Dynamics on the middle east and its important to recognize that everything here is on the record. Before we begin id like to highlight the Atlantic Councils collaboration with ifpi, which is the Italian Institute for International Political studies. This is the second year that our two organizations have partners produced an outstanding work on the changing landscape in the middle east. Today we are pleased to release our new collected volume, the mino region, and its now available for download online. A special thanks goes out to the president of ifpi, ambassador monsolo for his continuous collaboration in our joint ventures and indebted to the Italian Foreign ministry, in particular to the italian ambassador for his unwavering drive to see our two institutions partnering for not only the two countries they represent, but for the entire community. Ambassador monsolo couldnt be here at the last minute, but asked me to read this note. Its great regret i address you all in writing when i sincerely wanted to be with you. A last minute event prevented me from attending the presentation of our joint report on the middle east. This work bears special importance and is a testament to the excellent collaboration between our two organizations. Id like to express by full appreciation for what the ifpi and the council did together. I could not be with you today, i wish you all a fruitful day of enriching dialog. Lastly id like to thank my team here at the Atlantic City council, especially kareem and emily. Emily, where are you . Okay. With their excellent work putting this altogether, putting together the conference and collected volume, theyve gone above and beyond a great work of scholarship and truly an exciting event today. Before i turn the microphone over to the ambassador, let me say a few words about him. His excellency served as ambassador from italy to the United States, and prior to this high ranking positions within the Italian Government and abroad. In particular he specialized in european and Transatlantic Affairs during his years as the italian representative to the European Union and served in budapest, and a chief advisor to the council of minister and diplomatic advisor to the district and the republic and focused on security issues. He has specific expertise in global issues and he was at the g8 and 20 summits. He received a degree in 1985 and entered the Foreign Service in 1986 and promoted to the rank of ambassador in 2014. So with no further ado, let me welcome the ambassador to open our discussion today. [applaus [applause] thank you. Thank you, william. Thank you for your kind introduction. Its a pleasure for me to be back here at such a prestigious institution. I can see from the crowd attending this event, again, how it is important to promote our cooperation and can see that in the topic of today receives such great welcome. As you know, italy and the United States are joined by a longstanding shared beliefs and something i will expand on later and most importantly, we are joined by shared vision, something which is reflected in collaboration between the Atlantic Council and the political states, ifbi. And im very pleased its the second year of this productive collaboration. At the embassy, were glad to be the link between that and for both with organizing todays events dedicated to the. Last year we focused on the crisis in the region. And now in 2019 we move on. In our common suggestions well focus on the new vision for the middle east. The subject, which we can safely define as a moving target, also in light of the increasing power competition in the region. Assistant secretary who will be here today im sure will have the best opportunity for a broad discussion on the latest developments. I want to focus my remarks on the general challenges as well as the opportunities. Because notwithstanding the remarkable potential of the region, a quick overview of the state of region shows the story of a growing violence, such as libya, and crisis in syria and yemen, a renewed risk of terrorism, not to mention the shadow gulf tensions cast over the entire region. In the past the focus of our discussion would have been state fragility. And today we notice the worrisome rise of tensions and increasingly to both agendas among different players. In addition we also note appearance or rather, reappearance of an impending power competition. The emergence of new actors in the region, particularly china, alongside traditional ones such as russia, presents a new challenge, which is quite rightly at our discussion today. Chinas influence in the region, one could only harken back to what the foreign minister said back in 2014 and i quote, chinas political role in the middle east will only grow. There is no way back, end of quote. What we see now is a new strategic competition with china and russia boosting their engagement in the middle east in recent years in all areas. Trade and investment, energy, military cooperation, and of course, diplomacy. This new multilayered challenge in turn impacts some extraordinary opportunities that have recently surfaced, the natural gas and Energy Revolution in the east mediterranean. Discoveries of many natural gas fields across the region are shaping a new reality. Used wisely, this could be invaluable in unleashing Untapped Potential and bringing together Key Countries like egypt, lebanon, cypress, turkey, of course, israel. However, its also fraught with danger as we can see by the looming tensions. Remember, what happens in the mediterranean and the mino region does not stay there and as ripple or flat effects worldwide, affecting stability and prosperity across three continents and no one knows this better. Against this backdrop, todays discussion is most timely and throws in relief, we must find a way to address this new scenario. We cannot stay idle, rather, we must press on and seek a new Strategic Vision for the middle east, able to respond to increasingly complex challenges. Italy has a great role to play on this. Bottom line upfront. We do not have a National Agenda for the region that could be seen as come fronttational or in competition with others. Our goal is clear, peaceful, stable and flourishing middle east, safe from the threat of terrorists, and threat from the threat of becoming the Battle Ground from proxy leaders. This comes from our history. Theres nothing new there. The threat that my country spread across the mediterranean, having the possibility to entertain different people, being able to understand and listen. This is something that is part of our dna. We are a key provider in the region, security provider in the region, headed by Major General, and were the constitution and Security Forces. On libya, a topic, you can imagine at a central discussion during recently secretary pompeos trip to italy. I remembered many questions on supposed intraeurpean competition to excertificate influence over the country and the region and i also remember underlining that this narrative was based on a misconception of european dynamics. On the margins of the recent g8 there hosted a ministerial meeting and secretary gutierrez. And this is a broader meeting that theyll host later this fall, for the special representative to stop affiliations in the country and start the relaunch. Moving forward, italy has always been one of the main contributors to the coalition. And iraqi personnel which were ready to continue our support to the coalition as it looks to broader challenges both , namely in north africa and regions. And italys role the solemn flank is an integral with part of the nato to security challenges as security in europe is immediately linked to security and stability in the mediterranean. There cannot be a withdrawal. This is the key to our collective security. Italy is ready to provide its contribution in defining a strategic path forward toward a more stable and prosperous area. Through our strong human and culture bond with our mediterranean neighbors and our deep understanding of regional dynamics, we look forward to continuing the fruitful discussion with our american friends in the frame work of italy, u. S. Strategic on the mediterranean launched last year during the visit of our Prime Minister. Our request for a common vision for the area has been one of the main focuses of the meetings of secretary pompeo. Where he met with our leaders, starting with the Prime Minister, and our foreign minister. And in that respect with the visit here next week, we look forward to exploring at the highest levels ways for strengthening cooperation between italy and the u. S. This will mark the president s second official visit to the u. S. , a loud and clear testament to our strong relationship and strategic relations. And talking of dialogdialogs. Its my pleasure to mention the conference which turned five this year. This important event will be held in early december in rome. It has become a landmark event, an annual gathering that brings together heads of state, ministers, societies and members of the media. This years theme is and should not be a surprise beyond the agenda. And so, not enrealistic. As the region struggles with sectarian, as well as with regional and International Competition, we must continue to strive for unity of intent and to push a common agenda. In italy, one of the very first things we start in school is the critical importance, the luna as we call it. Lets Work Together to define a new Strategic Vision for the middle east to make sure that the area returns not too distant future to prosperity that so deserved throughout the centuries. Thank you very much and congratulations for the Atlantic Council for the excellent cooperation for very thoughtful paper and im sure the best way to pave our preparation towards dialog in rome. Thank you very much. [applaus [applause] well pause for a minute or two as our next guest is in the process of arriving. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] a lot of things are changing. You have some very, very wealthy nations. Extremely wealthy nations where we take care of their military and we take care of their military needs. Nobody can do it better than us, but we are really not being reimbursed for what were doing and were having very nice talks, very friendly talks for the most part without exception people are coming through and they say we have to help out, also. A lot of exciting things are happening with our military. We have a great team. Some of the best leaders in the world. I think theyre probably the best leaders in the world. We have the greatest men, the greatest women and the greatest equipment. Nobody makes it like we do. So i want to thank you all and we have the discussion and we are going to go over and have dinner at the white house and thank you all very much for being here. Appreciate it. Are you confident what theyre doing in syria is the best at this point. Weve been in syria for a long time and it was supposed to be a very short hit, hit on isis, but it didnt work out that way. They never left and theyve been there for many, many years. And we are we were down to very few soldiers in syria. We had 50 in the region that youre talking about, 50 soldiers. And theyve been already moved out, but well see what happens with respect to a lot of different things. Weve told turkey, i spoke with president erdogan of turkey and i said all of the exciting news that seems to happen every single day. Were here, and david shenker, a good old friend of mine will share with us his great and unmatched wisdom about the u. S. Policy in the region. Let me give you a little background on david. He was sworn in as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs june 14th of this year. Prior to joining the department of state he was director of the program on arab politics at the Washington Institute for near east policy from 20002006. He served in the office of the secretary of defenses at lavant country director and theyre responsible of advising the secretary and other Senior Leadership on military and Political Affairs of syria, lebanon, jordan, israel and the palestinian territories. He was offered a medal for Exceptional Service in 2005. Before that period of joining government he was a Research Fellow at Washington Institute as well and a project coordinator for a long centrally funded i. D. Project in egypt and jordan. With no further delay, please, assistant secretary shenker, welcome you to the podium. [applaus [applause]. Good morning. So it says here im supposed to speak on an update on current u. S. Strategy toward the region, but i had seen that the title of this conference was Strategic Visions and power competition in the middle east. So im going to speak about china and russia today, the new threats to middle east security and stability. Thank you, will. Its a pleasure to be at the Atlantic Council today and thank you, ambassador, and our italian cohosts. Both the United States and italy share a deep interest in sustained engagement in the middle east. Italy remains one of our closest partners and an event like this demonstrates our shared commitment to the future of the region. Secretary pompeo returned from a productive visit to italy reento,ing our strong partnership. I spent time with my italian counterparts. And this campaign to defeat isis, the u. S. Has played a leading role in immobilizing the community to confront stress in the region. Most of this focuses on the iranian threat, but im going to be here today to talk about a challenge thats most subtle and possibly more worrying or just as worrying. Thats the autocratic regimes like russia and china in the region. And were keeping a watchful eye on actions to undermine this goal. Four vision for the region, its in sharp contrast to those offered by russia and china. The u. S. Has a long track record to bring prosperity to the middle east and north africa. We are committed to Economic Growth and provide jobs and prosperity in the United States and around the world and we value individual freedom and democracy. As secretary pompeo said, the United States is a force for good in the region. Most significantly, we seek to tackle the regions problems working together with our partners advancing their interests as we advance our own. For example, weve led and organized the Global Coalition to defeat isis and developed the process in the region. And were looking to mesa and the gulf and together with other likeminded nations, were the cornerstone of the International Maritime for the region in the gulf. All of these mechanism help build Regional Security. The Global Coalition to defeat isis is what we can accomplish with a common goal and local partners. 