powerful leader in china . Yes. Did he enhance his position at Party Congress . Yes. Is he all powerful . No. Lets look at some of the assumptions before the Party Congress. Those who argue xi acquired Unlimited Power to the extent negating concept of collective leadership thought it possible or even likely xi jinping would wave the age limits, replace the premier, Politboro Standing Committee with cronies, adding thought to Party Constitution and other ways depart from the precedent set during the last few decades. Lets examine these propositions in terms of the results of 19th Party Congress. Were age tlimts expected . Yes. Any exceptions no . Was premier also put aside . No. Was xi jinping thought added to Party Constitution . Yes. Did xi jinping keep the Standing Committee the same size . Yes. Did xi jinping pack the committee with his proteges . No were those promoted based on seniority . By and large, yes. Were potential successors elevated to Standing Committee . No. Does this mean xi jinping intends to keep the top position after 2022 . Not necessarily. A lot of people in the meddey say this means because the successors werent put on the Standing Committee that he intends to stay on after 2022. But lets remember, the precedent for putting two successors, one for general secretary and one for the premier onto the Standing Committee only took place ten years ago. The 17th Party Congress. At the time the Standing Committee was nine members, not seven members. So the Standing Committee is smaller now. If you put the successors onto the Standing Committee, youd have far fewer positions for Current Power holders who want to move up. The second point is the raonall of the existing people stepped down was because of the age limits, not because there was successors in waiting. Those age limits were not changed. So when we do into 2022, the age limits are still in place, and we will have to wait and see whether xi jinping has the power five years from now to wave the age limits if he wants to stay on beyond 2022. One final point, was there any change in the number of military officers on the politboro and Standing Committee. The answer was no, there was no change. No. Now, what are the changes for u. S. China relations. First of all dealing with familiar cast of characters. Same general secretary, same premier. The top u. S. Expert in the chinese government, who Many Americans going back 30, 40 years know very well because he played a major role in u. S. China for decades. He was here as an ambassador a few years ago, he went on to become foreign minister. He left to be promoted to be state counselor for for affairs and now hes preempted to politboro. Vice premier who handled the china side and Strategic Dialogue between the two countries was also elevated to Politboro Standing Committee. Hes not a specific u. S. Hand but he has lots of experience in dealing with the United States in his role as our principle interlocutor in the dialogue channels we have set up. So theres an element of continuity in those had will be influential on u. S. China relations in the top chinese leadership. Lets look at the global aspects. The work report delivered by xi jinping to the Party Congress makes it clear that china is willing and, indeed, eager to step into the Global Leadership role that the United States is moving away from in his speech xi jinping endorsed economic globalization and called for china to keep an open economy. He also noted that the Chinese People have turned away from being passive to being active. He defined the new stage in chinas development as the era in which china approaches the Worlds Center stage day by day and continues to make a greater contribution for mankind. He summed it up by saying china will continue to play the role of a responsible major country, actively participate in the reform of Global Governance system and constantly contribute chinas wisdom and strength. So we should not look for a passive china on the world stage. This is a leader who wants to push china to the forefront of world affairs. We can assume well be dealing with a strong leader with a clear sense of the Ambitious Goals that he wants china to achieve by 2020, by 2035, and by mid century. The trap is alive and well. Xi jinping is projecting by 2035 chinas economic and s and t will grow by leaps and bounds. Im using his language. China will remain among top innovation oriented among the world. His goal complete modernization of chinas defense and military by 2035. By mid century, he projects china will become a country whose comprehensive National Power and international influence will be at the forefront. The Chinese Peoples army will rank among the top militaries in the world. The chinese nation then will stand tall among the nations of the world with an even more highspirited attitude. It makes china sound like a frisky, great power. You heard that first here, frisky world power. Frisky world power, thats right. We will have to see exactly what highspirited means. I think it means it wont be passive. Its far from clear that the United States will have the will, the resources and the leadership to deal with this type of challenge unless we do a better job of managing our domestic affairs. Against this background, im google to put forward the proposition that the 19th Party Congress represents a giant step forward in demonstrating that china has the will, the resources, the leadership, and the timetable for playing a much more significant role on the world stage. But im also going to argue it represents a giant step backwards in terms of the ideology underpinning that larger role on the global stage. In essence, the Party Congress marks a basic shift in the direction of chinas development away from what i would call modern concepts toward premodern concepts that held back the development of the modern world for many centuries. This shift is designed to reduce the influence of western values and western models, which xi jinping, in my judgment, is confusing with modern values and modern models, xi jinping made clear in the work report that china will not become more western as it modernizes. Instead it will become something distinctively chinese with the party firmly in control. In a sense, this is the culmination of the campaign against western values and concepts that is intensified in china over the past two years. There were, as sandy mentioned, either 78 i counted 77 references to the term with chinese characteristics in xi jinpings work report to the congress. Now, for several decades, china has been using the term socialism with chinese characteristics to cy its move