Strategic International Studies and last about one hour. Good morning and welcome to todays launch event for the Energy Outlook. The director here at csis, i cannot tell you how excited i am for todays event. This is focused on a biannual basis, one of the things that we got most excited about at staff level. This is a benchmark product not just in the u. S. But for the world. As we consider plans for our energy future. We will see some of the key outputs of this new idea this morning from director decarliss and his colleague. We will have a few minutes to talk about how this occurs and how industry people and Civil Service can look at the idea and where it fits into the broader constellation of forecasts and documents we have. Thank you again for joining us and if youd like to come up, director, give the podium to you. All right, good morning, everyone. Its an honor to be able to kick off our presentation of the International Energy outlook for 2023. Before i get started, i want to give a huge thanks to the eia staff. There is an enormous amount of effort going into the analysis and delivery the report so i want to thank them. Also want to thank joseph and the staff for hosting this event. I want to talk a little bit about what eia does. We are the statisticalnd Analytical Agency within the department of energy. That means that we are tasked with unique of 30 to collect ener data from u. S. Industry. We publish that data and is used by different stakeholders. We use that data internally to inform our projections. We view our data as a critical source of information within the ited states. By law, all of our products are independent of approval by any other officer or member of the u. S. Government. We prize that independence because its important to us. This particular product, the International Energy outlook, explores longterm trends in supply and demand around the world. Whats new in this years report . You will see a similar look and feel. You will see it in the narrative. I have a background in modeling and its important that analysts and modelers be able to explain th model results and translate them into a realworld context and the only way to do that is focus on the narrative. You will see technical notes that will appear as light blue boxes within theartive. Thatan opportunity to take a deeper technical dive on rtular subjects for readers who arentested. Weve got three of those technical notes, one focused on electric vehicle projections, the representation of storage and the electricity sector, and a representation of global refineries we also emphasize the range of results for the cases we model, similar to the ae. Were also introducing new cases that focus on examining the capital costs associated with zero Carbon Technologies. We have also made several improvements to the model work itself. We have new analysis regions. We have 16 different regions and we think they offer better geographic alignment. We have a brandnew oil and natural gas supply module thats been incorporated into our modeling framework. You will see results from that. We have increased the temporal resolution in our electricity model so we know model Electricity Supply and demand across 280 eight separate time slices and thats important to model wind, solar and battery dispatch. Finally, we made several assumptions about the impact of russias fullscale invasion of ukraine. You will see in appendix where we go sector by sector and talk about what assumptions we made and how its informed error analysis. I want to talk about the cases we model in theieo. We only model current lations. We freeze our consideration of current laws anlations as of march of 2023. Thisoking at policy around the world. For the united states, the reare from our and our jewel our annual Energy Outlook and those lc assumptions were frozen in november of 2022. These tions about policy carried through the cases we modeled. Getting onto the specific cases, we have a reference case. We are assuming that annual gdp grows at 2. 6 annually. We assume the price of brent crude starts at 100 two dollars per barrel and varies a bit and ends up close to 102 per barrel again in 2015 in 2050. We think there is a cost and zero technology thatsin solar, batteries and nuclear and it can achieve Cost Reductions he Cost Reduction and we achieve this through education learning. When those technologies double, cond set of cases focusesost. On Economic Growth. We assume the average annual gdp growth rate is 1. 8 and the high cases 3. 4 . These macro cases have a big impact because when you have high macro growth, it leads to high use demand and requires higher supplies of energy and the converse is true when youve lower macro growth and lower demand and less Energy Supply is required. Next we have our oil price trajectory. We have a low and a high these are formulated outside the model framework. In the low case, we assume brent crude reaches 40 per barrel in 2050. Zero Carbon Technology cost sumption is new to this idea. We look at the cost that was achieved for each of those technologies in 2050 and then we looked at the trajectory that takes is 40 below that cost. We just assume constant cost projection horizon. These are the highlights from this years report. The first is that increasing population offset the effects of Carbon Intensity on admissions and i will provide you more details in a moment on that. The second is that the ship to renewables to makeuring electricity demand is driven to make growing electricity demand is driven by energy concerns. Im going