Been living through an unprecedented health, economic and social crisis. A global catastrophe many have predicted and index of which are living around the world, a vaccine which has been hailed threat as the only solution to this crisis to the covid pandemic, and there has been investment in the site and manufacturing a developing such a vaccine rolling about in record time and getting it ideally to everybody around the world. A few of us get together a few months ago building upon in may this year to try to understand this journey to characterize the vaccine for polio, scaling up of such a product. And to reflect on what this means for policymakers and for society all over the world. What are the chances of getting a successful vaccine the next 12 months on how long will it take to manufacture it to scale, how good a job have government, collisions of government, donors and supranational organizations done in designing their vaccine portfolios why does any of this matter . National peers and taxpayers need to know this information. We are aware of cores that it is, national governments, other Major Players have own internal models and analysis. But the stakes are just too high and information shared so far has been so little and how to verify and allow such an independent objective effort with that in the endowment bias, honest and acknowledging uncertainty is really badly needed. Not only to try plan and approve portfolios but also to help build strike him strength among the general public that which a vaccine will never work however successful. That said, vaccine and we will discuss but its something we did not include a modeling axis i support it is. Today were sharing a find with you including the code for a model and our approach and our conclusions. More will become in the next few weeks including usually friendly webbased tool to get lunch deluxe another event dedicated to manufacturing. Hoping to hold in early november. We hope this web tool will be launching next month will allow for either one to come up with their own forecast. Ultimately this is what we talking about come forecast, excellence, informed predictions. We dont have the answers to my colleague anthony will discover our results in a minute but a key take away from is that there is no surprise here for specification is hugely important. My portfolio diversification we are referring to making sure the vaccine candidates however promising they may look now are not all likely to fail for the same reason. And that is hugely important today. To diversify we need an attractive marketplace and the way it is finest in the ways vaccines a place determined to some extent the level of diversification and is that creating marketplace benefits base. We suggest we will probably not get a vaccine or more but it will take time and at least to start with the vaccines will not solve covid force. We must continue to live with the virus in the meantime including maintaining social distancing and other measures while working ever so hard, hard or even on better treatments. In doing so we must not overlook the Collateral Damage in terms of human life and livelihoods in reaching poor countries that are global focus in dealing with covid is causing and which is affecting the poorest amongst us the hardest. We need to keep continue measuring and publicize a giving a voice to those suffering in silence. This work is a collaborative effort. Medics, site discomfort supply chain, engineers, high energy it turns out finding successful covid19 vaccine share a common methodology all come together to think things through and today we will tell you what we found. Thats hardly a conclusion. This is work in progress. We want to hear from you. What do we need input to do that and ensure it remains relevant. Let be set up for you the structure of todays event and introduce the speakers. We have an lineup of speakers and panelists. We have josh joshua schottensto get us started as her opening quito. Hes a former Principal Deputy commissioner of the u. S. Food and drug administration. Following josh, Anthony Mcdonnell has been instrumental in driving this work forward will present our results and Gabriel Jaramillo, covid19 vaccine advisor in columbia, together with former minister of columbia doctor Ivan Gonzales will respond ensure reflections. Then we will go to the Panel Structure which will comprise four of the four people are feeling the analysis of the past few months and ill introduce them to you when we get to that stage but i will just mention we will have anthony, United States, Rebecca Weintraub and Prashant Yadav and i will introduce them to you further when we get to that point. They will make short comments in this of these opportunity for you to ask questions which help with a 45 minutes to do that. So we had this conversation i think critically important to have. So without further ado i will fastforward over to josh who will have ten minutes to share with us his situation with Vaccine Development. Very grateful to have you with us, josh. Over to you. I think you might be muted, josh. Apologists. I was saying thank you, thank you for having me here. Venture for organizing this terrific session and for the work that has been done which is very important. I really appreciate the opportunity to share a few thoughts. I think when this all started the idea that this horrible pandemic, the idea that would be a vaccine to save this was a lifeline. It was a dream that people could have now were getting to the point where we have an opportunity to understand what that really means. It is not a magic solution, its not a magic wand that comes to save as and wake up from this horrible nightmare, although we all wish it were. Thats not the situation. But it is something that can make an enormous amount of difference. It can save so many lives, and the idea of using estate and effects effective vaccine and a set of vaccine in the middle of this pandemic is a very, very important focus for the work that all of us need to do. What i would like to do is talk about how we can get from here to there at a very high level with the most important tasks are