[inaudible conversation] were going to get underway. I am richard and my day job at managing partner of an associates. I am also a member of the board of the center for the national interest. Both of these capacities and having spent time at both think tanks, i can tell you quite sincerely the lunches at the center for the National Interests are far better than the atlantic council. [laughter] to top off this excellent lunch, we have a great dessert and that is investor john who at its us today. To talk about the future of ukraine and ukraine and russia relations, we really couldnt have a better speaker. To address this issue. John at not only served as the Us Ambassador to ukraine, but as followed ukraine related issue for many years in his current capacity running his program, European Program at the atlantic council. Having a real indepth understanding or lets call it Eastern European and Central Asian affairs having not only served in ukraine but also in pakistan if im not mistaken. He told me that one of his first jobs after leading the state department was running a program called dealing its complex problems at the National Convention in university and i think actually the Us State Department trained you for dealing its complex problems. In creating them. [laughter] that went out further ado im going asked john to begin and as at traditionally the case, you should move that this at being filmed by cspan2 so we are not following rules we are obviously on the record. Thank you very much and think you for the invitation to come here. Also we will talk about what it means for roque ukrainian russian ukrainian relations. The first thing to understand about president linsky at that he won for reasons having nothing to do its Foreign Policy. The people of ukraine, were demonstrating in coals 18 months ago. Maybe 24 months ago. They wanted a new phase in political reit leadership. The polls were able showed in early 2018 that over 40 percent of the population in fact the priority wanted none of the above. The bubble being wellknown political figures. That is because of the general dissatisfaction its the state of affairs. Not so much of the russian war. But the estate of Domestic Affairs which at consequence of two things. First of course, at the static the social Economic System that is characterized in ukraine for the 30 years. And especially the problem corruption. But also this qualifies the first. I just made, which at that some serious changes were made positive changes, and at people who move more about transitions from command to economies will tell you we do do the right things, its the theory of standard of living takes a hit. The phone ukraine, wasnt harvester of reflective assignment that is been existing for certainly several years. So the ski did not win an outright victory in the president ial elections. In the wake of the russian seizure and in the east. But he did pick up a large probably in the mid 40s, and of course he won 72 to 73 percent in second round. More importantly, and this at critical understanding of what may or may not be possible to go forward domestically and ukraine, he won in the other elections last month. So the first time the ukrainians posted in history, you have one party which at now one outright majority. He can roll its that party by himself and my guess at that is whats going to happen. There are at least one of the parties which should be in natural partner, at not clear if hes going to want to make that partnership. They can probably get the support that went out the partnership. The point that hes got going at maybe 54 or more percent and that is very important. What that says to anyone looking at ukraine, including to the training in public which joseph voted these guys in, the changes that they want are within his grasp. If he seeks to make those changes. So who at linsky. Anyone who does politics knows that if they are trying to figure out where a country at going, you start its the leadership. He at a highly successful comedian, and businessman. He at quite smart. Ive only met him once. He met him in february. This was before he had turned his attention to issues its president. I mentioned that investors who saw him at that time, were underwhelmed about his command of issues, saw him six weeks later his and they were equally impressed. The guy at very smart. I think it at safe to say that up until the time actually up until some. After he decides to run for the presidency, he wasnt paying great detailed attention to Major Political and economic issues. But of course, he wasnt smart ukrainian growing up in the ukraine and he was absorbing this. I think probably most of you move he came from and east of ukraine. We all move about the differences and parts of the population in ukraine between east and west. I think those differences are often exaggerated. In the differences are closing but they are nonetheless not irrelevant. He at jewish dissent. He speaks russian as well. In fact, hes had to brush up on his ukrainian wasnt became clear he had a shot at becoming president. Im told he at much better now he was in january. Coming from the east, he observed certain attitudes which have prompted southern moscow to think he might be a fairly voice in ukraine. I dont think he has the passion for a couple of issues which are somewhat controversial in ukraine. The passion for example that the other president had in one of those being language question and the other being the question of the orthodox church. Another important art of his biography, which we need to understand to figure out who he at and where he at going, he at a young man. Portugal might be 50, the lewinsky at like 41. So essentially, the soviet experience at not something he truly felt. College in soviet ukraine. Not so much linsky. That means that some things which might have seemed reasonable, for oceangoing not necessarily positive and not turning over reforming ukraine, are not normal and not natural for linsky. Part of his growing up in these, i think may explain why we see some talk from him as candidate as president elect, and