Program guide. Now we start the weekend with author and for the twomac hello and welcome everyone. I am with the event staff of politics and prose. Before we do begin we do want to go over a couple of quick items. At any point during this event you can go to the chat section which you can find below to access the link to purchase a copy of the new issue great help i would ask if anyone has any questions they would like to direct to the author you would put them into a separate q a box. That aside i would like to welcome daniel yergin. He is a highly respected authority. The bestselling author of the price. The remaking of the modern world and shattered peace. As vice chairman. He has joined tonight by susan glasser. They write the weekly column. They have served as a top editor of several washington public classifications. They went on to have the politico. She served as the editor in chief of foreignpolicy which won three national awards. And also susan will be appearing herself on thursday october 1. With her new book. That said, we will turn it over to you. It is a delight to be here. Thank you. Dan im just delighted we will learn a lot more. And the kind of expert that you can take his word also. Seriously, this new book. I have to say it was a delight for me to dig into the book which is called the new map. An author who is coming out with the new book in two weeks. You should all buy the book. As loyal viewers you are all planning to do that. It goes without saying. I know dan is eager and happy to sign the book place. I was eager to dig into this book because i think its an indo in a way which is not only turbocharged. In the cycle. They are minute by minute news cycles. It is a useful corrective in the sense that you are offering us so much longerterm thinking about the shifting to your politics in the world. Not only of course the effect of change on the world map and the Energy Transformation that is going on. Actually what that means. Its also a way to escape from the new news cycle. Spending the rest of my time watching the daily car crash that is american politics. When i do start by asking you what is the new map as you see it. Its a very provocative notion. Is it a fixed and stable perspective. How can it change. Think you susan and thank you for doing this. I know you are gearing up for a very important book about the man who ran washington. At a time when washington was very different. That too will provide a very important perspective on our time today. I look forward to watching you at politics and prose in two weeks. I know people watching all across the country. Those of us that live in washington its not only a treasure but its really part of our lives. In unique ways. Its certainly been mine for a couple of decades now. It is one of americas great bookstores. What they have done is a very innovative way to deal with the life of books and ideas. Like susan very easy very pleased to be able to be here tonight. The new map that is about disruption and 70 forms of disruption. Its really tried to be a map through that disruption. In terms of how we live. And disruption was a factor before covid and now the very for doing this this evening it shows the disruption. I tried to give a framework and put a lot of pieces together at a very confused time. I think one of the questions is whether by the new map you mean there would be a rearranging a Power Dynamics in the world. Maybe we would pay less attention to the parts of the maps. When my husband and i moved to moscow to become the correspondent there through the Washington Post a long time ago. One of the most interesting things we did we had lunch with an expert here in town. And he showed us a map that he had have done which did not show europe at the center of things. His was a map with central asia. It changes your perspective on how you analyze all of that political venture. Just this week weve had a ceremony on the south line lawn of the white house. With Foreign Ministers there with president trump. And it raises questions can the United States and move on from this obsession with the middle east. And being trapped in the energy defendants. Is that part of your new map. It is the map of the energy and geopolitics. When i originally started doing this. It came and how the map was changing. That was the dramatic factor became the metaphor for the world. And there is a section called the maps of the middle east. This is a rewriting of the map in the power of relationship. I think the u. S. Is very involved at the end of the same time. It is a message that they may be less interested in the region. Of course its also iran, turkey saudi arabia. They buy for that position. It is a group coming together. I think one other thing that was involved too. There was a drone attack on a big saudi oil facility. I think it says the elements of security and military sense. It is a change in this map. I think more will follow from it. Its not surprising that part of the reason for the rearranging of the power maps is the incredible story here in the United States of the rise of fracking and making the United States with the largest oil and gas producer. It might make it less dependent on the middle east. I think we should talk for a second a more surprising finding in the book. Actually, china which were used to thinking of as very dependent on outside countries because its not able to sustain the on economy through its own oil and gas production. It might be the winner of the next round of energy transportation. China is right now its like the fifth largest in the world. But chinas demand has grown so much that 75 percent of its oil what has become the new phrase. The Energy Transition. Who are the winners and who are the losers. They had two big positions. That enhances the strategic position. The other is that china has really carved out a leadership position