away from essentially planned economy to one driven largely by market forces. In xi jinpings work report, the term with chinese characteristics is now applied to virtually every aspect of Chinese Society, including its military forces, its major power diploma diplomacy, its legal system, its political development, its institutional arrangements, its medical and health services, its culture, its philosophy and social sciences and even its new types of think tanks. All of those terms used with chinese characteristics in the work represent xi jinping presented. Those of you who are students of chinese history will immediately recognize this takes us back 2300 years to the famous white horse dialogue discussed by a philosopher back in the third century b. C. He raised the philosophical question of whether a white horse is a horse. Since the quality of horseness does not necessarily include the attribute of color. In this sense a white horse is not a horse. Because a horse may just as well be black or yellow. In other words, when you limit a prod category with a specific characteristic, you are negating the china has made great contributions to science and philosophy over the centuries. But one could argue that to insist that philosophy or science should have chinese characteristics is the denial of the universal attributes of philosophy and science. Galileo encounters this several centuries ago when the ruling power at the time insisted that science needed to have religious characteristics. During the stalin period we are struggling with this problem in the United States where we have the concept of science with republican characteristics that rejects global warming. Leaving these philosophical reflections aside, the message is clear. China intends to do things its own way. But paradoxically, xi jinping also claimed that chinas example can serve as a model for other countries that want to Speed Development and maintain their own independence. In xi jinpings words, china is on a Development Path that is contributing chinese wisdom and Chinese Solutions for resolving the problem of mankind. The government, the military, the people, academia and all circles, the party leads. In a separate passage, it said the party had to provide guidance to every aspect of thinking and behavior in china. The party is supposed to provide guidance on these questions. Now this is an implicit rejection of modern values because the heavy emphasis on doing everything in the chinese way has a heavy dose of cultural chauvinism. In essence, the Party Congress is saddling china with an anan knack chronistic there are four central requirements that the party must meet as specified in earlier Party Constitutions and they have now added a fifth one, which is uphold ruling the party by the party and practicing strict selfgovernance in every respect. Even the romans 2000 years ago were smart enough to ask the question who guards the guards themselves. By ignoring this question xi is putting klein on a collision course with modernity. We shouldnt be comparing xi jinping to m strong leaders i would divide into three classes. Stalin is an example in a tightly controlled system of a leader who, through the purges of 19361938 gained absolute control own the party and the country and in his last 15 years of life he was unchallenged in his control of politics and the party in the soviet union. In a more relaxed approach to authoritarianism because while he strongly believed in one party rule, he believed this rule did not need to encompass every aspect of human thought and behavior. And he believed in letting 100 flowers bloom which is ironic because he helped suppress the movement in the middle of the 1950s. But in his role as the most powerful leader in china, he permitted many ideas to bloom in china and he was able to maintain continuity in policy direction with some bumps but essentially a smooth path toward rapid development. The leader in singapore represented a similar approach of being able to maintain stability and policy direction. These are examples of strong leaders because they were able to manage both policy direction and maintain stability under conditions over an extended period of time. Chairman mao was not a strong leader in this sense. His last 15 years were marked by massive convulsions in china because of challenges to his leadership. You may find that were saying some of the same things. Could i ask you to raise your hand if theres an empty chair to your left. Please feel free sitting on the sides to fill in and grab yourself a real seat. We wont judge you. Nice and high. Well, one of the things that we always try to do at the ki Kissinger Institute is give a feel for chinese reads. If you look not only at the xi jinping work report and the official developments, but you look also at the layer of officially sanctioned interpretations and actions during and afterward, youll find that what is being hailed in the party run media with reference to xi but also to china is confidence. This is also one of the keynotes of the 19th Party Congress, that we now have a confident leader and a confident china, including a culturally confident china. While american analysts and other foreign analysts have tended to focus on some of the contradictions in xis administration and thought, some of the blind spots and some of the fragilitfragility, within c itself the focus has been mostly on the first part of his work report which focused on chinas successes, chinas many achievements and the list that she gives is impressive and i think for the most part very accurate. From a Strategic Point of view from the United States and other nations when we look at china, while we need to be aware of the kinds of inconsistencies and these limiting conceptual factors, it may be that the biggest challenge to the United States and chinas regional neighbors comes not from these weaknesses but from the very success of china that xi and many others are paying attention to. Chinas primary task was now to satisfy the peoples increasing demands for what he called a wonderful life in the face of incomplete and unbalanced development. I see no reason to question xis sincerity. If you look at the work report, you will see it begins with this very important list of chinas successes over the past five years in xis first term and also over the previous 35 years. As important as the 19th Party Congress has been, it hasnt changed fundamental political question that i believe china faces. You the fundamental question is can a party born in the 20th century which adapted secretive and paranoid leninist practices in a desperately po