To carnegie connects. Issues of americans in the world. The last discussion was the afternoon with a simple question, what foreign factor, our lee panelists, and myself included new the answer to that question before with we began. Not so today. The request he we pose, will american democracy survive november 3rd and beyond, is unanswerable. It may be overly dramatically rendered, but there are simply tomorrow unknowns and too many uncertainties and fears about the consequences of this election. However, there are also hopes. Rachel had written reflecting the fact for many its hard to imagine that the u. S. Wont find a way to muddle. Through. Ross argued in the New York Times on sunday that well definitely muddle through and then some. Let me quote what he said. Meanwhile, the scenarios that have been spun out in reputable publications where trump induces republican state legislators to overrule the clear outcome or militia violent intimidates the Supreme Court into vacating a Biden Victory bear no relationship to the trump experience that weve experienced. Our chief executive is not plotting a coup. Terms plotting 0 requires a conspicuous thing that he lacks. Maybe. But the american story would inexorably triumph and everything is going to be okay, cannot, and should never be taken for granted. They didnt take it for granted and neither did some of our president s and leaders. The rarely has this republic been more at sea and elections taking place of the sense of greater criessy and unfortunately, not to many the problem of mailin ballots which would constitute a huge percentage of votes counted. I would count at least five crises interlocked. The pandemic and threat to global hit since the influenza of 1918. An economic recession which has many economists scratching their heads as to structural problems and challenges in the economy. Poll lahrization and he biffle unrest. A loss of confidence in our institutions from the office to the census the and a president , the first in american history, who has already said repeatedly and publicly that he will not abide by the results of the election. As bart gellman has noted, trump may win or lose, but he will never concede and concession is more than just a ritualist ritualistic formulaic speech. Its a symbol that legitimizes the peaceful transfer of power in our electoral system. So how bad could it get . Are any of the nightmare scenarios associated with that likely. What are the Court Challenges to the election . And do we have the institutional guardrails, congress, the court, the constitution to keep us on track . As rachel has pointed out. How do we begin with with the political contract. And quoting Martin Luther king, quote, our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter. So, what can we do about all of this, this challenge before this threat before it materializes if and when it does . We have three extraordinary presenters to lead us out and create some reality based answers. Ill skip their resumes, Michael Steele is a Senior Advisor to the lincoln project. Mark, a writer in the atlantic. And youve seen his article and author as well as best selling angler, changing vicepresidency and Rachel Kleinfeld senior fellow where she focuses and i might add excels in an extraordinary fashion in writing and speaking on issues from the rule of law to security to governance and in fragile state. And its simple. Well open and round of q a from the audience. As far as the q a, ill read the instruction, well have a live q a section, use the live chat feature in youtube. Email Us Press Office at ceip. Org or tweet at us at carnegie and dow, using the carnegie connects. The droned on for too long. Michael, over to you. No problem, thanks and i appreciate it. Its great to be here and its particularly fun to be on a panel with rachel whom ive gotten to know and work with over the past year or so and i agree with everything youve said. Its incredible insightful talent. Ap its great to be with you and appreciate the work youre doing over at the atlantic. And so lets get right into the question because i think its an important one, will democracy survive november 3rd . And the short answer is, yeah, yeah, it will. It may look a little different, but it will. You know, its kind of ironic that ive got some of my republican friends, like senator mike lee saying were not a democrat say and thats the most important thing now. And that the fact of the matter is it goes to the heart of the answer to the point, it survives if you want it to. It survives if we, the people, want it to and that quote from dr. King, which for me is so salient and important right now, that you know, we really become our own end when we sort of turned our blind eye to things that matter. We in this democracy. We end this grand american experiment when we decide no longer to care about the things that matter. So, folks, what matters to you . This election matters to a lot of americans. The outcome of this election matters to a lot of americans, but even more important than that is the various institutions that have safeguarded our rights and liberties from our courts to our executive branches, to president to county executive. Theyve all played a role in securing the promise that laid out in our finding documents. You know, while the execution of those ideas and eideals have been flawed and problematic over the years, the underlying words matter. We the people in order to form a more Perfect Union. It didnt say to form a Perfect Union or to say that we were. Were constantly striving in this republic to create a voice and to give power to people. So when i looked at this election, thats paramount for me. Its why i stand in opposition to my own party because i feel theyve walked away from those ideas and those values for the musings and the rantings of one man. George washington proved that this country was not just about one person, it was not about one individual. Donald trump, unfortunately, is trying to prove him wrong and i have faith in reliance in the American People when they look at this and