terry to roll out the new book which rolled up today. her book titled "becoming kim jong un" a former cia officers insights into north korea's enigmatic young dictator could not be more timely. the book provides a masterful insight into who kim jong-un is, what makes him tick, and what keeps them up at night. the book is already earned wide praise from among the leading thinkers and for the policy practitioners dita with north korea. we're fortunate that jung and sue will spend the next hour with us breaking that when you don't about how north korea operates, who kim jong-un is, and what is going on in north korea these days. they bring a wealth of knowledge to this conversation. they both are former intelligence analysts who represent the very best of their previous profession. they each were tremendous colleagues while in government and their tremendous friends to me now. in addition to being deeply informed, kind, and deadly sport, they also a ton of fun. so before i turn it over to jung and sue i do want to note that we have only collected many questions from the members of the audience and welcome you to send more. you can do so i sent an e-mail to events at brookings.edu or via twitter at hashtag becoming kim. with that it is my delight to turn over to sue and jung. >> i want to store so it came to an earthquake that i want to cycle what it is like to cover a country like north korea and a person like kim jong-un as an analyst. so your book begins with your talk about analyzing north korea, your job as analyst with the cia. making the hard call and as you know i start the cia two days before 9/11 and i covered kim jong-il, and your cia years covered kim jong-un on and between us from kim jong-un to kim jong-il there are two decades of covering north korea but we both agreed north korea indeed is the hardest target country. could you talk about your job, how you analyze vast array of information, this information, connecting the dots, like connecting pieces of puzzle here different times, different places, so when a sword. can we start with that? >> thank you to ryan for that amazing introduction come for this kind words and to see you i can never get tired of your telling people about our first day. this is a rated pg conversation so she left out a lot, in that opening. sue, thank you for doing this. i'm so glad were able to do this. i think what's so interesting about how our paths crossed is that you covered the father and i covered the site and our paths cross. i think even on the cia website, the recruiter website you could see things like -- because we help us connect the dots. this is like a puzzle we have different puzzles come in at different times from different periods, from different places and we have to figure that out. but i think in the north korea issue, and we see this now all of this fragment information to me about whether kim jong-un is alive or ill or whatever the case may be, is that because a north korea practices on operation security and the information security, it makes north korea the hardest of the hard targets. as you know this is something that always rang true throughout the building at langley. north korea doesn't want the regime doesn't want information to get out to the outside or within, or within north korea itself. and because of that we only a small circle of advisers, maybe a handful who might know where a what kim is doing at any given moment. i think that is designed to make sure no one gets any crazy ideas about starting protest are getting together or colluding against the regime. it's also make sure that as people an outside come the united states, south korea, china all sorts kept in the dark about the regime. given all that i think a lot of -- [inaudible] given all that their operations, operation security, their tight hold on information makes a really difficult to actually -- [inaudible] >> in your book you talk about research. to reference his book on how intelligent analysts need to work through the weaknesses and biases and thinking that we need to continually test and review our key assumptions. i found that to be very true. i think that's one of those awful things about your book, about for checking our -- >> you know this book. we probably had five or six different copies given to us that any given point and so everybody, if you walk into any cia analyst office, former or in the langley, you'll see books on the bookshelf with over to the site are somewhere, but it reminds me, one of the things about being a north korea follower is that north korea analyst is it's extremely frustrating, right? you have to live with all of the ambiguity and provide answers when there are no answers. it's a lot of mental and also emotional gymnastics to try to get at the target. the stakes are high, right? there's a reason north korea is a target, a hard target, and the reason we study north korea so much is because they have nuclear weapons. and it is position in the middle of the most vibrant, economically vibrant part of the world in asia. it sits next to china-south korea. that's also where the u.s. troops are present in south korea, and in japan. so given all of those factors, the fact we don't have very much absolute insight into the leadership intention, that makes it a very dangerous place and it really requires a lot of checking of the assumption, otherwise which is following a a different, a wrong path. >> one more question on cia and we will move on to north korea. what you think is the biggest misperception people have about the agency and what is it like not being in the government anymore? what do you miss and not miss? is a weird not having top secret sources? >> yes. so when i arrived at brookings in september of 2017 after almost nine years in the agency, i remember sitting at my desk and looking at my one screen, remember when with multiple screens? >> yes. >> just