to give some high level view of that and angelina will add additional details. There are some things i want you to keep in mind. We are working on it. There some things i want you to keep in mind as you look at these results. When we model these cases, we take a deliberately restrictive approach in the ieo. They are plausible but sober. Here are some of the assumptions we make. We only account for current policies and we are looking at policies that are legally enforceable. We dont model aspirations or targets unless there is a legally enforceable policy that backs it up. We look at evolutionary reads of technological change based on recent history and we dont consider sweeping changes in Consumer Preferences are major geopolitical events that could produce durable change and shift the trajectory of the system. Its certainly possible those things can happen. Its entirely possible we could get new policies and there could be unforeseen geopolitical events or Technology Breakthroughs we dont model and thats exactly why you should not think of the ieo as a forecast. We are trying to do Something Different here. We are providing a set of policy neutral baselines that focus on the current trajectory of the Energy System. I think that provides the really useful point of reference for decisionmakers against which they can judge future actions and developments. Ok, this brings us to our first set of results. Across most of the cases, we find Energy Related co2 emissions continue to rise through 2050 under current ls. We have a regional model, 16 regis and im showing the results aggregated up to the global scale. The line represents the reference case and the great band around the reference case shows the full range across al of the cases we model. Moving lefto right, we he global gross domestic pduct which you can te is growing rapidly. In the middle, we have primary energy usage. You can see upward trend and finally to the right, we have Energy Related co2 emissions. In each of these three panels, the bounds on the great bands are due to the macro cases. They are setting the bounds on each of these. As you look from left to right, you notice the slope of the cone keeps decreasing. Gdp is growing the fastest and finally Energy Related co2 has the least slope. To get more insight, we can further break those three panels down into four panels. Some of you might recognize this as the terms in the kaya identity we have global population. There is no gray van because one population projectiocaies through all of the cases that we are modeling next w have gdp per capita which you can take to be a rough measure of per capita annual inme. Next we have Energy Intensity which is measure of energy per dollar gdp and finally carbon intensitwhh is the amount of carbonmiions you get. Th uncertainty in the two middle councils are being set by the high and low macro cases and for the carbon intensities, its being said by zero carbon cases. If you take the product of the first three terms, you get total Global Energy consumption. If you take the product of the four terms which is the way the kaya identity is designed, you get total global ca2 and missions co2 emissions. Population and gdp capita are increasing out of pretty fast rate. There is more people and they tend to demand more Energy Intensive goods and services. At the same time, we are able to e less energy per dollar of value in the ecoms of Energy Intensity is clear dlining. For every unit ofnergy we consume, we are emitting less rbon admissions. Thats brings us to theht on the title is that the upward pressure on the population tends to outweigh the downward pressures we are seeing from reduced Energy Intensity over time. We can disaggregate even further so this is just looking at gdp growth rates by regions, there are 16 regions. We have high Income Countries on the left on the low Income Countries on the right. India has the highest arage gdp growth rate but it varies quite a lot by region. Remember there is all of this detail under the surface. We can also look at total energy and disaggregate that a little bit. We are looking at fossil fuels versus nonfossil fuels. We find that increasing demand and current policies drives steady growth in fossil energy but even faster growth in nonfossil sources. You can see the reference cases align and the bands represent the range across the cases. With fossil which is the black and gray, it starts at 505 quads in 2022 grows anywhere from 140 based on thewith nonfossis all of the renewables and nuclear, we started at 100 33 quads, that grows from 72 125 from 100 to 25 . You see that with the blue line. We can, again, break it down even a bit further here, we are looking at the fossil and we have broken that down to specific fuel types. You sethe stacked bar for 2022, thelack outline represents all of the fossil sources and the grayutline represents all of the nonfosl resources, we have 2022 all the way to the left at allf the other bars reprent a snapshot across the cases in 2050. You see how each of these fuel tys is changing over time. Generally what we find is that fossil fuels hold onto their share through time buthe renewables really pick up. Most of that Renewable Development is taking place in the electricity sector. We find that if you look at the electricity sector, renewables plus nuclear combined represent roughly 55 through 65 of global Electricity Supply in 2050 across the cases. Obviously, there is a lot going on here. At the regional level, the regional patterns we are not showing here and that will