this stage, how do we get from where we are now two of vaccine really making an enormous difference and saving many lives around the world. The first thing is we need to complete effectively the Scientific Research in order to know whether its vaccines are safe and effective. We have to know not only what works and what is safe but for whom it works and what populations it works and how well. Those things will only come when the science is a bear. They cant see asserted or a legislated. This will require some patience, expertise to look at the studies and a willingness to recognize when things are not working. And perhaps above all this stage requires integrity, integrity in the studies, integrity in the regulatory reviews, and a strong commitment to science. Obviously there are some worrisome signs that there are some countries jumping ahead hoping, leading hope jump ahead of their understanding of vaccines. The most important thing here is really for the science to become clear. The second stage and obviously work on visa stages may happen all at the same time but this is how i think about the key challenges each stage is an ability to distribute, make available the vaccine and vaccine acceptance. This sounds like to some people a pretty easy step. You got a vaccine, you just give it up people and field of Global Health know how many steps that are, how much implementation and management, how people have to roll up their sleeves and do all kinds of very, very specific, difficult work to be able to take the potential of a vaccine into the reality of vaccination, which actually isnt the thing that saves lives. At this point i think its very important for people to have the resources necessary to do that work, the work of implementing with the chain of custody for vaccines that may need to be kept very cold, the work of reaching different communities as well as the work of engagement, listening to peoples concerns, answering their questions, having trusted messengers talking about vaccination and building trust. You skip over that step and you have a potential of a vaccine but not really the reality of what it can do to save lives. A third critical stage is Global Cooperation. We know for many reasons that Global Cooperation is extraordinarily important. Vaccines that some countries are developing may be very good for certain populations but not others. By pooling the intellectual resources of the planet we will be in the best position to share knowledge across the world and have as many people possible benefit from the correct vaccination. And heres the challenge is to set aside the parochial fears, concerns, competition and get people to work together. We are essentially facing a common enemy for humanity and its a very, very important at every stage from the studies to the review to the distribution and acceptance, that we think of this as a global enterprise. Because no country is safe if there are parts of the world where theres enormous pandemic. I last want to talk about the important, importance of maintaining our strong precautions gets Coronavirus Spread during this whole process. This is very important aspect of the model. I understand you would be presenting but we cant let our guard down while these of the stage is happening, while we were waiting for the research to come in, while we are building at these distribution networks. Because we could have a tremendous problem and loss of life in the interim. For this i think this is a little bit beyond politics because what we are all dealing with, is tremendous fatigue from what we are doing and it was going to take potentially quite a long time, at least in our current mindset where we want a vaccine next week. Quite a long time for us to really get their, but we can save a lot of lives in the interim and we need to be able to maintain that persistence. For that i would like to quote who pointed out that there is the virus doesnt care how tired we are. In that case it was a bacteria, but the virus doesnt care how tired we are, doesnt care how sick we are, having to amass, not going to be groups and concerts and things like that. What he wrote was what natural is the micro. All the rest, health, integrity, purity if you like is a product of the human will, of vigilance that must never falter. Our challenge is to maintain that vigilant as best we can so we can have the minimum loss of life, the ability to do things that are important, economic, education while were putting in place the strong protections through a vaccine. I think our strength here is science. Its understanding, its empathy, and i think this important discussion is very, is going to help illuminate key aspects of the past between here and a vaccine that really helped the world move through this very difficult and unfortunate stage. Thank you very much for a chance to share some of those thoughts. I really look forward to reading about all the Important Research thats going on, and i think everybody who is participating today has a role to play in making sure that we are really using the best of humanity to fight this virus. Thank you, josh. These are inspiring words in a difficult time. I do appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts with us. So i would like to ask anything now to take us through the actual results. We have released our reports, annexes. Weve also released our code and we will be releasing a userfriendly web tool as i mentioned earlier next month so we people can input their own assumptions. In the meantime please do read the report if you have the time and interest. Please do get in touch with us for questions, suggestions. And right now over the next hour or so we will be collecting audience questions through youtube, twitter and email. So please get those questions through. So anthony, i would like to ask you to take us through the results of this work before you move on to a response and a panel discussion. Over to you, anthony. Thank you very much, kalipso. Let me put up my slides. You should all be able to see these now. So the first thing to say is as kalipso has mentioned, this was a very diverse team that brought us