look at my one small screen and feeling i was deaf dumb and blind. what do people do for information? what are the listening to? what are they seeing? talking to them? what is a government saying? that was a really difficult -- you to find other sources of information. i think you found that, to, it was difficult to acclimate to new information environment. what did you think when you left? >> no, no, like what do i not know? i mean, you become an information obsessed. so now you don't have it so that's like him to go through this with a drawl, right? so moving on to jim, we'll get the status of health and all that later but in your book you mention there's a tendency by analysts and scholars and media to portray kim jong-un as a cartoon figure, right? a ten-foot tall baby, and there's a tendency to simultaneously underestimate overestimate his capabilities. you say with this capability, with his intentions come questioning his rationality and, of course, kim jong-un is not the only one who was caricatured. i remember when i was coming kim jong-il we similarly caricatured kim jong-il. he was portrayed as a cartoon figure, making fun of issues and obsession with films and womanizing insulin. kim america, remember? could you talk to us about that kim jong-un being portrayed as this cartoon figure and the consequences of implications of doing that? >> it easy to caricature the kim regime. and you know this come you seen this all your life. i think it's because of that absence of deep knowledge about north korea. the two cams are very easy to caricature because of the way -- and that's one of the things that i wanted to do with this book is fight a fuller picture. it depends on where your gaze is. i think this is where richards comments about mirror imaging, that you can't be, you can't be projecting your own assumption are your own belief, and what i would do in that situation -- and so i think the whole moniker, that goes to how can they do this? why would they do this? don't they know we would hit them and destroy the west would destroy them? it does make any when you look from the north korea or the kim perspective it's not crazy that something i try to explain, like what are the drivers of all of his actions? what is his historical baggage? what using mindful of the? what does he aspire to and how does that evidence or manifest in his actions? what might be crazy and unpredictable and irrational to us is actually written in russian italy on the part of ki kim. >> so inviting your book what most surprise you that kim jong-un? has your view of them change over the years since he took over? has he exceeded your expectations? >> 2018 was really jarring. remember that when kim did this -- [inaudible] and everyone seemed we about how he is different. yes, he is different from his father and his grandfather. he's different. he's doing a pivot at the olympics and engaging with south korea and the united states after years of holding his neighbors at bay, that he was different. he studied in the west and yes a wife and he wants to be more modern and so we have to grab this opportunity. that was disconcerting and again they goes back how deeply uncomfortable it is a being an analyst of north korea, is that made me challenge -- [inaudible] what are we seeing in with the that mean and what is really driving the outreach? i remember we were at a conference, sue, and there was a really blustery, frightening statement after the pivot, and all of us were like yeah, that's the north korea that we know. the issuing of threats and telling as that they're going to use their weapons, all that. i tried to get in the book to show that he still learning from us. he's still growing. he still adapting, and that we have to be ready and be responsible to adjust our analyses based on the situation. >> do you have a fun fact that people don't know about in, most people don't know about him? like, for example, kim jong-il, i know his favorite food of all time was sushi, but not only sushi, fatty tuna. [laughing] >> i think as i was writing -- you know sometimes when you're right, the more you feel like you're learning from the writing process? what i felt was with interesting is the role of women in north korea and the use of his wife. so i thought that was, that was what was really -- this is different because kim jong-il did not have his wife in the public. they tried to keep the women in the background as much as possible. but i thought that was, there are many reasons why he would bring his wife forward. one was he was young and his father told him to get married just before he was, you know, in 2009, told, told him to get married because, and although this isn't explicit, because it would make him into a man, right? and in korean culture you are not a man until you get married and have your own family. so that gave him that gravitas of being this married, stable men. i know we will be talking about what's happening now, but i also think that the reason his wife -- [inaudible] or that he introduced his wife at all is he wanted to be sure that this was -- next in line. kim jong-il had a ton of women, right? kim jong-un come we don't know if he's messing around and he wants to add this image of a family centered man so i think i suspect he's thinking ahead in terms of secession. there should be no jockeying in the background of which line of the family is going to be the next in line. .. and you know, her role with north korea, kim teasing the world with the promise of a more peaceful time as it normalizes north korea's nuclear power, as a husband, a father and legitimate will with people like president moon, president xi, you write in your book i have a code here, the curated public appearances provide the region with a softer side with good humor to match the deprivation endured by the people and the possibility that hints -- but yeah, that