Populism in the uk and us and thfure of progressive politics at George Washington university. Welcome to this conversation on will the centerleft rise to the challenge along with the Tony Blair Institute we are proud to present today as speech by in a conversation of the quite honorable tony blair former Prime Minister of Great Britain on this topic and what the progressives need to do to rise to it. Several hundred that was best given the Coronavirus Spread to cancel the Public Meeting so we are Live Streaming today thank you for joining us by live stream and also to cspan and the audience to todays conversation. This is obviously the subject of a state of emergency has been declared in washington and we want to do our part to slow down the spread of this virus but also carry on with business as usual is much as we can. Welcome to everybody on a personal note i want to say how pleased i am to see tony blair after being reunited after a long hiatus the Progressive Policy Institute worked closely with president clinton and Prime Minister blair to organize the dialogue that defined the main currents of western politics in the late 19 nineties. And how things have changed over the last decade as the populist revolt against political establishments all around the democratic world some of the first tremors reached from Great Britain in 2016 with the unexpected vote of brexit and of course we in the United States felt these tremors seismically when donald trump later took over the Republican Party and won the presidency and in both cases what was in common is working class voters moved to the right and began to scramble the Political Alliance with centerleft and centerright parties as they competed for power then last december we saw another election in britain in which the fraction of Jeremy Corbin workers to help fuel Boris Johnson is a huge victory there. So seeing populism or ethnic nationalism squeezes out space for the centerright parties moving the debate forward and this has coincided with a steep decline in public support for parties all over the world particularly in europe. Just watching from afar we see the story of old demons from what is a foot in europe and italy and britain and france and elsewhere. But has triggered a crisis of confidence the old establishments have been unable to deliver in a fundamental way to their public and this is the reaction we have seen from that. It is essential the parties of the Progressive Center are much more compelling to populism to be forwardlooking and optimistic those are for great adjectives to describe the man tony blair may 1997 tony blair led the labour party out of an 18 year political exile to the greatest victory ever. Even before that he had taken control of the party as leader and updated the labour party agenda moving from a socialist beginning to more modern creed to help the party reach beyond the workingclass to the aspiring middleclass. I think tony blair and his helpers were inspired with the clinton democrats are doing in the United States at the same time. As Prime Minister presented a strong Economic Growth performed Public Services reduce poverty default power to scotland and wales helping to bring peace to northern ireland. Also launched an unprecedented International Dialogue among centerleft parties and heads of state as a witness no one made the case for radically pragmatic progressivism. There was a rough patch in internal rightfully rivalries within his party to contend with a fractious Political Press they seem to act as if they are the Opposition Party and his support for the very unpopular iraq war. Winning three Straight National elections, serving ten year years, the longest of any labor leader tenure in history. After leaving office 2007 became special envoy in the middle east through 2015 and founded the Tony Blair Institute the partner in todays event. This is a great place for analytical and scholarly work that i think is also implicated. And also think for all to made this day possible so now the staying power of populism with the Reelection Campaign of donald trump i cannot think of a better time to hear tony blairs thoughts tell the centerleft could restore culture of winning. So please come out and lets hear from you. Thank you. Thank you it is good to see you again. Society has a strange way to do this speech but i hope everyone understands the reasons for that in the strange and troubling on troubling times so we have to do it in this way but that reminds me of the very First Political speech i ever had to give almost 40 years ago now as a young aspiring politician i went to address the meeting that held 1500 people and only six people turned up and i was in the middle of a speech i remember leaving the hall and thinking my political career was over before it had begun so dont fall asleep please. So each day i wrestle with the question with the progressive sector if its a demand problem or a supply problem if we are offering something the voters dont want or what they do want. To they want the Progressive Center or not are we offering it or not in my conclusion is we have a supply problem living in authoritarian populism the evidence seems clear the anger over globalization and trade and discontent, demonizing opponent opponents, making sure they have liberal sensibilities the uk government now with a conservative majority brazil in the philippines and the list goes on. There is something around the origins of the populism the financial crisis, immigration communities and people feeling left behind by globalization and peoples concerns and the revolutionary phenomenon of social media. Politics is