76 nations and in the Global Coalition are and should be proud the territory isis once held was liberated. Beyond the military campaign, a triumph the coalitions efforts has been diplomacy. Organizing a Worldwide Network to stop financing and ending the flow of foreign fighters and discrediting isis bankrupt ideology. Our contributions include significant humanitarian assistance. Since 2014 alone, for iraq alone almost 2. 5 billion dollars in humanitarian aid to confli confli conflict affected and displaced. And this is voluntarily, a voluntary return of nearly 4 million internally displaced people. Neither russia or china, nor china showed a willingness let alone capability for a collective effort for the glob global. And china provided less than 11 million to china since 2013 and russia provided nothing. Instead of helping, russia and china sought to exploit openings to increase their own influence at the expense of their partners. The United States remains the indispensible partner for the majority of the countries in the region and china and russia play both sides in a range of regional disputes and the United States has the intractable problems. Taking a Firm Position is not always the most popular to do. But Public Opinion sometimes reflects that, but its a hall mark of global leadership. Let me be clear, we have no desire to make any country choose between the u. S. And russia and china. Countries can have positive relations with u. S. , china and russia and we want to ensure that their activities in the middle east do not come at the expense of the regions prosperity, fiscal viability and longstanding relationship with the u. S. So fact of the matter is we have a fundamentally different approach from russia and china to the regions most pressing problems. Lets start with iran. Iran represents the dominant challenge facing the region today. When we see this, and the nuclear escalations and Ballistic Missiles program, iran is still in conflict in yemen and beyond. And groups like hezbollah. Earlier this month, iran has a brazen attack. This showed the fundamental lack of respect for sovereignty and security of the neighbors. And it takes 5 of the Global Oil Supply off the market. The sizable percentage of this oil is definitely for china. China is saudi arabias number one customer. And saudi arabia is chinas leading oil supplier. Yet, where was china when its primary Energy Source was threatened. China was playing both sides, facilitating irans activities propping up the regime for continued oil purchases. And they give them further cash to further sew discord in the region. And iran with the shipping in the straits of hormuz, we have the construct to protect freedom of navigation. Weve had countries around the world to join us to monitor irans behavior and prevent them from the ships. Where is russia . Theyre looking at a 20yearold construct they diverted attention from the efforts that didnt work 20 years ago and it wont help the situation today. Our presence in the gulf remains a bedrock of Regional Security and for navigation for Critical Energy resources. And all of it benefits us in the region and the world. And russia and china are seeking to increase their own returns rather than contribute to the broader goals and security. Its not just limited to iran. In iraq, iran has repeatedly provided assistance to groups that owe more allegiance to iran than baghdad. With the heavy policy in iraq, providing clean Drinking Water to citizens of basra, and 100 million in new projects and clearing mines so the displaced religion minorities can return to their ancesteral homes. There are three ongoing conflicts continue to claim lives. Its clear that they require political solutions, the United States will continue to support the u. N. Led peace efforts throughout the region and bring relevant parties into a political process. Russia on the other hand is playing a spoiler to advance its own narrow interests as the people in the region suffer. In syria the behavior has been egregious. Theyve propped up the murderous regime under the guys guise of counterterrorism. And theyve shown russias support has facilitated brutal attacks on civilians. Syria and russia have used the u. N. s do not strike list as a targeting list. Attacking civilian sites and creating refugees and displaced persons. And the assad group played by the rules, moscow applies the grosney rules, razing areas. And deploying chemical weapons against its own people. Weve sought efforts to demonstrate the crimes. Russia has sewed doubt and misinformation doing everything it can to protect the assad regime from accountability and frustrate the u. N. Led process. Theyve showcased the weapons and other issues. In libya, russia fueled the conflict and socalled private military force at sea and violating the arms embargo. And where is china . Playing an unhelpful role in syria and joining russia in vetoing a call for a ceasefire. Ultimately, we want a constructive results oriented result in china that processes outcomes over hopeful aspirations. While we work with china on areas of interest such as humanitarian assistance and halting the spread of infectious diseases, beijing undermines our interest and those of our allies and partners. Instead of a leadership role, china has economic and geopolitical positions in the region. Unfortunately, theyve fallen flat for china and the recipient and the funding, which rarely has been assistant or Market Driven has begun to dry off. Chinas projects come with opaque terms and they do not promote shared Economic Prosperity touted by the government. And using local labor force is poor and china does not sufficiently engage a local contractor, provide enough jobs for local workers. These run counter to National Policies in places like saudi arabia, bahrain, oman, for the local labor force and create jobs. The u. S. And middle eastern governments want Infrastructure Development to benefits local communities, but the promise of High Quality Development with low shortterm costs such as the promises that china made at the forum ring hollow when chinas track record is so poor. From burma, to tanzania, they look at places like india. Not every investment project is maligned, but projects that dont meet the high standards of organizations like the g20 will not produce the desired results. The most notable, the disastrous outcomes of Chinese Investment projects in sri lanka, ecuador, with debt, corruption, some cases chinese control. In contrast, the u. S. Has enabled egypt, israel, jordan, tunisia to access over 21 billion in bonds for differential markets at preferential rates. They help key players fiscal stability and supporting Economic Reforms that encourage Sustainable Growth and Foreign Investment the unlike china and russia, the u. S. Designed to help people build better lives. One example, 2016 u. S. Aid helped eliminate polio in egypt. And aiming to keep egypt polio free. And brought sanitation water, 1. 5 million egyptian girls can read and write better thanks to u. S. Support for early grade reading. There are many more examples of u. S. Assistance programs in the the region, to iraq, and building capability in enhance security and stability, providing essential services and response of government and driving economic reform and growth. Power total foreign assistance exceeds 7 billion a year. As we look to digital and connected World Economy we need to pay more attention to the risks that compromise telecommunication that telecommunication for places like huawei. They noted the National Intelligence law, compelling citizens and businesses and organizations to cooperate with chinese intelligence and security services, to keep such cooperation secret. That means government agencies, connif confidential data, and if transmitted on huawei or other china equipment. There are now media reports that huawei participated in spying operations even without the governments knowledge. On the human rights front, we want to focus attention on chinas highly repressive campaigns again the uighurs, and others. Since april of 2017, the Chinese Government has, by our estimates detained 1 Million People in internment camps for cultural or religion practices. Chinese highly repressive campaign is far beyond the camp. There are dramatic increases in security personnel, embedding of security personnel in peoples homes and collection of dna and biodata. Outside of its borders, china coerces members of the minority muslim groups to forcibly return asylum seekers. Were disappointed by the number of arab countries writing a letter praising chinas actions. We have welcomed the fact that turkey has concerns about the situation and welcome qatars decision to withdraw its signature from the letter and hope others will follow. We have yet to see china or russia with principled actions in the region. They reject the rights of conscious, theyre unconcerned about human suffering and reject the rights of conscious that we believe that the people in middle east and north african region value so dearly. Our positive vision for the u. S. For the region, based on something that russia or china cannot match. We believe that fighting corruption and promoting rule of law, both of which are necessary for that growth to be sustainable, unwavering commitment has strengthened america and we want it to strengthen our partners as well. Our actions seek to equip our partners to face modern challenges with a visin anchore vision. And we understand that a country is most successful when its people are free and prosperous. American companies can bring in the latest technology and business methods and we want to build lasting partnerships with companies and governments of the region. Were interested not in just building physical infrastructure in the region, but also in the development of human capital, government capacity needed to power longterm growth, creating Economic Opportunity abroad is not only in our National Security interest, it opens markets and general rates reven. Its a winwin. The United States has contributed working last all sectors to foster stability and prosperity, while they seek chaos and destruction. Russia provided less than 100 million in humanitarian aid in the middle east. In 2008 china announced billions for business, but only millio millions. Andkey theres a frustrating history of violating National Norms by russia and china instead of improving has worsened in recent years. Were committed to a vision of shared prosperity, regional and global stability and lasting partnership. The global context in which the middle east sits changed during the years. The emergence of Great Power Competition has a new Strategic Vision and we have one i think is compelling. Secretary pompeos articulated how the United States is and will remain a force for good in the region. As we look to the future, we need to look at the region in new light and look to middle eastern government to be partners on regional challenges and its a challenge that the United States is wellpositioned to lead. So thank you. [applaus [applause]. Sorry to say, i wont be taking any questions. