Sincerely that the lunches at the center for the National Interests are far better than the atlantic council. [laughing] and to top off this excellent lunch we have a great dessert, that is ambassador john herbst, who is with us today to talk about the future of ukraine and ukrainerussia relations. We really couldnt have a better speaker to address this issue. John has not only served as the u. S. Ambassador to ukraine, but has followed ukraine, the ukraine related issue for many years in his current capacity running this program as, European Program at the atlantic council. And having a real indepth understanding for, lets call it Eastern European and Central Asian affairs, having that only serve in ukraine but also uzbekistan, if im not mistaken. And he told me that i think what his first jobs after leaving the state department was running a program called dealing with complex problems at the National Defense university. And if it actually the u. S. State department trained you for dealing with complex problems, and creating them. [laughing] so without further ado im going to ask john to begin. And as is traditionally the case, you should know that this is being filmed by cspan, so we are not following we are on the record. Rick, thank you very much and richard, thank you for the invitation to come here. Also will talk about zelensky, what that means for ukraine and russianukrainian relations. The first thing to understand about president zelensky is that he won for reasons having nothing to do with Foreign Policy. The people of ukraine were demonstrating in polls 18 months ago, maybe 24 months ago that they wanted a new face in political leadership. Polls rectally showed in early 2018th that over 40 of the population, in fact, a plurality wanted none of the above. The above being all wellknown political figures. Thats because of a general dissatisfaction with the state of affairs, not so much of the russian war in donbass, but the state of domestic affairs, which is i say a consequence of two things. First of course is the static of socioeconomic system that is characterized ukraine for the 30 years since independence. And especially the problem of corruption. But also, this qualifies the first point i just made, which is that some serious changes were made, positive changes, and as people who know more about transitions from command economies can tell you that i, when you do the right things, visavis with the standard of living takes a hit. So the vote in ukraine which zelensky was a harvester of, reflected a sentiment that is an existing for several years. Zelensky did not win an outright victory in the person of the president ial elections. But he did pick up at large, very large rally in the mid40s and, of course, he won 72, 73 actually in the second round. More importantly, and this is, this is critical fronts and what may or may not be possible Going Forward in ukraine. Domestically. He won a resounding victory last month. And so the first time in ukraines postindependence history you have one party which has an outright majority. He can rule with that party by himself, and my guess thats whats going to happen. There are at least at least one of a party which should be a natural partner. Its not clear if zelensky will want to make that partnership. He can probably get the support even without the partnership. But the point is hes got 53, 54, four, maybe more than that, and thats very, very important. What that says to him when looking at ukraine, including ukrainian public which just voted these guys in, the changes they want are within his grasp if he seeks to make those changes. Okay. So who is zelensky x anyone who does politics knows if youre trying to figure out what the country is going to start with the leadership. He is a highly successful comedian and businessman. Hes quite smart. Ive only been once. I met him in february before he had turned his attention to understand the issues he used to face as president. And i can mention that ambassadors, western abbasid who sign at the time and were underwhelmed about his command of issues saw him six weeks later and there were deeply impressed. The guy is smart. The guy is smart. I think its safe to say that up until the time, actually up until some point after he decided to run for the presidency he wasnt paying great detailed attention to Major Political and economic issues. But, of course, he was a smart ukrainian growing up in ukraine and he was absorbing this. And i think probably most of you know he came from eastern ukraine. We all know about the differences in parts of the population in ukraine between east and west. I think those differences are often exaggerated and the differences are closing that they are nonetheless not irrelevant. And hes jewish dissent. Ukrainian and he speaks russian. And, in fact, hes had said toh up on his ukrainian. What sadiq khan there once it became clear he had a shot at becoming president. But coming from the east he observed certain attitudes which have prompted southern moscow to think he might be a friendly voice in ukraine for them to deal with. And i dont think he has the passion for a couple of issues, which are somewhat controversial in ukraine, the passion that for example, president poroshenko had. One of those being the language question and the other being the question of the orthodox church. But another important part of his biography which we need to understand to figure out who he is and where hes going is hes again man. And poroshenko isnt an old guy. Poroshenko might be 50 but zelensky is what, 41 . So essentially the soviet experience is that something he truly felt. Whereas poroshenko, he went to college in soviet ukraine or moldova in fact. Not so much zelensky. And that means some things which might have seemed reasonable for poroshenko and things which are not necessarily positive, about turning over, to reform in ukraine, are not normal, not natural for zelensky. Part of his growing up in the east, i think makes explain why we seen some talk from him as a candidate, as president elect, and as president about ending the war in donbass via negotiations with moscow. Not that poroshenko was against