was definitely illuminating. that -- everybody is talking about an official succeeding of something were to happen. thoughts of his sister. >> he is clear he doesn't trump anybody else. this year the mother and the father. kim went through the last few years of pruning the family tree marginalizing society. it is my guess the sister is in a position for kim jong un's children. there is a lot of speculation, these are real questions, and north korea has to do that. biological questions. and this is a reminder. >> what is your best estimate of what is going on with north korea? we have so many conflicting reports but what is your take? maybe while we wait for someone to get back on, we are having technical difficulties, talk a little bit about what is going on, just to talk a little bit about my sense of what is going on, no confirmed reporting, no one knows what is happening with kim, there are cultural data points since april 11th kim jong un has not been seen and he has been out of public view in the past it is unusual he missed two very important events including april 15th's celebration of his grandfather's birthday in the army day celebration on saturday. missing this april 15th celebration is significant, because i don't think he has ever missed that event. that is noteworthy. one other interesting fact, the north koreans are very quiet about this. you would think they monitor the news coming from the world, they are not doing that. your best estimate, and we don't know what is happening, it is curious things are unusual. >> something is off but we won't know what is. the questions remain about what the implications are of his absence. the information penetration, so rumors are going to get around, all this chatting is going on in the chinese chat rooms. all this information and all those rumors are going to get out and it would benefit and advantage to show up sooner rather than later. >> you think kim jong-il is likely to succeed kim jong un if something were to happen? >> he was given all of what the regime has to elevate the family line, and that propaganda. and can be hard to have a kim family member. a full family member at the house. >> to his brother's policies. >> look at history, he got rid of 5 to 7 people helping him at the funeral procession is marginalized the other time, and not strangers to, they have to use it. and to the government. >> and is it stable. >> the elite, to collaborate, to her buddy on the west coast and the east coast. i understand i understand kim's purchase of the past two years. and no one's network, or pardon something, and i would see purchase, but we have to be careful about thinking of the regime, it is gradual, and it is along the lines, all the things happening so far. the north koreans are pretty clear north korea cannot trust anybody except for kim, or what the past few years have shown is the us is not a reliable partner. south korea is not a reliable partner and something i tease out, allies are not they turn their back on you. >> let's talk about north korean policy before the question. if he is not incapacitated it is alive and well. with can he expect from kim in the future, he prefers to deal with trump and president biden. >> next step this year or the coming years. >> he came into the scene in 2011-2012, north koreans didn't have to tighten their belts anymore. that was his father's line, turning to his policy, the dual track policy and economic prosperity. what is interesting, there looks to be some belt tightening but a long struggle with the united states and things will be hard and people have to work harder, longer, faster, and it seems that kim has closed the door, texas a little bit open, engaging with the us. i don't know if he would make any big moves now in the us election, the deal at this point given who knows what after the election and the deal would not be implemented. i think what i'm going to see the test, this is something that they do to improve their capabilities. we will see ramped up cyber activities and a panel of experts and private research companies that have documented this very well. a low-cost way of generating revenue for the chain. that is what we are going to see to try to maintain his weapon. and and muddle through, >> there are complications. i don't think it is a major nuclear test but i do think there is going to be - needs to show that he is strong, not a weak person. all the missile tests gearing up to that. does he prefer to deal with donald trump second term or president biden? >> things look pretty good for kim in terms of foreign relations. he has a us president praised him for his leadership and ignored human rights violations, we don't have human rights envoy in north korea. donald trump and the trump administration turned a blind eye toward shorter range ballistic missile tests and other provocative action. the us south korea relationship is not great, the burden sharing is outstanding and thousands of korean workers have been furloughed. things with us china are not great, they are trading barbs who started corona and who's doing a worse job. south korea and japan are fighting, there's a trade dispute, a full-scale conflict that turned into the security and economic realm. based on the disarray in the region and lack of us leadership at the highest level in the region and the fact that kim has had a free reign in terms of weapons testing, i think if there was more of this environment, these are net positive for kim. >> host: want to be our policy, you write that is ultimately not a businessman and in donald trump absence of the word is not, presumably the north koreans too, this is not what they are looking for and donald trump's mirror imaging led to policymaking that did not comport with reality so is unlikely to give up nuclear weapons to get missile franchising, what is the right approach. what would you recommend