i'm lesley barton. welcome to the election headquarters. we are awaiting the biggest wave of results that we will get tonight. 263 polls about to close to alberta that includes ontario, and the northwest territories. some battlegrounds places you just need to win if you want to form government. the picture where the country is headed is about to get a whole lot clearer. should tell you that it's about an hour delay but there is one that will wait a little bit longer. we've got reporters across the country where the leaders are and where the voters are and there will be results from coast to coast on what they could mean as we say for the future of canada. results have already started coming in from east to west and remember 338 you can see already let us give you a bit of a snapshot of this. in the numbers at the bottom of your screen in two hours we will see how the rest of the country has decided and how close the race could be. certainly there were some tight results coming in and going to track the numbers and it's an awful lot of work. the task is a big picture of canada, what's happening across the country. >> it would have been virtually impossible to replicate their flawless performance sweeping all through the atlantic region and so any loss is not a surprise and right now they are down seven seats. they can afford to be down 16 across the country and to still hold onto their majority government. so that means they have some losses and the bigger that gets over the course of the evening, the more uphill in the battles they face in québec and ontario and of course in dc if the knife goes that long and the election relies on those results coming in. i want you to pay attention to the conservative number they had a big mountain to climb. plus 72 is the number they would hope to hit if they have the majority government right now they are plus five which we can characterize as a sluggish sta start. they will have to fight tooth and nail in the suburban ridings in ontario and then really strongly in british columbia if they have a form. co. hope of helping. conservatives are leaving and for this graphic shows you is we are certain of 1 17 of 26 in thn which the liberals currently have the lead but that leaves a handful in which the liberals had a lead but the vote margins were relatively small, so only a couple hundred votes. so those could still slip in either direction. and there are about three out of the fight whic five which they y leaving so the numbers in flux and it means as you pointed out a lot in play in québec. >> and a good sign maybe things -- andrew will be back as it continues to change and give you a sense of where things are. stephen cochran has a look at the writings be identified early on the battleground in the country. >> these are 60 that could make or break the night and they are all across the country all the way to vancouver island. many are the key for any parties of the government and those that were held by the major parties and independent we are watching those writings that with the leaders of the party is a lot of time and everyone sees a breakthrough. we are watching those that can block anybody's chances that the majoritmajority, and in westerna energy and pipeline politics is going to be fueling the voter to such a made up in the wild west, british columbia, the key four-way races that will not be settled until late into the night. to give you a sense of what they were talking about, we will look at milton that is in the ontario. the liberals think they can steal it and when you look at this you think she would be safe but she's literally got a gold medal opponent. new subdivisions are going up bringing the voters liberal demographics and the overlaying his divorce factor. the polling is between and that is a real challenge for the conservatives in milton and all around the 905. >> how many more lines do you have like that so i can prepare myself? [laughter] i was there a week ago because of struggling with the fact they are inherently liberal. heather, you are going to set us up for what we should watch. >> they are held by cabinet ministers and are under attack. a family ministry and the architect even in its popularity doesn't mean an easy path for the reelection. writing is a conservative target. canada has come back to writing this for 18 years, so a tight three-way race and the economy expects to see this through the problem. liberals made a breakthrough four years ago when seven of the eight writings in and around winnipeg they are in play including jim facing a love of opposition to the carbon tax and it's the same issue next-door in sucsuch along. conservatives have two goals colonco the: cody once a prime d they want to beat ralph gooding. the only red in the province has been goodale. can the popularity outweigh the campaign this time and strong anti-liberal sentiment? one more time, we will have to see that we are several hours into the night and there are still good storylines. >> we went to goodale campaign today and it didn't go well with many liberals i know. they thought that was a bit [inaudible] you've got to set the stage for us. >> 15 minutes every week -- >> i think it's like five of us watching. [laughter] >> right now let's think about to writings in a similar storyline, conservative mps who lost in 2015 and were hoping to get back to the house of commons in 2019 let's begin. what is interesting about this is the kind of writing that the conservatives need to pick up this time around if they want to turn things around nationally. it's in the 905, north of toronto. last time around, hard to beat the two-time conservative mp and in this case, can we see the conservative with atlantic canada around the table. amarjeet sohi ended up winning this by 80 votes last time around it was a surprise to a lot of people. tim uppal was before. already lives in all of us who doesn't have far to go. [laughter] >> [inaudible] >> other people do that also. it's just how they manage. what was i going to tell you? yes, we are 20 minutes away across the country. what are you watching for with these now? >> to what happens to the conservatives because if it is changing. when you talk to voters there are two things they were happy to vote for. in this case increasingly with every passing week with the entertaining for the conservatives and then to become [inaudible] and we lose the ground so if there is a breach it's going to be the conservatives are now. >> the support is very concentrated. i'm going to come to another, do you think the performance at the debate it was from a leading candidate for worst performance in the debate that i have seen i think in all of the years that i covered the federal politics. >> [inaudible] let's see what they have to say the premiere, the interim leader of the party, the list goes on. you're just walking in looking at the board. what does this bring to mind in terms of what we are seeing and how you interpret that? >> i agree completely. we were starting to look back at the situation of having all this heat so you can't look perfect after all of that. that is what happens on election night. on the whole i think that we came out of it better than might have been expected with a stronger result and some are still going back and forth. i noticed it goes from 25 to 24 so there are some close races. but i think we all recognize the needs of the matter is going to be québec and ontario and british columbia. we will see how that goes. it is a very strange election because election night in 2015 when the liberals 132 seats, something is going on here, this is amazing. you can do very well in atlantic canada and not as well in québ québec. it's a very regionalized result. it's hard to read the trend during the election and harder for people to get traction so it's going to be an interesting night. >> and potentially a long one. >> i should tell you that at this hour it is up to i think almost 10%. 10% now all over atlantic canada which begs the question the green party in some wa way may e they placing it in terms of support for that part of the country and again they are on the board with just one leaning right now and that is that a tight race in victoria british columbia with the leader of the green party how is she feeling about this? how are you feeling right now to see how your party is doing? >> and fredrickson and throughout particularly new brunswick has been won over one in which we have high hope. it will be great to have a caucus that represents british columbia. >> what is a realistic look at success and failure of the party tonight? >> it also leads to policy that basically means you can't hold on to all of it because the next one that comes in and fix everything out. it would be good to have a woman come in but we are committed to do the best we can for canada is a good result is one where we can play a significant role of influence in a minority parliament. >> if you break even you don't lose any ordain any, what does that say about the party? it is critical looking at the world. how if you can't manage to gain the momentum in the campaign then when is the time? >> way too early in the evening for me to comment on a question like that. i don't think anyone is predicting the possibility of a green seat in new brunswick. >> what are you hoping for? >> more coming with the because we need to have hard-working representation. >> thanks. appreciate that. >> the decision we can show you they are still in first place and what is surprising so far is 600 votes ahead and andrea johnson met the liberal in third place and they are worried about the vote and they may lose it outright. going to move to sydney victoria where there's a 145 vote lead over the liberal candidates. this one has gone back and forth all night because the conservatives wanted a fire they may get them at the polls instead but this one is over. the maverick in the rematch more than half the polls reporting long is campaigning and says i will send for them and i'm standing for you. it's not the same stuff we have seen from a lot of people. this is where the energy pipeline would have gone an issue distancing itself from the party. >> again from canada. >> take a look at what is happening in new brunswick in the writing like this that's been going back and forth in the evening over 40% of the polls are now reporting we are seeing it go back and forth and now it is the lead of just 36 conservatives as you can see have the lead. >> i should tell you that all of the cabinet ministers for the parties will be elected tonight so that would be the good news and then reassuring for them as we talked about earlier in the night they haven't upset everybody ended just remains in the pockets of this stage. >> looking again at the two of the ridings where the incumbent is not running for reelection and the race is so close in. he's watching this very closely. he retired after his sixth term and david was saying these are all the signs across the rising he's been the former speaker and is trailing and then the question a progressive conservative, independent, liberal, and now he had been canned gamin -- campaigning. pleading with over 200 votes with a former mp that the conservatives are bringing back. of course we are just over ten minutes away from the polls closing in 263 from québec to alberta to the two territories s and he should update you again that there is one where things will be delayed and that those liberal and if you are there you will have an extra hour to vote and there have been some minor problems in toronto and ottawa. keep in mind if you are in line and worried about the clock ticking, don't worry you can stay and watch and still cast your ballot. they will take you in him to stay on top of any other issue that may happen. back with the watch party who was talking about what to expe expect. >> the bill presents the public service workers. how do you think the parties did on this? >> terrible. there's no other way to think of it. it's unconstitutional and in this issue we are asking people to choose between their faith and their job. it's the worst thing happening in the country right now. all we heard from the parties that sort of mumbled some attitudes about health people deserve and i won't do a darn thing about it. >> about what would you have liked to have heard of? >> there were similar things and they were very popular according to the polling and one stood up and said that's not right. i'm opposed to that and he won the election so there's opportunities the federal government has too cut off federal funding to the provinces that have discriminatory laws. we haven't seen any of that yet. >> you said they may intervene later. can i ask you were you disappointed? >> yes i mean, especially after the bombing in québec this was a chance for leadership to show some courage and to stand behind those in the community looking at the bill. i can't in good faith understand and this pretty much blows your chances of forming the government why they would take a stronger stance let's not forget that they had one name etched into the garden and it was alexander. let's not pretend that the decisions we make don't have larger implications across the country. >> do you think we can see similar bills across the country? >> i think over the years in order to maintain a unique and separate culture surrounded day are somewhat xenophobic absolutely. he can't afford to lose the seats that he is caught and he's likely to lose some of them. i think that it's a failing on the part of the liberal government of the alienation and in alberta. >> something we have been talking about tonight -- >> there is a lack of fortitude but the good news to the public it doesn't matter if the federal government intervenes or not in the court case because both will be argued at a union and the courts will hear it and figure it out and share both sides so this tells more about the leadership than the constitutionality of the law. >> lack of fortitude i think that is a line i'm going to steal. >> a key battleground as we have been talking about it could be the spoiler at this stage remember they started off with just ten seats but can they came back? here's 40 days in 40 seconds. ♪ >> it's working for the benefits of québec. québec doesn't need to be told what to do or not to do. we are a significant player in politics. as we wait for results coming in in about five minutes, here at the headquarters in montréal. they are very hopeful tonight. >> supporters started to arrive at the headquarters and there is a lot of anticipation. the energy is building because of what could be a big game in québec. people have the flag draped around their shoulder. he went into the campaign with ten seats in the house of commons doesn't the number of official party status. i've been speaking with some of the supporters and they have high expectations and say they want the interest represented something they feel they haven't gotten so they are eagerly waiting for the results to come in how this plays out. >> we will see how that unfolds and you will be there through the night. four minutes away now from the polls closing in québec, ontario, a whole bunch of them about to come in so let's weigh in briefly. andrew, haven't heard from you for a while. >> if they given they are going to sweep most of the west. they always do going to the 1950s. if they come even close to a plurality of entity in ontario. there's so many on the knife's edge we will just have to wait and see. >> the liberals thought they might lose three or four seats. [inaudible] it's kind of like status quo in 2000. 26 so far isn't so bad. >> they wanted to double digits. it's not encouraging but it's not depressing either. what are you going to watch for as the polls are too close. >> what i find for them there are still three where no one has been elected and that doesn't bode very well for what happens in ontario because if they have the same kind of night they are not forming the government anytime soon. >> they didn't think that it was doing particularly well. it started to slip out of their hands is that a fair assessment of? >> there's a lot of challenges for them looking at what is coming up mac is. they are going to lose a key problematic and when we get into ontario there are key seats we will all be watching. if you want any chance of forming a government that's conservative, you have to win bolton and around ottaway or eastern ontario. if you can secure those seats you are not forming a government but strategically longer-term it speaks to the viability of the party in a way that others don't. >> that is something that we need to watch. they might go down to two seats in shows that wasn't a real thing. as the hours unfold we will shape the future of the country your time, choice, lots are starting to close down and results are starting to come in. ♪ ♪ welcome to canada votes. tonight a culmination of 40 days and 40 nights of a relentless campaign. who can you trust and count on. a campaign of promises, policies, attacks. now it's voting time. >> the power is in your hands and we think the result this is election night. >> welcome to our election headquarters we are awaiting the results we are going to get tonight they have just close from québec all the way through to alberta. let me show you what that is on the map, those are key battlegrounds as we've just been talking about its central to forming the government and we need to pick up some seeds and you can see that this is what the map looks like right now. leaving for the liberal party in 24 they are on the board with one walk leading and you may wonder where that is the closest half an hour before everyone else and the green party in fredericton so we are standing by to bring the results of the cominas theycome in fast and fue results are stacked up with heather, david and andrew they will bring up the big picture and the result to help dissect what's happening. we've got representatives from all of the teams if you will. the former host of the national. you had a bunch of titles we are going to see these hundreds of writings coming and have a pretty good idea of how the evening is going to unfold over the next two hours and that means it is a two speech night for some of the key leaders. they have the iwan and i lose. >> get ready to see. [laughter] >> and then it goes to the what do i do now and what is that pretty going to think that i should do. we hinted at this a little bit earlier. she will have some big decisions it looks like she's going to win ththe seats in atlantic canada t she isn't going to do with a lot of the party expected to happen. >> we will come back to you throughout the evening of cour course. here are those that we watched the country. >> the first is going to be york center. they went to it early in the campaign. the candidates for the liberals of the 15 vote controversial candidate because of the views seen as what the liberals would call the secret agenda but i was speaking to some leading up and they said if there is a city in the seat this is the one that they are most worried about. >> i was going to bring a little breaking news that's coming. the senator for québec that used to be the editor in chief appointed to the senate just tendered his resignation from the senate saying that it will be effective 930 immediately eastern time. the trust that it would be more of a betrayal to continue supporting. there's a whole other side sto story. >> he handled it ahead of the vote. he wanted to become public before the result but after people voted because he doesn't want it to be misconstrued over what happens over the next hour and a half. >> conversations we will have a little bit later bu to put that together with results. it's just coming in now. the minister of heritage off to an early start with a lead. this is held currently with these early numbers obviously the first votes coming in. this is what we are going to be looking at as the key tonight. there is no orange on the board for the results so you'll have to show us where it collapses. >> the first two are the parties that one in 2015 in the conservative territory of liberals of this winning last time around. it's interesting winning this last time around and rud do the turtle was in the lead and just one of the polls reporting and they are leaving with just one poll reporting. >> the issue needed to be dealt with and it is of course a provincial issue they are still working on that or they were. >> we have the first results from your hometown. if the last two weeks were good to make up for the years before that this is the seats they need. the incumbent with a vote lead by 61 so if you are going to get a left. going back to heather. you mentioned no orange on the board. these were the last vestiges let's see how they are faring, trailing in fourth place right now he of course was the parliamentary leader. this is a very complicated writing. he is a liberal now that former minister. i hope we get some time to spend on who was what because they've left and everybody is mixed together but it's the liberals that believe. this was one of the closest writings in 2015. the liberals tried to recruit her on different indications and didn't se as you can see as we k at that it was a slim tight race and want to watch tonight. >> there is a direct transfer and that is what happened in 2011 but it's all of the support that went so to see it go back isn't voting while. >> when you have these results, i mentioned they had in intriguing that raises questions about what we might see in the writings let's start with this one of the superior north with just one poll reporting and we will show you a couple of the ridings where the party that one in 2015 is in the lead again. >> we are seeing them pulling away now if david cochran has results. >> the theaters are trying to make their way back and they are hoping so that may backfire because it is an issue with the dirty tricks we expect to see that. a parliamentary secretary beginning in