on the rise media is fragmented societies are splitting into two worlds we frankly dont much like each other so this is well understood in western liberal politics but there is the underlying assumption on the left that the electorate is driven by this satisfaction to desert the rational in favor of the year rational and this is complacent and profoundly lacking in selfcriticism. The challenge for democracy in my view is the feeling that in the face of problems people are addressing the prevailing powers will procrastinate. People feel the world is changing without their consent and beyond their control and they want someone to fix it. The populace are answering that call. People want things to move, to change and they are in endless contemplation its necessary to defend in order to deliver they want to see the job done. And as the opponents are shouting and reveling the more that appears for them to be validated. In response the left is in the reincarnation of the old left and they share the basic desire of change and say the system is rigged and they feel the moment they spent a lifetime waiting for has finally arrived. They both stood by a young generation of radicals with the agenda of the believe can align with that old agenda the second count of those who are appalled at the revival of the old left and preach moderation but are derided in this area demanding radical change. They sound like the acoustic version better suited in a club than in a stadium. So the first solution offers too much the other is too little so the labour party 120th birthday i spoke of the four rules of impotence of which progressive politics risks imprisoning itself in the first is the financial crash lessons that the public turned sharply left on Economic Policy and against the markets as a result. In fact people understood completely between the failure of the Financial Markets and an entire system of private enterprise they are anti greed but not anti wealth. The second was accepting the failures of policy post 9 11 and the high cost of military engagement that the west was to blame for the extremism. People never believe that. And the third is to have that culture were of identity which the Progressive Side is certain to lose. Fourth, what works for the right will also work for us to match their populism with our own the British Labour party situated itself within these walls december 2019 in our election and suffered the worst election defeat in our history. Around the western world today and mediumsize countries with populations over 20 million progressive policies everywhere is on the defensive not one traditional left or centerleft is in majority power. And traditional left parties have written between moderates and left and neither are winning. In my view, to beat populism have to be competent and strategically focused and redefined the progressive challenge for the modern world and what being radical means. Competence in defense and offense and to recognize the grievances are real and national if immigration is a properly controlled to showing you will control it is the only way to get permission to advocate it. To threaten security way of life is justified the primary duty of government is to keep people safe. Not to be despised or celebrated but that culture that the elements of universities and on campus the people with which they disagree with no reasonable definition could that be outside the bounds of legitimacy. As they elect leaders they feel would be intimidated by such behavior and to say its a tiny minority very often i hear progressive politicians speak to the narrow activist audience to the cheers that are lost to the majority of people so these are basic points of culture which if youre not touching your not listening. So to say what gets the support and here is the challenge that is economic the sense of breach and the generational promise the next generation will do better than this one that led to the dissolution of today and pessimism of tomorrow hence the desire of radical change but dont underestimate the publics intelligence they want change that is practical. Those leading tough lives are weary of those promising resolutions. Start with the real world and analyze without preconception and it is clear whatever government is in power will be dealing with the 21st Century Technology revolution every bit is Game Changing as the 19th century industrial revolution. Policymakers and changemakers are in two different worlds. Here is the 21st century task to Harness Technology in a matter that promotes social justice and opportunity. That is the challenge of radical Politics Today to require mobilization of government federal and local individuals need to be empowered to succeed and they cant do that on their own. And its probably understood it is no longer a single issue it is pervasive and universal and life choices and a whole political philosophy. For the renaissance of progressive politics but only if allied to realistic policy. Green new deals on both sides of the atlantic to join forces with far less economics with those that they claim to champion. And from the german green experience which takes huge electoral strides because it is perceived as advocating for radical change working with private enterprise. The doubling of africas population and india taking its rightful place that there is no answer to Climate Change other than finding ways of consuming sustainably which in turn means deceleration of science and technology so that should be our ambition and done practically in the way that maximizes unity in our countrys. In conclusion, those that want to make the case