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] good morning. Im very happy to see how many friends in the audience. Thank you very much all for being here with us and anticipate to what i think is going to be an extremely interesting panel. Not wasting more time, i would go directly to the panelists and introduce them one by one at the moment they speak and then were going to have the floor to you. We wanted to limit as much as possible the remarks so as to give you all the opportunities to ask all the questions you want to have, feel free. They are giving all of their availability. So take advantage of the scholars who are here today. Id like to start with william wechsler, hes the director for the middle east and middle east programs at the Atlantic Council. His most recent was secretary for special effects and battling terrorism. And secretary for defense for narcotics and global threats. Special advisor during the Clinton Administration and Previous Service as director for transnational threats on the National Security stuff. He has from columbia university. Well, thank you very much kareem. My understanding is whatt were going to do. Im going to discuss what we see in the middle east and turn to my copanelists and talk about the European Response to those conflicts. Its my understanding that the most important dynamic thats driving a lot of the decisions and actions in the middle east right now and has been for some time is the widespread perception of american withdrawal. This is exacerbated today by the actions of our president , but it would be wrong to solely blame this dynamic on our current president. This has been a long time coming. Im going to give you a little context of why i believe this and im going to start with a little anecdote. This is dated back from november of 1967 when britains minister of state and Commonwealth Office visited the gulf region and he had a really Important Message to give. He said with all sincerity and all conviction, having had all the discussions he needed to back in london that despite some rumors that people were hearing, despite some assessments of the current financial situation of britain, despite some problems they recently had, that there was no thought of withdrawal in their minds. That so long as was necessary, britain would remain in the gulf to ensure the peace and the stability of the area. All the actors heard him say this, were very much reassured and then two months later, the british Prime Minister announced that all British Forces would be leading east of east of suez, sorry. This was the founding moment for many of the countries in the gulf and they remember this very well and they are looking at whats happening today and theyre seeing it through this lens. Talk just a brief moment because theres a great irony in all of this. And the irony is that the american perceptions of our interest in the region have been actually by policy makers, by experts have been consistent for many decades. And the physical ramifications of that, the physical evidence of that in terms of our presence is to deal with those interests and has not changed. So its very frustrating, just like it was frustrating in our british counterparts 50 years ago, to hear constant questions from the region about american withdrawal. Look around, look at our military, look at our diplomacy. Look at our Economic Impact and our intelligence resources. America is tremendously committed to the gulf. Why do you keep saying this . And all of us who traveled around the world see this again and again. Look at our interests. And our interests are very simple and they derive most importantly from the regions position as driver of Energy Resources. In addition to the Regional Focus of our global policies that we dont want anybody to have the will and capacity to attack the United States and we dont want anyone to dominate the eurasian land mass. The United States wants the Energy Resources to continue to be extracted and wants them to find their way to the market unmolested especially on the maritime domain and watch general prosperity. For my entire lifetime, thats basically, for the most of it, thats described what the United States is looking for and the United States has been generally a status quo power for most of that time, to most of our most of our military and diplomatic interventions in the region with important, but minor exceptions have been to been to uphold or return to the status quo ante. That has started to change in the last three administrations. So the last four president in a row have all campaigned saying they wanted to do list in the world and in particular in the middle east than their predecessor did. After a while people in the region start to hear that message. After bill clinton came into office he came here to do a a review of the middle east and actually came up with a dual containment policy that basically return to the traditional american approach. George w. Bush had it forced upon them with 9 11 and he decided to take a market due to work from traditional american policy at instead of acting to uphold the status quo he went to undermined the status quo and change the status quo. Again his use but Energy Resources were in no way different from those in the region and from traditional views that was unnerving to people in the region. President obama did not take that long time to do an assessment of the middle east but instead quickly went to cairo and set some very powerful things about americas role, relationship with muslims in the world that did not reflect these longstanding traditional views of what american interests were in the region and instead laid at his priorities which he then bind large went on to fulfill about working with iran to make a nuclear deal, about the prioritizing some of the issues that people in the region thought should be higher priorities. Even more than that the view from the region was that there was a degree of unpredictability in the Obama Administration. Whether it was calling a red light in syria, use of chemical weapons and then not doing it, whether was abandoning mubarak and quickly accepting him and the moslem brotherhood in the weather was unnerving to them. Whether was not intervening in syria in a way that people come to expect American Leadership to do or not intervening in iraq until mosul had already fallen from islamic state. Unfortunately, the region, leaders in the region were so excited at the prospect of obama leaving office of the allowed themselves to be made that President Trump would represent a return to normalcy and american traditions. If anything of course he has proven for more erratic and for more willing to up and these traditional longstanding decades long views of american policy towards the middle east. After going to every single one but its clear very recently in syria, continuing the process start in the Obama Administration of a long russia backing which again was in the thing in the Carter Doctrine and in the reagan reef like it was one of the reasons why we were there, was to keep russia out as assistant secretary schenker just sent. Just said. What trump is that if more that cuts into the traditional view of u. S. Interest, and thats questioning our commitment to traditional approaches towards energy issues. He came into office believing that as a result of the iraq war we should taken the oil from iraq. He communicated it public and he said it privately to iraqis leaders. This is something that one could not imagine for the last seven decades of american policy. More recently he has public the question whether the United States should be part of, should have as one of its core responsibilities the protection of the free flow and the free navigation of Energy Resources through the strait of hormuz. And again 20 of all the worlds Energy Resources goes through the strait of hormuz. Theres no other entity aside from the United States back to protect that. Calls for Energy Independence are sound good politically, matter when it comes to protecting the United States from another party cutting off our Energy Supplies in the time of crisis like we did to japan before world war ii. But you do not any way affect the global price of oil which what affects the American Economy and inflation. Its a good part is reason why we are doing this in the first place. No president before President Trump has called us into question and hes done so very, very publicly. If youre in the region, what you say is despite american interests, despite our presence, america is withdrawing. You heard this loud and clear picky seat in our actions. What does this mean . What this means is that they have to start taking actions in response to that. That perception is driving reality. It means that parties in the region are building their own capabilities, building their own military capabilities, building their own intelligence capabilities, building their own cyber capabilities. It means theyre that started e capabilities. The historical norm is wisdom lags the development of new capabilities. The likelihood of using these capabilities in ways that turn out to be unwise goes up significantly. They are building new relationships across the region. They are hedging the decline of american powered by building new relationships with other external powers. Assistant secretary schenker can bemoan, quite active in many cases, the implications of russian and chinese power in the region. But that doesnt change the fact every single actor, friend and foe alike, are building out those relationships. I mean, if you go to israel today, on the front is a huge poster of netanyahu with President Trump. On the back is a huge poster of net knock you netanyahu with putin. It was inconceivable a a decade ago and thats the world that were in today. Actors are building out new spheres of influence not only within the middle east but in the near abroad as well. The result of all of these actions is a region that is less secure, less stable, less predictable, more prone to crises that could create interstate violence, more prone to situations that could block the movement of energy across the maritime domains, more prone to situations where Energy Production itself can break down, and less likely to be highly economically advanced in the years to come. That is the opposite of all of the u. S. Interests for the last number of decades. That is all being driven by this perception of american withdrawal. I have the pleasure to introduce the ambassador. She has been ambassador from 2014 at 2018 and is today senior fellow at the Washington Institute and near east policy and director of the program on politics. During her diplomatic career she has served in highest position from foggy bottom, and abu dhabi she served as Deputy Assistant secretary of state at his deputy of director of use construction and a bastion of iraq and served in the department as director of the officer yanez this. I remember those lunches where we talk about freshly politics with good italian food. That was fantastic. I miss those days. Sorry apel, paris, jerusalem, portauprince, ambassador leaf. Thank you. Thank you thank you very much,. Im not sure am going to have come strike any lighter note than will did. I hope not to drive you into despair, but i will say im going to take sort of a closer in look at u. S. Policy in actions under the Trump Administration. So with the great historical backdrop that will provide, what i would say about the region is theres a greater and greater sense of fragility. I would argue perhaps the point as to whether the u. S. Engagement produces that, or whether and, indeed, whether the u. S. Has the ability to effect some of the events that are going on in the region. It certainly theres a sense of lack of u. S. Leadership and a quickening sense of u. S. Disengagement. But i will go further and say theres an incoherence about the administrations essential National Security goal for the region. As will noted, for literally four decades, securing global Energy Supplies and deterring or contesting any effort by either an outside power such as the soviet union or Regional Power such as iraq in 1990, dominate the region, was an undergirding principle for republican and democratic administrations until the Trump Administration. This administration has rather focused its approach to its region around three essential pillars, countering isis, countering iran, and bolstering come deepening the strategic relationship with israel. You hear very little else from the administration about burning issue such as libya, yemen, egypt and so on, jordan. But the administrations own erratic steps, failures to act at times and succession to the destructive activities of external actors have undermined the seri pillars. So if we take the effort against isis. As you know the Trump Administrations inherited campaign against isis that was well underway prosecuted to conclusion with the dissection of the caliphate, apple and rocket and october 2017 and then Mosul Liberation in december. But