the cabinet but it is a tough place for liberals and also the early lead at 27 voted here in ontario conservatives are going to win the most seats and formed a majority government they must when things like this one. they have to show the liberal incumbent 336 votes ahead of the conservatives. >> early results still but this is a good sign for the liberals tonight doing pretty well so keep your eyes on some of those numbers and let's hear what people are telling you about what they are watching. >> prior to the campaign i remember sitting down with the candidates we think we can we know we will the trajectory given everything we have seen discussed to the plate in the last two weeks they were saying things like i'll be going to lose, how many seats might we lose. that changed the majority population. it essentially moved them out if they are to outperform their own expectations that is a really big deal and we should be paying attention. >> i heard conservatives say to get 30, 40. both the liberals and conservatives were looking between 40 and 40 it could go as low as 25 but everybody today was talking between 30 and 40. >> we will see where that goes now. it does seem to be hurting the vote. of course they don't have a time now. they only have 40 -- >> it's their biggest caucus. they have very little anywhere else. >> i think that raises the same point in districts t districts u wonder if you can't hold anything or all the seats are being transferred and that is the only way you want them in the first place, was that a real thing or something that wasn't given enough attention backs >> they are pretty progressive with one major exception aligned with the values. i understand why they would move back and forth. i would say though earlier we were talking about what they consider the influence and this time around, i would like to talk about the environment we solve the climate strike and yes there were students but also young people and if we look in this area, there are a lot of writing where the voters are high percentage 35 and under so those like 55% of the voters there under the age of 35 there will be adverse to to see what happens because they want action on climate and it means different things and we think where they want to put their vote but it's interesting to see where. >> is this about climate change and if we are running out of time to deal with some and david has more results at this hour. >> we are going to look at the seat. they have a challenge here. he won this last time and was kicked out of the caucus because of the conduct and the candidate is a early lead. this is the seed for the liberals and the conservative leadership trying to make a comeback. after leaving the service is expected to be at play and we are back in the vote and right now the conservative candidate has moved ahead of the theater from the people's party of canada. expect to see the strategy. particularly in québec because they are well known we could have seen those results. >> we will keep watching. it may not be a celebration. we should tell you that it's early enough that you see the numbers start to move around and there's a lot to come still and he will update us on some of those. >> let's not read into it too much but look to see what the vote totals are telling us at this point. it's down by almost five percentage points. they have grow rubbed down and l have a decent total. the conservatives need to build on what was not a very good showing. they are up a little bit but not as much as they would like. it historically has done well and they would lose it in 2011 but they are in the lead right now and one of those that just keeps on winning but with one reporting is still in the lead. >> the liberals picked up the seats last time so that was the key to the informing of the majority. heather has results now. >> looking at the north west and far east of the vote is changing we are looking at 33.9% we haven't seen that level of popular support since 2008. the majority in that the popular support is down a little bit from what it was four years ago and there you see the rest of the party but let's take a look as i mentioned this is one of the writings. the incumbent didn't run for the reelection. leaving in the early going he thought the only one to pay a visit to this he hoped to become a voice for indigenous people much more activist role for them in canada's parliament. as we go to the furthest right of, you see a slim lead over the incumbent in this winning 41% of the vote last time and should have held. >> we are going to go to david now. >> it could very well be the story of the block and we will look at the story from the early results. 239, 51 vote lead excuse me over the liberals if you woul she woe first one to win the seat in the house of commons since 2008. we are going to take a couple of looks this is cambridge and it's one of those held by the conservatives that the liberals have held that the federal level and it's one of the key battlegrounds outside of toronto as the conservatives needed to win and this is one that they feel they can take back. it is a rematch with a pretty good rally at the headquarters they were all extremely confident. >> just a couple of things not to make a big deal about it, but the worry they had is that the vote would eat into their vote if you look at the first couple of the same, it isn't there and i think that is because people are voting strategically and in those ridings where people say we haven't got a chance of winning here and for example in team ridge, that has been a fight going back to the politi politics. it's too early to see there is a trend, but it's interesting. it's down to 3.2% in ontario and it can't be doing that if you want to reclaim any of the seeds that is also bad news for the conservatives need to have been performing at a certain level in order to flip the vote and make sure. >> let me show you with a map of canada looks like right now you can see right there at the end but look at that light blue in the middle that is why it is now elected and 12 writings they are moving in the right direction they are looking for the balance of power but they are on the right track if we start tracking left we can see them starting to pick up in places where they traditionally do well in ontario editor is a little orange spot with early results into the conservatives are doing well in all the places that you would suspect. i should tell you that one is peace river. so all the writings in british columbia still to come and we will bring you other results from the territories reporting now. andrew is going to come in and start to get a big picture of what we are seeing the liberals starting to pull away. >> we've got about a million votes in the system right now. if you are following at the bottom of the screen you see all of the numbers started to decline as we get to the results of every single writing at least from atlantic canada all the way to the edge of the border with british columbia so you might be asking can any party, 170 is the target in order to form the government and you see here it's one way we can answer the questions of 38.5%. that's the feeling any party would have to smash through to form a majority government. we have never seen a party fall short of that mark. right now the qualifier still a lot of the votes around canada so we are almost certainly going to see their share of the vote continued to drop from down to 39 and potentially further. talking about how they can afford to be down 16 and still hold onto their majority so they are still within that wiggle room and can see ever so lightly up three seats looking for a stronger performance particularly in ontario, but again still a lot of the writings in the area that we haven't seen the results from and a lot of them from albert vestal yet to come which we know as a traditional power base. >> it's good to get that big picture which i know if you are a voter that is what you want to know that it's good to get the big picture of where we are heading in terms of the government forming tonight as well. >> we will show you three others that they hol hold power trailig the other results. this is only one of 273 polls. it's a very popular incumbent is a breakthrough candidate right now. here the block is off to an early lead in fourth place right now the liberals running second dispose targeted by the parties taking it away it was concerned people thursday 13 vote lead over. >> i should say -- >> we will see how that unfolds. what we are looking at is a number of popular votes for the block. it's really coalescing into doing well for them in terms of increasing their share but not necessarily translating it into pickup. there's a couple of writings i want to highlight now even up from where we were when we last looked at it and it would put it up slightly to the official party status realm, but again not necessarily the huge surge of pickup. but where there are some interesting writings where the block is taking the lead in the eastern townships he held for 15 years but isn't running so they have recruited a candidate in second place. running right now behind leaving early on. this is one that you will all know well. the liberal incumbent there right now and a businesswoman well known that has appeared on more than one occasion this is one to watch. it will be good to get a picture of where the conservatives are going because there isn't much on the. they are now leaving it on their way to a good night here. >> we've been talking about the vote share in ontario. let's take a closer look at that. it's still early but you can see the conservatives now are in first place i will leave it up to some of you but it feels like they would be hoping to have a bigger vote share than that. they were won by parties that are not leaving right now but there liberals and the lead that may change as we count more votes. it's interesting how it's been in the writing for a while and right now again, still early that we will keep an eye on that to see if there can be a pickup. this is a riding where the liberal party made the views very clear and this is the writing that i believe they have been hoping they can regain. >> thanks for that. you can see the liberals are starting to pull away and these are the places you need to start pulling out the big words >> the questions that we are hung up on right now is whether they are a head so let's look at that. whether they can form a majority government. that is short of 170. but you say there's still 166 writings to come maybe they will end up in the liberal camp so should impose count towards the 170 let's have some of those numbers and make an assumption and say that every writing in which the liberal one in 2015 would say they win again of the remaining writings in which we don't have results right now, e.g. five plus 94 get ten past 170 would suggest to us given how things are going that the liberals could be on track to form a majority government and again, this is not just the number but this is based on a lot of things, based on the specific writings to come which we don't have results based on how those have come in the polling data and we will have to wait until we see those results to actually be able to project with certainty how it is going to end. this is based on what we know about how they have tended to go in the past. >> in the last election was 39.5% so more than they needed but peter wanted to comment on where we are at right now. >> they are doing okay they are on the path to where they want to end up in terms of a victory, but the interesting thing is going to be when you are looking at the big nap on the floor this is where we will develop into the situation of the two canada is in candidates in a way. they haven't seen it quite as clear. that developed into a western alienation story. it was a very tight result. there was no decision made and he did his famous the universe is unfolding as it should speech to reporters but that is something to watch. they had a couple seats going for them but after that you see it on the big nap and then of course when it closes. >> if you can go quickly. >> i think the witness protection program put forth was a bad idea because actually he had more popular support in ontario than the people understood and to keep them locked up in a room somewhere for 90 days was absurd and i'm not a big supporter but i recognize the strength of my opponents when i see them and the brand is not to be treated the way that it was. i think it was a big mistake by the conservative party to do that. .. >> but again reminder that we had that little delay in a north ontario and we might go past a little bit but all polls and almost all polls, because now in this country we're starting to get a pretty clear picture on where the country is headed. cory let me go to you on that. it reminded me that at the end of 2015, we do we're there we're stephen and things we're not going well, you guys actually do the opposite. you went and got the ford to try and see if you can take advantage of their popular support. this played very differently. >> in a campaign we're struggling, and having trouble getting rooms filled, we had 500 people come out. they were enthusiastic support. look i think the strategy of the liberals to go after doug ford makes political sense. you try to collapse progressive voters. and you have to do that by raising inspector of the bogeyman. that's about motivating those people to come back to the liberal party. this on to see that there is an inherent support for doug ford, in fact the recent bowling tomorrow, doug four is more popular than andrew scheer throughout this entire election campaign throughout ontario. i think it was a mistake. you think mobilizing conservative voters, is the night imposable see, in ontario and is something doug ford was able to do very successfully, 18 months ago and i think that we are not seeing signs of that same loophole of enthusiasm for interest here tonight. >> we should put up a caveat that you know part of his campaign. [laughter] you we're his fan. just throw the cards in the table. >> i was campaign manager but most of his career, working in fellow federal politics and a deep interest in the conservative party from coast-to-coast. >> i don't know what's happening here tonight. [laughter] >> is also the strategy of locking up the premier of ontario, this really at some.becomes insulting. the people who are actually loyal to him and see, who are these people who are locking up my leader. it's not ford nation for no reason. >> you bring in the premier alberta. [laughter] >> i try to this in my head happening, and it made no sense. >> at the same time though also failing the selection is the fear campaign which is the traditional liberal playbook, be scared of the tory you have to vote liberal. they had more success in 2015 with a different strategy which is the very positive ambitious ideological platform nesting ground up the love vault was more successfully than they have this time. >> i would see though that's nine new democrats, it's not a total failure yet. >> liska mcauley. he covers queen park here in ontario. he covers the premier regularly. the consensus at the table seems to be that it was probably a mistake. do not let doug ford be doug ford if you will, and to try and tap into that support but obviously for him, that's how he became premier. any thoughts in that. >> the question is would have it actually made things a pit worse if premier doug ford, was out front and center reminding ontarians about the way he is running his government here. the liberals didn't try to make this election about doug ford for no reason at all. they had polling data that was telling them that people we're more reluctant to vote for conservatives because of the way premier doug ford was performing. the conservatives have the same data two. that is why doug ford adjourned the legislature until next week after the election. that is why he wasn't out there campaigning within her share, that's why andrew sure did it talk about doug ford. i think clearly that these two strategies we're working against one another in the conservatives try to make up ground but he was into me these early indications that it worked the liberals to try and write down the federal conservatives by association with doug ford. soon i think that's a really i'm going. there's always a risk to letting doug for the doug park. obviously they waited and thought it's not going to work in this case. okay mike probably, will check in with you later. you are the headquarters there so we'll see if you can pull off a win and regain her seat from 2015. >> talk about doug for being in witness protection. the liberals used him like a piñata. the strategy may have worked in with a conga where they left and left a seat in support of jodi wasn't an frustration with the liberals and they were worried it could be a little bit of scorcher but the liberal candidate was at 116 lead vote in early numbers. stony creek, early democrats and the steelworkers are pouring her name into these to try to help the mbp but bob is holding onto his 76 lead. our professor running for the mvp. arriving, the liberals relabeled to onto michael but they were right because the greens have more strength there and traditionally, they are running second right now. federally holding on with a 105 vote lead and our final is nelson, the gold medal writing that we wanted to take those look at. adam, with an eight vote lead over conservative income it li lisa, that's going to be one to watch all night. one of the ten closes that you might want to watch. >> greens and the democrats, it is a two-way pipe. i think that is an important thing to notice. this attempt and what is the choice. a very focused choice between adamantly set. >> and has more results. and colin we're to take those look at the green party and how the drilling in ontario. elizabeth telling a reporter in british columbia, is is it too early, is it too early after the atlantic canada that results. thus for the greens are. she probably had in mind a little bit of early where we are synced with greens. let's look at the vote change. conservatives up by three points. not what they were hoping for. greens that by 2.9 before them that is a big change. let's see how that is playing out in a couple of varieties, this is the burst of 223 poles supporting but it is a significant one. the greens in the lead and will keep an eye on that over the next hour or so. and if spoke of this is the conservative writing and continue so far to be a conservative writing tonight. look at the range, pretty strong third. that's in muskoka at this. >> let's take those quick look at the floor here. and starting to. no results yet from propecia columbia. we'll keep an eye on the map for that part. a couple of things to tell you. ralph got out right now is still in front, we're some concerns that he might not be able to pull it off. the reason is very tight and alberta, seem to be leading and leaning blue conservative which would not be surprising off of that would be some liberals. to me what you are hearing right now. >> there's no way to overstate the significance of ontario we knew going into this that the victory bring the party was through ontario. i think two things focus on that, the first is the potential impact that diplomatically put it is strategic voting. sally the last sundays, you have to vote for us. did that work. >> victim of that. >> i'm sure you have. it can work. the consecutive speak up when others are staying about the court. interesting analysis and one that you really did hear through the media and for six weeks of this campaign there we're a lot of how could they ever associate with the words. we know with speaking with conservatives that just before the campaign people in the 95, at the door they were hearing very distantly from people that they did not want to be associated with that for me, that association has been drone and a specific conclusion that the federal conservatives, they couldn't afford it. we do know how much worse it could been if they did for them however i do take the point that there is a large constituency or support for doug. perhaps an impact, i wager against. maybe more than that. >> is the progress just check in where we are with the board again. liberals leak electives in the hundred and 24 writings, the conservatives that 94 and leading electives and 28, most parties predicted that they would get back to the space. they had ten in 2015, so this is the big gain for the bus tonight. the mvp doesn't have enough enough seats right now to forum official party status to get official party status. now i just got it. yet have told you that. so they need to at least hold up to that tonight. the greens have been leading electives and one and is still looking look i'm going for them in fredericton at this time. okay, decision desk is ready right now to make a call. ♪ your next government will be a liberal government. hang on his prime minister. so after a contentious nasty campaign, may in fact need the support of some of parties to govern the country. but we don't know how that's going to shake down. i'll really desire now is that we are getting candidates i can take a liberal government justin trudeau, is going to be very pleased, liberal headquarters right now, some excitement starting is they realize that they have held onto government tonight. she's in montréal at liberal headquarters, let's check in with her. >> is you getting chance behind me, four more years for more years, pretty happy crowd here. that call came rather quickly, but more quickly than they expected a couple of weeks ago. the chance of four more years, is the numbers we're creeping up is the projected seat counts, cheers appealing out when the crowds. the unfit and they got 200 then when the call came, from us and from canada it's pretty happy crowd here. it was interesting, the room was empty at the beginning. when the polls close in the