Just said we live in a fragile world today. And as a class as complex and difficult situation that we as a society have yet to figure out. At a personal level, i make decisions every day, i bought this car a while back, a hybrid but i tell you i have annoyed you if the co2 i get for my 70 Miles Per Hour gallon as a benefit to all of us outweighs the cost of creating the car and the potential pollution impact of the battery after get stored. And maybe if we had not done the battery we would export new technologies that have less of an impact, was it good for me too buy this car, i do not know. This is my mom, i bought her that scarf a couple years ago at christmas. If i had bought that 100 years ago fine, no problem. Today i dont know if that scarf was made in a sweatshop using cotton that had pesticides growing on it and there were huge amounts of co2 as the scarf traveled a long way away to the place were about it. My choices have actions at a distance and i have annoyed you what those impacts will be. So that is what i will be talking about today. You guys have a new superpower, not all negative, the choices you make have Ripple Effects through the world. I like to think of it as a fish in a pond, maybe 200 fish of the size of human society, the fisher in thereupon and everything is going okay for a few years, then a storm happens in a river opens up connecting the fishpond to the ocean. Oh my goodness knew fish swim up stream and its fundamentally different. Because there is saltwater. I think we are in that situation today as a society. Things are changing radically, our actions have outcomes at a distance. That woulthat is what link is, the actions that we take in the decisions that we make as we consider those actions in the past through which those actions become reality. How can we be responsible for the outcome of our actions if theyre invisible . If we cannot see the outcome of our actions, if the fish in the larger ocean is no longer in a small pond, we simply did not evolve to the situation. I am lucky i went to the computer resolution, when i was a kid computers were big old things that nobody could use and my mom didnt know the difference between software and hardware. I had to explain that to her. We went through massive computing technology. Were going to the same stuff today with a. I. And data in the new technology stack. A. I. Is done to us but we dont have control over it. Data is overwhelming at a distance at best we get a Data Visualization but i had the honor of interviewing hundreds of people as a Technology Analyst for a few years and asked them what are you frustrated about, if technology could solve one problem, what would it be. And over and over again i heard a similar answer, and it looked sort of like this, this is why im pretty sure i know what im doing. Background for me, i have been building Machine Learning applied systems are really long time, over 30 years. So i was funded by the human genome project to graduate school, i built hundred Million Dollar budgets for the government, i have built thousands of Machine Learning models, mostly supervised learning, who wouldve known it would still be with us so many years later, my Machine Learning friends know what im talking about. It enters the equation. Im honored to be sitting here. And were closely with them. I like that he called it intelligence augmentation because we can sort of thing is ai. We think upside down. Splitting humans at the center of the equation again. And when i interviewed all of those people, i found the decision archetype. What is the decision. It is an action, thought process leads to an action and that action in a complex world, and we do some stuff. I dont know what buying that scarf or cart will do the world. Its going to have some impact. But honestly, i dont feel very motivated because i can see it. Its all present for me. It doesnt grab my primate brain makes me think gosh i really need to buy that hybrid car. I cant see it. The data today, and the ai status today is not giving it to me. This is my dog, i am training him to be a service dog. And ive had him much as a life, is about 11 months old. I had this awesome thing happened to me. I have a trainer is teaching me to train the service dog and she taught me about abc. Behavior consequence in my head exploded. It is exactly what i heard from the humans that ive been interviewing. The executives ive been talking to. Theyre always talking about the antecedent which is the context, fornication, its a set. Behavior. Reductions. The consequence, he gets a cookie. So this is universal archetype. Its not just one way to think about how we might use ai and data. I will tell you a little bit about that in a moment. I am pretty certain this is the way to think about it because it has the lowest fiction to how humans think. The lowest friction to how humans actually think. Maybe people live in complex environments. They dont have much brainpower to learn the optimism station or ophthalmology or any of those fancy things. And the fact that we are not has created a giant cultural barrier between people at head of government, at the head of businesses and even we as we try to make decisions and try to use the evidence and data of ai, to help make sure that those decisions have a Ripple Effect that is good read the farmers i am working with, they have to decide what crops to plant. Down the road, they dont know if that crop will make some productive or what will happen because they have fewer migrant workers. The situation has changed. The mighty side were to acquire a company or what product to flaunt or what price to change and is a topic through, you hear much of what went on here, is an antecedent which is the situation and behavior, we will watch this product. And then down the road somewhere, windows media. He is a dog before us, and what makes us special is we can go through long chains of consequences. But that is limited and we need computer help. So again, a decision is an imaginative process in our heads as we think through the actions in some context it will lead to some result. If