Dealing with the famine. The 1922 show here entitled deliverance america and the famine in soviet. Russia 1921 to 23, and at the Hoover Institution that just closed this year, bread plus medicine american famine relief and soviet russia,. 1921 to 23. The informative exhibit catalog for the later exhibition is available through the Hoover Institution press. And i would encourage all of you to go online and get a copy. Youll never think of Cod Liver Oil the same way hes a lecturer in history and International Relations at stanford university, a Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution. And your moderator, please welcome her partner. So you tom, for a very generous thanks for putting together this panel, which as youre about to see. Its very interesting and thanks to you for inviting me to participate. So and to all of you for coming out today. We have three very interesting speakers, three historians who have a knack for bringing a fresh point of view to, familiar topics, three, one might say revisions ists in the best sense of the word. They questioned the conventional wisdom. They put it to the test. They force us to question our assumptions, historical events the way things turned out is not. They remind us necessarily the way had to turn out and of course when your subject is Herbert Hoover and is to say the hoover of presidency and postpresidency being something of a control theory and goes with the territory and thats a characteristic feature of three speakers today. So what im going to do is im going to introduce the first two speakers, the third speaker i will introduce after the break that will follow the first two talks, first up is justice donaghy an emerita professor of history at new college of florida, where he taught. From 1969 to 2005. Justice has devoted much of the past 35 years to research and writing on the subject of american isolationism in the years. 31 to 19 and 35 of his two most recent books, nothing less than war, 2011 and more precious peace 2022 deal respectively with americas entry into world war one and its role as a belligerent in that war justice ritchie, the author s link prize for dark time entry editing by the society for historians of American Foreign relations for a book he edited on the America First committee. His book storm on the horizon. The challenge to American Intervention 1939 1941 won the hoover book award in the year 2000. Its about america and anti interventionism at outset of World War Two the program says and i think this is right that just in is probably best known for his writings on the manchurian crisis of 1930 132. And that will be the focus of his talk today the second speaker Sean Mcmeekin is the Francis Flaherty of european history culture at bard universe city. Sean prolific author his most recent book stalins war a new history of World War Two shifts the focus the usual focus from hitler to Joseph Stalin and his his war aims. Sean also published 2011, a book called the russian origins of the First World War in he taking this revision point of view looks to Saint Petersburg and russia for the cause of the outbreak of the First World War, not much to germany and austria. The standard textbook case do interesting that the paperback of that book came out in 2013 just in time to join the abundant crop of books that came out that year marking the centennial of the beginning of world war one. So prominently reviewed a brilliant stroke for the publisher. And then just a few years. How does he do this . In 2017, he published a book called the Russian Revolution a new history and 2017, the centennial of the russian. Of 1917, sean is the recipient of several book the arthur good site book, the norman beat tomlinson jr book prize and the barbara jelavic book prize, among other honors. Hes a compelling writer, and even if you disagree, the point of view with the argument in the book, you the writing very sort of muscular and it draws you in hes one of the best writers in the field of russian soviet history today. It must be said in conclusion, that sean is a graduate of stanford university. He his b. A. In history there class of 1996. He can apply to everyone so but first lets call up to the stage enlist please join me in giving a warm welcome to justice donaghy. Well you so much bert and i want to begin by thanking tom swartz and the staff of the hoover library, the privilege of offering presentation. Tom has gone way beyond the call of duty and meeting my Airline Schedule on. Godly hours, my career goes back to 1970, when tom and bob wood were the major of let me begin my presentation this afternoon by turning to september 18th 1931, when about 10 p. M. Japanese railroad guards claim to have heard an explosion on the south railroad. The explosion took place about three miles north of the city. Monckton, now known as youngs ruin. The damage from this explosion was quite negligible. A train ran over the tracks soon afterwards. Some call, though, the opening shot of World War Two with the Japanese Army in manchuria, known as a quantum, an army using the incident to occupy manchurian city of modern it also occupied cities. 