together, and i am we really could have done this without a massive collaborative effort, including Robert Van Exan was a vaccine expert, steve lloyd uses infinite knowledge of to help us build this model, laura, julie and rebecca are partners. Kalipso youve already seen. Prashant yadav, Gabriel Jaramillo, david reeder, von thomas. Thank you to all of them and its been a pleasure to work with everyone. What did we do . First of all we built a model using a range of estimates to try to estimate how long it will take to get a covid19 vaccine relisted. We put the vaccines into eight categories come protein, an active virus, attenuated virus, dna, replicating and replicated vaccine and other vaccines. There were 20 vaccines in the portfolio where we couldnt determine their platform so we deleted. We put the vaccines also into five mutual exclusive funding categories. More than 400 million in grants per 100 million some extra funding and then vaccines that are taken by large site from pseudocompanies or by academic institutions. We looked at that stage of development whether phase one, phase two, come face really put all this information can elect this in the mall and come up with this form for how likely each individual vaccine is likely to succeed. Success is approval by its regulator, or vaccine good enough to be approved if it is not being taken forward in a country that a regular his dream stringent by the World Health Organization. Approval for emergency use but which it seems might happen before we get full licensure. We took all of these inputs and put them into simulation. A monte carlo simulation is a simulation where you take input and in each simulation model define success based on randomly in line with the probability that we put in. You could have a model that checks how likely you are to roll two dice and that thats x and it would randomly choose two that was between one and six each time and if both the numbers were six, it would be a monte carlo simulation. It will give you the likelihood that will happen. We build on a simulation that looks at the whole vaccine model in this forward month by month and vaccines randomly succeed or fail in each of the models. Each individual front doesnt tell you an awful lot about vaccine portfolio but if you combine all of the runs together you should be able to get an overall picture of the probability of success. The model is dynamic. What that means is if one vaccine succeeds or fails, the model could use another presume other vaccines would be less likely to succeed. If a leading vaccine shows very good against covid19, we presume in the real world this would increase probability for the expectation that other vaccines will also work well against covid19. And for the model, can also slow down vaccine at pretrial because we told this might happen in the real world and also create limits the number of trials that can happen in the world. Then we have a second model that looks at the steel of time for manufacturing and processing site in other in the time it to adapt or build factories so that they can produce the vaccine that are i model produce a final a Global Manufacturing model and this looks at the global capacity to produce various vaccines. One of the things that really struck me in this project was how little we actually know about Global Manufacturing capacity. But theres been a wonderful job of trying to shed light by come in this area through a survey and were kind enough to share that the information with us which is invaluable. We will create this model and with treat this model and kalipso has told us will make this publicly available so people can put any input they like in the model and it will get different results based on the input. We also interviewed 16 expert ourselves to get the input for this model, and these are people from industry, four people from government, people and agencies that are funding vaccines and people in academia. Through the people are leading vaccine candidates at all of them we are deeply grateful for the time. So what did these experts tell us . They told us they would expect about a 66 chance that a vaccine in would proceed to phase one. It has been a 70 chance of reaching phase two and the vaccine and face two has about mac has about 16 chance of reaching phase three. For phase three we collected input that are different for each one of the vaccine platforms. A platform that are experts like most was protein the one they like least was dna vaccine or actually its not in the scarf but vaccines that these seven criteria were given a 5 chance of of getting to a phase three trial. What we found in general is that they think theres a higher chance of these vaccines going to Preclinical Phase one and phase two then traditional the case because theyre so much president did a vaccine quickly. But doing this more quickly doesnt fundamentally change whether not the vaccine succeeds or fails and so we would expect a higher failure rate in phase three than you would normally expect there are experts also anticipated and roughly three in four chance that if it is submitted for approval having achieved phase three trial would be approved. So what does this mean for the vaccines . We used all of this information as well as the funding criteria and the the state of the builde into workout up probability of success for every vaccine in the portfolio. We collected information which used to collect to provide a timeline to approval for a vaccine for all of you will find is even the most successful vaccines, theres only about 35 chance the vaccines that are model likes most will succeed. Theres only two vaccines with over 30 chance. The average time to succeed even the quickest vaccines are probably six months away from success. But fear not, there are 230 vaccines in the portfolio. While our i model is not huge optimistic about any one vaccine can when you put all of the vaccines to get the model becomes incredibly optimistic that some of the vaccines will succeed. This is a timeline for when we might see the first vaccine approved according to our model. Theres a very small chance the model thinks a a vaccine