you remember nothing else, remember this template. And what is cool about decision intelligence which is what the book is about is because we start with humans, you can take home and use this immediately. That is my promise if you stick with the talk. Okay. How we make decisions today. I am sorry to say, i recently learned this. Especially in a complex world. But going back from Human Element evolution, we dont really think through the consequent design our decisions very deeply. Were much more likely not to think through these rationally, and instead use social stigma looking signaling. We look at someone who is a successful in our company was dominant and prestigious and recopied the decision they have been making. It turns out that is very effective. It has been hugely successful for the human race in fact is what separates us from many other species. With the great copier. And that evolution theories say that we develop patterns that any individual cant understand but that the society like kind of the unconscious proposition of genetic evolution, we have this evolution to come up with these behaviors because its what we are programmed for. We are programmed to look at some prestigious or dominant person and do with the do. As opposed to shrinking to the consequences. That was quite for a few millennia in. But the situation has changed. First of all, there is about actor here, or here, and they tell us what to do, and were smart, they can subvert our behaviors. They can influence us to make decisions that benefit them but not us. If they are smart about the situation. Second, the context is massively changing. We need to be developing new ways of coping with this big ocean is fundamentally different. Because it keeps changing. And back and forth and the old ways of thinking through problems and societal and crowd levels, are no longer working. These have complex system dynamics. The feedback effect, we see winner take all. All patterns, where large tiffanys martial artist at 90 percent of the benefit and his massive inequality. Action at a distance, we talked about it. Anybody whos work data, we tend to focus on what we can measure easily. Money. Price, and we tend to overlook reputations and happiness, morale. And yet ive never built a decision model didnt have at least one Feedback Group that involved something intangible. A soft factor. We must Start Talking to the sociologist, the cultural evolution is, all of those other disciplines to understand those hot factors. In decision intelligence creates a roadmap for how to do that. To nothing and didnt say is the future is no longer like the past. And so you know the work of the problems, we estimate the best in the future the same. Based on past and we dont realize our situations have changed. These big black notes white or white in no slack. And oddly nai, which i will tell you about, they can solve this problem. I grew up in a period of technology optimism. We are all sharing all of our code and the internet was going to democratize reality and we going to collaborate. We had a dream. I dont think we have realized the dream. I think decision intelligence will help us go there. I think we created a number of police in the change, did the machines. Collaboration in the internet and social media, and there is one garlic that we need. To start to make a big difference and to have a nonlinear impact. That is di which will start to target a little bit it will practically about right now. How do we do di. We start with people. Well say where is the data. We dont say we cant do this ai without data. Data is great but theres a huge amount of Human Knowledge premarket about knowing how our actions lead to outcomes pretty how he go home ask a friend who didnt come to the stock how they think about a complex decision. I promise you they will talk about actions. And ultimately lead to outcomes in the context. So what i do as i sit down with a Diverse Group of experts. Young gender race in different outcomes. I know so Many Companies who have drastically big projects never sat down and brainstorm through the outcomes. I go in a consultant fairly senior levels of organizations and i said what are you trying to achieve. In the listed outcomes is different for each person. Let me tell you you dont need technology to get better. You just need to have a bearing brainstorming process we think through what are the outcomes we are trying to achieve as a team. Is it higher revenues, net revenue after two years, is it some kind of a military advantage. We want to create a military advantage that doesnt hit us ten years later. What are the outcomes that we are trying to achieve. Make sure you ask that question. Second, brainstorm through the action. Many folks dont take the time to have an open brainstorming session where they allow that ideas for the actions we can take in to see those outcomes. Do that, remove all of the blood to the creative side of your brain because when the blood is in the creative side of the analytical side of your brain. You dont have room for the creative side. So separate those two. Spend some time being creative. And then spent some time being analytical. These triangles here are where ai intersect. In most precision models democratize ai, distinct patterns. This is how we will do it. So let me talk about the decision i am facing today. I saw greta on tv. And she was so compelling. She said weve got a climate crisis. And though i resolve this, it is really simple. Stop worrying about analysis and then at the very least, pavers and trees. The organizations all over the world that will take your money and buy trees. In the streets will grow and so there will be more biomass and that will have some carbon and if enough people do this perhaps, but i dont know if she said this trees alone will do it but she said it would make a big difference. I havent sent any money to a Tree Organization yet. I cant visualize how this money that i might send needs to achieve to some outcome. If i am going to use ai to benefit me, i want interactive fun experience. And so this is what i think