160 miles northeast of marton, 120 miles south east of manhattan. The japanese Prime Minister immediately ordered his war minister to do Everything Possible to stop the conflict. And the war minister did ask the quantum army to halt to make no further. Moreover, he promised civilian cabinet he would restrain the Japanese Army, and he kept this pledge four days, four weeks, four months repeating it until it was obvious that even the Central Command couldnt control its own forces in manchuria, forces that are quite popular, quite powerful in their own right, forces that are really an army within an army. By the way, the Japanese Army itself operated independently the cabinet as the whole one soaring german empire. It was responsible only to the emperor in 1919, and regulation Gave Authority to use, and i quote all means necessary to protect the south Manchurian Railroad that is not hold anything back. And the contra army took the decree its word and the control army in drawing up this for manchuria does not consult get this does not consult the chief, the general staff or the minister war or the foreign secretary or the Prime Minister. So Junior Officers in the Japanese Army are determining japanese policy. The civilians, the top brass are relatively helpless in the whole matter. So look at what the situation is at the very time when tokyo wants the japanese to pull back. Indeed at the very time that the war minister is the civilian government, that japan will soon get out the. Controlling army is not only forging ahead. It is outlining plans for a puppet regime. All the government in tokyo do is make futile promises. The japanese cabinet promises world that japan would soon return to the Railroad Zone as soon as its rights were. And needless to say, of these vows, all of these does not hinder the army one bit. In other words, the army, the civilian government. In most countries this would have been grounds for court martial. No army can run amok of a civilian command. Well, what about chinese resistance . The troops of the local warlord were weak on paper. They greatly outnumbered the japanese, but they were too disorganized to offer resistance and charge. Shek, the nominal ruler of china, is no help. He is too busy rebellions in central china. So the clinton army keeps pushing ahead. There is no effective obstacle in its path within days, it further defies the civilian government, the general staff for occupying the town of kirin that is 225 miles northeast of marton, and two days after that, the control army decides to set up an independent manchurian regency, a kind of puppet regent who would have some local authority. This is the socalled last emperor. You have seen the movie the of the manchu dynasty with the delightful name of henry hui. But japan dominate this new regime. It would control the defense of the country. It would control the Foreign Policy of the country. It would control the transport, the communication the country would have its own name unto ae it would have its own currency, its own postage, it would have its own bureaucracy. But every manchu official had a japanese adviser and this adviser made, the real decisions and many japanese see manchuria as crucial. Japan is in depression which muscle with most of west of the world mean syria has much of what japan wants. Its got lumber, its got coal, its got iron, its got steel, its got grain it owns the south. Manchurian, which is really a Huge Development company. Its not a simple choo choo train. Okay. By december 1st, the new japanese and a new ruling party comes into power, the party had endorsed expansion in china, but most of the ministry, most the government is military. So the indication is clear. Japan is in manchuria to stay and for several weeks both the league of nations and the u. S. Believed japans promises that they would get out. They received these promises in good faith. The league takes a few weak actions, makes a few general to show its concern. For example, it is all fighting then to leave manchuria, and thats china and japan to restore friendly relation. And a thought to japans would only be a matter of time the league sees no reason to involve its own covenant. A document that call for coercive measures in the event of international aggression. It sees no reason to invoke Kellogg Bryant pact of 1928. That renounced war and the language of the pact as an instrument of national policy. In 1928. Frank kellogg been u. S. Secretary of state and retired air force had been the French Foreign minister. Herbert hoover already has his hands full. So americas policy differs very little from the league. The great crash had taken place close to two years earlier. By the fall of 1931, the president had domestic problems in spades. He is facing massive unemployment. He is facing failing banks and businesses. He is facing a plummeting construction. He is facing a declining Gross National product. In short he has to wrestle with the great depression. And furthermore, hoover is bad relations with the press with powerful insurgents within own Republican Party and with the house of representatives, which democratic sometime in the latter half of 1931, he wrote a neither are to china nor our interests nor our dignity require us to go to war over questions. These acts do not imperil the freedom of the american people, the economic or moral fiber of our people. I do not propose to sacrifice one American Life for. Anything short of this at any rate, he continued, the japanese would never be able to, and i quote, japan offered china. And if they stay long enough, they will be absorbed or expelled by the chinese at. One point, he told an aide, well, just between ourselves, it would be not it would not be a bad thing if mr. His language should go into manchuria for with two thorns at his side. China and the bolsheviks. He would have enough to keep him busy for a while. And hoover realized this that the u. S. Acts lacks any military means of coercion. The american navy, for example, is far too weak to restrain japan. Now, hoover, secretary