at that time and intel today important vestiges of isis remained on both sides of the border and, in fact, there is a deepening concern in iraq about the degree to which isis is a reforming and going beyond the sort of hit and run insurgencies phase. But in syria those large minutes of isis, tens of thousands of fighters across the country, remained a focal point for use efforts and, indeed, we had troops there sustaining the effort alongside Kurdish Forces to clear out and hold those territories, and u. S. Forces were also there of course to continue to train and improve the capabilities of the Kurdish Forces to keep isis at bay. Twice in the past year, however, weve seen the president after a phone call with president erdogan reverse this and announce that the fight against isis was over and he would withdraw troops. So obviously the repercussions flow in all directions. In the first instance its a battering, destructive blow to u. S. Credibility. Credibility in terms of sticking alongside a fighting force that has lost upwards of 11,000 fighters and family members in the fight, in which was critical to destroy the caliphate in syria. You now see the way cleared for what is, can only be a highly stabilizing effort by turkey to ethnically reorder that whole band along the border and to create an arab belt where one doesnt exist. This will be in the throes of fighting. This will produce refugee flows and ages all return key concern from Iraqi Kurdish leaders about aspect of refugee flows coming as as a result of that fighting. Most importantly you have a very real prospect that some 11,000 isis fighters that the fdf is holding will be released or escape as the kurds turned to defend themselves. And then youve got what i always think of as the bellows affect, this kind of instability and reforming of isis or any other terrorist element. Bellows affect on iraq, which is itself in a fragile state as we saw this past week with the protest. On the second big pillar, countering iran, i wont go into detail about what you all know very well which is the administrations approach to countering iran which essentially has been built around a crushing scent of sanctions. Its a powerful tool but its one that i certainly dont believe has had almost any affect on irans activities in the region. Not in yemen, iraq, syria or lebanon. And even the closest allies of the u. S. Have increasingly wondered over the past year where the sanctions would go, what was the on that, what was the roadmap. There didnt seem to be one. But i would say the most troubling thing for me in terms of the failure of the administrations iran policy has been this last eye or six months. So months. So essentially since the administration announced in april that it would work to grind iranian world exports to zero, tehran essentially took that as a declaration of economic war and decide to test the proposition of whether washington could be the only one with a maximum Pressure Campaign. And, indeed, over the course of the summer, especially following, i think, following the make this announcement by john bolton at the u. S. Would use unrelenting force to respond to any attack on u. S. Interests or those of partners, tehran immediately move to test that publishing and it did so repeatedly throughout the summer, attacks on tankers, attacks on the eastwest nightlight in saudi arabia, harassment of tankers, detention of tankers and so what. And these were in the usual way thinly veiled efforts by the iranians, but just beneath the satchel of deniability. But i think beneath the threshold of deniability. September 14, for the first time, and i mean i struggle to think of any other time except back in the the 1980s during te tanker wars when you had an attack directly from iran launched on a golf country, in this case saudi arabia. And it wasnt a minor below. It was what measure could be deemed strategic attack. So the face of this cat and mouse attacks, and then following the september 14 attack, you had real messaging incoherence. I keep coming back to that word, because you have had the president on the very day of the taxing we are locked and loaded, ready to respond, depending on what saudi arabia wants us to do. And then reverting hours later to public musings about the fact that fortune with the u. S. Is no longer dependent on oil dot dot dot. So to say the least gulf oil. Tehran could be forgiven for believing there is in effect no redline for the administration. Finally, the relationship with israel. I would say is in a very curious place. On the one hand, the administration has demonstrated Political Support for the netanyahu government, and over the course of time has delivered gifts of enormous importance to israel, movement of the u. S. Embassy to jerusalem, recognition of israels sovereignty over the go long, and the two plush punishing years of actions against Palestinian Authority plus. But on the other hand, were israel calculates its face of one of the most critical National Security threats, visavis iran and iran suffered to essentially pass advanced Missile Technology has become israel has large event on its own or its worked with moscow. Its not work with washington. It has worked with moscow such that it could essentially direct itself kinetically to the prom in syria and lebanon. And then in a single week in august if you go by media reports, israel struck three arab countries to disrupt the same progress. Ill come back to the announcement this week, the last couple of days, that by the president that he would withdraw troops from syria. That we had been there too long, that it was long past due time to bring them home. That decision right there undermines all three goals. Its a win for isis its a win for iran, and needless to say damascus and moscow. Its deeply unnerving to u. S. Partners. Israel has made it clear it doesnt care about the number of troops in syria. Once the u. S. Flag there as an important impediment to iran. And, of course, its deeply disturbing to the gulf allies who seek see further evidence s sort of head snapping policy reversals by the president , and its clear were expanding use blood and treasure to extend any kind of security umbrella for q2 for close allies. So no one is charge in the region heretofore. Not that weve always been in charge as such but we weve ha, weve exercised, when we been successful weve had an ability to corral countries, likeminded countries to a big effort. Any isis, the county basis campaign is only the most recent. But a critical one. And i would argue that had the u. S. Not step forward in 2014, iraq would have fallen to isis within that first year. All the best efforts would not have been able to deliver for the kind of campaign that we brought together with 70 plus countries, with the airpower and ice are and Everything Else that we brought to the site. Russia will not do that. China will not do that. There is no other organizing power. And so i would conclude by saying i agree very much with will that this is a disruption of four decades at least of u. S. Leadership even if, yes, i do take the point that Obama Administration, too, showed in the view of many allies, showed a certain fecklessness, but, but there is nothing like what we are experiencing today. And i would just note, you know, i left baghdad last sunday. The unrest started monday, tuesday. No coincidence. [laughing] that it was bubbling and then it roared into life. And there is been virtually no attention by the administration to what is really seismic and to generally violent interactions by protesters and Security Forces. Its quite remarkable. The president is tweeting about turkey and defending what he did, and, frankly, confusing everyone to a greater degree with every tweet. Its really unclear at this point what exactly we are doing and what exactly we will accept in terms of turkeys moves. But theres been virtually no attention to a country which is wracked by the most serious unrest since the arab spring. I will and their. Thank you. Thank you very much. Our third speaker is doctor haizam amirahfernandez. Hes a a Senior Analyst at the outcome will institute. He has lectured at madrid, georgetown university, settlers university and university of oslo. His work for United Nations in new york and for human rights in washington, d. C. Thank you much, karim, and thank to the Atlantic Council having me and think the invitation. Ive been asked to talk about the eu Foreign Policy towards the region ongoing share with you a few ideas along with the three or four different ones. First of all structural limitations of eu Foreign Policy in general and especially comes to southern neighborhoods. Second, a paradox of the eus for an action and its importance and relevance. Third, the current context in the mena region and how it is viewed from the european fight and finally some great ideas about the incoming new commission that will start operating on november 1 and watch this new orientation as near commission. To start with the question is does europe have a Strategic Vision as the title of the conference, doesnt have a Strategic Vision towards the middle east and north africa . My quick answer is no, it doesnt have a Strategic Vision. There are multiple visions at different points in time for multiple visions within the eu itself. And there is pressure strategy the limit. Let me start with the motivation. There are 28 member so far. It does mean that are 20 visions the sometimes get lots, yet different groups the form allies uncertain issue. The paradox is the following. Its a heavyweight in the southern neighborhood when it comes to uncoated and like i cannot relations for sure, the largest economic parter of southern neighborhood by far, resources, the human contacts, diplomatic efforts to just count the number of missions, diplomats both of the european delegations and national delegations, the effort that is made. And cooperation aid, et cetera, et cetera. So its a heavyweight in those domains. Then its a dwarf. Its time and inefficient when it comes to other issues of trying to shape or to transfer its immediate neighborhood and to forbid any positive way. This is the main paradox. Another paradox is the eu as normative actor or power trying to transform or to converge the southern neighborhood, and remember back in 1995 the launching of the socalled barcelona process, the United States partnership. I would say it was less time you write vision, as such specifically for the southern mediterranean. There was a diagnosis which still holds large extent unfilled. But the was a paradox and the paradox with the following. So in order to make those southern political systems, closer and build a neighborhood that has shared prosperity, stability and peace, it was done voluntarily way. So all clauses that were included in the partition agreements were never used ever with any single southern mediterranean country, which means that europe did business as usual. There were abuses and there were excessive and violations of human rights, et cetera, but they have no real cost. The discourse was supporting human rights, defending democracy, building the neighborhood with shared values. No, it was not a neighborhood of shared values, for sure. The eu is good at advancing convergence when theres political will and the commendation, and this has proven itself repeatedly but its much less effective at a group when theres a big gap between words and deeds. I think the metatrain train is one of those places where those caps are really brought. Second Foreign Policy anywhere in the world requires certain elements like capacity for decisionmaking, implementation capacity, legitimacy, credibility. This is a problem for the eu in the southern neighborhood. For sure the decisionmaking capacity of the eu institutions, its really good when it has to do with majority and decisions are made by classified majorities, trade for instance, strong in those domains. But its week when consensus is required. Foreign and Security Policies so far have been consensusbased like basically, floor denominator. And ill make reference about the Incoming Commission and consensus or qualified majority when comes to Foreign Policy. We see that there is a decline in u. S. International relevance. I think that is clear and there is a conscious about it itself. Brexit is not helping for sure. Economic decline or relative decline compared to other emerging economic powers, among different European Countries are forming blocks and some of them basically eurosceptic or antieuropean antieuropean forces within some Member States in the u. S. , which i think lack of coherence is something that is affecting your when looking at the seven meta train for obvious role the u. S. Has played for decades but the unreliability and i think this is, turns out has been more and more is u. S. A reliable partner for your . So would go further and question whether the u. S. Is an ally of europe as a group, as the