eastern time zone the liberals we're watching separately. canada waited quietly watching the results from the atlantic region and they weren't really encouraged by the results coming in and they expected some of those and then with the results, pouring in from the eastern times and they started trickling in here and pouring into the room. so obviously pretty excited room so far waiting to hear weather it will be a minority or a majority government but you can feel the excitement building and what a change from just about half an hour ago. about 45 minutes ago when it was really part of why it's. there was still a little bit of nail biting is the team was waiting to see what was going to happen into effect. they were is worried about what was going to happen in the atlantic, it was to back that was the wildcard for now and they were feeling very confident about their chances in ontario. they're still wanting to hear though. >> let me extend to you and so everyone like we are also waiting to tell them a little bit more about what this government will look like. is was the case in canada, is has been the case for part of the night, monday writings that are still is it too coastal. fifty. fifty-nine writings at this hour with a margin of less than 50 votes if i'm not mistaken. i'll get that particular justices i can to give you a picture of what that looks like. but that means given how tight some of those reasons are, and 59 writings, whole bunch still, we are not yet ready to safe liberal minority or majority. thus things are still in play. that's how tight this races. we're just going to tell you that the liberal government justin trudeau hangs on for a second man for prime minister. we'll be able to firm that up just present. >> you have the now right in the head, so monday writings that are still in play. this 130 number it could go sky high arc and hold pretty stagnant. so start answering that question weather the liberals can cross this all important personal. when they can hit 38.5 percent and historically, historical presence, we have never seen a party not hit that mark. and still forum a majority government. the liberals are underneath that mark and remember what we saw just a few moments ago, the liberals we're turning around 4. but i was watching that number so closely and it felt like every five minutes it went by they went down and let another take. they've been dropping and the more results we been getting in from ontario and québec, that number has been dropping and of course in alberta. so right now, these numbers would suggest that the liberals not trending towards a majority government. bc results come. let me show you the seat change number so far. another metric by which we can try to gauge. is a much harder math calculation and rising heart, don't be difficult but this actually much clearer. the liberals, mathematically, can afford to lose 16 seats and hold onto majority. if they lose more than that, by bike majority. right now, they are down 20 seats. so those two things combined would suggest right now, with just a few short minutes ago, look like the liberals might be able to forum a majority or at least a path was open to that. right now the door appears to be tilting. but again, this all hinges on so monday of those writings which are so close. dozens of writings that we're within 5200 votes. that is in a row is it gets. and a few other the seachange numbers than to.out concern is up ever so slightly not nearly is monday is they would've helped if this is going to be a i'm going night for them and they only need to be plus two to forum official party status to recapture that status now they are up much more than that. f-18 and the mpp are down 14. if they lose monday more than that, they would be threatened with losing party status but of course this pc writing, are going to come up. >> so again just reminding you that there are so monday close calls still to come and a lot of writings not reporting it in british columbia which is why we are not yet ready to see what forum of liberal government this will take with schism or result from in right now. >> isn't this the time when you are glad you are not on the decision-making just right now. be very careful of making sure that they don't do that projection until the no that there is going to be a liberal government and will keep pressing and we don't know if it's going to make a majority or a minority. must take those look at the seachange in ontario and keeping in mind rosie what these are still very much in progress. we do can see at this.that the conservatives only ahead we do consider elective and primary of the leading only by us for seats. i want to show you three writings in the 95, we've been talking on the live. and in the nine oh five, this was the conservatives particular secret if he works to hold onto this, only 79 votes, difference and five polls are reporting he was there and he would like to become dmp and this is the writing the liberals one last time around with a different mp in one woodbridge, julian and tino his writing francesco one in 2015 and has affiliate link, 480 after 15 polls and finally oakville, anita and first time she is running off of this was a liberal when back in 2015 and is solely though two. these can easily change is we give our polls reporting. >> this one we're not going is it too much further down this road yet. other than a liberal government. just like the conservative number there for a minute. now there is a hundred that in 2015, the only one on nine seats. if they're unable to start pulling in some of the numbers, quitting some of the species in british columbia, that's gonna be a disappointing night for them beyond the fact that they are not forming government. is you see it is so dramatic and these are very tight. >> in the writing is we take those look quickly at the seachange there. up 22 from four years ago when they had ten and they didn't have official party status. where did that 30 plus range we been talking about projected. this still manuel decided then this is one that's going back in 2015 hello again. you have the block and comment, flipping back and forth with them for the liberals again earlier with just kind of the polls reporting that very much to close. one of the writings of the socials that we talk a lot about because there was so much party swapping and jersey swapping and they have a solid lead at this stage in the night anyway. he is the former minister in the government provincially. but he went to the federal liberals because he wanted the healthcare network for seniors, he thought that was the best way to put his main platform.ahead right now, he is leading in social within again again that 450 range and the writings this is what we are watching rosemary. >> i should tell you there's only two trailing in the races at this hour. he only won by a very slim margin in 2015, and dn, magdalene island, she is trailing as well. everyone else is holding. david's got some more results. >> starting in burlington, when we last checked, of 470 vote lead over the conservative contender who is in second place, this is one of the seeds of the conservatives that they went tonight and they need it to break through and so far the liberals are holding this results. the in a row 36 currently out of the michael skinner, i believe this is the, remote from last time. this is another one of the seas and the smaller urban centers in ontario or the conservatives need it to bust through a time when there. slightly ahead. aurora oak ridge richman hills, this one is personal for the liberals. across the horn and dramatic moment to parliament, she is in any vote lead over the liberals only three and 205 vault polls voting. they what the liberals on this one back. then this one for budget reasons. the conservatives are 50 bucks ahead right now and wanted the former ontario liberal health manager, is the reason why this is interesting she left right now is in third place running is an independent. >> british columbia won't determine which will perform which party will take government but they will tell you if it is majority minority. one pole reporting, quick look at longtime nbp and one of these guys who just has so much support in that area. he is leaving very famous broadcaster, in british columbia former broadcaster really charming and will be interesting to see how she does and that writing. in the north writing powell strong nbp tradition. this is an interesting one when we see over the years, and the reform has done well as well a lot of us are wondering to see at the green party will do. but out of all of the vancouver live exists will be the toughest one for the grains in the industrial north island area. >> early results from british colombia, could make or break just what kind of government. for the next little bit, let me show you again we're at over all. liberals leading in a hundred and 43 writings, conservatives now leading in hundred and four and a block is on the board with 30. they started off at ten, damage has been done tonight. and perhaps largely to the mvp do is on the board with 20 at this stage and those are will go back and see where they picked up your calgon when i last checked, they were holding on to just one. and the greens are on the board with one but we are expecting more to come from them on vancouver island has for all of their hopes are. they have however increasing share of the vault by about 9 percent. in fact that could have hurt other parties is we saw that support go ahead. now her cbc news decision s is ready to make yet another call. ♪ canada your next government will be a liberal minority government. we are projecting that at this hour. just entered a wealth is we see in a second mandate is prime minister but his majority from 2015, no longer. and given the way this campaign has unfolded, justin trudeau may indeed need the support of other parties in order to find a way to govern the country. we'll see where these barges go in with the end in order to get that. where is that cooperation would come from and how he's going to get at the lesotho who is with headquarters in montréal and they are watching us behind you. obviously they are still very happy there tonight. >> they are happy here tonight. a loud cheer went out we do made the call, except for it wasn't is loud is when we first projected when there is more to be a liberal government. obviously they were hoping for a majority here but the fact that it is liberal minority government, a little bit of a muted response. the cheers again, they'll switch channels but they are hearing that mostly over the results. liberals here, strategists and insiders, the idea is the win is the better than a lost brother wanted to win and they wanted a majority but they will take the minority and wait and see who will hold the balance of power and who will take after work with to get legislation passed. it's still very happy that what they will return in the government and a little bit more difficult to govern at the appointed time. when is better than a loss. >> will check back with you through the evening of course will hear from justin trudeau. their places we're just to type we don't see the places where the liberals can pick up support so we can't get them to 170. ellison, and we get the close, maybe. and there will be a determining factor in how they governed is a minority government. how high can they get that number and there we're liberals over the past couple of days there we're certainly suggesting 150 and going all of the way up to 160. i would certainly make their lives a little bit easier in a minority government. the last one we saw on liberals on paul martin, liberal minority governments generally tort tend to less between 18 and 24 months. pronounced white government and gives a big picture about how this actually broke down and explain what where we are where we are. smack the way our decision desk is crunching the numbers, it just wasn't in the hearts for majority government. we describe how it comes about this one of them that we have been talking a little bit about course of the evening. historically, essentially never seen a party fall below 38.5 percent and still forum a majority government and it doesn't look to know that this it's not going to be an exception to that role. 36.7 percent of the popular vote. another interesting thing the mvp are down about 5 percent of their vote share the grades are up about 5 percent. let's take those look at the seachange. another way we can mathematically crush this one, the liberals can afford to lose 60 seats over the course of the night right there. it is so little 16 this for a moment. i know it's minus 17 but even just that volatility gives you a little bit of a sense of why it's taken is long is it has for us to make the call that we pay because there are still so monday writings that are little is it too close call in a little is it too close for comfort. his numbers can still go up and down and right now the liberals are outside of that threshold that they need it to be within. in order to forum a majority government which is why we can see quite clearly liberal minority in the cards. >> is dependent on how big that is, right now if you add up the liberals and the mvp, you are is it too away from 170. see can start to see it sorry one away at 19. you can start to see they are going to get people to find ways to buy into whatever it got to do in order to make their governing a little bit easier. not is easy with the majority but the more seats you have to easier associate. see the what happens with the conservatives in ontario that is changed from a liberal majority to a liberal minority. this will get a couple writings and the results are complete yet but give you an indication of a couple writings where who looked your ego, i'm going example rosie of why this is still in progress and it can change. sixty-one vote lead and kim and peter and she won the writing last time around. just before i was to speak the conservatives we're the lead there. adding to this is writings the conservatives help for monday years before my one and 2016. then the lead here is you see with 28 of 200 and24 walls. we can also be need it stronger classes the next time. anyway, conservatives in the lead here. >> i'm get to you guys. i know y'all want to talk about 1972, it's coming. [laughter] or 1985. hang on i need to get more results of coming to you two. hang on. >> provide shade to seize the liberals have broken through the last two) are trailing. historic breakthrough for them and of my election in 2017, but look who's leaving arena, by 1700 votes, the sun, has a 171607 vote lead over the liberal candidate when 45 in 267 - mama aisha, cabinet minister trailing with 25 polls reporti reporting, the conservative candidates. to see said that one last time and in the general, they are trailing now. >> heather has a few mars results. >> i'll be quick. skyline kingmaker, which party would forum government, majority minority. like that ever from the block 33. here's one of the writings. all parties, is the end, for the liberals but leading at this.is 26 -year-old christina michaud, who talks about doing politics differently. actively recruited young members and young candidates very successfully today. hand leading, when he was a by election, beat the liberals is a test of vendor share in his leadership and his attempt to create that bar any nationalist conservatives coalition and seen is a really successful measure of that. again, not lasting and going to the block today, rosemary taking from the conservative and from the liberals is a forum that 33 seat block. >> irate. first i like to talk about 1972, i was born four years later. we will start there. there was wind the majority was reduced to a minority is reset. very tight race with stanfield only to writings apart. it leads you to believe that same comparison, that he could not hold the majority. >> this is the little different. this is closer to 79. >> giving that story. >> seventy-nine hardwoods. four percentage votes lower than the popular votes. twenty or so seats greater but it was a minority government for the conservatives. defeated, nine months later by this guys motion in the house of commons. but, he had to and figure out a way to hold that minority government that's a problem just entered is going to have year. if these numbers are what they are at the end of the evening, they're going change but is there anything like this, he has gotta put together the mvp and the greens and some of the blocks. civic also goes back to your the about the way the country is divided. in that case, it might look a little bit more like 1980. if you don't have much support here in the west, where we hear manitoba, you've got a little bit on the corner but. what about ontario. >> the majority is the majority. in a minority is the minority. it doesn't matter if you have a 1609 seats, if you don't have a majority, you don't have a majority. statement but it's easier. >> not necessarily. you have to govern and i can borrow a phrase from our friend here, you have to govern is if you have a minority. and you have to remember that. >> you can't get is it too cocky. summa have to be pretty close, i almost have a majority. that take you nowhere. you have to govern is if you have a minority. thus the hard truth about tonight. i don't think anybody, that i'm talking to his thinking we're going to win a majority. it's now you playing a different game. it is going to have different consequences. >> they will be framing it today is not, where a few inches short of a majority and they were even staying to us very often the best 20 forms. a buck and a off, they knew that this was anticipated. >> the pretty i'm going about projecting their own things. [laughter] >> and i can.out that yes this is the minority government and yes and maybe the lock will be need it a day-to-day basis but if you think for a second that any of those three oppositions, the black and the greens in the mvp wants to go in an election anytime soon, or that there is a topic that like you and the shears,. [inaudible conversation] on the horizon and the conservatives, ask themselves some serious questions. where they go from here. >> that's where i want to go, to talk to katie before we dig into that little bit more. how does the prime minister lead a minority government and what happens to andrew scheer. barrette went away conservatives leading, direct meeting and elected intent, maybe that deals the concerns cory has. with them and their katie. katie: rosie, i think right now, every time the bring up a conservative candidate that's been elected, there is a been a little bit of applause here but for the most part there are hundreds and hundreds of people in this room and it is mostly a pretty sight it in the moment that the news projected a liberal government, and so on. weather it be a majority or minority, was on the big screen behind me and is soon you declared rosie, they change the channel and they are the crowded and the room was completely silent. this is obviously a disappointing result for andrew scheer. the next questions are going to be not well. does the party with the most seats get to govern. janice gets up and tried to fight that seed the conservatives have one more season the liberals, they were going to try plow through it from the government. that question now appears to be completely out the window at the state and the question will be for andrew here does he continue on with later. will he get to a seat count where his colleagues and his caucus will be comfortable with him leaving the helm into the next election. and it's going to be a minority government so who knows when that is going to happen. but at this., one thing to be watching for are the mckay his of the world, are the tools of the world, are those people who possibly have an interest in leading this party into the future, they start to assess their options. >> thinks that katie. >> i would see there trying to assess their options to a sicko. cory plus get your assessment. he's content, while 11 season of zumba now. leading an elective from what they had in 2015. how would the conservatives respond to that. >> i think we want to see what happens with the rest of the evening before we jump is it too deep into those waters. i will see this, that for minority parliament situations that we are talking about, very much agree with the things that ray said, but haven't is a matter but i would add to that this may be a very stable minority government even if it is a minority government because i think the mvps are going to be broke. i think the block have no real incentives to go back to the poll. and we'll see how the rest of the night unfolds but you can have multiple parties and leadership contacts with weather it is a conservatives them are the green party or what may come of past. it could be a very stable minority government for quite some time is a result of that. >> closely with numbers and up before we start determining what happens to enter share and weather the conservative party was to give him another ticket. the use of goodies for the leader. right now we can confirm that he has been elected in the writing is lee shown b. he was previously in mma. it a representative in the national assembly and to beckon 2008 and in 2012, this is his first foray into federal politics. and he has, it would seem largely rebuilt the blood of call was wiped out in 2011 in large part anyway by the mvp and they had no official party status in 2011 and the leader at the time, also lost. so this is the big return for the block, largely due to the leaders who can claim a victory here. let's go to montréal, the leblanc headquarters where allison is there was some reactions. allison: [inaudible conversation] [background sounds] what you make of the results. >> coming back to a cultural and uprising and the anger towards the public founding his the petroleum industry and people are quite angry about that so into back, and is transforming