for donald trump's second term or president biden? what should we be doing? >> i don't put that up front in the book too. i let story develop and looking at some of the episodes in various parts of his personality, various parts of his life, various parts of north korea's history and build to that toward policy recommendations that was designed to show that kim is not just about security guarantees, he requires a hostile outside world to try to justify his rain and the problem with donald trump's approach, the beachfront condominiums and having great real estate is kim does not want american entrepreneurs running around in his country setting up mcdonald's franchises. he does not want people building railroads or fixing their infrastructure for him because he doesn't want non-north koreans are uncontrollable inside the country inspecting, with crazy ideas about market economies and democracy and good governance so he doesn't want that. is not a subcontractor that hotel you're from new york would get used to working with but his drivers are different. 's incentives are different and we have to recognize that. i also think we do a great disservice to our policies and the north korean people. i know your strong advocate of this too, the idea that we don't see people as entity or actors themselves and i think in a lot of scholars and activists and think tanks people are working on this, the problem with human rights is it is not achieved us government priority, it is always on the lowest priorities, issues like that are seen usually a secondary or tertiary issues if at all and it is clear that this administration does not see human rights issues in north korea as a priority but we need to ramp up information penetration, work with technology companies and activists to get more information in north korea. >> donald trump did begin when his term began, talking about north korean human rights abuses, a north korean defector, and all of the sudden it changed when he turned toward this maximum pressure peace offense event diplomacy. completely agree with you on this information penetration. such a key to get information into north korea to help the people to break free from this information blockade. we have a few minutes before we returned to the audience. i will ask one last question. if kim is alive and well what would you say to him, what would you ask. >> this was a surprise question? >> free people. what should he do, what would you say, if you spent some quality time with him. >> what i would like to ask is what is the legacy you want to leave behind, and what is the legacy you want to leave behind and most people prefer that he said i want to peaceful north korea where everybody is prosperous. when he was younger maybe he had these thoughts but i think, i wonder how his ideals or his goals in 2012-2020, what has he learned? how optimistic was he in 2012 versus 2020 given he hasn't had sanctions removal, hasn't had very much success on that front, that is what i would like -- something i think would be really interesting to find out from him. >> make a case to do better for his people. what if he did die or pass, if this is this, what is his legacy? >> it is the worst of what north korea has to offer in that the alleged inequality of communism or socialism is gone, people can rely on the state for daily necessities. it is almost harmsian, you eat what you kill in north korea and i think about this when i think about covid-19, there's no way there 0 infections. kim jong un is building a massive pyongyang general hospital in anticipation of having to treat the elites, but the vast majority of the 25 million people in north korea who are without safe water, they are scrounging around for food and they have to rely on smuggling, human trafficking like slavery to try to scrape by, there are millions of stories in north korea in terms of stories which are so poignant, versus all the burden and repressive nests of a particular regime, there is a woman who died with her child, there are north korean defectors who died of starvation, and i wish we could offer an alternative vision. the most prominent defectors, his winning the national assembly with that sense of alternative vision, we are good at talking about lots of things. we've been talking about nuclear weapons, nonproliferation, how to and coercive diplomacy, we do a pretty bad job of showing north korea what could be possible and we do have to ramp up the information penetration and focusing on how to get different ideas into north korea. >> i can't agree with you more and i was happy to see -- i do think it sends the right message to potential defectors. there are alternate paths to them. a life is possible in south korea. we are going to get some questions from the audience. the first question we have a foreign affairs panelist on federal government. the message is for the us government so this person asks to what extent do you think his appetite for risk has grown over time, you talk about high risk tolerance in your book. has his appetite grown for risk? >> one of the premises of the book is kim is watching us as much as we are watching him and he learns from what we are doing and what we are not doing and there were many many red lines, alleged redlines he has crossed and you've seen this from the kim jong-il period, from one nuclear weapon to two to six to eight and based on what he has done. he's been very aggressive in pressing the accelerator on nuclear weapons programs in conventional training etc. but other than sanctions which the air was let out with the summit, he is still standing. he did three icbm tests in 2017. that long ago was a redlined that north korea would be infighting trouble if they did that. did a massive nuclear test as well, he threatened, during his reign he threatened south korea, he has done night training for commando raids, he has had