projects, whether it is and anr and for sure mediterranean and southern neighborhood. A few comments about the context in the southern neighbors of the eu. I think eus contradictions are becoming more evident in the mediterranean. Due to the transformation of threats and specification of challenges and referring to the content in the region with the growing ability of threats, complex and fragility, not only state fragility but Society Cohesion fragility across the region to different degrees. So everything thats happening in the southern neighborhood, europe has Immediate Impact on europe itself and sometimes this is forgotten. It has an impact, and effect. Migration the economic or refugee flows, well, we have seen for the past few years how it is affected and deeply condition the method politics to certain European Countries. Terrorism, that is rooted or linked to the southern neighborhood. The negative perceptions that are conditioning, you know, actually that are very powerful in shaping policies and action of government and individual national governments. And the far right movements for the national populist parties that we have seen in several countries, including my own, spain, for the first time after franco with representation in parliament, those movements have Different Reasons but for sure something happening in the southern mediterranean has a very important impact for some of these regions. So very quickly, the eu after the arab uprising or the arab awakening what if you want to call in 2011, i think theres a massive strategic confusion in the eu after the 2011. Mac. That confusion is clear when reading documents and officials, communications by the commission went also reading the european global strategy and going back and forth, yet it supports certain things the sunday know we are back to business as usual to the old authoritarian stability paradigm. I think the eu has been acting as a and as missed the opportunity for building or trying to advance new model of stability. I think the eu is to ask itself the question of what kind of neighborhood we would like to live in in the coming five, ten, 20 years. Without having the answer to the question of without having the resources and political will to shape the region in that direction, obviously most likely eu into Something Different from where you would like to be. Quickly, the eu today when dealing with the southcom i think its living in denial and that something that for whatever reason shortterm policies or electoral calculations by european politicians, the eu may be getting a bit too late to prevent deeper shots in the region. And with deeper shots, deeper consequences as well for the eu itself. One thing that is missing and a lot of analyses when looking at north africa, at the middle east is a socioeconomic transformations that are happening. And why these are creating in what youre saying that in iraq egypt and jordan algeria, you know, for 34 weeks now. This is something i think we are not paying attention when we talk about the big picture geopolitics, power competition, et cetera, et cetera, but what about the hundreds of millions in most of them youth and how sustainability is the society . One last comment about the incoming, the new commission i was listening tomorrow, sorry, yesterday morning to the hearing of the new already confirmed Vice President of the commission at the european parliament, and this idea of having a new commission that is geopolitical, that as he said yesterday that europe has to use the language of our and to use it when needed. The idea of also moving towards qualified majority decisions that have to do with Foreign Policy and not only unanimity or consensus, which has been i think one of the main problems for eu for action. And for the fact that the eu is finding itself in a new situation where there are competition between the u. S. China. Russia is in a way back and suddenly the eu is not clear what role is expected from it and what is the best positions that it should in which position it should be. We see tariffs and other things that are being imposed on you. We see harsh language used against european allies. Let me say allies in a strange way, and the lack of communication, this is not from this administration by the way. You have to go back maybe a few years, but, so all this will have impact on eu Foreign Policy especially the south. The eu is the first 12 south no matter how i think reality and events will prove that the eu will be tracked, to be forced by the events that most likely will happen will take place with five years commission. Im sure theyre going to see a lot of things happen in southern neighborhood. So thank you very much. Theres a lot of food for thought. Im sure we have a lot of questions, so i will pass it to you and, barbara. Dr. Fernandez. Thank you so much, Barbara Slavin here at the Atlantic Council. To our european guests, you didnt mention the iran experience and im wondering how the eus did with the fact that it seems incapable of really challenging u. S. Secondary sanctions . What is the thinking now Going Forward . Is there still any hope to salvage the jpl 08 guaido president macron has been very active but what about the eu . How it is supporting are not supporting his efforts . Thanks. Take another question. Im a supporter of the president , of President Trump, president of the u. S. If you had the president here, and im addressing this to any of you who care to answer his question, if you had the president s ear in light of your worldview or specifically in the middle east, what would you advise him to do . Any other . Intelligence analyst and former diplomat. Normally when this sort of thing happens there is a concomitant increase in covert operation capability as sort of a leave behind network or slight offset for the damage that is being done by the withdrawal. Do you feel that trump is so bent on this that he might not allow even that, that there will be no offset increase in covert capabilities simultaneously . Ambassador, i think. Do you mean in, with specific regard to iran, syria . Im thinking syria, the ypg, the turks. I mean, clearly turkey has to expand to cover some of this damage of our departure, and theyre probably delighted to do that because they can kill more ypg. So you want me to ill start with a couple thoughts on that and bear with me, i got in this morning at 3 a. M. , nikon, from california, and so in california was for a couple of days as all of this was unrolling, unraveling. I think there is great nonclarity within government as to where the president wants to go on this issue. It was a surprise apparently to erdogan as a was in december when the president announced that he was going to pull all the troops home, and then hes not, and then he is, or hes moving 100 out of the way, out of the way so that turkey can move in. Its quite confused. I suspect given the upper on the hill and the strong pushback, expert counsel from dod and others in state, cia, i suspect that there will be a stepping back from this posture of taking everybody out. But it remains very unclear what turkey intends to do. And turkey has been fulminating about its intentions to move in that zone and clear out the ypg and so on. And i see no evidence i see no evidence that that has been at this point choreographed in any manageable way. And, indeed, if we choreographed it with the turks, and it looks like we are essentially, you know, embedding, theyre going after our allies, its very confused. To the gentleman question about what would i tell the president , advise, yes. I mean, you know, as a diplomat i would tell the secretary of the state or to any number of my bosses my thinking. But look, i would say slow down, get a grip on your messaging. The messaging, the public messaging is itself so destructive right now. It is injurious. Somebody mentioned, or maybe trying to mention, is the u. S. Reliable . Thats a profound questions or if we are not reliable, not reliable for our friends, not reliable for people who fought sidebyside with us, i mean its so destructive. If isis researches, whos going to join that coalition with us . We could not even get a maritime operation underway this summer in the clear face of iranian attacks on international shipping. We could make it people to join our efforts. So slow down and formulate and this is the kind of stuff he really doesnt like to do, but formulate an approach that works with partners, and that would be europeans, both partners. We should have been able to essentially, following septemben able to briskly isolate iran publicly, politically, diplomatically. Which is not to say steady on, carry on with sanctions like, you know, there were a whole series of things that he should have done and that was begun at the u. N. And has kind of frittered away. And my fear is, frankly, that why did i ran to this . Its feeling squeezed as number of iraqi coterie officials dealt with iran said look, iranians feel, its like a like a dyingu can go quietly or you can do one big kick and struggle before and maybe delay death, et cetera. Divert. If we dont do anything else on iran but steady as she goes on sanctions, were going to have another go like this because the onus is on iran to keep disrupting this. You can answer the question specifically about europe, but about the covert action question. Its my experience that successful covert action programs require two things, require longterm planning in order to put them into place and require a partner that has the deep trust that the United States is going to be there for a long period of time. Neither of those are evident at all in the current circumstances. So i cant, i would be shocked if, even if the president wanted to come if we would be successful at balancing withdrawal of military by increasing our covert action, much less just the platforms the military provides an order for covert action to be successful. So i wish that was a good potential solution what i dont see it. As far as to recommend to the president , and this isnt necessarily im not going to say just change all of your pulse is because i disagree all of them, but if i was an adviser to the president there are basically three things that really did to change. First, decide what your goals are of your iran policy. Is it to have regime change . Is it just to increase the pain that the iranians are perceiving . Is it to advance the probability of successful negotiations for a better deal . If it is of the latter, both the palm was and the structure of the maximum Pressure Campaign have not been design towards that end. So it is not clear to me that the Trump Administration and President Trump and self has actually conclude what the goal of the campaign is. Secondly, decide what your red lines are with iran. You know, the basic essence of deterrence is that you would want to get your adversary to understand that you both to will and the capacity to enforce your own bread lines. During the cold war at any given moment there were literally thousands of people that were working on that part of the equation of deterrence. Do the soviets ratably that we would trade new york for berlin . Do they really believe that we have the will . We are not at that point with iran because they dont even know what our redlined or. The reason why they dont know is because we dont know where our redlined are. In the aftermath of the recent attacks, both on taking down Unmanned Aerial Vehicle and, President Trump has twice tried to publicly describe what red lines were. The first time he said a redlined would be if iran kills any american. And then undoubtedly, it was explained to them that sounded a lot like his predecessors we quickly change and said if they attack anything american. So surprise, surprise after a given period of time their minister said okay, we will attack something that is not american. What they are doing is slowly and methodically and with the flimsiest of deniability moving up the escalation ladder to try to identify where the american redlined might be and to create a note of property right below those red lines. A very dangerous situation because we dont know them, in the first place. And a third thing i would say is in order to answer both of these questions is the president needs to have a process, internally that helps them deliberate. That says what are the pros and cons of each option, what are the risks and advantages of each. One of the common stores throughout this administration is that this president , unlike virtually all of his predecessors to simply does not have that kind of process and makes it extremely difficult to understand what the second and Third Order Effects of every decision that he makes. Iran and the nuclear deal. Obviously of european diplomacy it was success in the sense it proved multilateralism and diplomacy works at that moment in order to deal with one of the most pressing issues or threats of the