they see where we are and what this means to them and their families, who more importantly to the future of this country, that they will step into the power that is granted the granted to them in those founding words, we the people. The Court Challenges that we face right now, and to having a legitimate election is how we shore up those institutions, so the writings of individuals like bart and the work of individuals like rachel and a lot of smart people across this country matters now more than ever before. Their ability to coalesce and condense ideas and facts and information to inform the citizenry not just about what is at stake, but the undertrying truths that support whats at stake. That supports an open, free, Fair Election where we see litigation now in places like texas where the goorn said we only want one dropoff box in a county of five Million People. Let that sink in. No, thats not voting suppression, they say, at all. Five Million People going to one location to drop off their ballot, yeah, thats voter suppression. So being informed and engaged and understanding what the thing is youre seeing and hearing matters at these times, theyre why conversation like this with people way smarter than me. Im just a political guy, a guy that happened to be elected in politics, but i rely on my secretaries of state, you know, and people who have studied this, the political scientists. The lawyers and you know, the folks who kind of deal with the machinations of these things and we all understand exactly whats at stake. The process what happens over the next few weeks leading up to the election certainly is a number between the election and the inauguration itself does matter. To help me understand exactly what to expect on the back in. Yes, we have a president who is saying he wants his supporters to go people watchers. Lets be clear about that. They just cant show up and be poll watchers. Being a poll watcher is a specific regulated position in every county in this country. You have the county parties and the state parties have to identify ahead of time who those poll watchers are. I just get you in my neighborhood poll and start, you know, injecting myself into that process. So understanding what can be done, what cant be done, the consequences of violations that may occur does matter and thats why conversations like this are so important and at so glad to be part of this. Ill turn over now so smart people can lay down some your reputation has preceded you. You have given us all i think me for sure most enthusiasm. I wouldnt rule out by the way the root of politicians. The problem you describe, its necessary. Its critically important, necessary to the repair of what ails us. Through not sufficient. Committed individuals like you involved in the public conversation and political process, thats also going to be extremely important. Thanks again. Barton gellman, over to you. Well, i find michael reassuring, because it sort of voice of experience plus someone paying very, very close attention to whats happening now and can look at things with a bit of perspective. I am nonetheless somewhat more concerned i think about the prospects for a normal election or fourth digging through it intact at the far end or for getting this will not be a normal election. Well already passed that. Theres no chance of it. We have a president who has worked hard to the legitimate the vote count come to tell people and advanced that they cannot trust that the vote count will be accurate. There is almost nothing that could undermine the electoral process more than that. Then to have an Authority Figure telling you that the one mechanism we have for deciding who rules us, who we the people are delegating our political power to is broken, is filled with fraud, is rigged. Trump has said explicitly, and not offthecuff but in his prepared remarks as he accepted the republican nomination for president on august 24, he said the only way that we can lose this election is if the vote is rigged. So he has already ruled out the possibility that we the people, democratically, by our own accurate volition are going to remove him from power. I mean, in any of the if the ruler said that, we would be very concerned. He also is given several versions as weve all heard of a refusal to guarantee that he would honor the results of the election and enable a peaceful transfer of power. The one that was most alarming to me is the one, you always have to be careful about in too much coherence on the sort of what comes out of his mouth but i thought the message was fairly clear. He said in answer to the question about peaceful transfer of power, well, as you know we have a very big problem with the ballots and ballot fraud and he think he meant the mail in ballots picky set if you fix that then it would be a peaceful, and he switched directions in this sentence, and he said there wont be a transfer, frankly. It would be a continuation. He is saying that if the counting goes, the only way he thinks its acceptable then he is reelected. I think we can safely say based on his record and based on his actual words that under no circumstances literally will trump concede defeat in this election. And that turns out to be a very big deal because concession is the way weve ended elections in this country for well over 100 years. Its the moment of conception that tells you the fight is over, and as a political scientist would say is constituted of the authority of incoming president. It is that more than any other single fact about the election. Because we have no umpire. This is a game in which we dont have someone who keeps track of the score, keeps track of the time, blows the whistle and says okay, well, you won and you lost your edit doesnt matter how much the players or the coaches bellyache about it. Thats the result. Its over and everyone understands the decisive result has been achieved. People sometimes talk about the risk with trump are the concern even though it sounds fantastical, is he might lose election and refused to leave. Add in fact, our system does know