about 70 of the world s solar solar paddles come from china. Thats when the cost goes down so dramatically. They dominate the lithium Battery Supply chain. They are in a very strong position there. You see chinas kind of looking to the future. Half of the wind and solar in the world is in china. But theyre also adding three new coal fire plants. Its kind of all of the its neck in a be a. 80 that is a striking number if you think we are moving in that direction. There is another number that blew me away. How much work there still is to be done in Energy Transformation the number that you use in the used in the book was essentially in the 84 is still dependent on fossil fuels. It is the same percentage as it was 30 years ago. We are in a post terrorist climate. The reality is. On the fuels. Thats why the book is about you cant write about Energy Transition without writing about energy. If youre looking at the u. S. And chinese relations. Energy is part of it. This is a here and now that i try to address and make sense of in the new map. 84 percent. Suggest we havent exactly transformed our economy just yet although you do point out the number that are dependent on coals. There has been a rise in wind and solar. Even a little bit of a skeptic when you say have talked about the alternative energy sources. There has clearly been changed. One of the things you see is actually Energy Transition. It takes a long time. The modern wind and solar energy came in the 1970s in my previous book in the quest where these Industries Come from. The wind industry was out of out of meeting of danish wind machines. The Tech Knowledge he is mature. The cost of wind and solar started to go down. A rate in the book about a shale revolution. It is also a solar. Much more competitive than it was before the change. The change from ten years ago. How realistic is it that we are to see a significant move that could the overall number of dependent. I think in the next decade is really that decades the onset that you will see the change. The average heart for 12 years you achieved overnight. Thats actually back to open you dont rebuild the whole face of our economy which we would be talking about Energy Transition even at 30 years we only get way because its so big and so complex. In ways that people dont fully comprehend. The mac i think the background as a historian here. When was it that will was first discovered and put to use in the u. S. And how long until the u. S. Economy was there. Came over the century. Coal, was the first Energy Transition and started in the middle ages would became short supply. The really decisive moment. I went back. And when was the turning point. It was 170909 Metal Workers way. It took two centuries for them to become 50 of the world energy. We have a lot of technology a lot of money. A lot of ingenuity. A lot of political termination they did not had that in 1709. The system is just so massive if you look at boil oil it is used for many more things than just transportation. Hospital operating room everywhere you work and look as plastic. The tools to put a stent inside the heart of a person. It is more than just transportation. Oil is sanitary food as well. On the history point four years ago we heard that coal was going to be a quick reality check on that. Is going south right now. And coal used to be 50 of our electricity and it is way down. Other parts of the world are still using this. Particularly in asia. Its been squeezed out of north america. Lets talk for a minute about the United States. There has been a shale revolution. Its how it came to meet despite the skepticism of just about everybody. How permanent is that. And how seriously do you take the political backlash against tracking. See mike let me take two parts of that. It was a few stubborn individuals that made it happen. Technology marches on. The scale of it is that the United States made the United States the largest producer of oil. It has created a lot of activity in the midwest. Over 200 billion in investment. Its also been quite an impact on our foreign policy. The other side of it as you said there is people that just dont like it in principle. I worked with the Obama Administration when they were looking at the questions around it that if it was properly record it regulated it seems to be largely properly regulated. It has created several million jobs. People dont understand all the other impacts around it. I think people also dont finish the sentence. If you said van fracking. We would still had 280 million cars. What would happen as we would in port a lot more oil at home again. It would be beneficial to us. They would create a gap and we would be back to being much more highly dependent. Just to be clear have you looked at the plan. There has been a lot of discussion so far and now in the city of pennsylvania which has become very dependent on a fracking and the major industry. Both biden and trump have been there in recent days. Why this political focus. Pennsylvania is a very important swing state. It doesnt have very many votes to swing from one weight to the other. They would continue the path with the first one. Donald trump likes to promote the sales of liquid natural gas. I think biden is more complicated. Hes come out with a very ambitious climate plan it would do big effort and a lot of direction. To move in Energy Transition. At the same time as you point out when he was in pennsylvania he said imac and a ban frankly. I think he would look and say this is an important industry and has a lot of jobs involved in it. I think it would be a mixed decision. I dont think he wants to be the president that would preside over the u. S. Imports. He has a more complex position and i think it was kind of reflected in that. It sounds like your view what essentially reflect some of the thinking that you saw in the obama administrated. They