International Scene at the time. The fact that only one of the signatories of the jcpoa decided to withdraw unilaterally has put the eu and a very difficult position. The eu as a group but also those eu members more involved in the agreement and obviously president macron of france has been trying to say whatever is possible may be changing, jcpoa, i mean the j with fd. Not joint comprehensive plan of action but the trump compress a plan of action has worked in other places with other things. So why not try to bring together but obviously at this link to what will was thinking when there is no clarity youre dealing with Iranian Regime. Masters of escalation, and they know how to play their cards even being weak ones. For europe its a big dilemma and its a problem, a big problem. Obviously, i think europe is waiting for november 2020, trying to have the least damage possible or trying to save as much as possible of that nuclear deal, trying to maintain channels open with Iranian Regime and the weight of stay there, lets try to do something. But it cannot alienate the u. S. For obvious reasons. Well, i ran is not that relevant and the board in economic terms and missing all these sanctions and tariffs and all these things and obviously there are dimensions that have to do with the gold, the Arabian Peninsula as well. The gulf. It was a reference earlier, look at the level of confrontation that eu countries and the u. S. Itself set the conference. When friends and, see that, that is not the way of doing it, so who is the u. S. Left with with this whole nuclear deal . And whats the alternative . Maximum pressure, fine. Maximum resistance, but the alternative is maximum war. For europe that would be catastrophic. Thank you. One year. Here. Listening to what david said this morning and your presentation, two points, one is United States is withdrawing from the region. It doesnt want to be involved in the region issues that at the same time we hear the complaint about the presence of china and russia. The withdrawal was clear for a cap and this gap has to be filled. What would the american policy if the chinese and the russians would be more force, build more relations, maybe military bases in the region . Thank you very much. And one day or. One there. Thank you so much. My question to ambassador, im just talking about what weve heard yesterday withdrawing american troops from Northern Syria. Is the president series about destroying the turkish economy when he said if turkey attacks Northern Syria will will destroy the economy . Was that type of deterrence or just assuring the kurds of that . Thank you so much. Georgia nicholson, the representative for Global Special Operations forces here you alluded to trust. Admiral mcraven said you can surge forces but you can surge trust. Just like ambassador ryan crocker said, look what we did in pakistan, convincing the pakistani government to support operations against the russians in afghanistan. But when the left pulled the plug on the f16 sales. We kicked their Junior Officers out of our schools in the state and we kicked their officers out. Look what we did to the shah of iran. We convinced him to leave rather than have the civil war. But we can do to cancer, remember the huge leading into the country to get catcher treatment and would drop kicked and dad to panama where he was terrified he is when you get sold out by noriega. Even other examples going back to vietnam, we said okay we believe that provide you all this military assistance and trust. Two years later cover said we change our mind, cut off. Effectively giving back the concept if we dont have trust, how can we expect in the future that were going to a buddy after the police what were going to do . Im representing party of iranian kurdistan can wash and dry the question of ambassador leaf. Why we see aggression saudi arabia [inaudible] how much volatile saudi arabia and other gulf countries come saudi arabia cannot defeat insurgency in four years in yemen. So what would be the wise and reasonable response to irans aggression . How politically and militarily calculate . Obviously, limited military strike can help iran. Thank you. To your question, well, i could start by saying it never should have come to this, that i ran skipped up several rungs oe esculin tory ladder. And surprise everyone, the u. S. , the gulf countries come saudi arabia most of all. I wouldnt suggest a military response alleys of all by the sound is. They would get themselves into a mess by the rapidly and understand that. As much as it was an act of war, it will not do saudi arabia or our other partners in the good for them to try that sort of approach. Thus, i think it requires a whole set of steps tha should, if not lead, due in very close coordination with the saudi and the varieties, thouh gcc family but frankly you have to widen it out because that strike was also a Strategic Strike on Global Energy supply. It is inherently of interest to the international community. I wouldve liked to have seen the administration very aggressively undertake diplomatic efforts with beijing, with tokyo, with other two countries, with your, again to isolate, put heat on iran. We certainly have a menu of covert options that we could exercise. Im not suggesting again getting into a shooting conflict between washington and tehran, but whether many of covert things we could do to pressure the regime but that also have a game plan for that pipit to negotiation, even in the aftermath of Something Like this you have to be thinking about that. Again, we should not have come to the point where the with such a disaster strike with no options in play. I think that was fulminating by the president. I dont think its any intention of wrecking turkeys economy, and im not sure we could as such. Analyzing my own side, i think the president was trying to defend against criticism that he had caved to erdogan and sold out an ally, and this ally which it been so critical for the defeat of isis, had been the most important factor, that we were about to sell them out or he had sold them out and they were going to be i think this was his effort to deflect that. There was another question. The trust issue. Fully agree, with the notion you dont surge trust. You have to have a good reservoir of trust in order to do, whether its covert actions or a coalition effort. Fortunately, and yes, u. S. History is littered with many examples of when we let partners down. Frankly, every country has that history. Unfortunately, people forget in when the crisis comes, they manage to come together. Your question about is it sort of fair enough if saudi arabia or other gulf countries look to better partners, i think was, you didnt say that but you were suggesting it. Good luck with that, is all i can say. Russia stands by its friends, Bashar Alassad, and wrecked one of the most glorious arab countries in the region. Great loyalty to Bashar Alassad but at a cost of half a million syrians dead and millions of lives separated. If you think swapping in moscow for washington is a good bet, i just, i wouldnt suggest it. And for china, you know, china, chinas rise is giving us all a lot of sleepless nights. Washington hasnt figured out friend or foe, competitor or rifle, enemy. We are going to figure it out here somewhere down the road in a couple of years i suspect, but again, i think the gulf countries in particular have to understand what is pushing a series of president s to think the way they do, which is more awareness on the part of the americans, but you all have to pull back, not rebuke as for leading the rather give us a reason to reengage. It is critical for all american foreignpolicy, particularly with counterterrorism policies. Anyone who has worked on counterterrorism for a long time knows the answer is direct action. It is not occupation of a foreign country or dropping hellfires from the sky, working through the local partners so that local partners can solve your terrorist problems or mutual terrorist problems. The only way that works is we have longstanding, persistent access, trust with these kinds of partners whether they be elements of the state or nonstate actors depending on the environment. It is the case that they make assessments about the trustworthiness of the United States not only because of the way the United States treats them but the way the United States treats others. The kurds around the world, you can get maybe the colombians have a better track record but very few. The kurds have a tremendously strong track record of working with the United States to effectively accomplish our mutual counterterrorism goals. Multiple countries, we are potentially leaving them to die experience. Russia and china, when i lived out what our interests are in the middle east, i dont believe russia shares any of them, what is in it for russian interests. That is the reason one of the great accomplishments in my lifetime in the middle east. And that is not good for the region or United States interests, china doesnt have a history in the middle east the way russia does. China shares our interests in terms of energy the way russia does as a consumer, very well influenced by Global Energy. The fundamental question, some parts of the world where it is hard to imagine in a couple decades the us and china not being an area of geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia and elsewhere, it is not clear the middle east has to be that way. It can be that way. I can paint you a picture in the next 20 years. It requires the United States and china when the middle east which we are not doing right now. A lasting about china, the audience in the middle east and especially audiences in many middle eastern leaders china presents an alternative model to the us. You can get everything you can get from the United States in terms of economic, technological benefits without complaints about human rights or democracy and china is perfecting the use of technology to restrain our own population. At some point that technology will be exported and there will be many parties in the middle east who will find themselves to be impacted by it and that is another set of problems we can anticipate in the future. The last thing about what to do with iran, four things, we have to reestablish deterrence. There is a role for kinetic action given where we might be. It is a minor role and proportionate role and we have to understand, i completely agree with you about what they did in saudi arabia, also important to understand what they didnt do. They took out facilities that were capable of being fixed. Others would be more difficult. They didnt kill people. It took effort, i suspect, not to kill people and what they did. They are trying to figure out where the levels are. If we were to do for instance the proposal that mind bogglingly got to the president s desk after the shootdown of the uav and attack them in their homeland, that from their perspective would be a vast improvement over killing individuals. We have to be very careful in the military actions that it is perceived to be proportionate but we need to reestablish deterrence because it is lost right now. The thing we do, we have to figure out a process to deescalate and it involves a third thing which is negotiations that involves the actions by our partners in the region, saudi arabia and others with their own efforts towards deescalation that we are talking about. None of these things i see happening. Deterrence in later diplomacy but the threat we see now, this is what you want to do. And priya from the basic interests, not the free flow of oil and they are up in the air, a big question. One more thing, the iranian this stated that if they were not allowed to export their oil, somebody else would be allowed to do it. The question is how much time for the pain felt by the iranian population would lead to an escalation that lost almost everything and dont forget we are approaching a moment of change in leadership. In iran at some point the leadership wouldnt have to change and it is not clear what the system is and 24 dialogues for negotiating and using some neighbors who see the danger of escalation and feel other neighbors there is a need to use them and the escalade and we are seeing that in the uae, they are trying to do something. Time is running very quickly without seeing the exits. That is contemporaneous and more aggressive position. One last question, two last questions. I will leave it there. Keep your hands up. Good morning, i am executive director of the American Islamic congress. My question is about what is your intake . What do you think the government will do in reaction to what is happening right now . We dont have time for more than that, go ahead. Go ahead. Go ahead. John anderson, policy analyst for Foreign Service. Longer term us mideast relations and potential future conflicts. In the aftermath of netanyahus declaration of annexation, israeli sovereignty