into a need. for her name and me, a writer and a director, but the her name back into the cultural we need some. >> was made for the block to have is monday potentially, the number of seats that we are seeing now telling what has now. >> we are going to be buried in work. [inaudible conversation] 2015, we are all going to be dead in 2050. we have to act now, the climate urgency. also a cultural urgency. we need this in montréal. >> thank you. lots of excitement there. in the headquarters in montréal. i'm going to bring in some analysis. megan also with you. mvp elected in 21 right now, a lot of them have been lost in québec. i can see one little spot there. not sure where that is. someone will come in my ear and tummy. what is this tell you and what you make of sort of worries analysis that the mvp really can't afford another election anytime soon. >> resume i actually think we are completely missing the mark on this conversation. >> tell me oh my god don't let that happen. >> we talked about what leaders should or should not resign. look at this map, the voters are sending us a message. and we've been talking about how nobody really gets enthusiastic about voting for minority we're making little jokes about how are people going to the polls they don't even know, nobody really cares. >> baloney. look at this map, they voted for yvonne. the people in fedora, voted for chief rudy terrill. and jennifer for another. >> for climate change. >> no. they didn't get representation and they are forcing cooperation on us. that's what's happening here. they're telling us that we have to figure it out. they didn't get it through corrupt so there showing us at the ballot bucks. these are highly motivated voters. >> is the appointment to my.around climate change, would you boys also wanted to talk about. you could also read the map that way. these are countries who are wheeling and prepared to fight climate change and perhaps ask for something more aggressive than the liberals we're doing. they have this half of the country and a little down here this is no more. >> we are a country averages and it's kind of doesn't make sense that we work. but we do. people are voting for their beliefs and their values and their regions and their local economies. snack on the point, my habits at cross country checkup dies hard. i like to listen to what canadians are having to see. i'm getting a lot of people who are responding in talking about proportional representation and frustrations that they had with the reform. a tweet i have a lot more enthusiastic tweet about this and which i had a reformed electoral system in which i could vote. clearly there are people who we're frustrated. the justin trudeau reneged on the problem on electoral reform. and perhaps what we are seeing here is committing sending a message that they want to see cooperation. anyone looking at the great numbers, they been about eight or 910 percent and at the moment they only have one seat. >> that stephen was aired out leaving more than a thousand in. but they have thought that that went out first the path. it's hard to be a conversation that depends on where you are going in terms of electoral reform. i don't know that there's going to be enough pressure on anyone to do that this time around frankly. okay, i'll bring you up-to-date on one more elective. >> i agree with you but the only parties that would advocate for right now is the mbp and the parents. hang on i just have to do this. enter share has been reelected and can tell, the conservative labor leader has this to be his six consecutive quinn and construction for selected third 2000 for an easy win for him. first elected at edge 25 has been a politician really for most of his live. so he has that good news now. >> is nice to have this conversation. but it's not coming back. the liberals and the conservatives, are not buying in and it will not be a topic. i watched a progressive government would do elected oral reform. i think a lot of people did vote for the mbp would not think that would go back in election over electoral reform. >> of god no. hang on. >> frankly degrades the mbp are not even staying that. they refused to state but the conditions are for a minority government would be but he is by the electrical reform bill own housing. clearly said in the spring that her number one thing was climate. not electoral forum. >> megan just wasn't right. i'm just teasing you. [laughter] >> cooperation. >> that's when a minority government yes they want you to cooperate with better results. we are seeing something interesting here. all my friends in northern canada wondering where they were. ian will tell us some of those results. >> their very colorful and huge writings and very early results. let's look at each of the three northern writings in canada beginning with nunavut, if the abc's we're able to hang on here, this would be a gain for them. talk to her bureau and accountant to get the proper pronunciation. that is a fanatic that i got. just in case anyone is wondering where you came from. pressure is circa one vote lead at this. we see the liberals in a pretty big lead here more than double the mbp who are in second place and the final, northern inviting is yukon again pretty early here the one we have, just one pole of 91 reporting the conservatives in the lead in yukon. scott early results are really doing to make sure that all fours and canadians so that we haven't forgot about that. or watching but we are just getting up slowly. >> three writings of prominent women in, all who are losing right at this time in different stages of honey want to start and milton where adam is in the gold medal position on the podium with 1100 vote lead over deputy national leader of the conservative party lisa rice. where to onto the next writing of markham solo, he is leading the liberals liberals 3160 votes are the conservatives, and third, jane will follow the former health administered, for the lib oral and speaking of levin, vancouver, writing the can be summarized is fnc wtf is going to happen. heaven is an threat in the early writings, early results, 39 vote lead with the conservatives and second this is going to be all about those and supposed to be highlighted in early in the night and british columbia. >> that's great. i want to give you an update and a bunch of cabinet ministers two. ralph, john, joyce, all trailing writings at this hour. try to bring you up-to-date but just far is we can. spak i think this is on the positive and what the liberals we're thinking especially towards this weekend. they could achieve particularly because of the gates they felt they had made in ontario. at this juncture this is another results the conservatives we're hoping for. they had a wide range of projections and again coming into this week and they did feel that they lots of ground in material leads, but because of the insurgency around that message while splitting our strategic voting on whatever you want to call it. there was a lot of, they felt like there was a chance to loophole of optimism that perhaps it did not have to remember back in 2015 we do can feel three days out it was a done deal. i didn't have that same census time. this would be a very disappointing result for the summit i hope this isn't an appropriate but someone just texted me this really sucks. >> it's not inappropriate at all. i was expecting more powerful language more frankly. >> will never surrender. that's what you are supposed to see and more. [laughter] >> i'm just being reminded here about sharing out and since i know 34 and a off for the liberals and 33 for the conservatives which would be a i'm going night for the pollsters if that we're me in tonight. >> look at the numbers on the board. is a split what, the receipts between the liberals in the conservatives and yet only.have of vote. it's entirely possible the way these numbers are coming in. that's going to be even closer than that on the popular vote. >> it will be. and the number to keep your eye on is what gets you to 170. how you make it to 170 and can you do it with one party or do you have to rely on other parties. >> we just declared we didn't need to report this or worry about it. >> the problem is if you are thinking about how you manage this government, honey make sure that is stable and works, i agree entirely with what is been said about the need for cooperation. i think your style of government this would have to be cooperative and listening but you've also got a huge challenge in terms of the pipeline issue and climate change issue indigenous issues and go down the list to save these are challenging for governments and it's going to be an interesting time. i have is much stability is possible. i don't think it's 20 be a coalition or anything like that but but i think it's going to be minority government. >> results for the greens here. they made some other inroads. let's start in ontario. >> michelle you know the green party is doing well. nope for to go to elizabeth. she is leaving there over the liberals by 30 votes at this stage. let's go to another first round out here this is also not surprising smith, the bye election that the one recently with paul manley, he is leading and thus bring you back all of the way to the east coast mouse in fredericton where there is a significantly now for the real party in fredericton by more than 1500 votes in that writing. so definitely leaning towards being elected but we are waiting for some advance supposed to be counted in fredericton before we make a call there. in her for my friend andrew. i writing eyes. >> filed. [laughter] >> but the computer away. [laughter] >> be lost, on present forum, the pulses been dead on on this. they're both going to finish with less than a third of those in this never happened in our history of the country. both of them ought to be taking the serious lessons particularly the conservatives. this was a winnable election for them. spike to talk about the failings of vendors years is a leader, there should be discussions of that. but if you look at the platform, that was a failure of vision, the platform, it they are still stuck in this base first strategy with him try to expand the base or they don't try to reach out to voters that just read jenna the people they already have. if they don't start rethinking that they're going to start their going to repeat this. >> they can't grow the base. >> the problem the liberals have is the one on the left is just scanning all of the place. back-and-forth integrates in the bucks. the problem this conservatives have is they have a very solid base but they cannot grow it and they don't seem to try. >> would do they do to try. that's what i was wondering through the whole campaign. why for god sakes can't they try and why is that the boogie man. >> it's not just the issue is what it symbolizes. there is a whole range of issues. the conservatives don't want the smarty-pants both. they don't want to appeal to people for that kind of vote. that's fine, the going on that. but there is a lot more people in cities than there are the countries and a growing proportion of population in the university educated and those people keep locking themselves up from that both are going to keep getting these results. >> confirming out maxine, leader of the people's party of canada has lost his seat tonight and the conservatives peeling it away with their candidate and he has one by 38.9 percent of the over 28, they can see more than 2000 votes. they're taking that away from maxing tonight. pretty devastating for the later of that party remember, said the door the conservatives after losing the leadership and said that they were morally bankrupt and he was going to forum his party and he was going to forum his party and have candidates across the country and stick it to the conservatives in a didn't when his own seat tonight. in fact is only registering 1.6 percent of the vote for the people's party across the entire country of canada. >> all just quickly comment for that. that's good news. he spent basically a generation trying to unite the conservatives and is splintered again, something that is very unhealthy. that said, i think this should be some soul-searching and reflection on how that situation came to be. and bring those folks back in the polls because a lot of them are party activists and people who are of i'm going faith you want to print the country. >> is the party dead now. >> i think dead for the people's party, makes it much harder for us to continue and might take those little while. it's pretty hard if you don't have a seat house. that said with all due respect to the comment. i think a lot of examples of conservative parties, than to reach out beyond the base, i think one of the challenges is hating on your opponent, only get you so far in this business. you have to actually present a positive view of something else you going to do. like talking about the unfortunate let's talk about that little bit. kathleen wynne was one of the most unpopular politicians from the history of falling. if we just talked about how bad she is we would not have elected government and we're elected, and the four oh 16 the nine to five would put together a substantial work of majority in the just hanging on the other guy is never enough. i appreciate that.i think is true i don't think it's true that the conservative party is inherently trying to alienate the smarty-pants votes or any of that, i think there's an interesting i'm going faith to try to reach out to everybody. just some people do it in a better way and some people do it in the worst way. the better way is the way you want to do it. >> per se that did not happen here. i can bring in their total vot votes. i can use is and how monday canadians voted for them. the perennial file problem began expanded, if all you can do is try to destroy the others in offenses or, and you sort of stuck. >> should be the last election that anybody that believes he can win that went out having a serious plan for climate change. because of the issue with you this year and a decade ago, he will be larger in the next election. in the conservatives do not take from what happened tonight, the failure to try, for some voters they're not even i can take a hearing of that position. then they will have more nights like tonight. >> two things. mr. here could've addressed a lot of the handicaps that happen in this campaign. priests positioning himself explaining his antiabortion position of the summer, perhaps using different language. same marriage. a lot look at this and see i do not see myself in your party. on the flight was tough, and handicap is so may people know verna actually don't believe that the conservative party should have climate plan. you may times in a i'm going door knocking and calvary told, climate change, politically correct. is it too far left on this issue. on the pbc, i think that is a maximum 30 party he's a leader. >> ago. i'm gonna bring some people some newsprint prime minister now said the second time justin trudeau has been reelected. maslow give him that man. not make him wait any longer, he's been elected there now four times. first elected in 2008 and of course became the liberal party leader six years ago and here he has clenched onto his old running with a lead of 1200 votes. entertain going to bring us some more info on that. sooner let me give you a snapshot of how the liberals did across the country because it really shows you the performance and particularly where they are lacking. they are down in double digits in every single province in this country except ontario and québec. perhaps where it mattered most. so if you are wondering, how could you be down so much across the country and yet still manageable into a hundred and 53 seats. the key to stopping the bleeding, in effect was the way in the performance. on terror the conservatives, they need it to do much better than they did in those two provinces in particular. they actually did quite well. exceeding the double digits but ontario and québec we're the only marginal gains. what happens to the liberals here, yeah almost like a death by a thousand cups but in nine different provinces. the newfoundland and nova scotia and québec, and ontario and manitoba and alberto, british columbia. >> but not down significantly in places with the most seats. so if you lose a bunch of poin points, the same kind of damage. everybody was in but i just want to go to our canada watch party to get a reaction to the results from everybody over there. >> looking at a liberal minority government and ic of blue and alberto. one unconfirmed nbc seat right now. the mayor of calgary, look at the map. what is the name for alberto. >> i am super happy, other people talking about alberta. unit seven the mark [laughter] i would really disagree with what i just heard, is part of the problem is in alberta his are absent because after pinning the economic engine for so very long we feel like our issues are being ignored and that we are being caricatured is people who don't believe in climate change or that is to left that is not the case at all. the issue is the economy across the country is firing on all cylinders except in l verna which should be the engine of the country and we keep staying give us some help here and have us think about diversifying our economy is part of our energy sector to get those pipelines built instead of talking about it so much and we feel often that we are just screaming into the vacuum. >> liberals pipeline. is that not enough to get alberta out of sight. >> a lot of folks don't trust. some conspiracy there is, they wanted to shut down. if they wanted to shut it down, they could've just shut it down. the point is that hasn't been built yet. we do combine it with those, it makes it difficult to build any major infrastructure project including the pipeline. in the future, you can see why people are getting frustrated. i think that what needs to happen with this, alone people we're very worried about this outcome, they said this will be the end of trans men. it better not be because the conservatives want that happen. the prime minister general have to fight his funds moving forward on things that really matter to people. >> the editor in chief, and more. and more: we have two newspapers and alberto and two in ontario. i think i can see, the people in ontario by and large, really don't get it. the reason why, no one is hearing them. >> why not. >> someone on talk radio yesterday, we're talking about liberal strategist thing alberta wines all of the time and it's always been like that. there's always been alienation. not like this and not ever. >> they like to complain all the time we're also secretly very proud of being the engine of canada and be invited canadians to alberta. >> that sounds like indigenous people. >> there's certainly feeling like now and time of need, everyone just says we are whining. that's very deep and is very real. it gone back to the electrical asked her the way it was pre- 2015, saw a huge change, but there's something much deeper here that i can feel every day and it's going to take a lot a very frank conversation to figure out how to move forward. >> canyon talk to me about indigenous communities. >> speaking of frank conversations, i think that this blue way, is troubling for monday indigenous people that are looking for deep and meaningful consultation on trans mountain. we can see what we want about three and informed consent with the truth is that indigenous people in canada weather this pipeline or any other issue we're economically starved out of the reality in canada. . . . if you want to bring everyone together and have an adult discussion [inaudible] you stop saying how do you do it and make the time. the there are some that have not can i ask when you see this map and this kind of decision in this country, what do you think, what is the first thing that pops in your head? >> i don't know that ic division ai seedivision as much of a mese that it's not identity politics that people were really looking at the platform and you hear they were enamored with the platform war than the conservative but it was substantiated and a bad judgment call to be focused on leadership rather than a policy. canadians are starved for substance and that is the message. >> back to you. >> thanks, everybody over there, for weighing in. a couple things, the vote for the conservative conservatives s at 33 pennies for the liberals and 33.9 for the conservatives. so if that isn't a tie, i don't know what is. certainly we know that it has resulted in more speeds but the poll has shown to be pretty accurate. ian has some more result. >> drilling down into the city of toronto, and you see a lot of red. i want to take a look at a couple of writings there were some different thoughts and campaigns that they hoped they would be able to pick up. they are down from 44 now to 24 seats. the vote share down 5%. they squared off in 2015 only 40 polls reporting and you start to see the separate away. two maybe three times i want to say because andrew cash is a strong candidate i want to go to hannah at the headquarters in british columbia. what are people telling you, 24, 25 writenow on the board, the food to share down, so if you start off with expectations this doesn't look terrible tonight but it's a lot less when he was booted out. >> absolutely but if you look at the numbers if i look at the screen right now but if you add that to the liberals 157, that could mean they could have a balance of power if the liberals want to work with them on certain things. but we heard them saying earlier in the campaign he laid out the priorities to help and that includes everything from the national plan, cell phone, internet bills as well as action on climate so those are the type of things if you look at the platforms of the parties it seems like it could be something that those parties could work on together. i suspect when he comes out this is going to be a win for him. we went into the campaign