for radical change, not by setting people against each other but by sharing the shared purpose and common endeavor. The more palatable the change. A leftist populism is one principle and selfdestructive politically. We went from the Progressive Side addressing the future the language of reason so there is an irony in the progressive predicament. Progressive values are not the problem. They are popular. We too often are the problem. Our outrage inhibits our though thought, our attachment to ideological purity and understanding and selfdiscipline is in perpetual coalition for selfindulgence. So my judgment is very clear we will defeat the populism when we weave a new narrative about the future by understanding the future and embracing it. The challenge therefore is ultimately whether of our character and our will. Thank you. Thank you very much. We are seated at a distance from each other. I suspect any american listening to you will find a lot of residents what has happened in the primary on the democratic side we have had a battle over pragmatic progressivism that aspires to the higher moral standard. We are not through with that battle but it strikes home and it is a challenge for us as we in the United States as democrats choose our champion to go up against donald trump in november but before we get deeper into those political issues that you raised in your very lucid descriptions of what we should be thinking about, let me ask a question about the coronavirus issue that is overshadowing Everything Else here and i suspect almost everywhere now. It is relevant to this discussion because if nothing else, this virus is a huge test of government efficacy of capacity can government deliver better than they have done . You have competition with the chinese where the disease originated now bragging about their efficacy they recently put out a statement lauding themselves the strongest governance capacity in human history. So they have for mueller called authoritarian capitalism that can solve problems like this better. President trump last night spoke to this and called for measures including a travel ban, but what advantages bring to this challenge to make people safe against this virus . In an open and free societ society, i wouldnt accept that the chinese are superior but they are able and have done an extraordinary job to mobilize their country its not clear exactly fit will defeat the disease or slow it down. But we can do those things to if we need to. And my view very simply with the coronavirus we are learning a lot of lessons of global coordination in the short term to follow that scientific advice and to take people further through the explanation of what you are trying to achieve which is essentially the slowing down of the path so the Health System can deal with it and get to the point eventually we can get a vaccine. It is a very tough crisis and that calibration is very difficult for the leaders is the damage he will do to your economy and the Health Care System. Are we overreaching . I will never accept the authoritarian society is better at dealing with the problems fundamentally. I do think we have to recognize this efficacy question is a challenge there are reasons why it is interesting to me a big part of President Trump is the idea that you could assume if Mike Bloomberg could decide his campaign you could assume the slogan he came out with was from Indepth ResearchSomething Like mike get it done. And Boris Johnson in december 2019 british general election was get brexit done getting the job done is what people want to see. The risk you have at the moment for the Progressive Side is you have people who are radical but operating on the wrong sort of radicalism and its not enough simply to be a moderate version of that. You have to renew the progressive challenge and do that fundamentally other some moderates would do better than extremes. So thats why i think if joe biden is your nominee i think he would completely understand that to put a lot of effort into building a good solid team to offer change of the right sort. Thank you. Lets go back to politics and are subject but in particular lets talk about the labour party so with this blowout election in december what caught my eye and the rewrite its own majority government in half a century in negative terms. So watching in amazement during the nominating battle we are holding a referendum and really looking backward between the left and center. Why did our respected parties lurch so far to the left after long and successful students and governing . This is a great question. Because there was the perception post financial crisis and post 9 11 we needed more radical politics because of the problems people were suffering. When we should have gone to radical modern we went to radical oldfashioned. The fact is you cannot persuade people to go back in time. So just reject that thats not how they live their lives. I have had this discussion with people after the financial crisis but many said the public has moved left and i say where is your evidence . They say the financial crisis , a failure of market and i say all you are telling me is why you think they should have moved left i said what is the evidence that they have . Because when times are tough, tough, people want Practical Solutions and they want to know you are addressing the future. And that coalition that brought myself to power in the uk through to successful terms we governed as long as the longest one in history but yes we regarded that coalition is probusiness and we made sure even trade unions had a place in our party and consultations that nonetheless decide