were less focus on energy transmission. Its not inappropriate to step on the gas and climate. But at the same time the other industry is there. Your climate plan is not going to change things in 2025 or 2027. It would be there for succeeding decades. You just mentioned russia for the first time. Both of us have a longstanding interest in russia. Dc increasing pressure because of what is happening with the climate and how the world is changing. The sea think republicans will give up on their policy of climate change. I think it is mixed within the republican party. You had republicans including someone you have just written a biography on. He was supporting the carbon tax. No one can say hes not a republican. I think the forest fire is a tragedy and scale. You have seen the two candidates really exchanging very sharp words. Related to coming out to forest fires. Obviously we dont know what the post Trump Republican Party i do think its interesting to see. Its a position that gets left behind. I think one of the very first things that that Biden Administration would do what to be rejoined the paris accord. I think there is a lot of momentum to do that. I think they said they are to do it on the first day although it will be a busy first day. There will be some pandemic related business as well. Russia is the third pillar of this book in a way and its the area in which russia remains a superpower. As actually got an economy that is smaller than italy. Because of the energy powerhouse. It has been able to plan an outside role in the world. Well that continue . I think its interesting. One of the questions. The russian economy is so much smaller than italy. As you say, vladimir has succeeded in restoring the great power around the world. And if biden is president he will have dealt with five u. S. President s. He has a different perspective. He was a great beneficiary of the supercycle commodity boom. When oil prices have collapsed. He just wrote them up. That enables him to really consolidate to the position. And use that space. So russia is still the largest exporter of natural gas. In a major exporter of oil. One of the ways that the world has changed. The frame of reference that Many Americans have is going back really decades the world of oil now is the world that speaks three. The United States, russia and saudi arabia. And we saw that it demonstrated just a few months ago in april when it was the United States that when oil prices collapsed did this incredible thing. They can of demonstrated the change. Its 4050 percent of the russian budget comes from oil and gas is a country that depends on it. That has been one of the sources that you say. For as long as he has been in office and we point out its two decades now when i say the longest serving leader. He could yes surpass him. With a constitutional amendment that was passed. I give them a lot of runway. Interesting enough. It remains highly dependent on Natural Resources even now. There is a constant discussion about the need of reform. The oil and gas revenues are very attractive. It is the largest exporter in the world. I ask actually. About diversifying his economy. It was like in front of 3,000 people. Not a comfortable position to be in. Is it a talk about reform. But it just doesnt happen. And people keep thinking Something Else will happen. What is interesting as you see is you see a different course taken by china. Im not aware of russia making any efforts into that kind of technological revolution that will power the next stage of Energy Transformation. Or any new energy technology. They have a very accomplished mac manic in science. And there are many very successful russian entrepreneurs that happen to be in the United States. What we know is they think theyre good athletes. Cyber intervention. We know that they can do a fast vaccine. Which apparently now is being tested. Its not clear if that its gone through phase three testing. They do have considerable technology. We go from basic science to the startup. No one has that kind of echo system that we have. They dont seem to have make any big bets. They are still interested in Traditional Energy power. Traditional politics you could say that russia and putin in the two decades on the world stage has been a meeting for proponent of the idea that we should return to a more real world league. I have a great section in the book. One of it is in the titanium flag. Its planted in the bottom of the arctic ocean claiming the arctic ocean as a russian ocean i think they said Something Like that. Then its like the 19th century we dont do that anymore. It turns out some people do that. I think one of the things we have seen. He wants to be treated as a great power. And he knows how to play that game. He knows how to take it manage advantage of other peoples weakness. That is interesting. As long as he is a c at the seat at the table a world of Great Power Competition benefits them even though has a condom is somewhat smaller than china or the United States. One of the things i talk about in the book and its very much our relationship with russian. Things keep happening. If hes gotten closer and closer to china and i describe one scene im sorry i kept kept you talking to 4 00 a. M. We never had enough time to talk. One of the things they both talk about a lot is there problems at the United States. It is a supplier of modern technology to russia and russia is a supplier of modern weapons of china. There are worries of the chinese would steal the technology. Primarily it is raw materials. It is based on oil and gas. To that end. He has not hesitated to be somewhat of a bully. Ukraine for example. There is now the very intense pipeline Politics Around his supply of gas to europe through the pipeline. It is extremely controversial in germany. Trump has sought to make that a point of tension. And now with the poisoning