Cspan. Org. We take you back live to a forum on china relations. A look at chinas relationship with china and hong kong. The host of this event. Live coverage on cspan two. Next we will hear from founding faculty member of Global Political economy at the Chinese University of hong kong. The author of taiwan china dilemma. Multiple interest in the economic policy. Frequently if there is chinese media. Finally, we will hear from doctor victoria who is the professor of Political Science at the university of notre dame. Early modern europe. Maintains hong kong from the movement to the antiextradition protest. Written on a democracy unit for foreign affairs. I ask all of our witnesses to keep your comments to seven minutes so we can ask lots of questions which we all are very good at. We will start with you. Other members of the commission, thank you so much for the invitation today to contribute to your deliberations the implications for the United States. As you all know, this year marks the fourth year between china and taiwan. This began with the decision to expand the Communication Channels after an auger rated in 2016. Since then we have seen china employ military tactics including poaching several taiwan diplomatic partners. More radically reducing the number of mainland tourists and ramping up of military exercises and information operation. In a response to this mounting pressure we have seen tougher rhetoric. Defending the democracy and an attempt to secure greater support from the International Community while at the same time maintaining a policy of securing the status quo. This past january we saw major speech. The First Comprehensive speech and taiwan since taking office. Emphasizing unification under one country is inevitable. He reiterated that china could use force to achieve its goal. A runup now to the january 11, 2020 election. It is my view that china is unlikely to undertake significant under economic actions against taiwan in this period. They know quite well that anything really remarkable could backfire and help and the dep forcing majority for getting reelected retaining the majority i think it is also unlikely that china will completely take a handsoff approach. We will see continued military pressure. Weve already seen one on march march 31. We could see that become a new normal, but i dont think that that would happen until after the election. We will continue to see flights around the island and measures to constrain the participation in the International Community. In the near term, i think the biggest threat is in the form of chinese interference. We will see this in the runup to the election. I am still not sure we understand completely what the degree of interference was in the 2016 election or or the 2018 local election. Interference can take many forms. This campaigns social media into an entire administration. Media manipulation for support. Even local level efforts. Financial support that goes through temples. To boost supporters and turn out for candidates. I think it is important and im glad the commission has asked me to talk about the red media in taiwan. A term highlighting Chinese Communist party of taiwans media organization. This has resulted in pro china coverage. Selfcensorship and promotion of specific candidates that are preferred. It is my view the evidence abounds of direct and indirect intrusion into various media outlets. There has been some very good reporting that demonstrates this has actually been regular payments to taiwan media groups by the office in china for positive reporting about china. Making no secret about the fact. Spreading the communist partys messages and taiwan. We saw the media summit earlier this year. Telling taiwan media representatives to achieve peaceful unification and carry out one country, two systems systems. The party depends on its friends. Remembered i history once unification occurs. I will leave it to others to talk about the protests in hong kong. They are having a major impact on hong kong. One of the activist in taiwan this week trying to promote more support for demonstrations and protests in taiwan. Not just hong kong. Besides that beijing is backing away from its pledge to preserve the economy and hong kong has really stirred fears among people in taiwan about their own future. A lot of anxiety about the potential application one country, two systems to taiwan. Even supporters who favor better relations with Mainland China. We even heard the candidate say over his dead body one country two systems would be implemented in taiwan. In the event we end up with violence in hong kong of any kind, it will have a deep and enduring impact on taiwan and its relationship with china. I think that goes without saying. They are not heading towards a crisis. I think she is not likely to take radical proindependent measures that could provoke a military response. Certainly adopt some measures. I do not think the current policy across the street simply because of the reelection of the dpp. Bolstered if they win the majority in the legislative political read lock. Even if they control, i think the costbenefit calculus is simply squeezing taiwan. I think it is more favorable than going to war. An independent candidate, we may see more emerge by the 17th. It would be a period of improvement. I think the worries by the people, the majority of the citizens about getting too close would probably constrain candidate in taiwan from launching political talks are taking other measures that could provoke a domestic crisis. My view is a Tipping Point might come later. Five or 10 years. If the chinese do not get what they want. Perhaps more impatient. Perhaps