saying that he may not even be paying a visual party status but as 12 seats in the house of commons. you go past that and he has exceeded the expectations going into it and now with that type of power in a minority scenario, i think when it comes to saying he's going to be pretty happy about that. >> he did a lot worse than i did. i don't think that is going to happen. >> obviously i imagine we lost an interesting dynamic that that's an interesting position where he is going to be able to be propositional and work with the liberals and figure out how do we do this and what are they doing to make it work and whether it's housing or action on climate change is going to be an interesting time on issues. it's not just going to be standing up, people are going to see action on issues. >> if we look at the screen they've crept back up to 160 so they are now in the place where they don't really need a coalition and they can look around for where they want to find support there is a splash of red it's just not the one we are used to seeing. so let's drill down. that is the largest in the province. last time the closest race, the two main contenders are fantastically oppressive, female indigenous leaders. but right now in the lead, early going. if that is the one splash of red, that means ralph goodale's writing. going through the tenth term but he is facing some strong head winds at this point. and the sentiment there has been a big third-party campaign against him, really nasty billboards, lost by 10,000 votes four years ago he is in the lead so we are not going to take our eyes off that very much. >> i know a lot of people were worried about ralph caddell heading into tonight and threw in some extra resources and tried hard to try to keep him seeing the conservatives are pulling away what do you make of what has happened? >> i spoke to him tonight at 5:00 and he was ready for the battle. i think the thing that is interesting is that result as opposed to some others is very high, 1500 votes, plus this wo work. voting bad idea and a bad idea to understand what the consequences of this are. we lost a very fine person for saskatchewan. i hope the vote comes back, but terrific guy. >> regularly called to minister. >> he's like a player on a baseball team you can put him in any position and ask him to do anything. and he is an extraordinary parliamentarian. >> vaccine is starting to emerge and respond to the results tonight that haven't performed at all in his writing. he lost the vote int and the por vote isn't good either. this would be about right, let's listen in losing his own seats tonight. >> [speaking french] transpac today that people have decided on someone else. i accept with humility and i want to congratulate the new member [speaking french] [applause] [speaking french] what they did is not in vain. what we have managed to accomplish in only one year is spectacular we heard more than 350 candidates running across the country. they showed extraordinary courage and passion in defending our principles and values. they did that despite the shameful attacks from our opponents. in order to offer the canadian voters an option based on principles in a different option from all of those on display in a movement that is only getting started. [applause] they gave their support to the people's party today. we are the party that is building the fastest they supported the people's party today. we are the fastest growing political party in history and we will continue to grow in the coming months and years. the issue is we raised during this will not disappear. on immigration, endless deficits, unfair, different policies, high taxes, all these problems will not disappear. and we will be there to criticize the government and offer better solutions. we will be there to criticize the next government and offer better solutions. we will continue to fight for liberty, responsibility, equity and respect. we will be stronger than next time. we will continue to fight for freedom, responsibility, fairness. >> that is maxine responding to the loss of his own seat and extremely bad performance on the part of the people's party of canada. he was saying that this is the beginning of a conversation that they will continue to hold the government in check. very hard to see how you do that when you haven't even elected your own seat. and the candidates that he did manage to find have now lost all of their deposits, so they may not be thrilled with you or want to work with you anymore so we will see if they want to reach out to them but i'm not sure that they have much of a future. >> arriving where they had representative for long time she lives in ottawa currently that he was the mp before there are two cabinet ministers said he has now been defeated and they are trailing. going down to defeat well behind in calgary center so the former cabinet minister did the debate could be noted for some conduct issues is defeated by the conservatives and the rematch he's behind by more than 2,000 votes so this creates a scenario where we are projecting a liberal government. they may not have liked the majority government that they have a seat at the cabinet table and people in the caucus. right now we are coming back with no representation in the government whatsoever. >> let's talk about that a little bit. what does that mean they have an opponent to work off of -- >> this is exactly what they were hoping would not happen. this is exactly propping them up possibly into takes us back to what ryan was talking about in the pipeline and it's going to be a make or break issue from the perspective of many. it's going to be a very frustrating evening for the blue cross province. when i was there it sounds extreme, but in other parts of canada, you may not understand the depths of the frustration and economic downturn right now. >> they did go out as a part of the last-ditch effort to show that he is going to pay attention to them and now has to do that even more. he has no representation. >> on this issue, i understand the concerns and i've seen them when i was in calgary. for the politics of dissent that simple. you need to stop the expansion because if it ever came to a vote, it isn't a voting issue, by the way, but if it came to a confident vote presented by one of those parties, they would vote with the liberals. so it isn't in play as a result of the collection. >> have to find a way to make it in play and i don't know how you back out of it. >> this creates a very interesting problem. without ralph caddell as a minister does he pick somebody to represent the western interest but bargain the environment and the economy that went hand in hand doesn't seem to be reflected. i went doorknocking in calgary and to so many people who voted liberal in 2015 z. we cannot vote liberal again and people who thought that they might vote liberal, every single person refused to give their name. they were afraid to identify. one woman told me her home had been vandalized when she declared herself a supporter. there is a group think afraid of identifying themselves with that being said, i was with the prime ministeprimeminister and the ley called an two days ago in calgary. our system doesn't reflect what people vote for. >> even bigger than that if you look at the rally that happened in edmonton just a few days ago where thousands of people appeared, many of them were young but i still think it shows something about what's happening what we get is the west is blue yet there's 20% of the population that votes liberal but doesn't the representation. they've got the same number votes but they will get one tenth of the seats. we are creating a distortion of the country actually looks like. we have deep divisions as it is but it makes us look worse and feel more with each other. they group their vote on the basis of the regional and we reap what we sow. >> they have 69% of the votes in alberta. they were clearly happy when the liberal government was declared but they were disappointed that it doesn't look like they will be returning as a member of parliament. it's been a difficult campaign so even though he's well known he was a three term city counselor, edmonton cabinet minister and were th for the iss surrounding the semi popular bills into the expansion and holding of it contributing to the hostility it is more reluctant speaking to what we were talking about a few moments ago they didn't want to identify the supporters. maybe the supporters didn't come out and there isn't a whole lot of love in some areas thanks for that. the liberals western woes combine and they are trailing. this was a surprise when the next one is for the liberals and the surprise vote. 25,000 votes i believe we are going to take a look now in the suburbs of vancouver they said they only had a shot at mitt romney and it looks like it's reverting back to the pattern now third place with 1152 running as an event that would be all about the final poll they would appreciate that, that's fair to say. two things to pick up on just as duncan pointed out it is a good win in that province and it's more a problem for the prime minister as this isn't just a joke. it isn't perceived by people in this part of the country because it exists there. in this situation they will not feel represented in government in much of any capacity. >> i don't know if that exists i know we've been in darker places but it is something more pronounced and a little bit of new. i just quickly want to say that is not it's not a great outcomer them at this point. they were hoping they were showing them anywhere from 30 to 35 seats. i was going to bring that up because they haven't brought back any of the writing that they were seeking. they were not pulling out all the stops in british columbia. i think they are only leaving right now in one seat in québec. i agree i think this is a hard night and just because you start off nowhere and get to 23, how do you keep them, just because you hope it will get better? >> to be fair to him from his performance in the campaign did seem to captivate his own base like a lot of the voters i think, and i'm not an expert on this, but they will be looking at the impact which was don't vote for them because it is essentially going to keep conservatives in. i don't know the degree of impact of the things. maybe it was exaggerated. i don't know but i just know that outcome wasn't one -- >> i realized most of the seats transferred from them to the blog and it's fair to also ask whether québec was ready for a person of color to be leaving a party and whether that was an issue across the country. he ran before he became this miracle worker the situation with respect to resource problems we are going to build a pipeline and engage seriously on climate change. i don't think you have to say it's with respect to building the pipeline for all kinds of reasons. and we have to work at that. the whole country has to understand these projects have to take on a national element. the second thing is i think that it would be a terrible mistake for people to start questioning leadership. i think it's a terrible mistake because it is the first election and in my opinion he did far better than anybody expected him to do at the beginning of the campaign. and there's enough to contribute to in our national life. he has had one campaign. you can't keep eating people alive after they've had one. >> i have to put the leadership does more i wanted to but i hae to share this result because we have one of the candidates stepping by your fundamental. we've worked there together. there is one of the close ones i expected it to be closer we get a really good team that is amazing everybody that i've worked with this is a campaign that will define how you are supposed to run really good campaigns. >> you will be the mp going forward. what are your thoughts tonight? >> i know that i have big shoes to fill, she is a good mp and we've had conversations over the last couple of months. i hope that we can sit down for lunch and talk about it and talk about a little bit of the planning. it was a good idea to make sure when there was a transition and i hope that that is possible. it is quickly growing. i've lived there my whole life and grew up down the street i would offer the advice we have another leader right now and it is elizabeth may elected as the mp this is now her third time starting in 2011, 2015 so the green party leader holding onto her seat, not a surprise but certainly confirms that she can hang around if it is a pretty big margin as well. she can decide where she wants to go. those two holes in his government, that is a huge problem. he's got to address that in some fashion in the speech. it's a big speech for him and he's got to address that in some fashion to try to connect with the people. second, we haven't really talked about it, justin has had a terrible last year and a half. it was awful if he is the prime minister at the end of the night. it's those fall debates are small accomplishment given what he's up against. >> that would reflect back to some of the things conservatives have said. if you can't take down a guy that has had a very difficult six or seven months as conservative leaders, where would your opportunity to. there are some obvious weaknesses. i think it is the culmination of a bunch of thing. but whether there is a leadership review or not, i certainly understand. i think there is a case to be made but in terms of errors, whatever happens it will be decided at some point if there were problems in the campaign. those are the kind of things when you draw contrast you are also drawing it with herself. >> heather has a big result and i want to get to that. let's take a look at this. these are the final numbers formerly president and most recently campaign manager. i'm going to get in trouble if i starts listing off those names that you will forgive me if i don't go any further down the list. but i just want you to know that when you get into a political campaign, you develop a very close bonding and it's very intense for those 40 days but i have been so fortunate that it's not just a 40 day temporary thing. i have gained from this experience and all the other campaigns that have gone before a huge body of deep personal friends and i want you to know whatever transpires in the future that i will always treasure those deep personal friendships and the bonds that tie this together because they have been built out of mutual respect and trust, commitment to principles and ideals it's a little bit more for the people that we had the obligation to represent in this writing. i think the further mandates that they have given me in the past and all of you and all of the other volunteers that you represent for working so very hard to make that possible. from this day forward, let's remember any one campaign is only temporary. there will be new challenges to face there will be opportunities for all of us not just to separate our friendship and victories elsewhere but to reassemble to celebrate the rejuvenation and recovery and victory once again a class act i think it is fair to say she's the public safety minister first elected to parliament in 1974 as the only member to have served. he was also first in line after the prime minister to assume his duties which is a critica the cl role and he's also the campaign cochair, part of the trust that crafted the platform that had gotten them back into the government but mostly one of those moments you think about someone's career it happens to everybody. it's part of politics and that's why you don't see him up there sobbing because he's been around long enough to know it doesn't make it easier for liberals tonight were any easier for him. >> it can't hurt and there can be tears for sure it is a shame to lose him and his voice in the house of commons. there are few other voices, another example i think even the conservative party losing her voice is important. >> could use all of the liberal probleliberalproblem in the wesg ralph goodall in the senate, could you do something like that? c. was up against a very difficult situation. there is no shame in that i ande has an immense amount of talent and wisdom, thoughtfulness and never afraid to tell you that isn't very good or what did you do that for because you have to have people around you who tell you those things rather than say everything is fantastic. not just that he lands on his feet for the people that make a contribution like he has made our recognized for what they can do because he has a tremendous amount to contribute. >> michael was a senator for the conservatives and they were happy to put them into cabinet. he may have to be a little less orthodox about how he's done in the senate because he's going to have to figure out practicality to prevail. >> that's all he has to do. [inaudible] coming up with ideas to represent western canada. western canada. >> i first started covering him in the early 1970s. this isn't the first time he's lost he was 93 before he came back and there was another thing about his public service that we tend to forget. he was scapegoated in the middle of the 06 election. when they launched the investigation in the middle of the campaign i can't remember what it was about. after the investigation he was proven. >> there was some irony that he ended up and it worked out for him. i want to get somebody to weigh in because she was sort of the equivalent of what we are talking about here at first i want to tell you the independent vc on the board, still not elected by pleading now i but la tight race in vancouver grandville. she has now pulled ahead by only 199 votes so this isn't over yet, 27% of the vote. it's very, very tight in this race. so we will continue to watch and see what happens but let's turn it back as we just heard from adam vancouver and the deputy leader and someone who could have had some point the conservative party so that would be very upset in the conservative party tonight. >> one would hope that they would be upset because while this party doesn't call itself progressive anymore, she was part of the progressive bridge building that they need if they are going to expand. it's not going to be good enough just to go back. but throughout the campaign, but i never understood is why he didn't run advertising. he needed to showcase something other than just himself and she would have been someone that you really want to showcase. they don't have to like each other there's a lot of talent but wasn't used properly and that contributes. they did a lot of the public speaking. he's the one that basically cleaned up the mess in late august frankly i think it's like this year's megan leslie she had no doubt she was going to keep her writing and felt he was one of the top in the country all for not and the writing had been changed and didn't need to worry about the people from the suburbs and what has become and campaigning for other conservative candidates and then came home and they had leapfrogged ahead of her. >> to pick up on both of the points, it is actually a big loss for the sheer by the conservative party. andrew david trust lisa as opposed to the other people that ran against him for the conservative leadership and useful that for about. she was very often the public space of the party and the person they put on any panel. they thought she was very effective at delivering their message. this is a big loss on a number of front for the party as a whole on the progressive side of things and with female voters but also shows they did have a big issue particularly with female voters who were not necessarily thrilled with the other option. particularly if you are looking at expanding the bases. >> also supersmart on all sorts of things. >> she clearly lost the team in ability to communicate the public profile and it may be a contributing factor system somethings we have seen tonight. the person who got 49% of the vote in the leadership was driven out of the party. you have a number of others that led the race for most of the race not in the party, the social conservatives not everyone cup of tea, not mine, but still part of the party but not in the caucuses anymore. i think that there is a fence building bridge mending caucus that has to go on after one of these kind of races that is inclusive and about an important thing. >> lisa is standing by with our reporters will get some reaction to how lisa is feeling tonight. >> absolutely, rosemary. a big upset here tonight edging out how are you feeling tonight after this? >> there's a lot of people who never make it into the house of commons and i have been so privileged to be there. it isn't the way and that we wanted to have this evening, but i am among my friends and family and everyone so we are going to turn it into a celebration of what we have been able to accomplish. >> what do you think happened, considering you have been representing folks here for the last 11 years? >> i think there's going to be a lot of thought put into what this election ends and where it went, but that isn't for tonight. is it for tonight. tonight is thanking them for 11 years and wishing adam vancouver well as the next and thanking all of my volunteers this evening. i will let them address the nation later on tonight to talk about with the conservatives plan on doing that it's locally and it's going to say about local. >> the liberals did put on quite a strong campaign here. >> we fought them street by street and house by house and we had so many volunteers out today. but the spoken and quite frankly the voter always get it right so thank you for a living ears. i am really honored and wish at him the best. >> in here as a part of that is it possible to talk about the region talking about what is now being known as the fourth factor. how do you think that played into this? >> i'm thinking quite frankly about all the polls that we have and there's going to be a lot of information locally that we will be able to take a look at. but they are excited they wanted to vote for adam vancouver as a liberal and not for me and that is how the results came out. i'm not going to put too much worry into what happened. i know my team was strong and they put in a fantastic campaign. i won't change anything we did. i'm proud of them and my family and the support i got and for what they've given me for 11 years. >> there you have it, rosemary, that was lisa who was defeated tonight in a big upset by the liberals. >> thanks for that. you might want to hand back over because now i'm going to do something that might make her upset a little bit but it's not supposed to because she was very classy there which i could never be in another reason i could never be a politician, i would be a bitter loser. but last, when you lost -- i'm sorry, when you los we lost in m going to ask lisa when you lost in 2015, you came on politics and still the host of that show, and you haven't lost and lisa came on the show and she said a bunch of lovely things about you and you tear it up. she's not going to do it so now i'm going to let you repay the favor. she is going to take it. >> i'm handing it over right now. >> no pressure on anybody. i'm just reminding megan of the kind of speech that you gave when she lost and megan happens to be here now so let's see what happens. as she starts to listen, she's so graceful and i think it is a great reminder that this isn't a game, these are real people, people with their name on the ballot, volunteers to work to get them elected. we can see you here and you have you have just been such a strong voice for women from a conservative women, i am really proud of you, i'm proud to be your friend and you are just the most graceful person, and i love you. >> were so sweet. the only reason i agreed to go on with you right now is because i knew that you were there and watching. you did a fabulous job and i appreciate your kind words and support before hand. but that's what happens. i'm proud of the 11 years i've been able to be in the house of commons. >> you should be. call me and we will go out for a drink. local matchmaking on tv. you are always a good sport and i concur. very classy act. i know we will see you again. good to see you tonight. it's a good moment. this is a good moment to probably show you where women have done tonight. 