as president about ending the war in gun boss via negotiations its moscow. Not but a single was against that, but zielinski truly put more emphasis on that. That i think reflects his background. Its also something that he highlighted as a candidate he he did talk about it though. We have seen him as president take steps consistent its such statements. But before i get to that, lemme just digress a little bit. Ukraine and more broadly. It will help explain where he and the country are going. You might say to generalize a little certification. Ukraines Foreign Policy orientation over the past 30 years, has varied into options. The one hand, theres a concept of synthetic concept where ukraine at somewhere between russia on the one side, and United States on the other. President who to talk about multi connector at in. That certainly wasnt policy. The alternative to that, has been a western orientation. We still have that. Obviously we saw that its the guy. Linsky his background would put him somewhere in between rose to alternatives. I said his background. You can argue that as a wouldbe leader, and at the leader he at taken some steps which also put him somewhere in the middle of those two possibilities. More in the western orientation site. He has offered three concessions. In his brief. On the public stage. He talked about to referendum. One relations its russia, the other on joining nato. Which can be seen as something positive from the standpoint of the convoy. Those two referenda, were not considered positively by ukrainian political society. To lindsay the comedian, the businessman, whose success at based substantially on the ability to feel his relevance. You gotta read your audience as a politician hes right his country, he saw that reaction and those to referendum. Very important to recognize that before they faded, there was no or nothing out of moscow. Those are two things he knew. The third, at morrison. Actually more important. In the war in the east, there at largely been a pardoning separation between the russian occupied territories and the rest of ukraine. On the ukrainian side, this was the result of the activity of people who are associated its a tougher line its russia. So that the party would selfdestruct which was based in the beef and were quite active in hardening the context of the line of contact, and done boss. Spring of 2016 possibly. There was talk in the diplomatic gyrations around the boss for over a year about somehow improving access across the line of contact. Jacob did not want to go there. Dress the ra has. He said, yes, i am open to making the border crossings. The light of contact crossings. Zero reaction. Also, you have the two important facts that to this day, prison has not congratulated to linsky on his victory and more important than that, putin sends a little provocations like his way when he was president elect its passport game and en masse. The same game the criminalist played in all of the present conflicts. So linsky at extended in hand and at gotten nothing back. And zielinski again, he at the guy who learns from his experiences. Last. Here, which at a little bit off of this specific team, at this rate some people more than some people, were concerned as president was he was emerging where the candidate was emergi emerging, destined to win the presidency that he would be the longterm key bg versus the naive. So linsky shows in the passport thing, that he was not going to be an easy guy up against. What he said hey guys take the passport, to a live repressive society that we have no control over your leadership. Put neurons he likes those comical expressions going back to catching him in the outhouses. Referring to my friend stephen piper. Prudence been silent. So linsky had won that battle. Thats a strength. A world comic. Thats actually unfair. The risky mirror class comic. So he at not going to be so easy for the kremlin to manage. They make it one more. This, intention big time. Actually two weeks ago. That ukrainian sees the russian tanker involved kremlin tackle ships. That was a gutsy move. Gutsy but not stupid. He kept the tanker and he released the sailors. I think the kremlin doesnt move what to make of the sky. In my own interactions its russians underscore that. In fact the kremlin reaction to the ships at been pretty mild. So thats the linsky. What happens its the work. For me to address this, i need to explain to you my own peculiarities. Figuring what i say in context. I think that ukraine said the upper work upperhand in the bus. The reason for that is the following. This at a war of the kremlin against ukrainian people. I put it that way because the ukrainian people by a large majority understand the moscow at conducting more and done boss and the support their country his policy. Government his policy of resisting from an aggression. We move the russian people want no part of this war. We move the putin continues the fiction of the russian army at not in ukraine. That this war at not jammed up by carmen offers. Peoples republic to butter diet, at the president. Not to mention the officers fighting a war right now. And of course he hides russian casualties from the russian people. So this at a major vulnerability to the bone. I think ukraine has the upper hand. To because they got adequate i dont think sufficient to adequate support from the west. The sanctions are held for five years was by pontifications of the contrary. It just been extension of the sanctions just move from six months to a year. Then open the champagne after the decision by parliamentary and castle of europe. Thought joining things that were required. What i expect will be a coming hit on rushing to from washington, will be a bigger deal still. Although that is still very much in play. The second. , as long as that support remains, this at a major problem for the, and the sanctions because the russian economy about 1 percent of gdp. Not insignificant. Especially given the fact their Economic Growth at still in liberty. There is a third. Here. Thats right, we reached President Trump the supply of