depend on prevailing policy, trade patterns, and the cost of global resources. With that i will go back to the highlights and turn it back over to Angelina Larose who is our assistant administrator. Good morning. I will keep on with the trend of breaking things down and go into more detail surrounding our three highlights. I encourage you all to take a deeper dive into our website following this event we will have a lot of data and analysis we are posting related to this audio. We are walking you through the interesting findings that are her main highlights starting with our first one about increasing population and Income Growth with consumption of Energy Related admissions despite declining carbon intensities. This is Energy Consumption by sector, as joe oriented to you all, a solid line represents the reference case and the range and area represents the range of production from our side cases. Any of the Energy Consumption growth across all sectors across all cases, easy on this slide the industrial sector includes manufacturing, refining, and other subsectors. The largest share of Energy Consumption also has the largest share of growth through 2050. The industrial sector has the widest range of consumption across cases to the broad range of industrial growth output assumptions across our cases. They sensitivity to duke microeconomic drivers. The sensitivity to do micro economic drivers. Reaching a growth rate of 1. 7 per year. In our little Economic Growth case we see an industrial Energy Consumption. This slide is similar to the one we just saw but looking at the consumption across cases and sectors. Similar to what we saw in the west, liquid consumption also continues for 2050. The fastesgrowth in liquid consumion comes in our industrial sector. It is used in chemical production and legal fuel and construction and agricultural equipment. It is the largest share of liquids consumption, and the ship was ectric vehicles. Overall there is shift towards electric vehicles. Overall there is the use in transportation. We will take a closer look at the industrial consumption. This slide is looking and focusing on consumption in china and india in particular. While we are conduing increasing Energy Consumption in the industrial sector, we ar seeingnergy intensity. At regional level, there are two prevailing drivers of Energy Consumption inhe industrial sector. These are industrial output which is a measure of Economic Activity and Energy Efficiency or Energy Intensity. We see dferent trajectories in china and india. As you seen the left, in china some cases have industrial consumption declining or leveling off compared to india where we have growth across all of the cases. In china, growth output over 2024 combined with significant Energy Efficiency gains slows and decreases industrial Energy Consumption in some cases. In particular china is increasing production which is significantly less Energy Intensive. In india the growth and industrial growth output which more than tripled in most cases and even when couples in the high Economic Growth case quituples in the high Economic Growth case in india. The primary metals, chemicals, and others. I am shifting to transportation and there is a lot to unpack on this slide. I want to do my best to walk you through some of the main highlights. On the left is a graph of travel demand and on the right is the past travel demand i mowed in 2025. That graph sws an indepth up 2025. When we put jacked travel demand to return prepandemic predict travel demand to return prepandemic. You see the overall towel demand is growing. It is highly sensitiveo changes in dposable income per capita and employments. There are findings at the regional level. Much of the travel demand is concentrated in india or both where both the disposable and job growth disposable income and job growth have increased. Africa, they continue to see growth in travel demand because of increases in employment. But to a lesser degree. In regions with Slower Growth and income and employment such as western europe and japan, per capita travel demand growth is limited. Global leak travel demand per capita growth across all cases and nearly doubled in the highgrowth case. This is a strong upward prsure on Energy Consumption. Turning to the graph to the rit, travel demand for a efficient modes transportation particularly lightduty vehicles and air travel rose in regions as incomes increased. As income rising incomes allo travelers to shift from an inexpensive to more expensive modes of transportation. You see that on the graph on the right where we have growth like lightduty vehicles as well as air which is in the first two panels and Slower Growth in buses and three wheelers what you see in the fourth graph. Aircraft travel which is highly sensitive to changes in income has increased in all regions, you see in the yellow. As well as the americas region, part of the green, two or three wheelers, consistent growth compared with aircraft and other travels. Each of these modes of technology, are offset a significant portion of Energy Consumption from the travel demand as well as from the shifting towards less efficient modes of transportation. Ok. My next slide. Imagine it before a panel [laughter] just as you all imagine, i am sure [laughter] this slide is looking at the share of electric vehicles in select regions and breaking out electric and hybrid vehicles. Lightduty vehicle travel, on road suite of vehicles to grow from 1. 4 billion in 2022 to more than to hook billion by 2015 2 billion by 2025. This w