97 women candidates and this is what it looks like right now on the board. the liberals have elected 52 so they are up to in fact they have improved upon their fortunes from the last time around, so if justin trudeau wants to make a balanced cabinet like last time he has a lot to choose from there. the conservatives are up for as well. they have elected or they are reading, but the total, nine more women right now, look slick they are heading into the parliament hill. you may have lost a good one, but they picked up some as well. so, that is an important part of trying to change the face of politics as well. where are we going to go now? >> you talk about justin wanting to have women in his cabinet. look at what happens to change its tonight. she is not going to succeed i ts campaign was about a matter of trust and truth. unfortunately, running as an independent is pretty difficult when you don't have the support of the party machine or the resources and so, we are talking about smart women, strong women. everyone would recognize that. standing on principle in the sm. we have one independent on the board leaving only by a small margin when we last checked in with her in vancouver and we will continue to track how she does tonight as an independent. it's an interesting race. it's a three way race as we have seen no up and down. having done doorknocking in that region as well and if i spent all summer doorknocking. those that are bleeding and are basically liberals, so it isn't a huge surprise that the conservatives are doing very well in that. just it seems to me the elephant in the room tonight we talked up the investigation. this campaign began with an rcp investigation. we talked about the tory needed to expand their base and there s another part that needs to expand. the liberals are going to finish a smaller share than the conservatives did. a big part of that is i think due to the appearance of a minister as a result of that. now in a minority parliament, he now doesn't control the majority or the committees. i think we are going to be hearing a lot more once the parliament resumes. i don't think this is over by a long shot. >> of course [inaudible] [laughter] he's right about that. i mean, i think this is one of the ways i think the print mr. is going to have to dig down deep in terms of the human process and what he has to say about what took place. we didn't really have a chance to deal with the report. but olson told her that we really don't know. but there's no question it won't hurt the liberal party. as we were heading into the election. but i also think that it's an issue that plays out differently in different parts of the country, and we need to understand that and we are going to be looking at a house that is going to have a very strong representation from québec that is going to be looking at some of these issues in a very different way. that is a reality we are all going to have to deal with. >> on a number of occasions and in a number of debates it said it had no interest in going after that and that he was actually offended that it would become a thing because that is his position in québec. >> it's also the premier's position that they should be offered the remediation agreement you can agree or disagree that the dynamics of this parliament are not going to be conducive to the rekindling. >> we have others besides just the parliament, we have the attempt to launch the inquiry before the election started and unable to talk. i'm definitely not relitigate in that many months of my life. david cochrane. >> oncochran. >> one more point to bring into this [inaudible] the fallout of it as they are going to this caucus, one of the things that gets exposed about the print mr.'s office and the way that he ran it wasn't in the outreach, there wasn't enough relationship building. which he admitted. >> look at what is happening now with a minority government situation how important are the revisions going to be when you don't control the majority of parliament and need to vote for the relationships that are in there's been a persistent complaint at the minister's office needs to change the way that its function is becoming more open, more transparent and more reactive as the events unfold in real-time and this will test their ability to adapt to that. >> that is a good reminder because after that debacle, scandal, controversy, however you want to qualify it, they did someone in place to be a better liaison between the caucus into the center to make sure those people were being heard. you are going to have to do that times 100 now, are you not? the >> i do it mindful of my neighbor. i've heard this about each. >> i agree. .. >> and they think they are there inside of justin trudeau and not because of him. >> can he manage that clicks. >> he is a diminished asset he is not the same towering figure of 2015. a lot of people will be very unhappy they are down at 33 percent. i don't think he can be there for, yes dictate staying in power will keep people on but a lot of people think they owe him their livelihood. >> i'm interesting to see how he frames it himself. it's hard to say it is a big wi win. at the start minority but is it claimed by trudeau and the liberals that with an ounce of humility because there is no representation in the west but the impact on unity going forward. so is there a recognition that he could not pull out another majority or just framing it as a win and nothing else has to be something slightly more humble or the admission that people wanted to rein him in. >> i think we are conflating two things. the only person on the panel that has worked in a pmo in this type of situation you have to control from the center you have to see a very strong center but that doesn't mean you have to be partisan awol how you approach e-one - - approach every situation. >> but in fairness i believe. [laughter] but that's why we lost in 2015. so have that be a cautionary tale that if you do take a path we don't accommodate parts of the country and you are not well represented there will be a price to be paid but as the prime minister thinks of a greater good. is not just partisan politics but a united country that is functional. in this map it reminds me of the seventies or 1993 where we had the reform party dominating in the west and the separatist party majority of seats in québec. and i think we were at a much better place with national parties compartment on - - competitive but every part of the country. i am from saskatchewan i happy to see him lose but is not good for the province or western canada not to have a voice like ralph around and that is a challenge for this prime minister. we have to separate controlling things from the center. that's just part of how politics works but also how to abrogate your duty to make a have to put everybody on hold. >> they will listen to them a little bit this is his home province. speaking speaking french. >>translator: i think we are doing well. i think we are full of life. [cheers and applause] i look at you and see that you are very young. we have come a long way but we will go even further. [applause] first of all i would like to convey in two hours my father will have left my life 21 years ago and i know he had a great deal of admiration allow me to thank nancy and the children for their patience and especially for their encouragement. i also want to thank all the activist and the constituents and the voters you welcomed me with such warmth that went well beyond my expectations i want to convey my greetings to all of the activist and think my advisor and friend. [cheers and applause] he has allowed us to benefit from his son who has just been elected. [applause] [chanting] [chanting] [speaking french] >>translator: and i have some friendly thoughts and some gratitude for the merrick - - for the campaign and human resources. but it was really a victorious campaign. >> they said that would be an easy choice but it's important to realize that months ago when we were still just crazy people that said yes. [cheers and applause] and now they are going to the house of commons. [chanting] >>translator: thank you very much. they set aside their professional life and through a solemn commitment to quebeckers. but there is tremendous gratitude for all of you not only for me but all quebeckers you will have my lasting friendship the people of québec and canada have chosen a minority parliament tonight. no party among those who are aspiring to a majority no party will control the house of commons. in québec it does not want to form a government or even participate in a government. however to cooperate with any government if what is proposed is good for québec you can count on it if what is being proposed harms québec we will stand up and block it. if the government reflects that temperament that we will also be a party except talking about putting more oil across québec. [cheers and applause] >> unless it means to be compromising our values i don't believe quebeckers are the minority because they wanted to have another vote months from now i believe quebeckers and canadians of all parties in this country from this electoral mess today we can work together to make the state work even though it is imperfect that for 37 years has abandoned one quarter of its population of a constitution they never signed on to. >> but this is what we have to make work understand the mandate we propose to be the voice of the québec nation which ended up in the only real parliament of the national assembly. we are the voice of what existed we are solemnly committed to carry out all of that mandate we understand the depth of that mandate the members and activists and the voters know that we believe as soon as possible in its own way québec will choose to have all the attributes of sovereignty. [cheers and applause] [chanting] >>translator: but i have limitless admiration for activists who can be inpatient at times but for all those people and friends who agree québec this time the realization of sovereignty and the desire for sovereignty they will learn again to listen to quebeckers if there is one thing the campaign taught is we reflect their values in their voice they can give us their full confidence we must hold dear that humility and a promise to where we are. our work is not to make canadian federalism work. our mandate as dictated by voters is the deep relationship between the canadian federation that doesn't mean to be servile however good friends maybe one day we will realize this is the way of the future. partners but equal and free our mandate in the meantime is to get as much as we can in the time we are there while we wait for quebeckers to change london's choose another path and only then can we possibly say that québec is us tonight i have the great pleasure to speak that we could run a clean and positive campaign of ideas québec has just rewarded us for that i hope without giving anybody a lesson i do hope in parliament we will have received and understood to be associated congratulate to mister trudeau. i will make myself available to lay the foundation of a parliamentary culture to adopt another value to quebeckers. respect yes but among parliamentarians and we are there to serve the people. with that in mind and in that spirit without compromising who we are to respect our mandate our desire will be to cooperate and i expect the same but do not expect any compromise from our desire to defend the language and desires. in that spirit as well i believe it is appropriate to convey our feelings to meet with the premier of québec let us never forget this campaign that is only addressed what can we say? the french is with us and secularism. the region is us. the seniors is us. getting rid of oil is us. green energy is us. renovation is us. québec is us. [cheers and applause] now walking away with 32 seats building the party back from official parties it is that's why we took so much of the speech because it will be important in a minority government but he does not want a pipeline to pass through québec in any shape or form. now the liberals have no interest in revising that is good news for him. so that was not to make sure federalism works but also not to stop it. that sounds like a conciliatory move that they will have to work and there are ways to do that there. >> those with the other race is still too close to call with a 558 lead this was one of the seats they were going to hold onto right now trailing in second place this is the seat the liberals and conservatives targeted in the campaign multiple times a 1600 vote lead. >> i was with her when she was campaigning for court seem to be anyone. >> that further to that so where the rise come at the same time as the demise in the province of québec? but in 2011 hitting the high watermark it was reduced to four now it's at 32 we have precisely one number elected that is the deputy leader of the party so you can see elected by a huge gap over the liberal candidates but he has no money or no organization but the last hope this isn't finished yet so close 86 percent are in at this point the liberal candidate now from the eastern township one of the youngest ever from 19 at the time still in the balance but no opportunities for him at this point. >> i should say they have made significant pickups. but the liberals have only lost six. they are down a little bit obviously it has damage their attempts to form a majority government but it is not disastrous and they can say they have a significant presence which could help them to be shut out of western canada. >> now next trying to seek a seat inside the house of coleman's one year after he became leader now here he is he has won the seed again from british columbia so now inside the house and without that by any measure but to start off with low expectations into trademark that so let's take a look at the map on the floor to give you a sense what the country looks like tonight in case you have forgotten we will be standing by for more speeches from leaders including those who had devastating performance by the people's party of canada 1 percent across the country nationally you can see what we are looking at how the country looks there is some support on the far west coast and into ontario the conservatives holding most of western canada and the liberals are sprinkled throughout that miss seeing key seats throughout saskatchewan. >> peter you had something to say quick. >> i didn't but i can think of something. [laughter] >> i remember we talked about the two seats a couple of hours ago and everybody has a couple of speeches in their to address the nation. the next four because mae will speak next. >> there is some confusion so we are standing by normally the guy who wins goes last. >> they all have certain things that may well be addressed but it may be time but through andrew those are key speeches everybody is suggesting to be brought out but they could be. >> it's fair to say they have enough room. we may not here tonight from any of them but on the other hand there are cases to be made for different options going forward. >> ic online the indigenous people in particular were looking at justin trudeau speech which is mentioned in this campaign. now suddenly people dropped off the radar justin trudeau compared to 2015 he made a lot of promises. i think certainly there will be indigenous people watching closely to see if he will deal with issues in a way he promised in the last campaign with a minority government to see if the mvp has the extensive platform on indigenous issues not only committing to the rights of indigenous people or missing murdered indigenous women inquiry but specific like self-service on reserves and cleaner water so i think they are watching the speech closely. >> also to be fair for them with the liberals i take your point trying to get in on that conversation you could raise the issue indigenous does not get enough attention from anybody and that isn't acceptable to many throughout the country. >> we will start that i know you want to talk about women 97 women candidates. >> less than 30 seconds talking about it tonight and it is less than one third of the seats available. is profoundly disappointing we talk about natural resources. is one of the most important resources that we have. to that it is a byline. how do we address this? >> that's very true so chronic problems in canada requires a lot of discussion so that says an awful message to young women. >> what message would you like. >> come because we need you you're the greatest national resource we have in this countr country. >> thank you this proves that the green party is a joke she had the best chance ever in history in canada to move to the center for any other policy. >> she didn't deliver on free tuition? >> she has been a dismal failure as a leader in any other party she resigned i think she will resign in the coming days. >> i'm just happy this is over. [laughter] >> at the beginning of the year i wasn't looking forward to the election but i was proven right by the way and then everybody laughed at me. . .. . .. that everyone takes fs is to start getting to work on things like the identity politics into ditch the behavior stuff when it's just all gotcha politics and get on with the job of making the country that that are. >> indigenous communities are on the frontlines of climate change and they have been talking about climate change for nearly two decades. we sit here tonight and have hardly talked about the northwest territories. >> almost not at all. >> we are not just talking about climate change as an idea about food sources, food and securityy issues, food security issues, and we were not brave enough to hold a debate in this country and to me in 2019, climate change deniers are basically flat earth. if we are not brave enough to hold a debate in the country and have a conversation, we have to go to bed tonight thinking about that and i hope all of the parties show more bravery. over a million people participated in the climate of march and strike. what does it say to people if we are not brave enough to have a conversation. >> is a good place to end the panel i want to thank you all for being here it is such a pleasure for me. i will do that to you, our colleague. you going to go to the podcast pretty soon and hopefully get that out by 6 a.m. tomorrow. >> she tried to get me to do it too and i said i'm older than you i need to lay down. [laughter] thanks for all your help with the evening. we are going to dig into some more results. why we are still on air given that we know the verdict, we are waiting to hear from the rest of the leaders tonight. we have yet to hear from elizabeth may and all of the speeches will be important because they will help us better understand the direction they are going to take into the menu minority government and how they will work together if they have any lines in the sand they want to put out there already and how they are feeling about tonight's all those speeches coming to you once they get themselves organized and decide what order to go in. >> think that i think five hours ago when we were in atlantic canada. [laughter] we were also much younger back then and we were talking about the possibility of a green breakthrough in atlantic canada and all of a sudden she wins the seat in fredericton and the hopes were sky high for the green party and a lot of those hopes were centered on vancouver island we will look and see what happened on vancouver island and uyou can see it is up by just oe percentage point i don't think anybody expected that. paul manley became the second in canada and another reason, take a look at this other vancouver island and there you have them in the third-place. i should