lethal weapons back in december of 2017, and i think youll probably see more stuff heading ukraine his way. So i think to use an old frame will price the forces are on the side of the ukrainians. If you watch carefully, kremlin activities and the moscow political conversation about the war, over the past several years, you see the following. The negotiations are an ossified largely irrelevant process. Not one interesting idea has come from the russian side in those talks. Many interesting ideas more than some. They happen to periods of real negotiations of the done boss. The first which both took six months. The first one was from january of 2016, until june of that year. Mr. Kopp, interesting things, and its worth recalling what at going on at that time. Because the kremlin his forces engaged in syria, since such troubles emerged in 2011. In big time, in the fall of 2015. Which was the First Time Since the crisis of the meal. That ukraine was bumped off the first line in russian media. Thoughtful people in moscow, had recognized what i just explain to you about the correlation of forces in ukraine. He began to see some talk in russia its a little bit of flexibility, and in these negotiations began. Interesting things were set on both sides of the socks. So why do they stop in june of 2016. I think there are two reasons. One, at of course put in was never really comfortable its this. But then is it too, more importantly for the timing, its the emergence of that time donald trump as republican nominee. I can tell you when we visited, we felt the russians were very much hyperbolic terms which was minor interaction its russian think tank are starting in 2015 a fall. Watching the media that they like talk. Theres no question that the leadership was hoping that trump would win. They were hoping for a better deal via the United States on ukraine. So once again, the negotiations switch back to and nothing happened. Trump wins. Im going to give you one of my Little Secrets to understanding whats going on in moscow. That is to follow the writings of the tribe. Very interesting guy. Ill digress on this you understand why. Ill leave it for now. Trent and who understand he always wants to be within the bubble. Acceptable to the truman bubble but only source the edge of the bubble pushing moscow in directions that probably good for russia and for better relations between the rest in russia. Thats how i would characterize him. He wrote an article right after trump one basically staying he do whatever he was in ukraine. Which demonstrated its the russians thought they would get its trump. It didnt turn out that way as well move. And again for thoughtful russians pondering us sanctions policy, pondering what happened its elsie garrick, the summit, and post helsinki, developments recognized that trump was not the guy theyd helped. Trying then began the Second Period of negotiations circle at this time. By the way, invite late fall of 2017, really interesting things were being written by russian think tanks. Russia can live its ukraine nato. In the think takers to offer very serious ideas about an international presidency. As a vehicle for ending the war. In fact if you can establish a annexes summit in which russians lose control of the border, the ability to send soldiers and officers and weapons and such. Allow six to 12 months for an International Force to be in charge, you could have a real action. That could be if they savor. Forum to get the heck out of denmark. So these negotiations resumed. Rather in a Different Forum but they only lasted until the summer. The summer of 2018. I cant prove this but i think mr. Pritchett got nervous and ideas floated and said lets wait and see what happens in the elections. The ukrainian elections. So once again at not turned out to be more acceptable forum. I think he has been a political opportunists in ukraine for 20 plus years and putin at also the godfather of the children. So very important relationship in the Orthodox Christian world. I think its safe to say that to shoot the kremlin his favorite ukrainian guy the guy they would love to see to enforce this policy and hes also one of the most figures in ukraine. Heres the bottom line, they had the elections, putin was hoping to be Political Forces in ukraine and be able to lead to serious ukrainian concessions. Foreign policy. Patent hap hasnt happened. Instead he at voted for a guy who at essentially endorsing western Foreign Policy. So actually the victory at a disaster. For the imperialists in moscow. Smart people in moscow understand that. I think some of the smart people are importance in our circle. They dont include the right man himself. So at some. , carmen will make our decision to get out. 1214 months are now or eight to ten years. I dont know. Thank you. Sumac will there is a difference obviously. [laughter]. Thank you john though you gave us a lot to chew on. Let me sort of think about what they like to raise its you in terms of questions and comments. Let me get the ball rolling by describing at least the or commenting on how you evicted this emerging relationship between who and lewinsky you seem to suggest that as you said, food and has hasnt congratulated linsky and he also seemed to suggest that linsky has in a couple of overtures that putin really hasnt responded to. I at least move that they have had two conversations. And also had hurt, through lets say well informed american sources that linsky has at least indicated that he at prepared to take a different approach to these ossified minced agreements. Actually look hard and Holding Elections in the east. If he were to take that step, if he were to say begin to actually implement ukrainian requiremen requirements. What would be in your judgment the russian reaction there. Its a just pocket that concession and stand back. So far, weve seen no Russian Movement under the agreement. We seen some but not a great deal of ukrainian movement. The key. At going to sides interpret the most controversial provision of the menstrual agreement. Not just the elections, but the influence or lack of influe