mark displays of the south korean presidential. house so they could do training on how to read it. he has done some pretty brazen things, but the punishment has been pretty subdued. they were sanctions, the maximum pressure campaign was a good policy but all of that went away when donald trump said that i don't believe in maximum pressure and dismissing north korea's human rights violations. he has become bitter, batter and boulder, because he has perceived a lack of political will to respond to him or punish. sanctions are hard to implement. you have to have china on your side. you have to be sure all our partners across the globe have the capacity to find illicit activity taking place in their country. so i think he has a bigger acceptance for appropriate but i also wonder, this is something i will be watching for how much of the economic issues came back. what i worry about is his aggressiveness. it is not being chased and being self reflective about what he needs to do, but sensing weakness, he might go all in on the other sector which is the nuclear weapons program and military readiness. >> the economic situation is even more uncertain with what they have done to prevent coronavirus, they've taken some draconian measures, the secondary effect of that. the implications for the economy. major surgery and recovered, i wonder if that would make them more risky in the future in some of these actions or what? you must have psychological impacts, right? >> he has to show strength otherwise how do you keep the week in line, how do you keep the military in line which is strange to say for somebody who is overweight and has these issues. it is striking to me how the inconsistency or cognitive dissonance of kim jong un with his protruding belly smoking a cigarette and ordering the north korean navy to strip down and swim in the ocean from an impromptu drill. he has to show strength and perception of strength is in doing these launches. >> a fellow from the institute for defense analysis asks, north korea senior military leaders feared kim jong-il but did not respect him. what is their view of kim jong un? >> one of the regions this regime survives, one of the pieces of stability, we know they supported -- at least loyalty. support to kim jong-il. what do you think of these views of kim jong un? how much do they support him? >> i am not sure that is exactly the best question. are they willing -- they are willing to support him in the way they support their livestock and that is something to be mindful of. as odious as covid-19 is in his treatment of his people there are interests that are tied to him and the way he has demoted or shuffled, that also means that they have a stake in the north korean economy as it is, the military and authority are involved in moneymaking operations, and the closer you are to the regime the more money, the more opportunities you can have so you have to think of it in terms of not loyalty to chloroquine himself but what he represents, the stability and privilege. >> okay. we have more questions. someone was asking how are you handling a big day, you were hoping for a book tour. how are you handling that, how does that, a follow-up question, this is your first book, what was the best part of writing this book? >> i was nervous obviously about the book tour and not being able to show people what i had done and what i had not produced but there is always a silver lining in having this webinar was different from brookings, 150-200 people, but with this we can reach hundreds of people who can share in our conversation and hear about north korea given what is going on in the news. the worst part was writing late at night. it was having my brookings day job, putting kids to bed after dinner and started work at 9:00 pm and working until 3:00 pm and doing that for a year and i still have that schedule where i get up at 7. >> you have a heavy blanket. >> i have the gravity blanket and it is not helping. >> okay. a question from washington dc, from new providence new jersey, this is from washington dc, traveling to china, is there a china advisor? >> one of the first things he did his leader consolidating power was he killed his uncle by marriage in 2013. one of the criticisms in the indictment was he had too many contacts with the chinese and is more subservient to the chinese and working with the chinese, that is something you want to avoid when you are an official in north korea having too much contacts. makes them highly suspicious. there were rumors during the grooming process that he went with his father to china but the chinese government was open about this, the chinese government, beijing was the first to say congratulations, kim jong un, on taking over. that was -- you had beijing at that point, very cautious and sensitive to making sure they had their contact, that they didn't offend kim jong un. this is the tier any of the week as one collar said that even though you have this relatively weak country, you have people, there's a sense that you need to have access and some sort of relations with him. >> one question was has it become easier to analyze north korea from the time of kim jong-il to kim jong un, speaking cameras into north korea and better technology? >> i think there's a lot of information in terms of how much because of technology and this is the result of activist work and defector organizations like the national endowment for democracy and the state department. there is a lot of information, some of the things we hear about the regime is you get a flavor of some of the things, give us flavor or snapshot of what is going on in a particular part of the region. there's a lot of complaining and this is great information out of north korea but what we see is there's a lot of anxiety, isolated criticism of the regime but the problem is these criticisms are not connected. the use our