point out he worked with the well-known longtime former mp on vancouver island. there is a long tradition and it continued tonight, but that breakthrough did not happen. >> good to know how that unfolded in the end. >> in the final days he put out an attack template going after the party for some of their positions and i will show you a couple of writings. where they are falling short at the moment the incumbent is a 2400 vote lead over david of the green party who ran for the liberals last time around and then victoria and laura collins for the city of victoria has held the seat with 2400 votes. disappointing results for the green party. she's increased the caucus by a blistering 300% this year but it goes from one to three. [laughter] >> sometimes the bar doesn't have to be that high. you've got some more results. >> let's look at what they have been able to do. let's break it down province by province. what they have been able to do is build on their share of the popular vote across the board in every single provincial pace and granted you have very small gains what does that add up to, they've managed to almost double their share of the popular vote may be two ways of looking at that, double the small number is still a small number but nationally they have almost a million votes cast in their favor if you compare that to a party that has 1.2 million they are going to end up with one tenth of what they have said there are three ways you can look at that weather tonight is a success it falls far short of the breakthrough they were hoping to. >> in terms of popular vote isn't that far from where they were. it's not too far off from where they were in 2008 so yes if translated into more seats but are they actually getting more people out and listening to their message, not sure. let's bring you up-to-date on that and dependen independent od and we can tell you at this hour jodi wilson has been elected as right now the only independent in the next house of commons. she has won by more than 1300 votes and of course jodi wilson, click cabinet then was ejected from the caucus along with james philpott who lost here tonight. the goal in running was to try to do politics of little differently. this would be a big win for her tonight and i imagine she will come back and talk at some point in the end. >> she is expected in the next half hour or so. i can tell you the mood shifted very quickly. people are biting their nails worried that the liberal candidate with the conservative going to take the race but as soon as jodi took the top spot, the mood changed instantly. people rushed onto the floor, started chanting her name, very excited because this is a huge speech. it's very difficult in canada for someone to get elected as an independent. people tend to throw their support behind those that have the support of a party. jodi wilson has managed to pull this off and that has everybody here with giant smiles on their face excited and waiting for her to come. it is quite clear that the vote has been split. the last election the liberals were 50% conservatives and taking about a quarter each and this time you see a much tighter race that went back and forth quite a bit. jodi wilson only managed to squeak by a massive speech for her she was able to raise more than $400,000 for this campaign. she had the backing of more than 400 supporters and they were doorknocking up until the last few minutes trying to make that final push for her so now everybody is waiting for her and we are told she's watching at home with her mom and her sister and as i imagined her speech is going to be a happy one. >> a very excited room and you are right important free and independent pull this off. it's difficult if you don't have the organization or the money right at your fingertips and so she has managed to do that so credit where credit is due. i should point out there are places for jodi to find alliances and friendships probably not within the liberal party that certainly she has been present at some green party rallies and she's been hanging out with elizabeth may a little bit member she even offered to give the leader position over. she didn't want to do that but there are some alliances for jodi wilson in spite of the house and i'm sure she will try to find them. just want to let you know the president of the united states says as he does congratulate them justin on a wonderful and hard-fought victory. he continues on canada is well served and i look forward to working with you towards the betterment of both of our countries. we know he's said some other things but tonight he's sending his congratulations. i will update people on this other little bit news. they've now placed calls to justin and have spoken to him on the phone which means we are moving towards hearing from these people this generally that is what you do come and make a call to say congratulations and then come out and give your speech. so you've may weigh in on any part of what i said. >> i will pick something totally extra out of that and look towards what we might hear particularly because he will speak before and that is around the popular vote. we've touched on this so far but it's interesting that conservatives right now just looking at the latest numbers 34.4% of the popular vote while the liberals held a 32.9% of the vote i know there's been a lot of debate but i'm also interested to see how that ends up being. i'm also looking to see particularly if there would be some humility along with the way in which he delivers and conveys this as a win i wonder if there will be the desire as we won the popular vote. or whether there will be some humility in that message. i'm interested to see how they end up framing the way they ended the party ended up tonight. >> this is the way the system works for now. we will see whether he was to make the case again but you can have a percentage of the vote that's very close that you are getting seats in places where there are more urban centers and places like that you just end up with more seats and that's the way the map looks right now. i should say to your plaintiff at 68.8% of the vote. that's pretty definitive but that's where people want to be. >> you also then again look at the map and see a divided regionally that you look at those numbers and see the societies feeling differently about the outcome and i imagine that also doesn't lend itself to you. the easiest job for the pain of struggling forward and bridging people in the regions together it isn't just about appealing. >> and of those speeches that's why we are hanging around to these hours because the speeches are important to starting to set the tone for what you're going to do inside o the parliament ad how you will approach these people and more importantly how you will approach canadians who chose your dividend and now feel a little bit isolated and worried about whether you will pay attention to them. we are standing by. i don't know if we have a shot at. we were told he was going to come in about a minutes time. maybe elizabeth may will come out before him. this is just the shock of the room. this is probably than just getting ready to introduce jesse as he comes on the stage. i'm going to get megan leslie to take over. what message do we expect to hear tonight? >> i expected is going to be positive and open to working together. my only experience was in 2008 and i thought i could get things done and advanced mike agenda and talk about things i wanted to talk about by working with the party. the house of house of commons was on the toxic end though and the government lasted a couple of years but we have a current example of the brookings and remember there was a lot of mudslinging and name-calling and it was pretty ugly, yet they have been able to figure out how to make it work. they are both proud of the work they are doing advancing the environmental agenda and we can take them as role models. i expect that it will be positive like you have seen demonstrated. >> can we flip up this big monitor because you can see all the different rooms waiting to hear from their leaders. we are standing by. there's a lot of jumping up at rallies this year. [laughter] here he is with his wife coming out to talk to the crowds and give the results tonight and this is with him and his future and where he sees the government going. i think you remember david cochran telling how many minority governments there were in canada. >> there's four of the provincial levels. for the provincial level [inaudible] i don't know. i have no idea. i can't think of one there would have been more than four. [cheering] he's going to start talking in a minute but what kind of speech to you expect tonight? >> it looks like he's been a gooin a goodmood. he's going to try to give an upbeat speech. they all said that we were were flawed but here we are, we are in the fourth place but we got 25 seats and we are going to make a go of it. [inaudible] i get what you're saying, but that is a hard thing to spend because in 1993 that is the last time that it was reduced to fourth place and they've stayed there is the next 18 years. so this could be out of the wilderness. >> let's go in here he's about to speak and we will stand by for the other leaders to come out as well. here he is winning 25 seats tonight. [cheering] thank you, thank you so much. [cheering] [cheering] [cheering] thank you very much, my friends. thank you. i appreciate the love. >> translator: it is an honor to be here with you thank you for everything you've did. codon. [applause] before we go any further i want to acknowledge the traditional territories that we are gathered upon. the unseeded territories [inaudible] the first nations. [applause] this has been an incredible night, an incredible campaign, an incredible journey and it's such an amazing honor to be ho home. [applause] [cheering] i also want to take a moment to congratulate the party for the evenings result. i spoke with the premise earlier tonight and the i let him know e will be working hard on the issue we delivered. the priorities the canadians have and all of you have. [applause] [cheering] we are going to make sure the energy that we build the campaign, the excitement that we built and the focus that we put on people continues so we can play a constructive and positive role in the new parliament that the canadians have chosen. [applause] [cheering] i want you to know this is always going to be our focus when we get back every single day that we are in parliament, democrats are going to be working hard to make sure your life is better come of the canadians life is better. [applause] [cheering] i also want to congratulate the other leaders of the parties want to congratulate anyone who allowed to stand for any party is a tough thing to do and i want to thank you all. i've got to tell you i am really proud to have been able to lead the team that is the most diverse and represented women and lgbtq. [applause] this team was one of the most caring diverse teams and i'm so honored to be able to lead the team. [applause] and i want to thank the tens of thousands of volunteers that came out to support our campaign and our teams across this country. [cheering] there are far too many people for me to name i'm sure you can imagine that i'm going to name just a couple. first off, throughout this journey by my side and for this adventure my wife and life partner. [cheering] she stole the show once already and i would love for her to steal it again. [cheering] i also want to thank my family, my brother, my mom and dad, my sister, everyone has been a supportive to me through my whole life, my friends, my team across the country, thank you so much. [applause] now again there's far too many people for me to name but if i can just name two people that can represent the entire team i have it's hard to do that but there's two people you wouldn't mind if they recognized they don't they don't know that i'm doing this but there are two incredible women that were integral to this campaign and i'm proud to say they are women, it is something powerful in our party. [cheering] by campaign director, jennifer howard. [cheering] and by national director melissa bruno. [applause] [cheering] two of the most powerful positions were young powerful women, let's just say they are powerful women. [cheering] either melissa or jennifer are going to be mad at me over dot one are both. i also want to thank the incredible people of bernadine south fork electing me. i am humbled that you put your trust in me and i am going to continue to work with you and for you. thank you. [applause] [cheering] i've got to tell you throughout this campaign i've made some mee incredible people, some inspirational people and i am inspired by them and their stories have stuck with me. i've met these folks across the country, folks that inspired the work that we do as democrats and one of those people is a young man, a young boy barely 10-years-old that lives with a chronic illness and told me he wasn't worried about the chronic illness or other medication or the injections or wasn't worried about the fact that he didn't stay on top of this medication or blood work he might die. he told me he wasn't worried about any of that, he was just worried the medication was costing a lot to his mom and dad. he worried about being a burden to his family. i remember that young man and the fact that someone as young as that felt he was a burden in a country such as ours is part of the reason we are fighting, we are fighting for that young man. [applause] [cheering] i also want to talk about a community that represents the injustice historically and ongoing that indigenous people continue to face. there are people that are so resilient in the face of neglect and negligence and being ignored and being told they don't matter, being ridiculed. we brought the national campaign to let them know they do matter. [cheering] and that indigenous reconciliation is sometimes the simplest basic respect and dignity for the birth people of this land and that means clean drinking water. [cheering] that means not taking indigenous kids to court. [cheering] that means equal funding for child welfare, education and quality homes. [cheering] >> translator: i have met people from all backgrounds, people that have had trouble and they were cynical about politicians. they weren't convinced but they said that they are all the same. so to the people of québec, i want to say thank you. >> of course the results are not what we wanted but the wealth of the regime does go back to the. we share the same values and i'm grateful for the support that we have received this evening. but it wasn't enough. we continue to fight for you. we are not going to abandon québec. i will continue to have a presence there. i said that we would unite progressives and together we can do that and we will. [applause] jack began and we will continue because progressive, we are the progressives. [cheering] thank you, friends. see you soon. keep up the good work. >> just want to build a good life but it's harder and harder to do so. i want to say democrats are going to fight for you. [cheering] in the days ahead i will be meeting my new caucus and we are going to sit together and talk and discuss how we can deliver for the people of this country. [applause] .. >> not the rich and powerful or the wealthy. [cheers and applause] i'm sorry burka we will talk about that. and if all these that are elected tonight hear the message and act on that message than the real winners of this election will be the people. [cheers and applause] [speaking french] >>translator: it sends a clear message they want a government that works for them. not the big multinationals but for canadians. [cheers and applause] if all the members elected tonight hear that message and ask as they should the real winners of this election will be the people. [applause] >> i want to let you know democrats are working hard to deliver to make sure young people have a future that is filled with hope. [cheers and applause] we want young people to make sure that canada is a leader in the global fight of the climate crisis. [cheers and applause] we want families to have a more affordable life. and we want canada that takes reconciliation seriously. [cheers and applause] >> and for reconciliation is more than a word but requires real action. real action. >> and for reconciliation is more than a word but requires real action. real action. say these are what we continue to fight for. if you need medication we want to make sure you use your health card, not your credit card. [cheers and applause] that means a national publicly delivered pharma care for all. [cheers and applause] we want to help canadians get a home they can afford. [cheers and applause] and by making life more and more affordable is not a tax cut for the richest canadians but tackling student debt by waiving all interest on student loans. [cheers and applause] that means taking on to put a cap on the cell phone bills. [cheers and applause] real and urgent action to face the climate crisis. and reinvesting in energy. and we have to invest in housing burka we will do that. [applause] and also to make sure we will say it again and again that the super wealthy start to pay their fair share cracks. [cheers and applause] [cheers and applause] [chanting] [chanting] that's exactly what we are going to do. [laughter] these are the priorities of the people at the heart of the conversation in the days and weeks to come. and if the other parties work with us we have an incredible opportunity to meet the lives of all one - - make the lives of all canadians so much better. and a way to change politics in this country. i want to talk to the many canadians that rejected the call of vote out of fear and thank you for voting for help. [cheers and applause] and if any election shows with electoral reform. [cheers and applause] we can make sure that every election from now on. >> he is still giving his closing speech we thought it would be shorter but now we will tell you where the leader of the opposition is getting ready to speak. >> it's always great to be back in saskatchewan. [applause] now first and foremost i want to thank the voters for once again electing me as your member of parliament thank you to all the volunteers that worked hard in the campaign office to put up signs thank you so much for running this campaign. this is an honor i will never take for granted and the trust you have put in me also thank you to all 336 conservative party candidates for your hard work during this campaign. [applause] and the special note to my two new colleagues and to everybody across the country who joined the conservative team knocked on doors are made a donation. normally we all wait her turn now here is justin trudeau the next prime minister we'll go back to andrew if we need to. [cheers and applause] >> from coast to coast to coast tonight canadians rejected division and negativity. [cheers and applause] they rejected cuts and austerity and voted in favor of a progressive agenda and strong action on climate change. [cheers and applause] i have heard you my friends. we are putting her liberal team back to work with a clear mandate we will continue to fight climate change we will get guns off our streets and keep investing in canadians. [speaking french] >>translator: with the possibility that none of this would have been possible without those sacrifices of many people. i have so many people to think and i know i will spend a lot of time on the phone in the coming days but tonight there are few people in particular that i have to thank. first of all, my sophie. [applause] we began this political adventure together ten years ago because we believed in a better future and we knew it was worthwhile for a better and more prosperous. >> now we have all three leaders speaking at the same time. generally you take your time the person who wins goes last so now we are sticking with the prime minister since he won we will bring you anything more if andrew does make an announcement we will bring you that right now we're back to justin trudeau. >>translator: every single one - - single day you inspire me to do more and better and i do it for you and your generation. [applause] you remind me every single day i have to take some time to appreciate the life we have and how lucky we are and evolve the roles that i have it's the one that i like the most. >> to the very best campaign team ever assembled in canada none of this would have been possible without you thank you for the early mornings and late nights you have sacrificed a lot taking time away from families and friends and i cannot thank you enough. you did it. congratulations. to the leaders of the other parties, thank you for being a part of this exercise of democracy. you have chosen to serve. thank you for stepping up in this campaign and political lif life. [speaking french] >>translator: i have to think the people. [cheers and applause] [chanting] [chanting] >>translator: for more than ten years you have entrusted me and it is a great privilege for me to continue to represent you and to continue to be a strong voice for you. thank you. thank you so much. [chanting] [chanting] >> and to my fellow canadians it has been the greatest honor of my life to serve you these past four years in tonight you send us back to work for you. we take this responsibility seriously in me will work hard for you and your family and for your future. to those who voted for our party thank you for putting your trust in our team and to move this country in the right direction and to those who did not vote for us know we will work every single day for you and we will govern for everyone. [applause] regardless of how you cast your ballot we will fight for all canadians. [applause] >> [speaking french] >>translator: i heard your message tonight you want to continue to go forward with us but you also want to ensure that the voice of québec can be heard even more in ottawa and i can tell you that we