over occupied golan, there was quite a reverberation in the arab press, and statements to the effect nothing so sure guarantees the next 100 years war or 500 years or as the israeli action, not just syrian press but in any case question about the formalization of what as far as i can understand with a policy declaration by donald trump, the future of us Foreign Policy and likelihood of bipartisan policy consensus in the us on recognizing formally that annexation and 2, policy councils in washington particularly europe and the reaction, i may have missed something but i would like to know if there is any statement from the Atlantic Council that the Washington Institute is well represented about has there been any kind of statement with regard to recognition and support for the israeli annexation . The question about iraq. The protesters, there were sort of sit in protests when i was there ten days ago that were not spreading or growing and so forth. They were protesting the classic trifecta of issues in iraq, jobs, services, lack of jobs, lack of services and corruption, deepening corruption. What seemed to cause this slow burning fuse to flareup was the abrupt dismissal of the senior Counterterrorism Service commander who was the hero of mosul, one of the most decorated and bravest commanders in the counter isis fight and created an uproar immediately because he was not only a much lauded beloved hero of this national effort, but he had rigorously set himself to cleaning up a lot of corruption. This is the most elite fighting force in the Iraqi Security forces. They had a lot of corruption. There was deep suspicion immediately that it was two elements pushing him out or pushing the Prime Minister to push him out. One venal general officer or others who found their rifle destroyed by his housecleaning efforts but also this was pressure coming from the proiranian militias so instantly this agitated and caused protests to really begin in force in baghdad. What set things going further was the immediately heavily handed response of Security Forces so you had casualties from the first day, not just use of teargas but live ammo from the first day and it got worse every day and you had this extraordinary, on thursday, this extraordinary attack on iraqi media centers. Masked men coming in, no idea whether they were government or not. There was a lot of suspicion, use of snipers on the rooftops, just extraordinary. I havent been able to watch a lot of the video streaming and because it is graphic and horrifying and it looked like the Prime Minister is not in control and it is not clear who these forces are but there is great suspicion that these are different hushed forces, the proiranian ones. At the close of the week, you had a couple missed opportunities, National Speech by the Prime Minister which just fell flat and an effort by the speaker of the parliament to get protests called by inviting them to send in delegation but you also had at the same time, it was already rife in public statements, this is an attack on the state and so forth. As opposed to angry men and women who were either unemployed or underemployed. Those doing the protest initially were University Graduates and unemployed youth. The center of a lot of the turmoil at starter city, militias saying bathas are not running around sadr city. You had this set of remarks by the president and emergency offers of public works and so forth but suffice it to say, it is a very volatile situation and the economic drivers of this are acute, but the overlay flash point is the unconstrained activity of these militias who are very corrupt entities feeding the public trust. Another question . I just have one more thing to say about iraq and we can talk about golan if you want. Lets break out what barbara said. Most of the people who were protesting which you can see by watching the videos were children when the United States invaded and occupied. This is all they known during this period. They dont seem to be, at least initially, driven by some of the issues the older generation were driven by, but driven by much more basic issues about their lives and their future. That is the first thing. The second thing is amongst the big problems here is the way the United States and the west in general thinks about iraq which is first and foremost they do not think about iraq. We are all sick in general of iraq. People trying desperately just like syria to think about anything else but this subject. That is a real mistake. No matter how we got here the future of the reason region look very different if iraq is minimally successful at having economy, having a democracy, having a sectarian way of doing politics than otherwise and that will have ramifications throughout the entire region for decades to come. The second thing, when we are in washington, engaged in iraq, we tend not to be engaged in iraq but in something else. We dont talk about iraq and iraqis and their future but about terrorism or iran or the fact that we want to win an argument that the iraq war was a mistake in the first place or an argument the surge was correct and obamas decision to withdraw was wrong. Those are the arguments we are having instead of looking forward about the future of iraq. The result is what you said. This amazing event has been going on, absolutely horrifying and the United States is basically absent at this point. Iraq, both of you, the demands of the population, young people, not only the invasion of iraq but the colored the arab spring happened and they were children, not allowed to go they are teenagers. They can go out and dont have the ideological background and transparency to have and talking about competition and whoever manages to have deed geoStrategic Vision that this is a central element that will shape the future of the region, better prepared to deal with the challenges in the region but also to be ready to take advantage of the opportunity as well in north africa, countries, transitioning to the purpose and the rules of the game and what we have not mentioned that there are 45 Million People asking for 34 weeks in a row to have a new social contract and new republic access so whoever has that vision is able to connect to these forces and try to help shape the future in a constructive way will have the advantage in the future. Thank you, join me in welcoming them and thank you very much. You deserve it. [applause] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] a break here for about ten minutes or so. We will show you a discussion how russia, china, iran and turkey changed the new goals of the middle east and how the us should respond, ten minutes away. Is this was getting underway donald trump tweeted this, we may be in the process of leaving syria but we cannot abandon the kurds who are special people and wonderful fighters. Our relationship with turkey, nato and trading partner has been good. Turkey had a Large Population and understands we have 50 soldiers remaining in that section of syria. Any unforced or necessary fighting will be devastating to their economy and for their fragile currency. While we wait for the conference on middle east policy to continue, remarks from the italian ambassador to the us. Italy, the United States, are drawn by shared beliefs. And most importantly, we are drawn by shared vision which is reflected in collaboration for International Political studies and very pleased this is the second of this productive collaboration. At the embassy, we are glad to be the link between that and to barter between organizing todays events, last year we focused on the middle region. In 2019 we move on. We will focus on the new Strategic Vision. Also in the light of increasing competition in the region. And the best opportunity for a broad discussion. And we have opportunities in the area. A quick overview of the state of play in the region in libya and crisis in syria and a renewed risk of terrorism not to mention the shadow golf tension passed over the entire region. And state fragility, we rather noticed the regional tensions, in different areas. The reappearance of an impending power competition. And in russia, present a new challenge which is that the court of our discussions today. Chinas influence, one could only harken back to what the foreign minister said in 2014, chinas political role in the middle east would only grow. There is no way back. What we see now is a strategic competition with china and russia boasting their engagement in the middle east in all areas, trade and investments, energy, and diplomacy. This multilayered challenge, with opportunities to face natural gas and Energy Revolution. Discoveries of natural gas across the region shaping a new reality. Used wisely this could be invaluable and potential in bringing together Key Countries like egypt, lebanon, cyprus, turkey and israel. However, it is fraught with danger as we can see by looming tensions. What happens in the Mediterranean Region does not stay there and the flood effects worldwide affecting stability across three continents, no one knows this better, against this backdrop todays discussion is most timely and throws into relief that they must find ways to address. We cannot stay idle. A Strategic Vision for the middle east to respond to increasingly conflict and challenges. Italy has a great role to play in this. We do not have a National Agenda in the region that could be seen as confrontational or in competition with others. Our goal is clear, stable and flourishing middle east, safe on the threat of terrorism and from the threat of becoming the battleground of proxy leaders. These count from our history. The fact that my country is spread across the mediterranean, having the opportunity to explain relations from different people and organizations, being able to understand and to listen is part of our dna. We are a key provider, security provider in the region starting with lebanon. Headed by Major General we also at the forefront, executed forces. On libya, a topic as you can imagine at the center of discussions, mike pompeo i remember very well many questions in european competition, with influence over the country and the region. I also remember this narrative was based on a misperception. On the margins of the recent gaap, in new york, italy and france, a ministerial meeting on leaking in the presence of the secretarygeneral. This paved the way for a broader meeting germany would host later this fall to support efforts of special representatives to stop facilities in the country and relaunch the process. Italy has always been one of the main contributors, 25,000 Iraqi Security personnel, to continue our support, posing on the ideology. Mainly in north africa in the region. Finally, i must mention italys unifying role in the un and nato. It is a key concept. It is integral part of natos comprehensive response to security challenge. There cannot be withdrawal from the middle east. This is the key to our collective security. Italy is ready to provide contribution, a path forward to more stable and prosperous view. For our strong, human and cultural bonds, our deep understanding of regional demandings, moving forward with food for discussion with our american friends in the framework of italy, us strategic data during the visit of our Prime Minister. Our quest for a common vision for the area is one of the main focuses of the meeting of mike pompeo. Where he met, and our foreign minister. In that respect, with the visit next week, we look forward to exploring at the highest levels, ways to strengthen cooperation between italy and the us. And this will be the second official visit for the us. And a strong friendship and strategic relations. Talking of dialogues, it is my pleasure to mention the dallas conference which turns 5 this year. Such an important event will be held in early december in rome. Rome met a landmark event, an annual gathering that brings together ministers and Civil Society and members of the media. This years theme to counter surprise beyond turmoil. So such an endeavor is neither naive nor unrealistic. As the region struggles, social tensions as well as regional and International Competition we must continue to strive for unity of intent at a common agenda. In italy, one of the first things we start in school is the critical importance of the fact the present. To define a new Strategic Vision for the middle east. We are ready for cooperation with the minister of foreign affairs, it is one of our partners, into the dialogue, in the second year, with distinguished speaker. Is the italian ambassador a series of meetings, regional meetings, around the world, we work on regional meetings, in abu dhabi and knows all, in new york, the end of this month. Coming to the panel, the informational players have always been pleasantly connected in the region but new policies because the International Context has changed and achieve new roles in the region. And this is come into