of state is henry stimson. Henry louis and stimson is a epitome of the american establishment, not just a diplomatic establishment, but the establishment period. His ancestors just fight in the american revolution. They fought in king philips war. Stimson himself graduated from exclusive Andover Prep School from yale, where he was skull and from Harvard Law School in 1897. His in the firm of another prominent secret area state, elihu root. In 1910, he runs an unsuccessful for governor of new york as a republican candidate. Hes also president tafts secretary of war. In 1917, he joined the army as a colonel in world war one. He commands an army battalion, france. In 1928 is governor general of the philippines. And in september 1931, hes a personal of the Japanese Foreign minister. So at first, with the powers of the league of nations, stimson is confident that the japanese civilian government can quell what he terms an army mutiny. Besides him, some thought the japanese had some legitimate grievances about china. He thought the chinese hadnt been terribly responsible in some of their actions. And on september 27th, simpson wrote this in his diary, which is at yale university, i want to let the japanese that we are watching them and the same time do it in such a way which will help foreign minister shinohara, who was on the right side and play into the hands of any nationalist. So stimson as a dove among those he does not denounce the japanese action publicly condemnation he feels will only jeopardize chances for peace. He opposes chinas call for an inquiry by the league of nations. He opposes suggestions from the european powers that an american sit the League Council. He refuses to invoke the Howard Bryant anti war which had outlawed war a means of instrument of national policy. He some belligerence to withdraw from the combat. He expresses a hope that japan and china could negotiate without outside interference and all of this. Stimson has president hoovers strong backing. Stimson refuses also to invoke what is called the nine power pact of 22. Now this is an agreement of the nine major powers in the west plus japan that pledges to respect chinas independence and territorial integrity. And the pact also calls for respecting the principle the economic open door. It was an integral part of what historian akira aryeh calls a washington system in some ways a counterpart to the system in europe established in 1919 it was signed and in 1925 in locarno, switzerland, you are seeking to stabilize great power relations in the pacific. You are seeking to sustain the relative status quo. So notice how cautious stimson is he certainly is seeking to confront japan. In midoctober, he and allow a minor u. S. Diplomat to sit with the lead counsel and even in the lead does not accuse japan of violating the kellog pact it just does what its done already it has both nations to stop and it finally sets a for japan to get out november but japan ignores the november 16th deadline. It just keeps pressing. It just keeps penetrating deeper into manchuria. Stimson, by the way, had to support the league deadline. He said that america retains, and i quote, complete independence of judgment at every step. Now, the french and british governments acting in individual capacities put genevas decision aside. Obrien writes a few notes to the japanese, but they just keep pressing forward. And when the League Council does in geneva at november 16th, and when it finds its deadline overlooked, ignored, stimson sends the former Vice President of the u. S. Charles dawes to consult League Leaders informally. And as the league cannot get the japanese out of manchuria and the u. S. Cant get the japanese out of manchuria doors, a league call for an independent investigation to look at the problem. Its an oh trick. Its been used by university faculties, by university from time to time. It gives the appearance of action it doesnt change a god blessed thing. In fact, it was a japanese who originally came up with the suggestion and close to a year later the league did issue a report its the lytton report it offered sensible suggestions of Japanese Special rights interests. The general principle of chinese sovereignty. But japan simply ignored its suggestions and i want to note that its only japanese conquest of cho that turned stimson around that makes them seek for methods of coercion for on january 2nd, 1932, japanese entered what is called chin cho. Now jin. So jin chow is 120 miles southwest of monckton. Its the last outpost of chinese resistance. And shinto is a city with huge residents. There is even a pretense for the japanese government to they are protecting anything here. The chinese are now retreating behind the great wall. Obviously, stimson is attempt to conciliate japan proved futile. Hes forced to consider stronger measures he had drank conciliation. He had gone slow confrontation. And now he saw his policy fail. So japan has to be shown and shown formally that america would not tolerate behavior, that america would not accept her actions. Now stimson decides to meet japans action by withholding diplomatic recognition from Japanese Aggression. This seems like a very shrewd way of doing things. You are protesting against japans. Youre saying the u. S. Will not support it. You might even rally enough of the worlds moral pressure to turn japan back as, Prime Minister of britain Stanley Baldwin said, you will get nothing out of but words. Big words. The french privately assure stimson of their complete accord with its not, but they would make no public statement. And even