the future is of ai. It will look like a videogame. And i hope we can do some of this in the basement because we can do this through the vcr. We can walk through this. And what are we doing in the spaces. We are experienced inc. With actions we might take and we are letting the computer help us understand the chain of events that sets in motion. And lead to the consequences. Valuable personal level, also highly available an organizational level. Lets see if this works. Ive been having a lot of fun coding. I really like it. Business at two for the future, and has no purpose whatsoever except to show you theres a physics running through here. What is going on here. We are trying to make a decision as to how much money am going to pay each year to kuester carbon. As a change in this decision, this data here is telling me about the future that puts in motion. Iceman some money, i change my decisions, and changes the number of trees that i will purchase. And changes note biomass. Here is the total atmospheric carbon. So i can see the chain of events. Now linda is the expert in the background list and some research and by the way, you mightve also but none some research for each expert has an opportunity to seek how these actions connect to the outcomes. And here it not only i change my decision but i can also change whether samhan is right. And who i can trust. Because i can see different people, different experts, playing different things. Ultimately i can also click on the names, and i can go to the site, where i can see where they are making the case. That where there models are leading to outcomes that can help us. In this like wikipedia can oversight that is curated that we can use to understand people. Im sorry to understand the situation. This sort of like a Business Intelligence dashboard. Like stuff we have been building for a long time. But it is telling you its not. Were not looking at a data set here. We are looking at the future. Really summarizing it in bar chart so you can understand it and in the background, depending on our choices, we also have a generating applications of those choices. I did a lot of investments, and as ive changed my investment or i use lindas opinion, i can see how my decision interacts with the situation as they characterize it. In order to impact the outcomes that i care about. This universal pattern. This example here is an example of something that you do in your head 500 times a day. And that Large Organizations really struggle with understanding impacts of todays decision tomorrow. So well give you a couple of examples, these are Machine Learning models here. These little triangles. We might have built a machine or model that detects whether a Computer System has occurred and shows you what is happening right now. That is a coming Machine Learning. Its pretty widespread use. And he gives score. In my be 20 percent, goes up to 95 percent rate is pretty sure theres an intrusion thing right now. Yet another model, the sense here the type of intrusion, dd os attack or something else. And in this picture is typical of many decision model situations. It has some spaghetti in it. But thats getting this really how people naturally think. I promise you if the spaghetti is how you are thinking about things, is a lot better to have it on paper and try to keep it in your mind and explain it when using invisible mechanisms today words, and tax which inherently linear to communicate these decisions. We need a blueprint like this legions of being an architecture diagram for Machine Learning system. It shows how Machine Learning begins and then we have some choices. And like its been my intrusion information to the police, i can investigate the intrusion. It will force you to costbenefit and have an outcome. If i call the police every time, it might be pretty costly. We need to try to call the police only when necessary. This is a decision marla built with a bunch of farming experts as part of that big project he talked about. And as 23 phds in seven institutions and were just finishing up this week. Crusher fingers that we win this friend it would National Center for excellence in ai and agriculture. Was important about this is i didnt have to explain the intelligence to anybody. I simply sat down with my diverse team of experts and i said what is the farmer trying to achieve. The first they wanted to do crops at the end of the year. Susan is not all. And they said well you know what, they wouldnt want to take actions that would put them out of business in a few years. So that is a second goal that they need to balance against that. And we talked about the actions. Those farmers might take. To make choices about how they spring their crops for the spring schedule and the choice of crop and hybrid in the cultivar. This gives us a map to understand how all of the imt and ai Machine Learning technologies were together because theres a couple of models here at the telus how precision spring will impact the yield is on the model this is the amount of type of diseases or contaminants that we might have, they set off frames. Iot, sensors that farmers might have on the drawing or somewhere in the field that they can use again with ai to interpret the data to know what their path starting in this Early Warning if it is possible so that we can spray as little as possible in order to achieve our goals. Both from a cost and long term viability and a climate and pollution point of view. So the type of spaghetti, but i promise having you this began getting on paper is a lot better on whats going on right now which is in the visible and people said pretty is artifact and we talk about value thinking. We design a decision. And its something that we can design. That is pretty radical. But when we do it we realize we can bring all of this engineering best practices to decisions. We can qa this thing. We can continuously improve it. It acts as a blueprint that connects the endusers. My stakeholders about this. This is their mental model. It connects and up to the ai people so they know where they fit in. Theres a wonderful moment