question. Such a phenomenon has been ongoing for several years and accelerated. It is particularly evident that in the middle east and north africa region in 2011. When the United States choice to rebalance with forces and commitments abroad and away from the region, shifted the balance of power, and challenging the United States with the effectiveness as the provider of security leading to a sort of power vacuum other players attempt to feel and they allow for the essence saudi arabia and iran, each gain an increasingly the role on the middle east on stage and with multiple crises from libya to syria. It gradually extended to a match much a broader array of players. The rivalry between saudi arabia and iran for instance has an impact on the where they are fighting their proxy wars especially in yemen. Turkeys ability to Close Partnership with different players in the region and expended network of allies in the arab world increasing its influence and allowing to farther push its competition. On the other hand, more importantly, engagement in the region paved the way for russian resurgence. Potentially creates something new with distinguished guests, we will try to underline the role of russia, china and others in the middle east. The pleasure to introduce the director of defense for the middle east institute. We know on october 6th, a between trump who assisted in announced partial withdrawal of us troops from the Northern Tier of syria and trumps endorsement of plans to send their military force in the region but it is a broader view of regional politics. Thank you so much. Thank you for inviting me. It is a pleasure to be here. I wanted to talk about turkey, the broader regional role. I would like to talk about syria policy. I would like to give you an overview of the formation of turkey syria policy. The first thing i want to say is turkeys reaction to the policies turkey has pursued in syria must be seen against the backdrop of erdogans struggle over the one angle. It is all about domestic politics. Between 2002 when it came to power until 2011. 2008, 2007 and 2010 was the beginning of the arab uprising. It is a pragmatic policy in the region. Engaging with the regime, employing power instruments, pursuing closer ties with the west and playing and instructive role in regional conflicts with the syrian regime, close personal ties, invested heavily in syria and visa requirements, the two had joint cabinet meetings. The relationship was quite close. From 2002 until late 20102011, president erdogans ideology didnt play a prominent role. In all the region, didnt play a role in Regional Policy and turkey syria policy and the reason was president erdogan at the time was quite vulnerable. He was taking steps to consolidate power he was still vulnerable. Particularly the military and the judiciary which were seen as the bastian of it. They still call the shots. So unable to consolidate his power he had to because this. He couldnt afford to pursue this policy. Throughout those years turkey was stuck with the traditional turkish foreignpolicy. But of course starting from 2011, that changed. The uprising started. By the time it started in 2011, erdogan had consolidated his power. He had only silenced his secular opponents. The judiciary and the military had come under his control so he had a lot of room to maneuver in the arab uprising is particularly the conflict in syria played a catalyst role in his project of islamisation at home so this provided an opening for erdogan. The relationship between turkey and the regional policies and the role that it played in the arab uprising, the relationship is one to the other and in a way, islamisation in syria, the bureaucracy and syria charged from erdogans struggle. I hope that was clear enough. Okay, sure. Sure. So at home starting in 2011, the countrys education sector, he made sure the institutions for religious affairs became a huge bureaucracy, had a large budget and different social roles. He took steps to raise that generation and also change domestically. Starting from 2011 he paid more attention to islamic character when talking to foreign audiences in 2012 was a turning point in that regard, he talked about turkeys historic role as the leader of the muslim world so why he was pursuing those islamisation policies at home, the same regional policies in syria too. From the getgo he took a few months but in april 2011, a month after the uprising in syria started, in istanbul, turkey became from being turkeys foreignpolicy, all of a sudden president asad became enemy number one. Turkey became the organizational home for the Syrian Opposition and later on became major hottie highway and turkey started sending weapons and Financial Aid to the opposition groups and particularly the Muslim Brotherhood network in turkey that had been in turkey after the 1980s and that was when the Muslim Brotherhood members fled syria and settled in turkey so theres a Large Network of Muslim Brotherhood numbers in turkey so the group behindthescenes played a prominent role in turkeys efforts to topple the regime in syria. When the conflict started, turkeys number one priority was toppling the regime. And there was an open border policy so tens of thousands of people fleeing the conflict in syria. From 201120142015, turkey heavily supported Islamist Groups and turkey was behind islam state activities within its borders so turkey played a key role in the jihadisation of the conflict in syria and that is what erdogan was doing as well and it makes perfect sense because in his mind, finally through the arab uprisings, his islamist ideals were coming to fruition and he saw the arab uprising is an opportunity for turkey to become the leader of the muslim world. But his islamisation project hit a roadblock. So in 2015, in june 2015, elections for the first time in many years be atp lost its parliamentary majority and that was thanks to the rise of the party that captured a historic 13 in National Elections and that is behind the majority. That was when president erdogan switched to nationalism. He decided to ally with the turkish nationalists. The ceasefire that was in place for years broke down. Turkey decided to pursue a very handed military approach to the countrys kurdish problem and the shift in domestic calculations had a direct impact in the way erdogan saw the conflict in syria so from then on, i must mention starting from 2014 you see the United States started working very closely with the kurdish why pg and the islamic state. The military aides provided by americans to the syrian kurds boosted the kurds image, diplomatic and political image so that peaked the turkish threat perception. Given that change in the domestic scene, erdogans priorities starting from 2015 toppling the regime continued, nationalism became another priority. Toppling the regime came after that. Starting from 2015 you see working closely with the regimes allies which despite a brief period of tension, and russia in an effort to curtail kurdish nationalism. In 2016 turkey launched its first incursion into syria to prevent a region in Northern Syria after a green light from russia and in 2018, with another turkish enclave. And another green light. And the deescalation source for instance and those deescalation is ended up in the regime so in a way turkey showed its actions, with that regime. Turkey played a key role, ending the Syrian Opposition, fighting against the regime in its fight against the kurds. And aleppo fell in late 2016. That tells you the transformation and shifting turkish priorities in syria. The final shift came recently. Turkey held local elections. President erdogan and his party lost all major cities in turkey including istanbul which is the Financial Capital of the country and that is a huge blow to his 17 year rule. Particularly those cities are very important and cities they make up 70 of the countrys gdp and he came to power. The key reasons for his loss in the elections in the downturn and 3. 6 million Syrian Refugees. There is a growing domestic nationalist backlash against Syrian Refugees so now his number one priority is creating a safe zone on turkeys southern border inside syria to send back Syrian Refugees. He laid out the plan at the General Assembly meeting in new york in september so he talked about a 30 km deep, 480 km wide safe zone that is now controlled by uss kurdish allies. He wants to make sure he is going to build 200,000 homes, schools, hospitals, football fields and this in his mind is a perfect solution to his problems. He will get millions that would also generate revenue for the countrys troubled economy and it will cost 27 billion. He is seeking European International funding. That is the plan now and number one and number 2 priority still containing kurdish nationalism. By creating that zone which is offlimits to the Syrian Kurdish militia he will create a buffer zone and prevent kurdish efforts in the region. Toppling the regime seems to have been pushed off the list altogether. In that meeting between iran, russia and turkey recently which was held in angora president rouhani was telling the world that International Efforts to topple the asad regime had failed and president erdogan setback and 8 the treats. I think that picture was a clear reminder of transformation of turkish priorities in syria. The final thing i want to mention is that a conflict in syria played the most Important Role in the countrys domestic and foreign policies. Turkey changed and transformed the conflict in syria but was also transformed by the conflict in syria and moving forward if you want to understand what is next step is going to be you have to look at his domestic power struggle and he is at his most vulnerable, that will mean he will do anything no matter how risky, the turkish troops are on the border and they are talking military incursion. American partners and allies are warning about risk. It is a risky operation yet donald trump might have given the green light, but still you have a congress that is quite pissed and ready to punish erdogan for several other reasons and sanctions have been on the table but donald trump has been working hard to convince congressional leaders to hold up on sanctions saying turkey is an important nato ally but if turkey does that, moves militarily, it will be difficult for donald trump to stand by erdogan. We might see a round of new sanctions. It is risky to hurt american strategy in syria. Turkey is not capable of an effective fight against isis. It cannot there are 60,000 detainees being held in isis camps. So it is a risky move. But i think because of the tough situation president erdogan has found himself domestically hes willing to take that risk and in the coming days we will see how it plays out. I just saw today that donald trump tweeted again about turkey, praising turkey and turkish efforts. We dont know. Turkey put all his eggs in trumps basket but looking at the domestic situation he can take the risk because that is i will stop there. Thank you very much. Your overview of turkey Foreign Policy but also your analysis of domestic politics and city in crisis. The second speaker is with the United Institute in london and visiting fellow in warsaw at kings college. So also the center of discussion particularly with us policy, politics with an expert on iran and an active player in the region. Thank you for organizing this conference and having me here. I wanted to dispute the title of the tunnel in the case of iran. In the case of iran we are talking about old country with an old policy. I dont think we can talk about change in iranian Foreign Policy and there are a number of reasons. Im not going to go over all of them. It is born to understand and it came out in the Previous Panel that irans policy by a specific message, very specific principles that characterize the revolution but even more when we had the empowerment of the current Supreme LeaderAyatollah Khomeini and we see this continuing in iranian Foreign Policy and particularly on the iranian Foreign Policy. I think the main principles are standing up to hegemonic powers namely the United States and israel. The idea of a peaceful relationship, the desire to defend the rights of the muslims. We are going to briefly step away from this conference on middle east strategy to bring live coverage of the u. S. Senate. This is a pro forma session that you take less then a few minutes and then we return to love, to the conference. Live coverage of the u. S. Senate here on cspan2. The presiding officer the senate will come to order. The clerk will read a communication to the senate. The clerk washington,d. C. , october 8, 2019. To the senate, under the provisions of l rule 1 of the standing rules of the senate i appoint bill cassidy, a senator is from the state of louisiana, to perform the duties of the chair. Signed chuck grassley, president pro tempore. The presiding officer under the previous order, the senate