the pla makes an assessment that they can prevail against the u. S. In a taiwan conflict and we could perhaps see a miscalculation by beijing. They may believe that there is a window of opportunity to resolve the taiwan problem once and for all. Ive laid out a few specific policy recommendations for the u. S. One is to assist taiwan and its efforts to counter interference. We have heard some u. S. Officials talk about that. I have not heard much detail. It would be great to hear more detail about what theyre doing and seeing if its enough. Compelling social Media Companies to notify users when they are interacting with accounts. Suspected to be dealing with it if they are fallen state actors. Social media having easy ways to report. Taiwan was doing a little bit by itself. This is a larger problem. I am sure somebody is talk today about the need to have a Free Trade Agreement with taiwan economic and political and security. These are all really interlinked. The one area that i think this administration has fallen short is its absence of closer ties with taiwan. We have two bills that stand before congress. Countering the Chinese Government and the political influence operations act and the taiwan insurance act of 2019. Passage of those would be very important. Take you so much again for this opportunity. Thank you. Doctor lynn. I want to thank the commission and the staff for an opportunity to address the critical issue of chinas relations with china and hong kong. Today, more more than ever, the faith of china and hong kong are tied together. A gap has never been wider. Focusing on the dilemmas that china poses for taiwan and hong kong and the implications for the United States. First, high income trap. Slow growth, stagnating wages, demographic decline, high decline, high youth unemployment and widening inequalities. These issues are hard to resolve for any high income economies just like for japan. For taiwan, further complicated by a debate over whether china has a way out of this trap. Many believe that relying on china is a viable solution given the size and potential of that market. Others worry that further expanding economic ties with china will compromise the distinctive identity and values including democracy and freedom. The previous government try to simulate growth by integrating taiwan more closely with china. However, overdependence actually failed to produce higher growth. Led to greater inequality in a serious political backlash which led to the election of the president. Since then, 2016, the administration has been trying to economically diversify away from china tiered trade and investment has continued to rise investment has fallen, but not genetically. The dilemma has intensified tiered in order to increase support for unification. Including allowing them to live and work in china with the same treatment as citizens. In response, roughly half a million went to work in china last year forming a brain drain. On the other hand, restriction from tourism as a tool. Reducing by an estimated 80 by the end of this year. This is in addition to sharp power to a friendly media in Civil Society organization domestic politics which the doctor just talked about. It will be the highest among high income economies in asia. An implement is that a 19point low. The diversification policies have been assisted by the rising cost of manufacturing in china and the increased tariffs the u. S. Is imposed on your tariffs. In four months taiwanese will choose between populist candidate who sees china as the solution to taiwans high income trap and in a Democratic Progressive Party incumbent will prioritize the diversification away from china to strengthen taiwan. Many taiwanese fear that reelected president [inaudible] will be detrimental to relations with china into the economic prospects. Others believe that electing [inaudible] will threaten taiwans identity. Hong kong faces a similar china dilemma. With important implications for taiwan. As a resident of hong kong since 1992 i have seen the citys distinctive identity being eroded. Hong kong has thrived with the economic drives but the high income traffic is much worse than taiwans in terms of inequality and on affordability. Like the protest against immigration with china in 2014 recent protests in hong kong are beyond economics and are focused on defending core values such as freedom and democracy. Effective Solutions Must provide ways for hong kong to have a greater voice in the future of their city. It is an International Financial center for the world for china but more importantly it is home to 7 Million People who have only a limited role in its government. In both places surveys show dwindling support for beijings preferred political outcomes. Moreover, the parallels between hong kong and taiwan are growing. Many hong kong growers see democratic taiwan is the model for the future and the mainland taiwanese fear what the hong kong [inaudible] it has become completely on acceptable for taiwan under the one country to system. Half million Young Taiwanese will cast their votes for the first time in 2020 and if you call themselves chinese. Theyre both could have a Significant Impact on the outcome of the election. Finally, what does this mean for the United States. Taiwan is a litmus test for american ability to uphold free markets and Democratic Institutions against chinas presentation of alternative systems. The United States should help taiwanese defend the values of democracy and social justice to have them become important parts of their identity and help taiwan overcome the challenges of the high income traps so that china does not appear the soul