will be there for you. >> and know that you are and essential part of our great country i want to be there to support you. let us all work hard to bring our country together. [applause] [speaking french] >>translator: for four years we have done everything we could to improve people's lives and that is what we will continue to do. friends, you are sending us with a clear mandate to go forward and you ask us to invest in canadians to make reconciliation with the indigenous people a priority. [applause] to show even greater vision and ambition as we tackle the greater challenge of our time climate change. and that is exactly what we will do. there's a lot of work to be done but i swear to you we will continue what we have begun like all canadians know it is always possible to do better. >> one of my favorite prime ministers often talked about patriotism and the unifying power of common goals and aspirations in my conversations with canadians across the country i have seen firsthand there is so much more that unites us than divides us they expect us to focus on the shared vision of a stronger canada and i intend to work hard to make that a reality. we all want to bigger communities, good quality of life, for ourselves, our neighbors and our kids and grandkids. we speak hardship for none and prosperity for all. that is what we are working toward. and if we unite around these common goals, i know we can achieve them. [cheers and applause] in the years ahead our team will work hard to build on the progress made by the canadians who came before us and we will champion and all diversity and to the voiceless in every decision we make with this country and the people first. [applause] [speaking french] >>translator: those who lose her long-term partner after 48 years will help those students who want climate change action and help the mother with three children who needs a little more help at the end of the month. >> these last few days i have done rallies across the country i have told the means story he voted conservative his entire life but this time he decided to vote liberal on behalf of his daughter. he understood this election is more than the next four years but the next 40 years when the kind of canada her and her kids will grow up in but i want to say i need to earn your vote. not just your daughters. [applause] over the coming year, i plan on doing exactly that. my friends, this election was about you in the world your kids will inherit. tonight we chose to move canada forward. tonight chartering a path to the future we will walk it together. >>translator: together to a better future. thank you everyone and thank you montréal. [cheers and applause] >> this time he will have to govern as a minority prime minister and the country that he will need to reach out to in the coming months where he says he heard what québec said to them and he will try to answer those calls and specifically. >> he did appeal to alberta and saskatchewan who felt shut out to remind them they are an essential part of canada and he would try to bring everyone together who wants to work together because so much of the country has already turned away from justin trudeau. he started his speech just as andrew was starting his. we are for fairness and balance we will go back to what the official opposition has to say and that speech in its entirety so now andrew is giving his speech as they make their way out of the hall in montréal. >> thank you so much everyone for the warm welcome. it is great to be back in saskatchewan. [cheers and applause] first and foremost thank you to the voters for once again electing me as your member of parliament. [applause] thank you to all the volunteers who worked hard in the count one - - campaign office. thank you so much for running a campaign it is an honor i will never take for granted that i will work hard every day to repay the trust you put in me also thank you to all 336 conservative party candidates for your hard work during this campaign and a special note of congratulations for regina and her family. [applause] and everybody across the country who joined our conservative team what you knocked on doors or lawn signs or made a donation or told your friends and neighbors why you voted conservative. party a strong and united and we are on the march ladies and gentlemen. [cheers and applause] we ran an excellent campaign from top to bottom and for that you should all be proud and on a personal note thank you to my wife jill and our five children who have been so supportive of the long weeks and months no matter where public life has or will take me the greatest honor of my life is to be a husband and dad. [cheers and applause] i have just spoken with prime minister trudeau to congratulate him on winning the most seats so my message is a strength of our democracy not only measured by the ballots we cast but how we move forward after. [speaking french] >>translator: friends thank you for your tireless campaign. i congratulated justin trudeau to win the largest number of seats and the strength of our democracy is not only measured of voting but also measured in the way we continue to move forward. >> this is not what we wanted but i'm also incredibly proud. part of our team and campaign proud of the stronger conservative team we will send to ottawa. [applause] >> so a number of really close races we don't know how many more conservatives canadians will send to ottawa tonight but after the 2015 election when justin trudeau looked unstoppable in the pundits and experts said at the beginning of another dynasty but tonight when your government falls conservatives will be ready and we will win. [cheers and applause] [speaking french] >>translator: i am incredibly proud of our conservative movement remember friends what happened it was predicted justin trudeau would govern the country for ten or 12 years but tonight we have put him on notice, his leadership and his government will end soon. and when that time comes the conservatives will be ready and we will win. [applause] >> the canadians have been on this government not only have they lost over 20 seats for mister trudeau has also lost in every region of the country and ladies and gentlemen we knew this would never be easy but nothing worth achieving ever is. only once as a first-term majority government then and seated. but we also made history tonight we have accomplished only two parties have ever done before by holding a first-term majority government to a minority. [applause] >> we have picked up seats in almost every region of the country and at the time i walked on the stage we are leading the popular vote ladies and gentlemen. [applause] canadians wanted us to win this election more than any other party and remember 2004? raising the majority to have a conservative government this is how it starts this is how it starts this is the first step now we are headed back to ottawa with a much bigger team and more support from coast to coast with an endorsement from the canadian people we are a government in waiting. [applause] [speaking french] >>translator: with my team we will continue to work with these conservative values and that québec values are conservative values freedom of expression imposing on the people and we believe it's better by the people them by the government so quebeckers can count on us to defend their interest. >> but our dominant result in western canada tonight, canada is a country that is further divided these nationbuilding projects in these industries remain under attack keeping thousands of canadians out of work and holding back her nations potential. we are mired in deficit sinking further into debt and even higher taxes canadians are falling further behind but household budgets more than ever before and as economic headwinds gather against us we are as vulnerable as we have ever been with that next inevitable downturn but with all those challenges i remain hopeful because canada was built on conservative values and those will be what get us back on track. [applause] we say people not government to those freedoms that we hold dear of freedom of thought and religion and consciousness that free markets and balance budgets and small governments are the best ways to create prosperity lifting people out of poverty. >> in the country were hard work is rewarded and not punished and the government realizes the best way to help them get ahead is to lift them up and not tear them down. [applause] john said i am a canadian free to speak without fear free to worship and stand for what i think is right and freedom to oppose what i believe free to choose those who will govern my country this heritage of freedom i pledged to uphold for myself and all mankind looking at challenges we will face you must take these timeless words to heart if canada is not defined by any political party or movement it endures not because of anyone government or leader but because of the value so perfectly articulated transcend us all we are free to worship and free to believe we are equal an opportunity before the law we are strong in character and principle and action that canada shines for everyone that we must uphold these values ladies and gentlemen our stories just beginning with remember the feeling coming close but falling short and that use it as fuel to redouble the efforts our work is not over canadians are counting on us. [cheers and applause] [speaking french] >>translator: canadians are relying on us they will need us to replace the conservative government that unites the country to celebrate our freedoms honoring the commitment thank you so much for all the support you have given me and all your hard work from the bottom of my heart thank you for your commitment to this party and the ideals we stand for. [cheers and applause] >> that is andrew speaking a little time ago he was speaking before trudeau came out certainly that didn't sound like the conservative leader at this stage to say that they just fell short but they will continue to work hard to make sure trudeau is doing his job properly the general feeling about what is next for how they did tonight quick. >> the room started to empty out once those results were release released. there were a few moments of joy even though this is not the result they were hoping for. bad to the candidate could unseat the long time liberal from the cabinet minister. anytime to show that conservative candidate there were huge rounds of applause even during the concession speech people were chanting a hey hey goodbye. ♪ but what is really important about andrew's speech is he focuses on the positives for the party tonight for anybody who would want to challenge him on leadership he talks about the moment he delivered the speech that he had the popular vote and more people voted for him then justin trudeau but overall it was in the conservatives favor but he also spoke is going back to ottawa with a stronger team. so there is any conservative members of caucus that was thinking about a leadership run who tried to stem any talk about that he has no plans to resign and he spoke how he was trying to take out justin trudeau with that liberal government that it should give them more energy and fuel to hold that liberal government to account and said when it falls conservatives will be ready to pounce. >> thank you for all your work we appreciate it. obviously andrew is trying to position for himself and his party nobody seem to think that it wasn't the we will see how the actual caucus responds. my apologies for my coughing fit earlier. i hope everybody understands i was slowly dying. [laughter] the room is cleared up pretty quickly there as well how do the liberals feel now clicks a secured but not exactly what they were hoping for but a strong minority nonetheless. >> it is midnight that really a happy crowd reducing government and minority a really strong minority so justin trudeau talked about having canadians talk about climate change and fighting of those measures but has been a rebuke for him from alberta and saskatchewan and he specifically reached out to canadians and saskatchewan's in his speech talking about hearing their frustration and bringing canadians together but also that he cannot name a cabinet minister that remains to be see seen. >> thank you for all your coverage the first federal election campaign you have survived that's a win for you. elizabeth may is speaking from british columbia everything is all mixed up we will listen to her for a little bit. >> and all the volunteers that i could not be prouder to campaign with us in langford and doing a spectacular job and hear a huge shout out to those who are celebrating as well don't celebrate too long we have to get to work but i do stand before you heartbroken as a spectacular indigenous woman. [cheers and applause] and david that was down to the wire finish. [applause] for the record books this is the best election result than any system has ever had and we enter parliament as the first in history that is two thirds women. just saying. [applause] [speaking french] >>translator: and for all of you who worked as volunteers. >> i cannot thank you enough literally. >> i will keep trying your dedication, love and care and concern and shoe leather talking to everyone, we have raised awareness and consciousness and our votes but the goal has always been to deliver the government canadians deserve. let's hope speaking speaking 11's lawn - - because speaking french. >>translator: and then to have a great campaign so we have the liberals who have gone down the conservatives without a victory the mbp who lost and also across canada they lost seats. but they ran a campaign and remains as the fourth party and we are the fifth. >> we are in the parliament it is a minority parliament we will make it right. hard work and mortal persuasion nonstop arm twisting so the phrase is holding the feet to the fire. [applause] sumac that is elizabeth may giving her speech in victoria where her party managed to pick up additional seats but her support did grow across the country at about six.4 percent from national so we will get a picture of what type of vote turnout from andrew who can give us an idea on the number. >> these are unofficial because they are still votes being counted a couple of things i will point out is the conservatives did win the popular vote so strictly speaking it is interesting if not important that more canadians did vote conservative than liberal and the other thing i will point out turnout is down but not in a dramatic way considering and justin trudeau that was the year that saw a surge but i would also point out the liberals are down in a disproportionately larger way and the turnout itself so the voters turned out increasing numbers. >> so now i just want to contrast that in 2015 because we talked before the conservative party is not great at growing it support in 2015 it was 5,600,000 the liberal party benefited from big turnout and from a country that wanted to get rid of the government and has been in place ten years they have popular support close to 7 million people that drop has left them in a minority that's why there is that disparity. we are getting ready to wrap this down but first you will be back tomorrow i hate to tell yo you. you have had time to sleep on things but you look at the picture tonight. >> listening to the speeches i'm not sure if justin trudeau has the relief of that government. but triumph should be more moderated going forward. if i was at the end of this campaign the minister lost almost half of the caucus he had from 2015 and almost no representation east of ontario. the three of them have some thinking to do all they want to behave in the next parliament. >> if there is any message for anybody i would think it is that that canadians are not thrilled with any of them. >> went with no happy results with a severely weakened government and most importantly this is the weakest mandate at 33 percent of the vote and its presiding over a sharply divided country. the conservatives got 14 seats east of ontario they are awake in both québec and the west without a strong government. >> we really didn't see in any of those speeches i think we would agree listening to that the outreach or conciliatory remarks or awareness of what had happened other than alberta and saskatchewan from trudeau. >> they seem completely oblivious even their speeches seem to be campaign speeches they seem more interesting relitigating and trying to bring the country together. i think this is been a really bad night for everybody else but elizabeth may got more than a million otherwise nobody met the target they set for themselves. >>. >> picking up on that sharply divided weather regions or interest groups as i look at that map i am thinking we will have lots of fodder next sunday. [laughter] >> magan you were watching. >> i agree sharply divided. it will be tough for all the parties but at the same time the minority government like douglas and we could get some great stuff for canada affordable housing, i am hopeful about the policies. >> you are just a more hopeful person. >> others have summed it up very well. it's good for everybody except for the block it's a bad night for canada. i'm not feeling great thought a lot of those results but we will make the best of it. >> taking one more look at the map almost all are reporting right now just a few more are finishing up but that is what it looks like tonight talking about divisions and what will happen that's why we talk about it because that's what canada will look like going forward. >> about the speeches summed up the election they were all talking over each other. although not deliberate but we saw the triple screen here in the studio it was ridiculous in terms of people delivering messages they were giving the same speeches of the campaign was no different tempo or self-deprecation or no real humor but the same repetition of lines. i don't feel great about that but i do feel great about our country and i say we will get through it all. but i wish parliament and cabinet could be itself to be engaged in a productive way there is overlap between the parties it can happen but in terms of what people have to say i was troubled by that. >> it will take a lot of hard work. >> what struck you from your own results quick. >> my favorite moment unfolded on this program was a concession interview it is a reminder you can lose and it's not dishonorable doesn't matter what party you talk about it was just impressive and poignant. >> and i'm on the air for the next 15 minutes you can all move down to my studio. >> so i look at what we will deal with only go back to ottawa in a day or two. my sense is it might last longer than the jokes but the democrats are clearly the obvious partner because they took a beating tonight but the conservatives will have no problem coming off of this result in those to pay for this campaign so i think justin trudeau has more leash because of that. >> i also think about the future and the sense of the country as a whole. in a literal sense of those individual sites because often you have voters in blocks but tonight it just feels like those blocks are smaller than what we are accustomed to so you see the regionalization and divided country to what we said a few times. >> yes there are a lot of parties on the left that would call themselves progressive. so there is some overlap to find some common ground. that will take significant outreach for everybody. the block is 32 up from ten and then down 24 greens with three. peter last thought. >> history tells us it lasts on average two years for a couple of the officers after tonight there is no incentive. >> minority government. >>. >> you don't want to scare people. >> i thought like the others this is a night where the country needed to stand up and talk about united country and nobody did. and then to walk up there not realizing two thirds had voted against him and left big holes in the country. >> he eventually got to that one line of saskatchewan and alberta and there was a similar issue and we should know its history they have benefited from that very fact and he quoted in spite of the fact he had fewer votes. so i don't know i was really disappointed. >> but that is the story of not really understanding where they are going but i will give everyone 24 hours to see if they can come up with something more in the next couple of days particularly with the prime minister to do some significant outreach. so it ended like it started. and then we saw evidence of that tonight and where they highlighted for example and then to say they didn't show that humility either from trudeau or scheer say we won the popular vote and trudeau said we had a clear mandate. kind of true but not the point that's not what they were sending to you tonight it would nice to hear some recognition of what was so evident from canadians. >> it also depends on when do they recall parliament with a form government. >> they have the entire country listening. >> and then may open a bottle in the shape of the research and even winning the election. >> both major parties have to think how to expand their vase loan - - their base but we have never seen this before it should be sober reflection. >> we will see you tomorrow. a huge thanks to all of the producers sitting behind us and in the control room upstairs. [applause] they bring us the results met for weeks for and to all them for their analysis with canada vote 2019 thank you for watching good luck canada. >> the results of the canadian federal election with the liberal party receiving the most votes those that are required to become a majority government justin trudeau will remain prime minister now has the task of a coalition government. earlier the president reacted with a tweet that reads congratulations to justin trudeau on a wonderful and hard-fought victory. canada is well served and look forward to working with you toward the betterment of both of our countries.

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