very well how to respond to that. He would be escorted out and he would have some help with his luggage and the oval office would be ready for the next occupant. Thats not the concern. The concern is that trump could use the power in his office and the power of his control over his followers to prevent a decisive result from being obtained come to prevent a decisive result against him. We have never had a president who has said amidst the count that there is fraud happening, the vote is being rigged before our eyes. It is unclear how we will respond to that especially if he uses the power of his office, if an alternative official point of view. Not just his twitter account, not just the words that come up when he faces a microphone but actions of the government itself. Suppose that the Justice Department announces a a fraudn progress and an immediate investigation and the vote is being counted. Still votes are counted as evidence. Postal inspectors find irregularities with the male vote and suspend delivery of mail ballots. Or decide to reprocess everything to make sure that they valid postmark is been applied. Its action at the case that the Postal Service requires by regulation postmark be stamped on every letter, but election laws in some states require a postmark for mail in ballots. So suppose the postal inspectors say lets make sure we reprocess all these and theres a ballot and legible postmark to comply with electoral law, and by doing so takes things past the deadline. Trump as actual government power under law that could be abused and might even be found to be unlawful eventually after the fact that we dont get do overs in the election. And after the fact isnt good enough. Theres also what happens on election day itself. This is the first election in 40 years that is taking place without the oversight of a federal court over republican quoteunquote ballot security measures, which is another word for voter suppression. There is a pretext of guarding against voter fraud. Voter fraud is almost entirely a fictional concept. It is vanishingly rare. There was a good study done of 1 billion votes cast between 200024, of which 31 were identified as fraudulent. 31 out of 1 billion, which is the scale of the problem if you can call a problem. It certainly has the prospect whatsoever of affecting the results of an election but on grounds of voter fraud my crowns of this pretext republicans used to do things like they would have offduty police and sheriffs, and former military folks and large, scary people carrying guns, wearing armbands confronting voters, demanding to review their credentials to vote, warning its a felony to vote if youre if you are not r if youre in the wrong precinct, putting up big signs general intimidating people of color in minority neighborhoods, and trump has, for example, called up philadelphia which happens to be a large democratic stronghold and an essential swing state that he must win to be president , and he may be behind in the polls in pennsylvania but he taken shave a couple of points off by intimidating voters on the date of and by calling for mailin votes not to be counted, then who knows where that goes . Then there is what michael mentioned which is all interim between election date and the swearingin of the new president. There are milestones in the process that actually decide who the president is going to be. Ordinarily they are mere formalities and even a wellinformed voter would be forgiven for not knowing that december 14 is a very big day. Thats when the Electoral College meets and actually casts its ballots for the january 6 is a very big day which is when Congress Formally counts the votes that have been cast by the Electoral College. And there are many opportunities as i described in my piece for the atlantic for a candidate who has influence over fellow members and his party to interfere with the normal function of the Electoral College or the normal functioning of the count. And i think if you take trump seriously as a man who will not concede and it was prepared to breach all norms and boundaries, as long as he can get away with it, then the question is going to be how far the American Public will allow him to go, how far fellow members of his party will allow him to go. If you ask the average republican senator or member of the house or governor, state legislator, whether they would allow the president to steal the election, whether they would allow the president to use his power to keep control of his office, notwithstanding the votes of the people, they would all say no. And they would probably mean it. But if they are committed already, as they are, to a narrative of voter fraud, and if trump says its not that ive been outvoted, its that the count has been poisoned, im not as confident that i know how they will respond. And thats the concern that we have to guard against, and thats why every citizen needs to think about what his or her relationship is to this election, whether its as a voter, as a poll watcher, whether their job has anything to do with securing the election. Not Everyone Needs to be thinking about what they will do if extraconstitutional means are used to try to interfere with the actual results of the election. Well, i got michael, lighten the load attached. Barth, thats as great a presentation as you may become reflected in your piece. So that leads Rachel Kleinfeld, the task of navigating, and she is superbly equipped and able to do. So rachel, let me turn it over to you. Thank you. This is quite the group to follow and of going to play goldilocks here. Im going to fall in between Michael Steele incredible optimism and parts pessimism. Its nice to play goldilocks when you work on democracy and decline of failing from corruption and of violent insu. Usual im in arts shoes of this is good for me. First lets take election is happening. The elections having right now. Theres been 69 votes cast and probably more at this point. Its been open in new mexico for voting for over a week. There are long lines in georgia. Theyre been opening day challenges