solution. To that end, the United States was increased its appeal to trade in the Investment Partner for taiwanese who may feel they have no choice but to work more closely with china. Hong kong is also a canary in the coal mines. It suggests chinas inability to accept diversity of values within its borders. The United States was continue to closely monitor the situation and required by the Hong Kong Policy act. The sanctions are applied they should be carefully targeted so not to add to the hardship already faced by ordinary hong kong people. Finally, United States must demonstrate the attractiveness of market economies and Democratic Institutions. Having taught in charlottesville, beijing and taipei all in the last 18 months and engage in nonprofit and entrepreneurship i believe the United States should encourage more educational and professional exchanges with both places especially with the Younger Generation to further this end. In conclusion, hong kongs economy is being diluted every day and the democracy is friend not only by its own shortcomings but also by chinese efforts to undermine it. How well the United States response to the challenge facing taiwan will be an indicator of americas commitment to exercise leadership and defending shared values. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much for being the voice of hong kong. The hong kong situation is both academic and personal. They been raising the issue of chinese recognizing that the americans suddenly have woken up to chinas increasingly aggressive trade in security policies. International service have paid attention to making hong kong relations over the years and earlier hong kong reckoning could lead to a early chinese reckoning. Beijing is completely rogue and the promise of people with a high degree of autonomy with the two systems model and written in black and white is a sign of decoration in the hong kong basic log. Many people argue that while in hong kong [inaudible] tender mind like fashion. This morning my friend testified that chinas approach to hong kong has remained soft and moderate but i disagree. I think we should not define it narrowly by gauging or rolling out the epr a. I think this view detracts from abusing his controlled hong kong through nonmilitary [inaudible] in order to quell the protests beijing has had to put out police without rolling the chinese [inaudible] and they also use the Hong Kong Government to take [inaudible] without formally declaring an emergency. They have wielded less visible in without creating bad optics. U. S. Congress and the u. S. Government should broaden monitoring efforts from chinese Troop Deployment so they need repressive measures already applied in hong kong. The protest started with the call to withdraw the extradition bill which would have required hong kong to turn over key offenders to Mainland China. The chief executive suspended the bill on june 15 and she refused for 2. 5 months to withdraw the bill until early this morning. This concession is too little, too late. For two and half months in refusing to address the protesters demands the authorities have relied on hong kongs pleas to repress the escalating protests and this policy has corrupted what used to be asias finest police into another mainland force. When i was a little girl every time we went out my mom would tell me if you get separated from mommy, go ask a police and he or she will help you. That was the level of trust that what happens today . The police would randomly beat up people and weve seen that across global tv. Its not even obvious who the police really answer to today. When the chiefs secretary secondincommand apologized about Police Actions he was publicly known what to make it even clear that its a staging ruling from behind the scenes the Central GovernmentHong Kong Affairs office [inaudible] the Family Support goes police and judicial authorities in doing their job. In beijing they stepped up the ite terror campaign. Recent testimony chronicles repressive measures up to september 2 and the rest of my oral testimony will highlight a few points. The first point is a very funny crackdown led by the Hong Kong Police. The police have known what restrict the freedoms to protest by refusing to issue a note objection notice is a permit. This technically renders many protests unlawful. Second, the police have arrested more than 1000 and 100 people since issuing charlie many with not just Unlawful Assembly but for serious crimes such as writing, assaulting the police and possessing weapons. Some of those weapons include for example, laser pens and first aid workers in possession of scissors. The Police Routinely hit protesters with batons and pepper gas, beanbag, rubber bullets. The first buddy sunday happened on august 11 and the more bloodier rest have become complacent. The Human Rights Office have accused the local police of using crowd control weapons in ways that are prohibited by international standards. What is not visible to report with bystanders is even more disturbing. Many of the detained have been denied access to lawyers for many hours and stopped from contesting their families for a long time and some of them were so brutally beaten in Detention Centers that they came out with broken bones and head injuries. We dont know what goes on inside police stations. What is striking to see that a lot of these doctors and nurses have repeatedly stated with the slogan Hong Kong Police attempt to murder hong kong citizens. A nurse recounted how one detainees wrist and xray showed it was connected only by skin. No bones or tendons in full pieces. Medical workers also complain about inhumane rules and pro