that, but zelensky fully put more emphasis on it. And that i think reflects his background. And its also something, but its not something he highlighted as a candidate. But he talked about it. And weve seen him as president take steps, consistent with such statements. But before i get to that, let me just digress a little bit to talk about ukraine and Foreign Policy more broadly. Sleep so you put zelensky in the contest which will help explain or he and the country are going here context. You might say, this this is a f a supplication, that ukraines Foreign Policy orientation over the past 30 years has two options. On the one hand, theres a concept of multivector concept where ukraine is somewhere in between russia on the one side, the eu and the United States on the other. And they used to talk about multivector risen and that was certainly the policy of poroshenko. The alternative to that has been a prowestern orientation, and we saw that with poroshenko. Zelensky is background would put him i would say somewhere in between those two alternatives. As i said, his background. And you can argue that as a wouldbe leader, and as the leader, he has taken some steps which also put in some were in the middle of those two possibilities, albeit more on the westward orientation side. He has offered the kremlin three concessions in his brief period on public stage. He talked about two referenda, one on relations with russia, the other on joining nato. Which could be seen as something positive from the standpoint of the kremlin. Those two referenda were not considered positively you might say by ukrainian political society. And zelensky, the comedian, the businessman, whose success is based substantially on the ability to feel his relevance, as a comedian you have to reach your audience, as a politician his country. He saw that reaction. And those two referendum just faded. But its important to recognize that before they faded, there was nothing out of moscow would suggest hes of interest to them. So those are two things he did. The third is more recent, and actually more important. In the war in the east, theres largely been a hardening separation between the russian occupied territories and the rest of ukraine. And on the ukrainian side, this was the result of the activity of people who are associate with a tougher line with russia. So the party which self obstructed, they were quite active in hardening the contacts across the line of contact in donbass, was it Three Springs ago . I think the spring of 2017 or 2016. There was talk in the diplomatic gyrations around donbass for over a year about somehow improving access across the line of contact, and poroshenko did not want to go there. Zelensky already has. He said yes, im open to making the Border Crossing a line of contact crossing work. Zero reaction from the kremlin. Zero reaction from the kremlin. Also, also you had the two two important facts that to this day putin has not congratulated zelensky on his victory here and more important than that, putin sends a little provocation zelenskys way when he is president elect with the passport game in donbass, the same game the kremlin has played in all the frozen conflicts. The so zelensky has extended a hand and he has gotten nothing back. And zelensky again come hes a guy who learns from his experience. Last month year we shall get off this specific theme, which is this, some people, more than some people, were concerned as president zelensky was emerging or as candid zelensky as this juggernaut destined to win the presidency, that it would be putins patsy, right . Longterm kgb versus the naive. Well, zelensky showed in the passport thing that he was not going to be an easy guy for putin commenced. Because zelensky a century but putin on it were in when he said hey, guys, take the passport. Thats a passport to life of repression repressive society. We have no control over leadership. And putin who loves to have the last word, he loves those colorful phrases, putin has been silent. Zelensky had won that battle. Because thats zelenskys strength. Ukraine class comic. Thats actually unfair. Ill roski near class comic. [inaudible] hes not going to be so easy for the kremlin to manage. And let me make it one more point. This cant , by attention big t. Actually two weeks ago. That the ukraine sees the russian tanker involved in the kremlin attacking ships. That was a gutsy move. That was a gutsy move. But gutsy but not stupid. Because he kept the tanker. He released the sailors, and i think the kremlin doesnt know what to make of this guy. And my own interactions with russia on various tv programs i think underscore that. And, in fact, the criminal reaction to the ship seized has been pretty mild, pretty mild. Okay now, so thats zelensky. What happens with the war, right . For me to address this i knew to explain to you my own peculiarities. So you can read what i say in context. I think that ukraine has the upper hand in donbass. The reason for that is the following. This this is a war of equipment against the ukrainian people. I put it that way because the ukrainian people by a large majority understand that moscow is conducting a war in donbass, and they support their countries policy, their governments policy of resisting kremlin aggression. We know the russian people want no part of this worker numerous polls have said that. We know that putin continues saying russian officers are not in ukraine, that this war is not ginned up by kremlin operatives. [inaudible] not to mention the thousands of officers fighting a war right now. And, of course, he hides russian casualties from the russian people. This is a major vulnerability for the crew would. I think ukraine has the upper hand, one come for that. Two, because it got adequate i dont think sufficient but adequate support from the west. The sanctions are in place. They have held five years despite numerous prognostications to the contrary. They have just been come the extension of sanctions just moved from six months to a year. I know the kremlin had open the champagne after the decision by the parliamentary assemble council of europe to let them back without them doing