isolated incidents of critiquing the regime, not the harbinger of the people rising up. >> we have time for one last question from the audience. information from the outside world is leaking into north korea over the years, what are your thoughts why there has not yet been apprising from his people, or inside assassinations? >> why hasn't there been apprising? the people are not connected in that way that would spur collective action and collective action, protests, when the arab spring happened, there was a sense that this was the start of a new era when people rising up as a result of technology but what we have seen in technology and north korea is they are not connected to each other and these are totally monitored and people are still very careful what they say so the horizontal connections that would need to be necessary for any kind of protests you are not going to see and there is, this is the irony of all of this, that i think the north korean people are so resilient they are able to adapt, so many decades of living under the kim family, they have lived through the famine. they lived through weather events, they lived through a period of want and they are living through this regime and the difference now is they are making money and they are making lots of it. and you are not going to see massive uprisings as a result of the fact that there are people earning money and this one point, kim is trying to encourage that, to encourage the you too can make it big by having pyongyang become the center of cosmopolitanism in modern luxury and it is a way of trying to keep those desires contained and directed inward toward your self-improvement versus out word and overthrowing the regime and if the regime can keep up to date with people's expirations and hopes, you will have the status quo. >> i think our time has come to a end, thank you. do you have any final comments? >> just to thank you for everything and to brookings and ballantyne and all of you in the audience who joined us today. i'm really grateful and proud of this book and i hope you like it as much as i enjoyed writing it. >> i want to thank everyone for joining and kudos for the most insightful book on the subject. it is very timely and of great importance to us national security, writing a highly informed substantive, objective analysis of one of the least known leaders in the world is not an easy task and i have to tell you this book is highly readable in terms of history, global narrative on north korea. i promise it will resonate with everyone, whether you are live in north korea or you know nothing about north korea i found it very enlightening because very dispassionate in a way but very thoughtful, insightful analysis and what i really love about the book is she goes into explanation of why and how she came to her assessment and evaluation. her analysis of kim jong un is interesting and very revelatory. so for example, talking about execution and what transpired, she doesn't just talk about it but elaborates on what happened the event says about kim jong un. thank you for writing this book, thank you all for joining us today. now go out and get this book and enjoyed reading it. >> thank you. >> today sees the networks live coverage of the first manned space mission to lunch since 2011 from us soil, the space x crew dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts from kennedy space center in florida, watch live at 12:15 p.m. eastern on c-span2. online, c-span.org or listen live on the free c-span radio apps. >> in his new book talking to strangers, author malcolm gladwell details why he thinks people making accurate judgments about people they don't know. >> step out of the car. >> you're going to drag me out of my own car. >> she is imprisoned for resisting arrest and 3 days later she hangs herself and her cell, a tragic and unexpected results, but the whole, that exchange we saw which by the way goes on and on and on, we only saw a small snippet of weonlysawasmallsnippetofit was the kind of, when i first saw that online that is when i realized what i wanted to write about because if you break that exchange down moment by moment, you see multiple failures of understanding, empathy, 1 million things. >> sunday night at 8:00 eastern on c-span's q&a. >> having lived through loss of confidence in our institutions, a wave of cynicism that is left is unable to trust we we are told by anyone who calls themselves an expert is -- it becomes difficult for us to rise to a challenge like this. our first reaction is to say they are lying to us, they are only in it for themselves and a lot of national institutions have got to take on the challenge of persuading people again that they exist for us, that they are here for the country. >> sunday june 7th at noon eastern on "in depth," a live conversation with father and american enterprise institute scholar live in. 's most recent book is a time to build. other titles include a great debate, the fractured republic, join the conversation with your phone calls, tweets, texts and facebook messages, watch "in depth" on booktv on c-span2. >> c-span has unfiltered coverage of congress, the white house, the supreme court and public policy events from the presidential primary, to the impeachment process and now the federal response to the coronavirus. you can watch c-span's public affairs programming on television, online, or listen on our free radio apps and be part of the national conversation through c-span's daily washington journal program or through our social media feed. c-span created by america's cable television companies as a public service and brought tuesday by your television provider. >> joining us now from merritt island, florida, the kennedy space, stephen clark, editor of spaceflight now.com. good morning, mister clark. >> thanks for having me.

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