anything that was required. But extension of sanctions is a bigger deal. But i expect will be a common hit on nord stream two from washington will be a bigger deal still. Although that is still very much at play. So thats the second point. As long as that support remains, this is a major problem for the club. So sanctions cost the russian economy about 1 of gdp a year. Not insignificant especially given the fact that Economic Growth is so limited. And theres a third point here. Thats right, i mean, we reached come President Trump reached the supply of lethal weapons back in december 2017 and think youll probably see more stuff heading ukraines way. So i think to some old marxist phrase, the correlation of forces is on the side of ukrainians. If you watch carefully, kremlin activities and the moscow political conversation about war over the last several years, you have seen the following. The minsk negotiations are and ossified, largely irrelevant process. Not one interesting idea has come from the russian side in those talks. I wont say many interesting ideas come from the ukrainian side, but more than some. There have been two periods of real negotiations of the donbass conflict. The first, the first one was from january of 2016 until june of that year. Interesting things were said. Its worth recalling what is going on at that time. Because the kremlin which of course has been engaged in syria since assads troubles emerged in 2011 went in big time in the fall of 2015. Which was the First Time Since the crisis, since the seizure of crimea, that ukraine was bumped off the first line in russian media. And thoughtful people in moscow had recognized what i just explain to you about the correlation of forces in ukraine. And you begin to see some talk in a think Tank Community russia reflecting a little bit of flexibility, just a little bit, and then these negotiations began. And interesting things were said on both sides in those talks. So why did it stop in june 2016 . I think there are two reasons. One is of course divorce. Putin was never really comfortable with this but then, two, and more important for the time was the emergence of the time of donald trump as republican nominee. And i can tell you when we visited, the whole question trump and rush have been very much discussed and generally hyperbolic terms, but just from my interaction with russian think tankers starting in the fall of 2015 and watching the russian media, it is clear they like trump. So theres some question that the russian leadership was hoping it trump were to win, not that they expected it in the sum of 2016, they were hoping for a better deal visavis the United States on ukraine. Once again, once again the negotiations switched back to minsk. Nothing happened. Trump wins. And im going to give you one of my little secret for understand whats going on in moscow. And thats to follow the writings of dimitri, a very interesting guy. Ill digress on this speed is not too much. Ill just leave it for now. Trenton, he always wants to be within the bubble, the acceptable to kremlin bubble but always towards the edge of that bubble pushing moscow interactions which are probably good for russia and for better relations between the west and russia. Thats how i would characterize him. He wrote an article right after trump one recently saying russia can do whatever he wants in ukraine. Which demonstrate what the russian stock they would get with trumpet it didnt turn out the way as we all know. And again for thoughtful russians pondering u. S. Sanctions policy, pondering what happened in helsinki in the summit and post helsinki developments, recognize that trump was not the panacea they had hoped. And so then we began the second round of negotiations. And by the way, by late fall of 2017, really interesting thing were being written by russian think tanks. Russia can live with ukraine and nato. Other think tankers began to offer very serious ideas about an International Presence in donbass as a vehicle for ending the war. And, in fact, if you can establish a mechanism in which russians lose control of the border and the ability to send and soldiers, offices, weapons and such and six to 12 months for an International Force to be in charge, you could have real elections and i could be a face safer to get the hell out of donbass. So these negotiations resumed are rather different form but it only lasted until the summer of 18, the summer of 18. And my sense is, i cant prove this, that mr. Putin got nervous about some of the ideas being floated and said lets wait to see what happens with the ukraine elections. So we have now had the ukraine elections. So linsky has not turned out to be a more acceptable form zelensky. He has been a political operative in ukraine for 20 plus years. Putin is also the godfather of one of his children which is very important relationship in the Orthodox Christian world and i think its safe to call victor the kremlin favorite ukraine, the kind of love to see truly enforcing ukraine policy and is also one of the most odious figures in ukraine. Okay, heres the bottom line. It had the election. Who putin was hoping it would lead to serious ukraine concessions on Foreign Policy. Hasnt happened. Instead the east vote for guy is essentially endorsing a westward policy. Zelenskys victory is a disaster for the imperialist in moscow. Smart people in moscow understand that. Some of those smart people in putins in a a circle but they dont include the great man himself. So at some point the kremlin will make our decision to get out. At some point could be 12 to 14 months from now or eight to ten years. I dont know. Thank you. Well, theres a difference. [laughing] thank thank you, john. You gave us a lot to chew on. Let me sort of, as people cant think about what they would like to raise with you in terms of questions and comments, let me get the ball rolling by, you kind describing or at least commenting on how you depicted this emerging relationship between putin and zelensky. You seem to suggest that as you said putin hasnt congratulate zelensky, and you also seem to suggest that zelensky has made a couple of overtures that putin really hasnt respon